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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013

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  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    A turnout of 42% is being reported in the Kingston Beverley by-election which is in Ed Davey's Kingston constituency
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    fitalass said:

    Andrea, it looks like John O's charms worked a treat on the doorsteps of Weybridge. :)

    Weybridge South

    Con 274
    LD 150
    UKIP 140

    John O Hold

    Yeh! JohnO's magic worked but UKIP making its name felt.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB hold Braintree E council by-election with increased majority
    Labour 461
    Conservative 267
    UKIP 194
    Green 67
    turnout 18.96%

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    When last fought in 2011 LAB had majority of just 3 in Braintree East. Tonight that's 194

    Also a small swing from Con to Lab from the 2012 by election in this ward
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Braintree %ages
    Lab 47% +5
    CON 27% -15
    UKIP 20% +20
    GRN 7%
    So big switch to UKIP at CON expense

    The Tories clearly need to send their "Immigrants Go Home" van round to Braintree.
    Bloody immigration again,leave it lad ;-)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    When last fought in 2011 LAB had majority of just 3 in Braintree East.

    Not according to Harry's figures above. This was a three-member ward, remember, so you have to look at the average of the three Con candidates against the average of the three Lab candidates to get the overall party position: 705 against 742.
    It is a 3% swing from Con to Lab from the March 2012 by election . Labour vote share constant 6% movement from Con to UKIP

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lambeth- Tulse Hill
    Labour 1575 LD 277 Green 177 TUSC 76 Con 74 UKIP 64 Ind 20 Soc 11
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    The figures from Felsted of Uttlesford
    Con 557
    LD 253
    UKIP 181
    Lab 38
    CON hold

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    The DWP is taking an alternative approach to reducing incapacity claims:

    DWP Press Office ‏@dwppressoffice
    Cut off 20 lbs & lose over 2 inches off your waist with Garcinia Cambogia in just 2 weeks
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB HOLD Lambeth - Tulse Hill with CON down to 5th place
    Labour 1575
    LD 277
    Green 177
    TUSC 76
    Con 74
    UKIP 64
    Ind 20
    Soc 11

    You do have a feeling mike does enjoy it when tories do badly ;-)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013


    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Braintree %ages
    Lab 47% +5
    CON 27% -15
    UKIP 20% +20
    GRN 7%
    So big switch to UKIP at CON expense

    Dunno where this Smithson fellow gets his figures from. Last time (according to Harry) total votes were 2228 Lab (48%), 2118 Con (46%), 297 Green (6%), however the Greens only put up one candidate in this three-member ward so that is already a bit misleading. Looks like Labour unchanged, Con -19%, UKIP +20%, Green +1.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The Independent has won the Weston Super Mare DC seat as well as the TC seat
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    UKIP dying on the vine.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    The Times reduced to searching for the opposition`s weaknesses instead of holding the government to account-What a pitiful state of affairs for a once great paper!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SMukesh said:

    The Times reduced to searching for the opposition`s weaknesses instead of holding the government to account-What a pitiful state of affairs for a once great paper!

    Maybe it thinks the opposition is unworthy of government.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB HOLD Lambeth - Tulse Hill with CON down to 5th place
    Labour 1575
    LD 277
    Green 177
    TUSC 76
    Con 74
    UKIP 64
    Ind 20
    Soc 11

    You do have a feeling mike does enjoy it when tories do badly ;-)

    Good moaning! I was bruising the threads and I brung you a massage: Meek Smithson is a bug fan of Loobour leader Odd Miliband!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    SMukesh said:

    The Times reduced to searching for the opposition`s weaknesses instead of holding the government to account-What a pitiful state of affairs for a once great paper!

    Welcome back SMukesh.

    But what makes you think that it is the mission of The Times exclusively to hold the government to account?

    The Times is an independent newspaper not Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    AveryLP said:

    SMukesh said:

    The Times reduced to searching for the opposition`s weaknesses instead of holding the government to account-What a pitiful state of affairs for a once great paper!


