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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap e

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    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    (Just between you and me - do men have much choice in shoes? They seem to have a selection of either brown or black canoe-like objects. Not much variety in shape, style or colour)

    I fear you may have just unleashed TSE...
    Repression is not good for the soul. It is best to let it all out :)
    My biggest regret on the shoe front was not buying the most comfortable pair of shoes I have ever tried on, wearing and walking them was like getting your feet massaged by angels.

    The only problem with them was that they were made from crocodile leather, and I have some very animal loving friend who would have taken great offence at me wearing such a pair.
    Dead cow good; dead highly-efficient killing-machine bad?
    Killing cows is good, cows cause global warming.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Eeewwwwww

    @MrHarryCole: Had second old school Tory MP - in all seriousness - refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy" on the phone today. That's twice in a week.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,762
    Scott_P said:

    Posters seem to be a thing of the past. In 2010 I became increasingly obsessed with it, driving home from work lots of different way in a vain attempt to find any at all for any party.

    In the end I saw a grand total of 3 in the entire campaign, one a generic "vote conservative" in a farmer's field, and one LD on what transpired to be the candidate's own house :-)

    There were a few more in farmer's fields in 2015 (basically all either UKIP or tory) but very few really. Although I did see quite a lot of Lab and a few Con somewhere in west Manchester on a work trip.

    Edinburgh council has banned political posters
    Really? I can see a yellowing and curling at the edges YES poster across the street in someone else's window. There were a couple more that eventually dropped off like stubborn leaves from a tree in winter.

    (If T May ever agrees an Indyref2, I hope she insists the question is "Should Scotland stay in the UK?". The people "making the journey to Yes" will then have to make the return trip back to "No")
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,532
    edited April 2017

    Can someone provide me with a link/graph showing the rich paid more tax under the Tories than under Labour?

    Edit: And the poorest paid less tax.

    It might be a big ask given your Hero's "Austerity" budgets :D

    Have you been selected for Tatton yet?
    No, alas I'd make a terrible MP

    1) I'd get into terrible trouble for speaking my mind

    2) I'd be a shit MP dealing with plebs casework

    3) I couldn't afford the paycut, which means my shoe and fashion budget is cut.
    You need to become an mep. Just look at the sartorial peaks scaled by Nige & Nuttall.
    I think you're repressing forgetting David Coburn's sartorial elegance.

    That said, me spending that much time in France is an accident waiting to happen.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited April 2017

    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    (Just between you and me - do men have much choice in shoes? They seem to have a selection of either brown or black canoe-like objects. Not much variety in shape, style or colour)

    I fear you may have just unleashed TSE...
    Repression is not good for the soul. It is best to let it all out :)
    My biggest regret on the shoe front was not buying the most comfortable pair of shoes I have ever tried on, wearing and walking them was like getting your feet massaged by angels.

    The only problem with them was that they were made from crocodile leather, and I have some very animal loving friend who would have taken great offence at me wearing such a pair.
    Dead cow good; dead highly-efficient killing-machine bad?
    Killing cows is good, cows cause global warming.
    Don't let Sunil's nan hear that !
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2017

    Anorak said:

    Repression is not good for the soul. It is best to let it all out :)

    My biggest regret on the shoe front was not buying the most comfortable pair of shoes I have ever tried on, wearing and walking them was like getting your feet massaged by angels.

    The only problem with them was that they were made from crocodile leather, and I have some very animal loving friend who would have taken great offence at me wearing such a pair.
    Dead cow good; dead highly-efficient killing-machine bad?
    Killing cows is good, cows cause global warming.
    https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/topic/crocodile-attack/
    There are so many of the malevolent, man-eating monsters they frequently need culling. And making into shoes.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids..That is before you get to all the mega spending.

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Urquhart, when my old walking boots (for dog walking) split, I had to find a different pair. Couldn't get the same ones.

    Men who enjoy shoe-shopping are deviants.

