1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
The country is evenly spit on leaving the UK, meaning a small movement to remain since last June. I want to know what happens if it became clear in a years time that say Remain were in front in all the polls by 12 - 20%, which is quite feasible.
I thought there was a thread a week or so ago showing that there had been literally no movement since the vote. I don't think anything will change unless a party gets elected on a manifesto to reverse the position. Given the next election will be after we have left, it's probably quite unlikely.
The country is evenly spit on leaving the UK, meaning a small movement to remain since last June. I want to know what happens if it became clear in a years time that say Remain were in front in all the polls by 12 - 20%, which is quite feasible.
The only poll that counts is the one with ballots cast. If we made policy / reversed based upon what a poll said nothing would ever happen.
Why will remain be ahead 60-40 in a year? The polls show virtually no movement since the real vote and the economic forecast is for the year ahead to be fine.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
My ancedotal experience of working with academics / universities where it has to be 90% remainers is shrug, now we just have to make the best of it.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
Philip_Thompson. Get you and would certainly have agreed with you previously. Now unsure. As far as MPs are concerned are UKIP voters constituents with different political views who did not vote for them but are just as important as those who did? Or (if some of PB since June & indeed this week is anything to go by) are they to be regarded as lobotomised morons? If the latter, are they really being represented?
It does sound like Liberty want to change things so that it's more attractive to be a small team involved in F1.
I still don't understand the persistence of those Betfair odds, which imply Hamilton is eight times more likely to win than Vettel. It's a tough circuit to overtake on, and should Vettel get the drop on Hamilton at the start (far from unlikely on recent evidence), he'd have a very good chance of winning. What is more, they are pretty well the same odds as Vettel winning the championship which is silly (unless you factor in the Betfair trading effect).
Had a modest punt (though I still think Hamilton is clear favourite), ahead of working out a way to hedge the strategy.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
What in reality is left of UKIP? No MPs, no money, a handful of councillors and a few MEPs who lose their jobs in two years' time. This is a slow motion winding-up of the party.
To answer my own question, all that's left of UKIP now in reality is the idea.
If May does ultra hard Brexit ie not only an end to free movement but no more money at all to the EU and out of the single market and straight to WTO terms that would be true but if not there will still be a market for UKIP from Leave diehards
To put it in perspective more people bought tickets for UK Metallica shows in an hour on Friday than attended the anti-brexit rally today.
So a washed up over the hill metal band more popular than listening to bad al rant against brexit and people paid up to pay up to £90 for the privilege (Metallica that is, not bad all, they should pay you to listen to him)
The country is evenly spit on leaving the UK, meaning a small movement to remain since last June. I want to know what happens if it became clear in a years time that say Remain were in front in all the polls by 12 - 20%, which is quite feasible.
After Wednesday, Remain is legally not an option (at the moment it's politically not an option). Do you think there will be 56 to 60% for Rejoin+euro+Schengen?
The country is evenly spit on leaving the UK, meaning a small movement to remain since last June. I want to know what happens if it became clear in a years time that say Remain were in front in all the polls by 12 - 20%, which is quite feasible.
After Wednesday, Remain is legally not an option (at the moment it's politically not an option). Do you think there will be 56 to 60% for Rejoin+euro+Schengen?
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random White Pride idiots than they merit (if that's what they were).
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
The Euro is already the currency in part of the UK as was. The rest will follow in time, starting with NI and Scotland.
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random idiots than they merit.
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
I thought the police had a good solution in Manchester when the black lives matters tried a sit in protest chained together in the middle of the road. They just erected screens around them.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
The Euro is already the currency in part of the UK as was. The rest will follow in time, starting with NI and Scotland.
What timeframe do you put on England using the Euro then?
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random idiots than they merit.
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
I thought the police had a good solution in Manchester when the black lives matters tried a sit in protest chained together in the middle of the road. They just erected screens around them.
