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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jere

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    That is partly due to new language tests being processed
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
    Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.

    Job done...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Isn't that very much the purpose of Brexit? To bring about Brexodus?

    After all, you are off to the Californian sun, and I am tempted by the Antipodean headhunters.

    The next 5 years are going to be crap here, with a zombie government conducting a car crash Brexit. Anyone with internationally transferrable skills and the opportunity should at least consider moving on.

    The government thinks citizens of the world are citizens of nowhere. Who am I to argue?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    FF43 said:

    The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.

    We're still in a strange limbo where their is a differential understanding of the scale of the challenge we're facing. When it cuts through, as it will, to the wider public then we'll be able to judge how strong the union is.

    Black Wednesday on steroids is coming at some point, but the precise event that will cause the visible humiliation of the British government remains an unknown.
  • AnnaAnna Posts: 59
    surbiton said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:



    A personal example. Now, three days a week, a truck leaves Germany in the evening and arrives in our warehouse the next morning unloading hundreds of boxes. It is, as if it came from Manchester !

    After we leave the Customs Union, every shipment will have to have manifests that will have to be lodged with the customs of both sides, duties and VAT paid.

    Today , there are no duties but there is still VAT. However, what the Intrastat system allows us when we file the VAT return is to enter the VAT value of the imports both as an Output as well as an Input thus cancelling each other.

    In 2019, thanks to far more modern electronic paying systems than in 1986, the payments can be done far more effectively. However, to enable that, our bank will have to have guarantees from us that we will re-imburse the payments [ the HMRC term is "deferment payments" ] because there is a delay in their collection from our bank account.

    Say, we import £1m per month. The VAT element will be £200k per month and because the deferment is "paid" the following month , banks require two months worth of guarantees. This will tie up capital. For small companies it could be impossible. But, of course, tying up capital has its own costs.

    Of course, the VAT will be reclaimed through the Tax Return, so in itself it is not a cost. But the duty will be. I hope I have explained it as simply as I possibly could without referring to chapter and verse from the HMRC manuals.

    Actually, I think exports outside EU are zero-rated, so your supplier in Germany should no longer charge you VAT once the UK leaves the EU. You will therefore incur no extra costs other than any duties imposed.

    See: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-exports-dispatches-and-supplying-goods-abroad for the UK law position. German rules must be a similar as it will be covered by EU VAT Directives.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    edited June 2017

    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    The phrase 'building affordable housing' needs to be expunged from the political lexicon. We need to build good housing. How to deliver affordable housing within the overall mix is a fundamentally different question.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Bit of a morbid question, but are there any potential by-elections in the offing?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited June 2017
    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
    Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
    Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.

    Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.

    Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
    Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?

    David Amess did not vote - someone said he was an acting Deputy Speaker. Perhaps he was paired with a Labour MP.
  • AnnaAnna Posts: 59
    Having a problem with quoting a previous post on Vanilla - but in reply to @Surbiton and @DavidL on the cost to businesses of leaving the EU on VAT:

    Exports outside EU are zero-rated, so your supplier in Germany should no longer charge you VAT once the UK leaves the EU. Importers from the EU will therefore incur no extra costs other than any duties imposed.

    See: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-exports-dispatches-and-supplying-goods-abroad for the UK law position. German rules must be a similar as it will be covered by EU VAT Directives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Scott_P said:
    Is Umunna Blair to Corbyn's Kinnock?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    All the frontbencher rebels were shadowing at Minister of state level. Did Corbyn ever actually get around to finishing his, er, "reshuffle" at this level post election?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
    AIUI some are being built: yuppy-style inner-city ones, or blocks for student digs. As an example:
    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/plans-manchesters-new-tallest-building-11549626

    But they don't have to be tower blocks: there are many low-rise blocks of flats about.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    The phrase 'building affordable housing' needs to be expunged from the political lexicon. We need to build good housing. How to deliver affordable housing within the overall mix is a fundamentally different question.
    Really all housing should be "affordable"!

    The best predictor of a housing bubble popping is when no one could afford their current home unless they live in it already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    I thought construction of tower blocks had gone out of fashion in the last few decades, or are they still being built?
    AIUI some are being built: yuppy-style inner-city ones, or blocks for student digs. As an example:
    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/plans-manchesters-new-tallest-building-11549626

    But they don't have to be tower blocks: there are many low-rise blocks of flats about.
    Ah okay. At least the old style concrete monstrosities aren't!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MikeL said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
    Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
    Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.

    Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.

    Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
    Hermon voted wit labour didn't she?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    nunu said:

    MikeL said:

    alex. said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
    Assuming hermon voted with the govt it's one Tory, one other I think? So probably some unofficial pairing arrangement?
    Yes, it's one Con and one Opposition.

