It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour is that those in their ranks with ambition to actually do things are pretty much guaranteed that they are going to spend another decade out of power making futile gestures and noises off. That may suit the Corbyns of this world just fine but those with aspirations to actually achieve anything are going to wonder if there are better things to do with their prime years and look elsewhere.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win well enough on June8th to guarantee them a full five years in office, but Labour do well enough for Corbyn and allies to hang on to power in the Labour Party. On current polling, these are both distinct possibilities. Let's say also that Brexit goes badly, another distinct possibility. The backlash is likely to be sufficient for them to be completely blown away in the 2022 election, and replaced by.....well, whoever is not contaminated by the Brexit fallout.
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
No chance. Corbyn is simply unelectable. If May screwed up spectacularly, as opposed to just boring us all to tears, the Tories would replace her and still win. Labour must get rid and give the country a choice again. This is unhealthy.
It would be like expecting British voters to elect a party led by Gerry Adams, or Jimmy Saville. It won't happen.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Corbyn is screwed, I think and hope. Remain Labour supporters in safe seats with Remain MPs will vote Labour. He's okay down here. In semi-marginal 'faith, flag and family' Labour seats in provincial seats in the likes of the West Midlands he's going to get fucked. On balance, I think the far-left gets pushed out after June 8. If not, the party splits. En Marche!
Good luck. You decent lefties need to summon the courage and split from the Corbyn-parasitised Labour party, after June 8, if he tries to cling on, or the Marxists attempt to engineer a second and terminal takeover.
The risk to the country is too serious for you to do anything else. Because there is a chance the pendulum could swing and Corbyn's Labour could somehow win. And then Corbyn and Co really would try and impose a Chavez style economic policy on the UK. It is unthinkably horrific. It would make the travails of Brexit look like a passing sniffle. This would be the plague. A nation committing suicide.
Finish off these Far Left fuckers. Deal with the revolting rats in your basement. They threaten to spread to the entire street.
As much as we disagree, you are right on this topic.
It is important to remind PBers that Sean T is a professional purveyor of fiction. So his accounts of fine wines, expensive meals and encounters with the opposite sex are pure fiction, dreamed up from his squalid bed-sit in Neasden, while he microwaves a ready meal from Asda that has been reduced in price because it is getting to its sell by date; on special occasions he goes to Subways with a discount voucher.
His opinions on most subjects are risible
Unfortunately his sleazy tales and love of a freebie are substantially true, just look at his twitter.
His "girlfriends" seem to move on quickly, so one wonders who is using whom. The relationships seem both transient and transactional.
What is this "Twitter" of which I hear people speak?
It is closely related to Twattery.
But it's not the same as Britain.
Actally, and rather alarmingly, British twitter is genial and civil in comparison with over the pond. Tose alt.right twatterers linked to by Plato, and their opponents are seriously deranged.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour is that those in their ranks with ambition to actually do things are pretty much guaranteed that they are going to spend another decade out of power making futile gestures and noises off. That may suit the Corbyns of this world just fine but those with aspirations to actually achieve anything are going to wonder if there are better things to do with their prime years and look elsewhere.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win well enough on June8th to guarantee them a full five years in office, but Labour do well enough for Corbyn and allies to hang on to power in the Labour Party. On current polling, these are both distinct possibilities. Let's say also that Brexit goes badly, another distinct possibility. The backlash is likely to be sufficient for them to be completely blown away in the 2022 election, and replaced by.....well, whoever is not contaminated by the Brexit fallout.
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour is that those in their ranks with ambition to actually do things are pretty much guaranteed that they are going to spend another decade out of power making futile gestures and noises off. That may suit the Corbyns of this world just fine but those with aspirations to actually achieve anything are going to wonder if there are better things to do with their prime years and look elsewhere.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
I don't buy the argument that 10 years is ever guaranteed from any single result. At 10pm on General Election Thursday each party has zero MPs and there is no limit to how many can be gained.
Sure Cameron "only" gained 97 Blair gained 145 seats. Even if Labour are down to 150 then gaining 145 seats puts them on 295 and within range for a coalition.
However there is no reason why Blair or Cameron are the ceiling of their ambitions. Just because no leader had done as many gains for their party before them didn't stop them and they could have gained more and a future leader might gain more. Afterall in 2015 the SNP gained 50 out of the 53 they didn't have before the election.
Additionally, Cameron and Blair both got their scores after a decent losing performance by their predecessor. Kinnock had ran Major close, while Howard had scored quite a few gains and was no IDS/Corbyn.
If Corbyn goes in 2017 having dropped them to 150 then the "par" score for an utterly mediocre but not Marxist Labour leader five years later must at least 50 gains back to 200 respectability. Add in a Blair/Cameron style inspiration leader and they can stage a Lazarus type comeback to win in 2022.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour is that those in their ranks with ambition to actually do things are pretty much guaranteed that they are going to spend another decade out of power making futile gestures and noises off. That may suit the Corbyns of this world just fine but those with aspirations to actually achieve anything are going to wonder if there are better things to do with their prime years and look elsewhere.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
I don't buy the argument that 10 years is ever guaranteed from any single result. At 10pm on General Election Thursday each party has zero MPs and there is no limit to how many can be gained.
Sure Cameron "only" gained 97 Blair gained 145 seats. Even if Labour are down to 150 then gaining 145 seats puts them on 295 and within range for a coalition.
However there is no reason why Blair or Cameron are the ceiling of their ambitions. Just because no leader had done as many gains for their party before them didn't stop them and they could have gained more and a future leader might gain more. Afterall in 2015 the SNP gained 50 out of the 53 they didn't have before the election.
