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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing’s for sure post GE17 – incumbent PMs won’t risk skip

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  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    Charles said:

    Why do thein Dems get a free pass? Sub 10%, 12 seats, competitive in a dozen more perhaps.
    12 seats is more than the DUP have and they proved themselves relevant.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,048

    The headline might as well have been "18 out of 20 rats would leave the sinking ship if they can find a good excuse".
    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Herdson, the Lib Dems aren't even the third party.

    What criteria would you draw up for a formula to determine inclusion in a major debate?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2017
    Charles said:

    Why do thein Dems get a free pass? Sub 10%, 12 seats, competitive in a dozen more perhaps.
    The threshold shouldn't be a fixed number of seats - a percentage is better - 10% of seats at the last election or 15% in 12 opinion polls in the 6 months preceding the election being called. Something like that.

    The options below all seem prefabricated to artificially accommodate the Greens (1 seat) or the LibDems ("3 main parties" lololol).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861

    Mr. Herdson, the Lib Dems aren't even the third party.

    What criteria would you draw up for a formula to determine inclusion in a major debate?

    Party leaders who are likely to be either PM/Deputy PM after the election.

    So would allow the Tories, Lab, Lib Dems, and the SNP to appear.

    Four seems a reasonable number.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    We are net contributors. They're just repatriating a percentage of our own cash.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    edited July 2017

    12 seats is more than the DUP have and they proved themselves relevant.
    12/600+ doesn't really compare with the % of seats won that DUP have won/contested
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    Charles said:

    And that's the issue: commercial entities should not be actors in the political process.

    If we have to have debates the format should be set out by law/agreed between the parties and the broadcasters compelled to show them as a condition of their licence
    The devil is in the detail. Which parties? Which broadcasters?

    The system used in the US is bipartisan but it's far easier there for the Republicans and Democrats to stitch it up between them, given how much smaller the third-parties are over there. Britain's strong regional parties and larger third parties make life much harder. So if the parties and broadcasters can't agree some kind of permanent commission then they'll have to continue to wing it each time.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,825
    Scott_P said:
    Elected representatives out of step with the party membership? I thought that was meant to be Labour's problem.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    calum said:
    But I was repeatedly told that when Farage left, UKIP would become more mainstream!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Party leaders who are likely to be either PM/Deputy PM after the election.

    So would allow the Tories, Lab, Lib Dems, and the SNP to appear.

    Four seems a reasonable number.
    And if a minor party says that it won't go into coalition with anyone ... that rules them out?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Eagles, but Farron said (both before and after) the election the Lib Dems wouldn't do deals with anyone.

    Also, the SNP wouldn't do a deal with the Conservatives.

    And the closest we have to a minor party in coalition is the DUP.

    We need a set formula, not broadcasters making it up as they go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861
    GeoffM said:

    And if a minor party says that it won't go into coalition with anyone ... that rules them out?
    Bless, you actually think what a party and their leader say before an election is an unbreakable bond?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,825

    Bless, you actually think what a party and their leader say before an election is an unbreakable bond?
    You mean like Cameron saying he would serve a full term?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861

    Mr. Eagles, but Farron said (both before and after) the election the Lib Dems wouldn't do deals with anyone.

    Also, the SNP wouldn't do a deal with the Conservatives.

    And the closest we have to a minor party in coalition is the DUP.

    We need a set formula, not broadcasters making it up as they go.

    But the Silly Nationalist Party would do a deal with Labour.

    What we really need is what those bloody colonials have, a Commission on Presidential Debates.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    isam said:

    12/600+ doesn't really compare with the % of seats won that DUP have won/contested
    Why does the number contested matter? It's not as if the DUP would have won West Bromwich East if they'd bothered to stand there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861

    You mean like Cameron saying he would serve a full term?
    Events dear boy, we've been through this before.

    Only the terminally stupid expected to Cameron to continue if he lost the referendum.

    He only said what he said before the vote about not resigning because people would have framed it as 'Vote Leave and get rid of Dave'

    If he had continued, bell end Leavers (of which you are not) would have made his job impossible. They would have been banging on 'Dave couldn't get a good renegotiation, how will he get a good Brexit deal?'
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    GeoffM said:

    The threshold shouldn't be a fixed number of seats - a percentage is better - 10% of seats at the last election or 15% in 12 opinion polls in the 6 months preceding the election being called. Something like that.

