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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : Mar

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    slade said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    and the Con candidate is a local rabbi!
    Confirmed Tories win Kersal.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Chris_A said:

    Anyone recommend any good sites for following all the NI action tomorrow. I mean complete with all the transfers rather than the pathetic usual BBC coverage of STV elections?

    Also any chance of SF topping the poll?

    I think EONI has a rolling vote tally so you can start to pick up where the transfers are likely to go. Also believe NI news part of the BBC website does same.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    Scott_P said:
    A truly stunning victory for team Blue. I hope fellow members are busy preparing for government... :smiley:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648

    Is that a 0.3% swing Lab to Con?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
    My boys? Who exactly are my boys?

    Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan. Not your boys now.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    But I mean - it's Salford! Home of the BBC! Cats and dogs, living together....
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608
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    HYUFD said:

    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648

    Labour and UKIP see a bigger swing against them in the same ward and just a week ago Toxic May made the first parliamentary by election for a governing party in 35 years
    Yes. I'm sure I detected a vague, barely traceable undertone of something approaching sarcasm in TSEs analysis.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972

    HYUFD said:

    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648

    Labour and UKIP see a bigger swing against them in the same ward and just a week ago Toxic May made the first parliamentary by election for a governing party in 35 years
    Yes. I'm sure I detected a vague, barely traceable undertone of something approaching sarcasm in TSEs analysis.
    I am shocked!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648

    Labour and UKIP see a bigger swing against them in the same ward and just a week ago Toxic May made the first parliamentary by election for a governing party in 35 years
    Yes. I'm sure I detected a vague, barely traceable undertone of something approaching sarcasm in TSEs analysis.
    Of course but Copeland is a ready riposte for years to come to whatever the weekly Parish council by elections throw up
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
    My boys? Who exactly are my boys?

    Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan. Not your boys now.
    Thats it? Thats your answer? The only bunch straddling Iraq & Syria are IS which everyone on this forum knows I am unrelenting supporter of. Brave brave lads, every one.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749
    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......


    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:

    https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/837374661872660480
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    Salford Quays is in this ward, I think, but most of your Beeb types won't be living in these parts.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In Your Eyes (live) by Peter Gabriel and his crazy backing band beats any genesis for me. My fav Genesis song is Collins era though, 'Turn it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
    Gabriel is a genius, he just did his best work after quitting Genesis.

    Solsbury Hill is like a kind of national folk anthem for an unrealised England, my heart going BOOM BOOM BOOM
    Yes it is a fantastic song. It's all about his decision to leave Genesis actually I think.

    His era Genesis was before my time, and what I've seen if it looks terrible tbh. I never really liked them w Collins either though, too MOR

    You mentioned songs about men losing love... tried 'Sea change' by Beck? That was my heartbreak album!!!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Salford Quays is in this ward, I think, but most of your Beeb types won't be living in these parts.
    Well no...most wouldn't live there for all the tea in china...common northern people...yuck.
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    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    But Labour don't have any issues with antisemitism....they did an independent report and everything.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/837447426499874818

    Is that the long lost IoS on the left?
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 709
    When was the last local by-election gain for Con over Lab?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is that the long lost IoS on the left?

    The one holding the sign upside down. Looks like an awesome ground game to me...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,009
    Scott_P said:
    Dairylea on toast for dinner, no doubt.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Cons gain Gorton?

    Although, probably not if they field a rabbi!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2017

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Well, check out e.g. Lewisham East 1983 (and several similar seats).
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
    My boys? Who exactly are my boys?

    Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan. Not your boys now.
    Thats it? Thats your answer? The only bunch straddling Iraq & Syria are IS which everyone on this forum knows I am unrelenting supporter of. Brave brave lads, every one.
    They had nice " kit ".
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    But Labour don't have any issues with antisemitism....they did an independent report and everything.
    You're right, I do apologise. Clearly the voters are misguided. I hope a better class of voter will emerge to take the place of these naysayers.
  • Options

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Well, check out e.g. Lewisham East 1983 (and several similar seats).
    We're lucky Mrs May is facing Jeremy Corbyn at the general election and not a Titan like Richard Burgon
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    That Theresa is a real vote loser.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080

    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......