Additionally, Cameron and Blair both got their scores after a decent losing performance by their predecessor. Kinnock had ran Major close, while Howard had scored quite a few gains and was no IDS/Corbyn.
If Corbyn goes in 2017 having dropped them to 150 then the "par" score for an utterly mediocre but not Marxist Labour leader five years later must at least 50 gains back to 200 respectability. Add in a Blair/Cameron style inspiration leader and they can stage a Lazarus type comeback to win in 2022.
The next Labour leader can surely head the reds back to respectability. With Tim Farron looking more like he'll do a modern day Clement Davies rather than a Grimmond, there looks to be plenty of space for when the Tories inevitably fall back from the high 40s to around 40 A la the SNP.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour is that those in their ranks with ambition to actually do things are pretty much guaranteed that they are going to spend another decade out of power making futile gestures and noises off. That may suit the Corbyns of this world just fine but those with aspirations to actually achieve anything are going to wonder if there are better things to do with their prime years and look elsewhere.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say t
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
Yes. The SNP surge is proof of what can happen when a dam breaks, and a very bad brexit has that potential, but even in that scenario it would depend on who would benefit, and how well, to determine if they could survive the breaking with a majority.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win well enough on June8th to guarantee them a full five years in office, but Labour do well enough for Corbyn and allies to hang on to power in the Labour Party. On current polling, these are both distinct possibilities. Let's say also that Brexit goes badly, another distinct possibility. The backlash is likely to be sufficient for them to be completely blown away in the 2022 election, and replaced by.....well, whoever is not contaminated by the Brexit fallout.
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
I do think that the breakdown of party loyalties makes for a much more fluid situation.
We need to just look across the channel to see what can happen, and in Canada we saw a party nearly extinguished, then back in government.
Brexiteers do have the advantage in that most Remainers are of working age and most Leavers are heavily subsidised by the state on pensions or benefits. As such they are relatively protected from economic down turns.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
Labour have already been out of power 7 years. Add a decade and we are looking at pretty much a repeat of the entire Thatcher/Major government. Who knows what sort of a country they would be trying to govern at the end of that. The extent of the defeat matters. And its not looking good.
I don't buy the argument that 10 years is ever guaranteed from any single result. At 10pm on General Election Thursday each party has zero MPs and there is no limit to how many can be gained.
Sure Cameron "only" gained 97 Blair gained 145 seats. Even if Labour are down to 150 then gaining 145 seats puts them on 295 and within range for a coalition.
However there is no reason why Blair or Cameron are the ceiling of their ambitions. Just because no leader had done as many gains for their party before them didn't stop them and they could have gained more and a future leader might gain more. Afterall in 2015 the SNP gained 50 out of the 53 they didn't have before the election.
Additionally, Cameron and Blair both got their scores after a decent losing performance by their predecessor. Kinnock had ran Major close, while Howard had scored quite a few gains and was no IDS/Corbyn.
If Corbyn goes in 2017 having dropped them to 150 then the "par" score for an utterly mediocre but not Marxist Labour leader five years later must at least 50 gains back to 200 respectability. Add in a Blair/Cameron style inspiration leader and they can stage a Lazarus type comeback to win in 2022.
The next Labour leader can surely head the reds back to respectability. With Tim Farron looking more like he'll do a modern day Clement Davies rather than a Grimmond, there looks to be plenty of space for when the Tories inevitably fall back from the high 40s to around 40 A la the SNP.
What next Labout Leader?
If the scenario Philip and I outlined came to pass - and it's perfectly plausible - the next change of leadership is likely to be 11 years down the line.
And there's no guarantee the successor will be even more 'respectable' than Jeremy Corbyn.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win well enough on June8th to guarantee them a full five years in office, but Labour do well enough for Corbyn and allies to hang on to power in the Labour Party. On current polling, these are both distinct possibilities. Let's say also that Brexit goes badly, another distinct possibility. The backlash is likely to be sufficient for them to be completely blown away in the 2022 election, and replaced by.....well, whoever is not contaminated by the Brexit fallout.
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
I do think that the breakdown of party loyalties makes for a much more fluid situation.
We need to just look across the channel to see what can happen, and in Canada we saw a party nearly extinguished, then back in government.
Brexiteers do have the advantage in that most Remainers are of working age and most Leavers are heavily subsidised by the state on pensions or benefits. As such they are relatively protected from economic down turns.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
Corbyn is screwed, I think and hope. Remain Labour supporters in safe seats with Remain MPs will vote Labour. He's okay down here. In semi-marginal 'faith, flag and family' Labour seats in provincial seats in the likes of the West Midlands he's going to get fucked. On balance, I think the far-left gets pushed out after June 8. If not, the party splits. En Marche!
Good luck. You decent lefties need to summon the courage and split from the Corbyn-parasitised Labour party, after June 8, if he tries to cling on, or the Marxists attempt to engineer a second and terminal takeover.
The risk to the country is too serious for you to do anything else. Because there is a chance the pendulum could swing and Corbyn's Labour could somehow win. And then Corbyn and Co really would try and impose a Chavez style economic policy on the UK. It is unthinkably horrific. It would make the travails of Brexit look like a passing sniffle. This would be the plague. A nation committing suicide.
Finish off these Far Left fuckers. Deal with the revolting rats in your basement. They threaten to spread to the entire street.
As much as we disagree, you are right on this topic.
