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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May
The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON.
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So in sum, I think things will get worse for the Blues - there's no quick wins from BREXIT (passports aside) and a heck of a lot of unknowns - farm subsidies, higher education money, Airbus colbaoration, EU residents rights etc etc - all of these are likely to make some waves with little gain for the Tories - this may be their annus horriblus
Favourability is not the same as voting intention, however.
And it would be useful to have June 8 and June 12 data to establish how much of the loss of faith was an input to the GE result and how much a consequence?
Anyhow she may be gone, soon.
In any event the Social care crap is dead, the winter fuel allowance will remain---Hurrah!/sorted
I am enjoying the colossal reverse ferret on both sides:
Before the GE:
Leavers: May needs a big majority to secure a good deal.
Remainers The size of the majority is irrelevant.
After the GE:
Remainers: May needs a big majority to secure a good deal.
Leavers: The size of the majority is irrelevant.
It sounds like the Finsbury Park attacker had mental health issues.
http://www.onthisday.com/events/june/19
The perception, which is reflected in the reality of votes is that Corbyn did better than expected because he is sincere, and May the opposite. Perhaps finally politicians will tell us what they think and allow us to decide rather than avoid questions.
I've no idea why anybody would pay a polling company anymore.
Messy ....
Tuition fees, dementia tax, heating allowance, all far more important. I get the impression that to some on here this is their only contact with the outside world. I've never known a group of self appointed experts so consistently wrong.
Exactly the same applies to many of the far left protests ("Maggie Maggie Maggie out out out!" and all that). Essentially organisers of demos need to decide if they're going to indulge themselves and feel good or want to change the minds of the people they're trying to influence. The former is more usual, and it's hard to think of a mass protest that has really changed policy, except for the poll tax riots.
Theresa May is now associated with negative issues affecting older people and the recent negative media coverage of her leadership, will also have damaged her reputation. Can May recover from this ? Will the Tory party allow May time to recover ?
How often did Corbyn mention Brexit? It's irrelevant to all but a few naysayers on here.
What would you say is the number one issue that decided your vote at the last General Election?
OA (Con voter)
BREXIT: 12 (18)
NHS: 10 (2)
Party Leader: 8 (12)
Economy: 8 (11)
Tribal Loyalty: 8 (8)
Education: 3 (1)
Pensions/Retirement: 0 (0)
I was on the Countryside march, almost by mistake. I was having a dirty weekend in London with my then-gf, and when we left the hotel in the morning we sort-of got dragged into it. As we're both country folk at heart, we joined in. It was my first, and so far only, protest march.
It was great fun. And I can assure you that from my perspective, the antis who were lining the route were the ones doing the unpleasant shouting. In fact, from memory some of it was *very* unpleasant. But I only saw a small portion of the march, and I daresay you only saw a small portion of the antis.
It all ended when we got to Hyde Park and sat down for a champagne and strawberry picnic with a random family who invited us to join them. That was my abiding memory of the spirit of the protest.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/youthquake-behind-labour-election-surge-divides-generations
The disappearing class basis for voting and the gender difference have been noted before, but the Labour surge in the not-quite-so-young group is significant, and there's more detail on actual turnout figures. The elderly vote stayed loyal to the Tories despite everything. As Mike observes, the Tories should be worried that one of the lynchpins of that (PM favourability) now seems to be disappearing, though as the older voters stayed Tory despite everything that came up in the election, I wonder if that cohort will ever switch while they're still with us.
You are the antithesis of the bloke on the Clapham omnibus, completely out of touch with why people vote.
Labour voters:
NHS: 21
Tribal Loyalty: 11
Welfare: 7
Brexit: 6
Economy: 6
Party Leader: 6
Pensions/Retirement: 1
You're in a state of delusion
- Voters overall
- Conservative voters
- Lib Dem voters
- UKIP voters
What is it they're not accepting?
