There's a credibility problem however for those that have already rejected the first when those that support breaking the EU relationship say it's stupid to break the UK one.
On an emotional level, yes, I tend to agree. On an entirely pragmatic one however, I feel they are very different.
Longevity isn't the key point; entanglement/entwinement is.
The more entwined you are, the harder and more painful it is to uncouple.
Therein lies the rub for the Brexiteers...
Disentangling the Scottish legal system from the UK legal system (for example) will be far easier than disentangling car factories in England from their pan-European supply chains
To claim that Brexit is much easier than Indy is at best, wishful thinking
The idea that you think there are no supply chains between England and Scotland is rather quaint.
SINDY is about one thing only: That many (a minority) Scots hate the English. It's insecurity. Nothing else.
There's a credibility problem however for those that have already rejected the first when those that support breaking the EU relationship say it's stupid to break the UK one.
On an emotional level, yes, I tend to agree. On an entirely pragmatic one however, I feel they are very different.
Longevity isn't the key point; entanglement/entwinement is.
The more entwined you are, the harder and more painful it is to uncouple.
Therein lies the rub for the Brexiteers...
Disentangling the Scottish legal system from the UK legal system (for example) will be far easier than disentangling car factories in England from their pan-European supply chains
To claim that Brexit is much easier than Indy is at best, wishful thinking
The idea that you think there are no supply chains between England and Scotland is rather quaint.
SINDY is about one thing only: That many (a minority) Scots hate the English. It's insecurity. Nothing else.
Brexit is about one thing only: That many (a minority) English hate foreigners.
This is interesting. I had a meeting with senior Tories about what will happen vote wise in the next 2 years.
I paraphrase completely, because I can't talk like a knob, and DYOR...
if 2017 and 2018 local elections were to happen tomorrow, Tories would make gains universally...country, towns, cities.
They believe that Lib Dem surge will be by-elctions only.
UKIP - piss up and brewery comes to mind.
SNP - mildly down.
Labour under Corbym - down everywhere.
Labour under AN Other will come back just as strong as before and we are ready.
I said Corbyn strong in big cities and we won't win them...they just ignored me.
They will tell you that we are working hard and take nothing for granted, which is true. But deep down, they are cock-sure! One of the reasons I suppose Mrs May is being gung-ho about Brexit with Commons and Lords.
As I say, the above could be blarney, bravado, not strategy. Just sayin'
'Senior Tories' believe the SNP vote will go down in May's council elections?
share of vote versus most recent elections. Not versus 4 years ago. Post SINDY. Anyway, take with pinch of salt, forecasts are not actuals. Just passing on.
Hmm, the last poll on Scottish council elections had the SNP marginally up on the Holyrood election. Still, I'm sure Tessie's masterplan to turn the locals into a straw poll on another referendum is bound to bear fruit.
There are facts, opinion polls and betting. The art of betting I assume is to beat the market. DYOR and make up your mind. I'm just an innocent bystander.
Longevity isn't the key point; entanglement/entwinement is.
The more entwined you are, the harder and more painful it is to uncouple.
Therein lies the rub for the Brexiteers...
Disentangling the Scottish legal system from the UK legal system (for example) will be far easier than disentangling car factories in England from their pan-European supply chains
To claim that Brexit is much easier than Indy is at best, wishful thinking
The idea that you think there are no supply chains between England and Scotland is rather quaint.
SINDY is about one thing only: That many (a minority) Scots hate the English. It's insecurity. Nothing else.
Incidentally,it will be a far from painless divorce with the EU. Just a less painful one than Scotland breaking up the United Kingdom.
@Scott_P: I am not entirely convinced of the factual basis for that claim.
The consequences for Scotland will be severe, not least for the economy and public finances. I think people are underestimating the consequences for the rest of the British Isles if Scotland becomes independent. The United Kingdom will cease to exist in any meaningful form. You will have England, which is a place, and two extra bits: Andwales who kind of tags along; a dysfunctional non-country in northern Ireland - a Transdniester in NW Europe.
When the UK leaves the EU, the EU will carry on as before.
This is interesting. I had a meeting with senior Tories about what will happen vote wise in the next 2 years.
