They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
That is partly due to new language tests being processed
The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
Why was one DUP absent?
Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?
Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Isn't that very much the purpose of Brexit? To bring about Brexodus?
After all, you are off to the Californian sun, and I am tempted by the Antipodean headhunters.
The next 5 years are going to be crap here, with a zombie government conducting a car crash Brexit. Anyone with internationally transferrable skills and the opportunity should at least consider moving on.
The government thinks citizens of the world are citizens of nowhere. Who am I to argue?
The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.
We're still in a strange limbo where their is a differential understanding of the scale of the challenge we're facing. When it cuts through, as it will, to the wider public then we'll be able to judge how strong the union is.
Black Wednesday on steroids is coming at some point, but the precise event that will cause the visible humiliation of the British government remains an unknown.
A personal example. Now, three days a week, a truck leaves Germany in the evening and arrives in our warehouse the next morning unloading hundreds of boxes. It is, as if it came from Manchester !
After we leave the Customs Union, every shipment will have to have manifests that will have to be lodged with the customs of both sides, duties and VAT paid.
Today , there are no duties but there is still VAT. However, what the Intrastat system allows us when we file the VAT return is to enter the VAT value of the imports both as an Output as well as an Input thus cancelling each other.
In 2019, thanks to far more modern electronic paying systems than in 1986, the payments can be done far more effectively. However, to enable that, our bank will have to have guarantees from us that we will re-imburse the payments [ the HMRC term is "deferment payments" ] because there is a delay in their collection from our bank account.
Say, we import £1m per month. The VAT element will be £200k per month and because the deferment is "paid" the following month , banks require two months worth of guarantees. This will tie up capital. For small companies it could be impossible. But, of course, tying up capital has its own costs.
Of course, the VAT will be reclaimed through the Tax Return, so in itself it is not a cost. But the duty will be. I hope I have explained it as simply as I possibly could without referring to chapter and verse from the HMRC manuals.
Actually, I think exports outside EU are zero-rated, so your supplier in Germany should no longer charge you VAT once the UK leaves the EU. You will therefore incur no extra costs other than any duties imposed.
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
The phrase 'building affordable housing' needs to be expunged from the political lexicon. We need to build good housing. How to deliver affordable housing within the overall mix is a fundamentally different question.
The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
Why was one DUP absent?
Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?
Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.
Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.
Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
Why was one DUP absent?
Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?
Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
David Amess did not vote - someone said he was an acting Deputy Speaker. Perhaps he was paired with a Labour MP.
Having a problem with quoting a previous post on Vanilla - but in reply to @Surbiton and @DavidL on the cost to businesses of leaving the EU on VAT:
Exports outside EU are zero-rated, so your supplier in Germany should no longer charge you VAT once the UK leaves the EU. Importers from the EU will therefore incur no extra costs other than any duties imposed.
All the frontbencher rebels were shadowing at Minister of state level. Did Corbyn ever actually get around to finishing his, er, "reshuffle" at this level post election?
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
The phrase 'building affordable housing' needs to be expunged from the political lexicon. We need to build good housing. How to deliver affordable housing within the overall mix is a fundamentally different question.
Really all housing should be "affordable"!
The best predictor of a housing bubble popping is when no one could afford their current home unless they live in it already.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
Why was one DUP absent?
Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?
Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.
Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.
Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
Why was one DUP absent?
Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?
Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.
Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.
Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
Hermon voted wit labour didn't she?
She did with Labour's amendment yesterday. I think she voted with the government today.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.
Job done...
You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
Amazing how many people falsely believe they're winners. At my old firm we used to give a punter a point inside as he was so good for us, & he said he reckoned he was about level!
The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.
We're still in a strange limbo where their is a differential understanding of the scale of the challenge we're facing. When it cuts through, as it will, to the wider public then we'll be able to judge how strong the union is.
Black Wednesday on steroids is coming at some point, but the precise event that will cause the visible humiliation of the British government remains an unknown.
True. A union that is held together by a perception that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption is undesirable is not a strong and stable union. However if the immediate risk is averted it does mean it less likely to collapse overall.
