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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Terrible night for UKIP in latest locals losing the two seats

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hm, and if those planes are Russian?
    Also, when they say UK Navy they mean US Navy, right? Do we even have such a capability? I thought our armed forces was basically a core of very good men (and some women), some very expensive equipment white elephants, and a handful of other stuff?

    But if contingent on a resolution it's a non starter anyway, clearly the Russians would never agree to that. Gaddafi only found himself on the end of one because he had no international friends.
    The ASRAAM's a decent piece of kit.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASRAAM

    What you say about our armed forces applies even more so to the Russians. They're operating much of their kit on string and sealing wax.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris :

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 18%

    If Hamon drops out, it could be very interesting. I bet Melenchon is getting some WWC votes from Le Pen.
    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris :

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 18%

    If Hamon drops out, it could be very interesting. I bet Melenchon is getting some WWC votes from Le Pen.
    How would PB POTFR punters price up a Melenchon/Le Pen run off?
    Or, even Macron vs Melenchon ? Which way would Le Pen supporters go ? Some will stay at home. Macron will win easily though.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Interestingly Swedish security expert they had when asked if the authorities or the public were ready for a terrorist attack replied that the general perception is that it shouldn't happen to us.

    Oh dear....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    This Question Time clanger from Diane Abbott has been overlooked: she killed-off the asylum seeker who is recovering in hospital after being attacked in Croydon. Abbott said:

    “In the months after the Brexit vote we had a 41% rise in race hate. We saw that terrible killing of that Kurdish boy in Croydon”

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/07/diane-abbott-on-top-of-her-brief-as-usual/
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    It seems to me dangerous to view serious issues in terms of whose "side" your view puts you on, as some have on this thread. It's not like picking sides in primary school football.

    Trump may be right end of the debate on this one for the wrong (or even for the right) reason. I won't disagree him merely because I think him a poor President (although I do). Ditto Putin, Corbyn, Farron,, Farage, Katie Hopkins, or whoever else you care to name.

    My personal view is that Assad's future as Syrian leader is now assured. The ship of moderate opposition has sailed, and the prospect of ISIS domination is even worse than Assad/Russia. But limited strikes may have a role in dissuading Assad from further use of chemical weapons agains t innocent civilians (and I think it very likely he did this recently, if not 100% certain).

    There is room for reasonable people to disagree on reasonable grounds. It doesn't in itself make them an Assad apologist, a Putin lapdog, or anything else.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Scott_P said:
    They must be dreaming if they think we could organise and run anything like that.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    GIN1138 said:

    So, just to make sure I've got this right, we have:

    In favour:
    Uk, France, Germany, EU

    Against:
    Putin, Corbyn, SNP, Farage, Banks, Hopkins, Coulter.....

    PLP = 50/50 or phone a friend? ;)
    Does EU support imply the support of the four neutral EU countries? My guess is that Sweden, Ireland, Austria and Finland wouldn't dream of supporting an attack on another sovereign state without lawful authority. That means a UN resolution.
    Donald Tusk has expressed support from the EU for the actions.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    So, just to make sure I've got this right, we have:

    In favour:
    Uk, France, Germany, EU

    Against:
    Putin, Corbyn, SNP, Farage, Banks, Hopkins, Coulter.....

    In favour :
    ISIS

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/04/07/heres-how-isis-used-the-us-military-strike-to-its-advantage-6559333/


    Jabhat al-Nusra are keeping a low profile. It is in their interest to drag the US in.
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    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris :

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 18%

    If Hamon drops out, it could be very interesting. I bet Melenchon is getting some WWC votes from Le Pen.
    How would PB POTFR punters price up a Melenchon/Le Pen run off?
    Or, even Macron vs Melenchon ? Which way would Le Pen supporters go ? Some will stay at home. Macron will win easily though.
    I'd think Macron/Melenchon more likely if Hamon dropped out, as you suggest. Plenty of Hamon's colleagues have already broken for Macron, so there would seem to be plenty for him to gain from Hamon leaving, and little for Le Pen.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pong said:

    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?

    Le Pen mild favourite, something like 4/6.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Mr. Urquhart, about as accurate as anything uttered by Abbott.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    The Swedish police are very odd....they are putting out statements they haven't arrested anybody while the media are putting out pictures of them...erhhh..arresting people.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    I do not know if Bannon's removal from the NSC has been covered here or not. Since the chemical attack incident took place on Tuesday and he was removed on Wednesday, I am beginning to think the two are linked.

