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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cost to tax-payers of TMay’s calamitous election decision and

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cost to tax-payers of TMay’s calamitous election decision and terrible campaign: £1bn

A deal has been done. The Tories are to be propped up in Parliament by the 10 DUP MPs who have negotiated a £1bn deal for the province.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    A question for Sir Lynton.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    edited June 2017
    Third
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    How is this an effective majority of 22? What am I missing?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    edited June 2017
    Mike, I make it a majority of 15, not 22.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Election in 2019 looks highly likely.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    dixiedean said:

    How is this an effective majority of 22? What am I missing?

    Sinn Fein IRA.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Coalition of the chiselling.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How different would the political landscape look now if Clegg had played hardball like the DUP?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    A question for Sir Lynton.
    Sir Lynton is crap, 2015 was all down to Dave and George.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    fpt
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
  • Options
    Independent_ColinIndependent_Colin Posts: 54
    Lord Percy Percy to Edmund Blackadder: "A trifling Billion, Edmund? Pay them"

    Hat-tip to Mark Pack he has unearthed a gem: Theresa May and the Holy Grail

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/150586/theresa-may-holy-grail/
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    Majority of 16?
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    How is this an effective majority of 22? What am I missing?

    Sinn Fein IRA.
    That does not make 22. Con+dup 328. Everyone else 322. Minus SF 315.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike, I make it a majority of 15, not 22.

    isn't it a majority of 14 . 650-SF and speaker=642 Con plus DUP=328 =majority of 14
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    David Cameron's open hand of friendship to the Lib Dems to form the Coalition was genuinely inspirational, the Coalition Agreement is a masterpiece of a document that students of our Constitution will pore over for years and it led to a stable government very much in the national interest in very difficult times.

    This, this is just grubby. There will be a price to be paid and not just by the taxpayer. But given the calamitous election result it may well be a case of a bad deal being better than no deal (to coin a phrase).

    Ugh.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    To only slightly misquote Plato (not that Plato) an act is not loved by the Tories because it is "good", it is good because it is loved by the Tories.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    How is this an effective majority of 22? What am I missing?

    Sinn Fein IRA.
    That does not make 22. Con+dup 328. Everyone else 322. Minus SF 315.
    A fair point. Minus the speaker as well perhaps ?

    328 - 314 = 14 Maj I think...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    Bobajob_PB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
    who were voted in by members of the public.

    Between you and @Richard_Nabavi (and @Paristonda) there won't be anyone left allowed to vote.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Has OGH double counted the shinners :D ?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    edited June 2017
    kjohnw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike, I make it a majority of 15, not 22.

    isn't it a majority of 14 . 650-SF and speaker=642 Con plus DUP=328 =majority of 14
    It's 13

    There are two non voting speakers on each side
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Pulpstar said:

    Has OGH double counted the shinners :D ?

    I fear so. Tbf, they do vote early, vote often!
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike, I make it a majority of 15, not 22.

    isn't it a majority of 14 . 650-SF and speaker=642 Con plus DUP=328 =majority of 14
    It's 11

    There are two non voting speakers on each side
    22...
    15...
    14...
    11...

    I didn't expect the government's majority to collapse so quickly!
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thank you for those who have commented on my calculation about the majority size. I have changed it
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    It is 15. I asked someone who worked at the Commons Library.

    Mike's updated his header.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2017
    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Has OGH double counted the shinners :D ?

    Yes
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TOPPING said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
    who were voted in by members of the public.
    Indeed, but no-one is forcing anyone to shack up with them.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    https://twitter.com/adcockivy/status/879045152291115008
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has OGH double counted the shinners :D ?

