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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the first time incumbency bonus can impact on the uniform national swing seat projections
The charts above are based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and looks at the impact of incumbency at the 2010 general election.
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Step forward Mr Palmer...
Annoyed with myself for not backing Grosjean to be top 3. Oh well.
Anyway, I've laid Rosberg to be top 6 at 2.3. I suspect the Mercedes will eat its tyres (worth recalling too that high temperatures decrease reliability, and that could be a factor as well).
Edited extra bit: ahem.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/hungary-pre-race.html
So far:
Bedford: Patrick Hall
Enfield North: Joan Ryan
Gillingham: Paul Clark
Hendon: Andrew Dismore
Northampton North: Sally Keeble
North Warwickshire: Mike O’Brian
Stroud: David Drew
Swindon South: Anne Snelgrove
Waveney: Bob Blizzard
Wolverhampton SW: Rob Marris
I know most people on here will think that is ridiculous but that is what Kellner thinks and he is likely to be a pretty good judge.
Anyone betting on a Lab majority might like to think pretty carefully about that.
Link:
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/01/labour-enters-danger-zone/
It`s a bad article.Kellner has not used any scientific analysis on how many points the two factors mentioned will cost Labour.`I reckon Labour`s going to need a bigger lead` for a majority is a good post on PB but for a pollster,that`s really poor.
Given Labour had a 60 seat majority in 2005 with a 3% lead,to state that Labour will need 6% lead for a one seat majority needs stronger supporting evidence.
At the last election, my electoral machine was at least half non-members, many of them not Labour in any way, and most of them are still poised to help if wanted. It was a significant factor in persuading me to have another go - too many nice people to disappoint. I'd assume that most former MPs have a similar network so some needle matches should result.
http://labourmajority.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Majority-Rules1.pdf
.......and a 'benefit of the doubt' that is far from clear voters are currently willing to extend to Labour....
1) Boundary changes in 2010
2) Con significantly outperformed UNS in 2010
3) What's in Kellner's article
Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Think you need a holiday RT @andyburnhammp: Tory #NHS strategy: run it down, undermine public confidence, propose privatisation as answer.
When all the leaflets pile through your door if you don't generally care then they can seem very similar but the one that says "Re-Elect xxx" will stand out much, much more.
https://twitter.com/allanholloway
That is a significantly better article than the one on Youguv.But nowhere in it has he explained how he got the 7%...He says that the swingometer on ukpollingreport predicts a Labour lead of 1% is sufficient for a majority and perhaps one could add MOE of 2% to include the factors he has mentioned,but it seems a big jump to 7%.
Also he has used peak poll leads as the predictor of general election success.What I would be interested is how stable those peak poll leads were.Labour`s poll lead has been fairly stable so far and whether it means they they ride better down the home stretch remains to be seen
Thanks...Your nice message is much appreciated
Sky News @SkyNews 9m
£2bn Lloyds Profit Triggers Stake Sale Talks http://news.sky.com/story/1121187/2bn-lloyds-profit-triggers-stake-sale-talks …
It's called 'incumbency'.....'insurgency' is a different job - and if the central brand is fooked (no, I won't post the Ed Miliband 'weak' rating again...) so are you.....
The choreographed dancing in the May Day Stadium of Pyongyang is as spectacular as anything I've seen since Danny Boyle's Opening Ceremony for the London 2012 Olympics.
And all so peaceful too.
Mortality rates under Kim's parading soldiers and tanks appear to much lower than those under Burnham's nurses and in Boyle's NHS beds.
I have no idea if any parties canvassed when I've been out.
Blackpool North, Lab: Sam Rushworth
Rochford & Southend East, Lab: Ian Gilbert
Dorset South, Lab: Simon Bowkett
Amber Valley, Lab: Kevin Gillott
Newton Abbot, LD: Richard Younger-Ross
Birmingham Erdington, Con: Robert Alden
Leeds North West, Lab: Alex Sobel
Twitter
Andy Burnham @andyburnhammp 8h
Despite media silence, people have twigged Tory #NHS strategy: run it down, undermine public confidence, propose privatisation as answer.
Andy Burnham @andyburnhammp 4h
RT to remind @David_Cameron & @Jeremy_Hunt that they have never been given your permission to put the #NHS up for sale.
