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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jere

SystemSystem Posts: 11,700
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May

Labour sources now say three frontbenchers sacked for defying whip – Ruth Cadbury, Catherine West and Andy Slaughter

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Who'd have thunk it.

    First!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Second!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    ....And this is why we cannot say Corbyn is 'nailed on' to be PM.

    Politics is as unpredictable as ever these days
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    This feels like a nostalgic return to pre-election politics. Labour snatching a media defeat from the jaws of victory!
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's quite a feat for Labour to steal negative headlines from the Government today. What ineptness.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    And so it begins.

    "Facking splitters." Copyright Monty Python.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Hard to disagree with this point of view:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880482967570829313

    All the Labour MPs stood on that manifesto - they can't say they weren't warned.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    O/T

    BBC4's run of Top of the Pops episodes has reached 2nd February 1984:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcfour
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited June 2017
    Things appear to be returning to normal ie corbyn being a shambles as a leader in the HoC.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I think as he becomes more bold corbyns true colours will emerge. Will the fan club recognise it i dont know. I cant believe that the same young people who felt betrayed by brexit will fail to notice the hero is letting them dowm.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    tlg86 said:

    Hard to disagree with this point of view:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880482967570829313

    All the Labour MPs stood on that manifesto - they can't say they weren't warned.

    As much as I think Corbyn would've played it better to not whip, Chuka hasn't exactly helped his cause today, and he knew full well it would get defeated. Creasy provided a much better lesson in how to actually get things done, without causing own goal splits.
  • Options
    Off topic!
    Hotels near the O2 Arena and Brixton Academy-Help!

    My middle lad has got some unpaid work next Monday and Tuesday at gigs at the above places in that there London. He needs a cheap hotel to stay somewhere with access to both. We're not talking the usual PB standard of hotel, the venues that serve diamond dusted swan poached in Siberian tiger semen, just somewhere where he's not going to get mugged for his camera and video equipment. I don't expect you to give me names, just any ideas of an area he should be looking at that is handy for both, and areas he definitely shouldn't be looking at!

    Ta very muchly!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    No
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    It's quite a feat for Labour to steal negative headlines from the Government today. What ineptness.

    ooh don't you prefer "ineptitude"?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited June 2017
    Not near a telly.

    Has Jon "**** the Tories" Snow given his view on Jezza coming out for hard Brexit? :D
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Things appear to be returning to normal ie corbyn being a shambles as a leader in the HoC.

    I don't think Corbyn is being "shambles" He is actually exerting his authority. Albeit, on a topic on which I cannot support him.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    tlg86 said:

    Hard to disagree with this point of view:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880482967570829313

    All the Labour MPs stood on that manifesto - they can't say they weren't warned.

    As much as I think Corbyn would've played it better to not whip, Chuka hasn't exactly helped his cause today, and he knew full well it would get defeated. Creasy provided a much better lesson in how to actually get things done, without causing own goal splits.
    While I don't agree with what's been agreed with respect to abortion (personally I think the more honest thing to do would be take the power back to Westminster), I have a lot of respect for the way Creasy went about it today.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fiction Factory — Feels Like Heaven is such a great song. On BBC4 now.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Who needs a shadow cabinet when you're a supreme overlord?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hard to disagree with this point of view:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/880482967570829313

    All the Labour MPs stood on that manifesto - they can't say they weren't warned.

    As much as I think Corbyn would've played it better to not whip, Chuka hasn't exactly helped his cause today, and he knew full well it would get defeated. Creasy provided a much better lesson in how to actually get things done, without causing own goal splits.
    While I don't agree with what's been agreed with respect to abortion (personally I think the more honest thing to do would be take the power back to Westminster), I have a lot of respect for the way Creasy went about it today.
    Just imagine the howls of outrage from the SNP if they tried to bring powers back to Westminster.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    nichomar said:

    I think as he becomes more bold corbyns true colours will emerge. Will the fan club recognise it i dont know. I cant believe that the same young people who felt betrayed by brexit will fail to notice the hero is letting them dowm.