Exactly. They'll get hungry in the end when the Pret cheese rolls run out.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random idiots than they merit.
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
I thought the police had a good solution in Manchester when the black lives matters tried a sit in protest chained together in the middle of the road. They just erected screens around them.
Exactly. They'll get hungry in the end when the Pret cheese rolls run out.
The BLM protestors are too posh to be seen dead in pret!
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
The Euro is already the currency in part of the UK as was. The rest will follow in time, starting with NI and Scotland.
What timeframe do you put on England using the Euro then?
You could make the UK re-admission contingent on ending the pointless relocations to Strasbourg, and making them relocate to Shepton Mallet instead.
If you're going to do pointless then at least make it utterly pointless.
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random idiots than they merit.
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
I thought the police had a good solution in Manchester when the black lives matters tried a sit in protest chained together in the middle of the road. They just erected screens around them.
Exactly. They'll get hungry in the end when the Pret cheese rolls run out.
The BLM protestors are too posh to be seen dead in pret!
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
New EU members commit to join the Euro at some point, but there is no mechanism to compel them. I doubt if Sweden, which is theoretically required to join the Euro, will ever actually join. (Smaller countries, where there is little market for local currency debt, will probably join.)
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Betfair has the probability of a Tory majority at the next election at 1.76 i.e. 57%. So that is a 43% chance the Tories will not have an overall majority. Add in DUP and absence of SF and that gives say a 30% chance the Tories will not have a working majority and that there will be a minority government (led by Keir Starmer?). That is not a negligible chance.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
Probably, more likely is we have close to a decade of work permit requirements and then, say, Chuka Umunna leads Labour to victory in the 2025 general election on a platform of rejoining the single market before 2030
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
If it all goes wrong, the party backing Remain that will win a majority in the next election will be the Conservatives, following the political downfall of Theresa May and her Brexiteers.
It's not 'anti-democrats' that Leavers should worry about, but the impact of reality upon their plans.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
In fact Brexit has happened at a fortuitous moment. The pound has fallen, just as the world economy is picking up, aiding exporters.
You can send him a thank you letter then I guess since Vote Leave managed to win the referendum.
I have no idea whether Carswell was intent on keeping Farage out of the limelight but if he were then he did the whole country a huge service and helped make Brexit a reality. .
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
In fact Brexit has happened at a fortuitous moment. The pound has fallen, just as the world economy is picking up, aiding exporters.
That is true.
I do wish the UK government would take steps to boost the savings rate. The longer at it stays at the currently depressed level, the worse the correction will be.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
That's the nature of FPTP. A government with a Commons majority will have its' wicked way with us. Since WWII no party has enjoyed 50% or more of the vote.
And think of poor malcolmg - A LibDem/SNP Coalition government. The poor chap would probably kill himself in a vat of turnip wine.
New EU members commit to join the Euro at some point, but there is no mechanism to compel them. I doubt if Sweden, which is theoretically required to join the Euro, will ever actually join. (Smaller countries, where there is little market for local currency debt, will probably join.)
Mr. Robert, does the Swedish example not expose the whole rotten nature of the EU. A country has signed up to an agreement in order to meet an EU requirement but everyone knows they will never honour that agreement. There is no real set of rules, no real rule of law, and there never has been from what I can see, only what countries can get away with. The small countries get stomped on but the bigger ones get away with whatever they want.
