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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing’s for sure post GE17 – incumbent PMs won’t risk skip

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. John, Cameron gained over a hundred seats. His two election campaigns were streets ahead of May's.

    Although, as her campaign is the worst I can remember, that's a bit like saying someone treated prisoners more kindly than Basil II.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    The Hillary Clinton type of victory.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited July 2017
    There is going to be a West End show called "ARLENE! THE GLITZ. THE GLAMOUR. THE GOSSIP". :smiley:

    https://www.nimaxtheatres.com/duchess-theatre/arlene_the_glitz_the_glamour_the_gossip
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    The Hillary Clinton type of victory.
    That's why Clinton is in office, right?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    And it should be also remembered in 2010 the electoral geography was really unfavourable to the Tories, in 2005 Labour had a lead over the Tories of 2.8% and won a majority of 66 seats.

    In 2010 the Tories had a lead over Labour of 7.1% and didn't get a majority.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited July 2017
    OT. How jealous must the Americans be as they watch the impressive Macron being inaugurated.

    How must the Tories be turning green as they watch their own faltering trio of May Johnson and Davis and think what might have been.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    I know a Tory leaver who hates Osborne who had the grace to admit Osborne would have won a majority against Corbyn, Osborne would have hammered Corbyn on the economy and his economic plans.

    Mrs May hardly mentioned the economy.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    He may not be liked but he might succeed if he looked more competent than the alternatives.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Eagles, if you're saying that success or failure is graded according to opposition then you must accept Hannibal was a better leader than Caesar

    It's tricky to compare a serial killers dead offerings to dog food but PB is never shy of an opinion.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    The main reason the Conservatives lost this campaign was because of austerity. They winter fuel payments, student loans and, most of all, social care fees all reminded them they have been paying more money to get less in return. Having George Osborne as leader would be doing that not just on manifesto day, but every time he is on television.

    The right direction is the one that led Theresa May to polling in the high 40s in the first place. That is moderate doses of national sovereignty, immigration restriction and industrial policy. If we reach out to working class voters and young people and avoid scaring the horses of the middle classes and elderly with social care fees then Jeremy Corbyn's divided Labour Party will be exposed in time. Conservatives need to just keep their heads while everyone about them is losing theirs.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The government has published a document with detail on the tests of cladding following the Grenfell fire:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624285/Safety_checks_explanatory_note_170630.pdf

    What it seems to be saying (paragraphs 11 to 13) is that it is unlikely that buildings using cladding with combustible cores (which seems to be most of them, and all the ones where samples had been submitted for testing) did actually meet building regulations. At the very least, there should have been a presumption that they didn't, unless tests had shown that the installation as a whole was safe. They further seem to be saying that there don't seem to have been any such tests done, as far as they know.

    If this is a fair summary, and turns out to be correct, it must have been a quite extraordinary systemic failure of the regulatory environment, going far beyond Grenfell. It seems almost unbelievable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    I've seen more than one Tory arguing that they'd do better with 'proper' conservative policies like the DUP's.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
    The tactics were brilliant in finishing of UKip and closing any threat on the right flank.However I do not think they both intended to lose the referendum.They might in the long run have won a battle for a terrible price.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    isam said:

    He should have stayed. He made an uncertain situation worse by quitting. If that makes me a terminally stupid bell end in your eyes, well... :lol:

    As one of the "terminally stupid", I expected the Prime Minister of our country to speak the truth and make clear his intentions.
    His behaviour during the Referendum campaign was despicable, but I though he had standards....
    From the party of Nick Clegg and abolishing tuition fees, I find that incredibly touching.
    Just trying to clear up the mess that Labour left behind. After all, it was Labour who introduced tuition fees in the first place.

    And it was you Tories who were hell bent on putting them up.

    Still, blame the Lib Dems for everything. We are used to it.

    Why can`t you Tories/ Labour even have the gets to stand up for your own policies?
    We have the guts, that's why Dave's Tories marmalised the Lib Dems in 2015.

    And on that bombshell, I have to go and write a best man's speech.
    In retrospect a bit less 'marmalising' and Cameron / Osborne would still be in place.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017."

    i think that one is quite obvious and no detriment to cameron
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    There used, I think, to be an Irish something MP in Liverpool.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
    Cameron was against a powerful UKIP and an electable Labour party. He would have destroyed Corbyn under the same circumstances Mrs May faced.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    Yeah, that's why Mrs Thatcher lost to Kinnock and Foot.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
    Cameron was against a powerful UKIP and an electable Labour party. He would have destroyed Corbyn under the same circumstances Mrs May faced.
    It could be argued that Cameron made his own UKIP problem.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.

