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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-rid

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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,654

    kjh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reason #34342 for the housing shortage:

    A few years ago I applied for planning permission. The deadline was 24/12 and permission was granted that day. It must have been one hell of a party:

    I received permission to build a conservatory and convert my garage into accommodation. I actually applied to extend my garage and build a porch (this was a very uncontroversial tick box exercise).

    Apparently according to the description in the documents I then received my house is both semi detached and detached with a small and a large front garden on a corner plot. The nearest corner is 20 houses away. The measurements to the boundaries were interesting!

    Other than that it was spot on.

    There was clearly quite a bit of cutting and pasting from at least one other application that had nothing to do with me.

    I thanked them for the permission, but pointed out it was useless. It was corrected a number of weeks later, but interestingly they wouldn't change the decision date because that would have meant they had missed their deadline.
    Don't start me on planning officers. We did major work on our house six years ago, which included an extension and new roof. It is a modern-ish 50s house. The new plans made it look more modern.

    We were turned down because the design of the new roof was not in keeping with rest of street. The street is bog-standard, a complete mongrel as far as design goes - a number of brand new bungalows, a couple of strips of pre-war small semis, two or three detached, 1970s newish builds and at one end a couple of 1920s detached houses. So which bit was it not in keeping with?

    Meanwhile, a mate, who lives in a Conservation zone, fought and lost against plans to knock down a charming 1920s bungalow in his street and replace it with a brand new, ultra modern, architect designed house.

    Bonkers.
    I've been lucky because the only things I've needed planning permission for have been trivial as far as permission is concerned, but this has reminded me of a couple of issues on our previous house.

    We converted 1/2 of our garage into accommodation. The change was entirely internal. A man came around to see if it impacted any trees.

    We had a loft conversion. This required a dormer for the turn in the stairs. The parish council requested that dormer be moved to the back:

    a) The dormer goes where the stairs are - we have no choice.
    b) It was at the back anyway

    We planned to have 2 velux windows at the front. The plans were passed with one change which was limiting it to 1. As this was part of the overall plans they could do this, but adding a velux did not need planning permission so I added the 2nd 1 minute after the first!

    All bonkers.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711

    French election: An interesting opinion poll on attitudes to the FN:

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/07/35003-20170307ARTFIG00051-les-idees-du-fn-progressent-dans-l-opinion-mais-pas-l-image-du-parti.php

    Key points:

    - 58% of French voters think that the FN is a danger to French democracy, that is 10% more than a survey found in 2012. Of course, that increase might be because the prospect of a President Le Pen seems a more imminent danger than it did in 2012.

    - The party does especially badly amongst women, people who work at manager level or above, and people over 65..

    - 29% of voters say they either have voted FN in the past and will do so again (17%), or that they might do so for the first time (12%). A further 3% say they have voted FN in the past but won't do so again.

    - Notwithstanding the unpopularity of the party, some of its policies are more popular, especially amongst blue-collar workers.

    My take on this is that Marine Le Pen is going to be beaten quite easily in the second round. When push comes to shove, and it's Le Pen vs (probably) Macron, I think voters from quite a wide range of existing positions will vote for the Not Le Pen candidate.

    All very well if it's Macron v Le Pen (whichn I agree is the most likely scenario)

    Where it would become more problematical is if Fillon improves slightly and Macron fades enough to put Fillon into the final. Then we have a situation where 58% probably would not vote for Le Pen because she is a threat to democracy v a man who 71% think should not even be running for President.

    That would seem to indicate that, in that situation, a lot of people might just not bother to vote for either.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

  • Options
    Avalanche in Tignes - has hit a blue on-piste run which is very unusual. A lot of inexperienced skiers likely to have been hit in that case...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/07/tignes-avalanche-skiers-french-resort-alps
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BudG said:

    All very well if it's Macron v Le Pen (whichn I agree is the most likely scenario)

    Where it would become more problematical is if Fillon improves slightly and Macron fades enough to put Fillon into the final. Then we have a situation where 58% probably would not vote for Le Pen because she is a threat to democracy v a man who 71% think should not even be running for President.

    That would seem to indicate that, in that situation, a lot of people might just not bother to vote for either.

    In such a scenario, I think the 'danger to democracy' motive would trump any doubts about Fillon, especially since (by definition) if he actually makes it to the second round he can't be too unpopular.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. G, Fillon's intransigence does suggest he'll end up staying on, until the first round. Daft sod.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288

    Avalanche in Tignes - has hit a blue on-piste run which is very unusual. A lot of inexperienced skiers likely to have been hit in that case...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/07/tignes-avalanche-skiers-french-resort-alps

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/839071114433335296

    BBC implying all are accounted for, and no victims.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    More tales of lawyers behaving badly...Makes own pron, uploads to pirate bay, sues people for copyright theft...

    https://torrentfreak.com/prenda-attorney-pleads-guilty-to-operating-a-piracy-honeypot-170307/
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    "William Hague urges snap UK election to secure 'stronger' Brexit position"

    http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/alliance-news/detail/1488868552125273000.html
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    You we talked about the guy who faked his CV and got a job running an NHS trust...Are we sure Ben Carson is a qualified brain surgeon?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4287880/Ben-Carson-likens-slaves-immigrants-speech.html
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited March 2017

    BudG said:

    All very well if it's Macron v Le Pen (whichn I agree is the most likely scenario)

    Where it would become more problematical is if Fillon improves slightly and Macron fades enough to put Fillon into the final. Then we have a situation where 58% probably would not vote for Le Pen because she is a threat to democracy v a man who 71% think should not even be running for President.