If memory serves, when the Euro was mooted Germany said there must be rules and insisted that on the Growth and Stability Pact, which everyone duly signed up to. That pact limited countries to a deficit of no more than 3% of GDP. Which country was first to breach that limit? Yup, Germany. Because it didn't suit their needs at that time. The second country to breach? France. What action was taken against those countries? None. Yet now Germany is all in favour of hanging out Greece and some other little people in order to save Germany's own banks.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
To rejoin the EU yes though I can see a future Labour government taking us back into the single market
I don't see a route back to the EU for the UK. I can see attempts at putting together a highly unsatisfactory EEA type agreement. Brexit is going to be a very frustrating experience for the British. Much more so than membership of the EU, interestingly.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
Probably, more likely is we have close to a decade of work permit requirements and then, say, Chuka Umunna leads Labour to victory in the 2025 general election on a platform of rejoining the single market before 2030
Discovering that the moon is made of double Gloucester cheese is more likely than the scenario you put forward.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
Probably, more likely is we have close to a decade of work permit requirements and then, say, Chuka Umunna leads Labour to victory in the 2025 general election on a platform of rejoining the single market before 2030
Discovering that the moon is made of double Gloucester cheese is more likely than the scenario you put forward.
Everyone knows that the moon is made from green cheese!
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
If it all goes wrong, the party backing Remain that will win a majority in the next election will be the Conservatives, following the political downfall of Theresa May and her Brexiteers.
It's not 'anti-democrats' that Leavers should worry about, but the impact of reality upon their plans.
One thing you can be sure of is the Tories will never take us back into the EU, never forget May having backed Remain is more Europhile than Tory voters, a clear majority of whom voted Leave, let alone Tory members who have the final say on the next Tory leader
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I think it would be very hard to rejoin without a referendum.
But I would not be surprised in the LibDems beat labour in the 2020 GE, at least in terms of total votes.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). That was on a cold February day and was reported as a million people.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
That's Corbyn's new found support for BREXIT. Labour members are 90% for Remain and Labour supporters are about 70% for Remain IIRC.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
Probably, more likely is we have close to a decade of work permit requirements and then, say, Chuka Umunna leads Labour to victory in the 2025 general election on a platform of rejoining the single market before 2030
Discovering that the moon is made of double Gloucester cheese is more likely than the scenario you put forward.
I don't think it that unlikely a future Labour government will take us back into the EEA
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
If there was a betting market for getting the second highest number of votes at the 2020 GE, I would be very interested to know.
Mr. Robert, does the Swedish example not expose the whole rotten nature of the EU. A country has signed up to an agreement in order to meet an EU requirement but everyone knows they will never honour that agreement. There is no real set of rules, no real rule of law, and there never has been from what I can see, only what countries can get away with. The small countries get stomped on but the bigger ones get away with whatever they want.
If memory serves, when the Euro was mooted Germany said there must be rules and insisted that on the Growth and Stability Pact, which everyone duly signed up to. That pact limited countries to a deficit of no more than 3% of GDP. Which country was first to breach that limit? Yup, Germany. Because it didn't suit their needs at that time. The second country to breach? France. What action was taken against those countries? None. Yet now Germany is all in favour of hanging out Greece and some other little people in order to save Germany's own banks.
It seems the EU is damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
Regarding Growth and Stability, it always included the clause that a qualified majority of Eurozone members could vote to suspend penalties. And that is exactly what happened when Germany (and later others) breached the 3% rule. Is that necessary flexibility to deal with circumstances like the Global Financial Crisis? Or is it a sign that the whole thing is rotten?
Regarding Greece, it has had debts equivalent to about 60% of GDP written off. The cost of that write off was that it reduced its government deficit. That doesn't sound particularly evil to me.
Obviously, Greece should have left the Eurozone. (And should never have joined in the first place.) But to simply say that is all Germany's fault, and that the Greek's are being left out to dry is ridiculous.
When thinking about Greece's problems, rather than simply assigning blame to actors, imagine that the Eurozone had not existed. Imagine that the Greek government had discovered it could borrow really cheaply by issuing Deutcshmark debt rather than Drachma. Because that is what Eurozone membership entails: issuing debt in a currency that is not your own.
(It's tempting to say ridiculous! No country should do that. But small countries have to do that. There was no meaningful market for Estonian government debt denominated in Kroons. It had to borrow in Deutschmarks or Euros even before it joined the EU.)