    Quite right Mr. D. I have three pairs of shoes, 1 highly polished black oxfords for weddings, funerals and formal occasions (don't get worn much these days), 1 slightly less polished and softer black oxfords for normal wear, 1 pair brown brogues for semi-formal events outside London. On top of which one pair decent walking boots and one pair Clarkes trekker sandals for walking in the summer. I have had the same combination for thirty years or more, indeed the shoes are at least ten years old though I had to replace the boots two years ago (the old pair finally fell apart beyond repair having been bought in the early eighties) and the sandals last year (the quality of Clarkes footwear has really gone downhill since they moved the manufacturing abroad).

    The same goes for clothing generally. I kept one suit, two or three formal shirts to wear with it other than that I have a few pairs of corduroys and jeans, a couple of pairs of shorts and a bunch of polo or other informal shirts and a few jumpers. I don't seem to need any more than that.

    I have kept my tie collection though. I don't know why but I find getting rid of a tie to be beyond my capabilities. Perhaps it's because too many memories are associated with each one.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids...

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    pension triple lock is the interesting one. Will Tories drop it?
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    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
    It was Roger Casement that really got me hooked on the law and the comma.
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    My favourite PB thread was the one where I gave Jeremy Corbyn some fashion advice just shortly before he became leader.

    If only he had listened to me.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/

    Your favorite thread isn't an AV one?
    *has a fit of the vapors*
    *Whisper it very quietly, I might be doing an AV thread this weekend, if I get the time.*

    This Sunday is a bit hectic for both Mike and I.
    Will there be a Eurovision thread this year?
    UK must be very short odds for nul points I would guess.

    I'm relying on three points from the Irish and two from the Danish juries. Beyond that it could become a little tricky.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131

    IanB2 said:


    3) I couldn't afford the paycut, which means my shoe and fashion budget is cut.

    Say no more! Cuts to the shoe budget are simply intolerable.

    (Just between you and me - do men have much choice in shoes? They seem to have a selection of either brown or black canoe-like objects. Not much variety in shape, style or colour)
    It's easy. Men only need to buy a pair when holes appear in the current pair, or the sole starts to fall off. We then look for a pair as similar as possible to the old ones.
    Quite so. Assistants who say "But maybe you'd like to try another pair before you decide?" are just irritating. Gimme the shoes and let me out of here. Never buy shoes with a partner present!
    Women never buy shoes with a man present. We might just realise how much that wall of shoe boxes climbing up the bedroom wall has cost.....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956
    I'd urge everyone to retweet and "fav" this in order to try and get some better odds in the GE...

    https://twitter.com/CorbynFor_PM/status/855311760806486016
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What I presume is the final Opinionway poll of the first round is very tight:

    Emmanuel Macron 23% (=)
    Marine Le Pen 22% (=)
    Francois Fillon 21% (+1)
    Jean Luc Macron 18% (-1)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,320

    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.


    This Sunday is a bit hectic for both Mike and I.

    You need your help as well!

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: New: PM's ace press secretary Lizzie Loudon has quit.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    The only use for cars is to get from A to B and keep the weather off you and your shopping. All this "Ultimate driving durch technik" stuff is overkill. A Hyundai I10 is all that is needed.

    And the only use for shoes is to keep your feet out of the sh mud.

    A couple of pairs is all that is needed...

    [ducks]
    For you lot on that side of the fence perhaps, over on this side, shoes make the outfit
    Not true at all. Shoes maketh the man. You can judge a chap by the choice and quality of his footwear, and cheap nasty shoes can make you look like a chav even if you're wearing a two grand suit.

    Moreover, women judge men by their shoes.

    The first and only rule of male shoe buying is spend as much as you can. Price really does = quality.
    I tend to go on how men talk and behave. I prefer a charmer in rags to a spiv in a Saville Row suit. Obviously a well dressed man starts from a better position but if he acts like prat then clothes will not save him.

    Make me laugh. Charm me. I like men who make me feel good.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd urge everyone to retweet and "fav" this in order to try and get some better odds in the GE...

    https://twitter.com/CorbynFor_PM/status/855311760806486016

    Corbasm.....
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    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids...

