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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too ready to bet on the hard right PVV
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For Le Pen, current second round polls are way out of the margin of error either against Macron or against FIllon. However, before betting the farm on a Le Pen defeat, I would wait for the impact of next week's debate.
The TV debates had a massive impact both on the right-wing and left-wing primaries, so next Monday's debate sould be a turning point.
(the debate will only feature the five "big" candidates: Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, Hamon and Mélenchon).
Not clear to me why lib Dems should be down at 1.12 to win without Labour.
Last time they came 5th in a three horse race for second.
Has their polling really improved all that much since 2015?
I've laid a little at 1.14 ish and also put two quid on greens coming second again at 54-1.
The moral of this tale is don't fall for media driven hype. Serious punters should know this.
You know who you are ....
.................................................
Meanwhile I note FPT that @TSE linked to a site that may not be named where yours truly had a historic honourable mention that indicated that @Plato and I should share a room, presumably to exchange notes on our respective pussy recollections.
I fear this feline soiree may never happen. A lost opportunity no doubt.
Meowww ....
:-)
Good to see that the British state might have stopped,pandering to Trump...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/16/gchq-issues-unprecedented-public-statement-dismiss-trump-tower/
... though does that mean we're at the back of the queue again ?
Polling remains an inexact art rather than a science but results well outside the range of probability are undoubtedly an opportunity for the alert punter. I do believe we are seeing a repeat of this phenomenon in France.
https://www.wired.com/2017/03/trumps-budget-break-american-science-today-tomorrow/
By that stage we'll all know not to believe him.
The snag will come if by some fluke in ten thousand he's correct.
(1) France has had a much less fun time of Euro membership than the Netherlands, and the EU is less popular there. With a majority of PVV voters thinking the Euro a good thing, the key plank of their platform was anti-Islam. While anti-Islam is a major part of the FN's appeal, anti-EU sentiment is also important.
(2) But don't over-estimate French Euroscepticism. While I have no data beyond the EU's own Eurobaromoter, the Euro is still supported 2:1 in France (as opposed to 4:1 in the Netherlands). This means Marine's Euroscepticism is not as much of a draw as British punters think.
(3) France has suffered two devastating terrorist attacks in the last three years. Being seen as good on security probably goes a lot further there than in other countries. (This could play badly for Macron.)
(4) France's problems with Muslim integration are not new.
(5) The FN still struggles with its historic issues of antisemitism. I don't think a Dutch Jew would have a problem voting for Geert Wilders. I think French Jews would struggle to vote for MLP.
(6) Remember that back in December 2015 when the FN topped the polls in the first round of the French Regional elections that Paris, Lyon and the French Overseas territories did not vote. Those three places are by far the weakest for the FN.
All together, I still struggle to see MLP getting more than 35% against Macron, or 40% against Fillon in the second round. Given the FN has - like the VVD - repeatedly underperformed its poll scores in actual elections, I think it is entirely possible they will end up on just 22-23% in the first round. I also wonder if Fillon's... errr... issues have led to shy Republicains. (And it's also possible the FN will have a late fade like the PVV.) For that reason, I continue to think the market is underestimating the chance of a Fillon vs Macron final two. Bet accordingly.
Yes, congrats and thanks must go to Alastair for so succinctly pointing out what was in retrospect a near certain winner, yet prior to his advice half decent odds against prices had been widely available.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/15/20170316_EUPOP.jpg
Stating the obvious seems to be necessary where Trump is concerned even though he won't be listening.
Also repeats the much cited poll growth - which the FT obligingly corrects....
On the last independence campaign
“We started at 28 per cent and ended up at 45 per cent * . . . We just started from too low a base.”
* These figures may require clarification: the 28 per cent support for independence — recorded in one poll in October 2012 — was artificially low because one in five respondents were undecided. When Don’t Knows were excluded, the Yes campaign’s support was 34 per cent. Other polls in 2012 put support for independence as high as 45 per cent, where it ultimately finished. It is true that support for Yes did increase during 2014 — from around 40 per cent to 44 per cent, according to poll averages. That came as many undecided voters made up their minds. It was an achievement, though not quite on the scale that Mr Salmond suggests.
https://www.ft.com/content/e248b414-0a37-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
However, going by last night’s BBC TV he’s still believed in his ‘heartland’. There were chants, for example of ‘Lock her up” when Hilary Clinton’s name was mentioned.
I was in Aberdeen yesterday. Chatting to the taxi driver on the way in to town I was amazed that he didn't even mention IndyRef2. The only folk who mentioned it all day were English.
Make of that what you will.
I'm surprised you say this since I always thought the CAP was introduced especially to maintain the French and in particular the French farmers in the manner to which they had grown accustomed.
I suppose the bottom line is that the EU has been very good news for all the six founding members of the EEC (as was) by largely protecting their specific respective interests, whereas by the time we joined the club, we had to accept the rules as drawn for the benefit of others and were even forced to hand them some icing on the cake for good measure, like giving away our fisheries, etc.
Finally, by 23 June last year, the British people woke up to this fact and voted accordingly.
Yesterday's was entertaining and pretty informative re the budget top lines.
FFW to 11 mins in for Mulvaney.
https://youtu.be/b1fi7mo4s5s
Political betting markets show where bettors want to put their money, no more no less. Sometimes bettors are insightful and sometimes they aren't. There is always the danger of fighting the last war.
Mr. Meeks, indeed. Making the best money betting is essentially a game of disagreeing with as many people as possible whilst still being right.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/britains-medieval-libel-laws-kept-away-twitter/
The PVV, CDA, D66 and GL all gained seats and vote share, so it was not a defeat for Wilders, who now leads the 2nd largest party and effectively becomes the LOTO, as the VVD will have to work with the CDA and D66 parties (& 1 other party) to form a multi-party coalition government.
