I think the outstanding bet from those Mike identifies is the Julian Huppert one. I'm on!
George Galloway at 3/1 is a maybe IMO. Very hard to assess, but I'm a bit cautious because presumably Labour won't be caught unawares this time round.
I'm unconvinced by UKIP in Eastleigh. The February by-election was a special case, a harmless protest, and involved a suspiciously large number of LibDem transfers which I think in a GE will go back. It looks to me like a LibDem hold, helped by the non-LibDem vote being split between UKIP and Con.
I don't know the area massively well, but I'm not sure how an area that contains the massive site of Toton sidings and depot can be called 'almost entirely residential' ... :-)
What do you think would cause the uproar?
It's not half as massive as it was, and housing has been encroaching from all sides - there are two massive estates that have been built in the last 20 years. Routes to the area are so-so - the tram will help a lot if you want to get to the city, but otherwise it's all congested at rush hour now. The station will turn it from a sleepy residential area with quite pleasant green areas and an underused sidings into a bustling business suburb with loads of traffic, hotels, transport businesses, shops, etc. That's not all bad, but it's very different. The uproar would focus firstly on traffic, but underlying it would be a general change of atmosphere.
But as I said, the distance in time and sense of inevitability is dampening feelings. "This may well all look very different in 15-20 years!" doesn't really stir the blood.
Fair enough - it's (gulp!) over 20 years since I was last in the sidings, although I've been in the area since then, mainly for walking.
When this was first announced, I posted on here that a problem I could foresee was congestion - the A52 isn't the best road in the world. I know there's planned to be a new roundabout on the A52, but I haven't seen anything about upgrading the road to the M1.
But I'm not 100% convinced the changes will be as severe as you think atm. But we won't know that until the detailed plans are announced for the area by the council. And that is where you will come in ...
I hate to say this but Labour will not re-take Bradford West. The circumstances have not chnaged and those voters know that 99% of the time he will vote with Labour.
It has been discussed last week too but I was reading from the ipad which didn't allow me to log in for some mysterious reason...
anyway, Labour have not selected a candidate yet. Actually, more than that: the selection process has not started at all. In spring when the NEC decided on AWS/Open selections, decision on Bradford East was delayed for further consultation with CLP....which suggests they wanted to push an AWS there....unless the CLP wanted an AWS and the national party didn't like it (it's usually not a common scenario..but I know of a CLP asking for AWS and being given an Open selection)
I hate to say this but Labour will not re-take Bradford West. The circumstances have not chnaged and those voters know that 99% of the time he will vote with Labour.
Given his well below speaking (8 debates) and Voting (12%) records Labour are not short of ammunition...
I hate to say this but Labour will not re-take Bradford West. The circumstances have not chnaged and those voters know that 99% of the time he will vote with Labour.
Given his well below speaking (8 debates) and Voting (12%) records Labour are not short of ammunition...
Is As A Father going to boycott twitter? Where would he post the photo stunts with bereaved relatives and how would we know he was cheering on sporting events?
So still no policies then ? Nothing worth saying ? Even his brother's now saying Ed's crap.
Given that Mumsnet is packed with tribal aggressive feminists and lefties who pile onto anyone who disagrees - I wonder why any politician courts their opinion.
I think the outstanding bet from those Mike identifies is the Julian Huppert one. I'm on!
George Galloway at 3/1 is a maybe IMO. Very hard to assess, but I'm a bit cautious because presumably Labour won't be caught unawares this time round.
I'm unconvinced by UKIP in Eastleigh. The February by-election was a special case, a harmless protest, and involved a suspiciously large number of LibDem transfers which I think in a GE will go back. It looks to me like a LibDem hold, helped by the non-LibDem vote being split between UKIP and Con.
They also did well in the May 2013 elections there.
Golly - in a glass of red wine? Wouldn't that sting?
An Australian politician has resigned after he was caught sexting lewd pictures to his mistress.