    That would seem to indicate that, in that situation, a lot of people might just not bother to vote for either.

    In such a scenario, I think the 'danger to democracy' motive would trump any doubts about Fillon, especially since (by definition) if he actually makes it to the second round he can't be too unpopular.
    He has a hard core of support, just as Le Pen does. On this morning's latest poll, he would have to gain just 3% in popularity and Macron lose the same, in order to qualify. Not sure a 3% increase in popularity would signal that he has become popular enough to to persuade enough of the 71% who do not think he should be running at all, to vote for him 2nd round.

    It would be very tight and would come down to turnout. I would not want to be laying at odds much less than evens on either of them in that scenario.

    This morning's Opionway poll:

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091
    edited March 2017

    In such a scenario, I think the 'danger to democracy' motive would trump any doubts about Fillon, especially since (by definition) if he actually makes it to the second round he can't be too unpopular.

    That's a strange argument to make when the premise is that the other candidate who's made it into the second round is too unpopular.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Mr. G, Fillon's intransigence does suggest he'll end up staying on, until the first round. Daft sod.

    It appears that way. Does he not realise some of us have large profits on Baroin that would go to waste???

    Some people have no consideration for others.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline.

    The Sentencing Council for England and Wales says offending may be partly a product of discrimination and "negative experiences of authority"."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091
    edited March 2017
    Canvassing the other day
    Labour people vote for May
    Looking in their eyes
    I see a memory
    I never realised, how electable you made me
    Oh Mandy!
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932

    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    Hi Mike. Which street were you born in? I was born very close to this constituency on Brooklands Rd in Sale.

    Mike wasn't born, he was conceived and created by the amalgamation of stunning Liberal bar charts in post war Britain.
    I was born in a nursing home in Victoria Park.
    I lived for 4 years in Victoria Park. I was active in local Liberal politics and still have a Terry Lacey badge for the 1967 by-election.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited March 2017
    AndyJS said:

    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline.

    The Sentencing Council for England and Wales says offending may be partly a product of discrimination and "negative experiences of authority"."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265

    Well we can't possibly send them to prison then - what more negative experience of authority can there be than the judiciary sending them for incarceration? Poor dears.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Stephen Hawking speaking to today’s Times:

    “I regard Corbyn as a disaster. His heart is in the right place and many of his policies are sound but he has allowed himself to be portrayed as a left-wing extremist. I think he should step down for the sake of the party.”

    Nearly as bonkers as corbyn...Sound policies..Portrayed as left wing extremist...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Urquhart, indeed.

    Mr. Mark, raised that article earlier myself. It's also an incentive to falsely claim past discrimination as a mitigating circumstance.

    Mr. G, the selfishly and economic folly of Fillon is gross indeed.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    Of course, you didn't say any such things about him at the time. You simply slavishly follow Theresa May and her views. In fact, are you Theresa?
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    dr_spyn said:

    Macron's enemy is time – still a long way to go until polling day. Does France have early voting?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BudG said:

    He has a hard core of support, just as Le Pen does. On this morning's latest poll, he would have to gain just 3% in popularity and Macron lose the same, in order to qualify. Not sure a 3% increase in popularity would signal that he has become popular enough to to persuade enough of the 71% who do not think he should be running at all, to vote for him 2nd round.

    It would be very tight and would come down to turnout. I would not want to be laying at odds much less than evens on either of them in that scenario.

    This morning's Opionway poll:

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

    That poll has Fillon winning by 58% to 42% in the second round, not very different from the 60% / 40% figures for a Macron/Le Pen second round. Although I'm a bit sceptical of these hypothetical match-ups, that does suggest that I'm right that the anti-Le Pen motive would trump other considerations.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    Avalanche in Tignes - has hit a blue on-piste run which is very unusual. A lot of inexperienced skiers likely to have been hit in that case...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/07/tignes-avalanche-skiers-french-resort-alps

    Thankfully no (serious) casualties. Blue runs are by definition very accessible which may be why the French rescue services were able to prevent any loss of life.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Nabavi, aye, that's been my view throughout. Le Pen will have a very hard time winning.

    If it is her and Macron in round two, I do wonder how to proceed. I'm a tiny bit green on her and pleasingly green on him. Hedge, or stick?