Back to the thought example: is it Germany's duty to subsidise the Greeks? Or is the fault of the Greeks for borrowing too muc gin a currency they didn't control? And is it, or is it not, acceptable for creditors to impose conditions on borrowers?
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
That's Corbyn's new found support for BREXIT. Labour members are 90% for Remain and Labour supporters are about 70% for Remain IIRC.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
Of course, with the current system, if the Lib Dems got 28% they would still loose seats if the Tories got 53% (which would probably be eve higher in England if the SNP do well). Labour concentration, even on 8%, might still see them with more MPs than the Lib Dems.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
in politics nothing is certain, but confirmation bias is highly likely,
in 1994, there were referenda in both Norway and Sweden and Norway on joining the EU, both were close, Sweden voted in by 52.3% and Norway Out by 52.2%.
there we have 2 nation similar in geography, language and so on, and the results of the referenda so close. Since then each nation seems more and more confidant that it made the right chose, Opinion in Norway is now dead against Joining, and at least for most of the last 23 years opinion in Sweden has been heavily against leaving.
IMO its probably to late for remain/rejoin, but to be faire to their people if they what to change things now is their best chance, if we leave and there is no big tragedy for the first 6 mouths I put the change of ever re-joining at les than 1%
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
That's Corbyn's new found support for BREXIT. Labour members are 90% for Remain and Labour supporters are about 70% for Remain IIRC.
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
The march took about two hours to pass the junction between Piccadilly and St James St and was moving at about 10 people a second past a fixed point so I make it about 70,000. Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
It felt huge when you were in it but I know it was much less than the march against the Iraq war (which is the only other march I have taken part in). The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
That's Corbyn's new found support for BREXIT. Labour members are 90% for Remain and Labour supporters are about 70% for Remain IIRC.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
Of course, with the current system, if the Lib Dems got 28% they would still loose seats if the Tories got 53% (which would probably be eve higher in England if the SNP do well). Labour concentration, even on 8%, might still see them with more MPs than the Lib Dems.
If you Baxter it, you get in seats Con 526, Lab 8, LD 39. UKIP 0, SNP 54. SNP would be the official opposition!
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
Imagine if the LibDems got 33% at the next General Election, and - together with the SNP - commanded a parliamentary majority. You would then have the awkward situation where perhaps 37% of the population voted pro-Remain/EU, but parties with those views were in charge.
I keep an exponential moving average of GE polls and do a linear extrapolation to May 2020.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
Of course, with the current system, if the Lib Dems got 28% they would still loose seats if the Tories got 53% (which would probably be eve higher in England if the SNP do well). Labour concentration, even on 8%, might still see them with more MPs than the Lib Dems.
If you Baxter it, you get in seats Con 526, Lab 8, LD 39. UKIP 0, SNP 54. SNP would be the official opposition!
Fascinating, thanks. Personally, in that situation, I think the real opposition would come from the hand-wringing side of the Conservative Party.
Don't see the point of them now as a political force, their crusade was won though I would argue not necessary by them but by other participants (their imo racist at times campaign summed them up perfectly for me during the campaign).
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
1000 ppl in Edinburgh, 20-25k in London....They aren't exactly the million man march against brexit.
Even the soap dodging, too lazy to vote, waste of space set of students managed more for their riots against fees.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Well media such as guardian and telegraph etc saying ~25k. Even 50k is still a fairly small turnout.
tive.
But that's irrelevant. The Iraq war was a decision made on our behalf, leaving the EU is a decision made by the people.
By half the people. And they will be shown to have got it wrong, just as the Blair government was.
Then you'll have no problem winning a referendum for Rejoin+euro+Schengen, will you?
Revoking Article 50 will not involve the euro or Schengen.
A party backing remain would have to win a majority of seats at the next election. Seems unlikely, and at that point we'll have already left (deal or not).
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
That's Corbyn's new found support for BREXIT. Labour members are 90% for Remain and Labour supporters are about 70% for Remain IIRC.