    The one thing I'll say about many Corbynistas I know is that they appear to have deluded themselves that things will miraculously get better as soon as a Tory isn't in Number 10 Downing Street. Because of the 'magic' of St Jeremy.

    @Paristonda It's why I've always liked Stella more than I have Chuka. While I still do like Chuka, he is a careerist - much more than Stella is, who has actually done some genuinely good work in the past as a backbencher - like with Payday loans for example.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
    So that gives him one or two more reshuffles worth.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
    So that gives him one or two more reshuffles worth.
    Also promoting MPs who don't even know where the bogs are yet to shadow cabinet...What could possibly go wrong.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    FPT:-

    It's certainly true that there are drawbacks to being in the single market without directly influencing the rules. But if the EU suddenly changed their mind, realised that "German cars prosecco exports etc", and offered us EEA without Freedom of Movement, how many people would still reject it then?

    The real problem with the single market is nothing to do with the single market, it's the FoM that comes with it. Yet there are measures we can take to adapt freedom of movement within the single market that would represent a change, and it would certainly work at least on a short term basis while we decide how we want to move forward as a country.

    What kind of adaptations to FoM are we talking about? I really don't think some small things like tightening benefit rules for immigrants, like Cameron tried to negotiate, will cut the mustard tbh.

    IMO, the "softest" possible Brexit that can both be negotiated and be accepted by the Great British Public, is one where there's considerably tighter controls on and reductions in levels of EU migration, in exchange for less broad access to the Single Market, even if it's still more privileged access than most non-EU countries.

    [Personally, I do think staying in the Customs Union would be politically doable, because I really don't think a lot of Leave voters cared that much about "signing trade deals around the world", nor do I think it's seen as such a big part of "respecting the result" in the way that immigration is.]
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
    So that gives him one or two more reshuffles worth.
    Not really. Remember he did not extend the olive branch to the "moderates". He has been "loyal" to those who supported him after the vote of no-confidence. New Labour MPs will be on his side for self-preservation. After all, many owe their seat because of him.

    Whatever happens, his position inside and outside the party is a lot stronger. I am not sure why he and the hard left are against the EU. In that respect how are they different from the hard right Tories ?

  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Fiction Factory — Feels Like Heaven is such a great song. On BBC4 now.

    Hyperactive... When I went to my interview at Durham and I mentioned I liked Thomas Dolby, the head of Van Mildert said he'd just seen this video...
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:



    Whatever happens, his position inside and outside the party is a lot stronger. I am not sure why he and the hard left are against the EU. In that respect how are they different from the hard right Tories ?

    Because being a "party of Remain" turned out to be a lot more politically toxic than many of Corbyn's other "hard left" policies, as the comparison between Labour and the LibDems' results a few weeks ago show.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:



    Whatever happens, his position inside and outside the party is a lot stronger. I am not sure why he and the hard left are against the EU. In that respect how are they different from the hard right Tories ?

    Because being a "party of Remain" turned out to be a lot more politically toxic than many of Corbyn's other "hard left" policies, as the comparison between Labour and the LibDems' results a few weeks ago show.
    It would be a mistake to underestimate the latent volatility. One thing May got right was her 'now is not the time' stance on IndyRef2. The same applies to stopping Brexit, but the time will come.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060

    Off topic!
    Hotels near the O2 Arena and Brixton Academy-Help!

    My middle lad has got some unpaid work next Monday and Tuesday at gigs at the above places in that there London. He needs a cheap hotel to stay somewhere with access to both. We're not talking the usual PB standard of hotel, the venues that serve diamond dusted swan poached in Siberian tiger semen, just somewhere where he's not going to get mugged for his camera and video equipment. I don't expect you to give me names, just any ideas of an area he should be looking at that is handy for both, and areas he definitely shouldn't be looking at!

    Ta very muchly!