    Theoretical maj is 15 with Hermon.

    Actual maj was 14 so two missing on Govt side (one of which was DUP) and one on Opposition side.
    Hermon voted wit labour didn't she?
    She did with Labour's amendment yesterday. I think she voted with the government today.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    alex. said:

    Bit of a morbid question, but are there any potential by-elections in the offing?

    Thanet South.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    edited June 2017
    Posted in error.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
    net migration won't go negative, no chance.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.

    Job done...
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:
    Amazing how many people falsely believe they're winners. At my old firm we used to give a punter a point inside as he was so good for us, & he said he reckoned he was about level!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    FF43 said:

    The other thing I got wrong was I thought Brexit would encourage the UK to split. That hasn't happened, in the short term at least.

    We're still in a strange limbo where their is a differential understanding of the scale of the challenge we're facing. When it cuts through, as it will, to the wider public then we'll be able to judge how strong the union is.

    Black Wednesday on steroids is coming at some point, but the precise event that will cause the visible humiliation of the British government remains an unknown.
    True. A union that is held together by a perception that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption is undesirable is not a strong and stable union. However if the immediate risk is averted it does mean it less likely to collapse overall.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.

    Job done...
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
    There may well be a vicious circle where declines in skilled immigrants leads to declining opportunities, leading to further decline.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    Isn't the PB morning report usually that TM the PM was prevented from indulging in a hard right, Atlanticist, swivel eyed, cod Churchillian, White cliffs of Dover Brexit by the GE result?

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/880519431197163521
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
    Looking at Wiki, I assume you're talking about Orchard Village?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orchard_Village
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38905925

    If so, that's interesting. Do you have further info?

    As an aside, Wiki mentions missing insulation: something I've mentioned about new builds on here in the past.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
    net migration won't go negative, no chance.
    No chance? So, offering me 1,000-1 odds would be like free money for you.

    How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    nunu said:

    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.

    Eh?

    As the 5th largest economy in the World, the UK attracted lots of immigrants, who boosted the economy, making it the 5th largest in the World...

    Crash the economy, they will no longer come.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    nunu said:

    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.

    Eh?

    As the 5th largest economy in the World, the UK attracted lots of immigrants, who boosted the economy, making it the 5th largest in the World...

    Crash the economy, they will no longer come.
    That argument is a bit cyclical... :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.

    Dan Hannan being the prime example. Not a peep before the vote, then popped up the day after to condemn the campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
    Those new flats on Rainhams Mardyke Estate are going to be demolished I hear
    Looking at Wiki, I assume you're talking about Orchard Village?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orchard_Village
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38905925

    If so, that's interesting. Do you have further info?

    As an aside, Wiki mentions missing insulation: something I've mentioned about new builds on here in the past.
    Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!

    My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down



  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.

    Job done...
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
    If you measure Brexit success by a reduction in immigration you can achieve that through economic depression, which is the consequence of Brexit anyway, at least the kind of Brexit that pretends to control immigration.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
    This point was made at the time. But the useful idiots decided to ignore it.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Bit of a morbid question, but are there any potential by-elections in the offing?

    Thanet South.
    +1
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    To all those Glastonbury clowns who cheered Jezza do they now understand? Their man is a lifelong Brexiteer.. He is opposed to UK membership of the Single Market and will sack anyone in his party who votes to the contrary. The last bearded eccentric to get them cheering at Glasto was Rolf Harris. And look where he ended up!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
    And if the rival queue comprised Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell, Denis McShane, Gerry Adams, George Osborne, Peter Mandelson?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    isam said:

    Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!

    My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down

    I have no local knowledge of this, but having skimmed the 'net, is there some confusion with the remaining two old blocks that are coming down?
    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/napier-house-and-new-plymouth-rainham-residents-express-feelings-on-proposal-to-knock-down-buildings-1-4552262

    A little more info on the problems:
    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/orchard-village-what-went-wrong-with-prps-flagship-housing-scheme/10017416.article

    This backs up what I've been saying on here for yonks. We have significant issues with the quality of mass new-build homes, in terms of design and construction. I'm also critical of how well (or not) the supporting infrastructure has been implemented.

    Fortunately my new-build area isn't too bad, but I do fear for some of the newer ones (e.g. Cambridge NW or Northstowe).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
    This point was made at the time. But the useful idiots decided to ignore it.
    The geographical fact that this country is in Europe is far more profound than 'liberal' Brexiteers appreciate. It really does mean that we cannot ever be like Australia or Canada and any attempt to become so will lead to philistinism and decline.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I see that Trump today has once again made himself look bad.