    The options below all seem prefabricated to artificially accommodate the Greens (1 seat) or the LibDems ("3 main parties" lololol).
    That is just too subjective. Standing in more than 50% + 1 seat is fixed. It shows national coverage, and funding. Let's be honest who know whether the opinion polls are correct. I think the lib dms should be included because they are a national party. If the Greens and UKIP stand in 326 seats then they should be included.
  • Charles said:

    And that's the issue: commercial entities should not be actors in the political process.

    If we have to have debates the format should be set out by law/agreed between the parties and the broadcasters compelled to show them as a condition of their licence
    Commercial entities? You mean stupid newspapers that do nothing but cheerlead their preferred party.

    Or how about broadcasters putting the leaders on the spot - giving them tough questions to answer. But not Theresa cos she was frit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,825

    Events dear boy, we've been through this before.

    Only the terminally stupid expected to Cameron to continue if he lost the referendum.

    He only said what he said before the vote about not resigning because people would have framed it as 'Vote Leave and get rid of Dave'

    If he had continued, bell end Leavers (of which you are not) would have made his job impossible. They would have been banging on 'Dave couldn't get a good renegotiation, how will he get a good Brexit deal?'
    Labour Leave did frame it as 'Vote Leave and get rid of Dave' (and George too!). We got to have our cake and eat it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,767

    Locally, Anna Soubry boycotted all the debates too - perhaps was a general Tory instruction?
    To Anna Soubry, yes.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    GeoffM said:

    That's a good point well made. Much worse than Blair and Iraq.

    I think we should have a minute's silence for all of the soldiers who died in the 2017 Election Campaign.
    Thats brilliant
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Colin, welcome to the site.

    Do you really believe broadcasters should be able to dictate the course of a campaign?

    They exist to report on events and provide news, not to determine the course of events and create the news.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541

    Why does the number contested matter? It's not as if the DUP would have won West Bromwich East if they'd bothered to stand there.
    They only won slightly fewer than the LDs and seeing as they stood in about 600 fewer seats, I would say that makes them equal.

    The debates should just be Tory vs Labour. The others can have their own programme but its crazy to say that the LDs get equal billing with parties that get 20 times their seat numbers
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    That is just too subjective. Standing in more than 50% + 1 seat is fixed. It shows national coverage, and funding. Let's be honest who know whether the opinion polls are correct. I think the lib dms should be included because they are a national party. If the Greens and UKIP stand in 326 seats then they should be included.
    Actually I agree with your formulation completely.

    I'll pony up the £163k to get enough candidates up. Then I'll get my hour of fame on stage ... live on national tv.

    You lot can all bet on how many minutes in to the debate that I will declare my really quite unhealthy obsession with Sophy Ridge, get my cock out on stage and start swinging it around. It'll be worth every penny.

    Let's just hope that she's actually moderating that debate. Otherwise it'll be odd.
  • That was even weaker than I expected. He's hoping for an agreement at some point. Gives no date.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541

    Events dear boy, we've been through this before.

    Only the terminally stupid expected to Cameron to continue if he lost the referendum.

    He only said what he said before the vote about not resigning because people would have framed it as 'Vote Leave and get rid of Dave'

    If he had continued, bell end Leavers (of which you are not) would have made his job impossible. They would have been banging on 'Dave couldn't get a good renegotiation, how will he get a good Brexit deal?'
    He should have stayed. He made an uncertain situation worse by quitting. If that makes me a terminally stupid bell end in your eyes, well... :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,767
    I heard only four things about the debates:

    (1) May ducked out of one, because she was frit
    (2) May told a woman who hadn't had a pay rise for years that there was no "magic money tree"
    (3) Corbyn was much better than expected
    (4) Paxman was a dick

    From that I conclude (a) they're important, (b) most people pay little attention to politics until the final weeks of an election campaign, and, (c) being shit at debates or trying to avoid them will no longer wash.

    Ergo, if you're a PM or candidate to be one, get better at doing debates.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689

    I heard only four things about the debates:

    (1) May ducked out of one, because she was frit
    (2) May told a woman who hadn't had a pay rise for years that there was no "magic money tree"
    (3) Corbyn was much better than expected
    (4) Paxman was a dick

    From that I conclude (a) they're important, (b) most people pay little attention to politics until the final weeks of an election campaign, and, (c) being shit at debates or trying to avoid them will no longer wash.

    Ergo, if you're a PM or candidate to be one, get better at doing debates.

