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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap election

With a snap general election announced, Leo Barasi is joined by Progress deputy editor Conor Pope, and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinski, to talk about the state of the parties and the race ahead. The Tories seem to be on course for a guaranteed landslide but does that mean they won’t be able to scare potential voters about a Corbyn government? What policies and arguments can Labour offer to fight back? How far can the Lib Dems go? And is it all gloom for Ukip?

Read the full story here

swing_voter

First, like the Greens in Brighton.........

MTimT

Second, unlike Labour, maybe ...

Robert_Of_Sheffield

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

MTimT

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

It seems he has no idea of the Greens' policies, either, if he thinks they will stop Corbyn from being too extreme.

philiph

MTimT said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

It seems he has no idea of the Greens' policies, either, if he thinks they will stop Corbyn from being too extreme.

That depends on his interpretation of extreme. There is a likelihood that he sees toryism as extreme and therefore the green position may be sensible.

One mans extreme is anothers normal

Robert_Of_Sheffield

MTimT said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

It seems he has no idea of the Greens' policies, either, if he thinks they will stop Corbyn from being too extreme.

Depends what you mean by extreme,. His main concern seemed to be a possible Blairite coup in the Labour party, resulting in a return to what he called 'Blair's extreme-right quasi-fascist policies'.

Note, this person isn't native to Sheffield, He lived in Rotherham until he was 18, went to university in Leeds, then lived in Doncaster for eight years before moving to Sheffield.

Pong

MTimT said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

It seems he has no idea of the Greens' policies, either, if he thinks they will stop Corbyn from being too extreme.

Yeah.

The greens are currently 75% Jeremy Corbyn, 25% John lennon.

Although interestingly, there was also (historically, at least) a conservative strand within the UK green movement. The anti-GM/anti-fracking/OMG climate change!/Prince Charlesy/Zac Goldsmithy types who have drifted away from the movement in recent years. Or maybe the movement has drifted away from them.

JosiasJessop

After reading the previous thread, I've come up with a great idea to raise money: add 100% tax to any meal that costs over £50 per person, excluding drinks.

It may stop posters embarrassing themselves with sentences like: "... but it was, even at £437 + service, good value."

SirNorfolkPassmore

Pong said:

Although interestingly, there was also (historically, at least) a conservative strand within the UK green movement. The anti-GM/anti-fracking/OMG climate change!/Prince Charlesy/Zac Goldsmithy types who have drifted away from the movement in recent years. Or maybe the movement has drifted away from them.

Their co-leader, Jonathan Bartley, was a Tory researcher for a while in the Major era. He's been on a bit of a journey, though, and also suspect likes being a bit of a contrarian and a big (well, medium) fish in a small pond.

SirNorfolkPassmore

JosiasJessop said:

After reading the previous thread, I've come up with a great idea to raise money: add 100% tax to any meal that costs over £50 per person, excluding drinks.

It may stop posters embarrassing themselves with sentences like: "... but it was, even at £437 + service, good value."

Surely it would just lead to posters embarrassing themselves with sentences like: "... but it was, even at £874 + service, good value"?

JosiasJessop

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

JosiasJessop said:

After reading the previous thread, I've come up with a great idea to raise money: add 100% tax to any meal that costs over £50 per person, excluding drinks.

It may stop posters embarrassing themselves with sentences like: "... but it was, even at £437 + service, good value."

Surely it would just lead to posters embarrassing themselves with sentences like: "... but it was, even at £874 + service, good value"?

Indeed. But at least the exchequer would be up by a few hundred quid, and we'd be able to have an even bigger laugh at their pomposity and lack of awareness.

OldKingCole

Totally O/T but just ;picking up on Ms Cyclefree’s post from last night (was ‘read only then). Not a nice experiencve at all, and I hope she makes a full recovery.
Best wishes.

OldKingCole

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

MTimT said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

Yesterday afternoon, I was talking to a fellow member of my chess club, here in Sheffield, who claimed he wanted to see a Labour-Green coalition government. This person said he liked Corbyn because he has good intentions, and coalition with the Greens would stop Corbyn doing anything too extreme.