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    pension triple lock is the interesting one. Will Tories drop it?
    Probably index it to inflation
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd urge everyone to retweet and "fav" this in order to try and get some better odds in the GE...

    https://twitter.com/CorbynFor_PM/status/855311760806486016

    Oh God, those people that put a tenner on Corbyn as next PM/Labour majority are going to win their bets.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, cheers for that Oxford comma picture. Really rather good.

    Mr. P, that is rather vomit-inducing.

    I think Theresa May would be far more convincing than [redacted for spoilers] as the Big Villain in Episode VII.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd urge everyone to retweet and "fav" this in order to try and get some better odds in the GE...

    https://twitter.com/CorbynFor_PM/status/855311760806486016

    A clearer example of the [lack of] value in voodoo polling couldn't be asked for.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,228
    Scott_P said:

    Posters seem to be a thing of the past. In 2010 I became increasingly obsessed with it, driving home from work lots of different way in a vain attempt to find any at all for any party.

    In the end I saw a grand total of 3 in the entire campaign, one a generic "vote conservative" in a farmer's field, and one LD on what transpired to be the candidate's own house :-)

    There were a few more in farmer's fields in 2015 (basically all either UKIP or tory) but very few really. Although I did see quite a lot of Lab and a few Con somewhere in west Manchester on a work trip.

    Edinburgh council has banned political posters
    Glasgow has for a while but S.Lanarkshire hasn't, so you can drive from a desert of political expression to an explosion of electoral colour in an instant, several to a lampost sometimes. Doubt much will be happening for the locals mind.
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    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
    It was Roger Casement that really got me hooked on the law and the comma.
    The apostrophe is my pet hate ..... which reminds me, where's that old PB.com stalwart GIN this morning?
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    I assume Mike will be doing a thread on this

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/855178805463445504
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: So that's Theresa May lost a spokeswoman and director of communications inside 3 days. Careless.
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    Mr. Eagles, cheers for that Oxford comma picture. Really rather good.

    Mr. P, that is rather vomit-inducing.

    I think Theresa May would be far more convincing than [redacted for spoilers] as the Big Villain in Episode VII.

    That picture has always cracked me up.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    What I presume is the final Opinionway poll of the first round is very tight:

    Emmanuel Macron 23% (=)
    Marine Le Pen 22% (=)
    Francois Fillon 21% (+1)
    Jean Luc Macron 18% (-1)

    Too close to call basically.

    Derivatives markets are in hedging mode:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/20/options-market-shows-insider-alarm-frexit-upset/
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Women never buy shoes with a man present

    Be honest, that is mostly because you bored and wander off...

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd urge everyone to retweet and "fav" this in order to try and get some better odds in the GE...

    twitter.com/CorbynFor_PM/status/855311760806486016

    The day the polls turned....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    I assume Mike will be doing a thread on this

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/855178805463445504

    I'll be glad to help the rebalancing of their books.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    I think the medical abbreviation is "NFD" - Normal For Devon....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,762

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids...

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    pension triple lock is the interesting one. Will Tories drop it?
    Probably index it to inflation
    Which happens to be the highest of the three lock measures currently. It was the fixed 2.5% that really ratcheted up the pension in real terms during a period of ultra-low inflation.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,958
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: So that's Theresa May lost a spokeswoman and director of communications inside 3 days. Careless.

    The impending landslide GE win will do little to hide the embarrassment
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BudG said:

    Last day of polls from the French election.

    First up, Elabe:

    Macron 24 (=)
    Le Pen 21.5 (-1.5)
    Fillon 20 (+0.5)
    Melenchon 19.5 (+1.5)

    http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/20042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-10.pdf

    Perhaps more significant than the headline first-round votes are the scenarios for the 2nd round (page 17). Note that Macron wins easily against any of the other candidates. Le Pen loses badly against any of the other candidates. Fillon loses unless his opponent is Le Pen. Mélenchon wins against Le Pen or Fillon but loses to Macron.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    I have more books on 4th/3rd century BC Macedonian military adventures than shoes.

    Priorities, people!

    I should probably buy more. Only I have no money. Or shelf space. Or time. But apart from that... :p

    Anyway, to work!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,320

    Women never buy shoes with a man present

    Be honest, that is mostly because you bored and wander off...