    Could it be the Military insisted that they would not discuss sensitive operational matters in his presence ? I cannot understand why should such a "trusted" advisor would be removed suddenly just before such an important decision.

    I believe he was removed before the attack took place.
    I am not so sure. The attack took place on the 4th. Bannon was removed on the 5th. Okay, the machinations may have started before the 4th.

    It still does not answer the question: why was he removed ? Is Trump now becoming a "normal" President ?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    The Swedish police are very odd....they are putting out statements they haven't arrested anybody while the media are putting out pictures of them...erhhh..arresting people.

    Is it a terminological/translation thing? The difference between being 'arrested' and 'helping the police with their inquiries'?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358

    Pong said:

    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?

    Le Pen mild favourite, something like 4/6.
    Not according to the latest poll, which put Melanchon ahead by 68-32 (in March). In fact he beats her by a larger margin than anyone else, presumably because he gets the centre-left plus a chunk of populists.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    (see near the bottom of the page)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2017

    The Swedish police are very odd....they are putting out statements they haven't arrested anybody while the media are putting out pictures of them...erhhh..arresting people.

    Is it a terminological/translation thing? The difference between being 'arrested' and 'helping the police with their inquiries'?
    Perhaps...the only thing is when that Tim Pool guy went to Sweden, they made some similar very "odd" statements, despite him having video footage which disproved their claims.

    In Tim Pool's case it was here nor there really incident...they suggested to leave a location and gave him an escort out, then the officials denied it all, despite it all being clearly on video...and even then they didn't try the old misspoke or miscommunication, what was on video still just didn't happen according to the police.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358

    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris :

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 18%

    If Hamon drops out, it could be very interesting. I bet Melenchon is getting some WWC votes from Le Pen.
    How would PB POTFR punters price up a Melenchon/Le Pen run off?
    Or, even Macron vs Melenchon ? Which way would Le Pen supporters go ? Some will stay at home. Macron will win easily though.
    I'd think Macron/Melenchon more likely if Hamon dropped out, as you suggest. Plenty of Hamon's colleagues have already broken for Macron, so there would seem to be plenty for him to gain from Hamon leaving, and little for Le Pen.
    Macron-Melanchon was surprisingly close, 43-57 (same poll).
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Meanwhile, Gorsuch has been confirmed which was one of the reasons many Evangelical Christians, in particular, voted for Trump. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/02/yes-donald-trump-gorsuch-is-exactly-why-the-right-voted-for-you.html

    It appears Conservatives feel through the SCOTUS that they can turn the clock back, and make America a more socially conservative country than it currently is now:

    Why does this matter so much? During the 1960s, conservatives started noticing that America had changed rapidly. This coincided with the spate of liberal decisions handed down by the infamous “Warren Court” (the era when Chief Justice Earl Warren presided over the Supreme Court). Had the world gone mad? Suddenly, it was OK for communists to get passports, but not for kids to pray in public schools.

    Next came the Roe v. Wade decision (the impact of which goes unsaid) and laments about “activist” judges. No longer were elected representatives the primary driver of social political change. Simultaneously, they began noticing the culture—media, entertainment, academia, etc.—slipping away from them. Cultural conservatives began strategizing ways to make America great again.

    Infiltrating the media and entertainment worlds are vast projects. One could attempt to place allies in these industries, but this mission would be dicey. First, aspiring conservatives might be weeded out for political reasons. Second, making it into showbiz requires an unpredictable combination of talent and luck. Lastly, once these worlds accept the young conservatives, those young people are tempted (or tend) to “evolve” toward the left.

    Stacking the court with conservative justices was a much tidier, more linear process (but it has proven very difficult and has taken decades just to get to where we are now). However, this process is easier to sell, and there is a substantial and obvious return on investment.