    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:
    "To me... [pull smug grimace] To me politics isn't a game."
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Well, check out e.g. Lewisham East 1983 (and several similar seats).
    London exceptionalism will probably allow Heidi to just about hand on there in 2020.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972

    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......

    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:
    "To me... [pull smug grimace] To me politics isn't a game."
    That was a smug grimace? Okay.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
    My boys? Who exactly are my boys?

    Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan. Not your boys now.
    Thats it? Thats your answer? The only bunch straddling Iraq & Syria are IS which everyone on this forum knows I am unrelenting supporter of. Brave brave lads, every one.
    They had nice " kit ".
    What you said there makes perfect sense.

    Somewhere

    At some time

    To someone

    But not now, to anyone, or at any time in the near future.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Well, check out e.g. Lewisham East 1983 (and several similar seats).
    London exceptionalism will probably allow Heidi to just about hand on there in 2020.
    Not to mention her leadership boost :D
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    But Labour don't have any issues with antisemitism....they did an independent report and everything.
    You're right, I do apologise. Clearly the voters are misguided. I hope a better class of voter will emerge to take the place of these naysayers.
    I watched that BBC documentary about the Lords the other day and hoping if I keep repeating his line enough I might get a Peerage off Jezza for my good work.

    Not interested in the politics stuff, the taxpayer subsidized restaurant looked smashing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    NeilVW said:

    When was the last local by-election gain for Con over Lab?

    God only knows, but I doubt it's so uncommon as to be more than interesting. Odd things happen in locals.

    Speaking of, it's been a great time of year for 'angry people in local newspapers' with lots of councillor's up for reflection needing to raise their profiles.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    He could declare between now and Sunday.
    If he does declare and forces Fillon out he probably overtakes Macron as the new favourite for the presidency but Le Pen's odds will also shorten
    Think Macron would probably just about hold on to favouritism initially, but after a couple of polls, Juppe would be the new favourite and Macron's price might even drop below Le Pen's.

    Would be fascinating to see how the new betting market would pan out.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......

    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:
    "To me... [pull smug grimace] To me politics isn't a game."
    That was a smug grimace? Okay.
    'Politics isn't a game' was Item 1 on the Osborne charge sheet.....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......

    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:
    "To me... [pull smug grimace] To me politics isn't a game."
    That was a smug grimace? Okay.
    Amazing how much one can read into a facial expression.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Well, check out e.g. Lewisham East 1983 (and several similar seats).
    London exceptionalism will probably allow Heidi to just about hand on there in 2020.
    Plus no Polly Toynbee standing there this time.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Where is Mark Senior.......

    Meanwhile, Mrs McTurnip's cup of grievance mongering runneth over:
    "To me... [pull smug grimace] To me politics isn't a game."
    That was a smug grimace? Okay.
    Amazing how much one can read into a facial expression.
    May does sometimes pull some interesting facial expressions, might be a tic.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    With all these French shenanigans, is it just because the French people want to be able to reuse their 'vote for the crook not the fascist' placards from when Le len senior made it to the final two?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    It's 41%. A great result. Labour getting exactly what it deserved.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    He could declare between now and Sunday.
    If he does declare and forces Fillon out he probably overtakes Macron as the new favourite for the presidency but Le Pen's odds will also shorten
    Think Macron would probably just about hold on to favouritism initially, but after a couple of polls, Juppe would be the new favourite and Macron's price might even drop below Le Pen's.

    Would be fascinating to see how the new betting market would pan out.
    We may find out in the next few weeks
  • Options

    It's 41%. A great result. Labour getting exactly what it deserved.

    I warned our family's young Middle Class Hobby Socialist that this would come back to bite them on the arse, and that they'd get a kicking in Salford, Bury South, etc. but St. Jezza can do no wrong in his eyes.