"It is harder than ever to regard the over-65s as a burden, given that a million of them are now taxpaying employees. Across all sectors, businesses report the benefits of employing older workers. McDonald’s, for example, reports a 20 per cent higher performance in outlets employing workers aged over 60 as well as younger workers........
If the old saved, are they to be blamed for the subsequent fruits of this thrift? After a lifetime of paying for the welfare state, is it so bad that they draw on the account into which they paid so heavily? Isn’t it only civilised that those who first defended and then rebuilt this nation are afforded some respect and extra consideration? The Pinchists reject it all. Anyone who has anything that anyone else doesn’t have doesn’t deserve to have it, they argue — even if they have slogged their guts out for it. Is that not the sacred dogma of the religion of redistribution?
What this totally ignores is the many ways in which older people are subsidising the younger generations. According to a report by JP Morgan Asset Management, more than one third of grandparents say they are contributing to their family’s everyday living costs. A fifth have helped their children raise a deposit for a house, a quarter have paid some of the money towards a holiday, and just over a third buy school uniforms and clothes for their grandkids or help cover the cost of school trips. Figures from Carers UK show that 1.3 million pensioners are caring for disabled or older loved ones, up a third over the last 10 years. This saves the economy £119 billion a year.......
The readiness to point the finger at the elderly is all of a piece with a particularly odious British attitude. In most societies, the elderly are revered. But the British treat them worse than in almost any other European country, coming 17th out of 20 in terms of the percentage of national income spent on long-term residential care and home help for pensioners. Today’s boomers face the grim prospect of being increasingly dumped in old people’s homes by younger generations who no longer feel any duty to care."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8971781/help-the-aged-2/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday Newsletter July 26th 2013
Despite media silence, people have twigged Tory #NHS strategy: run it down, undermine public confidence, propose privatisation as answer.
Retweeted by Alastair Campbell
"Now we know why Crosby was so determined to stop standard packs: there's evidence it is already damaging his client"
As the actress said to the Bishop 'substantiate or withdraw!'
Labour lead over Tories 11% - n/c - in Opinium/Observer poll. Lab 39 (+1) Con 28 (+1) UKIP 16 (-3) LDems 8 (+2). But Cam tops Mil on l'ship.
Authorities in New Zealand have told a South African chef he is too fat to be allowed to live in the country.
Immigration officials said Albert Buitenhuis, who weighs 130kg (286 pounds), did not have "an acceptable standard of health".
He now faces expulsion despite shedding 30kg since he moved to the city of Christchurch six years ago.
New Zealand has one of the highest obesity rates in the developed world, with nearly 30% of people overweight.
Mr Buitenhuis and his wife, Marthie, moved from South Africa to Christchurch in 2007. At the time, the chef weighed 160kg.
Until now, their annual work visas had been renewed with "very little problem", his wife said.
"We applied year after year and there were no issues," she said.
"They never mentioned Albert's weight or his health once and he was a lot heavier then."
But in early May, the couple was told their work visas had been declined because of Mr Buitenhuis's weight.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23475583
Up-tread he appears to be cheering some pressure-group's decision to challenge the deportation of illegal-immigrants. Surely - even after Duchess MadBint's "equaliity legislation" - the 'Uman-Riots Act does not allow Johnnie-foreigner to break English criminal laws, no...?
Labour lead over Tories 11% - n/c - in Opinium/Observer poll. Lab 39 (+1) Con 28 (+1) UKIP 16 (-3) LDems 8 (+2). But Cam tops Mil on l'ship.
You'll have to do better that...
"The former chair of the CQC, Baroness Young, has made very serious allegations that ministers 'leaned on' her to 'tone down' criticism of NHS organisations. She claims that "there was huge government pressure, because the government hated the idea that a regulator would criticise it". Damningly, she revealed that this political pressure peaked under current shadow health secretary's Andy Burnham's tenure as secretary of state. This is why Labour turned down 81 separate requests for a public inquiry into the Mid Staffs scandal."