    Anyway, it would've been miles better if it were Macron and Baroin/Juppe, but that now seems unlikely. Bloody Fillon.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091
    No 10 issues non-rebuttal of Hague call for an early election.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39188042

    A No 10 source told the BBC it was not something Prime Minister Theresa May "plans to do or wishes to do".
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Mr. Urquhart, indeed.

    Mr. Mark, raised that article earlier myself. It's also an incentive to falsely claim past discrimination as a mitigating circumstance.

    Mr. G, the selfishly and economic folly of Fillon is gross indeed.

    The thing is that even if one has been genuinely unfairly discriminated against, I don't see why that should be any mitigating factor if one commits a crime. There are legal remedies one can pursue for discrimination. There should never be an excuse for pursuing illegal ones.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    On 3, does the government try to form before or after a vote?


    The government stays in place until an alternative government is formed. If Her Maj is advised that Mr Corbyn is likely to have the confidence of the House, she'll appoint him as PM and he then has to win a vote of confidence to confirm it and prevent the GE happening. In practice, Her Majesty's advisors would take soundings and rapidly conclude that there's zero chance of Mr Corbyn having the confidence of the House. Hell, he hasn't even got the confidence of his own Shadow Cabinet!
    That is far from clear constitutionally . The Balfour/Campbell-Bannerman precedent of December 1905 has been mentioned by some commentators as implying that Corbyn could be appointed as caretaker PM for the election period on the basis that May had already given up.
    JustinSmallStraws seems to be refering to himself in the third person, now.

    'Some commentators' indeed!
    I seem to recall David Herdson making a similar point!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. F, not only that, it's only open to non-whites:
    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265

    If you're white and discriminated against, it doesn't matter.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    So are you going to call an early election then?
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    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    edited March 2017


    If it is her and Macron in round two, I do wonder how to proceed. I'm a tiny bit green on her and pleasingly green on him. Hedge, or stick?

    From an entirely value viewpoint you shouldn't worry about your previous position when deciding the correct next move. It ought to be determined solely on the odds, and your judgement of those odds.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
    :) I don't think I am obsessed by anyone's identity – I couldn't care less who you or anyone else is – I just wonder if Carlotta is in fact Theresa May, given her views are identical to those of Theresa May. What are the chances of such a coincidence in a finite universe?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    Bojabob said:

    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
    :) I don't think I am obsessed by anyone's identity – I couldn't care less who you or anyone else is – I just wonder if Carlotta is in fact Theresa May, given her views are identical to those of Theresa May. What are the chances of such a coincidence in a finite universe?
    You say you couldn't care less about it, but then proceed to ask the same question again.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Mr. F, not only that, it's only open to non-whites:
    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265

    If you're white and discriminated against, it doesn't matter.


    That's just racist; discriminating on the basis of race.

    It's a stupid guideline, but if it exists it should apply equally.

  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
    :) I don't think I am obsessed by anyone's identity – I couldn't care less who you or anyone else is – I just wonder if Carlotta is in fact Theresa May, given her views are identical to those of Theresa May. What are the chances of such a coincidence in a finite universe?
    You say you couldn't care less about it, but then proceed to ask the same question again.
    I haven't asked you who you are, ever, as far as I recall. I'm merely interested as to whether Carlotta is in fact Theresa May. Wouldn't having the PM on here be interesting to most PBers?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
    :) I don't think I am obsessed by anyone's identity – I couldn't care less who you or anyone else is – I just wonder if Carlotta is in fact Theresa May, given her views are identical to those of Theresa May. What are the chances of such a coincidence in a finite universe?
    You say you couldn't care less about it, but then proceed to ask the same question again.
    Self-awareness is not one of bobajobabobabobajobajob's strong suits......
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    As we discussed last night, if you live in the West, transferring to the SDLP should be a no-brainer. Not only is it far preferable to get SDLP to SF, a fair number of them may be willing to reciprocate. A striking number of SDLP voters in Fermanagh South Tyrone transferred to the UUP instead of SF (so many in fact, that even Maurice Morrow only finished 300 votes behind the last SF candidate).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    What was the overall transfer flow in % terms from UUP -> DUP and UUP -> DUP this election. Foster seems to want the UUP to be a mini DUP, where unionism trumps everything and sod all N Ire's other issues & government incompetence.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:

    I thought I'd stumbled into 'guesstheidentityoftheposter.com'......
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:


    If it is her and Macron in round two, I do wonder how to proceed. I'm a tiny bit green on her and pleasingly green on him. Hedge, or stick?

    From an entirely value viewpoint you shouldn't worry about your previous position when deciding the correct next move. It ought to be determined solely on the odds, and your judgement of those odds.
    Nearly true. But a true pedant would point out two issues:

    (a) Betfair's commission structure encourages levelling off - i.e. if you back something that you are red on you get the full price; if you press up on a green you will pay commission on the extra winnings.