    Claimed that Copeland was variously down the the exiting MP and also Tony Blair (obviously).
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In Your Eyes (live) by Peter Gabriel and his crazy backing band beats any genesis for me. My fav Genesis song is Collins era though, 'Turn it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
    Gabriel is a genius, he just did his best work after quitting Genesis.

    Solsbury Hill is like a kind of national folk anthem for an unrealised England, my heart going BOOM BOOM BOOM

    One of the great songs. I've come to take you home.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Off topic, I hope people have been checking out the comments on the 2018 boundary review site. Not as many as I'd have thought, but some cracking ones about gerrymandering, one party states and need for voting reform, rather than commenting on any precise issues, as well as myriad bitching about proposed names rather than issues with the boundaries themselves.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
    Not really. If the preferences of other candidates had been transferred in 2015 to leave just two candidates , Corbyn's margin of victory would have been a fair bit bigger than in 2016. He would have defeated Burnham by circa 65% to 35% and Cooper by at least 67% to 33%. Because he received over 50% of first preference votes there was no need to do that , but in order to make a like for like comparison, we would need to know what the final figures would have been from the transfer process. I believe my estimates to be sound.
    Cooper's votes would almost all have gone to Burnham as would Kendall's, the fact remains the Labour membership has twice comfortably elected Corbyn and there is no polling evidence to suggest that has changed since
    Kendall's would have split between Cooper and Burnham - with some not being transferred at all. At the time, I would think 20 - 25% of Cooper's votes would have gone to Corbyn. Had Burnham been eliminated I would have expected over 30% of his vote to have switched to Corbyn. I am not a party member but did pay £3 to participate in the 2015 contest. I went Cooper Ist - Corbyn 2nd - Burnham 3rd.
    Kendall's would have gone 90%+ to Burnham or Cooper and Burnham came second to Corbyn. The fact remains Corbyn has twice got over 60% of Labour members to back him, the leadership is his for as long as he wants it unless there is a dramatic change in the views of Labour members
    But we have had no polling evidences as to whether such views have changed or not. Anecdotally, however, there appears to have been quite a bit of slippage in Corbyn's standing with the membership. I suspect he would now struggle to win re-election - though that is far from certain.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In Your Eyes (live) by Peter Gabriel and his crazy backing band beats any genesis for me. My fav Genesis song is Collins era though, 'Turn it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
    Gabriel is a genius, he just did his best work after quitting Genesis.

    Solsbury Hill is like a kind of national folk anthem for an unrealised England, my heart going BOOM BOOM BOOM
    Yes it is a fantastic song. It's all about his decision to leave Genesis actually I think.

    His era Genesis was before my time, and what I've seen if it looks terrible tbh. I never really liked them w Collins either though, too MOR

    You mentioned songs about men losing love... tried 'Sea change' by Beck? That was my heartbreak album!!!
    Give Ripples a go. Really listen. Incredibly intricate and beautiful. Also Follow You Follow Me, of course.

    As for Solsbury Hill, yes I heard that. I also remember when I first read that Come Up And See Me by Cockney Rebel was, likewise, about a band falling out, and I felt a bit dismayed, because it is such a beautiful, and amazing pop song, it seemed to deserve a bigger theme: love!

    But then the same goes for Shine On You Crazy Diamond, and the majority of Dark Side of the Moon (surely the single greatest rock album ever made) - mostly it's about the guilt the band felt about leaving mad old Syd behind.

    It doesn't matter. Great music is great music. The nervous, immortal intro to Mozart's 40th symphony was probably inspired by him wanting some more coffee.
    I was completely obsessed w Syd Barrett when I was a teenager, even had his two solo albums! One of the saddest stories in rock history, along with Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac.

    If you want sane to worried to crazy summed up in three songs, listen to Fleetwood Mac "Oh Well" then "Man of the World" and then "green Manalishi"
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749

    It's 41%. A great result. Labour getting exactly what it deserved.