    Don't know why Republican lawmakers seem so shocked and surprised. They've seen what he's like with his Megyn Kelly comments and the ''grab them by the....'' comments
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Jezza has played a blinder. It's clear that his aim is to force through the very hardest of cliff-face Brexits. There'll be no deal with the EU and we'll be flung on to WTO terms in ignominy. Aided by the Tory hard Right this is easily within his grasp. Of course, this will be yet another humiliation for Theresa, but DD and Boris - both potential Tory leaders - will also be damaged goods thereafter. Jezza is a cunning man.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
    Plus all those OAP's going into care homes, dying, and leaving all those houses with out any chance of being sold, and then all those houses taken by finance companies on Equity Release...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    NEW THREAD

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    dyingswan said:

    To all those Glastonbury clowns who cheered Jezza do they now understand? Their man is a lifelong Brexiteer.. He is opposed to UK membership of the Single Market and will sack anyone in his party who votes to the contrary. The last bearded eccentric to get them cheering at Glasto was Rolf Harris. And look where he ended up!

    I have a feeling that was Chuka's plan. Smoke the crusty old hippy out before people started taking him seriously
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Yes it was previously called the Mardyke Estate, but was renamed as well as rebuilt because it was regarded as a no go area. One of the streets was renamed 'Diversity Ave', and 'Passive Way' is nearby!

    My Dad was speaking to someone in the know. I think it was built on dodgy foundations or something similar. I'll find out. He said it's definitely coming down

    I have no local knowledge of this, but having skimmed the 'net, is there some confusion with the remaining two old blocks that are coming down?
    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/napier-house-and-new-plymouth-rainham-residents-express-feelings-on-proposal-to-knock-down-buildings-1-4552262

    A little more info on the problems:
    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/orchard-village-what-went-wrong-with-prps-flagship-housing-scheme/10017416.article

    This backs up what I've been saying on here for yonks. We have significant issues with the quality of mass new-build homes, in terms of design and construction. I'm also critical of how well (or not) the supporting infrastructure has been implemented.

    Fortunately my new-build area isn't too bad, but I do fear for some of the newer ones (e.g. Cambridge NW or Northstowe).
    I think he meant the new flats. I'll ask. There is a whole new mini town being built about 200m away, Beam Park.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
    net migration won't go negative, no chance.
    No chance? So, offering me 1,000-1 odds would be like free money for you.

    How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?
    OK maybe "no chance" is overstating it........

    ........like a 95% chance. I think the third world won't be able to grow fast enough to create jobs for an ever increasing population. Pakistan for example needs 6% growth just to keep the unemployment rate the same. This will lead to both economic migration and migration from conflict. They will be desperate to come here. What's more the Tory party is the party for big business, they will do whatever it takes to keep their donors happy, which includes high migration.


    I could see migration rules being relaxed from Commonwealth countries like India to get into their good books for possible trade MoU's.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
    One of the great mysteries to me is why those who weren't xenophobes floggers and hangers didn't question why they would have common purpose with those that were? If I saw a queue with Patel Leadsom Farage Hoey Gove Dacre Murdoch and Littlejohn I'd know I was in the wrong queue.
    And if the rival queue comprised Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell, Denis McShane, Gerry Adams, George Osborne, Peter Mandelson?
    So, it's a choice between syphilis and gonorrhea.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508

    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I thought Brexit wouldn't make any difference to immigration bar the inevitable recession effects. I admit I underestimated the degree to which immigration can be reduced simply by making would be immigrants unwelcome. But it does and it discourages people with marketable skills the most.

    We talked extensively before the vote, if you really want to stop foreigners coming here, just crash the economy.

    Job done...
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say immigration is both the chicken and the egg.
    There may well be a vicious circle where declines in skilled immigrants leads to declining opportunities, leading to further decline.
    Also shows the complex and interconnected aspects of our globalised world - although to be fair, it's more a case of ever closer European integration that's been brought to a screeching halt by Brexit. Would be the same if (e.g.) Texas seceded from the Union. It's not so much that people would leave Texas in droves, it's just - given the choice (which skilled workers have) they'd rather live in the bigger, more vibrant, wealthier area rather than stick with the poorer relation, whilst there is a lot of uncertainty. And that uncertainty and disruption whilst everyone works out what the hell is going on will hit economic activity and tank the economy.

    Things will get bad, sure, for the next 5-7 years. But then I think things will recover (like they always do). It will be a very different country of course, but that was what people voted for.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
    Great. All those WWC queuing up to take the migrant's jobs, becoming nurses and doctors. Can't wait to read the heartwarming stories in The Mail.

    Oh wait, isn't that how it works?
This discussion has been closed.