    Even if you're poor at debating, I'm sure you get more credit for attending than if you don't attend.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689
    calum said:
    I'd conclude from this that Sinn Fein no longer consider that a functioning Assembly suits their interests. They are making demands which they know full well neither the British government nor Unionists would concede.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    isam said:

    They only won slightly fewer than the LDs and seeing as they stood in about 600 fewer seats, I would say that makes them equal.

    The debates should just be Tory vs Labour. The others can have their own programme but its crazy to say that the LDs get equal billing with parties that get 20 times their seat numbers
    Until recently the DUP had an MP in Basingstoke.

    When was the last LibDem MP from NI?

    On that basis only one of them is truly a UK-wide party and it isn't the dead parrots.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    Scott_P said:
    But I was repeatedly told that when Farage left, UKIP would become more mainstream
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689
    GeoffM said:

    Until recently the DUP had an MP in Basingstoke.

    When was the last LibDem MP from NI?

    On that basis only one of them is truly a UK-wide party and it isn't the dead parrots.
    I'm not sure if Stratton Mills took the Liberal whip, when he defected from the UUP to Alliance. For that matter, did Naomi Long take the Lib Dem whip from 2010-15.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Re the saga of Betfair's bounced cheque: the £1,000 has finally turned up in my bank account, three weeks and two days since my original withdrawal request.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Meanwhile, will a city founded by the Barca family break away from the Treaty of Rome? [Forcing that a bit... but still].

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/881535766287065090
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    isam said:

    But because of the broken nature of our electoral system, a large number of Lib Dem (and Green Party) supporters felt they had to vote for their local Labour candidate in order to prevent the TMay dictatorship.

    The number of seats means nothing under our broken electoral system.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    edited July 2017
    .
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    isam said:

    But I was repeatedly told that when Farage left, UKIP would become more mainstream
    It had a chance to, but they blew it.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,702

    Re the saga of Betfair's bounced cheque: the £1,000 has finally turned up in my bank account, three weeks and two days since my original withdrawal request.

    Mazel tov.

    I trust u will be charging them 5% commission?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    edited July 2017

    It had a chance to, but they blew it.
    There never was anyone else.

    Pre Farage Leadership- 3%
    Farage - Win Euros, 13%, force referendum, win referendum
    Post Farage - 2%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Nabavi, glad it got sorted but that's a faff and a half.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    On the TV Debates, I agree, but these things are going to be really tough for the sitting PM. If its a 5 or 6 way bun-fight, then all the opposition leaders will be looking to tear pieces out of the PM, especially if (at the moment) we have an inbalance in left and right parties.

    A reduction to the 3 way at most is needed.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not sure if Stratton Mills took the Liberal whip, when he defected from the UUP to Alliance. For that matter, did Naomi Long take the Lib Dem whip from 2010-15.
    According to wiki ... Naomi Long didn't.

    It would have been annoying if she'd been the one to ruin my point as I helped with the TUV campaign that year and my guy got more votes than Peter Robinson lost by.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    isam said:

    He should have stayed. He made an uncertain situation worse by quitting. If that makes me a terminally stupid bell end in your eyes, well... :lol:
    As one of the "terminally stupid", I expected the Prime Minister of our country to speak the truth and make clear his intentions.

    His behaviour during the Referendum campaign was despicable, but I though he had standards....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Mazel tov.

    I trust u will be charging them 5% commission?
    I did suggest that they might like to make an ex-gratia payment for the aggro. They've offered me a £10 free bet, an offer which I haven't fallen over myself to grab.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Meanwhile, will a city founded by the Barca family break away from the Treaty of Rome? [Forcing that a bit... but still].

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/881535766287065090

    Fingers crossed. This will be a fantastic result if it happens.

    The National Day of Catalonia is the day after Gibraltar National Day (10th/11th Sept) and we always swap representatives and delegates.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,767

    Re the saga of Betfair's bounced cheque: the £1,000 has finally turned up in my bank account, three weeks and two days since my original withdrawal request.

    And how many kneecaps did you have to remove?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2017

    And how many kneecaps did you have to remove?
    I used their 'escalation' procedure (which basically comprises sending them an email to a particular email address), and to be fair to them they did phone me within a couple of hours of that. Even so, it still took a few more days for them to send me the dosh.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689
    GeoffM said:

    Fingers crossed. This will be a fantastic result if it happens.

    The National Day of Catalonia is the day after Gibraltar National Day (10th/11th Sept) and we always swap representatives and delegates.
    Spanish soldiers and civil guards would march in, the moment they declared independence.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    GeoffM said:

    Fingers crossed. This will be a fantastic result if it happens.