This person also admitted he had no idea how our electoral system works. When I explained that the PM is usually the leader of the party which won the most seats he acted as though nobody had ever explained that to him before.

It seems he has no idea of the Greens' policies, either, if he thinks they will stop Corbyn from being too extreme.

Depends what you mean by extreme,. His main concern seemed to be a possible Blairite coup in the Labour party, resulting in a return to what he called 'Blair's extreme-right quasi-fascist policies'.

Note, this person isn't native to Sheffield, He lived in Rotherham until he was 18, went to university in Leeds, then lived in Doncaster for eight years before moving to Sheffield.

He is a Yorkshireman though. ‘Nuff said!

Roger

It's extaordinary that Labour doesn't have a USP on the biggest issue at this election.

I can't think what you might want out of Brexit where you would believe a vote for Labour would be the answer

Casino_Royale

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Roger

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855292515657895936

Black_Rook

Roger said:

It's extaordinary that Labour doesn't have a USP on the biggest issue at this election.

I can't think what you might want out of Brexit where you would believe a vote for Labour would be the answer

The Party of the 0% - although this, of course, is only one manifestation of their dire problems. And there's no particular reason to suppose that their VI numbers, which have been in continuous decline for over a year now, will magically start to improve now that the exposure of the public to Mr Corbyn (whom the vast majority of the public have long since decided is totally unsuitable for high office) will increase.

OldKingCole

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Looks as though Ben Howlett, the Tory, isn’t one of those implicated in the expenses problems, though.

Edit: FFS strikes again. Shall have to get a bigger keyboard!

RobD

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855292515657895936

Just look at that blue line.... someone pass the smelling salts!!

ydoethur

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Especially with articles like this floating around:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/

It actually urges Labour members not to vote Labour...

ToryJim

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Alistair

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855292515657895936

UKIP need May to spell out what Brexit means even more desperately than Labour.

They need a great betrayal narrative as soon as possible.

foxinsoxuk

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Quite a few very pro Remain Tories to choose from. One wonders whether internal resistance within the one party state is more effective than external.

Roger

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

foxinsoxuk

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855292515657895936

Just look at that blue line.... someone pass the smelling salts!!

The redline was not far off, until Jezza was put in charge.

Casino_Royale

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Won't save him.

foxinsoxuk

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

I agree, parties need to put their troops through their paces but generally campaigns just reinforce existing predjudices. Labours problem though may well be GOTV as much as switchers.

JosiasJessop

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

Outside the UK, perhaps the terrorist attack on Spanish trains in 2004?

Will last night's events have a similar effect in France (though the Spanish atrocity was on a massively larger scale) ?

IanB2

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

I agree, parties need to put their troops through their paces but generally campaigns just reinforce existing predjudices. Labours problem though may well be GOTV as much as switchers.

I think that's generally true. Back in 1983 however the latter period of the campaign was trending away from Labour as their campaign fell apart, and the Alliance moved towards crossover. In 2010 the LibDem vote trended upwards after the televised debate, arrested by some brutal work from the tabloids. So whilst campaigns generally make little difference, there are exceptions. The other difference this time is that we're talking about an effective seven week campaign, longer than usual.

Casino_Royale

foxinsoxuk said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Quite a few very pro Remain Tories to choose from. One wonders whether internal resistance within the one party state is more effective than external.

This matters far less than the politically engaged think, least of all the MPs themselves.

The fact that they might see themselves as different to their brethren makes precious little difference to the average voter, who just sees a party label and most probably won't even know his positions on most issues. Or care.

Bob Marshall-Andrews opposition to Tony Blair didn't help him in 2005 (when he almost lost, and thought he had) nor did Chris Patten's wet type Toryism in 1992.. in Bath.

A small personal vote can be accumulated, yes. But for the two main parties their fortunes largely rise and fall on those of the national picture.

Bet accordingly.