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,933
    edited April 2017

    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris :

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 18%

    If Hamon drops out, it could be very interesting. I bet Melenchon is getting some WWC votes from Le Pen.
    How would PB POTFR punters price up a Melenchon/Le Pen run off?
    Or, even Macron vs Melenchon ? Which way would Le Pen supporters go ? Some will stay at home. Macron will win easily though.
    I'd think Macron/Melenchon more likely if Hamon dropped out, as you suggest. Plenty of Hamon's colleagues have already broken for Macron, so there would seem to be plenty for him to gain from Hamon leaving, and little for Le Pen.
    Someone dropping out at this stage throws a spanner in the works somewhat. There has to be the possibility that if the polling shows a close three horse race, others might drop out so as to try and keep MLP out of the runoff.

    Does anyone know the day on which they send the ballot papers for printing?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017

    This Question Time clanger from Diane Abbott has been overlooked: she killed-off the asylum seeker who is recovering in hospital after being attacked in Croydon. Abbott said:

    “In the months after the Brexit vote we had a 41% rise in race hate. We saw that terrible killing of that Kurdish boy in Croydon”

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/07/diane-abbott-on-top-of-her-brief-as-usual/

    Like that massacre Kellyanne Conway referred to. But to be fair to Abbott, a very serious incident took place in Croydon whereas Kellyanne's was a complete mystery.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017

    Pong said:

    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?

    Le Pen mild favourite, something like 4/6.
    Not according to the latest poll, which put Melanchon ahead by 68-32 (in March). In fact he beats her by a larger margin than anyone else, presumably because he gets the centre-left plus a chunk of populists.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    (see near the bottom of the page)
    Hmm, that's only one poll, and I'm suspicious of these hypothetical match-ups anyway. I'd be very surprised if he won with anything like that margin - he's even nuttier and more extreme than she is. Would the French really vote for 100% confiscation of income over €300K?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    surbiton said:

    This Question Time clanger from Diane Abbott has been overlooked: she killed-off the asylum seeker who is recovering in hospital after being attacked in Croydon. Abbott said:

    “In the months after the Brexit vote we had a 41% rise in race hate. We saw that terrible killing of that Kurdish boy in Croydon”

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/07/diane-abbott-on-top-of-her-brief-as-usual/

    Like that massacre Kellyanne Conway referred to. But to be fair to Abbott, a very serious incident took place in Croydon whereas Kellyanne's was a complete mystery.
    Dianne Abbott marginally more truthful than Keyllyanne Conway...thats a vote winner.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,955

    So, just to make sure I've got this right, we have:

    In favour:
    Uk, France, Germany, EU

    Against:
    Putin, Corbyn, SNP, Farage, Banks, Hopkins, Coulter.....

    Corbyn will not state that Assad ordered the chemical weapons attacks and wants to give the Russians a veto over any interventions in Syria. What a contemptible, disgusting man he is.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954

    Pong said:

    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?

    Le Pen mild favourite, something like 4/6.
    Not according to the latest poll, which put Melanchon ahead by 68-32 (in March). In fact he beats her by a larger margin than anyone else, presumably because he gets the centre-left plus a chunk of populists.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    (see near the bottom of the page)
    Interesting. It really seems like there's nothing Le Pen could do to win. Roll on Le Pen the third to have a go I guess.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,974
    Scott_P said:
    Bloody idiotic. If they are suggesting using ships based offshore to shoot down Syrian and Russian aircraft then it will be open season on all the US and European aircraft flying support missions against ISIS. The anti aircraft capabilities of the Russian units stationed in Syria are more than capable of shooting down our aircraft.

    I never thought it would be Labour MPs pushing for us to go into direct armed conflict with the Russians.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Bloody idiotic. If they are suggesting using ships based offshore to shoot down Syrian and Russian aircraft then it will be open season on all the US and European aircraft flying support missions against ISIS. The anti aircraft capabilities of the Russian units stationed in Syria are more than capable of shooting down our aircraft.

    I never thought it would be Labour MPs pushing for us to go into direct armed conflict with the Russians.

    I expect their real target is rather closer to home...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,196

    Would the French really vote for 100% confiscation of income over €300K?

    Quite possibly. :D
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,933
    surbiton said:

    This Question Time clanger from Diane Abbott has been overlooked: she killed-off the asylum seeker who is recovering in hospital after being attacked in Croydon. Abbott said:

    “In the months after the Brexit vote we had a 41% rise in race hate. We saw that terrible killing of that Kurdish boy in Croydon”

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/07/diane-abbott-on-top-of-her-brief-as-usual/

    Like that massacre Kellyanne Conway referred to. But to be fair to Abbott, a very serious incident took place in Croydon whereas Kellyanne's was a complete mystery.
    It often surprises me how little mistakes like that get made by a politician or advisor under pressure. I'm sure that in most of our professional lives we've once or twice made a spoken error in an important meeting, which we had to shamefully correct later.