    I can concede you had a point, of sorts, about cars downthread. The difference however is that I doubt many men would find buying it more rewarding than actually driving it?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Pulpstar said:

    I assume Mike will be doing a thread on this

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/855178805463445504

    I'll be glad to help the rebalancing of their books.
    Mark Wallace‏Verified account @wallaceme 15h15 hours ago
    Mark Wallace Retweeted Heather Mendick

    Trying to work out in what world this seems like a better use of money than spending it on leaflets.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    yesterday

    https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/854663430657245184

    today

    @JamieRoss7: Nicola Sturgeon says a "progressive alliance" with Labour is "not credible" because Jeremy Corbyn won't deliver the numbers needed.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    Eeewwwwww

    @MrHarryCole: Had second old school Tory MP - in all seriousness - refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy" on the phone today. That's twice in a week.

    I can see the resemblence https://i.ytimg.com/vi/nzkIva5I6DE/maxresdefault.jpg
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,320
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids...

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    pension triple lock is the interesting one. Will Tories drop it?
    Probably index it to inflation
    Which happens to be the highest of the three lock measures currently. It was the fixed 2.5% that really ratcheted up the pension in real terms during a period of ultra-low inflation.
    I suspect the Tories intend to drop the 2.5% and revert to a double lock, at just the point where the 2.5% bit becomes the least relevant part of the formula.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    I assume Mike will be doing a thread on this

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/855178805463445504

    I'll be glad to help the rebalancing of their books.
    This explains the generous odds I was asking about earlier. Tory majority at 1/7 sounds like free money, unless I've missed several of J Corbyn's redeeming features?
  • Options

    What I presume is the final Opinionway poll of the first round is very tight:

    Emmanuel Macron 23% (=)
    Marine Le Pen 22% (=)
    Francois Fillon 21% (+1)
    Jean Luc Macron 18% (-1)

    An impressive late run by Macron Jnr to be sure!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,320
    Dadge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I assume Mike will be doing a thread on this

    https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/855178805463445504

    I'll be glad to help the rebalancing of their books.
    This explains the generous odds I was asking about earlier. Tory majority at 1/7 sounds like free money, unless I've missed several of J Corbyn's redeeming features?
    Tory most seats has worse odds but is surely nailed on? A majority looks almost inevitable but with our voting system cannot be absolutely guaranteed.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,714

    IIRC there was a black swan in 1970, but I can’t recall what it was. I think Feb 74 wasn’t what what was initially expected, either.
    Long time ago, of course.

    What if Gordon Banks had played?

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    Problem with that bet is if it pays out all your newly acquired pounds will be worthless.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    There's lots of laying I'd like to do but my pockets aren't deep enough.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids..That is before you get to all the mega spending.

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    Perhaps TSE could ask his pal George, since it is Osborne who ran up the national debt to record levels. In any case, those examples are either cheap or already in place.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
    It was Roger Casement that really got me hooked on the law and the comma.
    Don't get hung up on it
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids...

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    pension triple lock is the interesting one. Will Tories drop it?
    If I were them I'd include a manifesto commitment to maintain it until 2020.

    "we keep our promises"
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Blimey, that tweet from SCottP reminds me that I own a 35 room hotel. Easy thing to forget about, simple mistake to make
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    What I presume is the final Opinionway poll of the first round is very tight:

    Emmanuel Macron 23% (=)
    Marine Le Pen 22% (=)
    Francois Fillon 21% (+1)
    Jean Luc Macron 18% (-1)

    An impressive late run by Macron Jnr to be sure!
    Oops!
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Ipsos:

    Macron 24 (+1)
    Le Pen 22 (-0.5)
    Fillon 19 (-0.5)
    Melenchon 19 (=)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    Blimey, that tweet from SCottP reminds me that I own a 35 room hotel. Easy thing to forget about, simple mistake to make

    Happens to the best of us...
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    "first time canvassers" - Is that a reference to deck shoes?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Retail Sales are up 5.1% in value compared to the same month last year.

    Online retail is up 19.5% compared to last year.

