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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 5

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Really? There's barely a day that goes by that I don't think "what would I pay to get my kids off my hands?"
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    What is all this hysteria about Gibraltar being given back to the Spanish? Utter nonsense. It would be illegitimate for Spain to absorb Gibraltar without self-determination and approval from the people of Gibraltar, which is not going to happen. The EU won't be bullied by Spain into making that an issue. Denmark, Poland, Bulgaria etc don't give a hoot over whether Britain or Spain owns Gibraltar, it won't be a factor in negotiations.

    Worth remembering that Gibraltar itself voted 95% remain - so it's not exactly fair to surrender it to Spain because the rest of the UK voted to leave.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    GeoffM said:

    kle4 said:

    IIRC

    As part of The Treaty of Utrecht that ceded Gibraltar to us, didn't the deal also give us exclusivity on the slave trade in Spanish colonies in the Americas?

    If so, a bloody shameful deal, out of embarrassment we should give Gibraltar back.

    Doesn't it also say Jews should not be allowed or something? Shockingly, historic agreements contain unpalatable elements.

    Spain can ask for it back, but they cannot demand it if anyone. What reason do we have to go against the curent wishes of our citizens there? Is the EU really going to punish the Gibraltarians because Spain regrets signing a treaty 300 years ago and we won't hand it back for no reason?
    Yes, no Jews or Moors to live in the city.
    Which means I'm personally breaking an international Treaty.
    I've always found that kind of cool.
    Aren't you personally giving Spain a reason to dispute the treaty? :p
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Is this an open auction?
    I'm in.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    GeoffM said:

    kle4 said:

    IIRC

    As part of The Treaty of Utrecht that ceded Gibraltar to us, didn't the deal also give us exclusivity on the slave trade in Spanish colonies in the Americas?

    If so, a bloody shameful deal, out of embarrassment we should give Gibraltar back.

    Doesn't it also say Jews should not be allowed or something? Shockingly, historic agreements contain unpalatable elements.

    Spain can ask for it back, but they cannot demand it if anyone. What reason do we have to go against the curent wishes of our citizens there? Is the EU really going to punish the Gibraltarians because Spain regrets signing a treaty 300 years ago and we won't hand it back for no reason?
    Yes, no Jews or Moors to live in the city.
    Which means I'm personally breaking an international Treaty.
    I've always found that kind of cool.
    I imagine the Spanish have not tried to suggest the place should be handed back on the basis of that clause not being upheld, eh?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    edited March 2017
    .
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405

    TOPPING said:

    What has Huddersfield ever done for us, frankly?

    The birthplace of Rugby League.

    And all of my in-laws live there!
    OK to hell with it, we'll keep it.
  • Options
    Just remember how out of tune with public opinion twitter is.

    I'm running a Twitter poll which asks

    Should the UK give away Gibraltar to Spain in exchange for a good Brexit deal?

    Yes - 30%

    No - 70%


    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847763969792147457
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,805
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:


    It's a piece of string, which is my point. Ten years for the PTA negotiation sounds about right, and fifteen years for the whole process.

    15 years to get the full deal signed? Did you previously work on the Treasury forecast? :smiley:
    If you imply I predicted immediate economic Armageddon following Brexit, I didn't. I never expected Brexit to be an economic catastrophe for us, and if it were, we would be rowing back, regardless of the vote. Fifteen years to complete is what I predicted before the vote. We will see. So far I haven't had to revise* many of my predictions on Brexit. It isn't a case of having second sight or expert knowledge. It's just a case of listening to what people say and being somewhat realistic about how the issues get resolved. I don't think Brexit is a particularly sensible course for Britain, but it is an interesting one.

    * Disclosure. One revision is on the WTO negotiations that I thought would be even more problematic than the UK/EU ones. Although negotiating our WTO schedules will be a nightmare, whether we actually have them won't be a major stumbling for technical reasons. There's an article in the Financial Times, Brexit and the issue of the WTO schedules, that explains the issue well.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Really? There's barely a day that goes by that I don't think "what would I pay to get my kids off my hands?"
    ...isn't that what boarding school's for? The answer is ~£30k per annum.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    Just remember how out of tune with public opinion twitter is.

    I'm running a Twitter poll which asks

    Should the UK give away Gibraltar to Spain in exchange for a good Brexit deal?