    I wonder who's going to ask Ken Livingstone about this.....
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    In other news, Gina Miller is going to take the government to court again if they Brexit without parliamentary approval (she says a vote to trigger Article 50 is not the same as authorisation to leave, legally speaking).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
    Not really. If the preferences of other candidates had been transferred in 2015 to leave just two candidates , Corbyn's margin of victory would have been a fair bit bigger than in 2016. He would have defeated Burnham by circa 65% to 35% and Cooper by at least 67% to 33%. Because he received over 50% of first preference votes there was no need to do that , but in order to make a like for like comparison, we would need to know what the final figures would have been from the transfer process. I believe my estimates to be sound.
    Cooper's votes would almost all have gone to Burnham as would Kendall's, the fact remains the Labour membership has twice comfortably elected Corbyn and there is no polling evidence to suggest that has changed since
    Kendall's would have split between Cooper and Burnham - with some not being transferred at all. At the time, I would think 20 - 25% of Cooper's votes would have gone to Corbyn. Had Burnham been eliminated I would3rd.
    Kendall's would have gone 90%+ to Burnham or Cooper and Burnham came second to Corbyn. The fact remains Corbyn has twice got over 60% of Labour members to back him, the leadership is his for as long as he wants it unless there is a dramatic change in the views of Labour members
    But we have had no polling evidences as to whether such views have changed or not. Anecdotally, however, there appears to have been quite a bit of slippage in Corbyn's standing with the membership. I suspect he would now struggle to win re-election - though that is far from certain.
    Despite Brexit and his abysmal poll ratings he was still re elected by a landslide a few months ago, I doubt much has changed since
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Danny565 said:

    In other news, Gina Miller is going to take the government to court again if they Brexit without parliamentary approval (she says a vote to trigger Article 50 is not the same as authorisation to leave, legally speaking).

    Maybe she should let someone else front the court cases for a bit. I'm glad she brought the first case, and won't dismiss out of hand the possibility there are other legal questions to be clarified, but it's a bit wearing.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Y0kel said:

    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    What on earth do the Russians have on him? It's clearly not nothing. Something big for him to be so defensive.
    Or just plain lacks smarts.

    My stance hasn't changed from late 2016. They have a considerable financial rudder control and information about his leisure activities.

    The most obvious route though is to follow the money on him and some of closest circle.
    He's completely bonkers but he is smart.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
    Cooper's votes would almost all have gone to Burnham as would Kendall's, the fact remains the Labour membership has twice comfortably elected Corbyn and there is no polling evidence to suggest that has changed since
    Kendall's would have split between Cooper and Burnham - with some not being transferred at all. At the time, I would think 20 - 25% of Cooper's votes would have gone to Corbyn. Had Burnham been eliminated I would3rd.
    Kendall's would have gone 90%+ to Burnham or Cooper and Burnham came second to Corbyn. The fact remains Corbyn has twice got over 60% of Labour members to back him, the leadership is his for as long as he wants it unless there is a dramatic change in the views of Labour members

    But we have had no polling evidences as to whether such views have changed or not. Anecdotally, however, there appears to have been quite a bit of slippage in Corbyn's standing with the membership. I suspect he would now struggle to win re-election - though that is far from certain.
    Despite Brexit and his abysmal poll ratings he was still re elected by a landslide a few months ago, I doubt much has changed since
    Anecdotally it feels like some of his support is slipping at least, but not to the point he would struggle to win another contest - that many of his critics are not calling for another contest, wary following last year's coup, indicates they are not at all confident they could best him yet.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    Danny565 said:

    In other news, Gina Miller is going to take the government to court again if they Brexit without parliamentary approval (she says a vote to trigger Article 50 is not the same as authorisation to leave, legally speaking).

