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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win
One of the features of living in a super LAB-CON marginal less than an hour from London that regularly changes hands is that you get a lot of attention at general elections. Corbyn’s first big outside visit after the election was called in April was to Bedford which was a regular port of call by David Cameron and earlier LAB leaders at GE10 and GE15.
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I think had I have been in a Tory/Lab marginal, I would have voted Blue, as awful as Theresa May is, she's no Jeremy Corbyn.
*I think I might be showing my age there.
I could see 6 or 7 Tory gains but 40 losses.
It's almost like the criticism is less correlated to what people are doing and more correlated to the perceived likelihood of being the next Conservative leader.
I'm doing some research on the clarification of the minibus driving rules for teachers.
It seems that politicians and school heads etc are up in arms about the need for training in addition to a private car licence.
But I think it's totally sensible to expect a higher level of driving experience of someone transporting 16 schoolchildren, who are singing rude songs and throwing apple cores, down a motorway?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/david-davis-has-emerged-as-the-most-impressive-of-the-brexit-ministers-a7453766.html
Does it cover Brexit at all? If so, to what extent?
Confidence and Supply doesn't explicitly include amendments to the Queens Speech but the DUP voted down the amendment anyway. Now, you could argue that that comes under 'supply' as had it passed, it would have produced an unfunded commitment but that's at least arguable. It will be interesting to watch just how far the scope of the agreement runs.
Crucially, and following on from last night's implied 'supply aspect', to what extent does Brexit count as 'confidence'? On a narrow basis, nothing counts as 'confidence' these days bar an explicity VoNC: not a Queens Speech, not a Budget (though that would obviously be 'supply'). But Brexit is so intrinsic to this government's purpose that a major defeat couldn't just be swept under the carpet; it would be a resignation matter i.e. a Confidence one.
Personally, I've thought that all the leading Conservative Brexiters have looked hopelessly out of their depth from the start. David Davis is perhaps the least disconnected from planet earth. That doesn't mean he's any good.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/conservative-and-dup-agreement-and-uk-government-financial-support-for-northern-ireland
You're a Conservative - you want the Conservatives to win, you will put forward arguments and use statistics to support that case. I get that, I really do.
At this stage, it's meaningless.
My other half, a small "c" conservative, who voted Green in the Copeland by-election (in protest at some proposed abominable pylons in the Duddon Valley) was pleased the Tories did not get a massive majority because he thought that it would curtail their tendency to arrogance.
I suspect many others felt the same way.
There was an arrogance about the reason for calling the election in the first place and an arrogant assumption that the voters would fall into line. No-one - however much they may dislike or fear Corbyn - likes to be taken for granted.
Running a newspaper must be easier than he thought.
Evening Standard editor and former chancellor George Osborne has just added a sixth job to his portfolio. He is to become an honorary professor of economics at the University of Manchester, an email to staff this morning revealed.
It develops his work on the Northern Powerhouse, an attempt to rebalance the economy away from London that he initiated three years ago.
His fellow architects Lord O’Neill, the ex Goldman Sachs economist, and Sir Howard Bernstein, former Manchester city council boss, are also honorary professors. The job mainly involves giving a few lectures a year.
Mr Osborne, former MP for Tatton in Cheshire, remains chairman of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, a business lobby group he set up to boost the northern economy.
He also makes lucrative after-dinner speeches around the world for the Washington Speaker’s Bureau, and remains an advisor to the American fund management firm Blackrock, for which he is said to earn £650,000 annually for working one day a week
https://www.ft.com/content/c273708a-3997-3661-851a-264d3a93124c
Now if the professorship was in making IDS look like a political tactician, I'd understand...
Whether you like it or not, the Tories utter recklessness, suicidal opportunism underpinned by these ridiculous personalities are sweeping the country into the hands of left wing populists and there is sweet fuck all the right can do about it.
And he'll break and give them another pretend deadline. Perhaps while pretending there's a form of direct rule by appointing someone to sort the Budget out.
Of course, he might surprise me and sack us all (as he should).
Don't hold your breath.
Personally, I think David Davis is doing a very good job. Obviously, he is in the middle of a negotiation right now, so when big business comes wanting explicit commitments to their particular industry, the only smart thing to do is to give positive noises but not commit to anything. Negotiators on the other side will obviously try to undermine him for their own advantage, and there is a subset of the UK population that is only too willing to aid their cause.
Yet, for all that, I know he impresses people he works with, both in politics and in the civil service. Theresa May is very similar. Both of them have also remained graceful and decent despite a lot of political pressure and rather nasty personal attacks. That is the sort of leadership I admire.
There is no statistical evidence that any general election result is related to previous result. Theresa May achieved a better result than Cameron and Osborne in her first election. When all this current bluster is past and May has successfully negotiated Brexit, kept the economy growing and reduce immigration, I suspect either her or her successor will beat their second result too.
At least with Major they waited a year or so. This nonsense has started already and will pervade this Govt until it is put to the sword whenever that it. Could well be five long, long, long, long years of weak, divided, pathetic Tory Govt.
I truly despise the Tories. They have shown their true colours and they really are a useless bunch of self centred wankers.
Get it into your head my friend - TMay got a CRAP result. She went to the country early to increase her majority and ended up without one.
No amount of PR waffle can get round that simple fact. She failed in her objective.
May was frankly a blank slate onto whom everyone could project their hopes and aspirations and as these tried to be all things to all people, she enjoyed a superficial popularity. When however she had to come up with some concrete ideas for the Government of the country she naturally alienated some of that support.
