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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Any Other Party worth a bet for South Shields?

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  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Yougov shock poll suggests British public have sense of fairness, work ethic and commonsense....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    I fear this will not please the eurosceptics and backbenchers. To say the least. ;)

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @MSmithsonPB: Just 10% of those questioned in the Opinium/Observer said they believed more welfare cuts should be made
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Brown was consistently popular, despite spending less than Osborne


    Is that why he lost against the Fops in 2010?

    :)
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    So Brains from Thunderbirds is going back to International Rescue. Good riddance to bad rubbish
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Mick_Pork

    'I fear this will not please the eurosceptics and backbenchers. To say the least. ;)'

    If they naive enough to believe an article written by Toby 'Gove out by the weekend' Helm.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Dave and George were the only two people in the country not to see the treaty situation unfolding.
    Or maybe they did see it but decided that the Master Strategy would work anyway.

    Grant added: "Even if there was a move to amend one or two articles, the UK would not gain leverage: Britain's partners could bypass a veto as they did with last year's 'fiscal compact' treaty, which was negotiated outside the framework of the EU."

    Government sources said the prime minister still believed he could achieve a better deal for the UK whether or not there was a new treaty.
    Looks like the fops are conceding defeat already.
    Those poor gullible eurosceptics. Made to look like complete idiots after the flounce that wasn't and now Cammies cast iron referendum is falling to pieces. They just never learn.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @Sunil

    Brown was popular during the fake boom paid by the magic money tree until everything collapsed.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Peter Hitchens. who can disagree? Why isn't attempted murder as serious as murder?

    Cardboard justice created Mick Philpott

    The Devil, as I was brought up to believe, finds work for idle hands. And there is no doubt that many people are corrupted in dozens of ways by the paid idleness offered to them by both major political parties.

    The more I think of the way in which our great industries were destroyed, leaving millions of men with no proper work to do, the angrier I get.

    But in the case of Mick Philpott, I think it is our cardboard criminal justice system that is at fault, not the welfare state. It is only thanks to the skill of doctors that Kim Hill, his first victim, survived.

    Philpott stabbed her 27 times and ripped out a phone to stop anyone calling for help. I think attacks of this kind, which would certainly have led to the victim’s death 50 years ago, should be classed as murder and punished by hanging. The intent is clearly murderous. Why should the would-be killer be spared because good people have saved his victim?

    But in any case the law should have responded to this foul act with more than a ‘seven-year’ sentence, an official lie told with the deliberate intention of fooling the public. In fact, he served only three years and two months.

    And he did so in conditions that he no doubt found it easy to cope with – no hard labour, no discomfort, no austerity, no discipline, in short nothing that he would have feared undergoing again.

    Philpott knows all about fear. As the judge noted, he liked to use his attempted murder conviction to scare his fellow creatures into doing his nasty will. But he never experienced fear himself. Two years ago, police were called when Philpott dragged his wife out of the house by her hair, after striking her. The police response to this action, committed by a known and convicted savage, was a ‘caution’ (they issue these for rape, too).

    This was far worse than useless. It must have encouraged him in his justified belief that the authorities, too, were scared of him. How his neighbours must have trembled when they found out he had been let off. At the time of his final filthy offence, he was on bail after another violent attack.

    I can only say it once again. If people such as Philpott are not afraid of the law – and they aren’t – then the rest of us will have to be afraid of them.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2013
    @sam
    Peter Hitchens does not really understand how the criminal law operates in this area. At the heart of any sentencing exercise is an assessment of the offender's culpability. Culpability depends on a number of factors including inter alia the intention of the offender, the means by which the offence was committed, and the consequences of the offence.

    Murder is unlawful killing with the intention to kill or to cause grievous bodily harm. A person guilty of murder is sentenced to imprisonment for life, and the court then determines a minimum term ("the tariff") which the offender must serve before they can be considered for release by the Parole Board. Attempted murder is the commission of an act which is more than merely preparatory to the commission of an offence of murder, with intent to kill. A person guilty of attempted murder is liable to imprisonment for life.

    In a very serious case of attempted murder, a person could be sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of twenty years. In a less serious case of murder, (eg where there was no intention to kill, no use of a weapon, the defendant had pleaded guilty at the earliest opportunity and had shown remorse), a defendant might be sentenced to life imprisonment with a ten year tariff.