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/06/20/comment-andy-burnham-s-responsibility-for-secrecy
http://nottspolitics.org/2013/07/27/public-care-about-source-of-mps-second-incomes/
"If the aim of any income cap is to make politicians more popular, then we need to realise that the issue for the public is not just the sums of money involved but both the sums and the source. Continue to earn £50k from a company that you had set up before becoming an MP, and the public do not especially seem to mind. But earn even £10k from continuing your profession as a lawyer or a GP, they do. They object even more to directorships – the spoils of electoral war for some MPs – but again the sum doesn’t hugely matter; £10k earned from directorships is worse than £50k earned from pre-existing occupations. But in terms of just the sums: for a backbench MP £10,000 would be below the proposed 15% cap. In other words, it won’t do much good."
It's particularly stupid as Labour, when in power, put more and more NHS services in the private sector.
A message to Mr Burnham: if you really want to undermine public confidence in the NHS, the best way is to try to hide when things go wrong.
'Andy Burnham @andyburnhammp 8h
Despite media silence, people have twigged Tory #NHS strategy: run it down, undermine public confidence, propose privatisation as answer.'
People have twigged Andy's NHS strategy,don't talk about patients,undermine public confidence and never take the blame for anything.
Dead man walking.
Andy Burnham @andyburnhammp 8h
Despite media silence, people have twigged Tory #NHS strategy: run it down, undermine public confidence, propose privatisation as answer.
Retweeted by Alastair Campbell
However Alastair Campbell retweeted it.
He is a better political advisor than Plato and fitalass at winning elections .
The idea of big vans going round the streets like this is creepy
The Tories are like a patient with bipolar disorder over immigration and social issues, manic one minute and laissez faire the next. When they try and 'out farage' ukip, they look racist and when they play to the middle ground they look soppy... And both seem insincere
I didnt offer a comment on the advisability of the tweet! I was just overawed by the stunning hypocrisy of it.
New Labour sold its air space!
And a bit sick.
a) I think my initial comments were fairly moderate, and were hardly misbehaviour. Which is a bit of a rich accusation coming from you.
b) I apologised within a couple of hours of the second Francis report being released;
But I know you don't really know how apologies work. Or how to give them.
I know you don't care about patients; to you they are just another source of unhelpful anecdotes that take attention away from the misuse of your statistics de jour.
So Tim, crawl out from under your slimy rock of anonymity and tell us what makes you such an expert on the subject areas that you spurt verbal diarrhoea all over continuously. What are you? Why are you such an expert on statistics, MMR, science, housing, infrastructure, farming, wine, and all the other things you have typed 6,847 posts over.
Or are you just a gentleman amateur or, worse, a fool?
"The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out and has topline figures of CON 28%(+1), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 16%(-3). Their Labour lead is resolutely unchanged, but like TNS earlier in the week they have UKIP coming down from their post-local election peak of around 20 points. There’s obviously still a big methodological gulf between different pollsters on UKIP scores, but the trend is starting to be a bit more consistent."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7891
'So Tim, crawl out from under your slimy rock of anonymity and tell us what makes you such an expert on the subject areas that you spurt verbal diarrhoea all over continuously.'
Tim just repeats whatever the party line / model answer that has been dished out by Labour HQ.
"Our findings are interesting" - we show a bunch of MOE shifts
"Our findings are surprising" - one change is 1% more than MOE
"Our findings will change the landscape of British politics - the findings are interesting.
This one was "interesting". Essentially the polls have settled down, except for YouGov, which has oscillation of the Con/UKIP axis. Everyone agrees Labour is on 38-39. None of the stuff about Miliband or Burnham has had any visible effect. The Tories might be creeping closer, or not. Er, that's about it.
I don't think it makes much sense to base views on incumbent activity on a couple of seats. I'm back at my parent's in Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale where the local Tories remain quite active and we've had nothing from Labour since 2010. I've also had nothing from my Labour MP in Edinburgh North. This is pretty much the exact opposite of what Mike has experienced in Bedford. So it's probably a bit tricky to establish which party will benefit most from incumbent MPs and individual experiences might not tell us a great deal.
However, we have tons of first time incumbents at Holyrood level.
From memory I seem to remember someone doing a study which showed that SNP incumbents are even harder to shift than LD ones.
Why did he not embark on this two years ago - you know 'scraping off the barnacles', to borrow a phrase...'