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.
Job done...
You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
There may well be a vicious circle where declines in skilled immigrants leads to declining opportunities, leading to further decline.
Isn't the PB morning report usually that TM the PM was prevented from indulging in a hard right, Atlanticist, swivel eyed, cod Churchillian, White cliffs of Dover Brexit by the GE result?
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
net migration won't go negative, no chance.
No chance? So, offering me 1,000-1 odds would be like free money for you.
How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.
Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
Dan Hannan being the prime example. Not a peep before the vote, then popped up the day after to condemn the campaign.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?
If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
If so, that's interesting. Do you have further info?
As an aside, Wiki mentions missing insulation: something I've mentioned about new builds on here in the past.
Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!
My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.
Job done...
You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
If you measure Brexit success by a reduction in immigration you can achieve that through economic depression, which is the consequence of Brexit anyway, at least the kind of Brexit that pretends to control immigration.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.
Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
This point was made at the time. But the useful idiots decided to ignore it.
To all those Glastonbury clowns who cheered Jezza do they now understand? Their man is a lifelong Brexiteer.. He is opposed to UK membership of the Single Market and will sack anyone in his party who votes to the contrary. The last bearded eccentric to get them cheering at Glasto was Rolf Harris. And look where he ended up!
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.
Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
And if the rival queue comprised Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell, Denis McShane, Gerry Adams, George Osborne, Peter Mandelson?
Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!
My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down
This backs up what I've been saying on here for yonks. We have significant issues with the quality of mass new-build homes, in terms of design and construction. I'm also critical of how well (or not) the supporting infrastructure has been implemented.
Fortunately my new-build area isn't too bad, but I do fear for some of the newer ones (e.g. Cambridge NW or Northstowe).
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.
Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
This point was made at the time. But the useful idiots decided to ignore it.
The geographical fact that this country is in Europe is far more profound than 'liberal' Brexiteers appreciate. It really does mean that we cannot ever be like Australia or Canada and any attempt to become so will lead to philistinism and decline.
I see that Trump today has once again made himself look bad.
Don't know why Republican lawmakers seem so shocked and surprised. They've seen what he's like with his Megyn Kelly comments and the ''grab them by the....'' comments
Jezza has played a blinder. It's clear that his aim is to force through the very hardest of cliff-face Brexits. There'll be no deal with the EU and we'll be flung on to WTO terms in ignominy. Aided by the Tory hard Right this is easily within his grasp. Of course, this will be yet another humiliation for Theresa, but DD and Boris - both potential Tory leaders - will also be damaged goods thereafter. Jezza is a cunning man.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
Plus all those OAP's going into care homes, dying, and leaving all those houses with out any chance of being sold, and then all those houses taken by finance companies on Equity Release...
To all those Glastonbury clowns who cheered Jezza do they now understand? Their man is a lifelong Brexiteer.. He is opposed to UK membership of the Single Market and will sack anyone in his party who votes to the contrary. The last bearded eccentric to get them cheering at Glasto was Rolf Harris. And look where he ended up!
I have a feeling that was Chuka's plan. Smoke the crusty old hippy out before people started taking him seriously
Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!
My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down
This backs up what I've been saying on here for yonks. We have significant issues with the quality of mass new-build homes, in terms of design and construction. I'm also critical of how well (or not) the supporting infrastructure has been implemented.
Fortunately my new-build area isn't too bad, but I do fear for some of the newer ones (e.g. Cambridge NW or Northstowe).
I think he meant the new flats. I'll ask. There is a whole new mini town being built about 200m away, Beam Park.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
net migration won't go negative, no chance.
No chance? So, offering me 1,000-1 odds would be like free money for you.
How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?
OK maybe "no chance" is overstating it........
........like a 95% chance. I think the third world won't be able to grow fast enough to create jobs for an ever increasing population. Pakistan for example needs 6% growth just to keep the unemployment rate the same. This will lead to both economic migration and migration from conflict. They will be desperate to come here. What's more the Tory party is the party for big business, they will do whatever it takes to keep their donors happy, which includes high migration.
