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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PM will invoke Article 50 next week with the country still totally divided over whether it is the right thing to do
If the Prime Minister was hoping that the ending of the parliamentary approval process for Article 50 would swing opinion more behind the move then she is going to be disappointed.
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There are issues here: reading the hardcore leavers on here, there's very little attempt to win over remainers. They've won, and that's all that matters.
Yes, there are some remainers who will never be won over. However there are many more that could be: and that is the continued job of leavers. Their job was not complete on 23rd June last year.
If they fail, and especially if they continue their triumphalism, they may find the country swinging against them. And that's bad for the country, especially if Brexit turns out to be harder than they think.
(Mr Tyndall is generally an exception to this).
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Police officer has told me someone has been shot outside portcullis house - not clear what's happening f
How about I book a spot for 10 pax at Truckles in Pie Bull Yard, just off Bury Place, for 6pm Weds 29th.
All those in favour say AYE.....
http://news.sky.com/
The latest YouGov tracker is out and as can be seen in the chart the country is still totally divided on whether it is a good thing or a bad thing.
The chart shows no such thing. It is asking whether Brexit is a good idea, not whether or not May should invoke Article 50. These are separate concepts and Remainers who don't understand this are making a category error between policy and process.
Most wouldn't. And neither should they, if it's what they believe in.
The pressure on Cameron would have been immense; as others have recently noted, UKIP would probably be easily on 20%+.
The only way it would have gone as you say above is if leave had been trounced: say 75/25.
OLD THREAD
The poll refers to whether Brexit is the right thing to do or not, not whether it is right to invoke Article 50.
It is not incoherent to believe that Brexit is the wrong thing to do, but it's right to invoke the Article.
Not entirely surprised to find that those who expressed an opinion on Brexit, have not changed their minds. What would be interesting to know is who supports the democratic result and now supports implementing A50.
My total guess/prediction is... If Brexit does go bad... It won't help the lib Dems to say i told you so. It might help Labour to say "we would have done it better" (assuming a change of leadership by then).
If it goes well - support for staying in will be quietly forgotten like support for joining the euro.
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing?
Net agree: -36
Theresa May suggested that Britain would walk away from negotiations if other European Union countries are not prepared to offer a good deal. This would mean Britain leaving the EU without a new trade deal and tariffs being applies to imports and exports between Britain and the EU. Do you think Britain should or should not be prepared to walk away from a bad deal?
Walk Away: 55
Get any deal: 24
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xalfiwu0ed/TimesResults_170118_VI_Trackers_MaySpeech_W.pdf
Of course things can change, but I wouldn't count on a huge swing of sympathy in favour of the EU......
I can imagine that if people are personally feeling the consequences of a bad/lack of deal then blaming the EU for looking after EU interests wont cut it. It's easy tosay we should walk away in the abstract... But if it's your job being lost?
This an an excellent strategy for Labour. Neither fish nor fowl, devoid of clarity and desperately attempting to ensure they hit low twenties in the 2020 general election.
Meanwhile ....In other reports Channel 4 News reporting that Prime Minister Corbyn will receive President Hilary Clinton at his Buckingham Palace residence.
He will accompanied by Foreign Secretary Diane Abbott who has just returned from an overseas trip to North Korea where she has secured a highly successful trade deal to exchange British nuclear technology and fine baking recipes for North Korean aircraft carriers and military parade advisers.
Not a lot of mileage in that one......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39356365
WTF?
Channel 4 News - Edgbaston arrests probably cricket related. Jo Root in custody accused of making it possible for England to win matches.
In longer terms... Voters aren't going to admit they got the decision wrong.
Better to blame the govt for messing up a workable idea (brexit) and say how our breixit would have been much better.
I agree that the government, largely made up of former remainers after all, should have tried harder to bring us together again. It is possible that yesterday's outrage might help with this.
“A no deal scenario is not what we want,” he said.
However, however bad an idea Brexit is, its not as bad an idea as trying to circumvent the result of the referendum.....
We saw messages of support and acts of solidarity from across Europe yesterday and it looks like a number of non-UK EU citizens were directly caught up in what happened. It would be nice to think that this might also register. Despite last June's vote, there is much more that unites us with our European neighbours than divides us. It would be nice if all those negotiating after next week have that at the front of their minds at all times. But that is very doubtful.
