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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour continues to lose the economy blame game: EdM needs a new Shadow Chancellor
It’s now two and a half years since Ed Balls became shadow chancellor and, as the chart above shows, there’s been very little change in public perceptions over who is to blame for the cuts. The charge that it’s “Labour’s fault” continues to resonate.
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Is it not generally acknowledged that being gay is genetic? One is no more in control of one's sexual orientation as one's skin colour.
But how could such a genetic trait continue, if it was so self-obviously disastrous to the continuation of the gene? Well: that'll be society. If you make it unacceptable to be gay, then gay men (and women) will find themselves in marriages to people whom they do not find attractive, and will procreate.
As a result, laws (and societal norms) against homosexuality encourage its survival. If it were acceptable, then it would soon die out.
I remember reading at some point that the percentage of gay people is higher in the American South/Bible Belt than in other parts of the US. The article argued it was precisely because of the cultural attitudes you suggest
Appointing Darling would be a step backwards, even though I don't personally think he did a terrible job as chancellor - the problems he was dealing with were mostly the fault of his predecessor.
Appointing Cooper wouldn't work - the attack line (rightly or wrongly) would be that there's not really been a change, and that Balls is pulling the ropes behind the scenes.
Then there are the political considerations - anyone appointed to the shadow chancellor role would be in a prime position to take over from Miliband if there needs to be a change in leadership. He might want someone in place he can trust.
I think there's a perception here (across party lines) that Brown and Balls were bad and Darling was less bad or good, but whether that's justified or not, it's not clear that floating voters will understand the distinction.
I like Mike's suggestion of Cooper or Reeves. Balls is good on the attack, so ideally they'd have him shadowing IDS to make the most of any difficulties the government may have implementing the Universal Credit.
The headline on the BBC news website (and the conversation on Radio 5) indicates that Bryant has really made a horlicks of his speech. Any point he was trying to make will be lost in the argument over whether he has maligned the companies.
The second time out of two that a Labour attack line on a potentially important issue has been mucked up. Although Nick Palmer will probably say it's been handled well ...
If Labour wants me, I'm available to ell them how to avoid this sort of mess. I have no experience, but I could do a better job than they are at the moment.
"In his speech, Mr Bryant is due to say that such "cheap and nasty gimmicks" by the government left "a nasty taste in the mouth".
"More interested in finding voters lost to UKIP than in removing illegal immigrants, they have resorted to gimmicks that have not impressed anyone," he will claim." And of course his cheap and wholly inaccurate accusations are there to erm...
and there's this bit too... is there an epidemic? I've no idea but surely this hasn't just become an issue has it? If Nigel was suggesting it, Bryant would be implying it was racist but that's what Kippers really are.
"Mr Bryant will also propose new powers to tackle an "epidemic" of sham marriages, saying the way marriage law interacts with immigration is "not fit for purpose".
Besides, it becomes a question of competence - has he got the story right, or told the whole story? Put it together with the zero-hours mess, and it looks as though Labour is utterly rudderless.
Which is a shame, as there is certainly a problem with some zero-hours contracts.
Robin Brant @robindbrant
bryant's name & shame tesco & next immigration speech: sloppy & misinformed, will cloud over other legitimate criticisms of govt on borders.
Labour under EdM has become a very dangerous and ugly party.
Balls needs an attack weapon and poorer living standards might be the one to exploit.
The problem is the Blairites think Labour should accept the blame, apologise and move on. Miliband, perhaps to keep the peace, seems to have imposed an omerta. There are two problems with this: first, it has allowed the Conservatives to pin blame on Labour; second, it stops Labour making the complex and apparently paradoxical case that Osborne's austerity is self-defeating.
Changing the shadow chancellor does not alter the above.
Yvette is invisible against May - she's out ice-pixied by the Snow Queen. Their exchanges in the HoC are sub-zero. Perhaps moving her to DWP instead of Bryne?
If companies are importing migrants because they can pay less or employment costs are less, it is wrong. If they are hiring them because they cannot get the staff locally, then good.