    Yes - 30%

    No - 70%


    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847763969792147457

    It's not out of tune with everything! Broken clocks and so on.
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    Thanks everybody, you've given me an idea for a thread on Sunday, I must read up on the Louisiana Purchase and the sale of Alaska beforehand though.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    In more important news (quoting from the FT):

    "India’s Gujarat state has toughened up the penalties of its existing cow protection law so that anyone convicted of slaughtering a cow can be sentenced to life imprisonment, up from the previous seven years’ incarceration."
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    In more important news (quoting from the FT):

    "India’s Gujarat state has toughened up the penalties of its existing cow protection law so that anyone convicted of slaughtering a cow can be sentenced to life imprisonment, up from the previous seven years’ incarceration."

    Holy Cow!
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    rcs1000 said:

    In more important news (quoting from the FT):

    "India’s Gujarat state has toughened up the penalties of its existing cow protection law so that anyone convicted of slaughtering a cow can be sentenced to life imprisonment, up from the previous seven years’ incarceration."

    What if I just punched one?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    From my time playing Crusader Kings and Europa Universalis the area now known as Gibraltar was for centuries owned by the Moors. If we're going to give it away based on historical occupancy rather than the law then why not to Morocco?

    Or how about we just let the people decide and have free will.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    See, this is the problem with negotiations, the other side changing the focus.

    2 cows and a bale of hay.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Gibraltar will join Spain (Eventually), I think it is a demographic inevitability.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Just remember how out of tune with public opinion twitter is.

    I'm running a Twitter poll which asks

    Should the UK give away Gibraltar to Spain in exchange for a good Brexit deal?

    Yes - 30%

    No - 70%


    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847763969792147457

    It's not out of tune with everything! Broken clocks and so on.
    It is out of tune, that as many as 30% say Yes is ridiculous.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    Do you have a link to her Tinder profile?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    See, this is the problem with negotiations, the other side changing the focus.

    2 cows and a bale of hay.
    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    See, this is the problem with negotiations, the other side changing the focus.

    2 cows and a bale of hay.
    In other news, respected blogger Mike smithson arrested on suspicion of facilitating human trafficking on his website.
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    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In more important news (quoting from the FT):

    "India’s Gujarat state has toughened up the penalties of its existing cow protection law so that anyone convicted of slaughtering a cow can be sentenced to life imprisonment, up from the previous seven years’ incarceration."

    What if I just punched one?
    Is cow tipping really a thing or just an urban myth?

    If it is a real thing, might get you into real trouble in India.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. F, you think Mr. Eagles is trolling?

    Ah. Of course. Just like he does when he claims Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792

    What is all this hysteria about Gibraltar being given back to the Spanish? Utter nonsense.

    It's complete nonsense - the EU is explicit that any Gibraltar questions are Anglo-Spanish bilateral matters after Brexit!
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    See, this is the problem with negotiations, the other side changing the focus.

    2 cows and a bale of hay.
    But are they sacred cows?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    From my time playing Crusader Kings and Europa Universalis the area now known as Gibraltar was for centuries owned by the Moors. If we're going to give it away based on historical occupancy rather than the law then why not to Morocco?

    Or how about we just let the people decide and have free will.

    Careful, allowing people to make decisions is setting a dangerous precedent.
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    Mr. F, you think Mr. Eagles is trolling?

    Ah. Of course. Just like he does when he claims Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.

    Caesar became the name for Kings, whereas Hannibal became a byword for humiliating military defeats and ultimately seeing your country being wiped out.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Pulpstar said:

    Gibraltar will join Spain (Eventually), I think it is a demographic inevitability.

    I think they will join the Kingdom of Andalucia, personally.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    Mr. F, you think Mr. Eagles is trolling?

    Ah. Of course. Just like he does when he claims Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.

    Caesar became the name for Kings, whereas Hannibal became a byword for humiliating military defeats and ultimately seeing your country being wiped out.
    I thought it was byword for crossing the Alps in an unusual manner? :p
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,805
    Pulpstar said:

    Gibraltar will join Spain (Eventually), I think it is a demographic inevitability.

    The deal basically is that if Spain sends in the troops without agreement, we send a warship, or something. Anything short of that, Gibraltar is on its own and will have to negotiate with the much larger entity as best it can.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    See, this is the problem with negotiations, the other side changing the focus.

