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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour hubris equals Tory hope
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour hubris equals Tory hope
Socialism is on the march and about to seize power in the UK, so many on the Labour left believe. This, argues Joff Wild, should give the Tories hope
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The issue of High rises failing safety tests is a slow burn......
For all that, Labour are well-placed. The Conservatives own Brexit. As Morgan Freeman says halfway through Se7en, this isn't going to have a happy ending. That should be enough to ensure that Labour win the next election by default.
As for how things will play out, I haven't a clue. From here, any outcome from a comfortable Tory majority to a Labour majority looks plausible.
Together with mini Arlene in Theresa's pocket we have two memes neutralised with one stone.
Having said that, I don't expect anyone will be too fussed about this particular very uncontroversial agreement with the DUP.
Were you one of the tories who said the Social care policy won't cost them any seats?
Having said that, the Cabinet hardly looks stellar right now.
Assuming the deal lasts longer than it takes a goatskin to dry.
And perhaps he will in due course. Perhaps he won't. But he didn't have to at the moment of the May emergency reshuffle.
You are right of course that the vested interests will cite Northern Ireland to support their bids. I'm not sure that matters much, TBH - they can always find some spurious comparison. It will make a pleasant change from 'helping their rich mates' as the default moan.
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I've barely been able to get any work done or sleep since 10pm. That changed today. Thank goodness.
Better day today with Theresa May receiving praise from a Polish mother on her EU citizens status, DUP offering to publish all the correspondence with labour in 2010 and 2015 and their correspondence with the SNP in 2015 and Sajid Javid strong statement on Grenfell.
But the story of the day for me is the 1,000 fire doors needed to replace missing ones in Camden blocks. Where are the originals and how can any Council allow that to happen. Council resignations must be on the way
Perhaps Corbyn could ennoble him for services to London marginals?
Interesting piece, SO, though if I'm being honest I detect more than a whiff of sour grapes. It would have been so much easier if Corbyn had been humiliated and Labour humbled. A Conservative landslide would have empowered the surviving moderates perhaps enough to sweep Corbyn and his kind from power.
No need to "fight, fight and fight again" as someone (a Labour leader I believe) once said. The voters and the Conservative Party would have done the heavy lifting - the Party would be yours again.
The same kind of hubris you claim exists now existed even after the 1992 defeat. By the following year, the likes of John Smith and Margaret Beckett were claiming "one last heave" after the Council elections that year would sweep Labour back to office.
We will never know whether, had John Smith survived until 1997, he would have beaten John Major. We do know that by choosing Tony Blair Labour was able to portray itself as a non-socialist party of the centre-left and persuade millions of former Conservative voters to support it.
Yet how much of this was Conservative self-destruction ? Was September 1992 it for the Major Government ? It is possible Corbyn needs to do very little and allow the Government to dig its own grave and lie down in it.
Strangely, the strongest voice I heard in the election campaign just gone was the other successful Labour leader of the post-WW2 period, Harold Wilson. May's policies contained more than a hint of Wilsonian technocracy - the return of the Board of Trade, workers on boards, large scale State interventionism and on the other side you had Corbyn who channelled the avuncular Wilson, man of the people, friend to the working man.
Was Wilson a socialist - was his 1964-70 Government socialist ? It was socially revolutionary but economically struggled (devaluation anyone ?). Callaghan and Jenkins struggled with the economic balancing of the social and industrial policies. I suspect McDonnell, for all his rhetoric, would be quite a hard Chancellor and frustrate some of the more ambitious spending plans.
Part of the dance of Government is when rhetoric meets reality and that occurs wherever you are on the political spectrum.
Sadly, I no longer vote Tory in the hope of them providing high quality government, but of avoiding apocalyptic government under Labour.
= the US = the EU = the UK = every political union ever. Welcome to realpolitik!
How much would it have cost Labour to buy the election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Shxiy7l5b_4
Wales won't leave. Scotland will either see our departure from the EU go well, and be fine, or go poorly, and rightly conclude leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with whom they do most of their trade, would be economically harmful.
It's also difficult to see where Labour can add votes, as Corbyn isn't likely to win over much of the Tories 42%, though standing still may be enough if the government is unpopular.
A majority government was there for three more years. But May got greedy.
This is bad, whatever your hue.