    The National Day of Catalonia is the day after Gibraltar National Day (10th/11th Sept) and we always swap representatives and delegates.
    How will it be fantastic? The Catalan separatists are the SNP of Spain.

    In any case, it's unconstitutional.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,767
    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.
  • Sean_F said:

    I'm not sure if Stratton Mills took the Liberal whip, when he defected from the UUP to Alliance. For that matter, did Naomi Long take the Lib Dem whip from 2010-15.
    No she didn't. Silly woman gave up the only chance an Alliance MP will have to sit on the government benches this lifetime.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,380

    I used their 'escalation' procedure (which basically comprises sending them an email to a particular email address), and to be fair to them they did phone me within a couple of hours of that. Even so, it still took a few more days for them to send me the dosh.
    Have you pointed out how much dosh you've earnt for them so far ?

    https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/premium-charges

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Royale, I believe May said more resources would be available for mental healthcare.

    Mr. F, impossible. The EU guarantees peace in Europe.

    Ahem.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689

    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.

    I think the lesson is that you must always fight a campaign on the basis that it's neck and neck, even if it isn't. Labour gave no quarter in 1997 and 2001.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sean_F said:

    Spanish soldiers and civil guards would march in, the moment they declared independence.
    Very Franco-ist. The optics would be terrible. Even more effective if there were a martyr or two created. It would just take one Guardia with an itchy trigger finger.

    It'd be the beginning of the end of Spain as a nation (woohoo!) and the lighting of a big signal bonfire for independence movements all over the place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,380

    No she didn't. Silly woman gave up the only chance an Alliance MP will have to sit on the government benches this lifetime.
    Weird decision, not taking the whip of a party that is all but identical in terms of outlook.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,543
    rkrkrk said:

    Who are the critics he has brought in?
    Paul Sweeney *was* critical of Corbyn, eg he signed this letter.

    'Scottish Labour members call for Corbyn to go'

    http://tinyurl.com/y8l3okul

    Mind you, haven't heard a mouse fart of dissent from anyone in SLab since 08/06/17.
  • Quote from a N Iegislator (in waiting): "He's such a dickhead".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689
    GeoffM said:

    Very Franco-ist. The optics would be terrible. Even more effective if there were a martyr or two created. It would just take one Guardia with an itchy trigger finger.

    It'd be the beginning of the end of Spain as a nation (woohoo!) and the lighting of a big signal bonfire for independence movements all over the place.
    I think you underestimate Spanish resolve. These people are no push over.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689

    No she didn't. Silly woman gave up the only chance an Alliance MP will have to sit on the government benches this lifetime.
    That seems daft. After all, the SDLP always took the Labour whip.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,541
    PClipp said:

    As one of the "terminally stupid", I expected the Prime Minister of our country to speak the truth and make clear his intentions.

    His behaviour during the Referendum campaign was despicable, but I though he had standards....
    It seems like a parent not approving of a child's prospective choice of partner because it isn't the safe option they prefer, then refusing to give any support to the couple when they get together and laughing when it goes wrong and everyone's miserable
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    Sean_F said:

    I think the lesson is that you must always fight a campaign on the basis that it's neck and neck, even if it isn't. Labour gave no quarter in 1997 and 2001.
    Than which there is probably no better lesson to learn from June.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,380

    Quote from a N Iegislator (in waiting): "He's such a dickhead".

    Quite obvious that both Foster and O'Neill couldn't give two hoots what Brokenshire says or does.
    He obviously looks crap and out of his depth. But in all honesty just where is his leverage. Since the Gov't has a deal with the DUP now, he carries about as much weight as a sackful of rocking horse manure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    F1: with tiny sums (obviously this won't be included in the race weekend records) I've backed each Force India and Williams driver to win, odds varying from 201 to 501.

    Red Bull, all else being equal, will lose out. The circuit, as far as I remember, is all about straight line speed. So, if the top two teams suffer misfortune or incompetence, it won't be Red Bull but the Pink Panthers or Williams who benefit. [Unless it's wet, then back Verstappen].

    Red Bulls are in the 20s. I'd have them in the 50s and Perez around 67, or something like that. Also because the Red Bulls are fundamentally less reliable than the Force Indias.

