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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : Mar

24

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  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "European Parliament President Antonio Tajani has called for the EU to set up refugee reception centers in Libya and to implement a “Marshall Plan” for Africa in order to curb migration to the bloc, Die Zeit reported Monday. We either act now or 20 million Africans will come to Europe in the coming years,” Tajani said."

    http://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-tajani-calls-for-eu-to-open-refugee-reception-centers-in-libya/

    Surprisingly smart thinking.
    Talk's cheap.

    How much do the 27 actually pull out of their pockets?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Mudeford and Friars Cliffe, now that's a seat you expect to be Tory before you even look at the details.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017
    Am I missing something, but Why the f##k is the guitar player with a super niche band on QT this evening?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,156
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Could be SDLP take a seat from SF
    Is this different people voting or the same people voting again and again.? Sean Fein depend on the latter.
    Now I know what Sean_F stands for!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the hell Snapchat is worth $24 Bn

    "Plans revealed that the company had revenue of $404m last year, but made a loss of $515m."

    They must expect some pretty startling profits in years to come, but even if that is so compared to some companies with proven profitability that is one hell of an amount.
    I don't see how they possibly can. The only compelling argument I've ever heard for why anyone is on Snapchat is that their parents aren't, and even that only covers a minuscule demographic.
    Interesting, because the only person I know for certain uses it (presumably plenty I know do but I am not aware of it) is a 50+ mother of 4. I thought perhaps it was worth so much because everyone (but me) uses it, not just young or old people.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it more believeable tho. He's some mad frothy lefty Remainer, yet even he is disgusted by the dishonesty surrounding this case.

    It's one of the most blatant examples of Fake News I've seen. Just complete obvious disprovable bullshit from the get-go, yet still being reheated and served up in lefty media.

    I'm a journalist. I don't understand journalists who can write this shit without feeling a paralysing sense of self-disgust (and this applies to right and left). You're lying, you know you're lying, and yet you carry on lying. How do they sleep?

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    I think the Strait Times beat the BBC on this one (a major outlet in Singapore, granted), but your point still stands.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "European Parliament President Antonio Tajani has called for the EU to set up refugee reception centers in Libya and to implement a “Marshall Plan” for Africa in order to curb migration to the bloc, Die Zeit reported Monday. We either act now or 20 million Africans will come to Europe in the coming years,” Tajani said."

    http://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-tajani-calls-for-eu-to-open-refugee-reception-centers-in-libya/

    Surprisingly smart thinking.
    Talk's cheap.

    How much do the 27 actually pull out of their pockets?
    To be fair, it's a proposal, not the actuality.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    I am actually surprised Redcar has so many LD councillors. The LDs won the parliamentary seat in 2010 on a massive swing off the back of discontent over the closure of the steelworks (which were reopened, and I believed now closed again) but Labour got it back in 2015 to revert to the norm, but I had just assumed the LD win came from nowhere and there'd be no local support at all.

    The local Labour party is a mess: http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/recap-10-labour-councillors-resign-8576935
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    William_H said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
    Not really. If the preferences of other candidates had been transferred in 2015 to leave just two candidates , Corbyn's margin of victory would have been a fair bit bigger than in 2016. He would have defeated Burnham by circa 65% to 35% and Cooper by at least 67% to 33%. Because he received over 50% of first preference votes there was no need to do that , but in order to make a like for like comparison, we would need to know what the final figures would have been from the transfer process. I believe my estimates to be sound.
    Cooper's votes would almost all have gone to Burnham as would Kendall's, the fact remains the Labour membership has twice comfortably elected Corbyn and there is no polling evidence to suggest that has changed since
    Kendall's would have split between Cooper and Burnham - with some not being transferred at all. At the time, I would think 20 - 25% of Cooper's votes would have gone to Corbyn. Had Burnham been eliminated I would have expected over 30% of his vote to have switched to Corbyn. I am not a party member but did pay £3 to participate in the 2015 contest. I went Cooper Ist - Corbyn 2nd - Burnham 3rd.
    Kendall's would have gone 90%+ to Burnham or Cooper and Burnham came second to Corbyn. The fact remains Corbyn has twice got over 60% of Labour members to back him, the leadership is his for as long as he wants it unless there is a dramatic change in the views of Labour members
    If the NEC was smart enough to change the election rules back to the system Corbyn was originally elected on, then there might be a chance to beat Corbyn by recruiting new voters.
    The NEC is moving into Corbyn's pocket the longer he stays in charge
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Could be SDLP take a seat from SF
    Is this different people voting or the same people voting again and again.? Sean Fein depend on the latter.
    True
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kle4 said:

    The benefit of such over sensitivity is you are bound to find someone who considers themselves extremely politically correct and yet will use one of these apparently anathema phrases.
    My favourite of recent months was discovering that, in the US, "posse" is considered racist.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it more believeable tho. He's some mad frothy lefty Remainer, yet even he is disgusted by the dishonesty surrounding this case.

