So Corbyn's only chance to stop a Conservative majority is relying on the group that doesn't turn out for elections to suddenly turn out in their droves across the nation?
On "no deal", the UK would save £9bn net contributions and start to collect £2-£3bn of customs duties (prior to striking any new trade deals) and not pay the E100bn.
Full customs checks, full non-EU tariffs etc. would hit financial markets, car manufacturing and agriculture exports hardest. Disruption would also be potentially faced in transport and communication networks (but not energy, since these arrangements are largely commercial and "non-physical").
HMG would need to compensate for that (increase agricultural support significantly, compensate for 10% duty on exported cars, and 5% on exported components). The Independent and Guardian suggested 4.5bn-6bn per year. Another 5-8bn per year could be lost in financial services revenue, although I doubt it'd be that high. HMG would also need to price in a corporation tax cut from 17% to 10%, that could be up to 10bn per year. HMG would also need to factor in and support relocation of business and supply chains for a few years, say another 2-3bn per year, so that could cost - in total - up to £27bn per year in tax cuts and additional support.
So, I'd expect the public finances to be between 8-16bn per year worse off in the short term, although that excludes the E100bn danegeld which would otherwise have to be paid and would balance out most of the effects in the first few years. I'd expect us to deregulate in a few areas as well.
So not ideal, but not catastrophic. The main impacts (and very visual, and nasty, headlines) would be the queues at Dover and Calais, and the long queues of Brits trying to holiday abroad. It's that sort of thing, combined with the economy stagnating, that might turn politically toxic for the Tories, not the money, with immigration largely "solving" itself as a public issue by dipping below 150k per year as all that happens.
The risk would then be that Labour are returned to office in GE2022 and took us straight back into the EEA, because, by that stage, free movement is politically acceptable, with an aim to renegotiate accession to the EU 10-15 years after that.
In fact, if you're a Remainer, that's now your most credible path back to "Remain".
If there were no deal, the resultant drop in GDP and tax take would eat up the net payments we make to the EU and then some. We would also be immediately excluded from any form of international and pan-European agreement, collaboration and cooperation in which the ECJ has jurisdiction. That would have a significant impact on our ability to trade and move capital, as well as to physically travel - not only within Europe but also further afield. This would have a further impact on GDP and may also lead to rises in unemployment - meaning extra expenditure on benefits.
You're assuming the answer and then using it to confirm you are right!
And how are they going to pay for that? By raising their own taxes? I doubt it
The SNP are now full on centre left. Even proper left. They appear to have abandoned the Tartan Tory stuff, as far as I can tell. This is surely a risky proposition. It makes indy seem like a left v right decision and I am far from convinced Scotland is an essentially leftwing country.
It is to the left of conservative England, but not by much.
Look at what the SNP has done in power, not what it has said.
Absolutely!
Where do the middle classes get free prescriptions - Scotland! Where do middle class kids get free University Education - Scotland! Where are poor kids less likely to go to University - Scotland!
No he doesnt. Anyone can pick ludicrous figures out of the air and then clsim their manifesto us costed. The fact it bears absolutely no relation to reality seems to be an issue only to those people living on planet Earth.
Wasn't the IFS analysis that the Tories were not clear on funding and labour were wrong and misguided. What a choice!
Better to u turn than pug headedly not turn sometimes. Although if you need to a lot it raises questions of the driver.
Nicola Sturgeon has U-turned - on the date for Indyref2, on the currency question, on Scotland 'remaining' in the EU, on Scotland applying to join the EU - so dizzily that it's hard to know which way she's facing. So it's quite amusing to see her attacking Theresa May on the subject.
It pains me to see this level of political discourse becoming commonplace. Yes different political parties have different ideas, different approaches and different philosophies - but it does no good at all to think of the opposition as evil. Disagree - but do so with respect.
It pains me to see this level of political discourse becoming commonplace. Yes different political parties have different ideas, different approaches and different philosophies - but it does no good at all to think of the opposition as evil. Disagree - but do so with respect.
Blame the left. They turned politics into 'good [the left] versus evil [right]'.
On "no deal", the UK would save £9bn net contributions and start to collect £2-£3bn of customs duties (prior to striking any new trade deals) and not pay the E100bn.
Full customs checks, full non-EU tariffs etc. would hit financial markets, car manufacturing and agriculture exports hardest. Disruption would also be potentially faced in transport and communication networks (but not energy, since these arrangements are largely commercial and "non-physical").