OldKingCole

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

IIRC there was a black swan in 1970, but I can’t recall what it was. I think Feb 74 wasn’t what what was initially expected, either.
Long time ago, of course.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Won't save him.

Unless he defects?

murali_s

The only black swan event that can save Labour is if Corbyn resigns/drops dead. Even the Tory election expenses/fraud scandal will hardly change things.

foxinsoxuk

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Quite a few very pro Remain Tories to choose from. One wonders whether internal resistance within the one party state is more effective than external.

This matters far less than the politically engaged think, least of all the MPs themselves.

The fact that they might see themselves as different to their brethren makes precious little difference to the average voter, who just sees a party label and most probably won't even know his positions on most issues. Or care.

Bob Marshall-Andrews opposition to Tony Blair didn't help him in 2005 (when he almost lost, and thought he had) nor did Chris Patten's wet type Toryism in 1992.. in Bath.

A small personal vote can be accumulated, yes. But for the two main parties their fortunes largely rise and fall on those of the national picture.

Bet accordingly.

I agree, personal votes are mostly a myth with national swings tempered by local demographics being the best predictor.

What I was getting at was whether Mrs May is more needled by Nicky Morgan than by an opposition backbencher?

ydoethur

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

More common is a party blaming their defeat on something in the campaign to hide the fact that it was due to their general uselessness: e.g. Labour blaming unemployment figures in 1970, the Tories blaming Churchill's Gestapo broadcast in 1945.

The last truly black swan event in a campaign was probably in 1924 with the Zinoviev letter - but it's to say the least doubtful that Labour would have won without it, although the Liberals might have done better than 40 seats.

IanB2

I wonder how hard the Tories will actually go on Corbyn? Surely they have a brutal campaign mapped out, with one attack story after another. But there must be a point where destroying the Labour Party, despite being the right thing for the country, becomes the wrong thing for the Tory Party, which has always thrived off having an opponent designed so perfectly in the Conservatives' self-interest?

AlastairMeeks

Wildly off topic but:

1) Adam Johnson is exceptionally hard done by in the Sun this morning. When you see what he said in proper context, he is expressing a view on his sentence, not planning schoolgirl rapes. He clearly doesn't think he's done much wrong, but then 30 years ago his view would have been widely shared. He's right to think he's been made an example of because he's famous (but wrong to think that's unfair).

2) Did the Sun pay anyone for a video that was clearly illegally obtained and if so, who?

CarlottaVance

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

Alistair

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

Why do we tolerate capitalists in our midst? Deport the lot of them.

ydoethur

murali_s said:

The only black swan event that can save Labour is if Corbyn resigns/drops dead. Even the Tory election expenses/fraud scandal will hardly change things.

He isn't going to resign.

In fact, he's already leaking to the press that he'll stay on if (when) Labour lose.

I am starting to think the only way he can be removed is if he either suffers from a fatal seizure or if he loses his seat. The latter is starting to look almost possible.

dr_spyn

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

IIRC there was a black swan in 1970, but I can’t recall what it was. I think Feb 74 wasn’t what what was initially expected, either.
Long time ago, of course.

Wasn't it adverse trade figures?

Re Greens, they have been mulling over VAT on meat.

https://southwest.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/02/21/greens-launch-radical-ideas-for-agriculture-post-brexit/

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Won't save him.

Unless he defects?

Possibly, but he is a Tory loyalist on the Left of the party (bit like TSE) so I doubt it.

eek

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

Just goes to show truth is always stranger than fiction.

Roger

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Especially with articles like this floating around:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/

It actually urges Labour members not to vote Labour...

And that's from Labour Uncut! Poor Jeremy! I remember that old Somerset folk singer used to try it every time to get rid of Thatcher. It was never very successful. He'd print the name of the candidate who had the best chance of beating her. Maybe this time with a single issue and the formidable Gina Miller behind it it'll get some traction.

Casino_Royale

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Quite a few very pro Remain Tories to choose from. One wonders whether internal resistance within the one party state is more effective than external.

This matters far less than the politically engaged think, least of all the MPs themselves.