    2 cows and a bale of hay.
    But are they sacred cows?
    I could have a priest bless them if it helps.

    Ah, it's already turning complicated, I'm walking away.
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    RobD said:

    Mr. F, you think Mr. Eagles is trolling?

    Ah. Of course. Just like he does when he claims Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.

    Caesar became the name for Kings, whereas Hannibal became a byword for humiliating military defeats and ultimately seeing your country being wiped out.
    I thought it was byword for crossing the Alps in an unusual manner? :p
    I think you're confusing him with Colonel John Smith

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_"Hannibal"_Smith
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    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    What is all this hysteria about Gibraltar being given back to the Spanish? Utter nonsense.

    It's complete nonsense - the EU is explicit that any Gibraltar questions are Anglo-Spanish bilateral matters after Brexit!
    The press, sites like this, etc., seek out stories about confict because that is interesting.

    EU and UK exchange friendly notes outline negotiating positions, with both sides agreeing a transition period is necessary (and which will, by the way, almost completely eliminate arguments about the bill) is just not a story.

    Will there be tough decisions and compromises on the way? Yes. Will some hardliners be upset? Yes. Will the Press in Europe and the UK make it sound like the other side is being utterly unreasonable? Yes.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In more important news (quoting from the FT):

    "India’s Gujarat state has toughened up the penalties of its existing cow protection law so that anyone convicted of slaughtering a cow can be sentenced to life imprisonment, up from the previous seven years’ incarceration."

    What if I just punched one?
    Is cow tipping really a thing or just an urban myth?

    If it is a real thing, might get you into real trouble in India.
    Don't you go messing with cows.

    independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cows-officially-the-most-deadly-large-animals-in-britain-a6727266.html
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Eagles, are you sure about that? A Czar or Kaiser is an emperor. The German for king (no umlaut, unsure how to type them) is Konig.

    Also, Hannibal is best associated with the most audacious march in history, the most successful ambush in history, and the greatest battlefield victory in history.

    If you think Carthage was destroyed at the end of the Second Punic War, could you please explain to the class how we came to have a Third Punic War? Or how the Vandals came to conquer it centuries later? Or how the Exarchate of Carthage, from when Heraclius travelled to overthrow the tyrant Flavius Phocas, came into being?

    Edited extra bit: whence*
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,079

    From my time playing Crusader Kings and Europa Universalis the area now known as Gibraltar was for centuries owned by the Moors. If we're going to give it away based on historical occupancy rather than the law then why not to Morocco?

    Or how about we just let the people decide and have free will.

    It is in fact a Moorish (Arabic) name.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    I've always said the same about the Falklands. Reunion is considered a core part of France, why don't we do it with dependencies, apart from the obvious reason that the establishment likes using them to avoid taxes.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    My children have done nothing for me in utilitarian terms except consume my resources. That doesn't mean I'm willing to sell them.
    Sounds like an opening gambit to me - I'll give you a good deal for them.
    Well, if we're negotiating, I'm pretty attached to the kids; what'll you offer me for the wife?
    Do you have a link to her Tinder profile?
    If I did, I don't think this is the kind of website I would be frequenting.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Eagles, are you sure about that? A Czar or Kaiser is an emperor. The German for king (no umlaut, unsure how to type them) is Konig.

    Also, Hannibal is best associated with the most audacious march in history, the most successful ambush in history, and the greatest battlefield victory in history.

    If you think Carthage was destroyed at the end of the Second Punic War, could you please explain to the class how we came to have a Third Punic War? Or how the Vandals came to conquer it centuries later? Or how the Exarchate of Carthage, from when Heraclius travelled to overthrow the tyrant Flavius Phocas, came into being?

    I said ultimately contributed.

    If Hannibal had been any good, he would have won at Zama/the Second Punic War, so there'd be no need for a third war.

    That's your problem, you look at the little picture, winning piddling little battles here and there are insignificant compared to winning wars.

    For example would you say Hitler was awesome with his tactics in the early part of WWII, but ultimately he was a disaster for Germany.

    Ditto the Japanese in late 1941 and early 1942.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    * reports PB to cow protection league *

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,176
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Over my dead body will Spain get their hands on Gibraltar.

    Spain can piss off.

    Tough titties. If getting a good Brexit deal means giving away Gibraltar, so be it.