It is true that the PVV didn't do as well as predicted a few weeks ago, but Rutte's neo-Nazi posturing vis-a-vis the Turks in the last few days probably helped the VVD to claw back some support from the PVV and not lose as may seats as their coalition partners.
It must be remembered that MOST punters follow the money, they will back a horse because it's favourite. It would be easy to assume that political punters are shrewder than racing punters but there is no evidence to support that, very few will make long term profits. Most political punters are swayed by their own views in the same way that the hugely supported Man Utd and Liverpool are consistently overbet, they simply bet on what they want to happen, the odds are irrelevant.
"The art of taxation is plucking the goose to extract the most feathers with the least hissing"
* Colbert is a sadly forgotten man who also coined the term "laissez-faire" to describe the best economic policy
(edit) & yes, both credit & thanks for your Netherlands tip.
I could see that a lot of the exact same people who'd made money on Trump/Brexit were backing the PVV all the way through, presumably assuming that their "strategy" of backing the populists, irrespective of what the polls said, might pay off again. Some useless coverage in certain British newspapers probably helped as well.
At Ladbrokes, we were also taking a lot of money on multiples involving Wilders and Le Pen to be successful, which discouraged us from pushing the PVV out to a more realistic price.
There were a few people taking advantage of the consequently generous prices on the VVD (and on Wilders NOT to be PM), but not enough to "correct" the market. I'm pretty sure we'll see the same pattern in France and it'll be interesting to see what happens, particularly in the two weeks between R1 and R2, assuming Le Pen is one of the final two.
A warning, though, that Alastair has made before.Le :Pen will lose, but we can't yet be quite sure that Macron will win. The debate may well clarify things, as Chris says, but momentum is very important in these multi-candidate things (rather like US primaries) and the media like to play the "shock success at debate" card. If Fillon or conceivably Harmon do well, the odds could change.
I echo thanks to Mr Meeks over the Netherlands. Sadly I made the numpty error of the year by assuming that Rutte next PM was a good proxy for VVD win, so am out of my money for months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/want-lead-tories-back-urban-britain-john-lewis-conservatism/
@rcs1000 Put me on to the dutch opportunity, Meeks' piece and foresight on the Erdogan reaction encouraged me to up my stake.
Note that the polls were around 6 seats wrong for the VVD. That certainly doesn't justify PVV favouritism as there was for ages, but it does imply the rags were too long. Particularly the CDA on election night - they are a party with a strong history who surely shouldn't have been 100-1 before the exits.
Also for the 14:30 tip yesterday from one of our newer posters.
But as someone with a big red against Madame Le Pen I do wonder we might be reading too much into the result from The Netherlands.
Front National are more well established than Mr Wilders and we could also have a Spanish 2004 election precedent to worry about.
Or should that be Madame La President?
My French doesn't extent much beyond arriere du peloton and the famous voulez-vous coucher avec moi ce soir.
Amusingly candidates for the locals round my way alternate between 'I'm not a politician' and 'I'm a full time politician' as selling points.
As the fashion now seems for everyone to come on here and boast about their great tips or how much money they've made on exchanges and the like (no one talks much about their losses), I'll join in:
I offered the stayers' hurdle winner yesterday morning:
3.30: NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
My only winner of the week so far albeit with plenty of places and a good number of losses. Probably well down overall but one more day left to dig that hole a shade deeper.
You're right of course and that's why the likes of Shadsy, etc are still in a job!
BTW What's your tip for today stodge?
https://twitter.com/andrewbeatty/status/842492580038430720
As for Madame Le President
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2785156/War-le-words-French-MP-fined-using-sexist-GRAMMAR-calling-female-colleague-Madame-Le-President.html
My point is to make money punting you must detach yourself emotionally, in politics and football that is far from easy, some find it impossible.
He really knew his stuff when I met him.
I would argue that there is not a more populous group of political geeks than PB and we fight like cats in a sack over the outcome of any political event.
I don't but the occasional 10/1 winner makes it all worthwhile.
By the by, good call on matters Dutch and it was there in front of everyone. After 2016, however, polls and polling (except when they show big Conservative leads) are widely derided and the expectation becomes that the underdog populist will win out over the establishment favourite.
Mr. Meeks, it's some years ago now, but Kubica failed to get the Monaco pole by about 0.002s. I'd tipped it at 8 or so. That was bloody annoying.
Today we go
2.10 Vosne Romanee
3.30 Native River
4.10 Wonderful Charm
5.30 Dandridge
The first and last are proper job horses, laid out for the race. Native River will run them ragged though I suspect he'd prefer it softer. Wonderful Charm at 6/1 is an e/w steal against the short fav. Try some small stakes e/w doubles and trebles as well as win singles.
Be lucky.
Just a Patent today as frankly it's not quite as strong a card as previous days and after the Gold Cup it all gets a bit messy.
Prices currently with Hills:
1.30: SOLDIER IN ACTION (20/1)
2.50: AUGUSTA KATE (6/1)
3.30: DJAKADAM (10/3)
Good Luck to All.
In Sweden and Finland, county councils run most of the NHS. In Canada, provinces run most of the NHS. They typically have a population of a few million, not 64 million. That's devolution.
Yes, thanks for the sound tips on the Netherlands and before that Stoke.
If you want a film that is genuinely confusing, then Shane Carrith's Primer is for you. I've seen it many times and still don't clearly know who is when. A brilliant film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUzy-xPf0MI
It's also odd to have a film that is so confusing that essentially has only two characters.