The lack of change almost certainly reflects the fact that we are no wiser now than we were last year as to what will actually happen and when, rather than that everyone has a fixed settled view?
We don't like to be bullied. It brings out our stubborn streak. Plenty of the EU apparatchiks fail to understand this part of our national character, and think it instead might shake us into our senses (as they would see it) to Remain.
They will be sorely disappointed. If the EU is unreasonable, I expect public opinion to unite solidly around Mrs. May.
Wrong: 42-45
The public have already signalled that they think the UK government's position is a reasonable one.
This means that the EU are set to take the rap for any failure to agree and it will merely reinforce feelings about the general uselessness of the EU as an entity.
Edit: just kidding
I doubt the majority of the public will notice. Or blame the Tories.
If anything, it appears that voting Leave has repaired the public sector finances and finally killed stagflation/deflation.
Now, my best possible deal will look a lot like EEA/EFTA-Plus (I want a seat at the table in various sectors), given that we are leaving the EU. To others the best possible deal will look a lot like EU membership.
Over time the share of our trade with the EU will continue to shrink as the EU's share of world trade does likewise. But they will remain important and there is so much more that we share, not least our common security concerns as yesterday highlighted, common values and all the consequences of geography.
Let's face it, most people on either side will never admit to being wrong
The advisory referendum result was after all very close and many thought we would remain in the single market.
A better opening would be "All EU citizens resident on 23rd June last year have the right to remain in the UK indefinitely - provided that it is reciprocal for UK citizens resident in EU countries on 23rd June".
In negotiation - try and find things that are positive and create a agreement up front. Build a first bridge....
If this doesn't fly, it will highlight exactly which countries in Europe are the blockers on this. Let them own the "no" position.
Brexit vote: Single market benefit 'largely imaginary'
The trade benefits of belonging to the European Union have been "largely imaginary", according to the social policy think-tank Civitas.
Its analysis argues that exports from non-EU countries to the single market have grown faster than the UK's, since its creation in 1993.
That lends weight to the argument that no EU deal is better than a bad deal, the author said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39356664
Few possess the humility to admit mistakes. It's not really the done thing on the Internet.
I was never fanatically Leave, nor am I fanatically Remain now. It's a complex, difficult question, about which reasonable people should be able to disagree. That's dependent, at least in part, on your personal time horizon. Short term, I see nothing but trouble, though of the 'modest recession' flavour, rather than the End of Days.
As to which Tories lied: Dave, George, Boris, Gove... You can take your pick really - I'd say they all did.
But you're right that TM isn't implicated in even nearly the same way.
We may already know the answer:
And do you think the other member states of the European Union will or will not agree to the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is proposing?
Net agree: -36
Theresa May suggested that Britain would walk away from negotiations if other European Union countries are not prepared to offer a good deal. This would mean Britain leaving the EU without a new trade deal and tariffs being applies to imports and exports between Britain and the EU. Do you think Britain should or should not be prepared to walk away from a bad deal?
Walk Away: 55
Get any deal: 24
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xalfiwu0ed/TimesResults_170118_VI_Trackers_MaySpeech_W.pdf
Of course things can change, but I wouldn't count on a huge swing of sympathy in favour of the EU......
The response to Juncker's threats in the Metro letters section was very telling yesterday. Almost all of them were highly critical of him, some defiantly so.
We don't like to be bullied. It brings out our stubborn streak. Plenty of the EU apparatchiks fail to understand this part of our national character, and think it instead might shake us into our senses (as they would see it) to Remain.
They will be sorely disappointed. If the EU is unreasonable, I expect public opinion to unite solidly around Mrs. May.
They will also expect May to find solutions. Walking away is not an end in itself if it essentially means higher prices, lower inward investment, further public service cuts and significant job losses; as well as all the other stuff that will come on top.
If if if, its almost like you are hoping for your predicted Brexopalypse.
Let's face it, most people on either side will never admit to being wrong
Why would I want my country and its population to be impoverished? I have a family, friends and a business here, as well as deep affection for the the UK and its citizens, I am not sure why you'd think I would want all of them to suffer just to be proved right on an internet message board.
On what basis do you THINK your family and friends will be impoverished?
There is no evidence to suggest that is the case, just hyperbole about apocalypse and poverty.