    Why should 32,000 people be allowed to deny 60 odd million Brits a good deal?
    If Gibraltar is sold out, I'll be lobbying my MP, and every Tory Brexit MP I can think of, to reject the deal outright.

    I will also quit the Tory Party.
    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    I've asked Keiran to get Opinium to poll on it, would UK voters be ok with giving away Gibraltar to Spain in exchange for a good Brexit deal?

    If only Remain had warned of this during the campaign.
    WE should sell Gibraltar for €60 bn. I think we need that sum........
    Against their wishes? What a democrat!
    The residents of Diego Garcia are laughing at that!
    So, your argument is that because we've behaved very badly towards one group of British nationals, we should behave very badly towards another.

    We have to do what is in the greater good.

    We did it with Diego Garcia and we might have to do the same for Gibraltar.

    How do you think the citizens of the UK would feel if we slip into an economic disaster/WTO that could have been avoided if we had ceded Gibraltar to Spain?
    It's a false choice. We're not going to slip into economic disaster. And if we do, it's most unlikely that throwing the Gibraltarians to the wolves would avert it.
    Plus Spain is only 1 EU nation out of the 27 who need to agree and I doubt the people of Gibraltar would be too happy either
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,079
    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Eagles, the Germans lost more than one battle before the end of WWII (and looking at those two wars is a bizarre comparison to make).

    As for missing the big picture: wise words, were they directed at yourself. The Roman constitution and borderline pathological patriotism of the era was the critical difference.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The view of Open Europe

    http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-eus-draft-brexit-guidelines-look-anything-but-punitive/

    I'm inclined to agree. It all looks pretty sensible and less melodramatic than some would wish for.
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    Mr. Eagles, the Germans lost more than one battle before the end of WWII (and looking at those two wars is a bizarre comparison to make).

    As for missing the big picture: wise words, were they directed at yourself. The Roman constitution and borderline pathological patriotism of the era was the critical difference.

    I'll have to reply to this later, I've just taken my latest dose of diazepam, and that makes me drowsy and sleepy.

    But like Caesar after Dyrrhachium I shall return triumphant.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Passporting. The Channel Isles are outside the EU, Gibraltar is inside.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,079

    Mr. Eagles, are you sure about that? A Czar or Kaiser is an emperor. The German for king (no umlaut, unsure how to type them) is Konig.

    Also, Hannibal is best associated with the most audacious march in history, the most successful ambush in history, and the greatest battlefield victory in history.

    If you think Carthage was destroyed at the end of the Second Punic War, could you please explain to the class how we came to have a Third Punic War? Or how the Vandals came to conquer it centuries later? Or how the Exarchate of Carthage, from when Heraclius travelled to overthrow the tyrant Flavius Phocas, came into being?

    I said ultimately contributed.

    If Hannibal had been any good, he would have won at Zama/the Second Punic War, so there'd be no need for a third war.

    That's your problem, you look at the little picture, winning piddling little battles here and there are insignificant compared to winning wars.

    For example would you say Hitler was awesome with his tactics in the early part of WWII, but ultimately he was a disaster for Germany.

    Ditto the Japanese in late 1941 and early 1942.
    Of course the Japanese did have the advantage of surprise. I once went to a talk by an Australian military historian, at the “Bridge over the River Kwai” site who, IIRC laid much of the blame for our involvement in the War in the East on the Americans.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
    Kenny had found favour among some Nats:

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/847765062609756161
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,079
    Animal_pb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Passporting. The Channel Isles are outside the EU, Gibraltar is inside.
    Ah. So, after 2019.....?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    The Isle of Man has assiduously courted the on-line gaming community, and there are some decent sized operations there. I think Jersey and Guernsey are (a) more expensive places to operate, and (b) already have extensive financial services industries so haven't felt the need to try and attract on-line gaming companies in the way Gibraltar has.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    My father was a prominent member of the Integration With Britain Party which campaigned on that platform. The IWBP provided one Chief Minister - Robert Peliza in 1969-72.

    It was at one point led by Maurice Xiberras who led the Opposition here after Bob lost power in 1972.
    Maurice died 12 days ago aged 80 and the Rock is currently mourning his passing.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The current headline is about the EU banning us from cutting taxes or red tape as part of any deal.

