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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013
Braintree East on Braintree (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 47, Lab 9, Greens 2, Ind 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34)
Ward Result: (Emboldened denotes elected)
Elwyn Bishop Lab 762 41.9%
David Messer C 759 41.7%
Collette Gibson Lab 756
Eric Lynch Lab 710
Luke Harrington C 691
Rikki Williams C 668
Wendy Partridge Grn 297 16.3%
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Don't Look Back in Ongar!
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield, assuming it is he, for this.
F1: P1 and P2 tomorrow, starting at 9am. Nyooooooooom!
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/allison-to-join-ferrari/
Could be a very significant move.
Whilst the Judas Iscariot approach to F1 continues to rankle, at least this year the BBC has a much better selection of races. Hungary is an ideal race for radio, because it's too hard to pass on.
This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p006vm6j
Off-topic: the excellent Shakespeare in Cambridge festival is on for another month. The festival sees Shakespeare plays performed in the beautiful grounds of Cambridge colleges. Well worth a visit on a dry evening if you enjoy Shakespeare.
http://www.cambridgeshakespeare.com/
Thanks for the interesting paper on the 'worm'. As it is simultaneous with the original political messaging it is going to have a much greater effect than printed polls disconnected in time from specific messaging.
Still it proves the existence of polling influence and I agree with your later comments that the same effect should exist to diminished scale in traditional polling.
Blackpool North Labour shortlist:
Matthew Hood (economy teacher...http://www.matthewhood.org.uk/
Michael McLaughlin (doctor... drmike.org.uk/
Penny Martin (Cleveleys Park Cllr and 2010 candidate)
Adam Mohammed (Criminal and Family Court Lawyer; shortlisted for Warrington South and Nottinghamshire PCC)
Chris Webb (former Labour North West organizer) www.christopherwebb.co.uk/
It will be interesting to watch for the difference in Lib Dem performance between Kingston and Lambeth.
I wonder if there might be an effect with smaller, newer parties such as UKIP. People may be hesitant to consider voting for them until they reach a critical mass where they do well in the polls and become mainstream. Could this effect last even if they later dip back down in the polls?
A more complex (and vastly larger) experiment was done during the 2012 US elections using Facebook. The results could be very useful to political parties and are worth perusing. The Huffington Post have a report at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kare-anderson/insight-from-massive-soci_b_1896914.html and on nakesscientists: http://www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/content/interviews/interview/2244/
tim doesnt care what Labour is doing so long as he gets to attack the Tories!
fitalass said:
Terrible politics from the Labour party, especially at a time when they are receiving a bumper trench of taxpayers money as the only main Opposition.
» show previous quotes
Precisely, terrible politics. When your Party gets about the same funding as the Tories but they pay £500k in tax and you pay nothing - it really doesn't matter if its 'all within the rules'
Google etc were all within the rules too and have an obligation to their shareholders to be fiscally prudent. They also don't go round ticking others off for it.
Man in the Street will just think Hypocrites. And they'd be dead right, it's no good for Labour to try to explain this way with accounting rules - that just looks shifty.
Remember folks, the front page lead in The Times is a non-story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/23352984
Anyway: on a night like this, with JohnO in full magnificent battle, there are bigger fish to fry. Is there a sweepstake on where he ends up?
Google etc were all within the rules too and have an obligation to their shareholders to be fiscally prudent. They also don't go round ticking others off for it."
That is the real question.
Labour’s accounts reveal that could have faced a tax bill of £561,000 but a series of tax deductions meant they paid nothing
The Labour leader has repeatedly rejected the ways that companies use deductions to minimise or eradicate their tax bill
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82635/the_guardian_friday_26th_july_2013.html
Pork
You missed the juicy acorn nestling under the pile of ground nuts.
The survey found that pensioners would only support a pay increase if there were fewer MPs in Parliament.
MPs only have themselves to blame.
Andy Burnham was a Tory???
Worth pointing out that the Braintree East seat had a previous by election in Mar 2012 , result was Lab 554 Con 388 UKIP 131 Green 76 Ind 32 a Labour hold .