    I can't stand Diane Abbot or anything she stands for, but am happy to believe she misheard a report of the event or was badly briefed. As long as it's a one-off and not part of a pattern of mis-speaking, it can probably slide with a contrite apology to the family. But behind the scenes Labour need to know how and why the feck-up happened, so it doesn't happen again!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954

    Bloody idiotic. If they are suggesting using ships based offshore to shoot down Syrian and Russian aircraft then it will be open season on all the US and European aircraft flying support missions against ISIS. The anti aircraft capabilities of the Russian units stationed in Syria are more than capable of shooting down our aircraft.

    I never thought it would be Labour MPs pushing for us to go into direct armed conflict with the Russians.

    I expect their real target is rather closer to home...
    You think the UN might pass a resolution granting a no fly zone over Jeremy Corbyn?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,933
    edited April 2017


    Would the French really vote for 100% confiscation of income over €300K?

    Philip Hammond certainly hopes so!

    Maybe West Ham can sort out their finances by ground-sharing the Olympic stadium with Paris St Germain?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,955
    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,980
    edited April 2017

    It seems to me dangerous to view serious issues in terms of whose "side" your view puts you on, as some have on this thread. It's not like picking sides in primary school football.

    Trump may be right end of the debate on this one for the wrong (or even for the right) reason. I won't disagree him merely because I think him a poor President (although I do). Ditto Putin, Corbyn, Farron,, Farage, Katie Hopkins, or whoever else you care to name.

    My personal view is that Assad's future as Syrian leader is now assured. The ship of moderate opposition has sailed, and the prospect of ISIS domination is even worse than Assad/Russia. But limited strikes may have a role in dissuading Assad from further use of chemical weapons agains t innocent civilians (and I think it very likely he did this recently, if not 100% certain).

    There is room for reasonable people to disagree on reasonable grounds. It doesn't in itself make them an Assad apologist, a Putin lapdog, or anything else.

    People seem to want to polarise the debate as them and us, then poke fun at "them" by association.

    "Feeling morally superior by posting on a message board
    Thats's Entertainment, that's entertainment..."
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Pong said:

    How would PB POTFR punters price up Melenchon/Le Pen if the pair made the run off?

    Le Pen mild favourite, something like 4/6.
    Not according to the latest poll, which put Melanchon ahead by 68-32 (in March). In fact he beats her by a larger margin than anyone else, presumably because he gets the centre-left plus a chunk of populists.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    (see near the bottom of the page)
    I think I'd make him a decent fav (1/2 v 6/4?), but this is the epitome of a hypothetical poll!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Have we noted this latest Odoxa-Dentsu poll for Le Point? (Changes since a week ago)

    Macron 23.5% (-2.5)
    Le Pen 23% (-2)
    Fillon 18.5% (+1.5)
    Mélenchon 18% (+2)
    Hamon 9% (+1)

    Biggish movements, although the absolute figures are similar to other polls.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/04/07/97001-20170407FILWWW00195-sondage-fillon-et-melenchon-progressent.php

    C'mon Hamon , step down !
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
    Kennedy has also ruled in favour of abortion rights and on same-sex marriage, too. This is an interesting piece re Gorsuch, Garland and criminal justice http://reason.com/blog/2017/04/04/on-criminal-justice-and-executive-branch

    I think the Democrats filibustered because of the base (who, looking at twitter are VERY anti-Gorsuch - they see him as anti-woman and a Scalia clone among many other things) and the Senate Committee Hearings, with Gorsuch dodging quite a few questions which I think was the trigger which led to such Democrat opposition.

    Talking to SeanF recently on here, he doesn't seem to think the Dems can take back the Senate. So they are going to have to pray that Kennedy doesn't retire, that Ginsburg (who is pretty old now) doesn't die, and that Beyer doesn't retire/die either.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Miss Vance, he narrated the audiobooks of The Warlord Chronicles, by Bernard Cornwell (for my money, the best thing Cornwell's written, which I've read).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    New thread.
This discussion has been closed.