    I presume the second part (red tape) is merely a recognition that any products sold by British companies into the EU post Brexit will need to be compliant with EU product standards. (Which should hardly be a surprise.) But the first? Come on.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Animal_pb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Passporting. The Channel Isles are outside the EU, Gibraltar is inside.
    Ah. So, after 2019.....?
    Well, it's certainly going to kill off most of the motor insurers based there, I'd say.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
    I thought fences around military facilities were... errr... usual.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Passporting. The Channel Isles are outside the EU, Gibraltar is inside.
    Ah. So, after 2019.....?
    Well, it's certainly going to kill off most of the motor insurers based there, I'd say.
    Self driving cars are going to kill off the traditional motor insurance industry.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
    chestnut said:

    The view of Open Europe

    http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-eus-draft-brexit-guidelines-look-anything-but-punitive/

    I'm inclined to agree. It all looks pretty sensible and less melodramatic than some would wish for.

    These draft guidelines will now be discussed among the ‘sherpas’ of the 27 remaining EU member states, with a view to EU27 leaders formally adopting them at their extraordinary summit on April 29. They are therefore subject to change, but after reading them I am more optimistic about the prospect of a good deal – for the UK and the rest of the EU.
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Passporting. The Channel Isles are outside the EU, Gibraltar is inside.
    Ah. So, after 2019.....?
    Well, it's certainly going to kill off most of the motor insurers based there, I'd say.
    Self driving cars are going to kill off the traditional motor insurance industry.
    Fair point. Brexit will happen first, though.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
    Aren't there villages inside the base areas?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    It's not you. It's been noticeable for a couple of days.

    Are they struggling for news?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The Telegraph could give the Mail or Express a run for their money in the hysteria stakes.

    The only paper that seems to try to be reasonably objective in its news coverage is the Guardian (plenty of hysteria among the columnists...)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Chestnut, to be fair, the main news item on Look North last night was that smoking's bad for you...
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:


    I think he will resign this year blaming everyone but particularly the Republican Party. "You had your chance and you blew it".

    Is it you who is backing the 4.0-4.6 generally on Betfair for 2017 exit ?!
    Yes - some of it.
    Thanks :o

    I'm open to a private offer up to £500 liability if you want to avoid Betfair's commision/PC by the way.
    Thanks but I'm treating it as trading bet as the news and approval ratings gets worse for Trump. It's peanuts and just for fun. The Betfair commission will be peanuts squared or zero.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The current headline is about the EU banning us from cutting taxes or red tape as part of any deal.

    I presume the second part (red tape) is merely a recognition that any products sold by British companies into the EU post Brexit will need to be compliant with EU product standards. (Which should hardly be a surprise.) But the first? Come on.

    We'll finally get our much-anticipated zero rating of home energy supplies on March 30th 2019 (or 2025 with a transition period).
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,805

    Mr. Eagles, are you sure about that? A Czar or Kaiser is an emperor. The German for king (no umlaut, unsure how to type them) is Konig.

    Also, Hannibal is best associated with the most audacious march in history, the most successful ambush in history, and the greatest battlefield victory in history.

    If you think Carthage was destroyed at the end of the Second Punic War, could you please explain to the class how we came to have a Third Punic War? Or how the Vandals came to conquer it centuries later? Or how the Exarchate of Carthage, from when Heraclius travelled to overthrow the tyrant Flavius Phocas, came into being?

    I said ultimately contributed.

    If Hannibal had been any good, he would have won at Zama/the Second Punic War, so there'd be no need for a third war.

    That's your problem, you look at the little picture, winning piddling little battles here and there are insignificant compared to winning wars.

    For example would you say Hitler was awesome with his tactics in the early part of WWII, but ultimately he was a disaster for Germany.

    Ditto the Japanese in late 1941 and early 1942.
    Of course the Japanese did have the advantage of surprise. I once went to a talk by an Australian military historian, at the “Bridge over the River Kwai” site who, IIRC laid much of the blame for our involvement in the War in the East on the Americans.
    The US blockaded Japan because of its aggression in the Far East. As an island Japan had to import its raw materials so it was intolerable from their point of view. An act of war, really. Observers at the time thought Japan would come off worse against the United States in a war but understood their motivation for launching the first attack before America could fully prepare.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,176
    edited March 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The Telegraph could give the Mail or Express a run for their money in the hysteria stakes.