Married Peter Dowling, a member of Queensland state's ruling conservative Liberal National Party, has also been accused of using government funds to conduct a two-year affair.
The woman claiming to be his mistress wrote to state parliament Speaker Fiona Simpson detailing their trysts.
Dowling has been with wife Helen for 27 years and they have two children together, reported the Huffington Post.
But, the mistress said that she had been assured his marriage was just for show and that he intended to leave her after the 2015 election.
She added that she was just one of many woman the politician had an affair with.
The Courier-Mail has also claimed that it has access to: ‘Several explicit text messages sent from Mr. Dowling's mobile phone to the woman, including a picture of his penis in a glass of red wine, a self-shot image of his crotch while wearing boxer shorts, and a full frontal picture of his genitalia.’
Mark Easton @BBCMarkEaston UK pop grew 419k (0.7%) in year to June 2012, #ons estimates. 61% of inc. due to more births than deaths, 39% to migration.
That is a very small growth. The world growth rate is around 2%. Before anyone talks about the size of the UK, the world also has the same area as last year.
Are there any seats with Conservatives being favourites to win ? There should be plenty as there are many PBTories here who can come up with numerous scenarios how the Tories would win an absolute majority.
Remember, this party has not won an absolute majority for 21 years !
Are there any seats with Conservatives being favourites to win ? There should be plenty as there are many PBTories here who can come up with numerous scenarios how the Tories would win an absolute majority.
Remember, this party has not won an absolute majority for 21 years !
Plenty to choose from here:
LDs are defending 5 seats with a majority of less than 1,000. Labour: 15 seats and the Cons: 18 seats.
I like the 3.25 I have on Galloway, he is a fighter above all else and could well be the blot on Labour's good night in 2015. Also he is the incumbent/
Kind of on the UKIP bet by proxy via my 2 or more seat bets (If they win Eastleigh then they will probably get at least one more at 8-1.
Lib Dem bets... Don't really want to touch them with a barge pole to be perfectly honest. 6-4 doesn't tempt me.
Are there any seats with Conservatives being favourites to win ? There should be plenty as there are many PBTories here who can come up with numerous scenarios how the Tories would win an absolute majority.
Remember, this party has not won an absolute majority for 21 years !
Plenty to choose from here:
LDs are defending 5 seats with a majority of less than 1,000. Labour: 15 seats and the Cons: 18 seats.
See UKPollingReport for list of seats to defend.
So I take it the punters are making the Tories favourites to win those seats ? It is no point having to get a 0.5% swing to take a seat if your votes goes in a different direction.
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
If he could just keep his plummy accented mouth shut...
Are there any seats with Conservatives being favourites to win ? There should be plenty as there are many PBTories here who can come up with numerous scenarios how the Tories would win an absolute majority.
Remember, this party has not won an absolute majority for 21 years !
Plenty to choose from here:
LDs are defending 5 seats with a majority of less than 1,000. Labour: 15 seats and the Cons: 18 seats.
See UKPollingReport for list of seats to defend.
So I take it the punters are making the Tories favourites to win those seats ? It is no point having to get a 0.5% swing to take a seat if your votes goes in a different direction.
You would have to analyse each seat and come to a conclusion for each one, but those 38 seats could make all the difference in 2015. Of course there will be surprises both ways as in 2010.
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
If he could just keep his plummy accented mouth shut...
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
If he could just keep his plummy accented mouth shut...
Surbiton.. It would all be ok if he had a regional accent then Scouse,Geordie, Cockney..Brummie just like most of the opposition front bench, and lets not forget dear old Harriet .. do you realise how stupid your remark is
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
If he could just keep his plummy accented mouth shut...
Good on you Surbiton, none of that One Nation nonsense for you...
Robin Brant @robindbrant confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
If he could just keep his plummy accented mouth shut...
Good on you Surbiton, none of that One Nation nonsense for you...
