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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets
One of my best bets in 2012 was the 33/1 I got on George Galloway in the Bradford West by-election. My view then remains – Galloway is a formidable politician and he’s going to be a tough one to beat. 3/1 looks a good price.
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Yesterday I invited Shadsy of Ladbrokes, far and away the best bookie in terms of political betting, to offer odds on the Berwick-on-Tweed seat which looks like a three way marginal.
IIRC by this stage, 21 months prior to the 2010 GE, the constituency betting markets were very much more active than they are currently. Hopefully in the near future, Ladbrokes along with PP possibly, will show the way by offering a far broader range of seats, say 50+ by the end of 2013, expanding this to 100+ by the time we are within a year of polling day.
Interesting fact is that Labour have only come second there once in the last seven election since 1983, in 2005:
1983: third
1987: third
1992: first
1997: first
2001: first
2005: second
2010: third
I wonder what graphologists would make of Mark Carney's totally indecipherable scrawled signature at the foot of his letter yesterday to George Osborne:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/documents/pdf/govletter130807.pdf
This appears all the more remarkable after his perfectly legible handwritten "Dear Chancellor" salutaton and an equally clear "Yours sincerely" before his signature.
YouGov sees the 'economy' internals drift out for the coalition again - for example, "cuts good/bad for the economy" goes from 41/41 to 38/46.
However, responsibility for the cuts still firmly "Last Labour govt": 34 (-2) vs Coalition: 24(-) - the 10 point gap the same as it was across 2012...
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/hhz5pqj7y8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-070813.pdf
"‘Bongo bongo land’? Ukip’s lunatic fringe has done David Cameron a favour
Defiant as the MEP may be, Godfrey Bloom's comments won't help his party"
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/bongo-bongo-land-ukips-lunatic-fringe-has-done-david-cameron-a-favour-8750283.html
"Has Ukip finally gone too far? 'Bongo bongo land' remarks by MEP Godfrey Bloom could prove a crucial tipping-point for the party"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/has-ukip-finally-gone-too-fa-bongo-bongo-land-remarks-by-mep-godfrey-bloom-could-prove-a-crucial-tippingpoint-for-the-party-8749639.html
Of longer-term interest is that good economic news is doing nothing to the polls either. People who like the Government think "oh, good", people who don't like it think "well, about time", but it's not changing minds. The next election isn't IMO going to be won on the economy, either way.
On topic, I'm a bit sceptical about Galloway holding on. He has a great record for winning seats for the first time, and then he moves on. The "anyone but Galloway" vote becomes significant, partly because he's not notably interested in constituency stuff. The Eastleigh bet looks tasty, though.
Nick, I don't know if you're interested as it's near to Broxtowe, but the latest edition of Rail magazine (#728) has information on the proposed Toton station, including an artists impression (page 17).
If you look at the far-left of the picture, you can see what looks suspiciously like a tram ...
Apparently the siting of the station generates £500 million more than the next best-performing option (presumably inner-city stations).
Second spreadsheet emailed to you
Interesting article by Kate Spicer who is successful but childless and contains a few nuggets of information.
"Where a decade ago, just one in nine women remained childless at 45 and were considered rather peculiar at that, now that figure is closer to one in four. For women with a university education, like me, that figure rises to 43 per cent - an extraordinary figure which signifies a seismic social change.
Among my friends, relatively ordinary women as opposed to media types, I am not alone in being childless. And there are many more examples in the realms of the super-successful, from Oprah Winfrey and Cameron Diaz to Helen Mirren and Theresa May.
Of 192 female directors among 1,110 FTSE 100 board members, it is estimated that just under half of them are childless."
She then draws an interesting inference:
"Meanwhile, have you read Aldous Huxley's Brave New World with its population graded from the top, Alpha, down to Epsilon? If educated, successful women like me don't breed, are we gearing up for a generation of Epsilon-minus semi-morons?
Social mobility is stickier than ever, so let's not leave breeding to the idiots."
Are we getting there already?