    What is the Court going to do, force the EU to take us back?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
    Cooper's votes would almost all have gone to Burnham as would Kendall's, the fact remains the Labour membership has twice comfortably elected Corbyn and there is no polling evidence to suggest that has changed since
    Kendall's would have split between Cooper and Burnham - with some not being transferred at all. At the time, I would think 20 - 25% of Cooper's votes would have gone to Corbyn. Had Burnham been eliminated I would3rd.
    Kendall's would have gone 90%+ to Burnham or Cooper and Burnham came second to Corbyn. The fact remains Corbyn has twice got over 60% of Labour members to back him, the leadership is his for as long as he wants it unless there is a dramatic change in the views of Labour members

    But we have had no polling evidences as to whether such views have changed or not. Anecdotally, however, there appears to have been quite a bit of slippage in Corbyn's standing with the membership. I suspect he would now struggle to win re-election - though that is far from certain.
    Despite Brexit and his abysmal poll ratings he was still re elected by a landslide a few months ago, I doubt much has changed since
    Anecdotally it feels like some of his support is slipping at least, but not to the point he would struggle to win another contest - that many of his critics are not calling for another contest, wary following last year's coup, indicates they are not at all confident they could best him yet.
    Exactly
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    It appears that both the DUP and Sinn Fein have increased their vote share in NI. The voters there are challenging Hartlepool as the most stupid people in the UK.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    But Labour don't have any issues with antisemitism....they did an independent report and everything.
    No, they apparently have no problem with it.

    You can of course read that 2 ways
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I didn't realise that I had accidentally logged onto Questionable-Taste-In-Music.com
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    Gosh, why would that be

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In Your Eyes (live) by Peter Gabriel and his crazy backing band beats any genesis for me. My fav Genesis song is Collins era though, 'Turn it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
    Gabriel is a genius, he just did his best work after quitting Genesis.

    Solsbury Hill is like a kind of national folk anthem for an unrealised England, my heart going BOOM BOOM BOOM
    Yes it isd 'Sea change' by Beck? That was my heartbreak album!!!
    Give Ripples a go. Really listen. Incredibly intricate and beautiful. Also Follow You Follow Me, of
    It doesn't matter. Great music is great music. The nervous, immortal intro to Mozart's 40th symphony was probably inspired by him wanting some more coffee.
    I was completely obsessed w Syd Barrett when I was a teenager, even had his two solo albums! One of the saddest stories in rock history, along with Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac.

    If you want sane to worried to crazy summed up in three songs, listen to Fleetwood Mac "Oh Well" then "Man of the World" and then "green Manalishi"
    Hah. I was likewise obsessed with Syd, as an awkward, rebellious teenager in Herefordshire, I think it's a good sign. And I owned both those albums, who can forget the photos of the striped wooden floor, with handsome, violet-eyed Syd, and the naked woman besides him

    Strange thing is, in the late 80s ago I got to know (vaguely) Duggie Fields, the artist. Turned out he was the guy who shared that famous Earl's Court flat, with Syd, with the striped floor, as Syd went mad. It is possible he still lives there.

    Small world.
    The Madcap Laughs! They are actually more worthwhile as a study into someone losing their mind than as entertainment. I read every book and listened to every outtake I could find about him, fascinating.

    But, I hesitate to say it, but the Peter Green story is even more fascinating. Watch bbcs 'man of the world' documentary on YouTube. Brutal what happened to him

    https://youtu.be/VC0DayWUY64
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Invisible Touch?

    Vomit.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    Disaster for the Tories.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited March 2017

    Salford Quays is in this ward, I think, but most of your Beeb types won't be living in these parts.
    No, this is the leafy(ish) northern bit of Salford. Tory-Labour marginal ward - a rare bird in old Salford.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    As a Labour friend of Israel I an in despair.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    In other news, Gina Miller is going to take the government to court again if they Brexit without parliamentary approval (she says a vote to trigger Article 50 is not the same as authorisation to leave, legally speaking).

    Maybe she should let someone else front the court cases for a bit. I'm glad she brought the first case, and won't dismiss out of hand the possibility there are other legal questions to be clarified, but it's a bit wearing.
    Does it matter who brings it?