Twitter
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 17m
John Sparks of Channel 4 News does the first ever doorstep with Kim Jung Un http://bit.ly/177FQEB
Pollsters are marketing men, and like all marketing men they are prone to write endless screeds of total guff, with the odd flash of brilliance.
Go on, tell us again about the Falkirk 'non-story' (and if you are really keen 'best candidate ratings' among voters in Eastleigh.....)
However any commenwealth countries students does not.
Never makes sense to me.
Why some countries do, and others do not , and what criteria they use for risk.
Seems just bureacracy gone mad.
For much of the spring and early summer Cameron's lead over Miliband was in low single figures. But now it appears to have stretched as better economic news has come through and the Tories have appeared more united over issues such as Europe."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/27/opinion-poll-labour-lead-miliband
'The tourist bond thing seems specifically designed to wind-up the Indians'
So just sit back and do nothing (that worked so well for New Labour) and then stuff the taxpayer with the massive bill to track down illegal immigrants and deport them.
By the way what's Labour's policy on this?
Pretend it's not happening?
Turn a blind eye?
Or is it still a blank piece of paper?
Surely he would have been better to neither confirm or deny this, on his visit there earlier this year.
'I don't know what Labour's policy is, but having done business in India this year I know exactly how Indians will react to this news. It's going to make things much harder there, just at a time when real opportunities were beginning to appear.'
So on the basis of a business trip 'I know exactly how Indians will react',seems each time you make a business trip you become an overnight expert.
I'm sure you were telling us how critical the UK's overseas aid was to India,that really worked well in the recent Fighter deal.
But Australia already has a system of security bonds in place. Any application for a visa to visit a family member in Australia is subject to a discretionary request for a bond:
The Sponsored Family stream of the Visitor visa (subclass 600) is intended to be used by people seeking to come to Australia to visit family. The Sponsored Family stream requires formal sponsorship of a visa applicant by an Australian citizen or permanent resident. In some cases, a security bond may be requested.
Formal sponsorship by a sponsor is required to ensure the visa holder will abide by their visa conditions and leave Australia at the end of their visit.
The imposition of a security bond is decided on a case by case basis. It is an added assurance that the visa holder will depart Australia and is normally applied in those cases where some concerns remain about an applicant's intention to comply with their visa conditions.
That is probably the most astute and devastating political statement tim has made all year, the man is awesome.
Cue minder,
What about Canada?
From "Citizenship and Immigration Canada" official government website:
The Government of Canada will never ask you to deposit money into a personal bank account or to transfer money through a specific company. However, in some cases, an immigration officer at the Canadian port of entry can require you to post a bond in form of a cash deposit to ensure that you comply with certain terms and conditions during your visit to Canada (i.e. leaving Canada when your approved period of stay is over).
If a bond in the form of a cash deposit is required, the officer fixes the deposit amount based on your financial resources and other conditions set out in Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations.
Your party cannot be trusted on immigration tim,you know that.
Farage shouldn't waste time attacking any of these policies as it will just get lost in the static anyway. He should use them as a springboard to keep making the *same* point over and over: we can't fully control our borders until we escape from the EU.
Come again, how many Chinese business people visited Shengen countries and how many visited Britain ?
Britain under the Tories wants to be a small white island !
I guess you could always delete Canada and Australia in an edit of your previous post. That would leave just the USA.
... wait a minute ...
I have just seen this question asked by an Indian national wishing to change employers after obtaining an entry visa and work permit:
I am in India right now and got a valid H1 (Stamped) from Company "A" but with a Bond of 25K or @ years. The only thing which I signed was the offer letter where the bond amount and duration was mentioned.
Now I got an offer from Company "B" who is ready to do my H1 Transfer but he is asking me to come to US on Company "A"'s H1 and the he will apply for H1 Transfer under "premium processing" since I dont have paystubs from Company "A". I do have SSN (from my previous travel on L1 from my current Company) Here are my questions...
Oh dear, probably best just to delete your earlier post altogether, tim, rather than just edit it.
It seems the UK is the last major country in the world to be implementing security bonds as a pre-requirement for granting temporary work and visitor visas.
We don't have to be like the rest. We should be better. Not a small white island !