    It's one of the most blatant examples of Fake News I've seen. Just complete obvious disprovable bullshit from the get-go, yet still being reheated and served up in lefty media.

    I'm a journalist. I don't understand journalists who can write this shit without feeling a paralysing sense of self-disgust (and this applies to right and left). You're lying, you know you're lying, and yet you carry on lying. How do they sleep?

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    +1
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    I've seen no evidence of Macron's charisma. He's sinister and weird.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Could be SDLP take a seat from SF
    Is this different people voting or the same people voting again and again.? Sean Fein depend on the latter.
    Now I know what Sean_F stands for!
    Obvious in retrospect really.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Also, Hutton is in a posher bit of the constituency, not Redcar town itself. Newcomen is a surprising one to be LD from my perspective
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the hell Snapchat is worth $24 Bn

    "Plans revealed that the company had revenue of $404m last year, but made a loss of $515m."

    Ghastly Linkedin went for $26 Bn. But I agree snapchat's usp simply doesn't work, as a reasonably savvy 10 year old could tell you, and even if it did it's unmonetisable
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    'Centrist' politicians are usually described as having 'charisma' by 'centrist' media outlets who are looking at their own reflections.

    They are usually bland, unprincipled people who look like they drive Audis very badly whilst marketing hair dye.
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
  • Options
    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it more believeable tho. He's some mad frothy lefty Remainer, yet even he is disgusted by the dishonesty surrounding this case.

    It's one of the most blatant examples of Fake News I've seen. Just complete obvious disprovable bullshit from the get-go, yet still being reheated and served up in lefty media.

    I'm a journalist. I don't understand journalists who can write this shit without feeling a paralysing sense of self-disgust (and this applies to right and left). You're lying, you know you're lying, and yet you carry on lying. How do they sleep?

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    The crazy thing is that I love reading The Guardian. I just do. I just find it weird that it gives free rein for people like Toynbee and Valenti. It can be the best newspaper in the world, and also the most embarrassing. Perhaps that is why i like it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    chestnut said:

    'Centrist' politicians are usually described as having 'charisma' by 'centrist' media outlets who are looking at their own reflections.

    They are usually bland, unprincipled people who look like they drive Audis very badly whilst marketing hair dye.

    Bland, centrist politicians actually appeal to me, but I think there is a nugget of truth in what you say.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the hell Snapchat is worth $24 Bn

    "Plans revealed that the company had revenue of $404m last year, but made a loss of $515m."

    It's 1999 all over again. Hopefully we'll be treated to entertainment on the scale of Pets.com, Kozmo.com and (best of all) Webvan.

    Just don't get caught underfoot when the stampede for the exits begins. It will be very rapid indeed when it comes.
    If a stampede for the exits occurs taking both good and bad companies with it, Blizzard-Activision might be worth a buy.
    Can't see the value in it just now, but it make solid products and has a loyal fanbase with good revenues. Makes that all important "profit" too.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Could be SDLP take a seat from SF
    Is this different people voting or the same people voting again and again.? Sean Fein depend on the latter.
    Now I know what Sean_F stands for!
    Lol!

    It looks like turnout will be up across the board in Northern Ireland. In the EU referendum a lot of middle class voters who don't usually bother turned out to vote East of the Bann. If that's repeated today, it should help the UUP, SDLP, and Alliance.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    I've seen no evidence of Macron's charisma. He's sinister and weird.
    It is a bit like Nick Clegg charisma but it is there, both he and Le Pen certainly have more charisma than Fillon and Juppe, Sarkozy would be better on that front for the LRs if Fillon goes, it helped him beat Royal in 2007 and run the dull Hollande closer than expected in 2012
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.
    Only relatively. Everyone on that list has a negative score overall:

    Macron -3%
    Juppé -10%
    Hamon -13%
    Mélenchon -18%
    Le Pen -36%
    Dupont-Aignan -37%
    Fillon -48%

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2017
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    In a runoff between Juppe and Le Pen Juppe will win the centre but the hard left may not be so enthused, Le Pen also has higher very favourable ratings than he does and her supporters are very motivated. Even against Macron she now polls close to or above 40% and she could push that higher against Juppe
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    I've seen no evidence of Macron's charisma. He's sinister and weird.
    Arguably Blair was all three so they're not mutually exclusive.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the hell Snapchat is worth $24 Bn

    "Plans revealed that the company had revenue of $404m last year, but made a loss of $515m."