    The determination of the tariff in the case of murder and the sentence in the case of attempted murder therefore depends on a consideration of the facts of each case. Attempted murder can be more severely punished than murder if that is what is merited. Now it may well be the case that the sentence imposed on Mr Philpott for attempted murder was unduly lenient. It was passed, after all, before the Court of Appeal was given jurisdiction to increase unduly lenient sentences on an Attorney General's reference. That doesn't mean that the case raises wider questions about the nature and purposes of sentencing, or suggests, as Mr Hitchens demands, that the death penalty should be returned for an offence not punishable by death in over two hundred years.
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited April 2013

    @sam
    Peter Hitchens does not really understand how the criminal law operates in this area. At the heart of any sentencing exercise is an assessment of the offender's culpability. Culpability depends on a number of factors including inter alia the intention of the offender, the means by which the offence was committed, and the consequences of the offence.

    Murder is unlawful killing with the intention to kill or to cause grievous bodily harm. A person guilty of murder is sentenced to imprisonment for life, and the court then determines a minimum term ("the tariff") which the offender must serve before they can be considered for release by the Parole Board. Attempted murder is the commission of an act which is more than merely preparatory to the commission of an offence of murder, with intent to kill. A person guilty of attempted murder is liable to imprisonment for life.

    In a very serious case of attempted murder, a person could be sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of twenty years. In a less serious case of murder, (eg where there was no intention to kill, no use of a weapon, the defendant had pleaded guilty at the earliest opportunity and had shown remorse), a defendant might be sentenced to life imprisonment with a ten year tariff.

    The determination of the tariff in the case of murder and the sentence in the case of attempted murder therefore depends on a consideration of the facts of each case. Attempted murder can be more severely punished than murder if that is what is merited. Now it may well be the case that the sentence imposed on Mr Philpott for attempted murder was unduly lenient. It was passed, after all, before the Court of Appeal was given jurisdiction to increase unduly lenient sentences on an Attorney General's reference. That doesn't mean that the case raises wider questions about the nature and purposes of sentencing, or suggests, as Mr Hitchens demands, that the death penalty should be returned for an offence not punishable by death in over two hundred years.

    So Philpott got 38 months and kept on commtting violent crimes against others. It was waiting to happen, and after the initial sentence was no accident.
    Not sure what it would take to get a five year sentence if what he did gets you just over three.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2013
    "North Korea tension prompts US missile test delay"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22056387

    Quite clever diplomacy. Allows the Jung-un to save face & declare a supreme and undeniable victory against the belligerent imperialist aggressors. Even if there wasn't a test planned, it would make sense to quietly arrange one in order to very publicly cancel it.

    Kim needs our help to get himself out of this mess.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2013
    On topic - yes 'any other' is probably value. Betfair have now got a market up & I've had £4 at 129/1 & also laid a few hundred on Lab @ 1/25. For some reason Betfair have the 'event' starting on 2nd May - hopefully if date changes, the market won't be voided.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2013
    Mike - I've just donated £25 to the site to help out with vanilla/bandwidth costs. It may be an idea to include a paypal link on the right hand side of the page to make things a bit easier.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 5th - 7th April - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -39
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov:

    Doing well/badly: DC:-23(0); EM:-30(-5); NC:-54(-4)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Dave and George were the only two people in the country not to see the treaty situation unfolding.
    Or maybe they did see it but decided that the Master Strategy would work anyway.

    The second one. The whole point of this exercise was to make a referendum promise that they could wriggle out of. In this case the ability to wriggle out of it comes from the fact that they're hooking the referendum onto a treaty that's always just around the corner, but never actually arrives.

    Merkel has been fairly helpful to them on this up until now. I'd want to hear a direct quote from her before concluding that the Germans have given up pretending to think there's going to be a treaty any time soon - it doesn't cost her anything to throw Cameron a bone.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    YouGov gets voters to split themselves by class:

    Working class; upper working class; lower middle class; middle class and upper middle class.

    UKIP supporters are; 15,12,10,10,9.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As predicted...

    @skynewsniall: According to Sunday People poll 66% agree with George Osborne that welfare system is broken. Do you?

    Ed struggling to catch up. Again.
This discussion has been closed.