    You need to compare volume, not value. Volume is up 1.9%. So we're shelling out 5.1% more than a year ago, to get 1.9% more stuff.

    Unless your income is rising by 3.2% or more, that means you are seeing your real spending power squeezed*.

    * Yes, I know there are complications around tax and the like.

    Edit to add: household income is up a little less than 4% on a year-over-year basis, so that suggests (worryingly) that the savings rate continues to fall.
    The savings aspect is an almost inevitable consequence of ultra low interest rates.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Thanks, incidentally, to @isam's link to the article showing that the French polls, while very consistent, aren't necessarily herding.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
  • Options

    Jezza ban on ZHC, £10 minimum wage, pension triple lock, free school meals for all primary school kids..That is before you get to all the mega spending.

    Question is how long until Uk PLC is bust?

    Perhaps TSE could ask his pal George, since it is Osborne who ran up the national debt to record levels. In any case, those examples are either cheap or already in place.
    Almost like you forget what the deficit was when George became Chancellor.

    Anyone know the figure both in absolute and in % of GDP terms ?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Not be so much laughter about Scottish GDP now one would imagine.
    Just waiting for one of the usual suspects to blame the SNP
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
    Someone has just put few quid at 9.4!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350

    I blog on current events. Well, I draw a comparison between the 4th century BC and Nicola Sturgeon's call for a progressive alliance:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/the-power-paradox.html

    Was that the first call for another referendum?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
    Not worried about the itv "poll"? ;-)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131

    Women never buy shoes with a man present

    Be honest, that is mostly because you bored and wander off...

    One of my colleagues was once on the end of some blatant sexism, not getting the same bonus as her two male colleagues. So we bundled her into a cab and took her on a surprise trip to Manolo Blahnik and told her to buy what she wanted - on us.

    So you may have done me an injustice!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
    Someone has just put few quid at 9.4!
    I've directed the Corbynista to the market.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Labour offering £10 a hour mini wage and will compensate smaller firms who can't afford to pay out.

    £12.50 in next weeks rolling manifesto !!
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
    It was Roger Casement that really got me hooked on the law and the comma.
    The Oxford comma is needed when it is needed. Most of the time it is not.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Retail Sales are up 5.1% in value compared to the same month last year.

    Online retail is up 19.5% compared to last year.

    You need to compare volume, not value. Volume is up 1.9%. So we're shelling out 5.1% more than a year ago, to get 1.9% more stuff.

    Unless your income is rising by 3.2% or more, that means you are seeing your real spending power squeezed*.

    * Yes, I know there are complications around tax and the like.

    Edit to add: household income is up a little less than 4% on a year-over-year basis, so that suggests (worryingly) that the savings rate continues to fall.
    The savings aspect is an almost inevitable consequence of ultra low interest rates.

    Disagree.

    Switzerland has a savings rate of 18.3% with negative interest rates, Germany has 9.7%, etc.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
    Not worried about the itv "poll"? ;-)
    Not really, the online poll would have just been spammed by Facebook momentum group.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. L, 23 centuries would at least encompass a full generation...
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:

    And punctuation has been reduced to two commas and a full stop. Used randomly.

    and Capitalisation (sic)
    They need my help. Grammar, punctuation, and capitalisation is important, it is the difference between helping your uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
    Dunno which to jump on first in the above, the use of "is" rather than "are" or the Oxford comma....

    Edit: and the comma where there should be a full stop!
    Irony old bean.

    But I really do love love love love the Oxford comma.

    image
    Of course you love the Oxford comma. You're a lawyer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay
    It was Roger Casement that really got me hooked on the law and the comma.
    The Oxford comma is needed when it is needed. Most of the time it is not.
    The relevance of an absent comma made a recent appearance in the US courtrooms:

    https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/844514973405659136
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Women never buy shoes with a man present

    Be honest, that is mostly because you bored and wander off...

    One of my colleagues was once on the end of some blatant sexism, not getting the same bonus as her two male colleagues. So we bundled her into a cab and took her on a surprise trip to Manolo Blahnik and told her to buy what she wanted - on us.