    The Times is an independent newspaper not Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
    Nor does it hold a candle to Her Majesty's Daily Telegraph ;)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Cllr Nigel Ashton @CllrNigelAshton

    Absolutely brilliant results for Maghull Town Council. Lib Dems gain two seats from Labour and miss third by 9 votes.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited July 2013
    AveryLP said:

    UKIP dying on the vine.

    Sour grapes from a die-hard tory.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    @ALP
    Thanks.
    People are not interested in what the opposition does.They are interested in the actions of the government which manages their trillion pounds.As ever,News UK have their own agenda and one learns to take their `news` with a pinch of salt.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Eoin Clarke is a byword for factual innaccuracy and apology. You would have thought that gaining a PhD in feminism would have taught him better critical analysis.

    And I recall Labour health ministers such as Hewitt and Milburn being very close to private health care companies. Two cheeks of the same arse.

    But the Lansley reforms are going surprisingly well at present, and Hunt seems keen on cracking down on shoddy hospitals. I had low expectations so have been surprised on the upside.


    t
    Mick_Pork said:

    So far as I can tell the Lansley reforms seem to be going along ok

    Which is presumably why Lansley is still doing such a 'fine' job as Health Secretary and why Seth has tipped him as a future PM. ;^)

    More seriously, the Lansley reforms certainly pleased some people a great deal.
    Why is that do you think?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Good result for UKIP in Tulse Hill I see.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SMukesh said:

    @ALP
    Thanks.
    People are not interested in what the opposition does.They are interested in the actions of the government which manages their trillion pounds.As ever,News UK have their own agenda and one learns to take their `news` with a pinch of salt.

    Yeah right,would you be saying the same if it was a tory opposition ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    In Labour's top 50 targets, the party has so far selected 37 candidates: 15 men and 22 women.

    But of those 15 men, only 8 are new candidates and 7 stood last time - (6 former MPs and Alan Pugh in Arfon).

    The 8 newly selected men are as follows: Clive Lewis, Luke Pollard, Nick Bent, Peter Kyle, Jeff Smith, David Ellesmere, James Frith, Christian Matheson.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    UKIP dying on the vine.

    Sour grapes from a die-hard tory.
    I am waiting for the botrytis to set in.

    Eiswein by Christmas.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    SMukesh said:

    @ALP
    Thanks.
    People are not interested in what the opposition does.They are interested in the actions of the government which manages their trillion pounds.As ever,News UK have their own agenda and one learns to take their `news` with a pinch of salt.

    Yeah right,would you be saying the same if it was a tory opposition ?
    Is there a prize for the first correct answer because I would like to enter!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    SMukesh said:

    @ALP
    Thanks.
    People are not interested in what the opposition does.They are interested in the actions of the government which manages their trillion pounds.As ever,News UK have their own agenda and one learns to take their `news` with a pinch of salt.

    Yeah right,would you be saying the same if it was a tory opposition ?
    Is there a prize for the first correct answer because I would like to enter!
    Yes,ukip membership ;-)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013

    Eoin Clarke is a byword for factual innaccuracy and apology. You would have thought that gaining a PhD in feminism would have taught him better critical analysis.

    And I recall Labour health ministers such as Hewitt and Milburn being very close to private health care companies. Two cheeks of the same arse.

    But the Lansley reforms are going surprisingly well at present, and Hunt seems keen on cracking down on shoddy hospitals. I had low expectations so have been surprised on the upside.

    Mick_Pork said:

    So far as I can tell the Lansley reforms seem to be going along ok

    Which is presumably why Lansley is still doing such a 'fine' job as Health Secretary and why Seth has tipped him as a future PM. ;^)

    More seriously, the Lansley reforms certainly pleased some people a great deal.
    Why is that do you think?
    Dr. Sox

    I knew Pork had difficulty sorting out acorns from ground nuts.

    But given his last post, he appears to have forsaken them both for magic mushrooms.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    CON lose North Worle seat to IND in North Somerset by-election.
    IND 531 votes
    Con 471
    Lab 445.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    Hi All. Civilization and all that is noble, true and honourable moves ever further to the sunlit uplands.

    God Save Me.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071


    Yes, ukip membership ;-)

    Second prize: family membership!

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    CON lose North Worle seat to IND in North Somerset by-election.
    IND 531 votes
    Con 471
    Lab 445.