Its Labour voters who are less motivated by Brexit - which given their parties confused position on Brexit is hardly surprising.
Your figures are misleading, 22% of UKIP voters is 150,000 people, even a party whose very existence was based on Brexit could only get 22%. Similar with the Libs.
This election was around May's arrogant assumption and Corbyn's unexpected ability to mobilise the young.
She didn't expect it to be that many.
Brexit was the single most important issue in deciding the vote of Conservative, Lib Dem and UKIP voters.
'You lied to us!'
'Yes, but when we told you the truth you wouldn't vote for us'
We'll not be able to judge any manifestos as they won't have realistic meat in them ever again. And we've done that to ourselves.
Incidentally, the other effect was to damage the CA's ability to influence MPs on any other subject. They tried hard to shake off the "all about hunting" image but never succeeded, whereas an organisation like BASC - which is all about shooting and might be expected to get a similar reaction - has always successfully engaged with MPs.
A concern, but as May seems destined to go before the next election, isn't the figure that counts how her successor is seen?
Probably favours Hammond/Davis, and not Boris, I'd guess.
There has never been any treaty obligation for us to go maroon, and - indeed - one other EU state has a blue/black passport.
The conventions on passports are covered by the UK's membership of the ICAO, and the EU is not a signatory of the treaties that bind it. In the 1980s, the ICAO established guidelines for passport size, and for machine readable elements.
Where the EU was involved was that it passed, in 1981, a non-binding recommendation that EU member states should have similar coloured passports (which, in itself, was in-line with ICAO guidelines that continental areas have similar passports). And hence the fact that while Norway, Russia, Turkey and Greenland are not members of the EU, they all have maroon passports too. (Mexico, the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and almost all of the Americas have blue or black passports. The majority of Africa has green.)
-- just to add, the EU does require us to have certain text on the passport which will obviously go post Brexit. I think it also requires us to have a page in the passport with the details in all EU languages. Under ICAO guidelines, I believe a passport is only required to have the host country's language plus one of English, French and Russian.
Corbyn and Hannan were the worst offenders of course, but May and Osborne hardly emerge better.
It is said we get the politicians we deserve. Boy, we must have done something bad.
My contender for the worst is the proposal that a National Care Service could be established for 3 billion pounds.
I really don't know how you prevent political parties from lying. It has been a recurring feature of the Sindy & Brexit referendums and the general election. People want to believe the lies.
FWIW, I'd be delighted if a National Care Service could be set up. But, talk is cheap. If you don't start with a proper budget and costing, then the proposal will come to nothing.
EG we have English and French, is that necessary as the French is the plus one? Or could we just have English alone if we wanted to? Not that I see any reason we would.
@rcs1000 thanks for saying where he is partisan - I have never read any of his writings on Brexit so I wouldn't know. On domestic politics he's surely one of our best reporters, ahead of Wintour and Harris.
Edit - I note you qualified that after I posted as well.
That might just be because - having written the book on him - his career was in part linked to Osborne's fortunes.
That being said, if the French behave unreasonably during Brexit negotiations, I think the threat of having Russian as our second language might be enough to bring some concessions. They've always been touchy about their language.
(Of course, you can see ICAO guidelines come from a cold war period, when English and Russian were the languages of the super-powers and French the historic language of diplomacy.)
In fact, May tried to begin the process of reducing pensioner benefits, a process that we all agree has to be undertaken. She paid such a devastating price that no-one is likely to try it again, or at least put it in a manifesto again.
The dementia tax, as you know, is an improvement on the present situation for dementia sufferers. It was a sh1tty idea, but is actually better than the sh1t that happens presently.
If Kaufman condemned Palestinian violence with the crisp impatience of a man keen to reach the comma, he took his time on the outrages of the pre-state militias who drove out the British.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/gerald-kaufman-labour-hero-jewish-villain/
But really, the manifesto was calculated to upset young people, old people, and middle -aged people.