I'm not a Tory (and never have been). I'm a rightwinger open to persuasion. I remember Blair's victory in 1997 with wistfulness, and regret at the failed opportunity; I happily admit that Major's Tories were tired and needed to be replaced. New Labour promised so much (and you guys delivered quite a lot, initially).
You need to forget Iraq and forgive yourselves. Kick out the commies. Recover your courage. Face down the mad ranting student twats. Remember what Kinnock did: and do it again.
Britain needs a functioning and sensible leftwing party. Bravery!
My concern is that Corbyn won't quit even when he gets the shellacking that is coming to him. The one hope is that the mad ranters lose enthusiasm, which I think is likely, as most are too young to remember the misery of abject defeat and perpetual opposition. Then I see posts by Big John Owls who, notwithstanding his inability to spell, seems decent and reasonable outside matters related to Corbyn. I wonder, then, if there are enough BJOs to destroy the party beyond June 8.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
I do think that the breakdown of party loyalties makes for a much more fluid situation.
We need to just look across the channel to see what can happen, and in Canada we saw a party nearly extinguished, then back in government.
Brexiteers do have the advantage in that most Remainers are of working age and most Leavers are heavily subsidised by the state on pensions or benefits. As such they are relatively protected from economic down turns.
I'm neither a pensioner, nor on benefits.
The bulk of employed people voted Remain, those protected financially (or believing themselves so) voted Leave. Of course there are exceptions, but Leavers are disproportionally protected from the economic consequences of their votes.
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
I didn't know that. 'Burgundy' and 'Labour' are not words I'd intuitively associate.
There are many wine fans of a Leftie persuasion. Some things transcend politics.
tim's wine recommendations were good, and also his taste in music.
It's a shame he doesn't return - I wonder what he would make of the shambles that is the present-day Labour Party? No doubt he would be somewhat acerbic.
Two things that spring to mind looking at the polls etc.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn. 2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
The consequence for Labour
There's a flaw in your argument, David.
Let's say that the Conservatives win
There's every likelihood this will be Jeremy Corbyn and Allies. Momentum will have succeeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
I do think that the breakdown of party loyalties makes for a much more fluid situation.
We need to just look across the channel to see what can happen, and in Canada we saw a party nearly extinguished, then back in government.
Brexiteers do have the advantage in that most Remainers are of working age and most Leavers are heavily subsidised by the state on pensions or benefits. As such they are relatively protected from economic down turns.
I'm neither a pensioner, nor on benefits.
The bulk of employed people voted Remain, those protected financially (or believing themselves so) voted Leave. Of course there are exceptions, but Leavers are disproportionally protected from the economic consequences of their votes.
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too.
I doubt if that's correct. Pensioners split about 64/36 Leave. About 25% of the voters are pensioners, which means about 70% of Leave voters are of working age.
Two things that spring to mind looking at the polls etc.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn. 2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
If the Conservatives are in 48%, there's nothing odd about Labour on 31%. It's heavily polarised.
The bulk of employed people voted Remain, those protected financially (or believing themselves so) voted Leave. Of course there are exceptions, but Leavers are disproportionally protected from the economic consequences of their votes.
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too. "
I disagree, I voted leave, i have my own business and have no protection of the state, but i despise everything that the EU is - anti-democratic, a club of Elites who are unelected gravy train slurping tossers, who despise the small folk, and see themselves as the ruling classes who know whats best for the plebs. And they want to screw England, they hate us and are jealous of our freedom and nationhood and influence in the world. I voted leave even if it meant some loss to our economy and even to my family because I love England and cherish freedom more than any economic benefit of being in the club
I said last night that the source of the leak on Trump's Big I Am act with the Russians would be a potential indication of how much trouble the President was in.
The source who passed the info on Trump's blabbing is basically a Trump loyalist who concluded that they had to pass the info on. The leak to the media was not necessarily direct from that same person, however and there isn't yet evidence that they directly spoke to the newspaper.
As regards the 'who was the 3rd party intelligence service' whilst the finger is pointing to the Israelis, earlier it was the Jordanians but there is no detail on the collection method, the worry is that the nation source and collection method was deducable.
Few things to note that may help the uninitiated: -In terms of foreign intelligence gathered by Western agencies, 70-80% of actionable info is sourced electronically. Human intelligence, however, can provide urgency, shade and detail that technical gathering often cannot. -There is no guarantee that Israel was the absolute originator of the intelligence if it was human generated. -Its not the impact on IS security measures, which is one problem (find a door, close the door), its the fact that that inferences that can be drawn which will almost certainly go to agencies of nations hostile to the source -Some pointed out downthread media reports that the Israelis had been told by US officials not to pass intelligence to Trump. They generally don't anyway. Its a rare occurance that it comes direct from one PM or President to another and, if it does, its almost certainly has political purpose. What the warning was that there was no guarantee that US agencies, who are obliged to brief the president could ensure that the intelligence would not leak from Trump or his staff This is because US intelligence was aware that Trump and his coterie were linked to adversaries. The device in laptop intelligence happened before Trump got in. Its been a running intelligence operation for quite a while but hit an urgency a number of months back for a couple of reasons.
Law enforcement in the US appears to be using a ratchet of leaked hints and info at the moment. This is not uncommon if they are shaking a tree. The intelligence agencies are also quietly pushing out information to undermine Trump's position.
It isn't politically motivated. Its way bigger than that.
It is important to remind PBers that Sean T is a professional purveyor of fiction. So his accounts of fine wines, expensive meals and encounters with the opposite sex are pure fiction, dreamed up from his squalid bed-sit in Neasden, while he microwaves a ready meal from Asda that has been reduced in price because it is getting to its sell by date; on special occasions he goes to Subways with a discount voucher.