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2386400/Kate-Spicer-Any-woman-says-shes-happy-childless-liar-fool.html#ixzz2bMD6E2aa
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 19,621 39.1 −5.6
Conservative Nick Hillman 12,829 25.6 +8.3
Labour Daniel Zeichner 12,174 24.3 −9.7
Green Tony Juniper 3,804 7.6 +4.7
UKIP Peter Burkinshaw 1,195 2.4 +1.0
It seems to me that this is a bet on whether the University towns are really going to punish the Lib Dems for the fees hypocrisy. Given it will be nearly 5 years in the past by 2015, more than a whole generation of University students, I seriously doubt it.
I also suspect that Huppert will benefit by the split opposition vote with the tories and Labour fairly even. If the Lib Dems lose this one they really are facing melt down. Lib Dem hold for me.
But then given blame for the "cuts" had seen a 10 point Labour lead across 2012 and 2013 to date I might want to belive that too....
10 minutes before Today interviewed first John Vine and then Mark Harper.....with Cameron appearing on BBC Breakfast from Salford Royal NHS to talk about the £500m.....not sure Labour's August omertà is entirely wise..
On Eastleigh, there are lots of cases of parties coming close in a by-election, declaring "no seat is safe" and then falling back at the GE when the incumbent party's voters get out of their armchairs and vote.
Hamilton South, Monklands East, Falkirk West, Hartlepool, Bromley and Hodge Hill are examples.
Cambridge looks "hold-able" for the LDs. Watch out for bar-charts saying it's a two-horse race between them and the Tories.
Alex Andreou @sturdyAlex
A shark broke through the roof of the car and attacked them. On a road. A dry road.They are fighting it with a stick. @chiller #sharknado
A shark is climbing a rope to try and get the hero. Climbing a rope and actually going RAARRRR RAARRRRR. @chiller #sharknado
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRF63SUCYAAzDmZ.jpg:large
PBers are invited to nominate other seats.
More bad news for Ladbrokes. After a poor first quarter and a profit warning following a disappointing Cheltenham Festival, the bookie has this morning revealed that profits have halved in the first half of the year. Richard Glynn, chief executive, says: "We have continued to make good operational progress against our strategy which, disappointingly, is not reflected in our first half financial performance."
No bonuses come Christmas for Shadsy and the boys then?
I don't know the area massively well, but I'm not sure how an area that contains the massive site of Toton sidings and depot can be called 'almost entirely residential' ... :-)
What do you think would cause the uproar?
Miss Plato, it's the first I've heard of Sharknado, but it sounds rather surreal fun to me. Not unlike the shark in the original Batman film.
Did they fight it off using shark-repellant Batspray?
"Ed Miliband is rumoured to be on the verge of sacking shadow education secretary Stephen Twigg, who is simply no match for Michael Gove’s flair and intellect. I hear that Vernon Coaker, who was Children, Schools and Families Minister under Brown and Balls, is in line for promotion. Coaker is a former teacher and seasoned political pugilist, so he would certainly brighten things up.
But the damp Twigg has not given up, not yet. As is his wont, he has penned a letter to the Times Education Supplement. And, as ever, it is not a success. Among the usual bleats about Gove being a rabble rousing ‘ideologue’, I noticed this line:
‘Like a shark in a tornado nothing is left undamaged.’
Gove was able to draw on Burke and John Stuart Mill in a piece for the Guardian last week; but poor Twiggy can only nod at ‘Sharknado’, a niche low budget disaster film about, you guessed it, a tornado that spouts sharks."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/08/twigg-fights-reshuffle-fears-with-sharknado/
.@DouglasCarswell suggests online party membership on #newsnight | Read @JamieJBartlett's paper on 'Virtual Members': ow.ly/nJgvf
It was #1 trending on Twitter last night - the PR lady Amy who runs the Syfy account is chuffed to bits
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23600465
In a nutshell, many mothers apparently feel discriminated against at work.
I've heard some say [yes, supervague anecdote] that maternity leave is actually problematic, because it's so generous that it puts businesses off hiring women, and that if a woman is hired and she's likely to have kids they'd rather promote others so that they don't end up losing a high-ranking member of staff for prolonged periods.
Edited extra bit: Not Sharknado, but Shark On A Train: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23610105
http://t.co/oLVMydkZAq
Jim Pickard @PickardJE
So quite a few Labour-run councils also have zero-hours contracts. ft.com/cms/s/0/707025… Harder for Labour to adopt moral high ground now.