    (b) Bankroll management (as per the Kelly criterion) also suggests [an element of] levelling off is better in the long run.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.
  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Pulpstar said:

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    What was the overall transfer flow in % terms from UUP -> DUP and UUP -> DUP this election. Foster seems to want the UUP to be a mini DUP, where unionism trumps everything and sod all N Ire's other issues & government incompetence.
    What is the likely prognosis for NI? Alliance designate as nationalist to send Michelle into the First Ministry seems a longshot. So what else?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    tpfkar said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    On 3, does the government try to form before or after a vote?


    The government stays in place until an alternative government is formed. If Her Maj is advised that Mr Corbyn is likely to have the confidence of the House, she'll appoint him as PM and he then has to win a vote of confidence to confirm it and prevent the GE happening. In practice, Her Majesty's advisors would take soundings and rapidly conclude that there's zero chance of Mr Corbyn having the confidence of the House. Hell, he hasn't even got the confidence of his own Shadow Cabinet!
    That is far from clear constitutionally . The Balfour/Campbell-Bannerman precedent of December 1905 has been mentioned by some commentators as implying that Corbyn could be appointed as caretaker PM for the election period on the basis that May had already given up.
    JustinSmallStraws seems to be refering to himself in the third person, now.

    'Some commentators' indeed!
    I've mentioned that instance before.

    It is completely unknown how HM would act if a government No Confidenced itself. There is no real precedent though and it'd put the Palace in a very difficult position. If she refused to call Corbyn, she could be accused of partisanship; if she did, it'd look absurd.

    But absurd or not, it'd be constitutionally correct, although she ought to ask senior Tories first, given the Con majority. But after that, expert opinion (from Bogdanor, for example) is that she should call the LotO. Obviously, he'd lose a VoC but what'd happen then is just as unknowable. He might be asked to resign (or be dismissed), and May asked again but would that be tenable if she (May) refused to meet parliament? I'm not sure it would. That could leave Corbyn in place until an election.
    Wouldn't Corbyn just ignore the vote of confidence on the grounds that he has the support he needs "in the movement"?

    Still can't believe that we are giving Gorton - Gorton! - any discussion rather than assuming Labour and giving it minimal coverage, like several Labour seats had in the last parliament. If Labour are having to deploy resources here for a hold they will get stretched beyond belief in a general election campaign.
    Gorton - albeit on different boundaries - nearly went Tory in 1955 - 1959 - and the November 1967 by election.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091
    Essexit said:

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.

    Compared with Macron he's over the hill already anyway. The next leadership contender is probably someone currently boosting his/her bank balance but who is 10 years younger.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    I take it you'll be applying for your DUP membership card shortly, then? :)

    Being a moderate unionist in NI must be as depressing as being a Blairite in Labour right now.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Pulpstar, yeah. I was just hoping Baroin/Juppe would get into the contest.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Pulpstar said:


    If it is her and Macron in round two, I do wonder how to proceed. I'm a tiny bit green on her and pleasingly green on him. Hedge, or stick?

    From an entirely value viewpoint you shouldn't worry about your previous position when deciding the correct next move. It ought to be determined solely on the odds, and your judgement of those odds.
    Nearly true. But a true pedant would point out two issues:

    (a) Betfair's commission structure encourages levelling off - i.e. if you back something that you are red on you get the full price; if you press up on a green you will pay commission on the extra winnings.

    (b) Bankroll management (as per the Kelly criterion) also suggests [an element of] levelling off is better in the long run.
    Good post.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851
    Pulpstar said:

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    What was the overall transfer flow in % terms from UUP -> DUP and UUP -> DUP this election. Foster seems to want the UUP to be a mini DUP, where unionism trumps everything and sod all N Ire's other issues & government incompetence.
    At this stage, it looks as though there were a fair amount of UUP/SDLP transfers and the reverse. It gained the SDLP seats in Lagan Valley, East Londonderry, and Upper Bann, and UUP a seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

    The DUP seem to regard their true enemy as being other Unionist parties.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053

    Essexit said:

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.

    Compared with Macron he's over the hill already anyway. The next leadership contender is probably someone currently boosting his/her bank balance but who is 10 years younger.
    If Macron wins he will likely be President for at least a decade
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    Bojabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    When something bloody stupid needs saying, Arlene Foster is the woman to step up to the plate.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/i-want-one-party-for-unionism-says-dups-arlene-foster-35507746.html

    What was the overall transfer flow in % terms from UUP -> DUP and UUP -> DUP this election. Foster seems to want the UUP to be a mini DUP, where unionism trumps everything and sod all N Ire's other issues & government incompetence.
    What is the likely prognosis for NI? Alliance designate as nationalist to send Michelle into the First Ministry seems a longshot. So what else?
    The UUP would also have to back SF for her to become FM
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    The difficulty in judging chancellors is that the government can only change the enivironment in which the private economy prospers in small ways, primarily by getting out of the way.

    Osborne may well have made some positive changes but they are likely to be hidden.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.