I paraphrase completely, because I can't talk like a knob, and DYOR...
if 2017 and 2018 local elections were to happen tomorrow, Tories would make gains universally...country, towns, cities.
They believe that Lib Dem surge will be by-elctions only.
UKIP - piss up and brewery comes to mind.
SNP - mildly down.
Labour under Corbym - down everywhere.
Labour under AN Other will come back just as strong as before and we are ready.
I said Corbyn strong in big cities and we won't win them...they just ignored me.
They will tell you that we are working hard and take nothing for granted, which is true. But deep down, they are cock-sure! One of the reasons I suppose Mrs May is being gung-ho about Brexit with Commons and Lords.
As I say, the above could be blarney, bravado, not strategy. Just sayin'
"Everyone down but us" Sounds like wishful thinking.
Longevity isn't the key point; entanglement/entwinement is.
The more entwined you are, the harder and more painful it is to uncouple.
Therein lies the rub for the Brexiteers...
Disentangling the Scottish legal system from the UK legal system (for example) will be far easier than disentangling car factories in England from their pan-European supply chains
To claim that Brexit is much easier than Indy is at best, wishful thinking
The idea that you think there are no supply chains between England and Scotland is rather quaint.
And that a currency union with fiscal transfers is exactly the same as a currency union without fiscal transfers.....
This is interesting. I had a meeting with senior Tories about what will happen vote wise in the next 2 years.
I paraphrase completely, because I can't talk like a knob, and DYOR...
if 2017 and 2018 local elections were to happen tomorrow, Tories would make gains universally...country, towns, cities.
They believe that Lib Dem surge will be by-elctions only.
UKIP - piss up and brewery comes to mind.
SNP - mildly down.
Labour under Corbym - down everywhere.
Labour under AN Other will come back just as strong as before and we are ready.
I said Corbyn strong in big cities and we won't win them...they just ignored me.
They will tell you that we are working hard and take nothing for granted, which is true. But deep down, they are cock-sure! One of the reasons I suppose Mrs May is being gung-ho about Brexit with Commons and Lords.
As I say, the above could be blarney, bravado, not strategy. Just sayin'
'Senior Tories' believe the SNP vote will go down in May's council elections?
and when I say 'senior tories' just to be clear, not official bods. Just member/politicans long in the tooth, with access to top chaps. This was not a presentation and analysis. Sorry, it may have come across that way.
This is interesting. I had a meeting with senior Tories about what will happen vote wise in the next 2 years.
I paraphrase completely, because I can't talk like a knob, and DYOR...
if 2017 and 2018 local elections were to happen tomorrow, Tories would make gains universally...country, towns, cities.
They believe that Lib Dem surge will be by-elctions only.
UKIP - piss up and brewery comes to mind.
SNP - mildly down.
Labour under Corbym - down everywhere.
Labour under AN Other will come back just as strong as before and we are ready.
I said Corbyn strong in big cities and we won't win them...they just ignored me.
They will tell you that we are working hard and take nothing for granted, which is true. But deep down, they are cock-sure! One of the reasons I suppose Mrs May is being gung-ho about Brexit with Commons and Lords.
As I say, the above could be blarney, bravado, not strategy. Just sayin'
'Senior Tories' believe the SNP vote will go down in May's council elections?
and when I say 'senior tories' just to be clear, not official bods. Just member/politicans long in the tooth, with access to top chaps. This was not a presentation and analysis. Sorry, it may have come across that way.
and of course, elections are not happening tomorrow. So, this is just a scenario, not reality.
Selon nos informations, Nicolas Sarkozy va recevoir cet après-midi deux personnalités très proches de François Fillon : le secrétaire général des Républicains, Bernard Accoyer, et le président du Sénat, Gérard Larcher. L'objectif de ces rencontres est de "sortir de cette impasse", indique au Figaro une source proche des trois hommes
"According to sources, Nicolas Sarkozy will today meet two very close associates of François Fillon: the general secretary of Les Républicains, Bernard Accoyer, and the president of the Senate, Gérard Larcher. The objective of these meetings is to 'find a way out of the impasse', a source close to the three men told Le Figaro"
and, in other news, Les Jeunes Avec Fillon are no longer avec him:
Straw in the wind for a good Sinn Fein and/or SDLP vote ?