    This is a good point. Cameron's big issue in 2010 is that previous Tory leaders (Hague, Howard - IDS didn't get to a GE) had not made any real significant progress in increasing the number of Tory MPs since 1997. While Blair's majority had gone down from a landslide to 66 seats in 2005, a lot of that was also to do with the progress of the LDs under Kennedy. Kinnock had made significant progress in both 1987 and 1992 (and even Foot had not taken Labour to under 200) - this meant Blair had a much better to start from in 1997. Meanwhile, between 1997 and 2005 the Tories added only 33 MPs to their 1997 result of 165 MPs. To add only that amount of MPs being sub 200 meant that Cameron had a hell of a mountain to climb as far as getting a majority goes.

    That said 2008/2009 were truly terrible for Gordon Brown (although with Corbyn in charge I'd actually prefer to go back to the years of Gordon Brown leadership....at least he wasn't a Hard Leftist) and Cameron and Osborne led Labour by as much as 20+ points in some polls during those years. Where did that lead go?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
    Cameron was against a powerful UKIP and an electable Labour party. He would have destroyed Corbyn under the same circumstances Mrs May faced.
    Cameron spent all his time insulting Conservative core voters

    they wouldnt come back till he left hence Mays 42%
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    Yeah, that's why Mrs Thatcher lost to Kinnock and Foot.
    Eh? Neither of those were popular like Corbyn.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    I've seen more than one Tory arguing that they'd do better with 'proper' conservative policies like the DUP's.
    the DUP's voting record is closer to Labours than the Tories
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited July 2017
    SHOCKED!

    A barrister representing a racist attacker who ripped a niqab off the face of a Muslim woman has linked the attack to the anti-refugee atmosphere surrounding the Brexit referendum.

    A sentencing hearing was told on Monday it was no coincidence that the incident occurred a few weeks after the vote when “press and politicians ... were playing the race card”.

    Peter Scotter, 56, of Roker, Sunderland, assaulted the woman, who was shopping with her nine-year-old son and husband, shouting that he was taking his country back.

    The force he used to pull off the garment in July last year in the Bridges Shopping Centre, Sunderland, caused her to fall to the floor.

    He continued to shout abuse, including “you are in our country now, you stupid fucking Muslim”, “take that fucking off”, and “it’s our Britain, stick by our rules, these black bastards with their masks and veils, I will pull them off every time”.

    Tony Hawks, defending, told Newcastle crown court there was “no doubt that what he did was an ignorant and despicable piece of behaviour” and he was an “ignorant and ill-educated man”.

    But he added: “It is no coincidence that this occurred within a week or so of the Brexit referendum. Where the press and politicians were banging the drum about taking our country back. They were playing the race card and, in the case of Ukip, a disgraceful advertisement showing a queue of refugees.

    “He has to take responsibility for his own actions, but is it simply a coincidence that after listening to weeks of that rhetoric the defendant was not affected?”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/brexit-race-card-linked-to-attack-on-niqab-wearing-muslim-woman?CMP=twt_gu
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    One of the most odd elements of Cameroonism is how it still has cheerleaders but no actual figurehead.

    Seems the politicians have tired of it before the activists....
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    Mr. John, Cameron gained over a hundred seats. His two election campaigns were streets ahead of May's.

    Although, as her campaign is the worst I can remember, that's a bit like saying someone treated prisoners more kindly than Basil II.

    Gains are an irrelevant statistic. As I have said before, there is no evidence anywhere in political science that the previous election has any effect on the current one, other than the incumbency effect.

    We know from the local elections that Theresa May's message was a winning one. It was just executed badly. They underrated Jeremy Corbyn and overrated the British public when they released the manifesto. We won't make that mistake again.

    We only need to creep up a couple of points to get 44-45% of the vote, which should be very possible as Grenfell and the social care fees fade into the memory. A reach out to the young with a big housing program and modifications to student loans will also dent Labour's lead among the under 30s. Meanwhile Corbyn's 40% will fracture as Europhiles realise he's supporting Brexit, the moderates continue to rebel, and he gets much more scrutiny next time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056


    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    And yet you keep going on and on about them.

    How sad and pathetic is that ?

  • JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    How many would they win in France? So what?

    As a national party the LibDems are a laughable flop.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    You seem to spend most of your time on here telling people that disagree with you that they are stupid.

    Lucky you are a moderator or you would get the card every now and again, and I see you have learnt precisely nothing from the Remain campaign.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    SHOCKED!

    A barrister representing a racist attacker who ripped a niqab off the face of a Muslim woman has linked the attack to the anti-refugee atmosphere surrounding the Brexit referendum.

    A sentencing hearing was told on Monday it was no coincidence that the incident occurred a few weeks after the vote when “press and politicians ... were playing the race card”.

    Peter Scotter, 56, of Roker, Sunderland, assaulted the woman, who was shopping with her nine-year-old son and husband, shouting that he was taking his country back.

    The force he used to pull off the garment in July last year in the Bridges Shopping Centre, Sunderland, caused her to fall to the floor.

    He continued to shout abuse, including “you are in our country now, you stupid fucking Muslim”, “take that fucking off”, and “it’s our Britain, stick by our rules, these black bastards with their masks and veils, I will pull them off every time”.