    Anyway, odds against, but this sort of thing only needs to come off once every few years to be very green overall.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,689
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite obvious that both Foster and O'Neill couldn't give two hoots what Brokenshire says or does.
    He obviously looks crap and out of his depth. But in all honesty just where is his leverage. Since the Gov't has a deal with the DUP now, he carries about as much weight as a sackful of rocking horse manure.
    I don't think it matters in any case. Sinn Fein are seeking the Moon on a stick, as their price for participating in the Executive, and the DUP have no incentive to oblige them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,789
    isam said:

    But I was repeatedly told that when Farage left, UKIP would become more mainstream
    Oh bugger. This is not going to end well.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sean_F said:

    I think you underestimate Spanish resolve. These people are no push over.
    I said the "beginning of the end" rather than "the end" as, yes, the Spanish are as stubborn as a mule.

    But the sight of blood and the optics of repression of a democratic vote by force will sow seeds.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861
    PClipp said:

    As one of the "terminally stupid", I expected the Prime Minister of our country to speak the truth and make clear his intentions.

    His behaviour during the Referendum campaign was despicable, but I though he had standards....
    From the party of Nick Clegg and abolishing tuition fees, I find that incredibly touching.
  • Sean_F said:

    That seems daft. After all, the SDLP always took the Labour whip.
    Totally stupid. Alliance are great at whining in a holier than thou attitude from the sidelines.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Quite obvious that both Foster and O'Neill couldn't give two hoots what Brokenshire says or does.
    He obviously looks crap and out of his depth. But in all honesty just where is his leverage. Since the Gov't has a deal with the DUP now, he carries about as much weight as a sackful of rocking horse manure.
    Think he still has more than he realises or is willing to use.

    The public here would support the MLAs and their staff having their salaries binned. The phone ins are almost unanimous. Nobody is impressed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,304
    RoyalBlue said:

    How will it be fantastic? The Catalan separatists are the SNP of Spain.

    In any case, it's unconstitutional.
    To be fair, Geoff lives in a place that has been under almost constant threat from Spain for decades. Even if that threat were not military it has still made life incredibly difficult for the people of Gibraltar. I don't think there would be many there who would be sorry to see Spain in a constitutional crisis.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,670

    Yup, Cameron is still the best, Ruth is awesome on social media, so Osborne's get number three.

    The really depressing thing is none of those three are MPs.
    Yes I was going to say - they're also a top 3 of awful bets on who the next leader will be.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    From the party of Nick Clegg and abolishing tuition fees, I find that incredibly touching.
    Just trying to clear up the mess that Labour left behind. After all, it was Labour who introduced tuition fees in the first place.

    And it was you Tories who were hell bent on putting them up.

    Still, blame the Lib Dems for everything. We are used to it.

    Why can`t you Tories/ Labour even have the gets to stand up for your own policies?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.

    May handled the terrorist incidents wel,l as one would expect from an experienced previous Home Secretary.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Why is the party that campaigned to leave the EU and won still collecting the highly lucrative MEP salaries/expenses?
    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Yorkcity said:

    May handled the terrorist incidents wel,l as one would expect from an experienced previous Home Secretary.
    Well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,375

    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.

    The YouGov model suggests that the real situation, at the point the election was called, was a Tory lead of around 4-6%, rising to 6-8% as soon as the announcement was made. I doubt the election would have been called at all, had ICM, ComRes et al been doing all those dodgy adjustments.

    Nevertheless Mrs May was one of the first Tories to understand, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the widespread and deep dissatisfaction with the post-crash economic settlement, and she made all sorts of promises to those who were struggling, which she has yet to meet. It isn't too much to ask that she might have applied her mind to how that dissatisfaction might play out in the heat of an election campaign, nor that she might have considered actually coming up with and initiating some proposals to help the people she professed to care about, if she was going to trouble the electorate for their votes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861
    PClipp said:

    Just trying to clear up the mess that Labour left behind. After all, it was Labour who introduced tuition fees in the first place.

    And it was you Tories who were hell bent on putting them up.

    Still, blame the Lib Dems for everything. We are used to it.

    Why can`t you Tories/ Labour even have the gets to stand up for your own policies?
    We have the guts, that's why Dave's Tories marmalised the Lib Dems in 2015.

    And on that bombshell, I have to go and write a best man's speech.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    To be fair, Geoff lives in a place that has been under almost constant threat from Spain for decades. Even if that threat were not military it has still made life incredibly difficult for the people of Gibraltar. I don't think there would be many there who would be sorry to see Spain in a constitutional crisis.
    Correct me if Im wrong, but isn't Catalunya the engine of Spain?

    Comparisons with our valued Scottish neighbours might need a bit of correction given the current state of North Sea oil....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    edited July 2017

    I wonder what Dan Hannan will do in his post-MEP life.

