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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Any Other Party worth a bet for South Shields?
The South Shields by-election ought to be as close to a certainty as it’s possible to get as by-elections go. With Labour the sole main party of opposition, in a seat that they’ve held since 1935 where they’re defending a majority of more than eleven thousand secured on a poor national share, it should be no contest.
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Would you be prepared to eat it in Dirty Dicks, Mike?
I don't think there's much chance, but if it did happen I'm sure we would all like to see you do it! :-)
They seem to be getting all the best jobs these days.
@AndyJS - just seen your earlier comment ;^) I'm still about, just not very interested in the micro-stuff and silly media trivia - hopefully something more meaningful than who parked in what space or went to what nightclub or whataboutery will be replaced with a real story. I can be barely bothered to read the rubbish that passes for informed comment in the broadsheets or their wittering on Twitter.
We really are at the bottom of mid-term if this is the best on offer.
For anyone interested - Nikita is quite good as a TV version of the Bourne Identity/assassin drama genre.
The last time the Thames in London froze was in 1814! Um, must be a little bit of artistic licence!
For the upstream sections (ie. west of Windsor), the last occasion was 1963.
Wiki article on "frost fairs":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
The Thames near Camden? The Thames must be a good mile, at least, from Camden. SO I think the answer to your question must be a resounding no.
As an aside I don't think the Thames has frozen in or near London since the early 19th century.
Luc Besson, 1990. Fantastic film. Probably one of my all-time top 10.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0100263/?ref_=sr_6
Micro-stuff does tend to be the province of male anoraks and I know it can be rather off-putting to people not in that category.
Many thanks - it seemed very unlikely and I thought Camden was way off the river but my geography of that bit of London is largely about the strange shoe shops/lots of studenty types with tattoos... the background shots looked more like somewhere in E Europe and there were too many foreign number plates on the cars - but then there were also Tube signs so I was rather perplexed and wondered if Camden wasn't as I remembered it!
I still can't see any reason to fake the Thames being frozen just so someone could fall in, and say it was in Camden since I'd imagine 99.9% of the US viewers would never have heard of it - most peculiar stuff.
PS I went to a museum last week that was supposed be only open in summer, but luckily it turned out it's already summer. As you can see from this picture:
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BGvYGltCAAEVzwN.jpg
Don't want to worry their little heads with detail do we. Run along I'm sure there's work to do in the kitchen.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alias_(TV_series)
candidate"
George Galloway is not an "Any Other" candidate. George Galloway is George Galloway.
http://bantiblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/racism.html
Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Green: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 4%
Pirate: 3%
Others: 3%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
"PS I went to a museum last week that was supposed be only open in summer"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnwsIfn0vyM
Anything is possible!!
I was having a go at male anoraks like myself with that comment, not everyone else, although maybe I didn't phrase it very well.
In 1546 the Mayor of Warsaw allegedly died as a result of spontaneous human combustion. Anyone got a more recent example?
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-expects-record-showing-in-cumbria-1.1047951
Looks like Ukip are really getting a national organisation into being at last.
Thanks - will have a looksee. Revolution has got a lot better towards the middle/end of S1, and I'm rather hooked on Once Upon A Time. Shame Zero Hour got canned after just 3 episodes - it had potential and a good plot.
If you really want to watch good TV have a look at "Game of Thrones". Unless you've seen it already.
http://youtu.be/ufbWFqCEeZk
There seems to be a problem with the sound when I try to re-watch the video now, but if I recall correctly they mentioned trying to give everyone a chance to vote for a UKIP candidate, but that there were 500-600 candidates getting extra support (I think that was just a personalised leaflet).
RT @eaamalyon: Ref Kevin Stroud has decided Barnsley's kit is too similar to Palace's, so Barnsley will wear CPFC away kit. Absolutely brilliant.
I think the main remaining question is whether Merkel's far greater personal popularity than Steinbruck will prove crucial when the campaign proper gets underway. But as the CDU are already at an unusually high level the popularity of Merkel may already be factored into the figures.
I read an interesting article about the opposition holding a clear majority in the Bundesrat, and how there are parallels to the way in which the SPD and Greens were able to use their Bundesrat majority to paralyse Kohl's legislative agenda in the run-up to the 1998 election.
SeanT recommended Spartacus and Walking Dead IIRC - the reviews have been very patchy so have those on the list for a rainy afternoon...
IIRC someone important in the local Party has already stressed the need for a genuine local man. Or woman!
The Shields Gazette website makes interesting reading.