In Cambridge Labour reselected their 2010 candidate....
My parents worked full-time and we never had a single family holiday as they were *busy* earning. I went to someone else's house after school for tea, spent my time at someone else's house with their family during the holidays. It was like being fostered PT.
I'd rather we had a bit less [it wasn't much to start with] and were more together.
And come 2014 you have a duty to vote "Yes".
Job done.
Ian Birrell
@ianbirrell
Shocking: Just looked at 2011 accounts of Save The Children in US. Ceo given nearly $475k in pay & perks. 181 staff paid more than $100,000
Under half what his opposite number at @SavetheChildren earns>> RT @Humanicontraria For the record: my 2013 salary CEO of MSF-UK = £71,500
It gets worse: now we learn @savechildrenuk chiefs helped themselves to a £162k bonus pot bit.ly/13kLX7L
There will be a polling question about this wont there?
I'll ignore your reply to me and concentrate on your 'Harman style bollocks' post. Very good post. Don't totally agree but interesting angle. The device I'm typing on makes lucid conversation impossible so I'll have to leave my reservations hanging.....
http://www.ludlowassemblyrooms.co.uk/diary.php
I will in any case be in Edinburgh later this month, but that's mostly so I can cool off with something a bit more provincial after a summer packed with events like "The Ludlow Pudding Experience". Really Roger you've got to get out more, there's a whole range of cutting edge art passing you by.
She has a most peculiar biog - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie_Stopes#Advocacy_of_eugenics
I must revisit Ludlow. I was waiting for the inauguration of the 4th Conservative association building but with all the austerity stuff around I imagine they'll continue to make do with three. Must be a squeeze though?
http://www.cityam.com/article/why-governor-s-monetary-revolution-will-eventually-backfire
A superb critique of Carney's announcement on interest rates which I consider absolutely appalling. We need to return to normal monetary conditions and not keep throwing good money into gilts or whatever. The cynic in me holds the view that Osborne has told Carney that he needs to keep the families and the mortgage payers sweet until 2015 and that means no rises in interest rates which might choke off consumer demand and damp down the so-called "feel-good" factor which the Conservatives presumably hope and believe will propel them to a majority Government.
What then for savers who face another two or three years of miserable returns ? Presumably Osborne has calculated that as these are predominantly elderly, they'll all vote Tory anyway so he doesn't much care.
As Heath argues, we need a managed and gradual return to normal monetary policy but Osborne's desperation to be re-elected shows we are heading for something nasty in the next mid-term. All the 2010 rhetoric about sound economic management really sounds dreadfully hollow now.
Fortunately for Osborne, the serious and credible critics of his policy aren't on the Labour frontbenchers but they do exist and their arguments can't be brushed off.
Not often one sees that sort of thing. Did Tony ever apologise to Mandy over the passports?
Mr Cameron said he was looking forward to meeting his former colleague later in the year. On a visit to Devon, the Prime Minister said: ‘I rather think I do owe him an apology. Had I known at the time how badly the journalists had behaved, I might have been in the position to take a different approach. I am very sorry about that.
‘I congratulate Peter Cruddas on his victory and on the verdict he has won. I think it is very deserved.
‘He has done a huge amount for this country. I look forward to meeting him after the summer.’
In March last year, the Sunday Times had quoted Mr Cruddas saying a £250,000 donation would put businessmen in the ‘premier league’ of donors and allow them to have dinner with the Prime Minister and George Osborne.
They appear to have selected the same candidate - who didn't help his cause by making a Nazi salute during a campaign debate.
General Election 2010: Cambridge[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 19,621 39.1 −5.6
Conservative Nick Hillman 12,829 25.6 +8.3
Labour Daniel Zeichner 12,174 24.3 −9.7
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268389/Labour-candidate-performing-Nazi-salute-Cambridge-University-debate.html
"Daniel Zeichner, 53, was appearing at the Cambridge University Union to discuss whether the Conservatives were ready to return to power.
During his speech, when he accused the Tories of associating with ‘fascists’ such as the Polish Law and Justice Party, he made the ‘Heil Hitler’ salute."