HMG would need to compensate for that (increase agricultural support significantly, compensate for 10% duty on exported cars, and 5% on exported components). The Independent and Guardian suggested 4.5bn-6bn per year. Another 5-8bn per year could be lost in financial services revenue, although I doubt it'd be that high. HMG would also need to price in a corporation tax cut from 17% to 10%, that could be up to 10bn per year. HMG would also need to factor in and support relocation of business and supply chains for a few years, say another 2-3bn per year, so that could cost - in total - up to £27bn per year in tax cuts and additional support.
So not ideal, but not catastrophic. The main impacts (and very visual, and nasty, headlines) would be the queues at Dover and Calais, and the long queues of Brits trying to holiday abroad. It's that sort of thing, combined with the economy stagnating, that might turn politically toxic for the Tories, not the money, with immigration largely "solving" itself as a public issue by dipping below 150k per year as all that happens.
The risk would then be that Labour are returned to office in GE2022 and took us straight back into the EEA, because, by that stage, free movement is politically acceptable, with an aim to renegotiate accession to the EU 10-15 years after that.
In fact, if you're a Remainer, that's now your most credible path back to "Remain".
If there were no deal, the resultant drop in GDP and tax take would eat up the net payments we make to the EU and then some. We would also be immediately excluded from any form of international and pan-European agreement, collaboration and cooperation in which the ECJ has jurisdiction. That would have a significant impact on our ability to trade and move capital, as well as to physically travel - not only within Europe but also further afield. This would have a further impact on GDP and may also lead to rises in unemployment - meaning extra expenditure on benefits.
Political suicide. If this proposition were seriously put on the agenda then the Tory party would move against May. A new PM would come with a policy to rejoin EFTA and the EEA and we would then take it from there. I suspect the issue would then be kicked hard into the long grass.
#womanshour trending on twitter, and all the tweets are from astroturfers who have all been told to say "I am not a fan of Corbyn but...". The scale of the op makes me slightly more inclined than I was to think Lab are also successfully gaming the online polls.
It pains me to see this level of political discourse becoming commonplace. Yes different political parties have different ideas, different approaches and different philosophies - but it does no good at all to think of the opposition as evil. Disagree - but do so with respect.
Blame the left. They turned politics into 'good [the left] versus evil [right]'.
My Twitter's not representaive as, being a writer, my circle is 99% luvvies, but I've never seen anything like today's timeline: EVERYONE is talking the election (and 99% of it is pro-Corbyn of course). Will have to avoid for the next fortnight.
My Twitter's not representaive as, being a writer, my circle is 99% luvvies, but I've never seen anything like today's timeline: EVERYONE is talking the election (and 99% of it is pro-Corbyn of course). Will have to avoid for the next fortnight.
Just watched May v Corbyn. Probably won't change anything, but it further reinforced the view that May is simply hopeless under interrogation, clearly hates it, and lacks the quick wit and polish any other front line politician would have. Corbyn has got so much better at appearing competent and statesmanlike and not some bearded left wing loon. The format didn't allow any real scrutiny of Labour's policies so he just got free airtime to sell his jam for everyone mad populism whilst May was under scrutiny on her policy and record and had no killer rebuttals. There were good responses available to her to everything she was under pressure on but she failed to hit the target. Nor did she demolish Labour policies. What a wasted opportunity. She is frankly hopeless.
She wasn't *THAT* bad! I scored it Jezza 6 and Tezza 5.
If I remember correctly, Bob was exactly the same before the least GE.
May was fine last night. Did all she needed to do. Corbyn was a lot better than expected, but his answers on security generally and the Falklands specifically would not have convinced anyone who was not already going to vote Labour.
To be fair Cameron was rubbish in 2015 and should have romped home against Miliband, whom history will clearly judge as more unpopular and unelectable than Corbyn (whom lest we forget is edging closer and closer to No 10). The Tories are crap. But I believe in free markets and capitalism and living within our means. I've no option but to support them.....
Miliband was leading in the polls at this point....
On "no deal", the UK would save £9bn net contributions and start to collect £2-£3bn of customs duties (prior to striking any new trade deals) and not pay the E100bn.