    Have you considered Airbnb?
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    The Umunna business today is a reminder that Brexit is poison. qv this week's New Statesman. It's a mess for Labour, of course, but at least they aren't in government. The next 18 months will be much worse for the government - it hardly matters what Corbyn and co are up to, the bad news coming out of the negotiations will punish the Tories relentlessly.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
    So that gives him one or two more reshuffles worth.
    Not really. Remember he did not extend the olive branch to the "moderates". He has been "loyal" to those who supported him after the vote of no-confidence. New Labour MPs will be on his side for self-preservation. After all, many owe their seat because of him.

    Whatever happens, his position inside and outside the party is a lot stronger. I am not sure why he and the hard left are against the EU. In that respect how are they different from the hard right Tories ?

    I don't think Jezza is against the EU, he's just not that bothered by it. In reality, however, to do some of the stuff he's proposing it would need us to be out of the EU. Whether that's even crossed his mind is another matter.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    It's certainly true that there are drawbacks to being in the single market without directly influencing the rules. But if the EU suddenly changed their mind, realised that "German cars prosecco exports etc", and offered us EEA without Freedom of Movement, how many people would still reject it then?

    The real problem with the single market is nothing to do with the single market, it's the FoM that comes with it. Yet there are measures we can take to adapt freedom of movement within the single market that would represent a change, and it would certainly work at least on a short term basis while we decide how we want to move forward as a country.

    What kind of adaptations to FoM are we talking about? I really don't think some small things like tightening benefit rules for immigrants, like Cameron tried to negotiate, will cut the mustard tbh.

    IMO, the "softest" possible Brexit that can both be negotiated and be accepted by the Great British Public, is one where there's considerably tighter controls on and reductions in levels of EU migration, in exchange for less broad access to the Single Market, even if it's still more privileged access than most non-EU countries.

    [Personally, I do think staying in the Customs Union would be politically doable, because I really don't think a lot of Leave voters cared that much about "signing trade deals around the world", nor do I think it's seen as such a big part of "respecting the result" in the way that immigration is.]
    As a business person, to me , the Customs Union is far more important than the single market. The Custom Union takes away a mountain of paperwork [ or, in today's language, removes the need for millions of terabytes ]. Both the EU and the UK will survive the demise of the duty-free trade. The simplicity of the trade is more important . After all, the selling price of our goods today even if we added duties in the EU will be cheaper than on June 23rd 2016 such has been the scale of Sterling's devaluation.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    surbiton said:

    Things appear to be returning to normal ie corbyn being a shambles as a leader in the HoC.

    I don't think Corbyn is being "shambles" He is actually exerting his authority. Albeit, on a topic on which I cannot support him.
    Many remainers voted for him hoping he would be a soft brexiteer, he is soon going to be found out as wanting just as hard a Brexit as May.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't the subliminal message that Corbyn is in charge whereas May is a prisoner of her cabinet? Putting the policy implications to one side and looking at the optics, this shows that Corbyn is accreting more power.

    The bigger story is that he is surely running out of people who can serve in the shadow cabinet. :D
    Doubt that either. He has 32 more recruits. Plus quite a few like Thornberry, Gardiner etc. having seen the writing on the wall are now on his side.

    That is why he sacked the rebels. Three months back, he couldn't.
    So that gives him one or two more reshuffles worth.
    Not really. Remember he did not extend the olive branch to the "moderates". He has been "loyal" to those who supported him after the vote of no-confidence. New Labour MPs will be on his side for self-preservation. After all, many owe their seat because of him.

    Whatever happens, his position inside and outside the party is a lot stronger. I am not sure why he and the hard left are against the EU. In that respect how are they different from the hard right Tories ?

    They are against the EU because membership would constrain them in their bid to implement the socialist transformation of society. The one thing that makes the EU very atractive is as a limiting device on the loony left. If you are feeling pessimistiv imagine Brexit negotiations go wrong, we leave with poor terms, the economy dips, Corbyn is still in control of Labour and gets a majority. Generations of progress and a fairly decent society destroyed by events and the ignorance of youth.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic!
    Hotels near the O2 Arena and Brixton Academy-Help!