    To be honest, the government should just concede the amendment. Whether it's in the Bill or not, there's going to be a meaningful vote one way or another because it's too big an issue with too many people keen for there to be a vote, for it not to happen.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Toxic Corbyn sees a 10% swing to the government...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837445467340484608

    Tory vote down again :lol:
    I make it a 5.2% swing from Con to UKIP.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2017
    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Just watched Trumped: Inside the Greatest Political Upset of All Time on Showtime. A fascinating watch, no least because of how completely in a bubble the 'objective' reporters were. I lived it here in the States, but not inside that bubble. Wow.

    Compelling viewing

    http://www.sho.com/titles/3445564/trumped-inside-the-greatest-political-upset-of-all-time
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    slade said:

    It appears that both the DUP and Sinn Fein have increased their vote share in NI. The voters there are challenging Hartlepool as the most stupid people in the UK.

    Exit polls?
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2017
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    General election?
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    the question on the ballot was leave or remain . the rest was entrusted to the elected government to figure out its what we pay them for . we heard all the arguments ad nauseum before the vote and chose to leave
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a maf PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In You it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
    Gabriel BOOM
    Yes it isd 'Sea change' by Beck? That was my heartbreak album!!!
    Give Ripting some more coffee.
    I was complnd then "green Manalishi"
    Hah. I w
    Small world.


    https://youtu.be/VC0DayWUY64
    I know less of the Peter Green story, will investigate. I think what made Syd's story so compelling is the way he just disappeared (pre-internet) generating all kinds of rumours.

    I do think he was a kind of modest genius (who knows where he would have gone, if not devoured by madness), but Dark Side of the Moon ironically dwarfs anything he did. That album consistently astonishes me. Some of the best music made by human beings since the second world war, I think. The rest of Pink Floyd's output is pretty minor in comparison, some nice songs, Wish You Were Here etc, Summer 68, but something weird and amazing gelled when they were making that album, which has never and can never be repeated.

    I fear 1965-1985 was a peak period in popular music, of experimentation and success and general fabulousness, which can never be repeated: it will never be that good again. Rather like experimental painting in France from 1880-1925.

    There's probably a similar period in Chinese ceramics, when the artform was discovered, mastered, exploited, thoroughly explored, and can never be as good again. In fact the same pattern can probably be found in all art forms.
    Watch the doc I link to about Peter Green, I guarantee you will be enthralled. He lived, heavily scarred, to tell the tale. The before and after is unreal.

    He wanted to give all of fleetwood Macs money (all earned by him) to the starving in Africa personally do no one could interfere! It could be said on judgement day he was saneand the others were mad.

    As I've got older I've embraced latter day floyd and would say The Wall is my fav album by them now. Dark Side obv genius too
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017
    This just showed up in my social media feed and made me chuckle...

    image

    It shows what a mess Labour are in when the shadow chancellor gave a big speech today....and....I bet 99% of the population have no idea what he said.
  • Options
    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    Please tell me, what flavour of remain did you vote for? European Army? Mandatory Schengen? Mandatory refugee delivery? Greek bail-out #3?

    Did anyone else, apart from you vote for it?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080

    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    Please tell me, what flavour of remain did you vote for? European Army? Mandatory Schengen? Mandatory refugee delivery? Greek bail-out #3?

    Did anyone else, apart from you vote for it?
    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/02/02-letter-tusk-proposal-new-settlement-uk/
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    Please tell me, what flavour of remain did you vote for? European Army? Mandatory Schengen? Mandatory refugee delivery? Greek bail-out #3?

    Did anyone else, apart from you vote for it?
    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/02/02-letter-tusk-proposal-new-settlement-uk/
    Ah, the "let's try the same fast-one the Danes fell for" version

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/the_79_times_that_the_ecj_has_ignored_the_danish_renegotiation.html
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    So Mike Pence used a private email whilst governor which got hacked... You couldn't make this stuff up.

    Here's a tip for journalists... Anything Trump accuses his opponents of... Start investigating whether he or his team already did it.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    This just showed up in my social media feed and made me chuckle...

    image

    It shows what a mess Labour are in when the shadow chancellor gave a big speech today....and....I bet 99% of the population have no idea what he said.