Breaking Mid-Ulster turn-out 72.38% huge rise from 58% last time
According to the BBC they’re all up by at least 9 points. SF First Minister?
No. The DUP will win, but I think they might lose a few seats.
I hope and expect the biggest gains to be made by the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and while the DUP will make losses the UUP will gain as much as Sinn Fein
When the UK leaves the EU, the EU will carry on as before.
I am not entirely convinced of the factual basis for that claim either
The UK leaving the EU is a huge blow for them - no doubt. But it doesn't fundamentally change the organisation. Scotland becoming independent means the gig's up for the United Kingdom. A massive difference.
SF 54.4 PBP 22.9 DUP 10.4 SDLP 7.3 UUP 1.8 Green 0.9
Were the figures last time.
At the general election in the 2010 general election and 2011 by election SF got over 70% in West Belfast, so SF up but nothing that unusual in West Belfast
Longevity isn't the key point; entanglement/entwinement is.
The more entwined you are, the harder and more painful it is to uncouple.
Therein lies the rub for the Brexiteers...
Disentangling the Scottish legal system from the UK legal system (for example) will be far easier than disentangling car factories in England from their pan-European supply chains
To claim that Brexit is much easier than Indy is at best, wishful thinking
Perhaps you can tell us how many English or Scottish citizens have a European income tax or social insurance record?
We have collective healthcare, taxation and welfare. That's before interest rates, currency and defence.
We are all individually entangled in the UK. The same really does not apply to us and Europe.
There's a credibility problem however for those that have already rejected the first when those that support breaking the EU relationship say it's stupid to break the UK one.
On an emotional level, yes, I tend to agree. On an entirely pragmatic one however, I feel they are very different.
This is interesting. I had a meeting with senior Tories about what will happen vote wise in the next 2 years.
I paraphrase completely, because I can't talk like a knob, and DYOR...
if 2017 and 2018 local elections were to happen tomorrow, Tories would make gains universally...country, towns, cities.
They believe that Lib Dem surge will be by-elctions only.
UKIP - piss up and brewery comes to mind.
SNP - mildly down.
Labour under Corbym - down everywhere.
Labour under AN Other will come back just as strong as before and we are ready.
I said Corbyn strong in big cities and we won't win them...they just ignored me.
They will tell you that we are working hard and take nothing for granted, which is true. But deep down, they are cock-sure! One of the reasons I suppose Mrs May is being gung-ho about Brexit with Commons and Lords.
As I say, the above could be blarney, bravado, not strategy. Just sayin'
"Everyone down but us" Sounds like wishful thinking.
Perhaps so. Personally I think Libs will be up. And Tories will be mildly up. But Labour will be strong in Cities, and not down as much as towns/countries.
Straw in the wind for a good Sinn Fein and/or SDLP vote ?
Breaking Mid-Ulster turn-out 72.38% huge rise from 58% last time
According to the BBC they’re all up by at least 9 points. SF First Minister?
No. The DUP will win, but I think they might lose a few seats.
I hope and expect the biggest gains to be made by the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and while the DUP will make losses the UUP will gain as much as Sinn Fein
Hard to say. Big rises in turnout in East Antrim, North Down, and South Antrim could be Alliance/UUP but big rises in North Antrim, East Londonderry, and Strangford are likely DUP.
Straw in the wind for a good Sinn Fein and/or SDLP vote ?
Breaking Mid-Ulster turn-out 72.38% huge rise from 58% last time
According to the BBC they’re all up by at least 9 points. SF First Minister?
No. The DUP will win, but I think they might lose a few seats.
I hope and expect the biggest gains to be made by the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and while the DUP will make losses the UUP will gain as much as Sinn Fein
Hard to say. Big rises in turnout in East Antrim, North Down, and South Antrim could be Alliance/UUP but big rises in North Antrim, East Londonderry, and Strangford are likely DUP.
Glad your treatment was rapid and is working Mike. Hunt bleats constantly about wanting to make the NHS the safest Galgate system in the world. Time he streets pouring sufficient resources into it then. He also is constantly advising us that we have a "duty of candour". When half a million notes go missing leading to talk patient harm his b only response? Cover up.