    My middle lad has got some unpaid work next Monday and Tuesday at gigs at the above places in that there London. He needs a cheap hotel to stay somewhere with access to both. We're not talking the usual PB standard of hotel, the venues that serve diamond dusted swan poached in Siberian tiger semen, just somewhere where he's not going to get mugged for his camera and video equipment. I don't expect you to give me names, just any ideas of an area he should be looking at that is handy for both, and areas he definitely shouldn't be looking at!

    Ta very muchly!

    Have you considered Airbnb?
    I'm trying to convince him to do that, but he's 19 and he reckons he's too pretty to risk staying in someones house, London being such a strange and debauched place!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    Things appear to be returning to normal ie corbyn being a shambles as a leader in the HoC.

    I don't think Corbyn is being "shambles" He is actually exerting his authority. Albeit, on a topic on which I cannot support him.
    Many remainers voted for him hoping he would be a soft brexiteer, he is soon going to be found out as wanting just as hard a Brexit as May.
    Maybe more so, in the privacy of the booth he may even gave voted Leave, he certainly has a more anti EU voting record than May
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    On here? Because most of the articles, and maybe a majority of the comments, are from people who called Brexit wrong and so have to double down rather than admit defeat
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    Things appear to be returning to normal ie corbyn being a shambles as a leader in the HoC.

    I don't think Corbyn is being "shambles" He is actually exerting his authority. Albeit, on a topic on which I cannot support him.
    Many remainers voted for him hoping he would be a soft brexiteer, he is soon going to be found out as wanting just as hard a Brexit as May.
    The voters succeeded simply by frustrating May's hope of a big majority. It hardly matters what Corbyn wants. Brexit will now be watered down. There are limits to how soft Brexit can be - the EU won't allow an "out but in" deal - but at least Brexit won't be dictated by ideologues.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sorry to be dense, but I can't tell from the header what the Labour rebels are rebelling against.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, has argued that the important factor is that Britain has the benefits of the single market, even if membership is not possible.

    I can only see that coming about through a separate trade deal - years and years away. But I can also see why the EU - understandably, from their point of view - cannot be seen to be giving favourable terms to a Leaver. Would Hungary and other racist East Europeans countries not follow then ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    surbiton said:

    The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, has argued that the important factor is that Britain has the benefits of the single market, even if membership is not possible.

    I can only see that coming about through a separate trade deal - years and years away. But I can also see why the EU - understandably, from their point of view - cannot be seen to be giving favourable terms to a Leaver. Would Hungary and other racist East Europeans countries not follow then ?

    Yeah, it's pie in the sky stuff.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    AndyJS said:

    Sorry to be dense, but I can't tell from the header what the Labour rebels are rebelling against.

    They voted for an amendment saying that the UK should stay in the customs union and single market.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    It's certainly true that there are drawbacks to being in the single market without directly influencing the rules. But if the EU suddenly changed their mind, realised that "German cars prosecco exports etc", and offered us EEA without Freedom of Movement, how many people would still reject it then?

    The real problem with the single market is nothing to do with the single market, it's the FoM that comes with it. Yet there are measures we can take to adapt freedom of movement within the single market that would represent a change, and it would certainly work at least on a short term basis while we decide how we want to move forward as a country.

    What kind of adaptations to FoM are we talking about? I really don't think some small things like tightening benefit rules for immigrants, like Cameron tried to negotiate, will cut the mustard tbh.

    IMO, the "softest" possible Brexit that can both be negotiated and be accepted by the Great British Public, is one where there's considerably tighter controls on and reductions in levels of EU migration, in exchange for less broad access to the Single Market, even if it's still more privileged access than most non-EU countries.

    [Personally, I do think staying in the Customs Union would be politically doable, because I really don't think a lot of Leave voters cared that much about "signing trade deals around the world", nor do I think it's seen as such a big part of "respecting the result" in the way that immigration is.]
    As a business person, to me , the Customs Union is far more important than the single market. The Custom Union takes away a mountain of paperwork [ or, in today's language, removes the need for millions of terabytes ]. Both the EU and the UK will survive the demise of the duty-free trade. The simplicity of the trade is more important . After all, the selling price of our goods today even if we added duties in the EU will be cheaper than on June 23rd 2016 such has been the scale of Sterling's devaluation.
    How can you have simplified trade with tariffs ? Genuine question.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Sorry to be dense, but I can't tell from the header what the Labour rebels are rebelling against.