Just ate at a 2 Star in DC - Minibar. Technically spectacular food (about 20 tiny molecular cuisine dishes cooked in front of you), and the most knowledgeable and appropriate service I have ever had anywhere. But, you know what. I don't think I'd eat there again. It was an experience rather than food I actually enjoy (apart from a few amazing mouthfuls).
I'd definitely go back to Contra, the one star in NYC, over Minibar any day of the week.
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
Dr @foxinsoxuk mentioned earlier that the medical authorities would take their own view on her suitability to practice medicine, and that it was somewhat unlikely to be in her favour.
By the way, reading back through the weekend's threads, were some excellent comments from your good self about risk management. As someone who spent the whole weekend dealing with this latest computer virus, add me to the list of those very interested in reading your paper when it's published.
Thanks. And will do. Currently prevaricating - my ideas are all up spread across 3 whiteboards in my office, but I am having difficulty hitting the keyboard.
Just spotted this. I would also be very interested in reading your paper.
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
Dr @foxinsoxuk mentioned earlier that the medical authorities would take their own view on her suitability to practice medicine, and that it was somewhat unlikely to be in her favour.
By the way, reading back through the weekend's threads, were some excellent comments from your good self about risk management. As someone who spent the whole weekend dealing with this latest computer virus, add me to the list of those very interested in reading your paper when it's published.
Thanks. And will do. Currently prevaricating - my ideas are all up spread across 3 whiteboards in my office, but I am having difficulty hitting the keyboard.
Just spotted this. I would also be very interested in reading your paper.
In France, you need to use Gault-Millau, even if it's not as good as it used to be.
In the UK, the Good Food Guide seems to have gone pretty bonkers. You're better off consulting, well, me.
Do you charge and if so do PBers get special rates? Are you like Giles Coren and very seldom move out of the Capital?
Absolutely PBers get a special rate. In fact, I don't charge at all, but obviously I wouldn't expect to have to pay my own bill as I explain quite why the Meo-Camuzet Bourgogne Hautes-Cotes-de-Nuits Blanc Clos Saint-Philibert Monopole 2014 goes so fantastically well with the bream.
No, I don't. That one is absolutely stunning. It's not even a named village wine, yet I think it's the finest white burgundy, outside the top appellations which cost an arm and a leg, that I've ever tasted. And I've tasted a lot.
Hmm.
The Pantellerian sweet wine, Passito, is just fucking mindblowing when it comes from Donnafugata. And I get given a lot of free wine. This is wow. Try.
£32 a bottle? My champagne to celebrate the Tory victory on 8th June will cost less than that. You're losing touch with the real world Sean.
Who gives a fuck about the real world?? I'm a professional travel writer and a millionaire thriller writer. I sell fantasies and nightmares for a living. I don't live in Aldi-land, I live in the world you dreamed of when you were 16.
And my latest girlfriend is stunning - and 21. And funny. And smart. And did I mention she is very beautiful?
Worst of all: all this is true.
In about 3 years I will have some weird, fast, terminal cancer that simultaneously destroys my brain and my penis, and I will ask for PB-ers to visit me in my hospice, bringing smuggled jam-jars of own-brand Asda gin.
But for now: CHORTLE. I have lived the life.
Enjoy
Your postings brighten up many a dull middle aged life in suburbia despite what others claim.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
I didn't know that. 'Burgundy' and 'Labour' are not words I'd intuitively associate.
There are many wine fans of a Leftie persuasion. Some things transcend politics.
tim's wine recommendations were good, and also his taste in music.
It's a shame he doesn't return - I wonder what he would make of the shambles that is the present-day Labour Party? No doubt he would be somewhat acerbic.
Two things that spring to mind looking at the polls etc.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn. 2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
If the Conservatives are in 48%, there's nothing odd about Labour on 31%. It's heavily polarised.
There is in that all the anecdotal stuff points to JC losing support amongst traditional WWC Labour supporters. So he has to be picking them up from somewhere to get the extra votes. But where? Those who voted LD in 2015? The Labour leaning ones left in 2015 because of the coalition? The Greens? Possibly but enough to offset WWC deduction. UKIP? Where is his appeal to those who defected in the first place.
I'm guessing about 80% of British people have travelled abroad at least once, and if just they'd beeen voting in the referendum it would have been a narrow victory for Remain. The other 20% probably voted for Brexit by a huge margin and made the difference. I eagerly await confirmation/refutation of this from the academics.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
I didn't know that. 'Burgundy' and 'Labour' are not words I'd intuitively associate.
There are many wine fans of a Leftie persuasion. Some things transcend politics.
tim's wine recommendations were good, and also his taste in music.
It's a shame he doesn't return - I wonder what he would make of the shambles that is the present-day Labour Party? No doubt he would be somewhat acerbic.
I wish you joy with your success but I regret to say your wine recommendations have passed beyond the useful to the fantastical.
Um, thanks, but actually £30 for a bottle of Donnafugata Pantellerian sweet wine is a bargain.
It's one of the greatest dessert wines I have ever tasted. You're not going to drink more than one glass each in an evening. And it lasts for ages (basically forever if you don't open it). So you can enjoy, several times, an intensely luxurious, world class experience which costs you £5 or £10 a night, the price of two or three pints of beer, and you can do this over weeks.
Try it. And try it with one of your brilliant new Scottish blue cheeses.