The fact that they might see themselves as different to their brethren makes precious little difference to the average voter, who just sees a party label and most probably won't even know his positions on most issues. Or care.

Bob Marshall-Andrews opposition to Tony Blair didn't help him in 2005 (when he almost lost, and thought he had) nor did Chris Patten's wet type Toryism in 1992.. in Bath.

A small personal vote can be accumulated, yes. But for the two main parties their fortunes largely rise and fall on those of the national picture.

Bet accordingly.

I agree, personal votes are mostly a myth with national swings tempered by local demographics being the best predictor.

What I was getting at was whether Mrs May is more needled by Nicky Morgan than by an opposition backbencher?

I think she has very little time for Nicky Morgan, and it's mutual.

foxinsoxuk

dr_spyn said:

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

IIRC there was a black swan in 1970, but I can’t recall what it was. I think Feb 74 wasn’t what what was initially expected, either.
Long time ago, of course.

Wasn't it adverse trade figures?

Re Greens, they have been mulling over VAT on meat.

https://southwest.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/02/21/greens-launch-radical-ideas-for-agriculture-post-brexit/

England losing in the World Cup?

CarlottaVance

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

IIRC there was a black swan in 1970, but I can’t recall what it was.

Wasn't it sudden last minute bad trade figures (in the days when those mattered) later attributed to the delivery of a couple of BOAC 747s? Or possibly that's an urban myth....

Alistair

eek said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

Just goes to show truth is always stranger than fiction.

Why won't so called "moderate" stock brokers speak out against him?

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Especially with articles like this floating around:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/

It actually urges Labour members not to vote Labour...

the formidable Gina Miller

Not so formidable with Brillo last night, according to reports.....

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ToryJim said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Incumbent Tory MP is practically a Lib Dem already.

Quite a few very pro Remain Tories to choose from. One wonders whether internal resistance within the one party state is more effective than external.

This matters far less than the politically engaged think, least of all the MPs themselves.

The fact that they might see themselves as different to their brethren makes precious little difference to the average voter, who just sees a party label and most probably won't even know his positions on most issues. Or care.

Bob Marshall-Andrews opposition to Tony Blair didn't help him in 2005 (when he almost lost, and thought he had) nor did Chris Patten's wet type Toryism in 1992.. in Bath.

A small personal vote can be accumulated, yes. But for the two main parties their fortunes largely rise and fall on those of the national picture.

Bet accordingly.

I agree, personal votes are mostly a myth with national swings tempered by local demographics being the best predictor.

What I was getting at was whether Mrs May is more needled by Nicky Morgan than by an opposition backbencher?

I think she has very little time for Nicky Morgan, and it's mutual.

Almost thou persuadest me to like Theresa May

SouthamObserver

eek said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

Just goes to show truth is always stranger than fiction.

And that rushing to conclusions is not a good idea.

ydoethur

And of course the mother and father of false black swans was the famous Sheffield Rally of 1992. Made bugger all difference to the result but allowed Labour to feel they had been robbed for the next five years.

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

I see it as a virulent form of fundamentalist stock brokerism that has no place in modern society.

not_on_fire

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

I see it as a virulent form of fundamentalist stock brokerism that has no place in modern society.

Why aren't moderate stockbrokers taking to the streets in protest? I detect a MSM conspiracy to blame it on "mental wealth"

dr_spyn

@Foxinsoxuk

BBC take on 1970 election.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/basics/4393297.stm

Jumbo delivery.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/22/newsid_3725000/3725963.stm

Perhaps @JackW might know the real answer.

YBarddCwsc

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

More common, I think, is that circumstances & events reinforce an existing narrative, magnifying the effect.

There was already the whiff of Tory sleaze in 1997, but the re-adoption of Hamilton as a candidate in Tatton, the very public splits in the Tatton Conservative Party & the panic and dismay from Conservative Central Office fed into the narrative (and was of course cleverly used by Alistair Campbell). I suspect Hamilton alone cost the Tories an additional 25 seats.

I suspect that -- if anything now occurs in the campaign -- it will be the complete collapse of whatever residual Labour coherence and unity there is.