    They are not rebelling against. They were voting for their own amendment. The Labour leadership , by ordering his MPs to abstain on the wording because, although Labour policy agrees with most of the wording, it does not include retaining full membership of the single market or customs union.

    It should not be forgotten that the Labour party is still primarily a pro-Remain party as are their voters.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "John Bercow: MPs don't need to wear ties"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40446102
  • Options
    trawltrawl Posts: 142
    TwisterFireStopper, take it you are in the brigade? have you had a look at The Union Jack Club? It's for forces but they take bookings from emergency services personnel.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    As long as there are people working dawn til dusk criticising every move the govt makes re Brexit, and banging the drum for disaster, they will drown out the headbangers.

    What would be your headbangers vs deniers ratio on here? Are there any headbangers demanding hard brexit?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sorry to be dense, but I can't tell from the header what the Labour rebels are rebelling against.

    They are not rebelling against. They were voting for their own amendment. The Labour leadership , by ordering his MPs to abstain on the wording because, although Labour policy agrees with most of the wording, it does not include retaining full membership of the single market or customs union.

    It should not be forgotten that the Labour party is still primarily a pro-Remain party as are their voters.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    AndyJS said:

    "John Bercow: MPs don't need to wear ties"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40446102

    He needs to go. :o
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "John Bercow: MPs don't need to wear ties"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40446102

    He needs to go. :o
    It's a normal stipulation if you put people on suicide watch.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    Yes. That's why Britain must go down the route of maximum self-harm. Anything else wouldn't satisfy the xenophobic version of Brexit that won the referendum.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "John Bercow: MPs don't need to wear ties"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40446102

    He needs to go. :o
    It's a normal stipulation if you put people on suicide watch.
    I knew things were bad for the Lib Dems and the SNP, but I hadn't realised they were that bad.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    We could even get a majority for Remain if the EU allowed the UK to impose the transition controls Blair failed to impose in 2004
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the UK can't repeatedly leave and rejoin the EU.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the UK can't repeatedly leave and rejoin the EU.
    Oooh, I don't know: maybe a constantly repeating pattern of four years in, six out. That should be hated by pretty much everybody.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    trawl said:

    TwisterFireStopper, take it you are in the brigade? have you had a look at The Union Jack Club? It's for forces but they take bookings from emergency services personnel.

    Went there with my father 50 years ago.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    Yes. That's why Britain must go down the route of maximum self-harm. Anything else wouldn't satisfy the xenophobic version of Brexit that won the referendum.
    It was not xenophobic to want the same controls on free movement almost every other EU nation bar the UK had a decade ago
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    You could always campaign for a referendum to take us back in, but be warned it took us 40 years
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited June 2017
    Terribly sad. The price of multiculturalism is not worth paying

    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/880504265478897664
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Where did I take a view on what brexit must be in the post?

    I said blocking it (altogether) is a minority view.....which it is.....

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    The country voted 85% for manifesto's that stated we will be leaving the single market but whether the public want that or not (and therefore seen as extreme) is another matter.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the referendum was explicitly billed by both sides in advance as something that would decide the issue for a lifetime, or at least a generation, whereas everyone knows and agrees at the time that elections only decide for the next 5 years.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    You could always campaign for a referendum to take us back in, but be warned it took us 40 years
    The bar to re-entry being a lot higher - schengen, euro, commitment to the superstate idea.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    As long as there are people working dawn til dusk criticising every move the govt makes re Brexit, and banging the drum for disaster, they will drown out the headbangers.

    What would be your headbangers vs deniers ratio on here? Are there any headbangers demanding hard brexit?
    The head bangers are the 22% who still want to block brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the UK can't repeatedly leave and rejoin the EU.
    Oooh, I don't know: maybe a constantly repeating pattern of four years in, six out. That should be hated by pretty much everybody.
    If people are so inclined, a change of government every five years could be as good as EU membership/Brexit
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    As previously discussed, you should have listened to your father.