    That is only a partial result , there were 2 Independents
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Well done John

    I heard that the UKIP candidate was a former CON county councillor who lost his seat to UKIP in May. I that right?
    JohnO said:

    Hi All. Civilization and all that is noble, true and honourable moves ever further to the sunlit uplands.

    God Save Me.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JohnO said:

    Hi All. Civilization and all that is noble, true and honourable moves ever further to the sunlit uplands.

    God Save Me.

    The Marquis de Parys is not pleased.

    But the rest of us are singing Congratulations with Cliff.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JohnO said:

    Hi All. Civilization and all that is noble, true and honourable moves ever further to the sunlit uplands.
    God Save Me.

    Excellent news, John!

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @labourpress: Companies have a “duty” to employ British workers rather than migrants, says Tory minister whose HQ employs Aussie lobbyist Lynton Crosby


    To be fair they did try to train up a local boy for seven years but at the end of it he'd shown he couldn't strategise his way out of a paper bag

    Thought this would come back to bite them on the bottom,who let hancock loose ;-)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    It's reported that CON has taken Kingston Beverley off LDs. A big result and victory if confirmed.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Full Weston Super Mare result Ind 531 Con 471 Lab 445 LD 321 UKIP 220 Ind 93
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SMukesh said:

    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!

    and then this -

    It's reported that CON has taken Kingston Beverley off LDs. A big result and victory if confirmed.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 45s
    CON takes Kingston Beverley from LDs - a big result for the blues
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276

    Well done John

    I heard that the UKIP candidate was a former CON county councillor who lost his seat to UKIP in May. I that right?

    JohnO said:

    Hi All. Civilization and all that is noble, true and honourable moves ever further to the sunlit uplands.

    God Save Me.

    I love you all. Blows kisses promiscuously....

    Mike - Not quite. Ian Lake was deselected as a Conservative for Weybridge Division (which he represented since 2001 (I think), defected to UKIP and lost in May (so technically a Con gain). He stood tonight again for the purplies and was a respectable third.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Kingston Beverley is a very bad result for the Lib Dems because it's in the Westminster constituency of Ed Davey.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited July 2013

    SMukesh said:

    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!

    and then this -

    It's reported that CON has taken Kingston Beverley off LDs. A big result and victory if confirmed.

    Full result Con 1033 LD 760 Lab 717 UKIP 223 Green 207

    No surprise considering the reason for the by election .

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Full result Kingston Beverley
    Lab 717
    LD 760
    Tory 1033
    GRN 207
    Ukip 223
    CON gain from LD
    Expand
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    I understand the turnout in Kingston was an astonishing 42%. Is that true? Ours was 17.2%!!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Full result Kingston Beverley
    Lab 717
    LD 760
    Tory 1033
    GRN 207
    Ukip 223
    CON gain from LD


    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Kingston result
    CON 1033
    LAB 797
    Others coming in


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Stunning result for both Con and Lab in Beverley, dreadful for LDs in an area where they've usually done well in recent times.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    SMukesh said:

    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!

    Famous last words.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Andy_JS said:

    Stunning result for both Con and Lab in Beverley, dreadful for LDs in an area where they've usually done well in recent times.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election . I forecast a Con gain in the competition on Vote-2012
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    This Kingston Beverley by-election was held in very diffifcult circumstances for the LDs see
    http://goo.gl/9fAPGA
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JohnO said:

    I understand the turnout in Kingston was an astonishing 42%. Is that true? Ours was 17.2%!!

    Congrats JohnO. The UKIP result was expected in your area, but the Kingston result is a disappointment.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited July 2013
    *"This Kingston Beverley by-election was held in very diffifcult circumstances for the LDs see
    http://goo.gl/9fAPGA"

    Twitter
    David Morton ‏@DavidMorton359 2m
    @MSmithsonPB odd result. Strength of Labour and Green result suggests fatal reluctance to vote tactically.

