There should have been a general election. Parties could have set out their approach and won a mandate for it.
No need at all. The mandate to LEAVE had been provided but not a mandate on how we should leave (and indeed when).
May, once she had emerged from the Conservative internal hiatus, should have invited Corbyn, Farron, Sturgeon and Farage to an all-party summit to engage them in the process.
The truth is it's Britain leaving the EU, not the Conservative Party and while the Conservative Party speaks for a not inconsiderable part of the British people, it doesn't speak for them all (and indeed a third of Conservative supporters voted REMAIN).
It sounds and looks like the Conservative Party leaving the EU and the rest of us being dragged along behind - May has passed a huge opportunity to build a concensus beyond platitudes by failing to directly involve others in the process. It's wrong that parties representing significant parts of public opinion are excluded simply because they aren't in the Government.
We are all leaving the EU - not just some of us.
Elections settle arguments and create conditions for consensus. Better than cross party stitch ups, or tege personal ego trip we have now.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries. About 30% of those are either kids (under 15) or OAPs. Harder to tell how many students - there are 90k aged between 15-29.
Of those 900k folk, 76% live in just four countries: Spain, France, Ireland and Germany. The bottom 15 EU countries have ~40k UK folk in total.
I don't think it's controversial to say that UK citizens are more likely to work and live elsewhere in the Anglosphere. We're not as parochial as people believe.
Poor old John Humphreys interviewing Manfred Weber this am seemed aghast at the idea that the EU might not be entirely in favour of combined cake ownership & consumption activities. He really needs to look outside his Anglo Welsh sense of Brexit entitlement.
I thought we were fully paid up members until the day we left...
err its a bit like telling your wife/girlfriend/lover that you don't love her anymore and want a divorce.. there won't be any nookie during the divorce period, just increasingly harsh words.
But we still have to keep giving her money as before?
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
I don't think it's controversial to say that UK citizens are more likely to work and live elsewhere in the Anglosphere. We're not as parochial as people believe
< Elections settle arguments and create conditions for consensus. Better than cross party stitch ups, or tege personal ego trip we have now.
Elections rarely settle anything - the arguments go on until circumstances change.
How would May inviting all other party leaders to participate in what is, by most people's viewpoints, a serious national process, be a "cross party stitch up" ?
It would have been politically astute for her to have shared both the credit and the blame but as it is, it's her policy now and the problem will be that because of the lack of ownership of the negotiations, there will be those who will be instinctively hostile to any agreement simply because it's been negotiated by a Conservative Prime Minister eve if said Treaty isn't a bad thing.
I will try to be objective because I want a post-EU future that works for me and for everyone else but the way this has been initiated and constructed has left a bad taste simply because all it needed was a little political nous and courage from May.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
I'm Frances Coppola, writer, singer and twitterer extraordinaire. Coppola Comment is my main blog. I am also the author of the Singing is Easy blog, where I write about singing, teaching and musical expression.
Good morning all. Copious amounts of bollocks being talked this morning.
Intelligence sharing among western powers predates the EU (Google Club de Berne for the links into more formal EU intelligence & CT structures).
We have several information sharing agreements with 2nd parties in Europe. They're not all equal. The UK is far and away the SIGINT heavyweight in the EU, both by virtue of its own capabilities and the indirect access it can provide to other Five Eyes sources. We would never withhold actionable intelligence from our NATO allies ('never' is probably too absolute, but for practical purposes it'll do).
That said, even our intelligence agencies, though they've been protected during some tough SRs, have finite resources and operations are not immune to rationing and prioritisation. We pivoted away from classic Cold War targets in the 90s, and even harder in the '00s.
I could easily believe that we could repeat that pivot, given our new strategic position as 'Global Britain' (heh). That would naturally de-emphasise European operations without in any way being intended as a hostile act.
As somewhat of an expert, would you class the point I make below about the importance of interconnections between intelligence as 'bollocks' ?
I ask as it's an area I'm genuinely interested in.
Intelligence gathering is an exercise in applied graph theory . So I'd say you were along the right lines. However, raw intelligence (more properly 'information') is incredibly 'noisy'. Just gathering (say) bulk comms metadata and blending that with more traditional OSINT/HUMINT/CT sources doesn't buy you _that_ much. You need first class analysis tools, experienced analysts and solid ways of refining that raw information into timely, actionable intelligence.
Thanks. But I guess the best analysis tools and most experienced analysts cannot do much if they don't have the 'information' to analyse.
BTW, it's great to have your input on this sort of thing.
Good morning all. Copious amounts of bollocks being talked this morning.
Intelligence sharing among western powers predates the EU (Google Club de Berne for the links into more formal EU intelligence & CT structures).
We have several information sharing agreements with 2nd parties in Europe. They're not all equal. The UK is far and away the SIGINT heavyweight in the EU, both by virtue of its own capabilities and the indirect access it can provide to other Five Eyes sources. We would never withhold actionable intelligence from our NATO allies ('never' is probably too absolute, but for practical purposes it'll do).
That said, even our intelligence agencies, though they've been protected during some tough SRs, have finite resources and operations are not immune to rationing and prioritisation. We pivoted away from classic Cold War targets in the 90s, and even harder in the '00s.
I could easily believe that we could repeat that pivot, given our new strategic position as 'Global Britain' (heh). That would naturally de-emphasise European operations without in any way being intended as a hostile act.
As somewhat of an expert, would you class the point I make below about the importance of interconnections between intelligence as 'bollocks' ?
I ask as it's an area I'm genuinely interested in.
Intelligence gathering is an exercise in applied graph theory . So I'd say you were along the right lines. However, raw intelligence (more properly 'information') is incredibly 'noisy'. Just gathering (say) bulk comms metadata and blending that with more traditional OSINT/HUMINT/CT sources doesn't buy you _that_ much. You need first class analysis tools, experienced analysts and solid ways of refining that raw information into timely, actionable intelligence.
Thanks. But I guess the best analysis tools and most experienced analysts cannot do much if they don't have the 'information' to analyse.
BTW, it's great to have your input on this sort of thing.
This all comes down to the fact that the EU believe that the UK leaving is both an irrational act, and our problem not theirs. There is no equity.
So they see nothing wrong in being hardline with us, but expect us to be nothing sweetness and light, if we expect anything at all from them, and very grateful for what we do get.
The point of negotiations is to get something from the other side. If Theresa May wants a relatively good outcome from the negotiations, she is going about it the wrong way. I am not entirely convinced she is focused on getting a good deal however. You wouldn't put David Davis in charge if you were.
This kind of frustration will be par for the course from now on. We can't live with the EU and we can't bear the consequences of living without it. We have now have little influence over them and they don't care very much about us.
When did they care very much about us ?