Living in Chiswick, travelling internationally for work and being an accountant are what Labour voters do. Admirable aspiration, but not if you talk like a BBC news reader and are a Tory.
You can get 3/1 on the Conservatives retaining Kingswood. Labour need a swing of 2.6% to take this seat. It has a first term incumbent Conservative MP. It is Labour target seat number 42.
You might if you so chose back the Conservatives to take Kingswood at 3/1, Labour to be the largest party in the House of Commons at 8/13 and see this as fairly close to an arb and a middle.
Given that Mumsnet is packed with tribal aggressive feminists and lefties who pile onto anyone who disagrees - I wonder why any politician courts their opinion.
It's dreadfully PC Guardian stuff.
sounds like prime territory for TSE, Sean T and HD2. We should have a book on how they would last before they get barred or prosecuted.
You can get 3/1 on the Conservatives retaining Kingswood. Labour need a swing of 2.6% to take this seat. It has a first term incumbent Conservative MP. It is Labour target seat number 42..
You can get 3/1 on the Conservatives retaining Kingswood. Labour need a swing of 2.6% to take this seat. It has a first term incumbent Conservative MP. It is Labour target seat number 42..
That's a super bet.
I'm baffled by its pricing. I'm on for the maximum £50 that shadsy allows.
"London also had the largest natural change of all regions as it recorded 86,000 more births than deaths in the past year while Scotland had the lowest with 4,200 more births than deaths."
Boris Johnson is a fertility symbol while Salmond is a sterility symbol.
Those Scottish Primary Schools that Eck preys upon will be empty unless the Scots get rid of tubby.
You can get 3/1 on the Conservatives retaining Kingswood. Labour need a swing of 2.6% to take this seat. It has a first term incumbent Conservative MP. It is Labour target seat number 42..
""My union is also concerned that the successful candidate has made it clear she backs Ed Miliband's view on changing the relationship between the Trade Union movement and the Labour Party. No doubt we may have to consider this when offering future support in any campaigns and elections." His comments come as Labour is embroiled in a row over union influence on candidate selection, centring on a disputed contest in Falkirk, Scotland. - sorry - non-story......
Jacob Rees Mogg doing the reputation of Eton the world of good again today I see, along with Dave and the million pound fracking stuff a case of checking the receipts, £30 k a year?
@laurapitel: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he is "shocked" at the views attributed to Traditional Britain Group + "can entirely disassociate" himself from them.
The views of this group on Doreen Lawrence have been expressed on here by a couple of posters, but the rest of the stuff will surprise even the PB Burleys
No policies ? No ? Not even a little one ? A teeny tiny announcement just to break the deadening silence ?
Labour at 1/4 in Wolverhampton SW is a better value bet than any of those. 0.9% swing needed, former Labour MP Rob Marris to contest the seat again, Conservative MP Uppal has built up next to no profile so new incumbancy effect will be minimal, demographic change favours Labour, and there's a significant (16%) LD vote in a Con/Lab marginal.
Labour at 1/4 in Wolverhampton SW is a better value bet than any of those. 0.9% swing needed, former Labour MP Rob Marris to contest the seat again, Conservative MP Uppal has built up next to no profile so new incumbancy effect will be minimal, demographic change favours Labour, and there's a significant (16%) LD vote in a Con/Lab marginal.
1/4 is a massively different ballgame to 3-1 though, you'd need to risk £600 and have that held for 2 years compared to £50, to win £150. Also it is the pseudo-Arb potential of the Kingswood seat for those of us with Long Labour positions that makes it so brilliant.
Kingswood does illustrate one point very nicely. When thinking about political betting, it's essential to keep in mind that the UK system is one where Parliament is made up of 650 constituencies. Seats are not awarded in abstract vote shares.