If this was a boxing match, the referee would already have stopped the fight.

SouthamObserver

Roger said:

It's extaordinary that Labour doesn't have a USP on the biggest issue at this election.

I can't think what you might want out of Brexit where you would believe a vote for Labour would be the answer

The voters' judgement on Corbyn Labour is something I am looking forward to seeing. The only downside is that it will deliver long years of numbing mediocrity in government.

tlg86

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

The saintly 51% rule in tatters?

ydoethur

With 1970, because the result was very unexpected people (especially Labour) groped for any possible explanation of why they were hammered: bad economic news, the World Cup, bad weather etc. Actually there is a much more tenable case that it was won by the sophisticated long-term campaign operation Heath had been running since 1966, targeting key voters in swing seats, and the polls had simply failed to sample these properly. Heath had been confident of victory from the off even as manoeuvres went on to replace him.

Still a remarkable result, and quite an achievement by Heath to overturn a majority of that size and get one of his own - one beyond any other PM in the twentieth century. If only he'd shown the same clarity of purpose and decision as PM.

Alistair

not_on_fire said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

I see it as a virulent form of fundamentalist stock brokerism that has no place in modern society.

Why aren't moderate stockbrokers taking to the streets in protest? I detect a MSM conspiracy to blame it on "mental wealth"

Why won't they tell us what brand of credit card he has?

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

Roger said:

I've just listened to the podcast. Someone at the end said there's always the possibility of someting really unexpected happening in the campaign which could turn everything round....

......I remember William Hague after he'd just been hammered in 2001 saying general election campaigns hardly ever make a difference to the result. The final result closely match the the polls at the start.

Obviously in his case it was a mea non culpa for the 14 pints the baseball cap and the XXX to save the pound.... but he's right. I can't think of one event which has changed an election result since I started voting.

More common, I think, is that circumstances & events reinforce an existing narrative, magnifying the effect.

There was already the whiff of Tory sleaze in 1997, but the re-adoption of Hamilton as a candidate in Tatton, the very public splits in the Tatton Conservative Party & the panic and dismay from Conservative Central Office fed into the narrative (and was of course cleverly used by Alistair Campbell). I suspect Hamilton alone cost the Tories an additional 25 seats.

I suspect that -- if anything now occurs in the campaign -- it will be the complete collapse of whatever residual Labour coherence and unity there is.

If this was a boxing match, the referee would already have stopped the fight.

They are turning into the political equivalent of Aston Villa's last season in the Premiership.

CD13

Mr S,

Jezza dropping dead is slightly more likely than him resigning. And it may attract a small sympathy vote. Sounds like a good plot for a who-dunnit. Which member of the Labour party did the deed?

For a twist, you make it a Conservative - who'd have no motive.

SquareRoot

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

It's extaordinary that Labour doesn't have a USP on the biggest issue at this election.

I can't think what you might want out of Brexit where you would believe a vote for Labour would be the answer

The voters' judgement on Corbyn Labour is something I am looking forward to seeing. The only downside is that it will deliver long years of numbing mediocrity in government.

it depends how badly Labour lose

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

With 1970, because the result was very unexpected people (especially Labour) groped for any possible explanation of why they were hammered: bad economic news, the World Cup, bad weather etc. Actually there is a much more tenable case that it was won by the sophisticated long-term campaign operation Heath had been running since 1966, targeting key voters in swing seats, and the polls had simply failed to sample these properly. Heath had been confident of victory from the off even as manoeuvres went on to replace him.

Still a remarkable result, and quite an achievement by Heath to overturn a majority of that size and get one of his own - one beyond any other PM in the twentieth century. If only he'd shown the same clarity of purpose and decision as PM.

Heath was famously not a people person, and seemed to hardly disguise his dislike of Joe Public, but really had modernised the Tory grass roots.

The first election that I recall was 1974 though.

swing_voter

what happens to the bets on Gorton - ie money on a Labour hold - will they still apply?

numbertwelve

ydoethur said:

And of course the mother and father of false black swans was the famous Sheffield Rally of 1992. Made bugger all difference to the result but allowed Labour to feel they had been robbed for the next five years.