    The only paper that seems to try to be reasonably objective in its news coverage is the Guardian (plenty of hysteria among the columnists...)
    The Sunday Times is probably most objective of all, it was Leave but its sister paper Remain
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Alderney (under the Balliwick of Guernsey) was an early data centre site for online gaming with a favourable (at the time) tax regime.

    However their mistake was to just encourage the machines to be sited there and brass-plate companies. Gibraltar was more careful and granted gaming licences at very favourable rates, undercutting Alderney. But they made the licences conditional on companies bringing real employment and real wages into the jurisdiction. So the moment Alderney was undercut by 1% corporation tax the companies could just power down their machines and stick them on the back of a truck headed for the next cheapest location. But in Gib they have become more entrenched and sticky with a greater cost to move once here.

    Jersey was always more prudish. Top shelf magazines are still illegal there, I think, and casinos might still be banned. They were certainly illegal a decade ago.

    Jersey went (successfully) for the finance sector instead. Offshore places tend to pick one sector and concentrate on it.

  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
    Aren't there villages inside the base areas?
    We don't have songbirds here in the UK any more anyway, because cats and because the RSPB has narrowed its own remit to the protection of raptors. In the circumstances I can't get very excited about the Cypriots harvesting some of theirs, though their methods do seem a bit harsh. Learning of the existence of the EU Birds Directive is one of those things that make one think Brexit isn't all bad.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why not make Gib a part of the UK proper?
    I sort of more distant Isle of Wight.

    Isn't their entire economy based around being in the UK, but not in the UK? There'd be no incentive for the bookmaking industry to be there if it was simply another town in the UK.
    I’ve sometimes wondered why it’s there and not Jersey. Seem to recall something about an onl-line casino based in Alderney at one time.
    Alderney (under the Balliwick of Guernsey) was an early data centre site for online gaming with a favourable (at the time) tax regime.

    However their mistake was to just encourage the machines to be sited there and brass-plate companies. Gibraltar was more careful and granted gaming licences at very favourable rates, undercutting Alderney. But they made the licences conditional on companies bringing real employment and real wages into the jurisdiction. So the moment Alderney was undercut by 1% corporation tax the companies could just power down their machines and stick them on the back of a truck headed for the next cheapest location. But in Gib they have become more entrenched and sticky with a greater cost to move once here.

    Jersey was always more prudish. Top shelf magazines are still illegal there, I think, and casinos might still be banned. They were certainly illegal a decade ago.

    Jersey went (successfully) for the finance sector instead. Offshore places tend to pick one sector and concentrate on it.


    "Offshore places tend to pick one sector and concentrate on it."

    So which sector do you think the UK should concentrate on?

  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
    Not really, RAF Akrotiri is relatively secure, as one would expect for a military airbase, however Sovereign base Dhekelia and the British presents in Limassol are vast and crisscrossed with public access roads IIRC. In the most part, boundaries exist on paper only.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I'm still waiting for a decent response to my earlier question.

    What has Gibraltar ever done for us?

    Other than being a vital strategic port on the mouth of the Mediterranean?
    So does Akrotiri according to Pulpstar.
    We haven't had the bases in Cyprus for as long, and I don't think they have much naval capacity.
    As the name suggests, RAF Akrotiri provides a permanent air capability in the Med, not Naval
    RAF Akrotiri is in part a national disgrace...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/cyprus/11885489/The-battle-to-stop-Cypruss-songbird-massacre.html
    Every year before the hunting season kicked off, local Cypriots with hunting dogs would arrive on the Sovereign bases to flush out every critter that was safely protected there. It’s not just songbirds and it’s entirely the fault of the Cypriots.
    Can't we fence our bases off?
    Aren't there villages inside the base areas?
    We don't have songbirds here in the UK any more anyway, because cats and because the RSPB has narrowed its own remit to the protection of raptors. In the circumstances I can't get very excited about the Cypriots harvesting some of theirs, though their methods do seem a bit harsh. Learning of the existence of the EU Birds Directive is one of those things that make one think Brexit isn't all bad.
    Could have fooled me listening out of my window, although it is quite a rural area here.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited March 2017
    TimFarron's tactics are certainly unconventional - at every utterance from the EU he jumps out in front of the camera to reiterate that the EU has the whip hand and puny little Britain is about to get shafted.

    "Commenting on the release of the draft European Council negotiation guidelines, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said:

    These guidelines show the strength of the EU in these negotiations, and the carelessness of the UK government in isolating themselves from our European allies."