That combined with a persona with all the warmth of a December afternoon in Verkhoyansk meant she lost the froth from her popularity and polled 42% rather than 45-47%.
Now, she has the tough stuff - five years of Government where decisions will have to be taken which will alienate some of those who voted for her three weeks ago. That and the general notion that we'll all get tired of her and her Ministers means Labour is in a strong position to win IF they can craft a vision for 2020s post-Brexit Britain that is popular (doesn't have to be credible or viable, they are the Opposition).
The "red menace" is the language of the 1970s and 1980s and means nothing any more. Blair was able to convince millions of former Conservative supporters the Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre-left. He had to do that so those who had done well out of the Thatcher/Major years felt assured their prosperity would be safe with Labour.
2022 may be more like 1979 with the apparent near-collapse of a political culture and a strong desire for a different path no matter how untested that path might be.
Without naming names, I was speaking with a very famous Tory a couple of days before the election....to quote exactly...they told me all the party leaders are fucking useless and no one has the first clue what Brexit actually is and what it entails......
I think I agree.
But it was all so avoidable. What was with the timing? After A50. Why?
The reasons generally given - that she wanted to wait for the local results, that nobody wanted a rerun of the referendum, what if the voters reject A50? etc etc do, I think, explain her thinking.
But IMO, she was wrong to trigger A50, then hold a GE to get a mandate.
A *who do you trust to trigger A50?* campaign was exactly what the country - and the tory party, needed.
For the voters - an "X" in the conservative box would mean sending TM on the next eurostar to brussels.
An X in the labour box would have meant sending Corbyn instead.
The LD's would have had to have come up with a coherent explanation for what they would actually do if enough people put an X in the box.
I recon she'd have won a comfortable majority, with the LD's vying with Lab to be the main opposition party. The social care stuff would never have gained traction.
Corbyn would, most likely, have been marmalized.
It is really Trumpesque.
"We will get a great deal. It'll be such a good deal, you won't even believe it. So much winning"
Just from complete anecdata and my peers, a lot of the shy tory stuff came from the mid-30s cohort and they voted Labour to support/oppose a local candidate.
This is very much in line with what I saw - the huge polling leads really made people think twice.
Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and Ed Miliband......four tossers of the highest calibre...spads and privileged Oxbridge boys who were too clever by half and put their ambitions before anything else.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40431254
"...although the cost per unit of electricity and gas has indeed risen, household bills have fallen thanks to EU and UK efficiency standards which forced engineers to design appliances that use less energy.
It says since 2008, when the Climate Change Act was introduced, electricity demand is down 17% (despite all our gadgets) and gas demand is 23% lower, thanks to better insulation and UK rules on improved boilers.
The CCC chair Lord Deben told BBC News: "Really good EU regulations have made all our appliances much more efficient. It's meant we've been able to cut bills by about £20 a month for the average consumer.
"It's been a remarkable success story. But the crucial thing is we've got to keep on doing it."
We have in an historic vote decided to reclaim sovereignty from the CJEU and even as we write these very words, Brexiters are rejoicing at the handover of sovereignty to, er, another supranational court.
This reclaiming sovereignty lark really is great fun.
Had Corbyn gone backwards, the PLP *might* have gone for it (though I doubt it, given their craven Corbophilia).
Yes, I know.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/880362166314053632
The negotiations and therefore the final Treaty are owned completely by the Conservatives - if it's a bad Treaty or people want to kick the Government, they can and will.
It's just so short-sighted.
"Your son is very lucky, first to have you as a mother, and secondly to have Osborne as his lecturer/professor."
You might be right with the first, but is her son doing a degree in wallpaper hanging?
Brexit has meant a devaluing of sterling, which in turn has boosted exports and manufacturing is at it's highest level since 1988 (think I read that a few days ago)
However the six figure salary boys are whinging at the possible relocation of their jobs, thus the rebalance is happening.
How TSE can proclaim Osborne as a genius and then complain he may have to relocate to Paris or wherever is a supreme irony as far as I am concerned.
In the absence of a firm lead and with guesswork prevailing, all we can do is guess how it will turn out. For instance I am convinced that there will be a major recession caused entirely by Brexit starting in 2018 if things continue as they are now and that it will be caused by industrial withdrawal and removal of investment.
It was baffling to me too...but not now. The enthusiasm behind Corbyn is infectious. Anyone who thinks the Tories can simply change leader and press reset as with Major completely misunderstands the tsunami that is ripping through British politics. When it finishes the Tory party is going to look completely different.
Cons? They are in a pickle and no mistake. We have amazingly managed to retoxify our party. Now, we can bleat and moan that it wasn't our fault that the country voted Brexit, nor can we blame Dave for holding a referendum which, by many assessments (my own included) was perfectly legitimate to hold. In a democracy, of course the voters can never be wrong.
But a lot of people blame the Cons for Brexit and that's just how it is.
Which leaves....a LOT of rebuilding. Who next to lead? Nick Boles? Nick Herbert? Someone else from the back-benches...
I'm disappointed that you don't have the Parliament Channel on 24/7
As I've said before - it might have been an Italian Job election: they were only trying to blow the bloody doors off the majority, not destroy it completely.
There remains an anti-Establishment mood. Remain is welded to the Establishment (although they call themselves sensible, more intelligent, better educated etc). If Brexit is thwarted, no matter how, it will be seen as the establishment denying democracy when it suits them.
The anti-Establishment mood will be vastly magnified.
'Ah, but it's for their own good,' won't wash.