Thanks for the link. Interesting regarding race=culture which is denied by the Leftons as he calls them. He also mentions religion and then shies away from it.
He is right regarding slavery being practised by all races. Last time I attended a slave market was about three years ago and what was most shocking was the disregard for the dignity of humanity by the slave traders. The slaves were from aged 5 upwards and of both sexes.
The Game of Thrones books are better than the TV series.
http://www.georgerrmartin.com/book-category/?cat=song-of-ice-and-fire
Edit. Yay! My 100 comment badge. I will print it off and wear it with pride. Who needs likes when you've got badges?
Edit edit. Oh, 31 people have got there before me. Not so special then. Still...
A very weak showing considering this is on the HS2 route.
"Last time I attended a slave market was about three years ago.....The slaves were from aged 5 upwards and of both sexes."
I hope you chose wisely.
Think that any EU citizen can stand in the County elections, but you have to be British for Parliament. Interestingly I don't that's not true everywhere in the EU - didn't Nick Clegg once stand on a Dutch Euro-list?
Lots of Labour selections coming up, then a pause till after the May elections, except for places like London that don't have any.
http://wwwm.betbutler.co.uk/mail/
Decent offer if anyone fancies a casual punt.
No card details required.
Must be placed before 4pm.
The Thames (and the sea in the Thames Estuary, as well as elsewhere) froze in the Great Winter of 1962/3 and also in the bitter winter of 1947. Those who lived through both say the '47 winter was worse - not least because coal was rationed (under Attlee!) so people could not afford to heat their homes..........
Can Jon survive? That just might get me to buy the next one.
Tea For Three
Colbert Station
On His Own.
http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/2997-nigel-farage-the-common-sense-tour
I was there to observe for a NGO.
Staff at the National Mississippi River Museum & Aquarium assumed Cashew the tortoise had been stolen when they couldn't find him. An employee later found Cashew trapped behind a panel in his enclosure.
Concerned about embarrassment being caused to the museum, the staff member hid Cashew in a lift. Officials later found the tortoise and said that the thief must have brought him back. However, the employee later came forward to explain the situation.
The museum's chief executive Jerry Enzler said: "The action taken by the employee on Thursday afternoon was wrong and is not reflective of the integrity of the staff who dedicate themselves to the highest of Museum & Aquarium standards."
Read more: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/odd/news/a471023/museum-staged-tortoise-robbery-to-avoid-embarrassment.html?utm_source=twt&utm_medium=snets&utm_campaign=twitter#ixzz2PhF4BBdc
Open most days when they are not recording.
Anyway, Yes the Thames did freeze over in 1947 and in the winter of 1962/3 but upstream of Teddington (Windsor was the most downstream, I think). Therefore not in or near London, though I grant you what I think of as near London may not be to everyone's taste.
As for Atlee's government, one must remember that it actually rationed bread (which had been freely available, off-ration, throughout WW2). In fact the more I read about Atlee and his gang, something I have only done since I retired, the angrier I get. A more incompetent, if well meaning, bunch of buffoons under a more useless "leader" it would be difficult to imagine - well until Cameron and his clique got their sticky mits on the levers of power.
When I first moved down South - I once asked why there weren't any snow posts and was met with blank looks and then even odder ones when I explained what they were. Funny how just 300 miles can make such a difference to ones experience of weather that's commonplace elsewhere on such a small island.
Two nowhere (Balthazar King and Roberto Goldback).
No lottery win but should buy a lunch.
When I first moved down South - I once asked why there weren't any snow posts and was met with blank looks and then even odder ones when I explained what they were. Funny how just 300 miles can make such a difference to ones experience of weather that's commonplace elsewhere on such a small island.
In Jan 1963, in Lancashire we got cut off from our outside toilet!
It was only just outside the back door but the snow was blowing in so hard I couldn't clear it. Didn't make a lot of difference, as it was frozen solid!
Very difficult to write this without leaving opportunities for jokes about back passages etc.
When I first moved down South - I once asked why there weren't any snow posts and was met with blank looks and then even odder ones when I explained what they were. Funny how just 300 miles can make such a difference to ones experience of weather that's commonplace elsewhere on such a small island.
Plato:
There used to be some snow fences on the coast road across the Downs just west of Eastbourne.
However I had a very successful double on the previous two races (near 8/1) and could not make up my mind for the big race so saved my money, thankfully.
" In Jan 1963, in Lancashire we got cut off from our outside toilet!"
EPIC!