So if the Tories are 13/8 to be the largest party after the next election, marginal constituencies should be assessed against that yardstick to help decide which bets are relatively better than others. Kingswood is a seat that if Labour take, they will in all probability be the largest party, given where it lies on their target list. So if the Tories are much longer than 13/8 to take it, it is probably better to bet on them taking Kingswood than to bet on them being the largest party (it doesn't have to be a good bet, but it is probably relatively better). Conversely, if Labour are 1/4 to take Kingswood but 8/13 to be the largest party, then it is probably better to bet on them being the largest party. Local considerations are potentially relevant, but less so than is often claimed.
I wrote a bit about this before the last election on pb2:
Of course, the Conservatives underperformed against market expectations from that point but they still took Waveney, Nuneaton and Amber Valley – but not Dagenham & Rainham.
I think you missed the campaign on zero hour contracts, with all its revealed hypocracies, as Labours summer policy initiative. The two Eds seem to be working zero hours at present though.
Jacob Rees Mogg doing the reputation of Eton the world of good again today I see, along with Dave and the million pound fracking stuff a case of checking the receipts, £30 k a year?
@laurapitel: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he is "shocked" at the views attributed to Traditional Britain Group + "can entirely disassociate" himself from them.
The views of this group on Doreen Lawrence have been expressed on here by a couple of posters, but the rest of the stuff will surprise even the PB Burleys
No policies ? No ? Not even a little one ? A teeny tiny announcement just to break the deadening silence ?
Really showing your misogynistic side today - that's as bad or worse than racism!
I don't think fitalass' perpetual victimhood is related to her sex anymore than your empty anecdotes are related to yours.
Ah, but my anecdotes are not empty - they are based on meeting real people and having real conversations - both of which are totally unknown to you - buried in your bunker taking instructions from McBride.
I think you missed the campaign on zero hour contracts, with all its revealed hypocracies, as Labours summer policy initiative. The two Eds seem to be working zero hours at present though.
Jacob Rees Mogg doing the reputation of Eton the world of good again today I see, along with Dave and the million pound fracking stuff a case of checking the receipts, £30 k a year?
@laurapitel: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he is "shocked" at the views attributed to Traditional Britain Group + "can entirely disassociate" himself from them.
The views of this group on Doreen Lawrence have been expressed on here by a couple of posters, but the rest of the stuff will surprise even the PB Burleys
No policies ? No ? Not even a little one ? A teeny tiny announcement just to break the deadening silence ?
I think you missed the campaign on zero hour contracts, with all its revealed hypocracies, as Labours summer policy initiative. The two Eds seem to be working zero hours at present though.
Jacob Rees Mogg doing the reputation of Eton the world of good again today I see, along with Dave and the million pound fracking stuff a case of checking the receipts, £30 k a year?
@laurapitel: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he is "shocked" at the views attributed to Traditional Britain Group + "can entirely disassociate" himself from them.
The views of this group on Doreen Lawrence have been expressed on here by a couple of posters, but the rest of the stuff will surprise even the PB Burleys
No policies ? No ? Not even a little one ? A teeny tiny announcement just to break the deadening silence ?
"The two Eds seem to be working zero hours at present though."
That's the best we can hope for from those two serial wreckers. Long may it continue
Anyone know last night's Yougov ? It wasn't leaked yesterday. So probably not good for the Tories. Also UKIP share is quite important.
From my 6am post:
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th August - Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -30
Why is the CON share just so much more inconsistent than the Labour share. I'm not talking about the absolute numbers hre, in this post, but the variability on the CON numbers is well all over the shop compared to Labour's very very tight range.
Anyone know last night's Yougov ? It wasn't leaked yesterday. So probably not good for the Tories. Also UKIP share is quite important.
From my 6am post:
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th August - Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -30
Why is the CON share just so much more inconsistent than the Labour share. I'm not talking about the absolute numbers hre, in this post, but the variability on the CON numbers is well all over the shop compared to Labour's very very tight range.
Any ideas ?
Lots of votes on the fence between Con and UKIP, very susceptible to reminders that UKIP exist, especially when the pollster doesn't prompt for them.