    Is this some sort of genius or is he ordering a taxi for the LDs ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,030

    Sean_F said:

    IIRC

    As part of The Treaty of Utrecht that ceded Gibraltar to us, didn't the deal also give us exclusivity on the slave trade in Spanish colonies in the Americas?

    If so, a bloody shameful deal, out of embarrassment we should give Gibraltar back.

    I think you're trolling.
    No, I'm giving PBers a history lessons.

    Britain's role in the slave trade is a national embarrassment and we should help rectify that vile error because one of Britain's finest achievements was helping end the slave trade.
    May I recommend the Barbados heroes museum which does a very good job in treating the slave trade history as something that happened rather than something to blame people for.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Tennis: congrats to Konta on beating Venus Williams. She's through to the Miami Open final:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/39450661
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The current headline is about the EU banning us from cutting taxes or red tape as part of any deal.

    I presume the second part (red tape) is merely a recognition that any products sold by British companies into the EU post Brexit will need to be compliant with EU product standards. (Which should hardly be a surprise.) But the first? Come on.

    I've actually noticed this broader phenomenon in a number of Leavers. The Brexit process, the very thing they've craved over the years, is causing them to foam at the mouth. I believe there's something Freudian going on here: despite their protestations to the contrary and all the self denial, deep down Leavers actually adore the EU. Psychologically, Brexit is very difficult for them to handle.
  • Options
    I wonder if Maurice McLeod bets.

    A seismic shift is needed for Corbyn to win in 2020. But it could happen

    So what if the Labour leader isn’t a whizz with a teleprompter? He has great policies, his integrity is rock solid – and with help, he could still sweep to power

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/31/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-general-election-2020
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    F1: seems Honda may supply Sauber next year, according to the gossip column:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39420373

    In better news, Giovinazzi, who made a surprise (and impressive) debut in Australia, will be freed by Ferrari to race for Sauber again in China, if it comes to it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    Chuka Umunna is running a one man campaign to become the leader of the centre-left stay in the single market.

    https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/847777164015566850
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    edited March 2017
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Chuka Umunna is running a one man campaign to become the leader of the centre-left stay in the single market.

    https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/847777164015566850

    Him and Tim Farron vying for the role of King CaNUTe

  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TGOHF said:

    TimFarron's tactics are certainly unconventional - at every utterance from the EU he jumps out in front of the camera to reiterate that the EU has the whip hand and puny little Britain is about to get shafted.

    "Commenting on the release of the draft European Council negotiation guidelines, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said:

    These guidelines show the strength of the EU in these negotiations, and the carelessness of the UK government in isolating themselves from our European allies."

    Is this some sort of genius or is he ordering a taxi for the LDs ?


    It's a dumb position. If he's right he'll be hated for it, and if he's wrong he'll ridiculed for it.

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Gnosis, the Ethereum-based decentralized prediction market platform, just moved to Gibraltar.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Corbynism is busy sweeping other areas of the nation :)
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The current headline is about the EU banning us from cutting taxes or red tape as part of any deal.

    I presume the second part (red tape) is merely a recognition that any products sold by British companies into the EU post Brexit will need to be compliant with EU product standards. (Which should hardly be a surprise.) But the first? Come on.

    I've actually noticed this broader phenomenon in a number of Leavers. The Brexit process, the very thing they've craved over the years, is causing them to foam at the mouth. I believe there's something Freudian going on here: despite their protestations to the contrary and all the self denial, deep down Leavers actually adore the EU. Psychologically, Brexit is very difficult for them to handle.
    I think you're psycho-analysing beyond your competence there old chap. Some people seem to be getting a bit hot under the collar about Brexit. The newspapers do it to puff up sales. Those of us who have been confirmed Eurosceptics since forever are much more sanguine. We'll not get sucked into the anti-democratic superstate. But as we go they are revealing themselves for what they are - hostile. I can't blame EU federasts for trying to be beastly to us. We're apostates. The penalty for that is death. At some point of pain or frustration I suspect we may just walk. No trade deal but WTO terms. No exit payment. No security support. It seems some on the EU side are determined to make an enemy of the UK. Which is not really wise.
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    At the 2015 GE in London Labour were 9% ahead of the Tories, now they are only 3% ahead.