Full customs checks, full non-EU tariffs etc. would hit financial markets, car manufacturing and agriculture exports hardest. Disruption would also be potentially faced in transport and communication networks (but not energy, since these arrangements are largely commercial and "non-physical").
HMG would need to compensate for that (increase agricultural support significantly, compensate for 10% duty on exported cars, and 5% on exported support.
So not ideal, but not catastrophic. The main impacts (and very visual, and nasty, headlines) would be the queues at Dover and Calais, and the long queues of Brits trying to holiday abroad. It's that sort of thing, combined with the economy stagnating, that might turn politically toxic for the Tories, not the money, with immigration largely "solving" itself as a public issue by dipping below 150k per year as all that happens.
The risk would then be that Labour are returned to office in GE2022 and took us straight back into the EEA, because, by that stage, free movement is politically acceptable, with an aim to renegotiate accession to the EU 10-15 years after that.
In fact, if you're a Remainer, that's now your most credible path back to "Remain".
If there were no deal, the resultant drop in GDP and tax take would eat up the net payments we make to the EU and then some. We would also be immediately excluded from any form of international and pan-European agreement, collaboration and cooperation in which the ECJ has jurisdiction. That would have a significant impact on our ability to trade and move capital, as well as to physically travel - not only within Europe but also further afield. This would have a further impact on GDP and may also lead to rises in unemployment - meaning extra expenditure on benefits.
Political suicide. If this proposition were seriously put on the agenda then the Tory party would move against May. A new PM would come with a policy to rejoin EFTA and the EEA and we would then take it from there. I suspect the issue would then be kicked hard into the long grass.
No chance, a majority of Tory voters in every poll want hard Brexit, Leave voters voted for immigration control and regained sovereignty they will not accept leaving free movement uncontrolled just to stay in the single market. It will take a Labour PM for the possibility of the UK returning to the single market to even arise
It pains me to see this level of political discourse becoming commonplace. Yes different political parties have different ideas, different approaches and different philosophies - but it does no good at all to think of the opposition as evil. Disagree - but do so with respect.
Blame the left. They turned politics into 'good [the left] versus evil [right]'.
Reality check: Was Ed Miliband this far ahead on twitter ?
I don't think you can describe it as Corbyn being far ahead. What has happened is that moderate voices have left the platform and so the only voices being heard are the extremists.
There is no point in using a platform where you get abuse rather than debate. And the Corbynista approach is to abuse first, second and third.
Political suicide. If this proposition were seriously put on the agenda then the Tory party would move against May. A new PM would come with a policy to rejoin EFTA and the EEA and we would then take it from there. I suspect the issue would then be kicked hard into the long grass.
You write as if rejoining the EEA via EFTA would be straightforward, but it would require an accession treaty and would mean yet more negotiations as many players wouldn't want a large country having that model.
Sorry, come late this, but to one who was an Agent in Feb 74, it doesn’t feel the same at all. Yet anyway. By this time in the campaign Jeremy Thorpe was on TV every night ..... or at least it seemed like it ...... and the polls were reporting big swings to the (then) Liberals. It wasn’t the (in England anyway) the two party race that it appears to be today. TMay has the benefit of running in the shadow of Margaret Thatcher... Heayj was widely seen as an oddball. And of courdse Wilson had been PM for a while, and still had the avuncular ‘Uncle Harold’ image. He might have preferred cigars and brandy but he came across as a pipe and pint man.
As a leftie..... Lib then, tactical Labour voter now ......I hope of course that it does turn out like Feb ’74, but it just doesn’t feel as exciting as then.
Maybe, of course, I’m getting old. I wasn’t 40 then, still young enough to see visions and feel strong enough to move mountains....... politically, anyway. 40+ years later fighting the battles is for the next, or indeed the next but one, generation. My teacher granddaughter is getting very exercised.
So Robert Harris and Alastair Campbell are at least to some extent supporting the Labour campaign, which is good to see. Credit where it's due. The Tory war criminal Blair is off counting his money somewhere. Has Peter Mandelson chipped in at all?
No chance, a majority of Tory voters in every poll want hard Brexit
Only because they have no idea what that means
Yes they do, most are pensioners and want control of immigration and money reclaimed from the EU and restoration of sovereignty, for them that is non negotiable
Political suicide. If this proposition were seriously put on the agenda then the Tory party would move against May. A new PM would come with a policy to rejoin EFTA and the EEA and we would then take it from there. I suspect the issue would then be kicked hard into the long grass.