    Tony Hawks, defending, told Newcastle crown court there was “no doubt that what he did was an ignorant and despicable piece of behaviour” and he was an “ignorant and ill-educated man”.

    But he added: “It is no coincidence that this occurred within a week or so of the Brexit referendum. Where the press and politicians were banging the drum about taking our country back. They were playing the race card and, in the case of Ukip, a disgraceful advertisement showing a queue of refugees.

    “He has to take responsibility for his own actions, but is it simply a coincidence that after listening to weeks of that rhetoric the defendant was not affected?”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/brexit-race-card-linked-to-attack-on-niqab-wearing-muslim-woman?CMP=twt_gu

    He had had 70 previous convictions, including throwing bricks with racist stickers on them at a house with refugees inside, according to the BBC. A real charmer.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Mortimer said:

    One of the most odd elements of Cameroonism is how it still has cheerleaders but no actual figurehead.

    Seems the politicians have tired of it before the activists....

    Nothing odd about it at all. Politicians of the quality of Cameron don't come along very often.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    You seem to spend most of your time on here telling people that disagree with you that they are stupid.

    Lucky you are a moderator or you would get the card every now and again, and I see you have learnt precisely nothing from the Remain campaign.
    My tolerance for stupidity expired a while back.

    I see you've appeared after I answered your query on the previous thread, I hope you didn't miss it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    Mr. Eagles, emperors, not kings. German for emperor is Kaiser, for king is Konig (umlaut on the O, I think).

    Julius Caesar enjoyed supreme authority for less time than Theresa May.

    Or you can be both at the same time, like the Hapsburgs. Kaiserlich und Koeniglich. - Imperial and Royal.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    You seem to spend most of your time on here telling people that disagree with you that they are stupid.

    Lucky you are a moderator or you would get the card every now and again, and I see you have learnt precisely nothing from the Remain campaign.
    he's from the Bourbon wing of the conservative, learnt nothing and forgotten nothing

    More IDS than IDS
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    FF43 said:

    Mr. Eagles, emperors, not kings. German for emperor is Kaiser, for king is Konig (umlaut on the O, I think).

    Julius Caesar enjoyed supreme authority for less time than Theresa May.

    Or you can be both at the same time, like the Hapsburgs. Kaiserlich und Koeniglich. - Imperial and Royal.
    Asking for JackW, what about the Hanoverians?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    The government has published a document with detail on the tests of cladding following the Grenfell fire:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624285/Safety_checks_explanatory_note_170630.pdf

    What it seems to be saying (paragraphs 11 to 13) is that it is unlikely that buildings using cladding with combustible cores (which seems to be most of them, and all the ones where samples had been submitted for testing) did actually meet building regulations. At the very least, there should have been a presumption that they didn't, unless tests had shown that the installation as a whole was safe. They further seem to be saying that there don't seem to have been any such tests done, as far as they know.

    If this is a fair summary, and turns out to be correct, it must have been a quite extraordinary systemic failure of the regulatory environment, going far beyond Grenfell. It seems almost unbelievable.

    I expect the principal problems will prove to be that the "inspectors" were generally hired by the developer or builder, hence they paid most attention to the needs of the people paying them, and that the regulations were overlain with detailed "guidance" from sector bodies like the BCA and NHBC, and in practice inspections were made to these guidelines rather than the intent of the original regulations.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Boris Johnson has to be the last word in treachery. How would he feel if Hammond did a critique on the Foreign Office. Shakespeare would have had such inspiration. Iago and Lady Macbeth would have been nothing but footnotes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    I'll do a thread on it just for you in the next few days.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    I've seen more than one Tory arguing that they'd do better with 'proper' conservative policies like the DUP's.
    the DUP's voting record is closer to Labours than the Tories
    It's no coincidence that some of these 'proper' conservatives also favour Michael Foot's policies on Europe.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    small hands

    cough cough
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SHOCKED!

    A barrister representing a racist attacker who ripped a niqab off the face of a Muslim woman has linked the attack to the anti-refugee atmosphere surrounding the Brexit referendum.
    [snip]

    Nice mitigation attempt - good for the lawyer. I'd be really angry if someone representing me didn't try every wriggle in the book to get me off or a lighter sentence.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    I'll do a thread on it just for you in the next few days.
    I look forward to reading it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    small hands

    cough cough
    Size 11 feet.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The only thing for sure in these crazy days is that nothing is for certain, and anyone saying otherwise is a fool.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    I know a Tory leaver who hates Osborne who had the grace to admit Osborne would have won a majority against Corbyn, Osborne would have hammered Corbyn on the economy and his economic plans.

    Mrs May hardly mentioned the economy.
    Osborne would not have won a majority against Corbyn. There is a difference between being Chancellor and a 'Master Strategist' (Osborne was, after all, called 'the submarine) and leader. You cannot be a 'submarine' when you lead your party - there is nowhere else to go. TMay learned this during the campaign.