To take one example, Junker was clearly a lousy appointment for European Commission President because of his role in tax avoidance deals for Amazon and MacDonalds.
Cameron was right to oppose him. He lost that vote 26-2.
They cared about us as much as any other member and more than most members, because we had both a vote and considerable influence. We have neither now. It's simply a case of facing reality. If we are happy to cut ourselves off completely from the world it doesn't matter. But if we are to deal with the world that we live in, and I think most of us do want to do so, it requires a different and more difficult approach. Expect to be very frustrated.
This is precisely why I think Brexit was a mistake. If people voted Leave because they don't like the EU much and wanted not to have to deal with them any more, they will be disappointed. The EU will dominate our lives much more outside than it ever did while we were members, because we still have to deal with it.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
This imagines that we are somehow just as dependent and bereft of options as both the hugely indebted Greeks and the banking mired Cypriots. It is consequently fundamentally flawed.
It is good to see that you have cited some clear evidence of how appalling and impoverishing the EU has been for some of it's constituent states though.
It is also clear evidence of how the smaller nations will get whipped into line by the dominant nations within the EU. We are not dealing with a single unified entity.
< Elections settle arguments and create conditions for consensus. Better than cross party stitch ups, or tege personal ego trip we have now.
Elections rarely settle anything - the arguments go on until circumstances change.
How would May inviting all other party leaders to participate in what is, by most people's viewpoints, a serious national process, be a "cross party stitch up" ?
It would have been politically astute for her to have shared both the credit and the blame but as it is, it's her policy now and the problem will be that because of the lack of ownership of the negotiations, there will be those who will be instinctively hostile to any agreement simply because it's been negotiated by a Conservative Prime Minister eve if said Treaty isn't a bad thing.
I will try to be objective because I want a post-EU future that works for me and for everyone else but the way this has been initiated and constructed has left a bad taste simply because all it needed was a little political nous and courage from May.
You're right on your analysis of the problem, but a cross party agreement was never possible. The Lib Dems simply have too few MPs to be relavant. The SNP have their independence agenda. Labour are split and Corbyn I doubt would be up for it.
But if their had been an election, with certain ideas rejected, there might have been a way forward.
We are now engaged in complex negotiations with a soon to be foreign power. It is in all our interests for these to be right.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Morning CR
I do think you've made a rod for your own back with that comment. The telling phrase for me is "it is in all our interests for these to be right".
Yes, wholeheartedly agree - the only problem is the diversity and occasionally mutual exclusivity of those interests. As an example, there is a school of thought that as a successful outward-facing economy, we need to adopt a low-tax low-regulation low-wage model to attract foreign investment.
OTOH, those doing the work might take the view that their quality of life including pay, access to healthcare, protection, holidays and the like need to be respected and indeed enhanced as part of making this country attractive as a place for people to want to come and work.
We are going into, yes, "complex negotiations" with all these different areas of interest and concern having barely had the opportunity to make themselves heard.
Let me make myself clear - I don't trust Theresa May, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox to negotiate a post-EU treaty which will be in my best interests. Ideally, in my view, we'd have an all-party approach or at least have full all-party sign up to the principal objectives and "red lines". That should have been the aim of the past nine months instead of the nonsense we've endured - we've wasted valuable time.
Wise words, Stodge. You are of course right.
May doesn't even have an all-the-Tory-party sign-up! After the Lib.Dems, some of the most vociferous opponents of the approach being followed are Tory Peers, e.g. Michael Heseltine or Chris Patten, plus Tory MPs, e.g. Stephen Dorrell, Ken Clarke.
Is Stephen Dorrell still an MP? I'd forgotten all about him.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
This imagines that we are somehow just as dependent and bereft of options as both the hugely indebted Greeks and the banking mired Cypriots. It is consequently fundamentally flawed.
It is good to see that you have cited some clear evidence of how appalling and impoverishing the EU has been for some of it's constituent states though.
It is also clear evidence of how the smaller nations will get whipped into line by the dominant nations within the EU. We are not dealing with a single unified entity.
The obvious difference is that Greece was bankrupt, and financially dependent on those it was negotiating with. We aren't. Even then, Greece did have an alternative. It could have left the Euro.
There was publication overnight of some Prof Curtice led research in Scotland relating to Brexit conducted by Nat Cen Social research. They largely want the same relationship with the EU that their fellow Britons do.
The results will doubtless come as a surprise to many. For it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement. As a result, it seems that their position is much closer to that of the UK government than that of the Scottish Government.
Another nail in the "Scotland is different" coffin.....
Yes we only save our differences for "real" voting not bollox surveys and made up merde. 62% says different to that pile of steaming dung
I'm pretty sure suggesting polls from reputable companies are 'bollox' or 'made up merde' is a big no-no on here.
Course it's not bollox.
'As many as 47% think that ‘Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU’, while just slightly more, 51%, believe that ‘Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay’
That works out as pretty close to a 'decisive' 52-48.
Good morning all. Copious amounts of bollocks being talked this morning.
Intelligence sharing among western powers predates the EU (Google Club de Berne for the links into more formal EU intelligence & CT structures).
We have several information sharing agreements with 2nd parties in Europe. They're not all equal. The UK is far and away the SIGINT heavyweight in the EU, both by virtue of its own capabilities and the indirect access it can provide to other Five Eyes sources. We would never withhold actionable intelligence from our NATO allies ('never' is probably too absolute, but for practical purposes it'll do).
That said, even our intelligence agencies, though they've been protected during some tough SRs, have finite resources and operations are not immune to rationing and prioritisation. We pivoted away from classic Cold War targets in the 90s, and even harder in the '00s.
I could easily believe that we could repeat that pivot, given our new strategic position as 'Global Britain' (heh). That would naturally de-emphasise European operations without in any way being intended as a hostile act.
As somewhat of an expert, would you class the point I make below about the importance of interconnections between intelligence as 'bollocks' ?
I ask as it's an area I'm genuinely interested in.
Intelligence gathering is an exercise in applied graph theory . So I'd say you were along the right lines. However, raw intelligence (more properly 'information') is incredibly 'noisy'. Just gathering (say) bulk comms metadata and blending that with more traditional OSINT/HUMINT/CT sources doesn't buy you _that_ much. You need first class analysis tools, experienced analysts and solid ways of refining that raw information into timely, actionable intelligence.
Thanks. But I guess the best analysis tools and most experienced analysts cannot do much if they don't have the 'information' to analyse.
BTW, it's great to have your input on this sort of thing.
You're very welcome. One of the glories of PB that sets it head and shoulders above other boards is this; there is usually at least one poster who knows what's what on almost every topic. It makes wading through all the bile and emotional incontinence worthwhile .
