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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government
That rhetorical question works the other way round too.
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I'm beginning to wonder if we'll have a repeat of the 1979 vote of confidence where the government loses by a single vote. A shame that one wasn't televised.
What I do not see is how we get from here to there without a general election being called when the government loses a vote of confidence or when its relationship with the DUP breaks down, whether or not the Conservatives have achieved their manifesto commitment to repeal the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act.
The DUP had little to do with it
Any Questions: "Jeremy Corbyn has made common cause with just about every enemy this country has ever had."
A minority Labour government is not going to happen. There are not the numbers for it and the DUP would NEVER put Corbyn in No 10. To them it is an issue of fundamental patriotism. And quite what Heidi Allen has got to do with it I fail to see.
But would the DUP want to put themselves as unreliable partners long term, in order to facilitate Corbyn ?
I'd think that not to be the case. Hence the Tories look to be in till 2022 or whenever they decide to call the election to me (For surely Corbyn would vote for another election).
THIS, the 328 rather than 318 vs 314 arithmetic is the real value of the DUP deal for the Tories, in what is likely to be an unpopular government where some marginal Tory MPs might decide they wish to pursue other hobbies in say 2019.
On the current parliamentary arithmetic, the Labour party would need at least passive support from the SNP to run a minority administration. It would be completely unacceptable for a UK government to be beholden to enemies of the state.
Voters might conclude they may as well vote for the real thing.
But the math doesn't work in this parliament for Labour.
When Labour do deals with the DUP it's to raise living standards.
When Tories do deals with the DUP it's a bung.
Right, got it.
Hitting the reset button on a personal computer clears the memory and forcibly reboots the machine. That is what Nicola Sturgeon failed to do last week when she addressed only the timing of a referendum and further nudged her party, like a wonky PC, into what could be its meltdown.
Sturgeon’s government is in a dismal place right now, and not having the humility to recognise the reality of the consequences of her party’s failings will be at the root of its demise. Yes, the SNP won the Westminster election, but it lost the campaign, and with it went more than just the 21 MPs and the scalps of totemic figures like Alex Salmond. It has lost momentum, and after three successive elections that evidence a trajectory of down, gone too is that spirit of reinvention, of a seemingly inexhaustible ability to pick itself up and shake itself down.
And worse, Sturgeon, a giant of a politician, appears shrunken, cut down to size, reduced to name calling and defensively sniping from the sides. And it isn’t worthy.
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/editors-note/snp-dismal-place-right-now
3rd in Isle of Wight still, but now behind Labour. Over 25,000 votes behind the Tories.
4th now in Norwich South - and completely out the running.
3rd in Bristol West, and over 37,000 votes behind Labour.
Ex Caroline Lucas, they are pretty much dead in the FPTP waters - their problems just as big as UKIPs. Where on earth do they go from here, the post 2015 landscape looked alot better for them with the possible targets of both Bristol West & Norwich South. But they've been beyond humiliated in both of those.
It's quite simple to see what Don Brind meant, that Corbyn would apply extra resources to the whole of the UK not just NI.
It would be better if you accepted the point he was making and argue against that rather than deliberately misinterpreting what he was saying.
To Tunnock's Teacakes, Barrhead Travel, Highland Spring we can now add Greggs for boycott:
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/881978560394784769
The political mood now is entirely changed, Hence all the Tories falling over themselves to argue for pay rises for public sector employees.
It also seems very likely to me that the SNP will lose control of Holyrood next time out with the shortfall being too large for the Greens to cover. What will replace them, however, is very much up for grabs.
The DUP worked with Sinn Fein after they renounced violence in order to secure a peaceful future for Northern Ireland and even then they hardly did so with enthusiasm. A bung - for that is what Don Brind is arguing for - wouldn't be enough of an incentive to ignore what the Northern Irish protestants would undoubtedly see as a matter of principle. Nothing like.
That's the trouble with being a terrorist sympathiser. The chances are that sooner or later you'll come up against people who don't sympathise with those terrorists one little bit. And they'll sympathise with you even less.
This started it:
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1392609-businesses-fed-up-with-push-for-second-referendum/
Though I don't know how it spread beyond Highland Spring.....
Apparently to "diss" in Norfolk dialect is to partake of same sex electoral marriage that dates back to the era of rotten boroughs. Male voters from the area would gamble vast quantities of turnips on the best shaped and number of the said vegetable that might fitted up the rear end of a nominated Tory or Whig member.
The winner was then paraded in triumph to the Diss parish church where he was married to the turnip and deemed elected. This quaint tradition has all but vanished in the UK but there remains an outpost of "Diss" still to found in Ayrshire.