    I fear so. Tbf, they do vote early, vote often!
    Actually in this context they don't vote at all. Which is the point really. If they were promised another £1bn by a future Labour government I wonder if they might change their tune....
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    So if there is a government majority of 15 - does that mean that you need 8 Tories to rebel to lose a vote?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Surely there are 650 MPs of whom 8 will not vote - ie the Speaker + 7 Sinn Fein. From the remaining 642 there will be elected 3 Deputy Speakers - 1 Tory and 2 Labour MPs.Effectively the Tories have 316 MPs and Labour 260. DUP support gives the Tories 326. Labour has 260 + 35 SNP +12 LD + 4Plaid +1 Green to give a total of 312. Then there is Lady Hermon - so we have an effective Government majority of 13 - 15.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Still, look on the bright side. The long parade of vested interests whingeing about a 'grubby deal' purely because they aren't able to extort their own grubby deal is providing much entertainment at a generally grim time.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    Paging Diane Abbott...
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DanSmith said:

    How different would the political landscape look now if Clegg had played hardball like the DUP?

    We would have PR for sure.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TOPPING said:

    Paging Diane Abbott...

    In all fairness no-one on PB seems capable of adding it up either.

    Edit: Maybe @Pulpstar is right
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    edited June 2017
    Bobajob_PB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
    who were voted in by members of the public.
    Indeed, but no-one is forcing anyone to shack up with them.
    True. But, distasteful as it may be, they are a legitimate entity to try to shack up with.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Bobajob_PB said:

    DanSmith said:

    How different would the political landscape look now if Clegg had played hardball like the DUP?

    We would have PR for sure.
    So more frequent grubby deals.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Mr Beale is quite wrong. Osborne doesn't look a bit smaller.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    Surely the correct way of viewing the £1bn ProdGeld is that's it's a small price to pay for safeguarding £18bn of extra spending on the NHS.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/879324865983131650
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Ozzy is a great editor. The Standard is hugely entertaining since he took over.

    All credit to him.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    Bobajob_PB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paging Diane Abbott...

    In all fairness no-one on PB seems capable of adding it up either.

    Edit: Maybe @Pulpstar is right
    No one collectively laughed more at DA than PB and now look at us.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Still, look on the bright side. The long parade of vested interests whingeing about a 'grubby deal' purely because they aren't able to extort their own grubby deal is providing much entertainment at a generally grim time.

    That well-known vested interest @DavidL being one such example presumably?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    Bobajob_PB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Ozzy is a great editor. The Standard is hugely entertaining since he took over.

    All credit to him.
    I think he's doing a great job as editor - but clearly his future does not lie in politics
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14

    Bercow was included in the Tory total of 318.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    Bobajob_PB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Ozzy is a great editor. The Standard is hugely entertaining since he took over.

    All credit to him.
    I don't know how much they are paying him but it is looking seriously good value for money at the moment. It is the most talked about paper in the country.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    rkrkrk said:

    So if there is a government majority of 15 - does that mean that you need 8 Tories to rebel to lose a vote?

    Yes, as long as everyone else actively opposes.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14

    Bercow was included in the Tory total of 318.
    Argh yes I have confused him and Sylvia Hermon.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/879332452485009408
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The bleeding silly thing is that if the government hadn't put into its manifesto abolishing the triple lock, changing winter fuel payments and the social care plans then they would have almost certainly won a healthy majority.

    So austerity for pensioners has been proposed, cost the majority and then scrapped. All for nothing. What a calamity.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    DavidL said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Ozzy is a great editor. The Standard is hugely entertaining since he took over.

    All credit to him.
    I don't know how much they are paying him but it is looking seriously good value for money at the moment. It is the most talked about paper in the country.
    I doubt it is, outside of the political obsessives. Figures today showed it to be the least read didn't they? May have preceded his appointment though
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    It's quite obvious that CotE or SCotE does something to the holder, whereby upon relinquishing it, you go a bit mad.

    In these cases, that = Strictly and editing the Capital's newspaper.