    This just showed up in my social media feed and made me chuckle...

    image

    It shows what a mess Labour are in when the shadow chancellor gave a big speech today....and....I bet 99% of the population have no idea what he said.

    About 99% have no idea who the shadow chancellor Is, never mind what he said.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    rkrkrk said:

    So Mike Pence used a private email whilst governor which got hacked... You couldn't make this stuff up.

    Here's a tip for journalists... Anything Trump accuses his opponents of... Start investigating whether he or his team already did it.

    Although to be fair its pretty unlikely that a governor had Top Secret (Compartmentalized) information on his email, HRC definitely did.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:

    So Mike Pence used a private email whilst governor which got hacked... You couldn't make this stuff up.

    Here's a tip for journalists... Anything Trump accuses his opponents of... Start investigating whether he or his team already did it.

    Although to be fair its pretty unlikely that a governor had Top Secret (Compartmentalized) information on his email, HRC definitely did.
    Doubtless we will soon find out - since the republicans will surely be keen to launch investigations...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749
    Britain’s EU partners are quietly preparing for the possibility that the U.K. government may walk out of negotiations on divorce from the European Union within the next year, once Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier presents a politically toxic exit bill between €50 and €60 billion and refuses to discuss any future trade relationship until London commits to paying its dues.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-faces-groucho-marx-moment/

    Good.

    Of course, we shouldn't walk out - and yes there will be a bill to be paid - but if the opposite side doesn't think you might walk out (David Cameron, I'm looking at you), then you start on the back foot.....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Kyrgios defeats Djokovic 7:6 7:5 in the QF of the ATP 500 in Acapulco.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,593
    edited March 2017
    Kersal

    I thought that one issue this Kersal Salford election was about ... er .... Gary Neville's Huge Erections ie his redevelopment of the Salford City football ground using foreign money, passed by the Labour Council last month

    Hundreds of Planning objections but was passed by the Council:
    http://www.salfordstar.com/article.asp?id=3568

    (Note that is not a full blown local newspaper but the bald fact cannot really be misreported)

    and his skyscrapers:
    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/gary-neville-st-michaels-development-11672817

    The vote shift was from Labour to the Independent, one Jonny Wineberg:

    "Jonny, along with most local residents, is a fan of Salford City Football Club. However, despite over 600 local residents and numerous local organisations objecting to Salford City FC’s plans to expand the current Moor Lane ground, the Council’s Planning Committee approved them within 2 months.

    They did not see fit to organise any consultation with local residents, involve us in discussions on solving the multitude of problems raised nor respond properly to those who had taken the time to write in.

    The disrespect shown to residents of Kersal and the unwillingness to involve us in plans for our own community are why Kersal Moor Residents’ Association selected Jonny Wineberg to stand in this by-election.

    But this is by no means a single issue campaign. Improving the health of people; ensuring the best educational and employment opportunities; keeping our environment clean and accessible; ensuring care for older and disabled people; developing children and youth provision and many more issues need to be addressed. Jonny is committed to working with local people to address their needs and improve Kersal for all."
    https://jonnyforkersal.wordpress.com/2017/01/24/wheres-our-consltation/amp/

    I think Guido is overhyping Labour vs the Jews on this occasion.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Britain’s EU partners are quietly preparing for the possibility that the U.K. government may walk out of negotiations on divorce from the European Union within the next year, once Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier presents a politically toxic exit bill between €50 and €60 billion and refuses to discuss any future trade relationship until London commits to paying its dues.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-faces-groucho-marx-moment/

    Good.

    Of course, we shouldn't walk out - and yes there will be a bill to be paid - but if the opposite side doesn't think you might walk out (David Cameron, I'm looking at you), then you start on the back foot.....

    I think this demonstrates that there is a risk that the UK will simply crash out of the EU, and then the EU will be blamed for being unreasonable. Given that we know that the government (at least appear) to be in denial about the complexity of what they are heading in to, this is in my view a highly probable outcome, because it is simply the easiest solution politically.

    Of course in any negotiation you have to be prepared to walk away. The nature of the Article 50 process is weighed against the departing party.

