Worth noting the years being compared with if we're drawing conclusions. We were doing well in 2012 (Swindon), not so much in 2011 (Oulton, Skelton) and 2010 was presumably on GE day (Merton). Thus the Swindon result isn't terrible and the Oulton result isn't fabulous. I'd guess the Merton figures will be well down all round.
Twitter The Economist @TheEconomist 3m The White House announced on August 7th that Barack Obama was cancelling a Moscow summit with Vladimir Putin http://econ.st/15MMXal
Ed's best ignoring it all and staying ex communicado on holiday.
"Crisis? What crisis?"
In Oulton Labour's share of the votes went up from just under 30% to around 40%. If that is bad, I will take it.
But as Mark Senior points out UKIP is falling hard.
And on that basis the Labour win looks vulnerable.
If Labour cannot assert their lead in mid term and win wards in, say, Swindon, then Ed ain't going to be in No 10 for 2015 Christmas. Probably won't even be LOTO.
Worth noting the years being compared with if we're drawing conclusions. We were doing well in 2012 (Swindon), not so much in 2011 (Oulton, Skelton) and 2010 was presumably on GE day (Merton). Thus the Swindon result isn't terrible and the Oulton result isn't fabulous (though UKIP should feel a bit chuffed at their showing from a start of 0). I'd guess the Merton figures will be well down all round.
UKIP were not starting from 0 , they were starting from winning the CC division in May !!!!!!!!!!
Worth noting the years being compared with if we're drawing conclusions. We were doing well in 2012 (Swindon), not so much in 2011 (Oulton, Skelton) and 2010 was presumably on GE day (Merton). Thus the Swindon result isn't terrible and the Oulton result isn't fabulous (though UKIP should feel a bit chuffed at their showing from a start of 0). I'd guess the Merton figures will be well down all round.
UKIP were not starting from 0 , they were starting from winning the CC division in May !!!!!!!!!!
Fair enough - I edited out my comment after seeing your earlier post, but you saw it first!
Ed's best ignoring it all and staying ex communicado on holiday.
"Crisis? What crisis?"
In Oulton Labour's share of the votes went up from just under 30% to around 40%. If that is bad, I will take it.
But as Mark Senior points out UKIP is falling hard.
And on that basis the Labour win looks vulnerable.
If Labour cannot assert their lead in mid term and win wards in, say, Swindon, then Ed ain't going to be in No 10 for 2015 Christmas. Probably won't even be LOTO.
That tells me UKIP's fall did not help the Tories ! Tories were after all only 28 behind last time.
Twitter The Economist @TheEconomist 3m The White House announced on August 7th that Barack Obama was cancelling a Moscow summit with Vladimir Putin http://econ.st/15MMXal
Ed's best ignoring it all and staying ex communicado on holiday.
"Crisis? What crisis?"
In Oulton Labour's share of the votes went up from just under 30% to around 40%. If that is bad, I will take it.
But as Mark Senior points out UKIP is falling hard.
And on that basis the Labour win looks vulnerable.
If Labour cannot assert their lead in mid term and win wards in, say, Swindon, then Ed ain't going to be in No 10 for 2015 Christmas. Probably won't even be LOTO.
That tells me UKIP's fall did not help the Tories ! Tories were after all only 28 behind last time.
Twitter The Economist @TheEconomist 3m The White House announced on August 7th that Barack Obama was cancelling a Moscow summit with Vladimir Putin http://econ.st/15MMXal
Congratulations fitalass, that's more contemporary than claiming Richard Nabavi and Antifrank stopped you posting betting tips or Carola stopped you being yourself
MODERATED
Considerably more contemporary than Cam's date nights, and that gets raised ad nauseam
Ed's best ignoring it all and staying ex communicado on holiday.
"Crisis? What crisis?"
In Oulton Labour's share of the votes went up from just under 30% to around 40%. If that is bad, I will take it.
But as Mark Senior points out UKIP is falling hard.
And on that basis the Labour win looks vulnerable.
If Labour cannot assert their lead in mid term and win wards in, say, Swindon, then Ed ain't going to be in No 10 for 2015 Christmas. Probably won't even be LOTO.
That tells me UKIP's fall did not help the Tories ! Tories were after all only 28 behind last time.
Convince yourself, Surby!
I don't have to. The figures speak for themselves.
Hope YouGov has the lead down to five tomorrow, when the PB Tories have to intellectualise As s Father's vote slipping despite the tossing it's just not right
Come on tim, you know that we'd have already heard about it from the Sun if it were good for the blues.
Has Michael Green replied to Lord Ashcroft's request to find out the number of Tory Party members.
The delay could be because:
- there are so many that it is taking ages for the "coffee mornings" to count them.
- there is no organisation to do the count
What's the secret ?
Could be something stupider, like losing the database and not having any backups.
Anyhow it seems like a good place to start for Messina. No point in trying to teach them advanced stuff about individually-tailored data-driven campaigns until they've mastered the basics like "how to count your members".
@JohnLoony That description still gave it a chance of being an accurate although rather gruesome photograph. I didn't look at it first time it was posted.
Anyway, Clinton would have been 17 in 1963, not 19 so that "Historical Picture" can be safely binned.
Comments
The Economist @TheEconomist 3m
The White House announced on August 7th that Barack Obama was cancelling a Moscow summit with Vladimir Putin http://econ.st/15MMXal
Labour Party: Caroline Cooper-Marbiah: 1685
Conservative Party: Peter Lord: 441
UKIP: Shafqat Janjua: 157
Liberal Democrats: Phil Ling: 52
And on that basis the Labour win looks vulnerable.
If Labour cannot assert their lead in mid term and win wards in, say, Swindon, then Ed ain't going to be in No 10 for 2015 Christmas. Probably won't even be LOTO.
https://twitter.com/WimbledonNews/status/365604755873083392/photo/1
Council now LD 10 Lab 5 .
Anyhow it seems like a good place to start for Messina. No point in trying to teach them advanced stuff about individually-tailored data-driven campaigns until they've mastered the basics like "how to count your members".
Anyway, Clinton would have been 17 in 1963, not 19 so that "Historical Picture" can be safely binned.
@MSmithsonPB
Today's YouGov sees the LAB lead down from yesterday's 8% to 4%
CON 34
LAB 38
LD 9
UKIP 12
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-23625465