UK has fastest growing population on Europe ONS says
ONS @statisticsONS
Estimated UK #population 63.7m in mid-2012, up from 63.3m in mid-2011 bit.ly/1cv5gDv #ONS
apparently it's shark week. This should fit the bill for you ;-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2386260/Shark-Week-Costume-wearing-CatShark-robotic-vacuum-rides-hilarious-video.html
Foreign aid is according to MORI the issue where most feel we need to cut spending - so Godders just threw a bit of lighter fuel on it. I doubt it will make any difference.
Peter Hoskins @PeterHoskinsSky
ONS: For the first time in 2013, the majority of adults read newspapers online (55%), up from 47% in 2012
UK pop grew 419k (0.7%) in year to June 2012, #ons estimates. 61% of inc. due to more births than deaths, 39% to migration.
Lab 10150
LDem 7257
Con 3684
Green 2298
Ind 1024
UKIP 933
Others 118
This is why the current odds have Labour as favourites and Conservatives a poor 3rd . Much of the John Hipkin Independent vote in Castle ward should be added to the LD total taking them to around 8,000 .
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/08/08/its-complicated-stupid/
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/opinion/columnists/doing-all-we-can-to-tackle-crime-1-5926718
Golly, what names and allegations were made about me! Still, if a small pool of peculiar lefties think its a good idea to be rude to me and are charmless when I'm not even about to respond - feel free. The lurkers who are 90% of the traffic on PB can make up their own mind.
And I'm not sure they'd decide I was the horrible person.
Still if that's her constituency - its perfect if rather dull reading.
Canary Wharf grew from 27,000 employees a decade ago to 100,000 now. Mostly Michael Heseltine to thank.
Offences in our area fell every year under the last Labour Government, after having more than doubled under the Tories."
It will be interesting to see who she ascribes future changes in the crime stats - central government, or Vera Baird, the Police Commissioner......
what is a MiL? Mother in Law?
"When visiting somewhere new, it is not always necessary to buy guide books. Just read crime reports from the local courts... Thus, from Paisley Sheriff Court, we have the recent tale of a 46-year-old man, Gary Muir, who accidentally stabbed his wife during a heated row about Scotland’s independence referendum. The couple had been out with family and friends for a birthday celebration. Afterwards, gathered in someone’s flat, Muir became embroiled in a political argument.
The discussion, it was said, heated up after Muir was hit on the head by a woman wielding a bottle. Enraged, as you would be, he admitted taking two knives from the kitchen and repeatedly stabbed another man, Matthew Stewart. When Muir’s wife, Allison, tried to disarm him, he admitted accidentally stabbing her too, causing damage to her liver, stomach and gall bladder. Nothing too serious: the surgeons only had to remove her gall bladder.
...Muir was jailed for 14 months. He’ll be out in time to carry on the debate and vote in the referendum. And I know I shouldn’t find it remotely funny. But I just can’t help it." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/melaniereid/article3837106.ece
What I'd like most is a lot more constituencies to choose from.
In the meantime, 11/4 on the Conservatives in Broxtowe is well worth considering. A high profile first term incumbent should not be so long priced. It's certainly a better bet than 4/1 on a Conservative overall majority and probably better than 13/8 on Conservative most seats.
Is it obligatory to add the words "innocent face" at this point?
Professional women without children also create space for the upward social mobility of others. It may be a personal disappointment but is not a disaster for society.
I still can't believe a tweet discussion I had with him about branding - Evil Tories and footballers were seduced by branding and spent appalling money on them/they created non-jobs - he owned an iPhone *because it was a good phone*
But as I said, the distance in time and sense of inevitability is dampening feelings. "This may well all look very different in 15-20 years!" doesn't really stir the blood.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
LOL "Islington People's Rights Organisation" hiring advisers on zero hours contracts rightsnet.org.uk/jobs/vacancy/l…
I'd be betting on Lib Dems in both Eastleigh and Cambridge. I expect both seats will have extensive outside help and good first time incumbent candidates.
On my radar:
Montgomery - best chance of Lib Dem win imo
Anglesey - most likely Labour loss?
Northampton South - Brian Binley standing down, UKIP strong in May, I fancy a Labour gain.
From a purely anthropological viewpoint [a subject I wish I'd studied instead] it's fascinating stuff. Like Bushmen and big bums.