Unlike in the past, public opinion this time round is far more volatile. This, in effect, means that the fundamentals are not permanently fixed in one party's corner. For all the talk of Brexit now being what delivers Labour a majority, it was the consensus that it would be that very thing that would deliver the Conservatives a majority only a few months ago with a unified right being seen as an unstoppable force.
OT:
Interesting day for the SCOTUS. While it's the Travel Ban Case that's taking up the headlines, it's this which I found very interesting: http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2017/06/26/supreme_court_orders_states_to_list_same_sex_couples_on_birth_certificates.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top
Incredibly odd to rule against same-sex parents being on the birth certificate (Gorsuch, Thomas and Alito dissented). Somehow, I don't think either of those three would have an issue with female-male adoptive parents being on the birth certificate.
Look at @Pulpstar 's avatar.
Edit: Ah, zooming in helped to reveal the legend! It was undecideds, not others.
Hmmmmmmmmmmm
It's one of the things we are supposed to ignore. To put it another way - on the day that such a block is finished/refurbishment is completed, it will have a full set of fire doors. Bet money on that. The inspectors will inspect. All good.
Then the Evil Tory Fire Leprechauns will steal the doors. Pile rubbish in the common areas etc.
Prosecuting - or even catching the ETFLs is considered harmful. Answers on a postcard please.
Although even that explanation doesn't work when you look at polls like Survation, which got the result spot on. They were not making readjustments in terms of adding Don't Knows into the Labour VI column but instead taking people's reported VI at face value. Then there is, as stated before on here the matter of many polls when unadjusted showing leads fairly close to GE result among pollsters who got the GE wrong - which points to 2015 Turnout models being the main source as to why those polls were wrong.
We've seen what calling a snap election can lead to.
The kids may be Jezzarites (Ah, bless), but even if they turn out in the same number, the Oldies won't sit on their hands again. They'll be scared into believing their pensions will either be cut or inflated away to nothing.
One consolation if Jezza makes it - inflation will mean the Debt becomes manageable. And £1,000 = four Euros means we won't be able to afford holidays in Europe. Venezuela maybe.
Excuse me ! Why are we even talking about this ?This is Europe in the 21st century, not North Korea that is where such things happen.
Is this what we have come down to ? Taking credit for not dividing families ? Why was it thought about in the first place ?
Go, woman, go !
For one thing, I doubt it's the 'regulators' and 'safety regulators' who safely passed the buildings, but the local inspectors.
One thing is sure , we will hear plenty of "Lessons will be learned", bullshit and they will go back to filling their boots.
"Why was it thought about in the first place ?"
By who? No one suggested it as far as I know, unless it was the EU.
No election before April 2019 no matter how much you think it will happen
£8,5bn for 751 MEP's = £11.3M
£1bn for 10 DUP MP's over 2 years = £50M
Was Diane Abbott advising the Tories of the maths on this ? ..
The problems will come from late this year as wheels come off the Brexit wagon.
"Its the 35-50 year olds that May managed to lose in rapid time, which ultimately screwed her getting a big majority."
You're probably right. That's probably the generation paying for their kids to go to university. I'm sure the Tories can dole out the sweeties just as well - just give them a few months, so it doesn't seem so hypocritical.
I am not sure the political establishment realise how totally misunderstood the uni fees / loans system is by the vast majority of parents.
2015 Narrative: Hung Parliament probably with Lab as largest party - result: Tory majority
2016 Narrative: Remain win, Cameron to hand over in 2019 - result: Leave win, Cameron gone
2017 Narrative: Tory Landslide - result: Hung Parliament
New Narrative: Labour nailed on victory - result: who knows? The narrative is consistently wrong.
Whilst the Tories have screwed up massively I think the author is right that nothing is decided. The one thing the last few years has proved (throw in Trump for another example) is that no one knows anything. Received wisdom and political precedents no longer apply.
Back in 1984 my dad built our family house. Being a cheapskate, he fitted cheap interior doors until he could source good quality doors from a demo job. When he found a suitable door, he would take the old one out and burn it in the garden.
They would always go up like a rocket. It turned out the front and back of the doors were thin panels of wood separated by a honeycomb arrangement of card. Once the flames got past the panels, the interior would just go into a massive conflagration as the card and glue ignited.
After seeing this one day, my mum forced him to fit 'proper' doors, whatever the cost.