    One of the big issues that TMay faced in the campaign is that while Corbyn came off as personable, charming, affable, laid back and principled (no I don't think he is principled but he projected that image very well) she came across as cold, indecisive, nervous and weak (her responses to the terrorist attacks being the exception of this). She had no personal warmth or charm whatsoever. Now while I've read stories that Osborne comes across as 'charming' in private, in public he does not. He too has a problem in terms of projecting warmth. There is also the larger issue that what led to this GE being a disaster for the Tories was more than just a failure to critique Labour's plan; but a failure to anticipate and respond to public fatigue with austerity and the desire for a new economic consensus. I'm not sure whether Osborne would have been well positioned to have dealt with that any better than the Tories did during the GE. As it has gone in recent years, establishment centrists have generally been unable to rise to challenge in dealing with populists on either the left or right. Macron is perhaps the exception, but he was not seen as an establishment in France despite being an ex-banker but instead as an outsider. France has also never had a 'Blairite' figure and even now he's got to deal with that absolute nutcase Melenchon. I dislike him even more than I dislike McDonnell, and that's saying something.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    small hands

    cough cough
    Size 11 feet.
    Child size 11 presumably
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    small hands

    cough cough
    Size 11 feet.
    Child size 11 presumably
    Would you like me to post a picture of all my shoes in the flat?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
    Cameron was against a powerful UKIP and an electable Labour party. He would have destroyed Corbyn under the same circumstances Mrs May faced.
    Cameron spent all his time insulting Conservative core voters

    they wouldnt come back till he left hence Mays 42%
    She got 42 because the Ukip vote disappeared. In a two party election like 2017 Cameron would have gained more of the Kipper vote as well as holding onto the floating voters May lost.
    But we'll never agree on this. I will note Cameron consistently polled well ahead of the Tory party throughout his leadership. May did until it mattered.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    FF43 said:

    Mr. Eagles, emperors, not kings. German for emperor is Kaiser, for king is Konig (umlaut on the O, I think).

    Julius Caesar enjoyed supreme authority for less time than Theresa May.

    Or you can be both at the same time, like the Hapsburgs. Kaiserlich und Koeniglich. - Imperial and Royal.
    Asking for JackW, what about the Hanoverians?
    I think they were called Usurpers.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    Yeah, that's why Mrs Thatcher lost to Kinnock and Foot.
    Eh? Neither of those were popular like Corbyn.

    Margaret Thatcher was also active politically in a time with very different demographics. It is much more difficult for Conservatives to get a vote share in the 40s these days.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017

    The government has published a document with detail on the tests of cladding following the Grenfell fire:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624285/Safety_checks_explanatory_note_170630.pdf

    What it seems to be saying (paragraphs 11 to 13) is that it is unlikely that buildings using cladding with combustible cores (which seems to be most of them, and all the ones where samples had been submitted for testing) did actually meet building regulations. At the very least, there should have been a presumption that they didn't, unless tests had shown that the installation as a whole was safe. They further seem to be saying that there don't seem to have been any such tests done, as far as they know.

    If this is a fair summary, and turns out to be correct, it must have been a quite extraordinary systemic failure of the regulatory environment, going far beyond Grenfell. It seems almost unbelievable.

    I think @IanB2 is on the money with his post upthread.

    This is a random example, from google, of a private building control company;

    https://www.rbcltd.co.uk/pages/why-use-rbc-instead-of-a-local-authority.html

    See the problem?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    SHOCKED!

    A barrister representing a racist attacker who ripped a niqab off the face of a Muslim woman has linked the attack to the anti-refugee atmosphere surrounding the Brexit referendum.

    A sentencing hearing was told on Monday it was no coincidence that the incident occurred a few weeks after the vote when “press and politicians ... were playing the race card”.

    Peter Scotter, 56, of Roker, Sunderland, assaulted the woman, who was shopping with her nine-year-old son and husband, shouting that he was taking his country back.

    The force he used to pull off the garment in July last year in the Bridges Shopping Centre, Sunderland, caused her to fall to the floor.

    He continued to shout abuse, including “you are in our country now, you stupid fucking Muslim”, “take that fucking off”, and “it’s our Britain, stick by our rules, these black bastards with their masks and veils, I will pull them off every time”.

    Tony Hawks, defending, told Newcastle crown court there was “no doubt that what he did was an ignorant and despicable piece of behaviour” and he was an “ignorant and ill-educated man”.

    But he added: “It is no coincidence that this occurred within a week or so of the Brexit referendum. Where the press and politicians were banging the drum about taking our country back. They were playing the race card and, in the case of Ukip, a disgraceful advertisement showing a queue of refugees.

