Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
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I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You think Dublin will be as generous to Belfast as London?
It's a view.....
The DUP are such good negotiators they'll have London subsidising them even after reunification.
At least May has got a multi-year deal - Brown settled with the DUP for just one vote
At least May has got a multi-year deal - Brown settled with the DUP for just one vote
It might say 5 years on the piece of paper, but just like a football contract, no-one would really be surprised if we wake up one morning to hear that the DUP had torn it up.
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
Of course defeats matter. A minority govt without defeats will last longer than one with many. In the latter case the govt will call an election at the earliest possible moment, if it's not forced to sooner. It might for example be forced to if the DUP agreement ends up in the bin.
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats from losing its majority even after having made this deal. In practice, if the Tories were to lose - say - 3 by elections and effectively see their majority cut to just 7 seats , would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up a political corpse?
They'd just go back to the table, ask for and get another 1bn.
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/821649/DUP-irexit-brexit-theresa-may-ian-paisley-border-EU-cost-Leo-Varadkar/amp