This is why Corbyn will not survive until the next GE.
Its not just about keeping the votes you have its also about getting back the votes you lost and attracting new votes.
From an GE perspective I think lab have the potential to pick up more support from UKIP, especially as it is now imploding, than from the LD who are not disappearing any time soon. By now supporting BREXIT he is positioning to pick up maybe 2 or 3 million votes that might otherwise go to UKIP.
Of course it will take a skilled and articulate communicator, with abundant charisma and leadership skills, to do this, without loosing some support to the Lib Dems and who do labour have Corbin!
Mr. B, did you go for back-and-hedge on Betfair, or each way on Ladbrokes?
Just backed for now (busy at the moment). &, btw was put by a factor of at least two on the relative odds (schoolboy error). Still think it a good bet, though - will look again late if I have time.
Don't see the point of them now as a political force, their crusade was won though I would argue not necessary by them but by other participants (their imo racist at times campaign summed them up perfectly for me during the campaign).
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
So what is the point of UKIP now?
At the moment the 'point' of UKIP, so to speak, is to act as a reservoir of voters, mostly but not all WWC, would have traditionally voted Lab, and would never consider voting TORY! but are put off by Corbin.
Most con/UKIP switchers have gone back to Con, the hard core UKIP votes is small, but the ex-Lab vote is big
Don't see the point of them now as a political force, their crusade was won though I would argue not necessary by them but by other participants (their imo racist at times campaign summed them up perfectly for me during the campaign).
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
So what is the point of UKIP now?
"So what is the point of UKIP now?"
To provide political entertainment for the rest of us.
Don't see the point of them now as a political force, their crusade was won though I would argue not necessary by them but by other participants (their imo racist at times campaign summed them up perfectly for me during the campaign).
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
So what is the point of UKIP now?
"So what is the point of UKIP now?"
To provide political entertainment for the rest of us.
Don't see the point of them now as a political force, their crusade was won though I would argue not necessary by them but by other participants (their imo racist at times campaign summed them up perfectly for me during the campaign).
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
So what is the point of UKIP now?
"So what is the point of UKIP now?"
To provide political entertainment for the rest of us.
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
Probably, more likely is we have close to a decade of work permit requirements and then, say, Chuka Umunna leads Labour to victory in the 2025 general election on a platform of rejoining the single market before 2030
Discovering that the moon is made of double Gloucester cheese is more likely than the scenario you put forward.
Everyone knows that the moon is made from green cheese!
G-Live: Tottenham MP David Lammy tells the Guardian there is a way back into the EU for Britain. “In the end this is about the people. We’re hearing a lot of stuff about the will of the people and it’s complete spin,” he says.
“There are a lot of people against Brexit in this country, and people are changing their mind. We’re even seeing Labour wobbling and wondering why we’re here. We’re here because of a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric.
“We’re living in a dictatorship. In democracies people are always allowed to change their minds. Over the coming months and years we will fight. Nigel Farage wouldn’t give up. Labour needs to rediscover its mojo, and quickly,” Lammy adds.
Does Lammy always sound this thick, or was he just really trying this time…
G-Live: Tottenham MP David Lammy tells the Guardian there is a way back into the EU for Britain. “In the end this is about the people. We’re hearing a lot of stuff about the will of the people and it’s complete spin,” he says.
“There are a lot of people against Brexit in this country, and people are changing their mind. We’re even seeing Labour wobbling and wondering why we’re here. We’re here because of a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric.
“We’re living in a dictatorship. In democracies people are always allowed to change their minds. Over the coming months and years we will fight. Nigel Farage wouldn’t give up. Labour needs to rediscover its mojo, and quickly,” Lammy adds.
Does Lammy always sound this thick, or was he just really trying this time…
It would require a Labour victory at the next general election on just such a platform with LD and SNP support
Labour is not going to have a Rejoin policy in their manifesto, so unless the LDs and the SNP get a majority of seats between them, I think we can reasonably expect it not to happen.