One of the paired wines at Minibar was an excellent Trockenbeerenauslese. Alas, I failed to note the details. But I could see that going nicely with a Stilton.
It don't think it is penetrating insight on my part to point out that Corbyn has lost the 2017 election. The key for Labour is what next. If they go down to 200 and they somehow and slightly miraculously find a Cameron in their midst who can win 100 seats for them they form the next government in 2022. There are some big ifs there but it is possible. If they go down to 150 then even a Cameron does not put them in government, even in coalition, since at 250 it is very likely that the Tories will still be 300 +.
Tsucceeded.
Well?
The backlash being sufficient to overturn what seems probable to be a very large Tory majority, would be dependent on how bad Brexit goes. Things can go bad, very bad, without things reversing 180 degrees, and if they have a very large buffer, the chances of a Brexit backlash being so severe as take the Tories down next time diminishes. No it isn't impossible, but I think assuming Brexit going badly means the Tories to be blown away in 2022 is 'likely' ignores the critical fact of how bad we are talking here.
Yes of course. It all depends on how badly Brexit goes, but with FPTP the kind of majority that can be overturned at a single election is pretty huge - much larger than even the more optimistic Conservative supporters have in mind at present.
Agree?
Agreed-as party loyalty/ tribalism breakdown, large / enormous swings should be no surprise-even expected.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
Two things that spring to mind looking at the polls etc.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn. 2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
As to your 1, if they think it is a good idea to move the betting markets by piling on to Corbyn/Labour, it would be odd if they a fortiori weren't also spamming the online pollsters which is the same thing, only doesn't cost stake money. Only thing is, if they are doing that and it works for V.I. why doesn't it work for best PM - and therefore negate your point 2?
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
Did the stake come with a vine attached? I'll get my coat ...
The bulk of employed people voted Remain, those protected financially (or believing themselves so) voted Leave. Of course there are exceptions, but Leavers are disproportionally protected from the economic consequences of their votes.
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too.
"
I disagree, I voted leave, i have my own business and have no protection of the state, but i despise everything that the EU is - anti-democratic, a club of Elites who are unelected gravy train slurping tossers, who despise the small folk, and see themselves as the ruling classes who know whats best for the plebs. And they want to screw England, they hate us and are jealous of our freedom and nationhood and influence in the world. I voted leave even if it meant some loss to our economy and even to my family because I love England and cherish freedom more than any economic benefit of being in the club
Bravo
Well said. I have a small business and would eat grass rather than see Britain a province in a European Superstate. Britain's independence as a soverign state is more precious than gold. Even if I believed Project Fear it would make not a whit of difference. The remainiat search for an explanation for the Leave vote in mumbo jumbo about globalisation and the Left Behind. The plain fact is that millions of people have a deep love of Britain and a deep loathing of the EU.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
And a Brexiteer..
Presumably as part of the Brexit negotiations we are seeking the return of Bordeaux, the Dardogne, Calais and Burgundy ...
One of a number of ideological Leavers, but my point is demographically correct. Leavers will be resistant to changing their minds if Brexit is a car crash because:
1) A high proportion are retired, or in work heavily subsidised by housing benefit and tax credits, so economically protected.
2) Many care little about the economics, they would rather be poor and free of foreign influence.
3) The sunk costs fallacy, with it all being evidence of how evil the EU was to not agree all our demands.
Actually, I think the only party that has truly embraced the idea of Leave is the Corbynite Labour party. Much of todays manifesto is only possible outside the EU, and it displays a fortress Britain mentality that ignores economic reality in the rest of the world. Conceptually Corbyn knows that the biggest bar to his vision is the EU. Leavers can feel safe with him at the wheel.
Two things that spring to mind looking at the polls etc.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn. 2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
If the Conservatives are in 48%, there's nothing odd about Labour on 31%. It's heavily polarised.
There is in that all the anecdotal stuff points to JC losing support amongst traditional WWC Labour supporters. So he has to be picking them up from somewhere to get the extra votes. But where? Those who voted LD in 2015? The Labour leaning ones left in 2015 because of the coalition? The Greens? Possibly but enough to offset WWC deduction. UKIP? Where is his appeal to those who defected in the first place.
He's gaining support from a small number of UKIP supporters from 2015, left wing Lib Dems, Greens, and former non-voters.
I said last night that the source of the leak on Trump's Big I Am act with the Russians would be a potential indication of how much trouble the President was in.
The source who passed the info on Trump's blabbing is basically a Trump loyalist who concluded that they had to pass the info on. The leak to the media was not necessarily direct from that same person, however and there isn't yet evidence that they directly spoke to the newspaper.
As regards the 'who was the 3rd party intelligence service' whilst the finger is pointing to the Israelis, earlier it was the Jordanians but there is no detail on the collection method, the worry is that the nation source and collection method was deducable.
Few things to note that may help the uninitiated: -In terms of foreign intelligence gathered by Western agencies, 70-80% of actionable info is sourced electronically. Human intelligence, however, can provide urgency, shade and detail that technical gathering often cannot. -There is no guarantee that Israel was the absolute originator of the intelligence if it was human generated. -Its not the impact on IS security measures, which is one problem (find a door, close the door), its the fact that that inferences that can be drawn which will almost certainly go to agencies of nations hostile to the source -Some pointed out downthread media reports that the Israelis had been told by US officials not to pass intelligence to Trump. They generally don't anyway. Its a rare occurance that it comes direct from one PM or President to another and, if it does, its almost certainly has political purpose. What the warning was that there was no guarantee that US agencies, who are obliged to brief the president could ensure that the intelligence would not leak from Trump or his staff This is because US intelligence was aware that Trump and his coterie were linked to adversaries. The device in laptop intelligence happened before Trump got in. Its been a running intelligence operation for quite a while but hit an urgency a number of months back for a couple of reasons.