    *Edit, oops, meant to quote and reply to this post.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Beverley, Kingston-upon-Thames:

    Con 35.14%
    LD 25.85%
    Lab 24.39%
    UKIP 7.59%
    Green 7.04%
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Andy_JS said:


    The 8 newly selected men are as follows: Clive Lewis, Luke Pollard, Nick Bent, Peter Kyle, Jeff Smith, David Ellesmere, James Frith, Christian Matheson.

    Maybe we'll soon be able to add Nick McDonald to the list.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    This Kingston Beverley by-election was held in very diffifcult circumstances for the LDs see
    http://goo.gl/9fAPGA

    Ed Davey won't be best pleased.

    The 42% turnout appears to be a "strength of feeling" result.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Hail, JohnO, knocker-up extraordinaire!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200

    Andy_JS said:

    Stunning result for both Con and Lab in Beverley, dreadful for LDs in an area where they've usually done well in recent times.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election . I forecast a Con gain in the competition on Vote-2012
    Why do voters blame a new candidate for the alleged failings of the previous candidate?

    Doesn't make sense to me.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO - where are you posting from? I have Bognor Regis in the sweepstake!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013

    Eoin Clarke is a byword for factual innaccuracy and apology.

    Precisely which part of the story is incorrect? Or is it merely that your absurd partisan naivety, in pretending that only labour and the tories were taking money from private healthcare companies, looks more than a touch stupid in the face of the facts?

    And I recall Labour health ministers such as Hewitt and Milburn being very close to private health care companies. Two cheeks of the same arse.

    Try harder. If you seriously think they are the only two very close to private healthcare companies then you really do have no idea. Alistair Darling was only the most recent addition. There are plenty more.

    Two cheeks of the same arse.


    The Liberal Democrats as a party are heavily funded by a company called Alpha Healthcare, which have been donating to the party since 2004. The company has donated more than half the money the Lib Dems have taken in major donations since the start of the election campaign. The amount they have been giving has steadily increased over time, but last year it accelerated up to £400,000. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make the connection.

    http://socialinvestigations.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/one-in-ten-liberal-democrat-peers-have.html
    Your arse is a medical curiosity with three checks and the toxic Clegg is in charge of the lib dem cheek.

    Hardly a shock that the blunt truth about the lib dems complicity upsets a Clegg cheerleader.


  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    Why do voters blame a new candidate for the alleged failings of the previous candidate?
    Doesn't make sense to me.

    Agree, it sounds suspiciously like spin to me.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election.

    Entertaining how nobody made such a bold "could not expect" prediction until the result came in.

    Then straight afterwards two LDs spin adjacent posts in full damage limitation mode.

    Edited for blockquote formatting mistake
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Pretty decent result for UKIP in a fairly middle-class segment of south-west London. If they're on about 7% there they should be on about 15% overall.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Stunning result for both Con and Lab in Beverley, dreadful for LDs in an area where they've usually done well in recent times.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election . I forecast a Con gain in the competition on Vote-2012
    Why do voters blame a new candidate for the alleged failings of the previous candidate?

    Doesn't make sense to me.
    And they could easily blame the tory candidate for what the Government does.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    Neil said:

    JohnO - where are you posting from? I have Bognor Regis in the sweepstake!

    A secret location, one so secret that "they" haven't told me yet.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    GeoffM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why do voters blame a new candidate for the alleged failings of the previous candidate?
    Doesn't make sense to me.

    Agree, it sounds suspiciously like spin to me.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election.

    Entertaining how nobody made such a bold "could not expect" prediction until the result came in.

    Then straight afterwards two LDs spin adjacent posts in full damage limitation mode.

    Edited for blockquote formatting mistake
    My forecast of a Con gain was made in the Vote-2012 prediction comp yesterday . There was a similar case in a Conservative seat in Kensington IIRC a couple of years ago which had a similar result a "surprise" LD gain from Con .
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO - I can only think that by-elections like this get one closer to SW1 even if you pass through Bournemouth and Bognor Regis on the way!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 2013
    Nigel Farage launches attack on the government's "nasty" anti-immigrant posters, with LD support:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2377600/Farage-condemns-nasty-Big-Brother-Home-Office-campaign-asks-illegal-immigrants-home.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    GeoffM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why do voters blame a new candidate for the alleged failings of the previous candidate?
    Doesn't make sense to me.