I once got told that when the Queens Medical Centre in Nottingham opened in the late 1970s, there was a problem in that they could not get enough cleaning and other low-paid staff. It was so large that the immediately local resource of cleaners was not enough. To get over this, they ran minibuses to collect workers. I have no idea if this is true, but it would not surprise me.
If the supermarkets create a new centre that requires large numbers of low-paid staff, they should consider accessibility for those staff, especially if they don't drive.
Luke Akehurst @lukeakehurst
You know you are in Kent or Essex when you ask for Guardian at station newsagents and told "don't stock it, no demand"
Chinese ambassador Liu Xiaoming said : ‘Pandas are a Chinese national treasure. This historical agreement is a gift to the people of the UK from China.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23662668
Getting rid of Balls is not a "magic bullet" - why has Ed waited so long, why won't he repudiate Balls' prescription and so on......
It could decide that deficit reduction isn't particularly important, but if it does, it's going to have to make that argument with zeal. It hasn't so far, largely I suspect because while some would like to, not enough truly believe it.
That he couldn't get his basic facts right is just appallingly sloppy.
How can you get Dagenham in Kent? And EU working regulations wrong? It's the whole point of his speech.
That he's complaining about the labour market that his own party embraced with gusto is weird. Especially so when attacking Poles For Taking British Jobs.
" Fracking has become a national debate in Britain – and it’s one that I’m determined to win. If we don’t back this technology, we will miss a massive opportunity to help families with their bills and make our country more competitive. Without it, we could lose ground in the tough global race.
As with any advance in technology, fracking – drilling for so-called “unconventional” gas – has rightly drawn scrutiny. But a lot of myths have also sprung up. So today I want to set out why I support it – and deal with the worst of the myths at the same time.
First, fracking has real potential to drive energy bills down. Labour’s mismanagement of the economy means that many people are struggling with the cost of living today. Where we can act to relieve the pressure, we must. It’s simple – gas and electric bills can go down when our home-grown energy supply goes up. We’re not turning our back on low carbon energy, but these sources aren’t enough. We need a mix. Latest estimates suggest that there’s about 1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas lying underneath Britain at the moment – and that study only covers 11 counties. To put that in context, even if we extract just a tenth of that figure, that is still the equivalent of 51 years’ gas supply.
This reservoir of untapped energy will help people across the country who work hard and want to get on: not just families but businesses, too, who are really struggling with the high costs of energy. Just look at the United States: they’ve got more than 10,000 fracking wells opening up each year and their gas prices are three-and-a-half times lower than here. Even if we only see a fraction of the impact shale gas has had in America, we can expect to see lower energy prices in this country.
Secondly, fracking will create jobs in Britain. In fact, one recent study predicted that 74,000 posts could be supported by a thriving shale-gas industry in this country. It’s not just those involved in the drilling. Just as with North Sea oil and gas, there would be a whole supply chain of new businesses, more investment and fresh expertise..."
I'm sure that the NHS employs more Eastern Europeans than either Tesco or Next. I await Bryant's attack on the recruitment policies of the NHS with barely bated breath.
"Thirdly, fracking will bring money to local neighbourhoods. Companies have agreed to pay £100,000 to every community situated near an exploratory well where they’re looking to see if shale gas exists. If gas is then extracted, 1 per cent of the revenue – perhaps as much as £10 million – will go straight back to residents who live nearby. This is money that could be used for a variety of purposes – from reductions in council-tax bills to investment in neighbourhood schools. It’s important that local people share in the wealth generated by fracking."
His too far too fast mantra had some credibility at the time, but when there was no double dip and now there is some growth looks increasingly obselete. The country looks increasingly that a "stimulus" package is unnessecary, and potentially inflationary.
Balls is yesterdays man.
Hard to see Cooper taking it though, and Rachel Reeves is pretty poor. It does expose the lack of real talent on the opposition benches.
Is this consistent with the fact that she became an MP in 1959, and he did not retire as an MP until 1964? Could it really be the case that Churchill attended the House of Commons so infrequently in those last five years?
Victoria Freeman @make_trouble
Chris Bryant was the Minister for Europe whilst in govt. You'd think he understood the principle of free movement of labour across EU!