Tory/DUP coalition of chaos will last a few months, before Theresa May is toppled by her Tory cabinet colleagues and they cancel the deal with the DUP. The new Tory leader/PM will then try to continue with an early election in April 2018. Brexit will be delayed by years, as article 50 is extended by agreement with the EU.
This is my prediction based on the messy situation we have at the moment.
http://jackofkent.com/2017/07/in-some-possible-branches-of-the-future-leaving-will-be-an-error-an-exchange-about-brexit-with-dominic-cummings/
The North Sea oil industry cost taxpayers £312 million last year, the worst since records began nearly 50 years ago.
Revenues plummeted into the red for the first times due to low oil prices while there were high operating costs.
“Government revenues have declined over the last few years from £10.9 billion in 2011/12, to -£312 million in 2016/17,” reported HMRC.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/north-sea-oil-industry-cost-taxpayers-more-than-300-million-1-4493807
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/alex-massie-comment-sturgeon-needs-a-break-in-more-ways-than-one-w05vspjk2
always be the doubt as to whether that is sufficient. The last election has done awful things for those who make their decisions based on the polls
British manufacturers are fast approaching a “tipping point” where a lack of certainty over the direction of Brexit negotiations will force them to make painful cuts whatever the outcome, they say.
The stark warning, due to be delivered on Tuesday by Engineering Employers’ Federation chief executive Terry Scuoler, comes as business leaders begin a week of crunch meetings with government ministers to try to force the pace of thinking over how to ensure economic stability when Britain leaves the European Union.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/uk-manufacturers-brexit-cuts-business?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's your party that promises 'not being in the Customs union or single market but with all the benefits'. What would you call promising something by definition unachievable?
I'd call it lying.
Betjeman to Mary Wilson.
This is probably a good thing though. I fear materially inaccurate polling information seriously distorted the outcome of both of the last 2 elections considerably favouring the Tories in 2015 (at enormous expense to the Lib Dems) and substantially disfavouring them in June.
I think they will make the offer - perhaps quite late in the process.
She pandered to the headbangers, and we are all going to suffer for it.
Vernon Bogdanor sets it out brilliantly in his lecture 'Britain and Europe: one year on'.
https://youtu.be/39KtssUwd-Q
I recommend it to everyone.
Heck, Corbyn finds it hard to work with the PLP.
"The idea was great, if only it had been done right..."
PS: Your use of turnips seems very acceptable and useful mind you.
The implementation of Brexit has been remarkably bad.
This does not mean any other implementation of Brexit would have been any less bad.
Driving off a cliff has very few "good implementation" options...
What we have is Laurel and Hardy trying to implement soundbites and lies.
The main difference the negotiations make will be in respect of the extent to which they enable us to blame the EU for the consequences of Brexit as they become increasingly undeniable.
The change in the political mood is nevertheless evident all around us, including in the polls, where Labour now has a lead and Corbyn has better leader ratings than May (the odds on that ever occurring would have been huge a few months ago!). All the expectation is that things will have to change, and the government's approach will have to change, and - as we are seeing with public sector pay - each time the Tories will have the choice between not changing, and digging the political hole they are now in yet deeper, or changing, and conceding that the opposition is in the driving seat.
This should have been predictable, it is what happens to a business with insanely high operating costs the price of whose output falls by 75%. The magic money tree has stopped fruiting and requires expensive tree surgery.
Corbyn is a true believer who won't compromise
Racism by the state. They treated a small section of the community differently because they were Muslims. In the interests of community cohesion, they gave them preferential treatment by allowing them to get away with rape. There was also a strong suggestion they didn't want the BNP to take advantage of this racism by the politically correct council and police. How ironic.
Anne Cryer was called a racist by some fellow MPs for even bringing the subject up.
To add to the irony, only Muslims were allowed to broach the subject without being shouted down. And some did.
Incidentally, IS are Muslim, albeit an extreme form. There is more mileage in claiming these taxi drivers weren't proper Muslims because they drank alcohol and raped. But they were still given a free pass.
The BNP were racist, the Authorities were racist, stupid and hypocritical.
You explained which arguments you thought the Tories lost, but not which arguments Labour won
The problem for the country is that successive governments sought to make necessary and I'll advised concessions to some big companies regarding tax breaks. They were wholly unnecessary and have left the country with liabilities which should be pushed back onto the operating companies.
If you look at the breakdown of production costs by country, the second most expensive is Brazil, and that includes a substantial tax component - the UK rate is currently nil:
http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/