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
In fact Brexit has happened at a fortuitous moment. The pound has fallen, just as the world economy is picking up, aiding exporters.
Another red letter day, So the Pound has dropped and the children are creating, The other half ran away, Taking all the cash and leaving you with the lumber, Got a pain in the chest, Doctor's on strike what you need is a rest.
It's not easy love, but you've got friends you can trust, Friends will be friends, When you're in need of love they give you care and attention, Friends will be friends, When you're through with life and all hope is lost, Hold out your hand cos friends will be friends right till the end.
Mr Dancer, built up my Queen collection (all their albums, and Freddie Mercury solo stuff) in the last month or so - they were my favourite band till I dsicovered Depeche Mode in late 2000!). Depeche Mode are the only other band I have collected every single album, and solo stuff (Dave Gahan, Martin Gore) for.
G-Live: Tottenham MP David Lammy tells the Guardian there is a way back into the EU for Britain. “In the end this is about the people. We’re hearing a lot of stuff about the will of the people and it’s complete spin,” he says.
“There are a lot of people against Brexit in this country, and people are changing their mind. We’re even seeing Labour wobbling and wondering why we’re here. We’re here because of a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric.
“We’re living in a dictatorship. In democracies people are always allowed to change their minds. Over the coming months and years we will fight. Nigel Farage wouldn’t give up. Labour needs to rediscover its mojo, and quickly,” Lammy adds.
Does Lammy always sound this thick, or was he just really trying this time…
I think he needs to discover a dictionary and look up dictatorship and quickly.
For what its worth I don't think BREXIT was all one sided, there are some very good rezones to remain, IMO not as good as the reasons to leave, but that's just my opinion.
I am a libertarian not a Democrat, democracy may be better than most other systems but it is not infallible. Just because a decision is democratically made does not make it the optimal solution.
But to suggest that because you did not get your way we live in a dictatorship, is just silly, it takes away from any valid point you may be trying to make, and makes your opponents less not more likely to change their opinion.
Does anyone really think the good Labour voters of Stoke-on-Trent, Barnsley and the like are going to be drawn back to the party by Keir Starmer, of all people?
Dr. Prasannan, not got nearly as much as you, but found some good tracks I'd never heard before a year or two ago via Youtube. Especially like The Prophet's Song.
Fairy Fella's Masterstroke is where I learnt the word 'tatterdemalion'.
Comments
Say 50 - 100,000.
As well as taking part in the march I had lunch in the Royal Academy (as the elite do). My favorite placard was "I'm really quite upset".
Why will remain be ahead 60-40 in a year? The polls show virtually no movement since the real vote and the economic forecast is for the year ahead to be fine.
I was thinking of the old situation of the prize money for teams >10th place.
My ancedotal experience of working with academics / universities where it has to be 90% remainers is shrug, now we just have to make the best of it.
It's a tough circuit to overtake on, and should Vettel get the drop on Hamilton at the start (far from unlikely on recent evidence), he'd have a very good chance of winning.
What is more, they are pretty well the same odds as Vettel winning the championship which is silly (unless you factor in the Betfair trading effect).
Had a modest punt (though I still think Hamilton is clear favourite), ahead of working out a way to hedge the strategy.
I think the difference was that in the march against the Iraq war, we really felt we could change the vote that was coming up. Today, we were really quite upset but realised we couldn't change things.
The similarity is that, again, we will be proven right when there is sufficient perspective.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/845666064675622912
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/845650695558762496
So a washed up over the hill metal band more popular than listening to bad al rant against brexit and people paid up to pay up to £90 for the privilege (Metallica that is, not bad all, they should pay you to listen to him)
This sort of overreaction is unnecessary and accords more publicity to a few random White Pride idiots than they merit (if that's what they were).