    Compared with Macron he's over the hill already anyway. The next leadership contender is probably someone currently boosting his/her bank balance but who is 10 years younger.
    If Macron wins he will likely be President for at least a decade
    Either that or an abject failure. He has a chance to go down as one of the most consequential leaders in post-war history.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    Bojabob said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Macron's enemy is time – still a long way to go until polling day. Does France have early voting?
    40% is also a good base to start from for Le Pen in the runoff
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    On 3, does the government try to form before or after a vote?


    The government stays in place until an alternative government is formed. If Her Maj is advised that Mr Corbyn is likely to have the confidence of the House, she'll appoint him as PM and he then has to win a vote of confidence to confirm it and prevent the GE happening. In practice, Her Majesty's advisors would take soundings and rapidly conclude that there's zero chance of Mr Corbyn having the confidence of the House. Hell, he hasn't even got the confidence of his own Shadow Cabinet!
    That is far from clear constitutionally . The Balfour/Campbell-Bannerman precedent of December 1905 has been mentioned by some commentators as implying that Corbyn could be appointed as caretaker PM for the election period on the basis that May had already given up.
    JustinSmallStraws seems to be refering to himself in the third person, now.

    'Some commentators' indeed!
    I've mentioned that instance before.

    It is completely unknown how HM would act if a government No Confidenced itself. There is no real precedent though and it'd put the Palace in a very difficult position. If she refused to call Corbyn, she could be accused of partisanship; if she did, it'd look absurd.

    snip.
    Repeal of the ludicrous Fixed Term Act is the solution.
    Can't one sentence be added to the FTPA saying it expires 30/03/2017 or something?

    Robert Hazell thinks repeal is actually rather more difficult than it sounds:

    "There is also brave talk about repealing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act: for example, in the backbench debate last October. But this is wishful thinking, because repeal would be far from straightforward. It would require legislation, which would have to pass both Houses, with particular difficulties in the Lords. The legislation would face technical and political difficulties. The political difficulty is that reverting to the status quo ante would confer on the Prime Minister the advantage of choosing the date of the next election."


    https://constitution-unit.com/2015/05/22/can-david-cameron-call-a-second-election-how-does-that-fit-with-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act/
    All the govt has to do is pass a one line enabling bill for the election "Notwithstanding the provisions of the FTPA, ..."
    To which there would doubtless be dozens of amendments tabled!
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    The difficulty in judging chancellors is that the government can only change the enivironment in which the private economy prospers in small ways, primarily by getting out of the way.

    Osborne may well have made some positive changes but they are likely to be hidden.
    Fair enough, but we can also judge Osborne by his self-imposed metric of reducing the deficit. He didn't hit his rather unambitious targets.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,708

    Mr. F, not only that, it's only open to non-whites:
    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265

    If you're white and discriminated against, it doesn't matter.

    Mr D., are you watching the F1 testing ?
    The level of detail on the Ferrari's aero is quite surprising. They look better prepared than for a number of years.

    And another story on their engine development:
    https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/ferrari-evaluating-radical-double-anchor-injector-idea-879930/

    Still wondering whether to have a punt on them for the constructors'...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Essexit said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.
    I agree - I know some of our younger posters (who went to second tier universities) are more impressionable and still carry a torch for George......but his tour des Fat Cats was either a colossal mistake, or a sign that he knows the game is up.....
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,708

    Mr. F, not only that, it's only open to non-whites:
    "Judges should consider whether a young criminal has suffered discrimination as an ethnic minority before deciding their sentence, under a new guideline."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39187265

    If you're white and discriminated against, it doesn't matter.

    Strictly speaking, if you're white and in an ethnic minority (however the law defines that these days), and discriminated against, then it might.
  • Options
    @ProfChalmers: Yeah, no-one had ever heard of this Hawking guy before he had a go at Corbyn to boost his profile.‬

    https://twitter.com/mrmarksteel/status/839074994659414016
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. B, not watching, but I am keeping an eye on the BBC live feed. Cheers for the engine updates, not read much of that on the BBC (good for headlines, less so for detail).

    Depends what odds you can get. The Ladbrokes market won't be up again until after the test, but Ferrari were 10 there (I think) for the title.

    I haven't backed them.

    You could also consider something like Vettel each way for the title, fifth the odds covers top 3.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,708
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. B (2), yeah, my mistake. It's only white British being discriminated against.

    Mr. Eagles, that's an astounding tweet. If you asked the public to name one British scientist still alive, the vast majority would go for Hawking. I think he's wrong about politics, but the idea he has no profile is ridiculous.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    On 3, does the government try to form before or after a vote?


    The government stays in place until an alternative government is formed. If Her Maj is advised that Mr Corbyn is likely to have the confidence of the House, she'll appoint him as PM and he then has to win a vote of confidence to confirm it and prevent the GE happening. In practice, Her Majesty's advisors would take soundings and rapidly conclude that there's zero chance of Mr Corbyn having the confidence of the House. Hell, he hasn't even got the confidence of his own Shadow Cabinet!
    That is far from clear constitutionally . The Balfour/Campbell-Bannerman precedent of December 1905 has been mentioned by some commentators as implying that Corbyn could be appointed as caretaker PM for the election period on the basis that May had already given up.
    JustinSmallStraws seems to be refering to himself in the third person, now.