Darling was given a fire-fighting position at a time when his boss did not want to know the economic truth and did not want to put in place Darling's remedies. Darling is also preoccupied and retired mentally.
If you have Cooper you get Balls - and has she shown any spark of economic realism - let alone genius. In fact the Opposition front bench is devoid of talent , as well as having Brownian contamination.
EdM just has to live dangerously and appoint someone (before this autumn conference) from the 2010 intake and would agree with OGH it could well be a woman. Any ideas?
However, he could live more dangerously and persuade Cable to cross the floor - as he is always complaining publicly about the Coalition's policies and has not been very effective in his own ministry. Now that would set an interesting 2015 scenario!
Does EdM have the vision to live dangerously, or will he obey his union masters and keep Balls in place?
Don't forget, folks. It's all the fault of those nasty businesses. Those poor helpless politicians had nothing to do with any of it.
on immigration speech bryant tells bbc 'there are unscrupulous employers, i never intended this to include tesco and next incidentally'.
Of course I believe him...
Again the law of unintended consequences at work,
I'm waiting for Nick Palmer to come along to say that this is all brilliant for Labour.
So the role of SCotE is key to the presentation of the party. As with those who were claiming that Osborne had to go 6 months ago it has to be acknowledged that a change is an admission of defeat and having lost the argument. So Balls will not be moved.
What he, and Labour, really need are some new songs to sing. The too far, too fast line never bore any relationship with reality as Tim indirectly pointed out here about 3K times. It got some traction when the economy was flatlining but looks increasingly daft now.
It would be completely hypocritical of Labour to complain that Osborne has stoked a consumer boom but that should not stop them and is better way to go than the old Reagan line of "are you better off than you were 5 years ago?" The latter risks both a repeat of the too far too fast mistake and people saying it is your fault as shown by the above polling. When politicians have tried everything else sometimes they have to resort to the truth.
Just like EdM refused to name his *predators* either.
Empty rhetoric.
1) they possess the skills successive Labour and Tory governments have banished in the UK with their obsession with useless Higher Education awards for people who should never be anywhere near a university
2) the continuing lack of willingness of so many British people to work.
Of the jobs I have advertised in my current trading year, I have placed 1 British worker in a job. For all the other jobs, the only candidates who actually turned up, started work and stayed in the jobs are from Central or Eastern Europe. Last year I lost thousands of pounds in fees because British candidates consistently couldn't be bothered either to turn up for interviews or start work if chosen for the jobs.
None of my clients are looking for cheap labour. They only seek workers who will turn up when they are supposed to and do the job they are being paid to do during working hours.
Typical response from an 18 year old. "Do I have to turn up for work every day at 8am?"
The benefit culture has a long way to go before it ceases to encourage too many not to bother working and choosing unemployment as a lifestyle.
That's a lot of 24hrs news cycles away.
Jonathan Badyal @JonathanBadyal
#Labour attack businesses for employing immigrants, yet accuse the Govt of racism for removing ILLEGAL immigrants. #shambles
This post is in no way related to my Balls next CoE betslip.
Absolutely agree. The Labour party have not yet woken up to the fact that we are part of a global economy where costs, wages and prices are assessed at a global level.
The scary thing that is now happening is that most of the overseas graduates that we interview are now better qualified than UK graduates, have better English (and foreign languages) and far better general knowledge.
More vitally their specialism is built on a broad skills base (which ours used to be) and so they have great advantages to the employer (having more transferable skills) than the UK graduate who tends to have a narrow skills base.
Of course it stems from their school education, where not enough of the basics are taught and learned.
It goes without saying that these overseas graduates (i.e. outside of Western Europe) are very reliable and are very keen to get the job. This is evidenced in our initial Skype interviews where the overseas graduate is dressed as for a formal interview, but often the UK graduate is in shorts and t-shirt. Just reveals the difference in mental attitude between the two.
As @foxinsoxuk said, we may start them on a slightly lower salary, but they soon prove their worth very quickly and we have to pay well to retain them.
Is this "splurge" before or after he has got the OK from his paymasters?