If 15 people want to stand on a street corner then send a bobby to keep an eye, maybe, but that's all it needs.
If someone wants to chain themselves to a railing and swallow the key - leave them there. The key will emerge in it's own natural time and they can unlock themselves.
Too much "policing" these days does seem to consist of self serving PR stunts.
If you're going to do pointless then at least make it utterly pointless.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/845591232881577985
I'd go further, I think it would need a sustained period of us having major economic difficulties while the EU boomed to engender the required levels of public dissatisfaction with Brexit. While I do see a UK recession ahead (the consequence of too much private sector debt and too much reliance on consumer spending for growth), I don't think it'll be anything like enough to cause anything other than loud wailing from the liberal left.
So that is a 43% chance the Tories will not have an overall majority.
Add in DUP and absence of SF and that gives say a 30% chance the Tories will not have a working majority and that there will be a minority government (led by Keir Starmer?). That is not a negligible chance.
It's not 'anti-democrats' that Leavers should worry about, but the impact of reality upon their plans.
Given Labours new found support of BREXIT, and that party's movement in support of that Party, I think a more reasonable proposition is it would take a LibDem victory in a GE, supported by the SNP and a few rebels form labour (if they have any MPs left|!!)
I do wish the UK government would take steps to boost the savings rate. The longer at it stays at the currently depressed level, the worse the correction will be.
And think of poor malcolmg - A LibDem/SNP Coalition government. The poor chap would probably kill himself in a vat of turnip wine.
If memory serves, when the Euro was mooted Germany said there must be rules and insisted that on the Growth and Stability Pact, which everyone duly signed up to. That pact limited countries to a deficit of no more than 3% of GDP. Which country was first to breach that limit? Yup, Germany. Because it didn't suit their needs at that time. The second country to breach? France. What action was taken against those countries? None. Yet now Germany is all in favour of hanging out Greece and some other little people in order to save Germany's own banks.
Currently it has Con 42%, Lab 27%, LD 10% and UKIP 11%.
The linear extrapolation has Con 53%, Lab 8%, LD 28% and UKIP 5% in May 2020!
But I would not be surprised in the LibDems beat labour in the 2020 GE, at least in terms of total votes.
https://election-data.co.uk/labour-membership-poll-results-2017
This is why Corbyn will not survive until the next GE.
Regarding Growth and Stability, it always included the clause that a qualified majority of Eurozone members could vote to suspend penalties. And that is exactly what happened when Germany (and later others) breached the 3% rule. Is that necessary flexibility to deal with circumstances like the Global Financial Crisis? Or is it a sign that the whole thing is rotten?
Regarding Greece, it has had debts equivalent to about 60% of GDP written off. The cost of that write off was that it reduced its government deficit. That doesn't sound particularly evil to me.
Obviously, Greece should have left the Eurozone. (And should never have joined in the first place.) But to simply say that is all Germany's fault, and that the Greek's are being left out to dry is ridiculous.
When thinking about Greece's problems, rather than simply assigning blame to actors, imagine that the Eurozone had not existed. Imagine that the Greek government had discovered it could borrow really cheaply by issuing Deutcshmark debt rather than Drachma. Because that is what Eurozone membership entails: issuing debt in a currency that is not your own.
(It's tempting to say ridiculous! No country should do that. But small countries have to do that. There was no meaningful market for Estonian government debt denominated in Kroons. It had to borrow in Deutschmarks or Euros even before it joined the EU.)
Back to the thought example: is it Germany's duty to subsidise the Greeks? Or is the fault of the Greeks for borrowing too muc gin a currency they didn't control? And is it, or is it not, acceptable for creditors to impose conditions on borrowers?
My charting says Labour 19% and then a bounce..
in 1994, there were referenda in both Norway and Sweden and Norway on joining the EU, both were close, Sweden voted in by 52.3% and Norway Out by 52.2%.
there we have 2 nation similar in geography, language and so on, and the results of the referenda so close. Since then each nation seems more and more confidant that it made the right chose, Opinion in Norway is now dead against Joining, and at least for most of the last 23 years opinion in Sweden has been heavily against leaving.