    Take a bow Jeremy, take a bow

    Changes since the GE

    Con 34 (-1)

    Lab 37 (-7)

    Lib Dem 14 (+6)

    UKIP 9 (+1)

    Greens 5 (nc)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447
    tick, tock, tick, tock...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061

    At the 2015 GE in London Labour were 9% ahead of the Tories, now they are only 3% ahead.

    Take a bow Jeremy, take a bow

    Changes since the GE

    Con 34 (-1)

    Lab 37 (-7)

    Lib Dem 14 (+6)

    UKIP 9 (+1)

    Greens 5 (nc)

    Only elections count.
  • Options

    tick, tock, tick, tock...
    The Blairite Mayor Sadiq Khan has really damaged Labour in London.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,176
    edited March 2017

    At the 2015 GE in London Labour were 9% ahead of the Tories, now they are only 3% ahead.

    Take a bow Jeremy, take a bow

    Changes since the GE

    Con 34 (-1)

    Lab 37 (-7)

    Lib Dem 14 (+6)

    UKIP 9 (+1)

    Greens 5 (nc)

    LDs biggest gainers in London since general election which explains Richmond Park
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    At the 2015 GE in London Labour were 9% ahead of the Tories, now they are only 3% ahead.

    Take a bow Jeremy, take a bow

    Changes since the GE

    Con 34 (-1)

    Lab 37 (-7)

    Lib Dem 14 (+6)

    UKIP 9 (+1)

    Greens 5 (nc)

    With a possible UKIP squeeze to come as well?

    Con theoretically re-gain:

    Ealing Cent and Acton
    Brentford and Isleworth
    Ilford North
    Enfield North

    and also gain:

    Hampstead and Kilburn
    Harrow West
    Westminster North
    Tooting (haha!)

    But lose (to LDs) - again a bit theoretical with double incumbency bonuses:

    Twickenham
    Kingston and Surbiton
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,728

    TGOHF said:

    TimFarron's tactics are certainly unconventional - at every utterance from the EU he jumps out in front of the camera to reiterate that the EU has the whip hand and puny little Britain is about to get shafted.

    "Commenting on the release of the draft European Council negotiation guidelines, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said:

    These guidelines show the strength of the EU in these negotiations, and the carelessness of the UK government in isolating themselves from our European allies."

    Is this some sort of genius or is he ordering a taxi for the LDs ?


    It's a dumb position. If he's right he'll be hated for it, and if he's wrong he'll ridiculed for it.

    LD 14 (+7)
  • Options
    I'm calling it now, if Corbyn leads Labour at the general election the result will be closer to 1931 than 1983.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Poll:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    London // Westminster VI:

    LAB: 37% (-7)
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 14% (+6)
    UKIP: 9% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    (via YouGov / 24 - 28 Mar)
    Chgs w/ GE2015.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or is The Telegraph becoming increasingly hysterical about Brexit?

    The current headline is about the EU banning us from cutting taxes or red tape as part of any deal.

    I presume the second part (red tape) is merely a recognition that any products sold by British companies into the EU post Brexit will need to be compliant with EU product standards. (Which should hardly be a surprise.) But the first? Come on.

    I've actually noticed this broader phenomenon in a number of Leavers. The Brexit process, the very thing they've craved over the years, is causing them to foam at the mouth. I believe there's something Freudian going on here: despite their protestations to the contrary and all the self denial, deep down Leavers actually adore the EU. Psychologically, Brexit is very difficult for them to handle.
    I think you're psycho-analysing beyond your competence there old chap. Some people seem to be getting a bit hot under the collar about Brexit. The newspapers do it to puff up sales. Those of us who have been confirmed Eurosceptics since forever are much more sanguine. We'll not get sucked into the anti-democratic superstate. But as we go they are revealing themselves for what they are - hostile. I can't blame EU federasts for trying to be beastly to us. We're apostates. The penalty for that is death. At some point of pain or frustration I suspect we may just walk. No trade deal but WTO terms. No exit payment. No security support. It seems some on the EU side are determined to make an enemy of the UK. Which is not really wise.

    The fact that the EU is demanding the exit details/payments before even agreeing a trade deal is a massive problem. So we give up a key negotiating position get, er, nothing.

    The UK cannot cave on this.

    I am wondering if the outcome really is going to be hard Brexit as I don't think the EU will be reasonable enough, and if the government looks like giving in, it will make the usual budget U-turn look like a picnic in comparison.

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