Anyone know last night's Yougov ? It wasn't leaked yesterday. So probably not good for the Tories. Also UKIP share is quite important.
From my 6am post:
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th August - Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -30
Why is the CON share just so much more inconsistent than the Labour share. I'm not talking about the absolute numbers hre, in this post, but the variability on the CON numbers is well all over the shop compared to Labour's very very tight range.
Any ideas ?
YouGov range 2013:
Con: 27-35 Lab; 37-45 LibD: 8-13 UKIP: 7-17
So while proportionately Con is a bit more variable than Lab, UKIP in particular and the LibDems are a lot more variable....
Anyone know last night's Yougov ? It wasn't leaked yesterday. So probably not good for the Tories. Also UKIP share is quite important.
From my 6am post:
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th August - Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -30
Why is the CON share just so much more inconsistent than the Labour share. I'm not talking about the absolute numbers hre, in this post, but the variability on the CON numbers is well all over the shop compared to Labour's very very tight range.
Any ideas ?
Lots of votes on the fence between Con and UKIP, very susceptible to reminders that UKIP exist, especially when the pollster doesn't prompt for them.
One surprising thing about the seats UKIP 'won' in the May elections was that they're safe conservative seats rather than marginals.
Cambridge. Based on results since the GE this should be a Labour win. Libs having poor results in recent local elections and they had a terrible vote at the PCC election last November, when Labour won the Cambs City district by a mile..
@Plato It's completely inappropriate for him to put his penis in a glass of red wine. You need a Semillon.
Surely a Pinot Blanc?
Nope! GM techies have been working on a new grape variety to benefit the elderly and incontinent. They've crossed Pinot Noire with Pinot Gringio now being marketed as Pinot More. 8-)
I am finding the video on the BBC website of the two frightened young women who were burnt with acid slightly off-putting. It feels more than a little intrusive.
I don't mean this to be a BBC-bash (especially as I daresay other broadcasters are also using them), but it just feels wrong. The last thing they need are cameras being shoved into their faces and being shown all over the world.
Then again, the reason they shown them is because the broadcasters must think that people want to see them.
"Thousands of Londoners are employed by Labour councils on zero hours contracts that have been criticised by Ed Miliband, it emerged today.
They include 546 people directly employed by Newham — a flagship Labour borough where Mr Miliband made a speech recently attacking the exploitation of casual and agency workers."
Its great to be here in Newham, Labour Newham which has 546 people on zero hours contacts...er Ed you just said zero hours contracts, "keep people insecure."
We've seen it with schools and hospitals - the key things about population growth is pace and distribution and the extent to which these put pressure on local services.
At the risk of sounding more stupid than usual, what's the source/meaning of "PB Burleys"?
I've been on holiday...
You can choose between Aidan Burley a Tory MP who made some daft statements and had friends dressed as young Ed Balls, or Kay Burley whom most of the lefties fantisise about and project on to Plato and fitalass.
At the risk of sounding more stupid than usual, what's the source/meaning of "PB Burleys"?
I've been on holiday...
You can choose between Aidan Burley a Tory MP who made some daft statements and had friends dressed as young Ed Balls, or Kay Burley whom most of the lefties fantisise about and project on to Plato and fitalass.
At the risk of sounding more stupid than usual, what's the source/meaning of "PB Burleys"?
I've been on holiday...
You can choose between Aidan Burley a Tory MP who made some daft statements and had friends dressed as young Ed Balls, or Kay Burley whom most of the lefties fantisise about and project on to Plato and fitalass.
Good afternoon, Mr. Brooke.
A further choice would be Surbiton's Burley Policeman who enforce the integrity of our borders. A much misunderstood and occasionally misspelt group.
At the risk of sounding more stupid than usual, what's the source/meaning of "PB Burleys"?
I've been on holiday...
You can choose between Aidan Burley a Tory MP who made some daft statements and had friends dressed as young Ed Balls, or Kay Burley whom most of the lefties fantisise about and project on to Plato and fitalass.
