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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II
This week YouGov released some fascinating polling on Theresa May and her popularity. As we can see from the above chart it helps explains why Mrs May has such a colossal lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best Prime Minister and why if Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader at the next general election, the 2020 general election is going to be the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar war.
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May and her Tories can get away with being the blank canvas onto which everyone can paint their own individual vision of what Brexit looks like. That won't last; sooner or later she'll have to paint the picture, and inevitably there will be some who won't like it. That's when the local progress being made by the LibDems starts to translate into national ratings.
Three mighty "if's" in that paragraph, all evidently necessary to deny the Conservatives a majority. What is needed to provide Labour with one?
No, I think her popularity is down to not being David Cameron or George Osborne.
...if Labour do come to their senses and replace the electoral liability that is Jeremy Corbyn with someone more popular & competent...
Who is this person? Don't forget, before Corbynism swept the nation the Labour Party, the other contenders for the leadership weren't exactly stellar performers.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/06/revitalised-labour-post-brexit-vision-homelessness-poverty-inequality
Perhaps she also favours fluffy kittens, but the contrast in style with May would be marked.
Philips is the genuine article, a brash working class Brummy with a waspish wit, she would be great on the front bench against some pompous stuffed shirt. A good campaigner too.
Of course that could end up being an advantage, depending on how things play out.
F1: wrote most of the pre-race article yesterday but was waiting for the markets. Will check them shortly and hopefully have it posted for your perusal today. In the meantime, there are literally some comments with betting ideas in the pre-qualifying article, and I did tip backing Vettel at 5 and hedging at evens yesterday:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying-2017.html
Also, Happy Zombie Jesus Day, everyone.
Nice of Mr Eagles to write a fantasy paean to the Posh Boys.
I'd exchange a handful of ex LD seats for the swathes of Midland and elsewhere Labour/Tory marginals that are going to fall at the next election anyday.....
I think the "May could be the next Gordon Brown" comparison ignores the specifics of the one-off awfulness of Gordon Brown. The sociopathic quality of his narcissism, deceit, and self-delusion.
May will be "found out" in various ways in the years to come. Any PM is, as there is no hiding place. She may possibly end her political career with a poor reputation. But she will not be the next Gordon Brown.
That was a very strange set of policies in the FPT polling.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/853292286804983808
Will any of those actually raise any cash?
1 is "ono we gotta position ourselves beyond the Tories", placing us pretty much at the top of the European minimum wage table. Effect on youth unemployment?
2 might raise a couple of hundred million. Maybe.
3 is an attack on aspiration / diversity, and if it forces some pupils out of the indy school sector will cost an nideterminate amount of money.
4 looks set to catch higher interest rates.
Strange man. Lots of signalling and no one watching.
I remain perplexed by why the markets aren't up yet.
Edited extra bit: on the other hand, I'm still quite sleepy, so perhaps it isn't an entirely bad thing.
Especially when the race is very hard to predict.
What surprised me is the stat on decisiveness as I'd say she's anything but.
Brown is a shit of epic proportions, your belief in him is delusional.
Sorry.
https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/853518558877425665
https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
Do you mean lifelong Socialists who were marginalised by Labours drift right from its roots.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170410-how-to-fool-artificial-intelligence
It is why the term machine learning is a more accurate terminology for a lot of this tech as there is very little of what most people would think of as intelligence.
It is quite conceivable (though clearly not inevitable) that the Brexit negotiations go all scorched earth on both sides, to everyone's disbenefit. A similar legacy to the Brownian decade's misery would leave her regarded somewhere around Brown levels.
Your views of Brown's character, with which I have some sympathy, are irrelevant to this and its effect on her reputation. After all, she is something of a blank slate still, on which it would be easy to paint an ugly picture.
Lots of ifs, buts and maybes in that article. On balance I say there’s more potential for TSE to become Don Brind Mark II.
The Labour of Clem wouldn't have had any truck with Trots. Not least because they were much brighter and sharper...
- If Theresa May does well/badly as PM, she'll be remembered as a good/bad PM.
- Her chances of success are contingent on Labour's leader.
Which is not to say there isn't some interesting stuff in there anyway.