Van the Alliance be part of the Executive? Don't you need to be sectarian to do that?
That's a stupid system if so. I thought it just needed to be cross-party between the top (two?) parties and sectarianism guaranteed that those were from each side of the sectarian divide.
Actually, that's an error. It records the number of ballot papers issued during those hours, rather than the cumulative total. No polling district has recorded a 23% turnout.
My word., commiserations and best wishes to all the PB-ers who are variously poorly, ailing, and under-the-weather. I myself have quite the hangover.
I am merely incredibly soggy. If 'raining' was an Olympic sport, Wales would win gold every time. Wonderful to see the post-Brexit healing process continuing apace on PB. I can almost taste the love.
When the UK leaves the EU, the EU will carry on as before.
I am not entirely convinced of the factual basis for that claim either
The UK leaving the EU is a huge blow for them - no doubt.
Scotland is 8% of the UK's GDP The UK is 17% of the EU's GDP
You're missing my point. The UK won't exist in a meaningful form should Scotland leave. The EU will be a bit smaller but otherwise the same after the UK's departure.
Van the Alliance be part of the Executive? Don't you need to be sectarian to do that?
That's a stupid system if so. I thought it just needed to be cross-party between the top (two?) parties and sectarianism guaranteed that those were from each side of the sectarian divide.
I think there's a "neither" category. On my superficial understanding of northern Irish politics any sensible person would vote Alliance. Naturally they get tiny votes.
Comments
On an entirely pragmatic one however, I feel they are very different. Of course there will be repercussions from both, and yes, I agree they would be far more deeply felt if Scotland voted to leave the UK.
England doesn't have a government.
If you are insecure you don't abandon nanny.
The consequences for Scotland will be severe, not least for the economy and public finances. I think people are underestimating the consequences for the rest of the British Isles if Scotland becomes independent. The United Kingdom will cease to exist in any meaningful form. You will have England, which is a place, and two extra bits: Andwales who kind of tags along; a dysfunctional non-country in northern Ireland - a Transdniester in NW Europe.
When the UK leaves the EU, the EU will carry on as before.
Sounds like wishful thinking.
Last time was 6740.
Selon nos informations, Nicolas Sarkozy va recevoir cet après-midi deux personnalités très proches de François Fillon : le secrétaire général des Républicains, Bernard Accoyer, et le président du Sénat, Gérard Larcher. L'objectif de ces rencontres est de "sortir de cette impasse", indique au Figaro une source proche des trois hommes
"According to sources, Nicolas Sarkozy will today meet two very close associates of François Fillon: the general secretary of Les Républicains, Bernard Accoyer, and the president of the Senate, Gérard Larcher. The objective of these meetings is to 'find a way out of the impasse', a source close to the three men told Le Figaro"
and, in other news, Les Jeunes Avec Fillon are no longer avec him:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/03/35003-20170303LIVWWW00127-francois-fillon-demissions-lr-presidentielle-republicains-elus-thierry-solere-alain-juppe.php
PBP 22.9
DUP 10.4
SDLP 7.3
UUP 1.8
Green 0.9
Were the figures last time.
We have collective healthcare, taxation and welfare. That's before interest rates, currency and defence.
We are all individually entangled in the UK. The same really does not apply to us and Europe.
Straight swing from PBF to SF, Alliance and SDLP also up a little
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/why-horses-are-better-than-cars-guest.html
Not bad.
Is this the highest turnout for any of the devolved parliament/assembly elections?
Edit: checked and only the first NI election in '98 was higher.
And it has not, is not and never will be restricted to the EU.
Our personal tax and national insurance affairs however are very much tied to the UK and nowhere else......
The UK is 17% of the EU's GDP
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/03/patrick-stewart-applying-us-citizenship-fight-donald-trump/
In this order on my timeline.
https://twitter.com/MartinMcAuley/status/837426724736499714
https://twitter.com/Dale_Pankhurst/status/837612346319192066
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/768990/Patrick-Stewart-X-Men-Logan-apologises-Europe-Brexit/amp
"I'm so, so sorry."