    “He has to take responsibility for his own actions, but is it simply a coincidence that after listening to weeks of that rhetoric the defendant was not affected?”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/brexit-race-card-linked-to-attack-on-niqab-wearing-muslim-woman?CMP=twt_gu

    He had had 70 previous convictions, including throwing bricks with racist stickers on them at a house with refugees inside, according to the BBC. A real charmer.
    But in that case, unless he had committed all those offences within a period of about 18 months, it is obvious that this was business as usual with him and nothing to do with brexit. His barrister should be struck off for misleading the court.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. 43, indeed, Victoria was Queen-Empress.

    Incidentally, a man's shoe size matters not. It's his wiffle stick that counts.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Jason said:

    The only thing for sure in these crazy days is that nothing is for certain, and anyone saying otherwise is a fool.

    In politics this is the wisest advice....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    On your first point: that has an element of truth to it IMO, however, I would say May's popularity was actually much more artificial than Cameron's - as demonstrated by how quickly her ratings literally collapsed during a GE campaign of all things. At least Cameron didn't get exposed during a GE campaign. By the time his popularity decreased significantly he had been PM for more than five years and had been Conservative leader for a decade. It took May several months to lose her popularity.

    I think TSE's social liberalism, combined with an economic policy that responses to concerns about neo-liberalism, austerity, and inter-generational unfairness can win the Tories a GE. The social liberalism can appeal to younger voters, while the economics can appeal to both younger voters in inner cities and the JAMS/WWC.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    SHOCKED!

    A barrister representing a racist attacker who ripped a niqab off the face of a Muslim woman has linked the attack to the anti-refugee atmosphere surrounding the Brexit referendum.

    A sentencing hearing was told on Monday it was no coincidence that the incident occurred a few weeks after the vote when “press and politicians ... were playing the race card”.

    Peter Scotter, 56, of Roker, Sunderland, assaulted the woman, who was shopping with her nine-year-old son and husband, shouting that he was taking his country back.

    The force he used to pull off the garment in July last year in the Bridges Shopping Centre, Sunderland, caused her to fall to the floor.

    He continued to shout abuse, including “you are in our country now, you stupid fucking Muslim”, “take that fucking off”, and “it’s our Britain, stick by our rules, these black bastards with their masks and veils, I will pull them off every time”.

    Tony Hawks, defending, told Newcastle crown court there was “no doubt that what he did was an ignorant and despicable piece of behaviour” and he was an “ignorant and ill-educated man”.

    But he added: “It is no coincidence that this occurred within a week or so of the Brexit referendum. Where the press and politicians were banging the drum about taking our country back. They were playing the race card and, in the case of Ukip, a disgraceful advertisement showing a queue of refugees.

    “He has to take responsibility for his own actions, but is it simply a coincidence that after listening to weeks of that rhetoric the defendant was not affected?”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/brexit-race-card-linked-to-attack-on-niqab-wearing-muslim-woman?CMP=twt_gu

    He had had 70 previous convictions, including throwing bricks with racist stickers on them at a house with refugees inside, according to the BBC. A real charmer.
    All 70 during the Brexit campaign of course?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Ms. Apocalypse, as Machiavelli wrote, someone who rises very swiftly due to fortune, very often declines the same way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    It's due to your unconventional preference of voting systems....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    IanB2 said:

    I expect the principal problems will prove to be that the "inspectors" were generally hired by the developer or builder, hence they paid most attention to the needs of the people paying them, and that the regulations were overlain with detailed "guidance" from sector bodies like the BCA and NHBC, and in practice inspections were made to these guidelines rather than the intent of the original regulations.

    It seems very unlikely that that explanation will cover all the cases. Bear in mind that the 'developer' was most likely to be a local council, and most often a Labour council at that. I find it hard to believe that in all those hundreds of cases they would always have used the external inspectors rather than their own.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited July 2017

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/881880541708115968

    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.
    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.
    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?
    Please tell me you're not that stupid?
    If you want to link to the academic evidence, I'm very happy to change my mind. Although there's no need to be rude about it. Why must you be so aggressive?
    I have been on the rough end of this aggression & abuse as well. So, unecessary
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    On your first point: that has an element of truth to it IMO, however, I would say May's popularity was actually much more artificial than Cameron's - as demonstrated by how quickly her ratings literally collapsed during a GE campaign of all things. At least Cameron didn't get exposed during a GE campaign. By the time his popularity decreased significantly he had been PM for more than five years and had been Conservative leader for a decade. It took May several months to lose her popularity.

    I think TSE's social liberalism, combined with an economic policy that responses to concerns about neo-liberalism, austerity, and inter-generational unfairness can win the Tories a GE. The social liberalism can appeal to younger voters, while the economics can appeal to both younger voters in inner cities and the JAMS/WWC.
    Ms Apoc, you're missing my point. Popularity is judged in vote numbers. Millions more voted for Mrs May's paternalist state. Millions fewer voted for neo-liberalist status quo ism even when fronted by a popular Tory leader.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    Evening all :)

    While it's entertaining to watch Conservatives play "who was the worst leader?" it doesn't really get us very far.