You write as if rejoining the EEA via EFTA would be straightforward, but it would require an accession treaty and would mean yet more negotiations as many players wouldn't want a large country having that model.
It would require large payments to the EU and free movement which only a future Labour government could provide, there is no chance of the Tories agreeing to that
Vile. Honestly Labour this time round need to be subjected to as big a defeat as possible.
I think twitter can safely be ignored when it comes to most anything these days. It's at its best in a fast-moving crisis where updates are given on the ground. For anything else? Pfft - I wouldn't get too hung up about it.
A lot of misogynist abuse, that said, on those timelines. Has anyone seen @surbiton?
Yes they do, most are pensioners and want control of immigration and money reclaimed from the EU and restoration of sovereignty, for them that is non negotiable
So Robert Harris and Alastair Campbell are at least to some extent supporting the Labour campaign, which is good to see. Credit where it's due. The Tory war criminal Blair is off counting his money somewhere. Has Peter Mandelson chipped in at all?
Hmph. Have to say I'm getting a horrible feeling the Labour campaign is going tits-up. Too many gaffes and setbacks the last few days, the combined pressure surely is going to pull it underwater.
Corbyn needs to do something drastic today or tomorrow to change the conversation (maybe even play the "NHS card").
Not really, because their costing don't seem to bear any relation to the true cost of things.
I mean, if it really only costs 3 billion to set up the National Care Service, it would have been done years ago.
So, the Tories can give us the true costings, as they are better at numbers.
Err, isn't it in everyone's interest to find the true costings?
Especially, if your immediate family plans to use social care in the next few years (as I gathered was the case), you might be interested in how much it costs.
Well a deal where we handed over £50 trillion over the next 50 years certainly would be.
Not really.
If "handing over £50 trillion over the next 50 years" generates £100 trillion in trade revenue, it's a bargain
If we lose £50 trillion in trade as a result of no deal, that's not a good deal
The current deal on offer from the EU is that we agree to pay them around €100bn and they are not offering a trade deal (or even to start discussions on it) as part of that. That is unquestionably worse than no deal.
No chance, a majority of Tory voters in every poll want hard Brexit
Only because they have no idea what that means
Yes they do, most are pensioners and want control of immigration and money reclaimed from the EU and restoration of sovereignty, for them that is non negotiable
Yes, probably the truth about Brexit.
"No forriners and more money for pensions! The youngsters can sort out the mess when we are dead and gone."
Nicola Sturgeon Has Dropped Her Plan To Hold IndyRef2 By Spring 2019 The SNP manifesto has no mention of the first minster's previously stated plan to hold a referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.
So Robert Harris and Alastair Campbell are at least to some extent supporting the Labour campaign, which is good to see. Credit where it's due. The Tory war criminal Blair is off counting his money somewhere. Has Peter Mandelson chipped in at all?
I expect Mandelson will vote LD
I thought Peers couldn't vote in a General Election?
Well a deal where we handed over £50 trillion over the next 50 years certainly would be.
Not really.
If "handing over £50 trillion over the next 50 years" generates £100 trillion in trade revenue, it's a bargain
If we lose £50 trillion in trade as a result of no deal, that's not a good deal
The current deal on offer from the EU is that we agree to pay them around €100bn and they are not offering a trade deal (or even to start discussions on it) as part of that. That is unquestionably worse than no deal.
What if we are legally committed to some or all of that £100bn ? Are you suggesting the UK should renege on legally binding liabilities ? Probably for the first time ever.
I thought she was as 'on fire' as Mrs May will ever get. What startled me was that when Laura K asked a question Mrs May started marching across the stage quite aggressively towards her. Notably, despite some fairly tough questions, no booing from the Tory audience.
Hmph. Have to say I'm getting a horrible feeling the Labour campaign is going tits-up. Too many gaffes and setbacks the last few days, the combined pressure surely is going to pull it underwater.
Corbyn needs to do something drastic today or tomorrow to change the conversation (maybe even play the "NHS card").
It does 'feel' as though Labour are starting to come unstuck, but we've been wrong guessing the polls virtually every week.
Corbyn has been defying political gravity all through this campaign, and none of that has made any sense to me.
Can we take that to mean there's been a significant reduction of the Con lead with ICM?