I could see migration rules being relaxed from Commonwealth countries like India to get into their good books for possible trade MoU's.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.
Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
And if the rival queue comprised Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell, Denis McShane, Gerry Adams, George Osborne, Peter Mandelson?
I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.
We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.
Job done...
You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
There may well be a vicious circle where declines in skilled immigrants leads to declining opportunities, leading to further decline.
Also shows the complex and interconnected aspects of our globalised world - although to be fair, it's more a case of ever closer European integration that's been brought to a screeching halt by Brexit. Would be the same if (e.g.) Texas seceded from the Union. It's not so much that people would leave Texas in droves, it's just - given the choice (which skilled workers have) they'd rather live in the bigger, more vibrant, wealthier area rather than stick with the poorer relation, whilst there is a lot of uncertainty. And that uncertainty and disruption whilst everyone works out what the hell is going on will hit economic activity and tank the economy.
Things will get bad, sure, for the next 5-7 years. But then I think things will recover (like they always do). It will be a very different country of course, but that was what people voted for.
They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.
The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.
My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.
I remain confident in that forecast.
(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
Great. All those WWC queuing up to take the migrant's jobs, becoming nurses and doctors. Can't wait to read the heartwarming stories in The Mail.
Comments
The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.
Job done...
After all, you are off to the Californian sun, and I am tempted by the Antipodean headhunters.
The next 5 years are going to be crap here, with a zombie government conducting a car crash Brexit. Anyone with internationally transferrable skills and the opportunity should at least consider moving on.
The government thinks citizens of the world are citizens of nowhere. Who am I to argue?
Black Wednesday on steroids is coming at some point, but the precise event that will cause the visible humiliation of the British government remains an unknown.
Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.
Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
Exports outside EU are zero-rated, so your supplier in Germany should no longer charge you VAT once the UK leaves the EU. Importers from the EU will therefore incur no extra costs other than any duties imposed.
See: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-exports-dispatches-and-supplying-goods-abroad for the UK law position. German rules must be a similar as it will be covered by EU VAT Directives.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/plans-manchesters-new-tallest-building-11549626
But they don't have to be tower blocks: there are many low-rise blocks of flats about.
The best predictor of a housing bubble popping is when no one could afford their current home unless they live in it already.
https://twitter.com/bbctms/status/880516275952390144
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/880519431197163521
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orchard_Village
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38905925
If so, that's interesting. Do you have further info?
As an aside, Wiki mentions missing insulation: something I've mentioned about new builds on here in the past.
How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?
As the 5th largest economy in the World, the UK attracted lots of immigrants, who boosted the economy, making it the 5th largest in the World...
Crash the economy, they will no longer come.
My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/napier-house-and-new-plymouth-rainham-residents-express-feelings-on-proposal-to-knock-down-buildings-1-4552262
A little more info on the problems:
https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/orchard-village-what-went-wrong-with-prps-flagship-housing-scheme/10017416.article
This backs up what I've been saying on here for yonks. We have significant issues with the quality of mass new-build homes, in terms of design and construction. I'm also critical of how well (or not) the supporting infrastructure has been implemented.
Fortunately my new-build area isn't too bad, but I do fear for some of the newer ones (e.g. Cambridge NW or Northstowe).
Don't know why Republican lawmakers seem so shocked and surprised. They've seen what he's like with his Megyn Kelly comments and the ''grab them by the....'' comments
NEW THREAD
........like a 95% chance. I think the third world won't be able to grow fast enough to create jobs for an ever increasing population. Pakistan for example needs 6% growth just to keep the unemployment rate the same. This will lead to both economic migration and migration from conflict. They will be desperate to come here. What's more the Tory party is the party for big business, they will do whatever it takes to keep their donors happy, which includes high migration.
I could see migration rules being relaxed from Commonwealth countries like India to get into their good books for possible trade MoU's.
Things will get bad, sure, for the next 5-7 years. But then I think things will recover (like they always do). It will be a very different country of course, but that was what people voted for.
Oh wait, isn't that how it works?