    So you may have done me an injustice!
    Well done you! :+1: Apologies where due :)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350
    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    One other thought struck me from listening to Farage last night - namely how important a politician's voice is. We all know looks matter but so does sound.

    Farage has, I never fully appreciated before, a lovely voice. Mellifluous. Listenable to. Welcoming. I don't agree with all he says but I like to hear him say it nonetheless.

    Blair's voice was clear, confident, articulate. Again, I didn't agree much of the time but I liked listening.
    Maggie - clipped, nasal and hectoring. But clear, controlling, powerful. Demanded attention and respect.
    Farron - very clear and articulate. Emanates intelligence and passion. Talks bollocks mostly but I want to hear it. A super voice. Unlike Clegg who always sounds whiney and petulant and dismissive and 'I know better than you'.
    May - Calm, measured, authoritative, enunciates, trustworthy. And slightly nervous... which is kind of endearing in the country's most powerful person. I think she's been having voice training. I like listening.
    Corbyn - Angry. Dimwitted. Breathy. Passionate. Energised. Mumbled quite often. Offputting somehow that I can't quite put my finger on. I want to switch off.
    Sturgeon - Har ye nae plook mar dookie the noo? Ya wee fucken numpti. Or something along those lines. It's not the soft Scottish of Morningside.

    May vs Corbyn on yesterday morning tv news pieces were striking. May doing her Merkel Mutti routine, calm what we need is stability, where as Corbyn was ranting like a Speaker's Corner nutter banging on about the end is nigh.

    I am sure Corbynistas thinks that demonstrates passion, he just sounded bloody bonkers.
    Indeed. I hear Labour ex-miners are asking for Tory posters in the NE. This would be funny if we weren't talking about our own democracy.
    Ex-miners asking for Tory posters sounds a bit far fetched. Maybe they are just running short of toilet paper.
    Patrick McLoughlin, the conservative party Chairman is a former miner
    Not a lot of people know this, but OGH used to be a minor.
    Well, we were all young once.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Cheurfi had been detained in February for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after “informants” had indicated that he was “seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen”, according to reports.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/paris-police-close-part-city-centre-amid-reports-officers-shot/
  • Options
    The thing that boils my piss is this. From 2013

    Outrage at local authority plans to abolish apostrophe

    Mid Devon District Council's vote on whether to remove apostrophes from street signs 'to avoid confusion' is widely condemned

    If only halfwitted thickos could learn how to use apostrophes.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2013/mar/15/council-ban-apostrophe
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynista: you can still get 9 on Jezza being next PM on BF. Get your money in on this sure-fire winner.

    That's a lovely bet (To lay) except it won't pay out on 8th June.
    Sorry I should have said it is the "next PM after GE" market.

    Rules: "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
    Just put a hundred quid up at 9.2 for the Corbynistas to get stuck into.
    Not worried about the itv "poll"? ;-)
    Not really, the online poll would have just been spammed by Facebook momentum group.
    Surely not...It is surely evidence that 21st Century Socialism is sweeping the nation.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    SeanT said:

    Vive la France.

    The Ice Twins just got a rave review in the nation's biggest paper. 20minutes. A free paper with 2-3 million captive commuter readers.

    http://www.20minutes.fr/livres/2050919-20170420-jeune-fille-pretend-etre-ur-jumelle-pourtant-decedee-intrigue-angoissante-doute-k-tremayne

    Congrats! I hope you enjoy taking money off the French :D
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, dumbing down like that is unacceptable.

    Mr. Urquhart, I feel some sympathy for the French here. As with us, it's probably impossible to monitor every single potential lunatic, because there are so many of the zealous nutcases.
  • Options

    Patrick said:

    One other thought struck me from listening to Farage last night - namely how important a politician's voice is. We all know looks matter but so does sound.

    Farage has, I never fully appreciated before, a lovely voice. Mellifluous. Listenable to. Welcoming. I don't agree with all he says but I like to hear him say it nonetheless.