Of all the party leaders, Ed Miliband will face the toughest autumn conference of the lot. Labour's wobbly response to the GDP figures was surely a product of its uncertainty over whether to welcome the news or grouse that it should have been better.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/25/economy-osbornes-moment-editorial?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+theguardian/commentisfree/rss+(Comment+is+free)
Ed criticised Google for using perfectly legal means to minimise their tax bill, while Labour use perfectly legal means to minimise their tax bill
Nowhere, other than Farmer tim's febrile imagination, was the method of tax minimisation mentioned in Ed's criticism
But of course, it's a non-story...
Balls says he never predicted a double or triple dip. CCHQ will be going through their video archives for the next attack advert #Newsnight
We're all adults here, there are no votes to be swayed on pbc, baiting our opponents can be fun for a while but dont ever just want to stop the bs and call a spade a spade?
Yes, it was hilariously inept and out of touch spinning from you as usual, but it did at least keep you from making a fool of yourself over Osbrowne.
The primary reason for the shifting polling clearly still eludes you. So try concentrating really hard on this graph instead of your amusingly counterproductive spinning to the effect that the public has 'never had it so good'.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
It's all there if only you had the wit to see it, Seth. So I fear you never will.
Balls says he never predicted a double or triple dip. CCHQ will be going through their video archives for the next attack advert #Newsnight
I love the colours.
Did you do it all yourself?
Well done.
The ways companies use deductions :- not uniquely and explicitly going to extraordinary lengths
This is just painful.
You might be right. All of the times Ed has criticised companies for using various legal means to minimise their tax bill might be a total non-strory because of a single quote that doesn't contradict his relentless posturing on tax avoidance
I expect we will hear no more about it at PMQs or anywhere else. Right?
I've always said your mum is a very wise woman
I hope you're not posting from the dinner table!
Con 274
LD 150
UKIP 140
John O Hold
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
HMRC: "The taxable profits or surpluses of these organisations are subject to Corporation Tax." Lab accounts (p2) say it has a £3m surplus
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
On Labour & tax party accounts say it is a "unincorporated association". HMRC rules on Corp tax liabilities: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/ct/clubs-charities-agents/clubs.htm
The sky has not fallen in at all. The budget is ringfenced so immune from cuts. Of course more would be good but these are tough times.
Labour 461
Conservative 267
UKIP 194
Green 67
turnout 18.96%
It's down to the local party but I cant imagine many circumstances in which a local party would stand down against a Labour candidate. We had an argument in London about standing down in Barking because of the risk of the BNP getting in but thankfully the sensible side won and that ridiculousness (on so many levels) didnt go ahead. Other than that the discussion is usually about standing down for the latest front of the SWP / SP / etc in various seats where they might be strong. But not Labour (or not very often in my experience anyway).
I obviously have no information one way or another and circumstances can be very different in other parts of the country but a statement like that would set off my bs detector enough to want to check it out.
Ps you know my strong view that the Green party wasnt the difference between you and Anna Soubry in 2010 anyway!
Something is very broken.
who was that candidate? the left wing against all cuts Cllr?
It's so obvious to see that he's saying the opposite just to pull your chain.
Labour spox "corporation tax is paid on taxable profits and we made no taxable profits". Tories & Libs did pay tax, tho
Labour spox "corporation tax is paid on taxable profits and we made no taxable profits". Tories & Libs did pay tax, tho
@SamCoatesTimes
HMRC: "The taxable profits or surpluses of these organisations are subject to Corporation Tax." Lab accounts (p2) say it has a £3m surplus
If I were a desperate wine spin merchant, this is the point at which I would say, find us a quote where Ed said that Google's taxable profits were just a surplus, right?
LAB hold Braintree E council by-election with increased majority
Labour 461
Conservative 267
UKIP 194
Green 67
turnout 18.96%
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
When last fought in 2011 LAB had majority of just 3 in Braintree East. Tonight that's 194
More seriously, the Lansley reforms certainly pleased some people a great deal.
Why is that do you think?
andrea, I won't elaborate...was just curious about the specific point.
CON hold Felsted on Uttlesford council by election. No figures yet
Braintree %ages
Lab 47% +5
CON 27% -15
UKIP 20% +20
GRN 7%
So big switch to UKIP at CON expense