    @TheScreamingEagles Osborne would be an awful choice for leader. Very popular in the Westminster Village and among some socially liberal Tories, but I cannot see him appealing to the wider public. He would neither attract the WWC nor young voters/Londoners for the Tories.
    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
  • 12 seats is more than the DUP have and they proved themselves relevant.
    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,670
    edited July 2017

    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.

    Given the evidence at the time - I could defend most of her decisions.
    Even social care makes some sense if you think you are 20pts up.

    Edit: I think not costing proposals was a big error that was avoidable.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Mortimer said:

    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    Yes, I never got the impression Osborne was particuarly popular with either the PCP or Conservative Members.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861
    Mortimer said:

    There would also be an exodus of members.

    Anyone who has ever canvassed for the Tories know how toxic he is on the doorstep.
    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    That posh boy is not George Osborne though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    And you also said Mrs May was going to be so wildly popular with Tory members and the country, how'd that turn out?

    The country likes a posh boy.
    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    That posh boy is not George Osborne though.
    Exactly.

    An old pal of mine on blind tastings always decrees the popular wine brands as bland but inoffensive.

    Osborne's politics offended too many to ever be considered leadership material
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861
    Mortimer said:

    To be fair, she won a shed load more votes than Cammo....
    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
  • isam said:
    I still snigger childishly over this letter

    A few days ago in bed a bottom burp of my husband's brought forth the unmistakable words "Pol Pot". The following morning I awoke to hear the news that the infamous leader of the Khmer Rouge had died. Last night my husband farted in the bath. It's not looking good for Edward Woodward.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Eagles, if you're saying that success or failure is graded according to opposition then you must accept Hannibal was a better leader than Caesar.

    Caesar scraped a victory against an ageing Pompey who was predictable and bullied into a needless battle by the Senate. Hannibal roamed around Italy for a decade and faced far more formidable opponents in Quintus Fabius Maximus, Nero, Marcellus, and Scipio.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017

    I'm struggling to think of what May did that was right during the campaign.

    I still think calling the election was the right decision, given the evidence available at the time. But almost everything went wrong after that.

    It was probably inevitable that Corbyn would always have surged, but she could have held onto almost all the seats she lost, and gained a good dozen more, and got into the 360-365 seat bracket, just through competence and a slim, focussed, barnacle-free manifesto.

    If she'd called it pre-A50, there's a very good chance she'd have won a landslide IMO.

    LD's on 20-30%, Corbyn's Lab on 20-30%

    Con on 40-60%

    450+ seats.

    Brexit still needed to be uncertain for the campaign that she ran, to resonate. The manifesto should have been the A50 letter, which she was asking the British electorate to sign.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,861

    Mr. Eagles, if you're saying that success or failure is graded according to opposition then you must accept Hannibal was a better leader than Caesar.

    Caesar scraped a victory against an ageing Pompey who was predictable and bullied into a needless battle by the Senate. Hannibal roamed around Italy for a decade and faced far more formidable opponents in Quintus Fabius Maximus, Nero, Marcellus, and Scipio.

    Caesar became the byword for Kings.

    What did Hannibal become the byword for?

    Caesar is the most famous Caesar, whereas Hannibal Barca is probably the third most famous Hannibal, after Hannibal Lecter and John 'Hannibal' Smith from The A-Team.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The DUP contested, what, 14 seats in one region? - and won 10.

    The LibDems contested 600+ seats and won, what, 14?

    They're just so irrelevant. They are to politics what Lola were to formula one.

    How many additional seats do you think the DUP would have won in the other 632 non Ulster seats ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,524
    Mr. Eagles, emperors, not kings. German for emperor is Kaiser, for king is Konig (umlaut on the O, I think).

    Julius Caesar enjoyed supreme authority for less time than Theresa May.
  • CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    The thing is that young voters, regrettably, just don't care about the opposition because attention focuses on the party that has been in charge for seven years. David Cameron, conversely, failed to get a majority after ten years of New Labour, during a financial crisis, and against a man who called a nice old lady "bigoted" in the middle of the campaign.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    But lost Dave's majority to Corbyn, to JEREMY CORBYN, Mrs May failed to win a majority against the terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, turn us into Venezuela, and make Diane Abbott Home Secretary Trot.

    If you think that's a success then I can't help you.
    Flip it on it's head and you wonder why Cameron couldn't get as many votes in 2015 as Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017.

    I think history will prove us both right about the negatives and both wrong about the positives; neither Cameron nor May were/are popular, and neither a wonderful tactician....
This discussion has been closed.