IMO its probably to late for remain/rejoin, but to be faire to their people if they what to change things now is their best chance, if we leave and there is no big tragedy for the first 6 mouths I put the change of ever re-joining at les than 1%
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/25/exclusive-saving-union-scottish-independence-put-heart-brexit/
The UK is leaving the EU, it's going to happen, the people have spoken so once it's done there is no need for them. Ex-tories will return back to the party from their UKIP holiday, those put a red rosette on a plant pot areas will go red once again in the north when Corbyn and his brand of Labour has gone. Lib Dems seem to be on their way back and could continue to try and tap into that large percentage of voters who didn't vote to leave (but once we have left that will surely die off and they will have to find other ways to keep those voters).
So what is the point of UKIP now?
From an GE perspective I think lab have the potential to pick up more support from UKIP, especially as it is now imploding, than from the LD who are not disappearing any time soon. By now supporting BREXIT he is positioning to pick up maybe 2 or 3 million votes that might otherwise go to UKIP.
Of course it will take a skilled and articulate communicator, with abundant charisma and leadership skills, to do this, without loosing some support to the Lib Dems and who do labour have Corbin!
&, btw was put by a factor of at least two on the relative odds (schoolboy error). Still think it a good bet, though - will look again late if I have time.
Please, pretty please Spain, do all that good project fear shit you did last time. There might even be something in it for you, *wink*.
Most con/UKIP switchers have gone back to Con, the hard core UKIP votes is small, but the ex-Lab vote is big
"So what is the point of UKIP now?"
To provide political entertainment for the rest of us.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/australia-pre-race-2017.html
Now including two comments, one of which opines that my tip is dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez*.
*This is fake news.
I expect this to adjust his odds a little bit, if it gets picked up by media - currently 6.6.
I'm on at 20, so happy with that.
“There are a lot of people against Brexit in this country, and people are changing their mind. We’re even seeing Labour wobbling and wondering why we’re here. We’re here because of a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric.
“We’re living in a dictatorship. In democracies people are always allowed to change their minds. Over the coming months and years we will fight. Nigel Farage wouldn’t give up. Labour needs to rediscover its mojo, and quickly,” Lammy adds.
Does Lammy always sound this thick, or was he just really trying this time…
https://youtu.be/DsR4Nx-ELgc
A democratic referendum result is not 'complete spin'.
The MP who commands a majority of the Commons becoming PM is not dictatorship, it's Parliamentary democracy.
Of course, you (and all others here) understand that, but it's alarming an actual MP does not.
Still, not the first time he's been an utter fool when it comes to failing to understand how elections and so forth work:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21764636
So the Pound has dropped and the children are creating,
The other half ran away,
Taking all the cash and leaving you with the lumber,
Got a pain in the chest,
Doctor's on strike what you need is a rest.
It's not easy love, but you've got friends you can trust,
Friends will be friends,
When you're in need of love they give you care and attention,
Friends will be friends,
When you're through with life and all hope is lost,
Hold out your hand cos friends will be friends right till the end.
https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/845559353117696000
For what its worth I don't think BREXIT was all one sided, there are some very good rezones to remain, IMO not as good as the reasons to leave, but that's just my opinion.
I am a libertarian not a Democrat, democracy may be better than most other systems but it is not infallible. Just because a decision is democratically made does not make it the optimal solution.
But to suggest that because you did not get your way we live in a dictatorship, is just silly, it takes away from any valid point you may be trying to make, and makes your opponents less not more likely to change their opinion.
Fairy Fella's Masterstroke is where I learnt the word 'tatterdemalion'.
And I can't believe I forgot to repost my most recent blog, given Lammy's dictatorship nonsense:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/benevolent-dictators.html