    'Some commentators' indeed!
    I've mentioned that instance before.

    It is completely unknown how HM would act if a government No Confidenced itself. There is no real precedent though and it'd put the Palace in a very difficult position. If she refused to call Corbyn, she could be accused of partisanship; if she did, it'd look absurd.

    But absurd or not, it'd be constitutionally correct, although she ought to ask senior Tories first, given the Con majority. But after that, expert opinion (from Bogdanor, for example) is that she should call the LotO. Obviously, he'd lose a VoC but what'd happen then is just as unknowable. He might be asked to resign (or be dismissed), and May asked again but would that be tenable if she (May) refused to meet parliament? I'm not sure it would. That could leave Corbyn in place until an election.
    Wouldn't Corbyn just ignore the vote of confidence on the grounds that he has the support he needs "in the movement"?

    Still can't believe that we are giving Gorton - Gorton! - any discussion rather than assuming Labour and giving it minimal coverage, like several Labour seats had in the last parliament. If Labour are having to deploy resources here for a hold they will get stretched beyond belief in a general election campaign.
    Gorton - albeit on different boundaries - nearly went Tory in 1955 - 1959 - and the November 1967 by election.
    Gorton is now majority renting and full of students and with a high Muslim population, in 2015 the Tories came behind the Greens in the seat despite winning nationally,it is one of the most left-wing seats in the country
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Greens can't do well here then they are probably destined to remain a 1 seat party for some considerable time.

    The Greens - like Labour - would need to make a big issue of the LDs having been the 'Tories little helpers'.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    In a funny sort of way I find that reassuring; those don't sound like the actions of a man who considers himself a future leadership contender. If he did he might be networking within the party, as it is he seems to be thinking about life after Parliament.

    Compared with Macron he's over the hill already anyway. The next leadership contender is probably someone currently boosting his/her bank balance but who is 10 years younger.
    If Macron wins he will likely be President for at least a decade
    Either that or an abject failure. He has a chance to go down as one of the most consequential leaders in post-war history.
    No pressure then
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Anyway, must be off. Be interesting to see how the testing goes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273
    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 4m4 minutes ago

    So, HMRC are refusing to say whether the leader of the opposition's salary is regarded as a salary or benefit for tax purposes.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,849

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    Whether he was doing a good job or a bad job is relevant, but the speechifying is hardly cutting - he got paid huge amounts for very little work, and making a speech to banks is at worst embarrassing, compared to the sorts of things one could do to make money. Given it takes little time it hardly has an impact on whether he has or has not gotten to know his party.

    This just seems to confirm May was indeed the one who leaked how she upbraided him to make herself look good, rather than simply sack him.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,849
    Bojabob said:

    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    RobD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Shall I put you down as "undecided"?

    George's ticking time-bomb legacy: Insidious steal taxes. Deeply flawed gimmicks. Failed saving schemes. George Osborne was fired months ago - but on the eve of the Budget, a damning analysis exposes the poisonous inheritance he left Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4288242/George-Osborne-s-poisonous-legacy-failed-gimmicks.html


    I grew steadily less impressed with Osborne over time.

    He would have made a decent Labour chancellor I suppose.

    I thought the most cutting obssrvation:e
    Tellingly, when Theresa May dumped him from her Cabinet last summer after the failure of his misguided Project Fear during the EU referendum campaign, she suggested he might like to spend some time ‘getting to know your party’.
    Instead, Osborne has spent more time boosting his bank balance. Last year, his extra-parliamentary earnings — mostly thanks to speeches to financial fat cats across the world — were £628,000.
    Meanwhile, his successors have to defuse all the explosive devices he planted and fight the fires he started.

    In fact, are you Theresa?
    You do seem to obsess about posters' identities.....we've discussed this before....have you sought help?
    Quite ironic given Bojabob has trouble remembering their own identity :smiley:
    :) I don't think I am obsessed by anyone's identity – I couldn't care less who you or anyone else is – I just wonder if Carlotta is in fact Theresa May, given her views are identical to those of Theresa May. What are the chances of such a coincidence in a finite universe?
    You say you couldn't care less about it, but then proceed to ask the same question again.
    I haven't asked you who you are, ever, as far as I recall. I'm merely interested as to whether Carlotta is in fact Theresa May. Wouldn't having the PM on here be interesting to most PBers?
    I'd be concerned about her judgement both in spending time on here she could be spending more usefully in other areas, but also for venturing below the line on a political article, in itself a sure sign of skewed judgement.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,311
    Interesting. I thought there was something suspicious about the masked men stalking that reporter who went there on the InfoWars offer the other week. I'm sure he's on the level, but it smacked of being staged for his benefit.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,849

    No 10 issues non-rebuttal of Hague call for an early election.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39188042

    A No 10 source told the BBC it was not something Prime Minister Theresa May "plans to do or wishes to do".

