Does anyone really think the good Labour voters of Stoke-on-Trent, Barnsley and the like are going to be drawn back to the party by Keir Starmer, of all people?
Probably if has a sensible immigration policy with a sensible shadow cabinet.
Surely Carswell is hoist by his own petard re a by election
Here is what he advised Labour MPs to do, back in 2015
"Insist on a by-election. Between 1701 and 1918, a by-election had to be called every time an MP was invited to join the government. Think of it as a sort of confirmation hearing. Insist on a by-election to confirm your move with the electorate. It's the only honourable way. Incidentally, there is no disgrace if they do say "No". What would be disgraceful would be to live life subservient to people you cannot respect
He is saying he doesn't need to trigger a by election as he is not going to another party, but in the same piece he says
"...join UKIP. I did, and I've never enjoyed being an MP more. Many of your party's traditional supporters have already made the move. Come with us. If those are not the sort of things you believe in, then why not run as an independent? Seriously. The days when we can do politics without big, corporate parties is coming."
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
Trends continue - but not for ever..
My charting says Labour 19% and then a bounce..
Labour's vote share has not actually fallen overall since the end of November last year. The higher Tory lead is due to an increase in Tory support at UKIP's expense.
Doesn't all this sort of miss the point? UKIP procured Brexit - one of the most sensational outcomes in the history of British democracy - despite having at any given time between two and, as the threader shrieks, ZERO MPs. Assume someone wins the biggest poker jackpot ever: if you say yebbut the guy was a total douche plus he was bluffing with nothing but a pair of 2s in his hand, it seems to me that that makes the achievement more impressive, not less.
I suspect finessing in bridge might be a better analogy than bluffing in poker, but card games bewilder me.
Doesn't all this sort of miss the point? UKIP procured Brexit - one of the most sensational outcomes in the history of British democracy - despite having at any given time between two and, as the threader shrieks, ZERO MPs. Assume someone wins the biggest poker jackpot ever: if you say yebbut the guy was a total douche plus he was bluffing with nothing but a pair of 2s in his hand, it seems to me that that makes the achievement more impressive, not less.
I suspect finessing in bridge might be a better analogy than bluffing in poker, but card games bewilder me.
Some UKIP supporters (Carswell, Richard Tyndall, for example.) only ever saw UKIP as a mean to achieve an end (Brexit).
Others see a role for a socially conservative, anti-immigration, economically populist, party.
I think there is a gap in the market for that UKIP (aka the Patriotic Alliance, and Veritas). But it's not currently a very big gap. Perhaps if Mrs May delivered an ultra-soft Brexit then there would be a bigger gap, but currently this gap is 10-15% of the population.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39393351
Rather odd description for the party which is still only 3rd even AMONG REMAIN VOTERS.
Here is what he advised Labour MPs to do, back in 2015
"Insist on a by-election. Between 1701 and 1918, a by-election had to be called every time an MP was invited to join the government. Think of it as a sort of confirmation hearing. Insist on a by-election to confirm your move with the electorate. It's the only honourable way. Incidentally, there is no disgrace if they do say "No". What would be disgraceful would be to live life subservient to people you cannot respect
He is saying he doesn't need to trigger a by election as he is not going to another party, but in the same piece he says
"...join UKIP. I did, and I've never enjoyed being an MP more. Many of your party's traditional supporters have already made the move. Come with us. If those are not the sort of things you believe in, then why not run as an independent? Seriously. The days when we can do politics without big, corporate parties is coming."
"Why not RUN as an independent" Douglas?
http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/how-to-resign-and-spark-a-tricky-byelection/2931#.WNZzbKeV1F4.twitter
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/leaving-ukip-was-inevitable-douglas-carswell-now-brexit-assured-1613676
I suspect finessing in bridge might be a better analogy than bluffing in poker, but card games bewilder me.
Others see a role for a socially conservative, anti-immigration, economically populist, party.
I think there is a gap in the market for that UKIP (aka the Patriotic Alliance, and Veritas). But it's not currently a very big gap. Perhaps if Mrs May delivered an ultra-soft Brexit then there would be a bigger gap, but currently this gap is 10-15% of the population.
We have some great snaps of our human a-board advertising the book fair surrounded by Police keeping an eye. Makes him look like a VIP!
https://twitter.com/parcelorogues/status/845653983452631040