I was with some very gloomy fund managers (Ruffer and Newton) the other week, both predicting a very poor medium term outlook. I said to the second guy that it was interesting he agreed with the first when markets were surging upwards, and he told me that they didn't agree at all; Ruffer expects an inflationary surge, bad for shares, whilst Newton expect renewed deflationary pressure, also bad for shares. DYOR etc.
https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/844569645952720896
We don't like to be bullied. It brings out our stubborn streak. Plenty of the EU apparatchiks fail to understand this part of our national character, and think it instead might shake us into our senses (as they would see it) to Remain.
They will be sorely disappointed. If the EU is unreasonable, I expect public opinion to unite solidly around Mrs. May.
They will also expect May to find solutions. Walking away is not an end in itself if it essentially means higher prices, lower inward investment, further public service cuts and significant job losses; as well as all the other stuff that will come on top.
If if if, its almost like you are hoping for your predicted Brexopalypse.
Let's face it, most people on either side will never admit to being wrong
Why would I want my country and its population to be impoverished? I have a family, friends and a business here, as well as deep affection for the the UK and its citizens, I am not sure why you'd think I would want all of them to suffer just to be proved right on an internet message board.
On what basis do you THINK your family and friends will be impoverished?
There is no evidence to suggest that is the case, just hyperbole about apocalypse and poverty.
Got it - you did not understand the point I was making.
The 'On This Day' feature on Facebook has just reminded me that I was on my way to a PB drinks do in 2009.
Has a meet up been arranged for next week, I saw it being mentioned a few days ago?
If you are here legally you are very welcome to stay.
Let's see if other EU countries return the compliment, either way our stance should be unequivocal. But let's be honest and realistic - there is not a cat in hell's chance that Spain and France are going to deport wealthy ex pats.
Breaking: seven arrests made relating to attack yesterday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39363297
It depends on the circumstances. If the EU are seen to be obstructive and intransigent they will be blamed, if Theresa May walks out and it is perceived that it is an act of pique she will get the blame.
However, I remain as convinced as ever that a fair deal will be concluded, not satisfying the hard Brexiteers but also not satisfying the soft Brexit lobby, but likely to satisfy approx 70% of the public.
Re Brexit I did vote remain but as an eurosceptic I was ready to accept the vote and back leave. I am not, and never have been, a hard right conservative and have no time for UKIP.
I expect our Prime Minister to negotiate a fair deal for the Country and back her completely. She has her critics but at this time I cannot imagine anyone better or more capable to take on this most difficult of tasks, indeed no recent Prime Minister has faced a work load as complex as Theresa May. She will retain my full support
If if if, its almost like you are hoping for your predicted Brexopalypse.
Let's face it, most people on either side will never admit to being wrong
Why would I want my country and its population to be impoverished? I have a family, friends and a business here, as well as deep affection for the the UK and its citizens, I am not sure why you'd think I would want all of them to suffer just to be proved right on an internet message board.
On what basis do you THINK your family and friends will be impoverished?
There is no evidence to suggest that is the case, just hyperbole about apocalypse and poverty.
Got it - you did not understand the point I was making.
That's because I'm a stupid Leaver no doubt.
There will eventually come a time, and only you can decide when that is, that you accept we voted for Brexit. Hard, soft, good, bad, its happening, suck it up.
BBC Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner, said the indications were that the car used in the attack began it's journey in Birmingham.
"There is no such thing as a 'lone wolf' attack. It may just be one person carrying it out but they would have been in contact with other people," he said.
He said the message from Scotland Yard was that the attacker was not "an unknown person".
I'm sure the same will apply here. Whether reasonable or not unless it becomes an unmitigated success May's government will pay the same price Blair and Blairism paid. March 29th will go down in infamy and she and her government will be the only ones carrying the baby. As so often the real villains like Farage and UKIP and the Tory Ultras will long be forgotten.
Let's face it, most people on either side will never admit to being wrong
Why would I want my country and its population to be impoverished? I have a family, friends and a business here, as well as deep affection for the the UK and its citizens, I am not sure why you'd think I would want all of them to suffer just to be proved right on an internet message board.
On what basis do you THINK your family and friends will be impoverished?
There is no evidence to suggest that is the case, just hyperbole about apocalypse and poverty.
Got it - you did not understand the point I was making.
That's because I'm a stupid Leaver no doubt.
There will eventually come a time, and only you can decide when that is, that you accept we voted for Brexit. Hard, soft, good, bad, its happening, suck it up.
Yes, you are clearly stupid.