    Seems fairly clear - never rule anything out, but she won't engineer one for blatant partisan advantage as suggested.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 4m4 minutes ago

    So, HMRC are refusing to say whether the leader of the opposition's salary is regarded as a salary or benefit for tax purposes.

    HMRC are useless with queries. I asked them what their rules were regarding an obscure intrastat/VAT query I had and they replied that I should ask an accountant !
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,849

    BudG said:

    He has a hard core of support, just as Le Pen does. On this morning's latest poll, he would have to gain just 3% in popularity and Macron lose the same, in order to qualify. Not sure a 3% increase in popularity would signal that he has become popular enough to to persuade enough of the 71% who do not think he should be running at all, to vote for him 2nd round.

    It would be very tight and would come down to turnout. I would not want to be laying at odds much less than evens on either of them in that scenario.

    This morning's Opionway poll:

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

    That poll has Fillon winning by 58% to 42% in the second round, not very different from the 60% / 40% figures for a Macron/Le Pen second round. Although I'm a bit sceptical of these hypothetical match-ups, that does suggest that I'm right that the anti-Le Pen motive would trump other considerations.
    Seems so. I almost feel sorry for her.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017

    twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/839019972844216321

    Could this be fake news about fake news about fake news...
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    Off topic: I've noticed recently some frankly amazing disparities in spending between regions for different things. Dorset vs Tower Hamlets for education. Scotland vs England for per capita average spending. etc. Makes me wonder how overall spending plans get disbursed and managed regionally.
    Should governments try to make public service spending roughly equal everywhere? If so should we push all towards the average, cut the spendy areas or splurge in Dorset so to speak?
    What's the PB commentariat view?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    I'd be very very happy to lay "Fuel in the tank" at 2-1.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    No sign of any by election fallout in the latest ICM poll beyond a small decline in UKIP support. Strange to say that a Labour rating of 28% is relatively ok for them from ICM - in terms of their poll findings since last Summer. We have to go back to mid- July to find them polling higher than their recent 26% - 28% range.
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    edited March 2017
    "Gorton - albeit on different boundaries - nearly went Tory in 1955 - 1959 - and the November 1967 by election."
    ...
    "Gorton is now majority renting and full of students and with a high Muslim population, in 2015 the Tories came behind the Greens in the seat despite winning nationally,it is one of the most left-wing seats in the country."
    ...
    The Tory candidate in 1967 was Winston Spencer Churchill. Name recognition may have helped a little. The previous Gorton by-election, in 1942, was caused by the elevation to the peerage of Hilary Benn's grandfather.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Labour polling figures and top gear audience numbers both in a battle to see how low they can go.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    New Republican healthcare plan released!

    Doesn't seem to be that popular with conservatives or (unsurprisingly) liberals.
    Sounds like good results for the rich and the young, bad news for elderly, sick and poor.

    Keeps the Medicaid expansion until 2020 but freezes it.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,708
    Patrick said:

    Off topic: I've noticed recently some frankly amazing disparities in spending between regions for different things. Dorset vs Tower Hamlets for education. Scotland vs England for per capita average spending. etc. Makes me wonder how overall spending plans get disbursed and managed regionally.
    Should governments try to make public service spending roughly equal everywhere? If so should we push all towards the average, cut the spendy areas or splurge in Dorset so to speak?
    What's the PB commentariat view?

    Well, the government are making an effort to do something about this in education, at least:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/schools-national-funding-formula-stage-2

    Problem is that in an austerity environment, you end up with as many losers as winners, so run into all sorts of political problems - particularly as there is an inborn strong psychological bias towards feeling losses more than gains.
    And if you try to avoid penalising the current advantaged, it becomes a very expensive project indeed.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    The PM:

    Today the UK is placed 16th out of the world’s 20 developed economies when it comes to how many people have a technical education. So tomorrow this government will set out the biggest overhaul of post-16 education in seventy years with a multi-billion pound drive to improve technical training, including new technical versions of A-Levels and 900 hours of teaching each year.

    https://www.facebook.com/notes/theresa-may/my-mission-is-to-increase-the-capacity-diversity-of-our-school-system-so-that-ev
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    Joyous and civic my arse

    A senior SNP councillor has refused to apologise for a rant about “quislings” and “red coats” despite being condemned by Nicola Sturgeon.

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/382018/councillors-silence-over-reference-to-quislings/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    BudG said:

    He has a hard core of support, just as Le Pen does. On this morning's latest poll, he would have to gain just 3% in popularity and Macron lose the same, in order to qualify. Not sure a 3% increase in popularity would signal that he has become popular enough to to persuade enough of the 71% who do not think he should be running at all, to vote for him 2nd round.

    It would be very tight and would come down to turnout. I would not want to be laying at odds much less than evens on either of them in that scenario.