    May did enough not to lose and that's the truth of it. Whether the arrangement with the DUP will provide for good governance and better governance than had the Conservatives won an overall majority remains to be seen.

    As TSE said earlier, what politicians say in a campaign and what they do after an election are often wildly different. 72 hours before the 2010 GE Cameron said "no deals with the Lib Dems" yet by the Friday afternoon it was a "full and inclusive offer".

    I'm convinced had the Conservatives fallen short of a majority in 2015, they would have done a deal with the SNP. I think May had that card to play this time as well and had the Conservatives been nearer 300 seats than 318 that would have been an option.

    Sometimes it's not about ideology but the practicalities of power and politics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    It's due to your unconventional preference of voting systems....
    The evening thread contains a brief reference to AV.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/881926189916540928

    It's due to your unconventional preference of voting systems....
    The evening thread contains a brief reference to AV.
    Now you've gone and ruined the surprise. :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2017
    Pong said:

    The government has published a document with detail on the tests of cladding following the Grenfell fire:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624285/Safety_checks_explanatory_note_170630.pdf

    What it seems to be saying (paragraphs 11 to 13) is that it is unlikely that buildings using cladding with combustible cores (which seems to be most of them, and all the ones where samples had been submitted for testing) did actually meet building regulations. At the very least, there should have been a presumption that they didn't, unless tests had shown that the installation as a whole was safe. They further seem to be saying that there don't seem to have been any such tests done, as far as they know.

    If this is a fair summary, and turns out to be correct, it must have been a quite extraordinary systemic failure of the regulatory environment, going far beyond Grenfell. It seems almost unbelievable.

    I think @IanB2 is on the money with his post upthread.

    This is a random example, from google, of a private building control company;

    https://www.rbcltd.co.uk/pages/why-use-rbc-instead-of-a-local-authority.html

    See the problem?
    No I don't see the problem. We use private structural engineers, auditors, testing labs for pharameceuticals, product safety test labs, oil and gas safety engineers, and many others. In any case you have jumped straight to a political conclusion (what a surprise). I suggest you wait to see how many of the building inspectors were council employees before getting too excited.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    On your first point: that has an element of truth to it IMO, however, I would say May's popularity was actually much more artificial than Cameron's - as demonstrated by how quickly her ratings literally collapsed during a GE campaign of all things. At least Cameron didn't get exposed during a GE campaign. By the time his popularity decreased significantly he had been PM for more than five years and had been Conservative leader for a decade. It took May several months to lose her popularity.

    I think TSE's social liberalism, combined with an economic policy that responses to concerns about neo-liberalism, austerity, and inter-generational unfairness can win the Tories a GE. The social liberalism can appeal to younger voters, while the economics can appeal to both younger voters in inner cities and the JAMS/WWC.
    Ms Apoc, you're missing my point. Popularity is judged in vote numbers. Millions more voted for Mrs May's paternalist state. Millions fewer voted for neo-liberalist status quo ism even when fronted by a popular Tory leader.
    Well, popularity is also judged by whether you win an overall majority. May's gain in votes was due to some Kippers coming back home as a result of Brexit. It wasn't related to her popularity.

    @Morris_Dancer Good point :smile:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited July 2017
    This was a blatant case of a decent chap corrupted and made racist by the Brexit campaign. Anyone who disagrees is obviously really, thick

    https://twitter.com/tommywilkinson/status/828558379970867200
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Guido has a good link fact checking Corbyn's fake news tweet on student numbers from poorer backgrounds:

    https://order-order.com/2017/07/03/corbyn-wrong-on-working-class-student-numbers/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    IanB2 said:

    The government has published a document with detail on the tests of cladding following the Grenfell fire:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624285/Safety_checks_explanatory_note_170630.pdf

    What it seems to be saying (paragraphs 11 to 13) is that it is unlikely that buildings using cladding with combustible cores (which seems to be most of them, and all the ones where samples had been submitted for testing) did actually meet building regulations. At the very least, there should have been a presumption that they didn't, unless tests had shown that the installation as a whole was safe. They further seem to be saying that there don't seem to have been any such tests done, as far as they know.

    If this is a fair summary, and turns out to be correct, it must have been a quite extraordinary systemic failure of the regulatory environment, going far beyond Grenfell. It seems almost unbelievable.

    I expect the principal problems will prove to be that the "inspectors" were generally hired by the developer or builder, hence they paid most attention to the needs of the people paying them, and that the regulations were overlain with detailed "guidance" from sector bodies like the BCA and NHBC, and in practice inspections were made to these guidelines rather than the intent of the original regulations.
    This is all utterly shocking, and totally unsurprising. I don't know much about the standards of high-rise and large building complexes, but the standards in new-build housing, at least down my way, are highly variable.

    I fear this will be the tip of the iceberg, and there will be many other areas where things supposed to be to standard are not.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited July 2017

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    Tbf...this is true as well Mortimer.