Thanks. I think. Bit of weak epithet, no?
Well mentally I think they dress kay Burley up as a Nazi, it sort of kills two birds with one stone. But best ask tim on that one.
There's a place for zero hours contracts. I once worked on one and it was just what I wanted. Could combine it with other work, life and whatever.
Indeed. Zero-hour contracts are not 'bad' per se, but the way in which employers treat people on it. Some employers do treat people badly on them, but then I expect they're pretty bad employers no matter what..
It's just a effect of the need for a ever increasingly flexible work-force
I think it would be wrong for any employer to demand exclusivity without payment. Anybody on a zero hour contract should have the right to seek and do other work.
" Previous speakers at these dinners have included Simon Heffer, Francis Fulford, and Gerard Batten, M.E.P., whose wife is Asian."
Better Asian than Bongo-Bongan, I suppose.
Anyway, our Mr Batten is a staunch opponent of Spain's threat to impose a £43 border crossing charge on Gibaltarians.
He advocates strong intervention by the Royal Navy:
Britain on the other hand should slap [the Spanish] down immediately with counter measures. If the Royal Navy still has any ships left they should immediately scrutinize every Spanish vessel for possible smuggling etc. We cannot be too careful. Furthermore the Royal Navy should clamp down on the abuses of the industrialised Spanish fishing fleet and its illegal fishing. The Royal Navy could get some valuable hands-on practice in by stopping, boarding and inspecting these vessels.
And that's in the tourist season. Well done , Brussels.
Total unemployment also rose to 27.6%.
perhaps the prize for most dumb ass statement goes to Joe Biden:
US vice president Joe Biden said America had "a stake" in Greece's economic recovery and wanted the crisis-hit nation to stay in the eurozone.
"The administration has always taken the view that it's overwhelmingly in our interest to have Greece remain a strong and vital part of the eurozone," he said.
"We have a stake in Greece's success," Mr Biden added.
Clearly success has a different meaning in the US. The economics aren't too hot either.
The Labour Party's biggest individual donor calls on Ed Miliband to match Cameron's EU referendum pledge or risk losing the General Election.
John Mills, the opera-loving, multilingual businessman who regularly relaxes at his holiday home in the South of France said today:
"Ignoring voters' calls for a plebiscite would damage Labour's election hopes.
"Not having a commitment in the next Labour manifesto of some sort is going to prejudice the Labour chances," Mills told Reuters in a telephone interview on Monday.
"I can understand why the Labour leadership don't want to have a referendum, but I think they are going to have to weigh that up against the likelihood that a firm commitment not to have one would have a negative effect on the Labour vote."
Reporters were unable to locate Ed Miliband who is also believed to be enjoying a continental holiday.
Comments
George Galloway at 3/1 is a maybe IMO. Very hard to assess, but I'm a bit cautious because presumably Labour won't be caught unawares this time round.
I'm unconvinced by UKIP in Eastleigh. The February by-election was a special case, a harmless protest, and involved a suspiciously large number of LibDem transfers which I think in a GE will go back. It looks to me like a LibDem hold, helped by the non-LibDem vote being split between UKIP and Con.
When this was first announced, I posted on here that a problem I could foresee was congestion - the A52 isn't the best road in the world. I know there's planned to be a new roundabout on the A52, but I haven't seen anything about upgrading the road to the M1.
But I'm not 100% convinced the changes will be as severe as you think atm. But we won't know that until the detailed plans are announced for the area by the council. And that is where you will come in ...
It has been discussed last week too but I was reading from the ipad which didn't allow me to log in for some mysterious reason...
anyway, Labour have not selected a candidate yet. Actually, more than that: the selection process has not started at all. In spring when the NEC decided on AWS/Open selections, decision on Bradford East was delayed for further consultation with CLP....which suggests they wanted to push an AWS there....unless the CLP wanted an AWS and the national party didn't like it (it's usually not a common scenario..but I know of a CLP asking for AWS and being given an Open selection)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/katyballs/100070300/the-moaning-daleks-of-mumsnet-declare-war-on-the-new-doctor-who/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/george_galloway/bradford_west#numbers
Really showing your misogynistic side today - that's as bad or worse than racism!