    Blair's voice was clear, confident, articulate. Again, I didn't agree much of the time but I liked listening.
    Maggie - clipped, nasal and hectoring. But clear, controlling, powerful. Demanded attention and respect.
    Farron - very clear and articulate. Emanates intelligence and passion. Talks bollocks mostly but I want to hear it. A super voice. Unlike Clegg who always sounds whiney and petulant and dismissive and 'I know better than you'.
    May - Calm, measured, authoritative, enunciates, trustworthy. And slightly nervous... which is kind of endearing in the country's most powerful person. I think she's been having voice training. I like listening.
    Corbyn - Angry. Dimwitted. Breathy. Passionate. Energised. Mumbled quite often. Offputting somehow that I can't quite put my finger on. I want to switch off.
    Sturgeon - Har ye nae plook mar dookie the noo? Ya wee fucken numpti. Or something along those lines. It's not the soft Scottish of Morningside.

    How interesting, I disagree with a lot of that.

    Farage sounds like a braying posh w'nker who smokes far too much and has an opinion of himself approximately 5 times higher than justified. Dreadful. Cameron was similar but not as bad

    Farron's voice is also terrible to my ears, I suspect I would prejudicially think the same about anyone with his accent though, apols but I can't stand it. Clegg was much better

    Corbyn's not too bad as long as he doesn't get tetchy, and Sturgeon I think always comes across well. More or less agree on Blair and May though.

    You are describing content and accent. I am talking about voice.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,762
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    One other thought struck me from listening to Farage last night - namely how important a politician's voice is. We all know looks matter but so does sound.

    Farage has, I never fully appreciated before, a lovely voice. Mellifluous. Listenable to. Welcoming. I don't agree with all he says but I like to hear him say it nonetheless.

    Blair's voice was clear, confident, articulate. Again, I didn't agree much of the time but I liked listening.
    Maggie - clipped, nasal and hectoring. But clear, controlling, powerful. Demanded attention and respect.
    Farron - very clear and articulate. Emanates intelligence and passion. Talks bollocks mostly but I want to hear it. A super voice. Unlike Clegg who always sounds whiney and petulant and dismissive and 'I know better than you'.
    May - Calm, measured, authoritative, enunciates, trustworthy. And slightly nervous... which is kind of endearing in the country's most powerful person. I think she's been having voice training. I like listening.
    Corbyn - Angry. Dimwitted. Breathy. Passionate. Energised. Mumbled quite often. Offputting somehow that I can't quite put my finger on. I want to switch off.
    Sturgeon - Har ye nae plook mar dookie the noo? Ya wee fucken numpti. Or something along those lines. It's not the soft Scottish of Morningside.

    May vs Corbyn on yesterday morning tv news pieces were striking. May doing her Merkel Mutti routine, calm what we need is stability, where as Corbyn was ranting like a Speaker's Corner nutter banging on about the end is nigh.

    I am sure Corbynistas thinks that demonstrates passion, he just sounded bloody bonkers.
    Indeed. I hear Labour ex-miners are asking for Tory posters in the NE. This would be funny if we weren't talking about our own democracy.
    Ex-miners asking for Tory posters sounds a bit far fetched. Maybe they are just running short of toilet paper.
    Patrick McLoughlin, the conservative party Chairman is a former miner
    Not a lot of people know this, but OGH used to be a minor.
    Well, we were all young once.
    Even Morris was a minor once...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956
    Btw My Facebook friends, alot of whom voted for Ed Miliband last time are having serious reservations regarding Corbyn.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Retail Sales are up 5.1% in value compared to the same month last year.

    Online retail is up 19.5% compared to last year.

    You need to compare volume, not value. Volume is up 1.9%. So we're shelling out 5.1% more than a year ago, to get 1.9% more stuff.

    Unless your income is rising by 3.2% or more, that means you are seeing your real spending power squeezed*.

    * Yes, I know there are complications around tax and the like.

    Edit to add: household income is up a little less than 4% on a year-over-year basis, so that suggests (worryingly) that the savings rate continues to fall.
    The savings aspect is an almost inevitable consequence of ultra low interest rates.

    Disagree.

    Switzerland has a savings rate of 18.3% with negative interest rates, Germany has 9.7%, etc.
    What are you attributing it to, and why?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,350

    Mr. L, 23 centuries would at least encompass a full generation...