This all comes down to the fact that the EU believe that the UK leaving is both an irrational act, and our problem not theirs. There is no equity.
So they see nothing wrong in being hardline with us, but expect us to be nothing sweetness and light, if we expect anything at all from them, and very grateful for what we do get.
The point of negotiations is to get something from the other side. If Theresa May wants a relatively good outcome from the negotiations, she is going about it the wrong way. I am not entirely convinced she is focused on getting a good deal however. You wouldn't put David Davis in charge if you were.
This kind of frustration will be par for the course from now on. We can't live with the EU and we can't bear the consequences of living without it. We have now have little influence over them and they don't care very much about us.
When did they care very much about us ?
To take one example, Junker was clearly a lousy appointment for European Commission President because of his role in tax avoidance deals for Amazon and MacDonalds.
Cameron was right to oppose him. He lost that vote 26-2.
On Juncker's appointment. In a multilateral organisation, you win some and you lose some, and you have a good chance of avoiding things you REALLY dislike. Juncker's appointment was something Cameron was happy to trade for other decisions more important to him. On the whole you will win more than you lose, because the system is set up that way. Outside the organisation you may have little real discretion in avoiding things you dislike and will win few things you do want.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
Good morning all. Copious amounts of bollocks being talked this morning.
Intelligence sharing among western powers predates the EU (Google Club de Berne for the links into more formal EU intelligence & CT structures).
We have several information sharing agreements with 2nd parties in Europe. They're not all equal. The UK is far and away the SIGINT heavyweight in the EU, both by virtue of its own capabilities and the indirect access it can provide to other Five Eyes sources. We would never withhold actionable intelligence from our NATO allies ('never' is probably too absolute, but for practical purposes it'll do).
That said, even our intelligence agencies, though they've been protected during some tough SRs, have finite resources and operations are not immune to rationing and prioritisation. We pivoted away from classic Cold War targets in the 90s, and even harder in the '00s.
I could easily believe that we could repeat that pivot, given our new strategic position as 'Global Britain' (heh). That would naturally de-emphasise European operations without in any way being intended as a hostile act.
As somewhat of an expert, would you class the point I make below about the importance of interconnections between intelligence as 'bollocks' ?
I ask as it's an area I'm genuinely interested in.
Intelligence gathering is an exercise in applied graph theory . So I'd say you were along the right lines. However, raw intelligence (more properly 'information') is incredibly 'noisy'. Just gathering (say) bulk comms metadata and blending that with more traditional OSINT/HUMINT/CT sources doesn't buy you _that_ much. You need first class analysis tools, experienced analysts and solid ways of refining that raw information into timely, actionable intelligence.
Thanks. But I guess the best analysis tools and most experienced analysts cannot do much if they don't have the 'information' to analyse.
BTW, it's great to have your input on this sort of thing.
That presumes we require their cooperation......
In many cases we will not (and the opposite applies as well). But the idea that they won't have any information that might be useful to us is ... interesting. As an example, someone becomes of interest to us. We know he went to Germany and Italy six months ago and stayed for three months, but have no idea what he did there because he was not of interest at that time.
Germany and Italy may well have information of use to us, showing what the individual did whilst in their countries.
As ever, I bow to those on here who are more knowledgeable on such matters ...
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
There was publication overnight of some Prof Curtice led research in Scotland relating to Brexit conducted by Nat Cen Social research. They largely want the same relationship with the EU that their fellow Britons do.
The results will doubtless come as a surprise to many. For it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement. As a result, it seems that their position is much closer to that of the UK government than that of the Scottish Government.
Another nail in the "Scotland is different" coffin.....
Yes we only save our differences for "real" voting not bollox surveys and made up merde. 62% says different to that pile of steaming dung
I'm pretty sure suggesting polls from reputable companies are 'bollox' or 'made up merde' is a big no-no on here.
Course it's not bollox.
'As many as 47% think that ‘Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU’, while just slightly more, 51%, believe that ‘Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay’
That works out as pretty close to a 'decisive' 52-48.
The sample they worked with self declared as 66% remain, and 48% Yes - so swing it 3%-4% to reality.
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
Listening to business news over the last few days it is interesting how many are saying they are sourcing their supplies within the UK since the pounds devaluation. A florist business has stopped much of their flower supplies from Holland and was obtaining it's supplies in the UK.
A business representative said there has been a big move to reducing dependence on imported goods as more businesses turn to home supply.
This must be a good thing and must help our trade balance.
Reading the earlier comments it seems the remain and leave camp are continuing their battle against it each other in what is now a stale argument.
Theresa May seems to have been well received in the UK and after spending 3 hours 11 mins at the dispatch box answering 113 MP's in the longest session by any PM in recent times and then facing up Andrew Neil there can be no doubt she has the stamina and is up for the positive vision of the UK.
There was publication overnight of some Prof Curtice led research in Scotland relating to Brexit conducted by Nat Cen Social research. They largely want the same relationship with the EU that their fellow Britons do.
The results will doubtless come as a surprise to many. For it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement. As a result, it seems that their position is much closer to that of the UK government than that of the Scottish Government.
Another nail in the "Scotland is different" coffin.....
Yes we only save our differences for "real" voting not bollox surveys and made up merde. 62% says different to that pile of steaming dung
I'm pretty sure suggesting polls from reputable companies are 'bollox' or 'made up merde' is a big no-no on here.
Course it's not bollox.
'As many as 47% think that ‘Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU’, while just slightly more, 51%, believe that ‘Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay’
That works out as pretty close to a 'decisive' 52-48.
The sample they worked with self declared as 66% remain, and 48% Yes - so swing it 3%-4% to reality.
Lol.
'This poll definitely isn't bollox, EXCEPT FOR THIS BIT OBVIOUSLY.'
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
So no change for UKIP then.
Part of me suspects that their voters don't really care about that sort of thing from their MEPs!
David Davis sounding reasonable on LBC, seems to be the most impressive of the Brexiteer ministers. I think it's been recognised by May as well - Bojo and Fox are thankfully nowhere to be seen these days.
This all comes down to the fact that the EU believe that the UK leaving is both an irrational act, and our problem not theirs. There is no equity.
So they see nothing wrong in being hardline with us, but expect us to be nothing sweetness and light, if we expect anything at all from them, and very grateful for what we do get.
The point of negotiations is to get something from the other side. If Theresa May wants a relatively good outcome from the negotiations, she is going about it the wrong way. I am not entirely convinced she is focused on getting a good deal however. You wouldn't put David Davis in charge if you were.
This kind of frustration will be par for the course from now on. We can't live with the EU and we can't bear the consequences of living without it. We have now have little influence over them and they don't care very much about us.
When did they care very much about us ?
To take one example, Junker was clearly a lousy appointment for European Commission President because of his role in tax avoidance deals for Amazon and MacDonalds.