The Edstone, too, as much as it is a brilliant case of a campaign cock-up.

What are people's views on Brown and Mrs Duffy? I always thought that could have cost Labour dear, though even without that I think they would have headed for a similar result.

ydoethur

CD13 said:

Mr S,

Jezza dropping dead is slightly more likely than him resigning. And it may attract a small sympathy vote. Sounds like a good plot for a who-dunnit. Which member of the Labour party did the deed?

For a twist, you make it a Conservative - who'd have no motive.

No motive? They have an absolute need to keep him alive and healthy for another 8 weeks! Their motive is all the other way.

If he had a cold right now, Theresa May would cheerfully pay for his medication to get him back on the stump touring the Labour marginals as soon as possible, making sure they are turned into safe Conservative seats.

Fangsy

swing_voter said:

what happens to the bets on Gorton - ie money on a Labour hold - will they still apply?

Most - if not all - seem to have been voided by the various firms

not_on_fire

Alistair said:

not_on_fire said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

I see it as a virulent form of fundamentalist stock brokerism that has no place in modern society.

Why aren't moderate stockbrokers taking to the streets in protest? I detect a MSM conspiracy to blame it on "mental wealth"

Why won't they tell us what brand of credit card he has?

Fear of being seen as Visaphobic?

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

Wildly off topic but:

1) Adam Johnson is exceptionally hard done by in the Sun this morning. When you see what he said in proper context, he is expressing a view on his sentence, not planning schoolgirl rapes. He clearly doesn't think he's done much wrong, but then 30 years ago his view would have been widely shared. He's right to think he's been made an example of because he's famous (but wrong to think that's unfair).

2) Did the Sun pay anyone for a video that was clearly illegally obtained and if so, who?

On point 1 - It is the normal tabloid nonsense.

Point 2 - That is a very interesting and good point. The Sun could be in real shit over that one.

ydoethur

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

And of course the mother and father of false black swans was the famous Sheffield Rally of 1992. Made bugger all difference to the result but allowed Labour to feel they had been robbed for the next five years.

The Edstone, too, as much as it is a brilliant case of a campaign cock-up.

What are people's views on Brown and Mrs Duffy? I always thought that could have cost Labour dear, though even without that I think they would have headed for a similar result.

Would have thought it more likely it shored up his vote with wavering liberals in the South, frankly.

Which is not a nice thing to say but probably accurate.

Beverley_C

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Especially with articles like this floating around:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/

It actually urges Labour members not to vote Labour...

It urges lots of things but mainly "Do not vote for Corbyn".

I liked the exhortation for existing MPs to declare as independents. If lots ofcthem did so it could be the beginning of SDP Mk.2 as after the election they club together.

The assessment of Corbyn and his acolytes seems to be accurate to me based on their behaviour and utterances to date. Anyone betting based on Corbyn resigning might be well advised to read it

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

Wildly off topic but:

1) Adam Johnson is exceptionally hard done by in the Sun this morning. When you see what he said in proper context, he is expressing a view on his sentence, not planning schoolgirl rapes. He clearly doesn't think he's done much wrong, but then 30 years ago his view would have been widely shared. He's right to think he's been made an example of because he's famous (but wrong to think that's unfair).

2) Did the Sun pay anyone for a video that was clearly illegally obtained and if so, who?

I wouldn't say "exceptionally hard done by", but I think he was joking when he said he wish he had raped her. I think my problem with making an example of people like him is that it creates the false impression that we are tough on such crimes.

foxinsoxuk

not_on_fire said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

A stockbroker prepared to go to any lengths to help his clients. That's service.

I see it as a virulent form of fundamentalist stock brokerism that has no place in modern society.

Why aren't moderate stockbrokers taking to the streets in protest? I detect a MSM conspiracy to blame it on "mental wealth"

Usually they restrict themselves to blowing up economies...