He will be a pain in the.... though. And, of course full of himself. Probably with another new wife,,,
Labour - what's the point ?
It's dreadfully PC Guardian stuff.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2013/05/2013-county-election-results/
An Australian politician has resigned after he was caught sexting lewd pictures to his mistress.
Married Peter Dowling, a member of Queensland state's ruling conservative Liberal National Party, has also been accused of using government funds to conduct a two-year affair.
The woman claiming to be his mistress wrote to state parliament Speaker Fiona Simpson detailing their trysts.
Dowling has been with wife Helen for 27 years and they have two children together, reported the Huffington Post.
But, the mistress said that she had been assured his marriage was just for show and that he intended to leave her after the 2015 election.
She added that she was just one of many woman the politician had an affair with.
The Courier-Mail has also claimed that it has access to: ‘Several explicit text messages sent from Mr. Dowling's mobile phone to the woman, including a picture of his penis in a glass of red wine, a self-shot image of his crotch while wearing boxer shorts, and a full frontal picture of his genitalia.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2386676/Australian-MP-Peter-Dowling-quits-sexting-pictures-penis-glass-red-wine.html#ixzz2bN4qKnVe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Remember, this party has not won an absolute majority for 21 years !
"Ian Katz, husband of #Mumsnet's Justine Roberts, is editor of Newsnight"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/katyballs/100070300/the-moaning-daleks-of-netmums-declare-war-on-the-new-doctor-who/
LDs are defending 5 seats with a majority of less than 1,000.
Labour: 15 seats and the Cons: 18 seats.
See UKPollingReport for list of seats to defend.
Kind of on the UKIP bet by proxy via my 2 or more seat bets (If they win Eastleigh then they will probably get at least one more at 8-1.
Lib Dem bets... Don't really want to touch them with a barge pole to be perfectly honest. 6-4 doesn't tempt me.
Is the EU stopping Britain’s shale revolution?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/8990371/is-the-eu-stopping-britains-shale-revolution/
Not yet, but they might try......
confirmed: PM made a mistake on fracking when he said 'every time a well is dug immediately a million pounds goes to the local community'.
Robin Brant @robindbrant
downing street sources confirm £100k payment goes to local community immediately with potential for further 1% of revenues if successful.
Some way to go though as lending in 2012 at £16.4bn was somewhat short of the £36bn at the peak of the Brown boom in 2006.
You might if you so chose back the Conservatives to take Kingswood at 3/1, Labour to be the largest party in the House of Commons at 8/13 and see this as fairly close to an arb and a middle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10230417/Alex-Salmond-accused-of-lying-over-by-election-school-visit.html
If youse don't behave big Eck will see you.
More background:
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Anger-choice-outsider-candidate/story-19523531-detail/story.html#axzz2bNKr49gg
"London also had the largest natural change of all regions as it recorded 86,000 more births than deaths in the past year while Scotland had the lowest with 4,200 more births than deaths."
Boris Johnson is a fertility symbol while Salmond is a sterility symbol.
Those Scottish Primary Schools that Eck preys upon will be empty unless the Scots get rid of tubby.
His comments come as Labour is embroiled in a row over union influence on candidate selection, centring on a disputed contest in Falkirk, Scotland. - sorry - non-story......
So if the Tories are 13/8 to be the largest party after the next election, marginal constituencies should be assessed against that yardstick to help decide which bets are relatively better than others. Kingswood is a seat that if Labour take, they will in all probability be the largest party, given where it lies on their target list. So if the Tories are much longer than 13/8 to take it, it is probably better to bet on them taking Kingswood than to bet on them being the largest party (it doesn't have to be a good bet, but it is probably relatively better). Conversely, if Labour are 1/4 to take Kingswood but 8/13 to be the largest party, then it is probably better to bet on them being the largest party. Local considerations are potentially relevant, but less so than is often claimed.