Cameron was right to oppose him. He lost that vote 26-2.
On Juncker's appointment. In a multilateral organisation, you win some and you lose some, and you have a good chance of avoiding things you REALLY dislike. Juncker's appointment was something Cameron was happy to trade for other decisions more important to him. On the whole you will win more than you lose, because the system is set up that way. Outside the organisation you may have little real discretion in avoiding things you dislike and will win few things you do want.
Genuinely curious -- what is it we avoided that we would "REALLY dislike”.
“You win some, you lose some” Fine, I am curious to know what we won when we got Junker.
(I think you have a very bleak view of the EU, and you’re a Remainer!)
There was publication overnight of some Prof Curtice led research in Scotland relating to Brexit conducted by Nat Cen Social research. They largely want the same relationship with the EU that their fellow Britons do.
The results will doubtless come as a surprise to many. For it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement. As a result, it seems that their position is much closer to that of the UK government than that of the Scottish Government.
Another nail in the "Scotland is different" coffin.....
Yes we only save our differences for "real" voting not bollox surveys and made up merde. 62% says different to that pile of steaming dung
I'm pretty sure suggesting polls from reputable companies are 'bollox' or 'made up merde' is a big no-no on here.
Course it's not bollox.
'As many as 47% think that ‘Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU’, while just slightly more, 51%, believe that ‘Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay’
That works out as pretty close to a 'decisive' 52-48.
The sample they worked with self declared as 66% remain, and 48% Yes - so swing it 3%-4% to reality.
Lol.
'This poll definitely isn't bollox, EXCEPT FOR THIS BIT OBVIOUSLY.'
They are Curtice's description of the sample (paraphrased).
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
This imagines that we are somehow just as dependent and bereft of options as both the hugely indebted Greeks and the banking mired Cypriots. It is consequently fundamentally flawed.
It is good to see that you have cited some clear evidence of how appalling and impoverishing the EU has been for some of it's constituent states though.
It is also clear evidence of how the smaller nations will get whipped into line by the dominant nations within the EU. We are not dealing with a single unified entity.
The obvious difference is that Greece was bankrupt, and financially dependent on those it was negotiating with. We aren't. Even then, Greece did have an alternative. It could have left the Euro.
Not to mention that Greece has had huge amounts of its debt written off - I think someone said it was £60bn - with doubtless much more to follow.
Greece is now having its lifestyle reduced to its wealth creating capacity - it had a couple of decades living it up on borrowed money and handouts.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up the second sentence. The first sentence hardly needs substantiating, although I'm sure you'll be able to find a few Brits who say they want a backward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
Listening to business news over the last few days it is interesting how many are saying they are sourcing their supplies within the UK since the pounds devaluation. A florist business has stopped much of their flower supplies from Holland and was obtaining it's supplies in the UK.
A business representative said there has been a big move to reducing dependence on imported goods as more businesses turn to home supply.
This must be a good thing and must help our trade balance.
Reading the earlier comments it seems the remain and leave camp are continuing their battle against it each other in what is now a stale argument.
Theresa May seems to have been well received in the UK and after spending 3 hours 11 mins at the dispatch box answering 113 MP's in the longest session by any PM in recent times and then facing up Andrew Neil there can be no doubt she has the stamina and is up for the positive vision of the UK.
Interesting times ahead
Yes, it is fine for the moment. Note Richard Nabavi's point about consumption being bought forward which should make the next two years go relatively swimmingly as well.
May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
Just to check I'm following this process properly, the UK has painted a picture of the settlement we seek in the A50 letter, and has hinted at the concessions and sanctions we have at our disposal... we now await a response that will state the proposed terms of separation but not the trade barriers that the EU intends to erect in order to demonstrate that the UK is worse off as a non-member, apparently Ms Merkel says that this can't be discussed until the terms of separation are agreed...
... will the UK accept the two-step approach and quickly negotiate a set of principles to fix the financial settlement, if not an actual amount and payments schedule, so that the new barriers to trade can start to be be negotiated, or will the PM attempt to link the negotiations together? And, if so, how might she do so successfully?
It is mind boggling that some people seriously seem to believe that the UK will actively help terrorist organisations and enemy powers in order to get one over long-time friends and allies in a trade negotiation.
I think most of the objection to the UK using its strongest card in the negotiation is from those who object to the UK Leaving in principle.
So you are happy to use the security of European AND UK citizens as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. Dear dear.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
I would have thought that's pretty well the only thing MEP's do.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
We are net contributors, so all they are doing is clawing a percentage of our own money back. I think they should be claiming more, to be honest.
David Davis sounding reasonable on LBC, seems to be the most impressive of the Brexiteer ministers. I think it's been recognised by May as well - Bojo and Fox are thankfully nowhere to be seen these days.
Perhaps they are working on detail rather than appearing on the media?
We are now engaged in complex negotiations with a soon to be foreign power. It is in all our interests for these to be right.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Morning CR
I do think you've made a rod for your own back with that comment. The telling phrase for me is "it is in all our interests for these to be right".
Yes, wholeheartedly agree - the only problem is the diversity and occasionally mutual exclusivity of those interests. As an example, there is a school of thought that as a successful outward-facing economy, we need to adopt a low-tax low-regulation low-wage model to attract foreign investment.
OTOH, those doing the work might take the view that their quality of life including pay, access to healthcare, protection, holidays and the like need to be respected and indeed enhanced as part of making this country attractive as a place for people to want to come and work.
We are going into, yes, "complex negotiations" with all these different areas of interest and concern having barely had the opportunity to make themselves heard.
Let me make myself clear - I don't trust Theresa May, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox to negotiate a post-EU treaty which will be in my best interests. Ideally, in my view, we'd have an all-party approach or at least have full all-party sign up to the principal objectives and "red lines". That should have been the aim of the past nine months instead of the nonsense we've endured - we've wasted valuable time.
Wise words, Stodge. You are of course right.
May doesn't even have an all-the-Tory-party sign-up! After the Lib.Dems, some of the most vociferous opponents of the approach being followed are Tory Peers, e.g. Michael Heseltine or Chris Patten, plus Tory MPs, e.g. Stephen Dorrell, Ken Clarke.
Is Stephen Dorrell still an MP? I'd forgotten all about him.
No, he stood down from parliament in 2015.
He is chairman of the "European Movement" (whatever that is) though.
It is mind boggling that some people seriously seem to believe that the UK will actively help terrorist organisations and enemy powers in order to get one over long-time friends and allies in a trade negotiation.
I think most of the objection to the UK using its strongest card in the negotiation is from those who object to the UK Leaving in principle.
So you are happy to use the security of European AND UK citizens as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. Dear dear.