    If not quite Alastair Cook's career.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,018

    Mr. Urquhart, when my old walking boots (for dog walking) split, I had to find a different pair. Couldn't get the same ones.

    Men who enjoy shoe-shopping are deviants.

    Quite right Mr. D. I have three pairs of shoes, 1 highly polished black oxfords for weddings, funerals and formal occasions (don't get worn much these days), 1 slightly less polished and softer black oxfords for normal wear, 1 pair brown brogues for semi-formal events outside London. On top of which one pair decent walking boots and one pair Clarkes trekker sandals for walking in the summer. I have had the same combination for thirty years or more, indeed the shoes are at least ten years old though I had to replace the boots two years ago (the old pair finally fell apart beyond repair having been bought in the early eighties) and the sandals last year (the quality of Clarkes footwear has really gone downhill since they moved the manufacturing abroad).

    The same goes for clothing generally. I kept one suit, two or three formal shirts to wear with it other than that I have a few pairs of corduroys and jeans, a couple of pairs of shorts and a bunch of polo or other informal shirts and a few jumpers. I don't seem to need any more than that.

    I have kept my tie collection though. I don't know why but I find getting rid of a tie to be beyond my capabilities. Perhaps it's because too many memories are associated with each one.
    This is like the letters page of the People's Friend.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw My Facebook friends, alot of whom voted for Ed Miliband last time are having serious reservations regarding Corbyn.

    A lot of mine were sharing dawn butler interviews with the recurring comment being "f##king shambles".
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw My Facebook friends, alot of whom voted for Ed Miliband last time are having serious reservations regarding Corbyn.

    Are they going LibDemwards?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,228
    Scott_P said:

    Eeewwwwww

    @MrHarryCole: Had second old school Tory MP - in all seriousness - refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy" on the phone today. That's twice in a week.

    Not Andrea Leadsom I'd guess..
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956

    Pulpstar said:

    Btw My Facebook friends, alot of whom voted for Ed Miliband last time are having serious reservations regarding Corbyn.

    Are they going LibDemwards?
    Considering it, one waverer going to stick with Labour due to Farron's Newman interview though.
    *Le sigh*
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    One other thought struck me from listening to Farage last night - namely how important a politician's voice is. We all know looks matter but so does sound.

    Farage has, I never fully appreciated before, a lovely voice. Mellifluous. Listenable to. Welcoming. I don't agree with all he says but I like to hear him say it nonetheless.

    Blair's voice was clear, confident, articulate. Again, I didn't agree much of the time but I liked listening.
    Maggie - clipped, nasal and hectoring. But clear, controlling, powerful. Demanded attention and respect.
    Farron - very clear and articulate. Emanates intelligence and passion. Talks bollocks mostly but I want to hear it. A super voice. Unlike Clegg who always sounds whiney and petulant and dismissive and 'I know better than you'.
    May - Calm, measured, authoritative, enunciates, trustworthy. And slightly nervous... which is kind of endearing in the country's most powerful person. I think she's been having voice training. I like listening.
    Corbyn - Angry. Dimwitted. Breathy. Passionate. Energised. Mumbled quite often. Offputting somehow that I can't quite put my finger on. I want to switch off.
    Sturgeon - Har ye nae plook mar dookie the noo? Ya wee fucken numpti. Or something along those lines. It's not the soft Scottish of Morningside.

    May vs Corbyn on yesterday morning tv news pieces were striking. May doing her Merkel Mutti routine, calm what we need is stability, where as Corbyn was ranting like a Speaker's Corner nutter banging on about the end is nigh.

    I am sure Corbynistas thinks that demonstrates passion, he just sounded bloody bonkers.
    Indeed. I hear Labour ex-miners are asking for Tory posters in the NE. This would be funny if we weren't talking about our own democracy.
    Ex-miners asking for Tory posters sounds a bit far fetched. Maybe they are just running short of toilet paper.
    Patrick McLoughlin, the conservative party Chairman is a former miner
    Not a lot of people know this, but OGH used to be a minor.
    Well, we were all young once.
    Even Morris was a minor once...
    His Oxford days?
This discussion has been closed.