    Although Osborne is politically toxic, May has not proven to be much better either. She should really be winning a comfortable majority at the very least against Jeremy Corbyn. Cameron, I think would have done better in Tory Remainey areas in London at the very the least. Though the disaffection with the neo-liberal economic status quo would have likely have affected him too. It would have definitely affected Osborne.
    The way I see it Cameron was less popular but less offensive to non Tory voters, whilst May was more popular but also more offensive to non Tory voters.

    Mr Eagles strand of Tory politics won't win against popular socialists. I'm not sure mine will either.

    It's a bit of a bloody conundrum to be honest.
    On your first point: that has an element of truth to it IMO, however, I would say May's popularity was actually much more artificial than Cameron's - as demonstrated by how quickly her ratings literally collapsed during a GE campaign of all things. At least Cameron didn't get exposed during a GE campaign. By the time his popularity decreased significantly he had been PM for more than five years and had been Conservative leader for a decade. It took May several months to lose her popularity.

    I think TSE's social liberalism, combined with an economic policy that responses to concerns about neo-liberalism, austerity, and inter-generational unfairness can win the Tories a GE. The social liberalism can appeal to younger voters, while the economics can appeal to both younger voters in inner cities and the JAMS/WWC.
    Ms Apoc, you're missing my point. Popularity is judged in vote numbers. Millions more voted for Mrs May's paternalist state. Millions fewer voted for neo-liberalist status quo ism even when fronted by a popular Tory leader.
    Well, popularity is also judged by whether you win an overall majority. May's gain in votes was due to some Kippers coming back home as a result of Brexit. It wasn't related to her popularity.

    @Morris_Dancer Good point :smile:
    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    isam said:

    This was a blatant case of a decent chap corrupted and made racist by the Brexit campaign. Anyone who disagrees is obviously really, thick

    Remind us what you shouted at a woman in a niqab in London?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
    How many would they win in France? So what?

    As a national party the LibDems are a laughable flop.
    Some Jacobites might consider France as part of the realms of the monarch but I'm pretty sure that the DUP isn't including the Continental part of the Auld Alliance as within the Unionist familly.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    RobD said:

    It's due to your unconventional preference of voting systems....
    The evening thread contains a brief reference to AV.
    I predict a spike in audience numbers.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited July 2017

    isam said:

    This was a blatant case of a decent chap corrupted and made racist by the Brexit campaign. Anyone who disagrees is obviously really, thick

    Remind us what you shouted at a woman in a niqab in London?
    Wolf whistled while she was with husband - I blame a UKIP PPB
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Who says the owner isn't a certain Mr. Panini? :p
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Incidentally, those into fantasy should check out this year's Self-Published Fantasy Blog-Off. And not just because my book's on it, it's a very good way to find new books/writers.

    http://mark---lawrence.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spfbo-2017-phase-1.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    Its Crimewatch's fault too many people vote Tory...

    Daytime TV’s theme is insecurity – and it’s driving voters to the right
    Paul Mason

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/why-labour-must-understand-older-people-daytime-television
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Its Crimewatch's fault too many people vote Tory...

    Daytime TV’s theme is insecurity – and it’s driving voters to the right
    Paul Mason

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/why-labour-must-understand-older-people-daytime-television

    I saw something on Twitter earlier about that.

    Is all a conspiracy, because Lord Ashcroft is behind Crimestoppers.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    <
    That completely takes the wind out of the sails of those who have been claiming UKIP is a nasty party.

    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".

    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?



    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.

    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.

    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.

    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.

    In 2010 David Cameron began on 198 seats, in 2017 Theresa May began on 331 seats.

    What evidence is there that the number of seats won in the last election makes any difference at all to the current election?

    Please tell me you're not that stupid?

    You seem to spend most of your time on here telling people that disagree with you that they are stupid.

    Lucky you are a moderator or you would get the card every now and again, and I see you have learnt precisely nothing from the Remain campaign.

    My tolerance for stupidity expired a while back.

    I see you've appeared after I answered your query on the previous thread, I hope you didn't miss it.

    Been to the bloody dentist, been feeling very sorry for myself all afternoon.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    FF43 said:

    Mr. Eagles, emperors, not kings. German for emperor is Kaiser, for king is Konig (umlaut on the O, I think).

    Julius Caesar enjoyed supreme authority for less time than Theresa May.

    Or you can be both at the same time, like the Hapsburgs. Kaiserlich und Koeniglich. - Imperial and Royal.
    Asking for JackW, what about the Hanoverians?
    :naughty:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus subsequently the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
    You're mixing relative popularity up with electoral popularity.

    And opinion polls with reality...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus subsequently the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
    You're mixing relative popularity up with electoral popularity.

    And opinion polls with reality...
    In a GE relative popularity is the same thing as electoral popularity.

    One opinion poll - Survation and also The YouGov Model turned out to match with reality come the GE.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus subsequently the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
    You're mixing relative popularity up with electoral popularity.

    And opinion polls with reality...
    In a GE relative popularity is the same thing as electoral popularity.