Well, yes. We do this every time we set a budget: how much on health, how much on defence, how much tax etc. If the rest of the EU doesn't think they are important then we won't get much for it of course, and judging by how much most countries put into their defence and security budgets I'm not that hopeful.
David Davis sounding reasonable on LBC, seems to be the most impressive of the Brexiteer ministers. I think it's been recognised by May as well - Bojo and Fox are thankfully nowhere to be seen these days.
Perhaps they are working on detail rather than appearing on the media?
Maybe they are sporting hangovers, bruises and injuries from being hit by numerous champagne British Sparkling Wine corks at the Big British Brexit Party?
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
Trump's attitude to Merkel and Germany is very frosty and there could be real friction over defence spending, trade tariffs and climate change between the two over the next year or two
I spoke to an MEP the other day, they are basically marking time and doing very little work, just claiming as much as they can for themselves and their support staff. What a disgraceful waste of money this all is.
We are net contributors, so all they are doing is clawing a percentage of our own money back. I think they should be claiming more, to be honest.
Fair point.
The bigger picture is what an absolutely pointless waste of money it all this, despite the bleating from Remoaners I'm confident if we had another referendum tomorrow Leave would win by a larger margin.
Genuinely curious -- what is it we avoided that we would "REALLY dislike”.
“You win some, you lose some” Fine, I am curious to know what we won when we got Junker.
(I think you have a very bleak view of the EU, and you’re a Remainer!)
A lot of the things are technical, on finance regulation for example. No European army was one. The UK got a raft of opt-outs on the Euro, Schengen etc, which didn't stop those things going ahead but allowed the UK to get the benefits of membership without having to subscribe to things it didn't like.
The EU acts in the collective interests of its members, which is what I would expect from any organisation. Where those interests diverge it tries to accommodate each member through horse-trading. In general, I think the EU is a force for the good. It provides a forum where the disparate nations of Europe can thrash out their differences and where there is no alternative to it. And because it promotes liberal values and a rules-based system for the world, which are my values. Nobody of course loves a bureaucracy, but I am not overly fond of Westminster or Holyrood either, which were my other representatives. As far as the referendum was concerned, I don't think Leavers were stupid or even wrong to vote the way they did. However I do think they mostly voted on a set of false premises, which are going to unwind in ways that damage Britain. This discussion demonstrates the contradictions.
We are now engaged in complex negotiations with a soon to be foreign power. It is in all our interests for these to be right.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Morning CR
I do think you've made a rod for your own back with that comment. The telling phrase for me is "it is in all our interests for these to be right".
Yes, wholeheartedly agree - the only problem is the diversity and occasionally mutual exclusivity of those interests. As an example, there is a school of thought that as a successful outward-facing economy, we need to adopt a low-tax low-regulation low-wage model to attract foreign investment.
OTOH, those doing the work might take the view that their quality of life including pay, access to healthcare, protection, holidays and the like need to be respected and indeed enhanced as part of making this country attractive as a place for people to want to come and work.
We are going into, yes, "complex negotiations" with all these different areas of interest and concern having barely had the opportunity to make themselves heard.
Let me make myself clear - I don't trust Theresa May, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox to negotiate a post-EU treaty which will be in my best interests. Ideally, in my view, we'd have an all-party approach or at least have full all-party sign up to the principal objectives and "red lines". That should have been the aim of the past nine months instead of the nonsense we've endured - we've wasted valuable time.
Wise words, Stodge. You are of course right.
May doesn't even have an all-the-Tory-party sign-up! After the Lib.Dems, some of the most vociferous opponents of the approach being followed are Tory Peers, e.g. Michael Heseltine or Chris Patten, plus Tory MPs, e.g. Stephen Dorrell, Ken Clarke.
Is Stephen Dorrell still an MP? I'd forgotten all about him.
No, he stood down from parliament in 2015.
He is chairman of the "European Movement" (whatever that is) though.
Ken Clarke seems to have disappeared. Does anyone know if he is unwell or very stressed over the EU, limiting his public appearances
David Davis sounding reasonable on LBC, seems to be the most impressive of the Brexiteer ministers. I think it's been recognised by May as well - Bojo and Fox are thankfully nowhere to be seen these days.
I always said David Davis would be better than people expected in this role. He spent all those years in the political wilderness and then came back to do one of the most important jobs in public life in the past 50 years.
He'll not waste the opportunity to leave his mark.
As for Boris and Fox... They haven't been *that* bad have they? Especially Boris who has generally performed his task as foreign secretary in a reasonable way (and better than most people thought he would when Mrs May appointed him to the role) ?
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
Theresa May: "The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market... we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy."
Doesn't support previous assertion......I thought you might have some, you know, polling data, to back you up.....
I was backing up thekward, poor, non-European country.
Tell it to the Greeks.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro. Leading the UK over the cliff edge onto a pile of jagged rocks is not delivering the best outcome for the UK. She would pay the price for that folly at the ballot box in 2020, or earlier if she lost the support of her (already restive) back-bench MPs. She has no choice but to try to negotiate some kind of soft landing. So the attempt to stifle Parliament is, once again, wrong. She must be chained to the negotiating table, even if it takes a Parliamentary veto to do it.
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
Trump's attitude to Merkel and Germany is very frosty and there could be real friction over defence spending, trade tariffs and climate change between the two over the next year or two
I am more worried about the sort of deal Trump will offer us after Brexit. He does not seem to care a monkeys about anything or anyone outside the USA. My hope is that he does not last the full term.
We are now engaged in complex negotiations with a soon to be foreign power. It is in all our interests for these to be right.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Morning CR
I do think you've made a rod for your own back with that comment. The telling phrase for me is "it is in all our interests for these to be right".
Yes, wholeheartedly agree - the only problem is the diversity and occasionally mutual exclusivity of those interests. As an example, there is a school of thought that as a successful outward-facing economy, we need to adopt a low-tax low-regulation low-wage model to attract foreign investment.
OTOH, those doing the work might take the view that their quality of life including pay, access to healthcare, protection, holidays and the like need to be respected and indeed enhanced as part of making this country attractive as a place for people to want to come and work.
We are going into, yes, "complex negotiations" with all these different areas of interest and concern having barely had the opportunity to make themselves heard.
Let me make myself clear - I don't trust Theresa May, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox to negotiate a post-EU treaty which will be in my best interests. Ideally, in my view, we'd have an all-party approach or at least have full all-party sign up to the principal objectives and "red lines". That should have been the aim of the past nine months instead of the nonsense we've endured - we've wasted valuable time.
Wise words, Stodge. You are of course right.
May doesn't even have an all-the-Tory-party sign-up! After the Lib.Dems, some of the most vociferous opponents of the approach being followed are Tory Peers, e.g. Michael Heseltine or Chris Patten, plus Tory MPs, e.g. Stephen Dorrell, Ken Clarke.