The real nonsense about AIs is talked by that ineffably silly Bostrom man who thinks the universe is going to be destroyed by AIs in the grip of "perverse instantiation": you have a paperclip factory, you buy an AI and make it CEO, it oversteps its brief and transforms all the matter in the universe into paperclips. This looks like a realistic idea for about 3 seconds till you realise the number of reasons why it won't happen. For starters, the thing is by definition intelligent, so you give it the instruction "don't do any of that perverse instantiation shit" and it understands because it's intelligent, and obeys because it's a computer. And you write its objectives a bit more intelligently than "make paperclips" to say e.g. maximise happiness for the employees and shareholders of Paperclipco, and being as how it's intelligent it realises that paperclips need customers for whom someone has to make paper for paperclips to be useful, and shareholders won't be happy if they themselves have been paperclipized. Plus if you read enough science fiction in your teenage years you know to program it at an unhackable level with the 3 Laws of Robotics. Silly man.
Happy Easter.
https://twitter.com/Theuniondivvie/status/853512154279968768
I guess the 48ers will have to change their name...
Of course had Brown taken over 6 years into a Labour government and replaced Blair over Iraq as May replaced Cameron 6 years into a Tory government over Brexit he would have comfortably led IDS and beaten Howard in 2005 and probably had a better reputation, much as May comfortably leads Corbyn and will almost certainly beat Labour in 2020 whoever leads them
https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/852055843164082176
Agree that it's not an easy call, as making a good start (which is something of a lottery at the best of times) is of oversized importance here. A long run to the first turn means a bad start can get you swallowed by the following pack.
While it's quite possible to overtake, it's not the easiest track to do so, and tyre wear might be critical, as Pirelli say a one-stop race is marginal.
All this gives Bottas an excellent chance for his first win IF he starts well.
Like you, I'll look for value, as a lot of different outcomes are possible.
I suspect when somebody says x or y is talented they really mean they agree with them.
A few more markets (not all) are up on Ladbrokes. Betfair's 3.6 on Hamilton to lead lap 1 is something I'm considering.
Trump is a twat. Putin is shrewd.
I don't think the Optometrist and his fragrant wife are evil. Certainly he had nothing to do with the latest chemical attack, just like the others - there hasn't even been a pretense of an enquiry for that reason.
Only the young and impressionable are left clinging to the raft.
Also a Vettel blinder is not impossible, though Mercedes seem less prone to poor getaways this year.
It's really well set up for the race but damned hard to try and bet on. I may well end up sticking with the one tip.
Not to mention Sainz's car looks very fast but also fragile.
I think the best result would be if Ladbrokes actually paid out on the Giovinazzi not to be classified bet, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens
Edited extra bit: weirdly, that's still available at evens. 99% to be rendered null and void, of course.
Surprisingly, Jabhat Al Nusra, son of Al Qaeda, gets a pass every time.
Most socialists are young and ideological, as they get older they change their minds.
Of course I'm happy to hear examples of a prosperous, peaceful, happy socialist state.
And that is what the Osborne cheerleaders are bitter about.
It should be remembered that Cameron and Osborne lost the 2016 local elections to Corbyn:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016
Beaten by Jeremy Corbyn - how crap is that !!!
It was all the fault of the Labour Party !
Has anyone seen this mystery polling which is contradicted by the opinion polls ?
Of course there's no reason why a LibDem revival wouldn't have occurred if Cameron was still PM - in fact judging by the 2016 local elections it had already happened while Cameron was PM.
Though I suspect Brown was already bitter and twisted with Blair for getting the leadership in 1995.
I wonder how history would have been different if Brown had challenged John Smith for the leadership in 1992. He would have lost but would have been confirmed as the natural successor to John Smith and would have had a good chance of becoming leader upon his death.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-pre-race-2017.html
For a while this was fine for the government as the profits pushed up the tax take allowing brown to spend even more.
But these distortions can last long term, and it didn't, the man who clamed to have abolished 'boom and bust' brought started the biggest bust in 80 years.
And government don't 'save the economy', the next generation of taxpayers, have been en-debt, to cover up the mistakes of the past.