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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay might be making Heath’s 1974 mistake
May reminiscent of Heath in 74. Called an opportunistic election when far ahead in polls & then campaign unravelled under scrutiny
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I found this very interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/29/harrow-west-labour-leaning-focus-group-may-not-be-all-it-seems
Why have the tories not made more of Labour's plans to restore many union powers? I haven't heard anything AT ALL from them on this. Very odd.
Hurrah.
They've displayed all the arrogance and hubris of Emperor Palpatine when he allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/869198997033975808
But Corbyn and Team Labour?
If they are prepared for the EU negotiations I would be astounded.
Trying to make parallels with Heath ... this is thin gruel to say the least.
Corbyn is having a blinding campaign and winning it hands down. If I was a dispassionate and objective neutral I'd vote Labour. No question. I really fear for the outcome next week, i increasingly feel a loss of Tory majority given they will clearly lose some seats to Labour and the Lib Dems and particularly as folk are already voting. Our postal ballots arrived yesterday. At best we'll get a two-day of the 2015 outcome with a majority around 10. Is May actually going to do anything in the next week to make sure she properly wins this? I'm really not sure what the Tories have in the tank. Anyone would think the Tories were sprung into an election they didn't expect whilst Labour had a campaign plan ready just in case. Perhaps that is the reality.
I remain depressed.
Stamp duty is a constructive transaction tax levied at up to 5 or 600 per cent. If you move sideways from a £1 million flat in Highgate to a £1 million house in Edgware (neither of which are lavish levels of housing in London), the transaction costs are going to be £20k or so, but the tax on top will be over twice that. At £1.5 million even more so it will be 4x the transaction cost. This is assuming sideways movement with no new money added, extracted or otherwise painlessly available to be handed over.
The tax on changing your house is thus similar to what is levied on cigarettes and far higher than what is levied on drink and petrol. Presumably we are not meant to do it.
A remarkable further farce is that if you buy a £15 million oligarch property in London, the stamp duty will be over £1.7 million. If instead you buy ten £1.5 million properties, the stamp duty, even including the 3% second property penalty on nine of them, will be half a million less. Someone buying these as a store of value has every incentive to buy 10 flats to be left empty rather than one.
If you convert stamp duty into an annual tax, you are effectively turning everybody into a leaseholder. You would never really own your home because the government might tax you out of it.
I don't know what the solution is but it is clear that this problem is having a profound effect on the urban landscape. When it costs £100k to move sideways, a lot of people spend that on a hideous extension instead, with Golders Green as a result.
A bloody big cricket.
That the Tory campaign was no good, I mean. Not where the second Death Star was.
The Death Star was in fact a gross waste of imperial taxpayers' money. It was better than the NHS IT project, in that it worked. But if you want a weapon that will wipe out everyone on a planet you are much better off with Sir Ridley's alien, which helpfully dies as soon as it's killed everybody.
Election night TV is going to be interesting.
Obviously you've not seen Sir Ridley's Alien: Covenant, which sucked more than a hooker that swallowed a Dyson.
Farron vs Thorpe.
Now we all have to have our daily scratch of heads at the comparison - that Hilary coat tailled into power on the back of her charismatic husband whilst May got their on her own seems to pass supporters of the party never to have had a woman leader by..
The British people generally don't like being sent to the polls needlessly...
How's your spread betting position?
King of Langley, I believe it was necessary for the timetable, in case Labour hadn't voted for it.
Mrs C, but election night on PB will be much better
Perhaps not ....
Still have an open position on my Lib Dem sell at 24ish.
So I'll be ok.
Just frustrating that instead of looking at a mahoosive three figure majority, we've got Tory candidates complaining about that fecking dementia tax.
The policy principle is fine, just so poorly expressed.
Do you think it all feels rather like 1987?
Harold Wilson, Denis Healey, James Callaghan, Roy Jenkins, Roy Mason, Barbara Castle, Shirley Williams, Anthony Crosland, Tony Benn
Look at that list, compare it with the Labour team today, and weep.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/869439969575784448
Care is expensive. We’re not paying enough in tax to fund social care. The future is worse than the present.
It is difficult to spin or sugar-coat that any other way.