Is Stephen Dorrell still an MP? I'd forgotten all about him.
No, he stood down from parliament in 2015.
He is chairman of the "European Movement" (whatever that is) though.
Ken Clarke seems to have disappeared. Does anyone know if he is unwell or very stressed over the EU, limiting his public appearances
Dunno about Ken. Hezza was on Newsnight last night though.. Utterly, utterly destroyed and bereft.
I don't think the two are exclusive. You could not be a supporter of the EU while still voting remain.
I think a large number of Remain supporters saw very clearly the faults in the EU and how it was in many ways sub-optimal, and yet still believed that, like democracy, it was the best of the available alternatives.
I don't think the two are exclusive. You could not be a supporter of the EU while still voting remain.
I think a large number of Remain supporters saw very clearly the faults in the EU and how it was in many ways sub-optimal, and yet still believed that, like democracy, it was the best of the available alternatives.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Go and do a Kristallnacht on Ronnie Scott's windows.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
Trump's attitude to Merkel and Germany is very frosty and there could be real friction over defence spending, trade tariffs and climate change between the two over the next year or two
I am more worried about the sort of deal Trump will offer us after Brexit. He does not seem to care a monkeys about anything or anyone outside the USA. My hope is that he does not last the full term.
Pence is saner, but policies are just as bad if not worse.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
Trump's attitude to Merkel and Germany is very frosty and there could be real friction over defence spending, trade tariffs and climate change between the two over the next year or two
I am more worried about the sort of deal Trump will offer us after Brexit. He does not seem to care a monkeys about anything or anyone outside the USA. My hope is that he does not last the full term.
It does seem that he is being curtailed by congress and maybe that will be the way of his presidency. I do think he will serve the term, subject to his health, and he will be controversial with trade policy and climate change but to a degree restricted from his worse excesses
David Davis sounding reasonable on LBC, seems to be the most impressive of the Brexiteer ministers. I think it's been recognised by May as well - Bojo and Fox are thankfully nowhere to be seen these days.
Perhaps they are working on detail rather than appearing on the media?
I'm willing to suspend disbelief sufficiently to accept Fox may be working behind the scenes. The idea that Boris is working on the details is a step too far.
In particular, the reference to weakened security cooperation, seemingly juxtaposed with trade, has caused concern that the government is seeking to antagonise the EU or double-down on its warning that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” I don’t think this is the case. Indeed, the Prime Minister is right to point out that in the event of ‘no deal’, the effect on the UK-EU relations would by no means by limited to trade disruption. The legal framework of EU membership means that the UK currently participates in the EU’s law enforcement agency Europol, is party to the EU Passenger Name Record (PNR) data-sharing directive, and applies the European Arrest Warrant (EAW), to name just a few initiatives. If the UK leaves the EU without agreeing any arrangements for participation in these activities, it is clear that both sides will suffer diminished capability in security.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
Listening to business news over the last few days it is interesting how many are saying they are sourcing their supplies within the UK since the pounds devaluation. A florist business has stopped much of their flower supplies from Holland and was obtaining it's supplies in the UK.
A business representative said there has been a big move to reducing dependence on imported goods as more businesses turn to home supply.
This must be a good thing and must help our trade balance.
In amongst the theorising;
On the continent, European farmers’ group Copa and Cogeca said it ‘regretted’ the UK’s decision to launch Brexit proceedings and claimed farmers and agri-businesses in the EU and UK would be ‘hit hard’.
The group pointed out the UK was a net importer of agri-food products and a net contributor to the EU budget - adding new ways to maintain the Common Agricultural Policy budget must be found.
Copa and Cogeca secretary-general Pekka Pesonen said: “Copa and Cogeca have serious concerns about the potential trade and budget impact of Brexit on European farmers and their cooperatives. We believe that farmers and their families should not have to pay the price of Brexit.”
----
The same things are being said in large parts of the continent.
The more focused minds, rather than the ideological ones, know full well that if we start zero rating particular products that are readily available on a global basis that the europeans are about to take a big whack.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
My God, the cloud must be really black if the silver lining is 'that Trump was elected'.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Go and do a Kristallnacht on Ronnie Scott's windows.
Reichstag fire a few Wetherspoons first, then everyone wins.
Genuinely curious -- what is it we avoided that we would "REALLY dislike”.
“You win some, you lose some” Fine, I am curious to know what we won when we got Junker.
(I think you have a very bleak view of the EU, and you’re a Remainer!)
A lot of the things are technical, on finance regulation for example. No European army was one. The UK got a raft of opt-outs on the Euro, Schengen etc, which didn't stop those things going ahead but allowed the UK to get the benefits of membership without having to subscribe to things it didn't like.
The EU acts in the collective interests of its members, which is what I would expect from any organisation. Where those interests diverge it tries to accommodate each member through horse-trading. In general, I think the EU is a force for the good. It provides a forum where the disparate nations of Europe can thrash out their differences and where there is no alternative to it. And because it promotes liberal values and a rules-based system for the world, which are my values. Nobody of course loves a bureaucracy, but I am not overly fond of Westminster or Holyrood either, which were my other representatives. As far as the referendum was concerned, I don't think Leavers were stupid or even wrong to vote the way they did. However I do think they mostly voted on a set of false premises, which are going to unwind in ways that damage Britain. This discussion demonstrates the contradictions.
I think my views are close to Stodge’s.
I think the EU has acted to make the rich parts of Europe even wealthier, and poor parts of Europe even poorer.
Follow on from previous comment: this looks reasonable to me and seems to put things in a different light. How impartial are Open Europe though? I've only just found the site, and as that was via Guido, I'm a bit suspicious...
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
Trump's attitude to Merkel and Germany is very frosty and there could be real friction over defence spending, trade tariffs and climate change between the two over the next year or two
I am more worried about the sort of deal Trump will offer us after Brexit. He does not seem to care a monkeys about anything or anyone outside the USA. My hope is that he does not last the full term.
The odds on Trump leaving office before the year end are astoundingly short in my opinion. I'm a layer.
If there is a transitional deal, whereby we won't have left, who wins "The Bet"?
If the transitional deal really does mean that we haven't left (i.e. the date of entry into force of the leaving agreement is postponed) then I would win. If there's a fudge that means we leave officially but only on paper then I lose, although I can't see how that could work.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
I wonder if there is a secret hope in Downing Street that MLP does win the election rather than Macron. A potential frexit would change the game entirely, with 2 powerful states looking to negotiate a new looser settlement with the EU. On the other hand it could destroy the EU entirely, which is not in the UK's interests. I think on balance the negative effects for the UK of an FN France in global terms outweigh the potential gains of a simultaneous frexibrexi negotiation - but as you point out, Trump has probably strengthened our hand somewhat, MLP would too.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
It is mind boggling that some people seriously seem to believe that the UK will actively help terrorist organisations and enemy powers in order to get one over long-time friends and allies in a trade negotiation.