Law enforcement in the US appears to be using a ratchet of leaked hints and info at the moment. This is not uncommon if they are shaking a tree. The intelligence agencies are also quietly pushing out information to undermine Trump's position.
It isn't politically motivated. Its way bigger than that.
Thank you-thats a very interesting post
Going forwards how do you view the next few months panning out for Trump??
Online activism was one of the major critiques of online polling in 2015. Web use is also skewed heavily towards the young. Unfortunately. the telephones generate 'shyness'.
Recently observed pollster error/skew is a good correctional mechanism in my view.
It's a shame that we haven't had a few by-election constituency polls to baseline against.
Some of the odds I'm finding still available are absolutely astonishing.
I am struggling to see a lot of value out there, though 4/1 tipped by NickP on Cambridge Lab hold is seemingly good value. Cambridge is full of communist sympathisers as Any Fule Kno.
Online activism was one of the major critiques of online polling in 2015. Web use is also skewed heavily towards the young. Unfortunately. the telephones generate 'shyness'.
Recently observed pollster error/skew is a good correctional mechanism in my view.
It's a shame that we haven't had a few by-election constituency polls to baseline against.
It was the online polls that were accurate for Brexit though.
Some of the odds I'm finding still available are absolutely astonishing.
I am struggling to see a lot of value out there, though 4/1 tipped by NickP on Cambridge Lab hold is seemingly good value. Cambridge is full of communist sympathisers as Any Fule Kno.
To be fair to the local residents it's disproportionately the graduates who are spies.
One of a number of ideological Leavers, but my point is demographically correct. Leavers will be resistant to changing their minds if Brexit is a car crash because:
1) A high proportion are retired, or in work heavily subsidised by housing benefit and tax credits, so economically protected.
2) Many care little about the economics, they would rather be poor and free of foreign influence.
3) The sunk costs fallacy, with it all being evidence of how evil the EU was to not agree all our demands.
Actually, I think the only party that has truly embraced the idea of Leave is the Corbynite Labour party. Much of todays manifesto is only possible outside the EU, and it displays a fortress Britain mentality that ignores economic reality in the rest of the world. Conceptually Corbyn knows that the biggest bar to his vision is the EU. Leavers can feel safe with him at the wheel.
Liberal free traders believe in Brexit rather than the protectionist EU.
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
And a Brexiteer..
Presumably as part of the Brexit negotiations we are seeking the return of Bordeaux, the Dardogne, Calais and Burgundy ...
Looks like the plan of voting for Trump as he'll be easier to impeach (I think one of the Tims saw a bumper sticker?) is going well...
PBers voted for Trump? You cannot be serious!
It was not a bumper sticker we saw, but one we thought we should make up. Unfortunately, we never got around to it. The only sticker on my car is the flag of St Piran.
I'm guessing about 80% of British people have travelled abroad at least once, and if just they'd beeen voting in the referendum it would have been a narrow victory for Remain. The other 20% probably voted for Brexit by a huge margin and made the difference. I eagerly await confirmation/refutation of this from the academics.
I have lived overseas for several years Worked for a French comapny for several years And visited 36 different countries ( I regard Tibet as an independent country)
In no small part because of this experience of different countries and cultures i voted OUT
Haven't tried that particular one, although I have tried other Dujac whites, and jolly good they were too. But they are a lot more expensive - 1er cru Morey St Denis is not going to be a bargain.
Mind you, I'm up for a comparative tasting!
Dear god I'm getting old I remember when Dujac was a stunning new find in the early '90s...
We bought a stake in the vineyard in '94. And then it became a stunning 'new find'. Funny that
ha well done you. Anne Gros was another superstar in the making and look at them now. Was also the time I came across Guffens-Heynen.
Clearly we need to organise a Burgundy sub-committee of the PB wine-tasting group.
Rope in Kelvin Hopkins MP. He is probably the best informed MP in the House on Burgundy. He visits many of the vineyards during the summer.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
And a Brexiteer..
Presumably as part of the Brexit negotiations we are seeking the return of Bordeaux, the Dardogne, Calais and Burgundy ...
No Calais is a Sh!t hole But Bordeaux have some good rugby teams so they can join the freedom bus.
Corbyn is screwed, I think and hope. Remain Labour supporters in safe seats with Remain MPs will vote Labour. He's okay down here. In semi-marginal 'faith, flag and family' Labour seats in provincial seats in the likes of the West Midlands he's going to get fucked. On balance, I think the far-left gets pushed out after June 8. If not, the party splits. En Marche!
Good luck. You decent lefties need to summon the courage and split from the Corbyn-parasitised Labour party, after June 8, if he tries to cling on, or the Marxists attempt to engineer a second and terminal takeover.
The risk to the country is too serious for you to do anything else. Because there is a chance the pendulum could swing and Corbyn's Labour could somehow win. And then Corbyn and Co really would try and impose a Chavez style economic policy on the UK. It is unthinkably horrific. It would make the travails of Brexit look like a passing sniffle. This would be the plague. A nation committing suicide.
Finish off these Far Left fuckers. Deal with the revolting rats in your basement. They threaten to spread to the entire street.
As much as we disagree, you are right on this topic.