Or is EdM sacking from the platform (in front of those who will be sat on that platform) instead of using text or twitter?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
Expatriates giving up their nationality at U.S. embassies climbed to 1,131 in the three months through June from 189 in the year-earlier period, according to Federal Register figures published today. That brought the first-half total to 1,810 compared with 235 for the whole of 2008.
The U.S., the only nation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that taxes citizens wherever they reside, is searching for tax cheats in offshore centers, including Switzerland, as the government tries to curb the budget deficit. Shunned by Swiss and German banks and facing tougher asset-disclosure rules under the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, more of the estimated 6 million Americans living overseas are weighing the cost of holding a U.S. passport.
“With the looming deadline for Fatca, more and more U.S. citizens are becoming aware that they have U.S. tax reporting obligations,” said Matthew Ledvina, a U.S. tax lawyer at Anaford AG in Zurich. “Once aware, they decide to renounce their U.S. citizenship.”
Fatca requires foreign financial institutions to report to the Internal Revenue Service information about financial accounts held by U.S. taxpayers, or held by foreign entities in which U.S. taxpayers hold a substantial ownership interest. It was estimated to generate $8.7 billion over 10 years, according to the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.
Delaying Implementation
The 2010 Fatca law requires banks to withhold 30 percent from “certain U.S.-connected payments” to some accounts of American clients who don’t disclose enough information to the IRS. While banks can sign agreements to report to the IRS individually, many are precluded from doing so by privacy laws in their jurisdictions.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-09/americans-giving-up-passports-jump-sixfold-as-tougher-rules-loom
I agree that Chris Bryant feels strongly about the immigrant workers. Indeed so strongly that he has attacked himself for his speech.
Home Office source re Bryant: "We hope there isn't a reshuffle as we'd like to keep him."
RT @Jamin2g Chris Bryant is essentially having an argument with himself and losing. #radio4today
I think it would make an interesting debate where a much loved industrial process (coal mining) had the same scrutiny as a proposed one.
I'm looking forward to the Balcombe protesters moving to our last few coal mines to protest about the radioactivity from them.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_the_coal_industry#Radiation_exposure
Having said France is out of the recession a couple of weeks ago he's now forecasting the economy will shrink by 0.1%.
Mail for you - third spreadsheet
Owen Jones@OwenJones842m
Right, off to adopt the foetal position until Labour sort themselves out
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges28m
Chris Bryant basically ended by attacking himself for undermining his own ridiculous silly season message.
James Kirkup@jameskirkup34m
This @chrisbryantmp Today prog interview is truly painful. Fortunately for him there's not a Labour reshuffle coming up. Oh.
Going well then....
Just once, I would love to hear a politician give a justification for citizenism (giving more moral weight to UK citizens over foreigners).
After 3 years, it is also clear that Labour got the leader the public doesn't want.
Very funny to see Labour being so cack-handed in the media. When their spin-doctors have to resort to whining they are the victims of "silly season reporting", then the game is up. Labour used to be very sure footed on its PR. Of course, that was when it was very, very good at doing politics. Experience proved it to be very, very poor at doing governing. Now it has no coherent message, Labour's sole argument being that the Coalition have done a poor job at clearing up the mess that, er, Labour left. Yesterday's men seeking to spread the blame for yesterday's feck-ups. There is no obvious (or for that matter any deeply hidden) answer to the question "Labour: why would you?"
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
(I think I first went on record here saying this when OGH was urging we pile in to a Labour overall majority....)
What an absolute Bloody CAR CRASH of an in interview that was.
If he wants to look at why British workers can't get British jobs then he needs to have a good look closer to home. Labour run Sheffield Council rejected a huge Next store to be built near the Meadowhall shop centre. Story here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-23182687
Fortunately it's now been overturned by public enquiry, but that was no thanks to Labour.
A lovely google doodle this morning. It involves a possibly-dead cat, so should please both Plato and Tim.
There is a reason many Europeans have a good command of English. Most of the music they listen to is sung in English.
Ray Collins, head of Labour trade union review, earns £12K a year from a firm trying to win business from Unite thetim.es/19cagsY
All things being equal the foreign workers performed better and got the jobs.
But closer to home there is another issue.
I also found women had to match the "baby test" or they were rejected.