    Agree, it sounds suspiciously like spin to me.

    You could not expect a LD hold given the reason for the by election.

    Entertaining how nobody made such a bold "could not expect" prediction until the result came in.

    Then straight afterwards two LDs spin adjacent posts in full damage limitation mode.

    Edited for blockquote formatting mistake
    To be fair to Mark Senior (which in normal circumstances I would consider to be an aberration) the turnout is a bit of a giveaway.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,276
    Neil said:

    JohnO - I can only think that by-elections like this get one closer to SW1 even if you pass through Bournemouth and Bognor Regis on the way!

    You really think so? If only others (DAVE to choose a random name) possessed your perspicacity.

    JohnnyO, the People's Peer, it's my destiny.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Eoin Clarke is a byword for factual innaccuracy and apology. You would have thought that gaining a PhD in feminism would have taught him better critical analysis.

    And I recall Labour health ministers such as Hewitt and Milburn being very close to private health care companies. Two cheeks of the same arse.

    But the Lansley reforms are going surprisingly well at present, and Hunt seems keen on cracking down on shoddy hospitals. I had low expectations so have been surprised on the upside.

    Mick_Pork said:

    So far as I can tell the Lansley reforms seem to be going along ok

    Which is presumably why Lansley is still doing such a 'fine' job as Health Secretary and why Seth has tipped him as a future PM. ;^)

    More seriously, the Lansley reforms certainly pleased some people a great deal.
    Why is that do you think?
    Dr. Sox

    I knew Pork had difficulty sorting out acorns from ground nuts.

    But given his last post, he appears to have forsaken them both for magic mushrooms.

    You tipped Lansley for PM while he was in the midst of his idiotic reforms debacle, Seth O Logue. No amount of magic mushrooms or acorns will ever stop people from laughing at you for that or all your other absurd predictions and spin.


    It's not that you are such an obvious hack and partisan tory spinner Seth O Logue, after all this is PB and you have plenty of company from the other PB tories. What make you particularly pitiful is that you are so laughably out of touch and incompetent at spinning, and yet so utterly oblivious to that fact.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage launches attack on the government's "nasty" anti-immigrant posters, with LD support:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2377600/Farage-condemns-nasty-Big-Brother-Home-Office-campaign-asks-illegal-immigrants-home.html

    I think it's a silly idea but the words missing is 'illegal immigrants'

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    Unfortunately Dave does not read the overnight threads. He employs an immigrant to do that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Andy_JS said:

    SMukesh said:

    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!

    Famous last words.
    Indeed. It is always best to wait for all the results to come in before making sweeping judgements.

    My favourite post all time on PB came from Sean Fear when trying to explain a Tory poor performance in a by-election

    His "excuse" was that the former councillor had had to resign after being found guilty of pimping his mentally retarded wife

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    @MikeSmithson, your retelling of this story loses the sheer edge that Sean Fear's dead pan delivery gave that particular post.

    Andy_JS said:

    SMukesh said:

    Looks like a bad night for the Cons at the locals!

    Famous last words.
    Indeed. It is always best to wait for all the results to come in before making sweeping judgements.

    My favourite post all time on PB came from Sean Fear when trying to explain a Tory poor performance in a by-election

    His "excuse" was that the former councillor had had to resign after being found guilty of pimping his mentally retarded wife

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @OGH @fitalass

    Was that in one of Sean Fear's much missed Friday round-up threads? I used to enjoy ColinW's inevitable appearances on those as well as ColinW's infamous mum whenever he misbehaved (which was always).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 2013
    New candidates selected so far in seats held by their party:

    1. Bristol South (Lab): Karin Smyth
    2. Cardiff North (Con): Craig Williams
    3. Dorset Mid & Poole North (LD): Vikki Slade
    4. Hampstead & Kilburn (Lab): Tulip Siddiq
    5. Lewisham Deptford (Lab): Vicky Foxcroft
    6. Southampton Itchen (Lab): Rowenna Davis

    Although there are five women in that list, only one of them - Rowenna Davis - would replace a male MP if successful.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    I may know which poster Louise Mensch was on PB.com before the last GE, but to this day I have yet to discover which PB poster used to do a regular comedy turn as ColinW's Mum back then.
    Neil said:

    @OGH @fitalass

    Was that in one of Sean Fear's much missed Friday round-up threads? I used to enjoy ColinW's inevitable appearances on those as well as ColinW's infamous mum whenever he misbehaved (which was always).