    One opinion poll - Survation and also The YouGov Model turned out to match with reality come the GE.
    Gah. Then how do you explain the millions more votes May received over Cameron?

    Voters returned to her from UKIP because she hadn't told them they were little Englanders. It isn't hard to comprehend.

    I'm not saying she was great, I'm not saying she performed better relatively than cameron. But the total numbers of total votes don't lie.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus subsequently the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
    You're mixing relative popularity up with electoral popularity.

    And opinion polls with reality...
    In a GE relative popularity is the same thing as electoral popularity.

    One opinion poll - Survation and also The YouGov Model turned out to match with reality come the GE.
    Gah. Then how do you explain the millions more votes May received over Cameron?

    Voters returned to her from UKIP because she hadn't told them they were little Englanders. It isn't hard to comprehend.

    I'm not saying she was great, I'm not saying she performed better relatively than cameron. But the total numbers of total votes don't lie.
    To your first point - I literally adressed that several posts ago. Kippers came back home. And in addressing your second point, this had nothing to do with how great TMay was or because 'she hadn't told them they were little Englanders.' They came back because of Brexit. Once that happened, there was very little reason to vote UKIP for many people. TMay owes her extra votes to Cameron's (ill-judged error) in holding an EUref more than anything else.

    The total number of votes don't necessarily symbolise what you may think they do. Otherwise, TMay's ratings wouldn't be in the dustbin right now....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited July 2017

    IanB2 said:

    I expect the principal problems will prove to be that the "inspectors" were generally hired by the developer or builder, hence they paid most attention to the needs of the people paying them, and that the regulations were overlain with detailed "guidance" from sector bodies like the BCA and NHBC, and in practice inspections were made to these guidelines rather than the intent of the original regulations.

    It seems very unlikely that that explanation will cover all the cases. Bear in mind that the 'developer' was most likely to be a local council, and most often a Labour council at that. I find it hard to believe that in all those hundreds of cases they would always have used the external inspectors rather than their own.
    Austerity (or whatever you choose to call it) has led many councils to reduce their building control staff and hire in private firms as and when needed. And it is much more likely nowadays that the developer is a housing association or arms length housing management organisation, rather than the Council itself. And still more likely, given the culture of local government, that the council's own inspector would give the council's developing department more of a hard time than would some private firm hired for the same purpose. The former has some degree of job security whereas the latter could be replaced by another firm very easily.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It really isn't. Because the only means by which individuals can express their preference is with their own individual cast ballot. Millions more voted for May and Corbyn. They were both way more popular than Cameron and Miliband.

    It is.

    While Corbyn was more popular than Miliband, TMay was not, in the end, more popular than Cameron. Her own personal ratings declined substantially during the campaign to the point that she is now where Jeremy Corbyn was a few months ago in the eyes of the public. It was the decline in May's personal ratings during the campaign, which followed the trajectory of a decreasing Tory lead, and thus subsequently the turning of the position of a Conservative majority at the start of the campaign to a situation of the Tories losing their majority on June 8th.
    You're mixing relative popularity up with electoral popularity.

    And opinion polls with reality...
    In a GE relative popularity is the same thing as electoral popularity.

    One opinion poll - Survation and also The YouGov Model turned out to match with reality come the GE.
    Gah. Then how do you explain the millions more votes May received over Cameron?

    Voters returned to her from UKIP because she hadn't told them they were little Englanders. It isn't hard to comprehend.

    I'm not saying she was great, I'm not saying she performed better relatively than cameron. But the total numbers of total votes don't lie.
    To your first point - I literally adressed that several posts ago. Kippers came back home. And in addressing your second point, this had nothing to do with how great TMay was or because 'she hadn't told them they were little Englanders.' They came back because of Brexit. Once that happened, there was very little reason to vote UKIP for many people. TMay owes her extra votes to Cameron's (ill-judged error) in holding an EUref more than anything else.

    The total number of votes don't necessarily symbolise what you may think they do. Otherwise, TMay's ratings wouldn't be in the dustbin right now....
    So Kipper votes count for less than other votes do they?

    I just find it difficult to understand why you're evening bothering to argue against total numbers of votes implying popularity.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    Mortimer said:

    So Kipper votes count for less than other votes do they?

    I just find it difficult to understand why you're evening bothering to argue against total numbers of votes implying popularity.

    To your first point, no I didn't say that. I simply said that TMay gaining extra votes was down to Kippers coming back because UKIP had no purpose anymore since Leave won. I'm not going to say it for a fourth time.

    To your second point, because in this case, they don't - we have a number of indicators - TMay's declining personal ratings, her losing the majority - which indicate this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    The football fan who shouted "F you, I'm Millwall" when he took on three London terror attackers armed with knives has told BBC 5 live why he stood up to them.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40481335/hero-millwall-fan-returns-to-london-borough-market-attack

    I believe the word the BBC are looking for is terrorists.
This discussion has been closed.