    For Hammond he might declare himself a cross-dresser and appear on Question Time in a pink beret, for McDonnell, he will go and do a stint on a kibbutz.
  • Options
    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    ThreeQuidder said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Mr Beale is quite wrong. Osborne doesn't look a bit smaller.
    It's a good job Osborne's out of politics. Imagine having such a childish character for PM. We sure dodged a bullet.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is 15. I asked someone who worked at the Commons Library.

    Mike's updated his header.

    Can you show your working?

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    Bobajob_PB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Still, look on the bright side. The long parade of vested interests whingeing about a 'grubby deal' purely because they aren't able to extort their own grubby deal is providing much entertainment at a generally grim time.

    That well-known vested interest @DavidL being one such example presumably?
    If only. I am open to bribes, especially in the region of £1bn, my views are entirely flexible at that level.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/879332452485009408
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/879332982460481536
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14

    Bercow was included in the Tory total of 318.
    Argh yes I have confused him and Sylvia Hermon.
    Easily done...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,403
    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14

    Bercow was included in the Tory total of 318.
    Argh yes I have confused him and Sylvia Hermon.
    Easily done...
    :)
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/879330549378285568
    https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/879330781268779009

    Ozzy is a great editor. The Standard is hugely entertaining since he took over.

    All credit to him.
    I don't know how much they are paying him but it is looking seriously good value for money at the moment. It is the most talked about paper in the country.
    I doubt it is, outside of the political obsessives. Figures today showed it to be the least read didn't they? May have preceded his appointment though
    If it gets any worse they'll have to give it away ...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Good afternoon, my fellow murderous capitalist pigdogs.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DavidL said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Still, look on the bright side. The long parade of vested interests whingeing about a 'grubby deal' purely because they aren't able to extort their own grubby deal is providing much entertainment at a generally grim time.

    That well-known vested interest @DavidL being one such example presumably?
    If only. I am open to bribes, especially in the region of £1bn, my views are entirely flexible at that level.
    Chortle. Very good David.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Anyone want to speculate on whether Spreadsheet Phil is able to accurately calculate the size of the the Maydup majority?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    Casino_Royale said:

    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.

    Yet when you point out May's numerous occasions where she's lacked class you get called a posh boy.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    My working was 317 Tories + speaker + DUP makes 328 with 322 on the other side. Knock off 7 SF makes it 328 v 315. Two non voting speakers on each side gets 326 v 313, maj 13
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    mgriffithsmgriffiths Posts: 2
    How many politics enthusiasts does it take to calculate a majority...

    The official count should definitely be 13. We can only get to 15 by assuming the independent unionist (Lady Sylvia) is voting with the government too.

    318 Tories + 10 UUP - 2 (speaker & deputy) = 326
    262 Lab + 35 SNP + 12 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green + 1 Ind - 2 (deputy speakers) = 313

    326 - 313 = 13
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, my fellow murderous capitalist pigdogs.

    innumerate murderous capitalist pigdogs
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    mgriffiths said:

    How many politics enthusiasts does it take to calculate a majority...

    The official count should definitely be 13. We can only get to 15 by assuming the independent unionist (Lady Sylvia) is voting with the government too.

    318 Tories + 10 UUP - 2 (speaker & deputy) = 326
    262 Lab + 35 SNP + 12 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green + 1 Ind - 2 (deputy speakers) = 313

    326 - 313 = 13

    Huzzah !
  • Options
    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.

    Yet when you point out May's numerous occasions where she's lacked class you get called a posh boy.
    Sacking Osborne was pure class. He behaves like a child.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,403
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory + DUP + Bercow = 328 + 1 - 2 speakers = 327
    Others = 322 - 7 Sinn Fein - 2 speakers = 313

    Tory majority of 14

    Bercow was included in the Tory total of 318.
    Argh yes I have confused him and Sylvia Hermon.
    Hermon should at the very least abstain in votes of confidence, she has the DUP right up her backside in North Down.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    IanB2 said:

    My working was 317 Tories + speaker + DUP makes 328 with 322 on the other side. Knock off 7 SF makes it 328 v 315. Two non voting speakers on each side gets 326 v 313, maj 13

    Just imagine the havoc if SF temporarily took their seats? 326 v 320. Lose three by-elections and the government is on its knees.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    Bobajob_PB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So if there is a government majority of 15 - does that mean that you need 8 Tories to rebel to lose a vote?