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    I'm still trying to find out what Louise Mensch's codename was on PB. And I will discover it eventually, lol.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Andy_JS said:

    Beverley, Kingston-upon-Thames:

    Con 35.14%
    LD 25.85%
    Lab 24.39%
    UKIP 7.59%
    Green 7.04%

    Excellent!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still trying to find out what Louise Mensch's codename was on PB. And I will discover it eventually, lol.

    I once knew it but I've forgotten now!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still trying to find out what Louise Mensch's codename was on PB. And I will discover it eventually, lol.

    I once knew it but I've forgotten now!!
    Drink some carrot juice so you can tell me tomorrow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Details of the minor disagreement between Claire Perry and Guido Fawkes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23437473
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MikeK said:

    JohnO said:

    I understand the turnout in Kingston was an astonishing 42%. Is that true? Ours was 17.2%!!

    Congrats JohnO. The UKIP result was expected in your area, but the Kingston result is a disappointment.
    I'd have thought Kingston would be europhile central.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Andy, you will kick yourself when you realise who it was, so obvious. :)
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still trying to find out what Louise Mensch's codename was on PB. And I will discover it eventually, lol.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 2013
    Maybe posting on PB jinxes candidates at general elections and subsequently, with Marcus Wood, Louise Mensch and NP all currently out of parliament.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    The suburbs of Atlanta are killing the American Dream according to this article:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/are-the-suburbs-where-the-american-dream-goes-to-die/278014/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    It looks like comments are no longer available to view on the PB archive links on the right-hand side.

    The only way to view them is using the WaybackMachine website, although only a limited number of dates are available.

    This, for example, is from 17th February 2007:

    http://web.archive.org/web/20070226163727/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/02/17/miliband-moves-into-the-2nd-favourite-slot/
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    HBTM HBTM HBJL HBTM
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Andy_JS said:

    The suburbs of Atlanta are killing the American Dream according to this article:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/are-the-suburbs-where-the-american-dream-goes-to-die/278014/

    Alternatively, ignoring violent inner-city gang cultures long enough leads to your tax base being driven out unless your tax base is a very high-value sector like finance, media or government where the workers can insulate themselves from the effects.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Andy_JS said:

    Beverley, Kingston-upon-Thames:

    Con 35.14%
    LD 25.85%
    Lab 24.39%
    UKIP 7.59%
    Green 7.04%

    Excellent!
    Yes, Excellent for the Tories who maintained their vote in percentage terms and Labour who doubled theirs. Labour will win a few seats in 2014. We have zero currently. It seems a straight swap to Labour from Lib Dems.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JohnLoony said:

    HBTM HBTM HBJL HBTM

    Happy birthday John!

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB hold Braintree E council by-election with increased majority
    Labour 461
    Conservative 267
    UKIP 194
    Green 67
    turnout 18.96%

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    When last fought in 2011 LAB had majority of just 3 in Braintree East. Tonight that's 194

    Labour sweeping Essex !! Sunil rubs eyes !!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB hold Braintree E council by-election with increased majority
    Labour 461
    Conservative 267
    UKIP 194
    Green 67
    turnout 18.96%

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    When last fought in 2011 LAB had majority of just 3 in Braintree East. Tonight that's 194

    Also a small swing from Con to Lab from the 2012 by election in this ward
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Braintree %ages
    Lab 47% +5
    CON 27% -15
    UKIP 20% +20
    GRN 7%
    So big switch to UKIP at CON expense

    UKIP is a good addition to pluralistic democracy !!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    A turnout of 42% is being reported in the Kingston Beverley by-election which is in Ed Davey's Kingston constituency

    I did my bit "telling" from 0700 to 0900. 42 voted during that period in my polling station.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @JohnO

    Congratulations on your win. Good that a poster has positive news.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 662
    new thread
This discussion has been closed.