IanB2

swing_voter said:

what happens to the bets on Gorton - ie money on a Labour hold - will they still apply?

Anyone sitting on a small profit from backing the LibDems as perceptions of their chances improved can always cash out.

CarlottaVance

The 'formidable' Gina Miller:

https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/855194338904625152

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Very sad to hear of the latest terrorist attack in Paris overnight. I hope we don't see more on polling day.

Robert_Of_Sheffield

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

And of course the mother and father of false black swans was the famous Sheffield Rally of 1992. Made bugger all difference to the result but allowed Labour to feel they had been robbed for the next five years.

The Edstone, too, as much as it is a brilliant case of a campaign cock-up.

What are people's views on Brown and Mrs Duffy? I always thought that could have cost Labour dear, though even without that I think they would have headed for a similar result.

Imagine if, hypothetically, when Brown went round to her house to apologise she'd had a fatal heart attack while alone with him. I'm pretty sure that Brown apparently frightening an old lady to death would have cost him quite a few votes, but I doubt that anything much less would have.

Roger

Alistair said:

eek said:

SeanT said:

Bizarre twist in the Dortmund bombing case. NOT far left. NOT far right. NOT Islamist. Just some guy trying to boost his portfolio. I kid you not. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot

Just goes to show truth is always stranger than fiction.

Why won't so called "moderate" stock brokers speak out against him?

Jeremy would like it to be known he has no truck with Stockbrokers nor has he knowingly attended any event at which Stockbrokers have been present

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

Worth another 10% for "Leave".

YBarddCwsc

Beverley_C said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Backing the LDs in Bath at 7/4 seems a steal.

The Tories only have 37%, and less than a 4,000 majority over them, the UKIP residual vote is tiny, and there's a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze.

Plus, I expect a chunk of the existing Tory vote is quite soft anyway, and rather Remainy. Bath and North East Somerset voted Remain by 57.8%

DYOR.

Manchester Withington at 6/1 seems an even bigger steal.

Especially with articles like this floating around:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/

It actually urges Labour members not to vote Labour...

It urges lots of things but mainly "Do not vote for Corbyn".

I liked the exhortation for existing MPs to declare as independents. If lots ofcthem did so it could be the beginning of SDP Mk.2 as after the election they club together.

But the existing MPs don't want the SDP Mk2. They want their old party back again.

And, to be fair, it is still way easier to re-invigorate the Labour brand than to start a new party. Even now, Labour will still poll ~ 25 per cent.

If I was an existing Labour MP with a majority of < 6000, I'd be helping in the neighbouring constituency where the majority > 6000.

And if I was an MP with a majority of > 6000, I'd be keeping my head down and working the constituency 24/7.

There is no way I'd be faffing about being an independent or an SDP Mk2 (which would simply destroy my chances of holding my seat).

TheScreamingEagles

The greatest tweet so far of the campaign.

https://twitter.com/WarmongerHodges/status/855126241460072449

foxinsoxuk

IanB2 said:

swing_voter said:

what happens to the bets on Gorton - ie money on a Labour hold - will they still apply?

Anyone sitting on a small profit from backing the LibDems as perceptions of their chances improved can always cash out.

IanB2 said:

swing_voter said:

what happens to the bets on Gorton - ie money on a Labour hold - will they still apply?

Anyone sitting on a small profit from backing the LibDems as perceptions of their chances improved can always cash out.

I got a couple of quid on at 33/1 for the LDs yesterday on BF Sportsbook before it disappeared. It was trading at 6 in the byelection market.

Casino_Royale

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

I suspect there's more to that story than meets the eye.

The UK is never (and can't) accept parallel systems of laws for people residing in its territory.

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

Worth another 10% for "Leave".

Hard Brexit increasingly nailed on. It is why May wants a big majority.

Take a look at @TheNewEuropean's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/855307541105876994?s=09

SimonStClare

CarlottaVance said:

The 'formidable' Gina Miller:

https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/855194338904625152

Love the way Brillo calmly strips away the veneers Miller uses, to expose the angry Remainer.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

I suspect there's more to that story than meets the eye.