I used to have a thermometer in my bedroom to see how cold it got - it was regularly 45F at night during the winter back in the 70s. My house is usually less than 10C now but that's considered appalling when it'd be 50F = positively tropical!
Great to see a Scojockey triumph this afternoon. Well done to Ryan Mania.
http://twitpic.com/chg2mh
"Beaten just a head in the Scottish National at Ayr a year ago, the 11-year-old had been well beaten in recent starts but came to challenge for the lead jumping the final fence.
While the complexion of the National has changed so many times on the long run-in in the past, the result was scarcely in doubt on this occasion as Auroras Encore galloped all the way to the line under Ryan Mania to score by nine lengths."
Assuming that is a true summary of the Horse's form, is there anyone else who smells a large rat? Well beaten in recent races but has the stamina to win the National by nine lengths?
I believe that 50F is about 10C - or have I missed your point? As a child ice inside the bedroom windows was a common occurrence and during some winters it did not thaw during the daytime. A bedroom fire in the grate was not allowed unless I was near death's door.
The horse hasn't had his ground for a very long time. That and the improvement in the weather is enough explanation for me.
Scottish GN form has always been a good guide to today's race.
I found out just 2 of them so far
PAul Williams...a GP doctor from Stockton
Lewis Atkinson....from Gateshead CLP. Former NEC candidate. Former local election candidate in South Tyneside and Sunderland.
I was joking that 50F was warm ;^ ) I had ice a few times but not too often as my bedroom faced due east and if there was any sun got it in spades - my brother had a bigger room that faced north and never warmed up.
My home office faces NE and gets wonderful views of sunrises and was effing freezing even with the central heating and an oil heater on full blast. My fingers used to get too chilly to type in bad north windy weather... the more places I've lived in - the more I realised the importance of aspect to a home and its windows than ever.
OK, if you say so, Mr. P..
*Retreats, growling suspiciously, into his lair*
His age would have put me off, and recently the top weights have done well, but this isn't really a freak result.
"find the bathwater frozen IN the bath"
Brrrrrrrrr. We used to walk back from our swimming lessons when I was a kid and our hair used to freeze solid as we'd no time to dry it before leaving the baths. The water was cold enough to leave us with goosepimples even after 30 mins of racing up and down. Bloody private schools...
When I was at boarding school in Crieff in the 1970s we had 12 boys in the room and for very understandable reasons the windows were always open. In the winter we used to wake and find unmelted snow on the duvets of those unlucky enough to be near the window as well as the floor. I am sure it was character building really.
It was an old-fashioned end-of-terrace flat over an open-all-hours, with a superb view across a lake and up to the Pennines.
"... 12 boys in the room and for very understandable reasons the windows were always open."
Sorry, Mr. L., but I don't understand why the windows had to be open. I admit I was a South London grammar-school grunt, but what was it about you posh chaps that meant you you had to have a constant supply of fresh-air?
Smiley-face thing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2304833/Iain-Duncan-Smith-My-days-breadline-disgraceful-BBC-wife-love-sustains-me.html
Our teachers used to tick us off for being soft as previous pupils had put up with frozen ink wells at their desks - and we still sat as the same ones with ancient graffiti that'd turn your cuffs blue.
This looks like value to me, but do your own research.
William Hill's machines down at 3pm so PP got the cash. Did anyone at William Hill think today might be a good day a) to make sure your computers don't break; and b) double check to make sure your computers don't break?
Evidently not.
The big question is whether the current leader of South Tyneside council makes it to the short-list or, indeed, any local councillors.
Ukip need a Diane James.
The other partes are irrelevant.
Suits and The Following are SUPERB. So is White Collar [from same stable as Suits] for clever plotting, rom com drama.
Red Widow is developing as is The Cult [aimed at teens/20s but quite compelling]. If you haven't tried Once Upon A Time - give it a go, it takes a few episodes to get out of the Buffy phase and then is rather clever and twists and turns.
The US wipes the floor with the BBC and ITV output - even series like Motive which tells the audience who the villan and victim is within the first 2 mins is head and shoulders above the crap churned out here. It speaks volumes that torrent sites are almost 100% US output for their top 200 downloads.
I adored Ugly Betty = its just so camp and AbFab with superb plotting - but its a rip-off of a Mexican TV show IIRC.
The Killing is obviously not from the US, Red Widow is pinched from elsewhere, HoC isn't HoC... very interesting cultural stuff
https://twitter.com/GABaines/status/320577051448995841/photo/1