I'm not a Tory (and never have been). I'm a rightwinger open to persuasion. I remember Blair's victory in 1997 with wistfulness, and regret at the failed opportunity; I happily admit that Major's Tories were tired and needed to be replaced. New Labour promised so much (and you guys delivered quite a lot, initially).
You need to forget Iraq and forgive yourselves. Kick out the commies. Recover your courage. Face down the mad ranting student twats. Remember what Kinnock did: and do it again.
Britain needs a functioning and sensible leftwing party. Bravery!
Online activism was one of the major critiques of online polling in 2015. Web use is also skewed heavily towards the young. Unfortunately. the telephones generate 'shyness'.
Recently observed pollster error/skew is a good correctional mechanism in my view.
It's a shame that we haven't had a few by-election constituency polls to baseline against.
"Web use is also skewed heavily towards the young." May be correct overall if you include social media, porn and gaming, but if you limit it to things which might in any way be described as political discourse I doubt the effect is that strong. Bear in mind that the young become the old, and do not appear to grow out of internet use as they do so.
I hate to think what the median age is of PBers, but we are no spring chickens.
One of a number of ideological Leavers, but my point is demographically correct. Leavers will be resistant to changing their minds if Brexit is a car crash because:
1) A high proportion are retired, or in work heavily subsidised by housing benefit and tax credits, so economically protected.
2) Many care little about the economics, they would rather be poor and free of foreign influence.
3) The sunk costs fallacy, with it all being evidence of how evil the EU was to not agree all our demands.
Actually, I think the only party that has truly embraced the idea of Leave is the Corbynite Labour party. Much of todays manifesto is only possible outside the EU, and it displays a fortress Britain mentality that ignores economic reality in the rest of the world. Conceptually Corbyn knows that the biggest bar to his vision is the EU. Leavers can feel safe with him at the wheel.
Liberal free traders believe in Brexit rather than the protectionist EU.
I know, because I am one.
Absolutely, we are a global, free trading nation, partnering with other countries but not being ruled by them, and not part of some protectionist racket that the EU is. We have always been an outward looking country, and being a province of the rotten corpse of the corrupt undemocratic EU is not the destiny I want for my children and grandchildren.
One of a number of ideological Leavers, but my point is demographically correct. Leavers will be resistant to changing their minds if Brexit is a car crash because:
1) A high proportion are retired, or in work heavily subsidised by housing benefit and tax credits, so economically protected.
2) Many care little about the economics, they would rather be poor and free of foreign influence.
3) The sunk costs fallacy, with it all being evidence of how evil the EU was to not agree all our demands.
Actually, I think the only party that has truly embraced the idea of Leave is the Corbynite Labour party. Much of todays manifesto is only possible outside the EU, and it displays a fortress Britain mentality that ignores economic reality in the rest of the world. Conceptually Corbyn knows that the biggest bar to his vision is the EU. Leavers can feel safe with him at the wheel.
Some interesting points But as a Leaver I really dont feel safe with Jezza at the wheel !
Comments
Thanks. As in the end of WWII the fight As much as we disagree, you are right on this topic.
Edit: no, definitely not tonight.
https://twitter.com/matthewamiller/status/862849567221534721
Agree?
Sure Cameron "only" gained 97
Blair gained 145 seats. Even if Labour are down to 150 then gaining 145 seats puts them on 295 and within range for a coalition.
However there is no reason why Blair or Cameron are the ceiling of their ambitions. Just because no leader had done as many gains for their party before them didn't stop them and they could have gained more and a future leader might gain more. Afterall in 2015 the SNP gained 50 out of the 53 they didn't have before the election.
Additionally, Cameron and Blair both got their scores after a decent losing performance by their predecessor. Kinnock had ran Major close, while Howard had scored quite a few gains and was no IDS/Corbyn.
If Corbyn goes in 2017 having dropped them to 150 then the "par" score for an utterly mediocre but not Marxist Labour leader five years later must at least 50 gains back to 200 respectability. Add in a Blair/Cameron style inspiration leader and they can stage a Lazarus type comeback to win in 2022.
Coincidentally we have made exactly the same point at the same time.
This is not some nightmare scenario we have just dreamed up. It really could happen.
We need to just look across the channel to see what can happen, and in Canada we saw a party nearly extinguished, then back in government.
Brexiteers do have the advantage in that most Remainers are of working age and most Leavers are heavily subsidised by the state on pensions or benefits. As such they are relatively protected from economic down turns.
If the scenario Philip and I outlined came to pass - and it's perfectly plausible - the next change of leadership is likely to be 11 years down the line.
And there's no guarantee the successor will be even more 'respectable' than Jeremy Corbyn.
A self-confessed Burgundy Bolshie....
He didn't say you were...
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too.
1. Wasn't there an article on Guido claiming that Corbyn supporters were being encouraged to sign up to polling companies so they could say they were voting Labour and thus boost the Great Leader's cause? I find that a better excuse for Labour polling higher than a sudden rush love for Corbyn.
2. Post-the 2015 GE, there was an article on here stating the opinion polls were right, we were just looking at the wrong question. So instead of looking at VI, the key was looking at whom the population said was the best PM, which pointed to a Conservative victory. TM is polling 50-60 points ahead of JC. That suggests a massive majority.
When it comes to voting, open your eyes and see. Outside the right-on Left and the Muslim Asian vote, no one is voting JC. Then bet accordingly.
"I'm neither a pensioner, nor on benefits.
The bulk of employed people voted Remain, those protected financially (or believing themselves so) voted Leave. Of course there are exceptions, but Leavers are disproportionally protected from the economic consequences of their votes.