    Yes, as long as everyone else actively opposes.
    As well as the 'rebels'! Abstaining a whipped vote is also rebelling (unless paired)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,403
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The bleeding silly thing is that if the government hadn't put into its manifesto abolishing the triple lock, changing winter fuel payments and the social care plans then they would have almost certainly won a healthy majority.

    So austerity for pensioners has been proposed, cost the majority and then scrapped. All for nothing. What a calamity.

    That is the irony.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Bobajob_PB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So if there is a government majority of 15 - does that mean that you need 8 Tories to rebel to lose a vote?

    Yes, as long as everyone else actively opposes.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SouthamObserver said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    Yes, Davidson is an invidious position now. Propping up a unpopular sectarian-backed Tory government. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,297
    mgriffiths said:

    How many politics enthusiasts does it take to calculate a majority...

    The official count should definitely be 13. We can only get to 15 by assuming the independent unionist (Lady Sylvia) is voting with the government too.

    318 Tories + 10 UUP - 2 (speaker & deputy) = 326
    262 Lab + 35 SNP + 12 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green + 1 Ind - 2 (deputy speakers) = 313

    326 - 313 = 13

    Lady S isn't party to the C&S agreement and therefore must be counted as opposition, despite any speculation about her likely voting patterns.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,403
    May will be pleased with that statement of support from Ruth Davidson.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    mgriffiths said:

    How many politics enthusiasts does it take to calculate a majority...

    The official count should definitely be 13. We can only get to 15 by assuming the independent unionist (Lady Sylvia) is voting with the government too.

    318 Tories + 10 UUP - 2 (speaker & deputy) = 326
    262 Lab + 35 SNP + 12 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green + 1 Ind - 2 (deputy speakers) = 313

    326 - 313 = 13

    But that creates another problem. The unfortunate number 13 is usually solved by bringing along a hobbit and we already have one as Speaker. Is the convention that the Speaker votes with the government in the event of a tie enough?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Casino_Royale said:

    May will be pleased with that statement of support from Ruth Davidson.

    Statement of weakness !
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    It's just a lump of shit aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.

    You know, the kind of thing that would be an absolute outrage if it was heading in the opposite direction.
  • Options
    mgriffithsmgriffiths Posts: 2
    IanB2 said:

    Lady S isn't party to the C&S agreement and therefore must be counted as opposition, despite any speculation about her likely voting patterns.

    Yep, that's why I said the 'official' answer should be 13.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    edited June 2017
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    It's just a lump of shit aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.

    You know, the kind of thing that would be an absolute outrage if it was heading in the opposite direction.
    BUT I STILL WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS A "TRUE STORY"!!! :smile:

    Did Jezza say it at Glasto?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2017
    Bobajob_PB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    Yes, Davidson is an invidious position now. Propping up a unpopular sectarian-backed Tory government. What could possibly go wrong?
    Probably helpful to Labour in Scotland and likely to lead to the unwinding of significant tactical pro-Union votes to Labour's advantage. Seats such as East Renfrew, Stirling and Ochil could fall to them next time.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    SouthamObserver said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    I think a separate Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party is increasingly likely on the back of this deal. May not be a bad thing.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Topping, I am not innumerate. Who do you think I am, the Shadow Chancellor?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/skipsterxx/status/878733894878724096

    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    It's just a lump of shit aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.

    You know, the kind of thing that would be an absolute outrage if it was heading in the opposite direction.
    BUT I STILL WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS A "TRUE STORY"!!! :smile:

    Did Jezza say it at Glasto?
    Of course he didn't, don't be ridiculous.
This discussion has been closed.