I think most of the objection to the UK using its strongest card in the negotiation is from those who object to the UK Leaving in principle.
So you are happy to use the security of European AND UK citizens as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. Dear dear.
If we leave out the lazy and inaccurate metaphor of "bargaining chip" (one gambles with chips, but why would anyone bargain with them?) what you are saying is "you are attempting to negotiate a treaty relating partly to matters of security". So either such treaties should not exist, or your poiint rather vanishes. |You are like people who theatrically ask "Can you put a value on human life?" to which the answer is yes, you can do exactly that when weighing up the merits of a plan to frinstance improve road safety: about £1m per head is the current going rate I believe.
If there is a transitional deal, whereby we won't have left, who wins "The Bet"?
If the transitional deal really does mean that we haven't left (i.e. the date of entry into force of the leaving agreement is postponed) then I would win. If there's a fudge that means we leave officially but only on paper then I lose, although I can't see how that could work.
Any transitional deal would surely be not leaving by any measure given that we would presumably be forbidden from signing new trade deals with Tonga, etc, until the transition period had elapsed.
Ruth Davidson @RuthDavidsonMSP Next time @NicolaSturgeon asks "what sort of country do we want to be?" The answer is "one incredibly similar to the rest of the UK, thanks" What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not.
Most people in the UK want the same thing - to live in modern, prosperous, European countries. Sadly the UK state is no longer able to deliver that promise.
Citation required
The Eurostat numbers don't really support the assertion. There are about 900k UK folk resident in EU countries.
So of the "5 million Brits abroad" under 1 million are in the EU.
The UN report total is 1,088,731. Anyway, the mail article doesn't say anything about the (edit: *total*) number of UK residents in EU countries specifically.
Let me make myself clear: I consider anyone egging on, or aiding and abetting the EU, to encourage them to make an example of the UK to be directly working against our national interest.
Go and do a Kristallnacht on Ronnie Scott's windows.
Still on that. ROFL :-). Proverbs 26:11 is the correct one, think.
It is worth noting that the claims by the Chief Exec of Ronnie Scott's about "attacks on his business" were a pile of self-indulgent pish, since Brexit generated something of a mini tourist boom to London. He should be grateful.
Follow on from previous comment: this looks reasonable to me and seems to put things in a different light. How impartial are Open Europe though? I've only just found the site, and as that was via Guido, I'm a bit suspicious...
OE's daily shake-up seems fairly even-handed and quite informative. They tend to be constructive.
If there is a transitional deal, whereby we won't have left, who wins "The Bet"?
If the transitional deal really does mean that we haven't left (i.e. the date of entry into force of the leaving agreement is postponed) then I would win. If there's a fudge that means we leave officially but only on paper then I lose, although I can't see how that could work.
Surely we leave in March 2019 and any transitional deal will be a mechanism for normalising trade between the UK and the EU
'Ken Clarke seems to have disappeared. Does anyone know if he is unwell or very stressed over the EU, limiting his public appearances'
Dunno about Ken. Hezza was on Newsnight last night though.. Utterly, utterly destroyed and bereft.
Well worth a watch if you didn't see it.
I did see Hezza interviewed by Adam Boulton and he was so bitter and inconsolable
I liked Hezza in his day but he did have a problem with Margaret T and it seems Theresa has come along to haunt him further
It really is so sad
I used to like Heseltine - his conference speeches used to be barn-stormers - until he came along to "help" the volunteers in an ultra-marginal seat I was working in '87 - and basically said that all the effort in delivering leaflets and knocking on doors made not a blind bit of difference to the overall result. What a way to gee up the troops. Wazzock.
One slice of good fortune for us was that Trump was elected and not Clinton. Our position would have been weaker still with Clinton in the White House.
I wonder if there is a secret hope in Downing Street that MLP does win the election rather than Macron. A potential frexit would change the game entirely, with 2 powerful states looking to negotiate a new looser settlement with the EU. On the other hand it could destroy the EU entirely, which is not in the UK's interests. I think on balance the negative effects for the UK of an FN France in global terms outweigh the potential gains of a simultaneous frexibrexi negotiation - but as you point out, Trump has probably strengthened our hand somewhat, MLP would too.
Yes MLP would strengthen our hand but she won't win.
I did see Hezza interviewed by Adam Boulton and he was so bitter and inconsolable
I liked Hezza in his day but he did have a problem with Margaret T and it seems Theresa has come along to haunt him further
It really is so sad
The strange thing is, Europe aside, May sounds a lot like Heseltine. Hammond's Budget could have come straight from a putative Heseltine Government.
I know a lot of people like to equate May with Thatcher - May is far more the interventionist, corporatist Conservative believing the State can and has to intervene to get things done.
If there is a transitional deal, whereby we won't have left, who wins "The Bet"?
If the transitional deal really does mean that we haven't left (i.e. the date of entry into force of the leaving agreement is postponed) then I would win. If there's a fudge that means we leave officially but only on paper then I lose, although I can't see how that could work.
Surely we leave in March 2019 and any transitional deal will be a mechanism for normalising trade between the UK and the EU
We will not be able to negotiate, or at least implement any third party trade deal during the transitional period. Hence it will to all intents and purposes be us not having left.
I used to like Heseltine - his conference speeches used to be barn-stormers - until he came along to "help" the volunteers in an ultra-marginal seat I was working in '87 - and basically said that all the effort in delivering leaflets and knocking on doors made not a blind bit of difference to the overall result. What a way to gee up the troops. Wazzock.
He and Ken Clarke have always loathed their own Party and had a general disdain for the membership that makes up the Party (in the same way Blair and his ilk are ashamed of working class Labour supporters)
In 1987 he was probably hankering for Maggie to lose (a lot of people thought the Parliament would be Hung in '87) so he could knife her and take over...
Follow on from previous comment: this looks reasonable to me and seems to put things in a different light. How impartial are Open Europe though? I've only just found the site, and as that was via Guido, I'm a bit suspicious...
OE's daily shake-up seems fairly even-handed and quite informative. They tend to be constructive.
Thanks. I voted remain in the end, but nearly abstained and if asked again would probably change my mind. Both campaigns were off-putting and while I did not believe the sunny uplands promised by Leave, I don't expect the catastrophe promised by Remain either. The somewhat polarised views on PB are entertaining me while I'm recuperating, but often show more heat than light and I'd like a source which at least tries to be balanced.