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    What a moron James Reuben is. His problem with Trump? Not enough virtue signalling.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749
    MattW said:

    Kersal

    I think Guido is overhyping Labour vs the Jews on this occasion.

    That may have been a factor - this may have been another:

    https://scontent-sit4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17103656_10154993770893788_313338976220713210_n.jpg?oh=4cec1296804918018d3c482b77e329e6&oe=593AF034
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dixiedean said:

    As a Labour friend of Israel I an in despair.

    Goodness! Are you the last one?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,749
    nielh said:

    Britain’s EU partners are quietly preparing for the possibility that the U.K. government may walk out of negotiations on divorce from the European Union within the next year, once Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier presents a politically toxic exit bill between €50 and €60 billion and refuses to discuss any future trade relationship until London commits to paying its dues.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-faces-groucho-marx-moment/

    Good.

    Of course, we shouldn't walk out - and yes there will be a bill to be paid - but if the opposite side doesn't think you might walk out (David Cameron, I'm looking at you), then you start on the back foot.....

    Of course in any negotiation you have to be prepared to walk away. The nature of the Article 50 process is weighed against the departing party.
    Unfortunately, Cameron never looked like he'd walk away - which is why we got the risible 'deal' which he sold anyway. And much as I've no doubt a reasonable deal will be the best for both parties - who invented 'muddling through'?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    HYUFD said:

    Probably already mentioned but two new Dutch polls:

    Ipsos put VVD/Rutte on 28 over PVV/WIlders on 24 whereas I&O have it 25 over 22(with the GL - the Green Left - on 20).

    Betfair (2.25) is a HOLD but Ladbrokes/Betway (2.5) is therefore a small buy.

    I got a small amount on at 3.45 which I am happy about :)

    Peil and TNS NIPO still have the PVV ahead and De Stemming has it tied
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    Although even TBS and Piel have shown the PVV lead collapsing.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    Christchurch used to be LibDem, so why no candidate?
    Independent?
    UKIP well down.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago

    Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch) result:
    CON: 46.8% (-9.0)
    IND: 34.7% (+34.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-9.6)
    UKIP: 6.3% (-21.4)
    GRN: 5.4% (+5.4)

    Conservative HOLD Mudeford & Friars (Christchurch).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    NOOO, FRED
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,008

    Christchurch used to be LibDem, so why no candidate?
    Independent?
    UKIP well down.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago

    Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch) result:
    CON: 46.8% (-9.0)
    IND: 34.7% (+34.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-9.6)
    UKIP: 6.3% (-21.4)
    GRN: 5.4% (+5.4)

    Conservative HOLD Mudeford & Friars (Christchurch).

    Backing the Indie??????
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    In other news, Gina Miller is going to take the government to court again if they Brexit without parliamentary approval (she says a vote to trigger Article 50 is not the same as authorisation to leave, legally speaking).

    Maybe she should let someone else front the court cases for a bit. I'm glad she brought the first case, and won't dismiss out of hand the possibility there are other legal questions to be clarified, but it's a bit wearing.
    Does it matter who brings it?

    To be honest, the government should just concede the amendment. Whether it's in the Bill or not, there's going to be a meaningful vote one way or another because it's too big an issue with too many people keen for there to be a vote, for it not to happen.
    I was thing someone else should bring it both fir her sake and to avoid at least the appearance of it being one obsessive.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    kjohnw said:

    Pong said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    even if 20 tory mps rebel against the government for a meaningful vote on brexit the government should still have the numbers to block the amendment with labour leavers and DUP
    The basic problem is that neither PMTM, nor her flavour of brexit - whatever that turns out to be - has a mandate.

    She needs one. Fast.
    the question on the ballot was leave or remain . the rest was entrusted to the elected government to figure out its what we pay them for . we heard all the arguments ad nauseum before the vote and chose to leave
    Indeed. It didn't give them any addition level authority, but if they can continue to command a majority the government was given the authority to choose options. That was always one of the risks.
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