    This morning's Opionway poll:

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

    That poll has Fillon winning by 58% to 42% in the second round, not very different from the 60% / 40% figures for a Macron/Le Pen second round. Although I'm a bit sceptical of these hypothetical match-ups, that does suggest that I'm right that the anti-Le Pen motive would trump other considerations.
    Seems so. I almost feel sorry for her.
    40% for Le Pen already would be just 5% behind Trumps total and over double her father's total in 2002, even that result would show how she has transformed the FN from a minor to a major party
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,091

    The PM:

    Today the UK is placed 16th out of the world’s 20 developed economies when it comes to how many people have a technical education. So tomorrow this government will set out the biggest overhaul of post-16 education in seventy years with a multi-billion pound drive to improve technical training, including new technical versions of A-Levels and 900 hours of teaching each year.

    https://www.facebook.com/notes/theresa-may/my-mission-is-to-increase-the-capacity-diversity-of-our-school-system-so-that-ev

    The link isn't working. Have you posted a link to your unpublished notes, Theresa? ;)
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    Theresa's honeymoon is wearing off as people realise Osborne's golden legacy is at risk.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/839054357073100802
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I realised this was a Smithson thread when I read the totally unnecessary snark at Paul Nuttall.

    If ever someone hunted the snark it’s PN.
    That's true, but kicking a man when he's down is unedifying.
    So we should cease commenting on Jeremy Corbyn too ?
    While either of them remain leader of their parties, they are fair game for any snark coming their way. To suggest otherwise is absurd.
    Indeed. Politics is brutal and often unfair, but these people are seeking power over the people, they need thick skin. Like a boxer it's not an opponent's job to go easy on the other guy, it's for the ref to put an end to it or his side to throw in the towel (e.g. They are removed by their own side) or wait for the final round and the judges to call it (e.g. An election)
    Correct, but the editor's desire to crowbar Nuttall into a piece that has absolutely nothing to do with him says a lot about the editor and detracts from an interesting subject.
    Don't you think you should mention that you hardly impartial either, what with you being a UKIP candidate at the last General Election.
    I wasn't (I refused to do some work for UKIP during the campaign, as it happens), and I criticised it too.
    Please examine the thread. If you look closely, you'll see I wasn't replying to you.
    I was aware of that, thanks.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,468

    "Gorton - albeit on different boundaries - nearly went Tory in 1955 - 1959 - and the November 1967 by election."
    ...
    "Gorton is now majority renting and full of students and with a high Muslim population, in 2015 the Tories came behind the Greens in the seat despite winning nationally,it is one of the most left-wing seats in the country."
    ...
    The Tory candidate in 1967 was Winston Spencer Churchill. Name recognition may have helped a little. The previous Gorton by-election, in 1942, was caused by the elevation to the peerage of Hilary Benn's grandfather.

    This section of Manchester includes some areas which have been quite middle class within living memory. Whalley Range was once pretty well-to-do, as you can imagine if you look on Streetview at some of the streets west of Alexandra Park - nowadays it is gentrifying once again, albeit with Chorlton overspill and therefore not the sort of voter likely to be of any use to the Tories. Rusholme was the ward of the last Tory leader of Manchester City Council (1976, I think); again, if you look around the wider streets of Rusholme east of the curry mile, you can well imagine this. Levenshulme was once fairly well-to-do, as you can imagine in the streets around Slade Lane. And Fallowfield, of course, was once quite affluent before it became a student ghetto - and indeed it is still a reasonably nice area if you can overlook the excessive amounts of takeaways. Nowadays most of the big houses in these areas have been split up and multi-occupied, but you can see how a couple of generations back this was once an area the Tories might have competed in.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053
    edited March 2017

    Theresa's honeymoon is wearing off as people realise Osborne's golden legacy is at risk.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8H39054357073100802

    May and Hammond have a bigger lead over Corbyn and McDonnell than Cameron and Osborne did over Miliband and Balls
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,360
    Pulpstar said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 4m4 minutes ago

    So, HMRC are refusing to say whether the leader of the opposition's salary is regarded as a salary or benefit for tax purposes.

    HMRC are useless with queries. I asked them what their rules were regarding an obscure intrastat/VAT query I had and they replied that I should ask an accountant !
    They are right. cf Romain Poite.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Greens can't do well here then they are probably destined to remain a 1 seat party for some considerable time.

    The Greens - like Labour - would need to make a big issue of the LDs having been the 'Tories little helpers'.
    Agreed - and that's why it was so important to pick Tim Farron not Norman Lamb in hindsight. Farron has many detractors, but he kept enough distance from the controversial coalition decisions to offer a clean break in enough people's eyes, and he's much harder to campaign against as a result.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 4m4 minutes ago

    So, HMRC are refusing to say whether the leader of the opposition's salary is regarded as a salary or benefit for tax purposes.

    HMRC are useless with queries. I asked them what their rules were regarding an obscure intrastat/VAT query I had and they replied that I should ask an accountant !
    They are right. cf Romain Poite.
    They are there to give the rules. I did not ask them how I should proceed.
This discussion has been closed.