    They say, 'the older, the wiser'.

    Certainly it rings true in the Smithson family.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Of course it will, at least among high fliers. If you've got a choice, why on earth would you choose to go to a place that so conspicuously signalled that it doesn't like foreigners? Those further down the pyramid might not be able to afford to be so picky.

    Which is pretty much what the polling showed.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    FPT.

    It really doesn't matter what the Tories do. Labour will always be a shambles under their current leadership. I was told a year ago by someone who would know that Corbyn had the leadership qualities of a grasshopper. Theresa's thin majority is giving us all a laugh but it will never be exploited under Labour's current leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3913814/jeremy-corbyn-forced-to-sack-six-frontbenchers-after-they-rebel-against-him-in-bid-to-keep-uk-in-single-market/
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    A weaker pound is just as, if not more, of a drawback for the city workers as it is for the low skilled workers.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-


    IMO, the "softest" possible Brexit that can both be negotiated and be accepted by the Great British Public, is one where there's considerably tighter controls on and reductions in levels of EU migration, in exchange for less broad access to the Single Market, even if it's still more privileged access than most non-EU countries.

    [Personally, I do think staying in the Customs Union would be politically doable, because I really don't think a lot of Leave voters cared that much about "signing trade deals around the world", nor do I think it's seen as such a big part of "respecting the result" in the way that immigration is.]

    As a business person, to me , the Customs Union is far more important than the single market. The Custom Union takes away a mountain of paperwork [ or, in today's language, removes the need for millions of terabytes ]. Both the EU and the UK will survive the demise of the duty-free trade. The simplicity of the trade is more important . After all, the selling price of our goods today even if we added duties in the EU will be cheaper than on June 23rd 2016 such has been the scale of Sterling's devaluation.
    How can you have simplified trade with tariffs ? Genuine question.
    A personal example. Now, three days a week, a truck leaves Germany in the evening and arrives in our warehouse the next morning unloading hundreds of boxes. It is, as if it came from Manchester !

    After we leave the Customs Union, every shipment will have to have manifests that will have to be lodged with the customs of both sides, duties and VAT paid.

    Today , there are no duties but there is still VAT. However, what the Intrastat system allows us when we file the VAT return is to enter the VAT value of the imports both as an Output as well as an Input thus cancelling each other.

    In 2019, thanks to far more modern electronic paying systems than in 1986, the payments can be done far more effectively. However, to enable that, our bank will have to have guarantees from us that we will re-imburse the payments [ the HMRC term is "deferment payments" ] because there is a delay in their collection from our bank account.

    Say, we import £1m per month. The VAT element will be £200k per month and because the deferment is "paid" the following month , banks require two months worth of guarantees. This will tie up capital. For small companies it could be impossible. But, of course, tying up capital has its own costs.

    Of course, the VAT will be reclaimed through the Tax Return, so in itself it is not a cost. But the duty will be. I hope I have explained it as simply as I possibly could without referring to chapter and verse from the HMRC manuals.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tlg86 said:
    They should.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Roger said:

    FPT.

    It really doesn't matter what the Tories do. Labour will always be a shambles under their current leadership. I was told a year ago by someone who would know that Corbyn had the leadership qualities of a grasshopper. Theresa's thin majority is giving us all a laugh but it will never be exploited under Labour's current leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3913814/jeremy-corbyn-forced-to-sack-six-frontbenchers-after-they-rebel-against-him-in-bid-to-keep-uk-in-single-market/

    I don't know how Labour members aren't concerned about McDonnell's democracy comments re Grenfell.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Interesting that Chris Bryant (top of the PMB ballot) says he has had several approaches from Tory MPs wanting him to use his slot to provide for a re-started boundary review with 650 MPs.