The UK is never (and can't) accept parallel systems of laws for people residing in its territory.

Oh really? We have different legal systems operating here.

You could argue with English & Welsh law v Scottish law, or the Jewish courts too.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, The New European is pro-EU propaganda. It treats the EU the way the Express treated Diana.

Mr. Royale, it's either a bargaining position, there's more to it (as you say), or the EU is off its head/doesn't want a deal.

Mr. Eagles, yeah. He really invigorated a rapid change in the political establishment in Copeland.

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

Worth another 10% for "Leave".

Hard Brexit increasingly nailed on. It is why May wants a big majority.

Take a look at @TheNewEuropean's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/855307541105876994?s=09

That is a really shockingly tasteless front cover. Charlie Hebdo only nastier.

And I speak as a Remainer.

danielmawbs

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Very sad to hear of the latest terrorist attack in Paris overnight. I hope we don't see more on polling day.

Wandering around Paris this morning, you'd never know it happened. I'm not sure if that's comforting or not?

kle4

ydoethur said:

murali_s said:

The only black swan event that can save Labour is if Corbyn resigns/drops dead. Even the Tory election expenses/fraud scandal will hardly change things.

He isn't going to resign.

In fact, he's already leaking to the press that he'll stay on if (when) Labour lose.

I am starting to think the only way he can be removed is if he either suffers from a fatal seizure or if he loses his seat. The latter is starting to look almost possible.

People say they'll stay on and then the event happens and they leave. It's talk.

foxinsoxuk

An interesting list of Tory MPs in the expenses row:

What happens if Soubry is disqualified in Broxtowe?

https://twitter.com/thefoodumbrella/status/854741196375248896

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't advise using that line if you're doing any doorknocking during the campaign...

Roger

CD13 said:

Mr S,

Jezza dropping dead is slightly more likely than him resigning. And it may attract a small sympathy vote. Sounds like a good plot for a who-dunnit. Which member of the Labour party did the deed?

For a twist, you make it a Conservative - who'd have no motive.

That's funny!

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

I suspect there's more to that story than meets the eye.

The UK is never (and can't) accept parallel systems of laws for people residing in its territory.

Oh really? We have different legal systems operating here.

You could argue with English & Welsh law v Scottish law, or the Jewish courts too.

Yes, but if I as an Englishman go to Scotland, I have to obey their law. Jewish courts, the Football Association etc rule on their own domains, though we sometimes have issues (e.g. John Terry being found not guilty in a court of law but still convicted by the FA).

I don't know how the state could have one law for one person and one law for another.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Houston, we have a problem:

Leaked European Commission negotiating guidelines reveal that the EU is demanding that Mrs May indefinitely submit to rulings by the ECJ on the pensions, employment and welfare rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-told-to-keep-eu-laws-pwphnqxn0?

So, the Uk would have two sets of laws running in parallel - one for UK citizens, one for EU citizens.

The ECJ says 'State Pension starts at 50' and European Citizens in the UK start their pensions at 50, while UK Citizens work to 70 or older to pay for it.......

And they think we'll agree to this because?

I suspect there's more to that story than meets the eye.

The UK is never (and can't) accept parallel systems of laws for people residing in its territory.

Oh really? We have different legal systems operating here.

You could argue with English & Welsh law v Scottish law, or the Jewish courts too.

Supposing they wanted to use English (let's stick to that for the moment) rather than European law? Bearing in mind a lot of the time it is actually simpler, quicker and fairer than European equivalents. What then?

Or do we have something like the situation in the OPT where they have to use a different judicial system whether they like it or not?

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

An interesting list of Tory MPs in the expenses row:

What happens if Soubry is disqualified in Broxtowe?

twitter.com/thefoodumbrella/status/854741196375248896

They won't be MPs for long...

SquareRoot

SimonStClare said:

CarlottaVance said:

The 'formidable' Gina Miller:

https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/855194338904625152

Love the way Brillo calmly strips away the veneers Miller uses, to expose the angry Remainer.

birdbrain.