I am working, and in an economically protected job, so pretty safe economically and an exception too. "
I disagree, I voted leave, i have my own business and have no protection of the state, but i despise everything that the EU is - anti-democratic, a club of Elites who are unelected gravy train slurping tossers, who despise the small folk, and see themselves as the ruling classes who know whats best for the plebs. And they want to screw England, they hate us and are jealous of our freedom and nationhood and influence in the world. I voted leave even if it meant some loss to our economy and even to my family because I love England and cherish freedom more than any economic benefit of being in the club
The source who passed the info on Trump's blabbing is basically a Trump loyalist who concluded that they had to pass the info on. The leak to the media was not necessarily direct from that same person, however and there isn't yet evidence that they directly spoke to the newspaper.
As regards the 'who was the 3rd party intelligence service' whilst the finger is pointing to the Israelis, earlier it was the Jordanians but there is no detail on the collection method, the worry is that the nation source and collection method was deducable.
Few things to note that may help the uninitiated:
-In terms of foreign intelligence gathered by Western agencies, 70-80% of actionable info is sourced electronically. Human intelligence, however, can provide urgency, shade and detail that technical gathering often cannot.
-There is no guarantee that Israel was the absolute originator of the intelligence if it was human generated.
-Its not the impact on IS security measures, which is one problem (find a door, close the door), its the fact that that inferences that can be drawn which will almost certainly go to agencies of nations hostile to the source
-Some pointed out downthread media reports that the Israelis had been told by US officials not to pass intelligence to Trump. They generally don't anyway. Its a rare occurance that it comes direct from one PM or President to another and, if it does, its almost certainly has political purpose. What the warning was that there was no guarantee that US agencies, who are obliged to brief the president could ensure that the intelligence would not leak from Trump or his staff This is because US intelligence was aware that Trump and his coterie were linked to adversaries. The device in laptop intelligence happened before Trump got in. Its been a running intelligence operation for quite a while but hit an urgency a number of months back for a couple of reasons.
Law enforcement in the US appears to be using a ratchet of leaked hints and info at the moment. This is not uncommon if they are shaking a tree. The intelligence agencies are also quietly pushing out information to undermine Trump's position.
It isn't politically motivated. Its way bigger than that.
Just ate at a 2 Star in DC - Minibar. Technically spectacular food (about 20 tiny molecular cuisine dishes cooked in front of you), and the most knowledgeable and appropriate service I have ever had anywhere. But, you know what. I don't think I'd eat there again. It was an experience rather than food I actually enjoy (apart from a few amazing mouthfuls).
I'd definitely go back to Contra, the one star in NYC, over Minibar any day of the week.
Your postings brighten up many a dull middle aged life in suburbia despite what others claim.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/864497869751013376
Interesting that he doesn't think Labour will get 200 seats.
Is there anyone on PB who thinks that this guy is fit to be POTUS?
I disagree, I voted leave, i have my own business and have no protection of the state, but i despise everything that the EU is - anti-democratic, a club of Elites who are unelected gravy train slurping tossers, who despise the small folk, and see themselves as the ruling classes who know whats best for the plebs. And they want to screw England, they hate us and are jealous of our freedom and nationhood and influence in the world. I voted leave even if it meant some loss to our economy and even to my family because I love England and cherish freedom more than any economic benefit of being in the club
Bravo
Well said. I have a small business and would eat grass rather than see Britain a province in a European Superstate. Britain's independence as a soverign state is more precious than gold. Even if I believed Project Fear it would make not a whit of difference. The remainiat search for an explanation for the Leave vote in mumbo jumbo about globalisation and the Left Behind. The plain fact is that millions of people have a deep love of Britain and a deep loathing of the EU.
One of a number of ideological Leavers, but my point is demographically correct. Leavers will be resistant to changing their minds if Brexit is a car crash because:
1) A high proportion are retired, or in work heavily subsidised by housing benefit and tax credits, so economically protected.
2) Many care little about the economics, they would rather be poor and free of foreign influence.
3) The sunk costs fallacy, with it all being evidence of how evil the EU was to not agree all our demands.
Actually, I think the only party that has truly embraced the idea of Leave is the Corbynite Labour party. Much of todays manifesto is only possible outside the EU, and it displays a fortress Britain mentality that ignores economic reality in the rest of the world. Conceptually Corbyn knows that the biggest bar to his vision is the EU. Leavers can feel safe with him at the wheel.
But the more he trolls the establishment and the more the left lash out in fear the more I'm becoming a fan.
Going forwards how do you view the next few months panning out for Trump??
Recently observed pollster error/skew is a good correctional mechanism in my view.
It's a shame that we haven't had a few by-election constituency polls to baseline against.
I know, because I am one.
Worked for a French comapny for several years
And visited 36 different countries ( I regard Tibet as an independent country)
In no small part because of this experience of different countries and cultures i voted OUT
Calais is a Sh!t hole
But Bordeaux have some good rugby teams so they can join the freedom bus.
I hate to think what the median age is of PBers, but we are no spring chickens.
And mishandling sensitive intelligence information
Right?
But as a Leaver I really dont feel safe with Jezza at the wheel !
North Cornwall
60+% leave, 14% head start for the Tories, 6000+ UKIP votes to mine.
Old demographic I reckon, and 1st time incumbency also.
This should be 1-50, not 1-4.
Tom Watson going doesn't actually upset me that much. He's been utterly useless in opposing Corbyn. Sadiq Khan has done a better job of that FGS.
https://twitter.com/fordm/status/864260301943963648