    Whilst it would of course be a waste of his slot, since the government has to bring forward something on boundaries in due course anyway, it does (assuming true) indicate sufficient dissatisfaction with the 600 review amongst Tories to make it as good as dead, as yesterday's thread discussion concluded was probably the case.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    A weaker pound is just as, if not more, of a drawback for the city workers as it is for the low skilled workers.
    That's a point I hadn't fully appreciated.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the referendum was explicitly billed by both sides in advance as something that would decide the issue for a lifetime, or at least a generation, whereas everyone knows and agrees at the time that elections only decide for the next 5 years.
    Referendums are only advisory as the Supreme Court made it quite clear. If we are to go over the Niagara, would everyone would be so sanguine ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894


    "I reckon Corbo Glasto super fans won't actually care about this Brexit vote too much tbh. Suspect their adoration is bigger than Brexit."

    Didn't she know that 'Corbo Glasto super fans' were just enjoying a nutty eccentric as the English have always done. They were just taking the piss in a nice way
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the referendum was explicitly billed by both sides in advance as something that would decide the issue for a lifetime, or at least a generation, whereas everyone knows and agrees at the time that elections only decide for the next 5 years.
    In fairness in SNP terms we are quite a long way through a generation by now.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories + tactical SNP support = Brexit bocker?

    51 Labour rebels + un-declared Labour rebels + Lib Dems + breakaway Tories = new centrist party?

    Interesting marker

    Why is a minority view seen as centrist?

    Blocking Brexit is a fringe view supported by only 30% of the public. Such a party would be extremist.
    That video where all the Leave campaigners assured us that leaving the EU most certainly didn't mean leaving the single market. Insert that here.
    Isn't there a similar video showing all sides saying it would mean leaving the single market? Notably the PM.
    My point is that @nunu is taking a very particular view of what Brexit must be that isn't automatic.

    As it happens, I take the view that if we're going over Niagara in a barrel, we're going to have to do it to the extreme, but there are legitimately other views. Brexit isn't just what headbanging Leavers declare it to be.
    Don't you think the main public view is that, if Brexit means anything, it means tighter controls on immigration, though? Whether that's a good or bad objective is another matter.
    It was barely 52-48. How do we know that once the "costs" [ and I do not mean financial costs only ] of Brexit start to become apparent, views will not change. We can change a government in this country after having voted them in. Why can't we do that regarding a decision voted so narrowly ?
    Because the referendum was explicitly billed by both sides in advance as something that would decide the issue for a lifetime, or at least a generation, whereas everyone knows and agrees at the time that elections only decide for the next 5 years.
    Referendums are only advisory as the Supreme Court made it quite clear. If we are to go over the Niagara, would everyone would be so sanguine ?
    Depends. The AV one wasn't in that the law would have been enacted in the event of a Yes vote automatically. However that isn't to say Parliament cannot simply change the law.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Betfair has finally settled the PM after election and government after election bets, at last!
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Election won = :lol:

    Queens Speech passed = :lol::lol:

    Corbyn = :lol::lol::lol:

    5 more years!!!
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    In case anyone still hasn't figure it out I shall spell it out for them. Jeremy Corbyn is a gigantic berk.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Queens Speech vote was again 323 to 309 which means that 18 MPs failed to vote. That would include 7 Sinn Fein 1 Speaker 3 Deputies 4 Tellers and 1 DUP . Who were the other two?

    Why was one DUP absent?

    Were they genuinely abstaining - ie they didn't want to vote with Govt?

    Or were they absent due to illness or some other reason?
    I don't think that information has come to light. There appear to be two others missing from the Division.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

    They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

    The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

    My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

    Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.
    I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

    I remain confident in that forecast.

    (Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)
    Why are we still obsessing about building a massive quantity of new homes, when the Grenfell tower tragedy and other things shows that much of what we're building is often crud?

    If my suspicions of what went on in that tragedy are right, we will need a root-and-branch rethink of how we go about building in this country. Unfortunately any measures to 'fix' the system will make building more, not less, expensive. In some cases it may even increase the ongoing cost of ownership, especially for properties that are shared or leasehold.
This discussion has been closed.