If they had had their kids and did not want more it was acceptable, if they were young and unmarried or young foreign and married they were rejected on many occasions.
That is the real issue in job recruitment, how can women get a fair deal when employers do not want them off on maternity leave for two or three years in the next six or seven.
As I got paid solely on full time placements I worked out what employers wanted so that I got paid after getting many female candidates rejected who were more than suitable but did not pass the "baby test".
"After Labour's summer slumber, Bryant is attempting to win some favourable headlines today with his speech criticising "unscrupulous employers", most notably Tesco and Next, for using foreign workers to undercut their domestic counterparts. But unfortunately for the shadow immigration minister, his appearance on the Today programme this morning turned into a car crash performance worthy of The Thick Of It.
The preview of the speech in yesterday's Telegraph suggested that Bryant would criticise Tesco for moving its distribution centre to Kent and telling staff that "they could only move to the new centre if they took a cut in pay. The result? A large percentage of the staff at the new centre are from Eastern bloc." When Evan Davis noted that Tesco had responded by pointing out that no such distribution centre exists, a flustered Bryant replied: "I don't know where Kent came into it, it was always Essex...I don't know how the word Kent got into it" before falling back on the defence that he hadn't "said anything yet" and that it was not "all that fruitful" to focus on specifics.
But the backtracking continued as Bryant claimed that his attack on "unscrupulous employers whose only interest seems to be finding labour as cheaply as possible" did not refer to Tesco and Next. They were, he said, "good employers" who "often go the extra mile to find good local workers" all but disowning the criticisms of both companies that appeared in the Telegraph. He said of Next, for instance: "Look at Next PLC, who last year brought 500 Polish workers to work in their South Elmsall [West Yorkshire] warehouse for their summer sale and another 300 this summer.
"They were recruited in Poland and charged £50 to find them accommodation. The advantage to Next? They get to avoid Agency Workers Regulations which apply after a candidate has been employed for over 12 weeks, so Polish temps end up considerably cheaper than the local workforce which includes many former Next employees."
One was left with the impression that, in an attempt to win an easy headline, Bryant had spun his speech to the Telegraph as a full frontal attack on Tesco and Next leaving him open to the charge of inaccuracy. After much prodding by Davis, he eventually conceded: "It is entirely my responsibility for my speech and the briefing of my speech beforehand".
"Indeed, the failure to get basic facts straight seriously undermines Bryant, who has just made a catastrophic appearance on Today (more on that later). And it embarrasses Ed Miliband, making his commitment to control immigration look insincere."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/bryants-migrant-workers-boob-adds-to-pressure-on-ed-miliband/
Miss Plato, are you suggesting that Bryant's performance was pants?
RT @LabourHistory: Today in 1975 inflation hit a postwar record of 26.9%
Simply because I don't think the 30 odd % who entirely blame the last Govt, or equally partisan / stupid 20 odd who entirely blame this Govt, will change their minds or decide the outcome in 2010.
The key segment is the 20 odd % who hold a more realistic belief that the last Govt takes some blame for presiding over the crisis, this Govt takes some blame for implementing the cuts in a somewhat cackhanded manner (or some variation of that theme).
I'm in the last group, but that certainly won't stop me voting Labour or Lib Dem in order to get rid of the Tories.
This does not solve the problem of course. When international travel and qualifications were difficult this was a marginal thing. Now it is easy and it is not. It forces all countries to lift their game educationally and in terms of cultural values recognising the importance of work and the need to earn a living. That is a big change brought about by internationalism but I do not believe for a minute we are alone in finding it difficult.
It needs to drive changes to our education system, to our benefits system and, more amorphously, to an ending of the sense of entitlement that is so prevalent in the west as a whole. This is the task of the current and indeed all future governments of whatever stripe. Those who criticise Cameron for going on about the global race are simply showing themselves to be a part of the problem rather than the solution.
But Ed Balls is secure as Shadow Chancellor because Dave publicly urged Ed Miliband to sack Ed Balls.
Off topic, Chris Bryant should have remembered the wise words of that great Irish philosopher, Ronan Keating, You say it best when you say nothing at all.