Cameron simply legislated that a magic wand will appear in 2020 (Dilmot) when he had already stated he would step down before then.
Cameron left a steaming pile for his successor, and his successor has to clear up the mess.
On the plus side - they are more realistic on immigration and are probably 'closer' to the EU negotiating position than the Tories.
And to be fair - they had almost no time or warning to prepare a manifesto - and they seem to have done a much better job of that.
I'm just going to back them a little at over 11.5 seats (simply to square up some of my other positions), at 1.83 with Ladbrokes.
Morley & Outwood - had a couple of pieces of literature from Dawson (Lab candidate). Still 5 on Betfair Sportsbook to take the seat. May be worth a look. I think Jenkyns [Con] will retain it, but it's closer than those odds imply, I feel.
Only 3 parties standing here, (those two and Lib Dems).
I would like to think that the Exit Poll result declared at 22:01 will be sufficient and I can go to bed, but I know I will probably be cracking out a bottle of wine and some munchies. Of course if the Exit Poll says "Tories to win 125 seats" then I may stay up to pack my suitcase a bit quicker....
Thorpe was a closet homosexual constantly fearing exposure and Farron definitely definitely definitely doesn't like it up the bottom. Oh no siree, definitely not a fan of that sort of thing. No.
Ah yes, there's the difference.
I am convinced Sir Diddley Squat is a sort of Flashman of film. Everything looks good but there's nothing behind any of it apart from fluke. His Director's Cut of Blade Runner showed conclusively - by removing all the ambiguity - he didn't understand his own film and Prometheus showed that he didn't realise in 1978 that 'alien' was an adjective as well as a noun (effectively he made its title inaccurate ex post).
Some commentators suggest that May’s ‘done a Ted Heath’, when he called a general election in 1974, asking ‘who runs Britain?’ only to get the answer ‘not you’. But in fact 2017 may more resemble 1987. That’s when the last sitting female Tory PM increased her majority despite a dire campaign, not because of it. And the underlying reason would be support from working class Leave voters, Labour, UKIP and Tory alike.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2017/05/30/waugh-zone-special-may-v-_n_16876504.html?1496134715
If you mean a "much better job" in that it is a plausible alternative program of government that can be implemented realistically ... then I would beg to disagree.
Governance isn't about telling everyone what they want to hear.
May was fine last night. Did all she needed to do. Corbyn was a lot better than expected, but his answers on security generally and the Falklands specifically would not have convinced anyone who was not already going to vote Labour.
"Brexit negotiations with the EU look set to begin on 19th June – just 11 days after the General Election.
Your vote will decide: Theresa May negotiating the best deal for Britain - or a Brexit shambles with Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott."
I see they are now using the recognisably useless Diane Abbott.
It was deeply irresponsible for May to call an election after triggering Article 50, after starting the two-year countdown. Holding an election was itself not a bad idea - the elected government will have a mandate for conducting negotiations on the basis it has set out in its manifesto - but the timing is awful.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869480757395427328/photo/1
The results found that 64% of those young people who were registered did vote, rising to 65% among 25-to-39-year-olds and 66% among those aged between 40 and 54. It increased to 74% among the 55-to-64 age group and 90% for those aged 65 and over.
@MartinSLewis
Who do you think came out best in the Corbyn v May battle tonight?
55%Corbyn (I'm labour)
30%Corbyn (& I'm not labour)
08%May (I'm a Tory)
07%May (& I'm not Tory)
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869464507860623360
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869476398511140864
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869477262244155392
Maybe you think 38% or something of the electorate have been hoodwinked into supporting Corbyn by his press coverage or something?
It's a view.
I think the main reason why Labour are not being totally marmellised as they deserve is that there has been almost zero scrutiny of their policies. The reason for that is very simple, no-one took them seriously. When Theresa May made a blunder on one policy, it was major news, because people expect the policy actually to be enacted.
What I cannot see, either way, is a good outcome.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/869481724346081280
Why are the blues 4/6 to overcome a lab lead of 274 in Ealing central and Acton. But 2/7 to take Harrow west where the lead was 2208? If they're not adjacent they almost are.
JP Do you think Falklands was a Tory plot
JC No