Comments
Of those 900k folk, 76% live in just four countries: Spain, France, Ireland and Germany. The bottom 15 EU countries have ~40k UK folk in total.
I don't think it's controversial to say that UK citizens are more likely to work and live elsewhere in the Anglosphere. We're not as parochial as people believe.
Source:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/whatinformationisthereonbritishmigrantslivingineurope/jan2017
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
http://www.coppolacomment.com/2017/03/game-theory-in-brexitland.html
How would May inviting all other party leaders to participate in what is, by most people's viewpoints, a serious national process, be a "cross party stitch up" ?
It would have been politically astute for her to have shared both the credit and the blame but as it is, it's her policy now and the problem will be that because of the lack of ownership of the negotiations, there will be those who will be instinctively hostile to any agreement simply because it's been negotiated by a Conservative Prime Minister eve if said Treaty isn't a bad thing.
I will try to be objective because I want a post-EU future that works for me and for everyone else but the way this has been initiated and constructed has left a bad taste simply because all it needed was a little political nous and courage from May.
I'm Frances Coppola, writer, singer and twitterer extraordinaire. Coppola Comment is my main blog. I am also the author of the Singing is Easy blog, where I write about singing, teaching and musical expression.
BTW, it's great to have your input on this sort of thing.
This is precisely why I think Brexit was a mistake. If people voted Leave because they don't like the EU much and wanted not to have to deal with them any more, they will be disappointed. The EU will dominate our lives much more outside than it ever did while we were members, because we still have to deal with it.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/#6bf5bc777177
It is good to see that you have cited some clear evidence of how appalling and impoverishing the EU has been for some of it's constituent states though.
It is also clear evidence of how the smaller nations will get whipped into line by the dominant nations within the EU. We are not dealing with a single unified entity.
But if their had been an election, with certain ideas rejected, there might have been a way forward.
'As many as 47% think that ‘Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU’, while just slightly more, 51%, believe that ‘Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay’
That works out as pretty close to a 'decisive' 52-48.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690347/Revealed-Where-5million-Brits-live-abroad-1-3million-Australia-four-emigrated-San-Marino.html
Germany and Italy may well have information of use to us, showing what the individual did whilst in their countries.
As ever, I bow to those on here who are more knowledgeable on such matters ...
A business representative said there has been a big move to reducing dependence on imported goods as more businesses turn to home supply.
This must be a good thing and must help our trade balance.
Reading the earlier comments it seems the remain and leave camp are continuing their battle against it each other in what is now a stale argument.
Theresa May seems to have been well received in the UK and after spending 3 hours 11 mins at the dispatch box answering 113 MP's in the longest session by any PM in recent times and then facing up Andrew Neil there can be no doubt she has the stamina and is up for the positive vision of the UK.
Interesting times ahead
'This poll definitely isn't bollox, EXCEPT FOR THIS BIT OBVIOUSLY.'
Inconvenient, I know.
Greece is now having its lifestyle reduced to its wealth creating capacity - it had a couple of decades living it up on borrowed money and handouts.
But as per http://www.coppolacomment.com/2017/03/game-theory-in-brexitland.html
May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
This is the key point for me.
... will the UK accept the two-step approach and quickly negotiate a set of principles to fix the financial settlement, if not an actual amount and payments schedule, so that the new barriers to trade can start to be be negotiated, or will the PM attempt to link the negotiations together? And, if so, how might she do so successfully?
I think they should be claiming more, to be honest.
He is chairman of the "European Movement" (whatever that is) though.
https://twitter.com/bobfrombrockley/status/847366987667824641
The bigger picture is what an absolutely pointless waste of money it all this, despite the bleating from Remoaners I'm confident if we had another referendum tomorrow Leave would win by a larger margin.
The EU acts in the collective interests of its members, which is what I would expect from any organisation. Where those interests diverge it tries to accommodate each member through horse-trading. In general, I think the EU is a force for the good. It provides a forum where the disparate nations of Europe can thrash out their differences and where there is no alternative to it. And because it promotes liberal values and a rules-based system for the world, which are my values. Nobody of course loves a bureaucracy, but I am not overly fond of Westminster or Holyrood either, which were my other representatives. As far as the referendum was concerned, I don't think Leavers were stupid or even wrong to vote the way they did. However I do think they mostly voted on a set of false premises, which are going to unwind in ways that damage Britain. This discussion demonstrates the contradictions.
He'll not waste the opportunity to leave his mark.
As for Boris and Fox... They haven't been *that* bad have they? Especially Boris who has generally performed his task as foreign secretary in a reasonable way (and better than most people thought he would when Mrs May appointed him to the role) ?
Well worth a watch if you didn't see it.
Moi, for example.
https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
The same things are being said in large parts of the continent.
The more focused minds, rather than the ideological ones, know full well that if we start zero rating particular products that are readily available on a global basis that the europeans are about to take a big whack.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/whatinformationisthereonbritishmigrantslivingineurope/jan2017
I think the EU has acted to make the rich parts of Europe even wealthier, and poor parts of Europe even poorer.
'Ken Clarke seems to have disappeared. Does anyone know if he is unwell or very stressed over the EU, limiting his public appearances'
Dunno about Ken. Hezza was on Newsnight last night though.. Utterly, utterly destroyed and bereft.
Well worth a watch if you didn't see it.
I did see Hezza interviewed by Adam Boulton and he was so bitter and inconsolable
I liked Hezza in his day but he did have a problem with Margaret T and it seems Theresa has come along to haunt him further
It really is so sad
It is worth noting that the claims by the Chief Exec of Ronnie Scott's about "attacks on his business" were a pile of self-indulgent pish, since Brexit generated something of a mini tourist boom to London. He should be grateful.
Well worth a watch if you didn't see it.
I did see Hezza interviewed by Adam Boulton and he was so bitter and inconsolable
I liked Hezza in his day but he did have a problem with Margaret T and it seems Theresa has come along to haunt him further
It really is so sad
I used to like Heseltine - his conference speeches used to be barn-stormers - until he came along to "help" the volunteers in an ultra-marginal seat I was working in '87 - and basically said that all the effort in delivering leaflets and knocking on doors made not a blind bit of difference to the overall result. What a way to gee up the troops. Wazzock.
I was never keen on him. Always though he was over-rated and politically very clumsy.
His handling to the pit closure's in 1992 was terrible. And that was long before we found out he was a dog murderer...
I know a lot of people like to equate May with Thatcher - May is far more the interventionist, corporatist Conservative believing the State can and has to intervene to get things done.
I suspect he has a pint in his hand and is just thinking, "I know I am right and this is will be an economic disaster".
In 1987 he was probably hankering for Maggie to lose (a lot of people thought the Parliament would be Hung in '87) so he could knife her and take over...