I wrote a bit about this before the last election on pb2:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/constituency-betting-choosing-which.html
Of course, the Conservatives underperformed against market expectations from that point but they still took Waveney, Nuneaton and Amber Valley – but not Dagenham & Rainham.
That's the best we can hope for from those two serial wreckers. Long may it continue
In other news, IOS is spookily silent today.
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th August - Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -30
Any ideas ?
Most to blame for cuts:
Coalition: 24
Labour: 34
Bang on the average +10 Labour lead of 2012 and 2013 to date...
Con: 27-35
Lab; 37-45
LibD: 8-13
UKIP: 7-17
So while proportionately Con is a bit more variable than Lab, UKIP in particular and the LibDems are a lot more variable....
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
I don't mean this to be a BBC-bash (especially as I daresay other broadcasters are also using them), but it just feels wrong. The last thing they need are cameras being shoved into their faces and being shown all over the world.
Then again, the reason they shown them is because the broadcasters must think that people want to see them.
I hope they recover soon.
They include 546 people directly employed by Newham — a flagship Labour borough where Mr Miliband made a speech recently attacking the exploitation of casual and agency workers."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-councils-use-zero-hours-contracts-that-ed-miliband-opposes-8752004.html
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-councils-use-zero-hours-contracts-that-ed-miliband-opposes-8752004.html
Comedy Gold, first The Co-Op, now The Labour Party...
Labour much less variable more recently, since the 2013 figure doesn't account for a declining phase then a stationary phase.
morestupidthan usual, what's the source/meaning of "PB Burleys"?I've been on holiday...
A further choice would be Surbiton's Burley Policeman who enforce the integrity of our borders. A much misunderstood and occasionally misspelt group.
It's just a effect of the need for a ever increasingly flexible work-force
I think it would be wrong for any employer to demand exclusivity without payment. Anybody on a zero hour contract should have the right to seek and do other work.
Otherwise a retainer should be paid - by law.
Anyway, our Mr Batten is a staunch opponent of Spain's threat to impose a £43 border crossing charge on Gibaltarians.
He advocates strong intervention by the Royal Navy:
Britain on the other hand should slap [the Spanish] down immediately with counter measures. If the Royal Navy still has any ships left they should immediately scrutinize every Spanish vessel for possible smuggling etc. We cannot be too careful. Furthermore the Royal Navy should clamp down on the abuses of the industrialised Spanish fishing fleet and its illegal fishing. The Royal Navy could get some valuable hands-on practice in by stopping, boarding and inspecting these vessels.
These kippers are certainly tough talkers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/08/us-greece-unemployment-idUSBRE9770C020130808
perhaps the prize for most dumb ass statement goes to Joe Biden:
US vice president Joe Biden said America had "a stake" in Greece's economic recovery and wanted the crisis-hit nation to stay in the eurozone.
"The administration has always taken the view that it's overwhelmingly in our interest to have Greece remain a strong and vital part of the eurozone," he said.
"We have a stake in Greece's success," Mr Biden added.
Clearly success has a different meaning in the US. The economics aren't too hot either.
John Mills, the opera-loving, multilingual businessman who regularly relaxes at his holiday home in the South of France said today:
"Ignoring voters' calls for a plebiscite would damage Labour's election hopes.
"Not having a commitment in the next Labour manifesto of some sort is going to prejudice the Labour chances," Mills told Reuters in a telephone interview on Monday.
"I can understand why the Labour leadership don't want to have a referendum, but I think they are going to have to weigh that up against the likelihood that a firm commitment not to have one would have a negative effect on the Labour vote."
Reporters were unable to locate Ed Miliband who is also believed to be enjoying a continental holiday.
Link: http://reut.rs/13JKEPt
Can't wait for him to get the boot in 2015...