I do not expect the ICM poll to be materially different from last week. Their weighting is primarily based on GE2015 vote [ amongst others ] and not likelihood to vote.
Well a deal where we handed over £50 trillion over the next 50 years certainly would be.
Not really.
If "handing over £50 trillion over the next 50 years" generates £100 trillion in trade revenue, it's a bargain
If we lose £50 trillion in trade as a result of no deal, that's not a good deal
The current deal on offer from the EU is that we agree to pay them around €100bn and they are not offering a trade deal (or even to start discussions on it) as part of that. That is unquestionably worse than no deal.
What if we are legally committed to some or all of that £100bn ? Are you suggesting the UK should renege on legally binding liabilities ? Probably for the first time ever.
Can we take that to mean there's been a significant reduction of the Con lead with ICM?
I do not expect the ICM poll to be materially different from last week. Their weighting is primarily based on GE2015 vote [ amongst others ] and not likelihood to vote.
I think we're all agree whatever it shows, it's already out-of-date. We need a daily tracker, simple as.
So Robert Harris and Alastair Campbell are at least to some extent supporting the Labour campaign, which is good to see. Credit where it's due. The Tory war criminal Blair is off counting his money somewhere. Has Peter Mandelson chipped in at all?
I expect Mandelson will vote LD
I thought Peers couldn't vote in a General Election?
If HYUFD says he will, he will. He is still waiting if Le Pen won the first round.
Comments
Where do the middle classes get free prescriptions - Scotland!
Where do middle class kids get free University Education - Scotland!
Where are poor kids less likely to go to University - Scotland!
To the right of the Tories in England!
John Bercow tells me that he definitely intends to stay as Speaker until 2022 if he's re-elected. Tory backbenchers will be thrilled #GE2017
Tim Farron tells @AdamBoultonSky party going forward, will gain seats but won't put number on it. Previous elections always overestimated.
am sure i heard him say 10
How about shifting the speaker to represent a mythical constituency for the next parliament, or something?
Corbynista true colours can't stay hidden for very long.
Best ignored.
He'd do a great job, and they'd both enjoy attacking Corbyn and May at the same time, just like that front page!
There is no point in using a platform where you get abuse rather than debate. And the Corbynista approach is to abuse first, second and third.
TMay has the benefit of running in the shadow of Margaret Thatcher... Heayj was widely seen as an oddball.
And of courdse Wilson had been PM for a while, and still had the avuncular ‘Uncle Harold’ image. He might have preferred cigars and brandy but he came across as a pipe and pint man.
As a leftie..... Lib then, tactical Labour voter now ......I hope of course that it does turn out like Feb ’74, but it just doesn’t feel as exciting as then.
Maybe, of course, I’m getting old. I wasn’t 40 then, still young enough to see visions and feel strong enough to move mountains....... politically, anyway. 40+ years later fighting the battles is for the next, or indeed the next but one, generation. My teacher granddaughter is getting very exercised.
What possible deal could be worse than no deal?
https://twitter.com/SamuelWise/status/869525439987027968
https://twitter.com/michael76140741/status/869499622921834496
If "handing over £50 trillion over the next 50 years" generates £100 trillion in trade revenue, it's a bargain
If we lose £50 trillion in trade as a result of no deal, that's not a good deal
A lot of misogynist abuse, that said, on those timelines. Has anyone seen @surbiton?
Corbyn needs to do something drastic today or tomorrow to change the conversation (maybe even play the "NHS card").
Especially, if your immediate family plans to use social care in the next few years (as I gathered was the case), you might be interested in how much it costs.
"No forriners and more money for pensions! The youngsters can sort out the mess when we are dead and gone."
Nicola Sturgeon Has Dropped Her Plan To Hold IndyRef2 By Spring 2019
The SNP manifesto has no mention of the first minster's previously stated plan to hold a referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/nicola-sturgeon-has-dropped-her-plan-to-hold-indyref2-by?utm_term=.pq8yGjyZpM#.jynpX6pAo5
Trump is a tool and Saudi Arabia is the most vile nation on the planet.
I thought she was as 'on fire' as Mrs May will ever get. What startled me was that when Laura K asked a question Mrs May started marching across the stage quite aggressively towards her. Notably, despite some fairly tough questions, no booing from the Tory audience.
Corbyn has been defying political gravity all through this campaign, and none of that has made any sense to me.