    It's 1999 all over again. Hopefully we'll be treated to entertainment on the scale of Pets.com, Kozmo.com and (best of all) Webvan.

    Just don't get caught underfoot when the stampede for the exits begins. It will be very rapid indeed when it comes.
    If a stampede for the exits occurs taking both good and bad companies with it, Blizzard-Activision might be worth a buy.
    Can't see the value in it just now, but it make solid products and has a loyal fanbase with good revenues. Makes that all important "profit" too.
    Amazed at the Snapchat valuation, not only because they don't make nor foresee making profits, but because the floated shares are non-voting. So you puts your money in, and you gots no say over how it is used, nor any means of hold the board accountable.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    He is one reason. Things will polarise more and "let's go Nordic" won't win Macron votes, even if people think of him as a nice guy.
  • Options
    The question is are they pre May 2015 members or the Corbynites quitting
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    In a runoff between Juppe and Le Pen Juppe will win the centre but the hard left may not be so enthused, Le Pen also has higher very favourable ratings than he does and her supporters are very motivated. Even against Macron she now polls close to or above 40% and she could push that higher against Juppe
    I agree that Le Pen stands a better chance against Juppe than Macron. Juppe entering the contest should see Le Pen's price fall, because Juppe could well get into the run-off.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    The crazy thing is that I love reading The Guardian. I just do. I just find it weird that it gives free range for people like Toynbee and Valenti. It can be the best newspaper in the world, and also the most embarrassing. Perhaps that is why i like it.
    I still read the Guardian. It can still be very sharp, funny, inventive, and has some great writers. I respect Toynbee for sheer longevity, I find Owen Jones interesting. Also Monbiot. I think half their opinions are dangerous or mad, but they are sincere, and they also check their facts.

    I would probably prefer to read the Guardian over the Telegraph, not least because the Guardian challenges me more.

    Which is why Fake News shite like this on Irene Clennell is so depressing. If the Guardian is just gonna turn into Buzzfeed, then I might as well save time and just read Buzzfeed (which I do for about 3 minutes a day, without believing most of it, or caring a jot)
    Apparently the Guardian website is fairly popular in the United States, which isn't necessarily something you would have predicted a few years ago.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Cyan said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    He is one reason. Things will polarise more and "let's go Nordic" won't win Macron votes, even if people think of him as a nice guy.
    That's a caricature of his economic programme. The substance is more like a French version of Schroeder's Hartz IV reforms.
  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    The question is are they pre May 2015 members or the Corbynites quitting

    The article says that three-quarters of those who have left are post-May 2015 joiners.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    The crazy thing is that I love reading The Guardian. I just do. I just find it weird that it gives free range for people like Toynbee and Valenti. It can be the best newspaper in the world, and also the most embarrassing. Perhaps that is why i like it.
    I still read the Guardian. It can still be very sharp, funny, inventive, and has some great writers. I respect Toynbee for sheer longevity, I find Owen Jones interesting. Also Monbiot. I think half their opinions are dangerous or mad, but they are sincere, and they also check their facts.

    I would probably prefer to read the Guardian over the Telegraph, not least because the Guardian challenges me more.

    Which is why Fake News shite like this on Irene Clennell is so depressing. If the Guardian is just gonna turn into Buzzfeed, then I might as well save time and just read Buzzfeed (which I do for about 3 minutes a day, without believing most of it, or caring a jot)
    Apparently the Guardian website is fairly popular in the United States, which isn't necessarily something you would have predicted a few years ago.
    The joke always used to be that the New York Times was Le Monde translated. The Guardian has the advantage of being readable by the average American.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    Find the tapes of that motorbike trip to the DDR.
  • Options
    Upon closer inspection three quarters of the quitters are post May 2015 joiners.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    I've seen no evidence of Macron's charisma. He's sinister and weird.
    Arguably Blair was all three so they're not mutually exclusive.
    Early Blair projected mammalian qualities, Macron is clearly reptilian.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    Should the locals in May be terrible, pressure the unions to tell him to step down, surely on they could get him to do so now.
  • Options

    Something dodgy about the remain and leave percentages for NI, they add up to 102%. At least it wasn't the turnout!

    The figures I have for Northern Ireland are REMAIN 440,707 votes (55.7%), LEAVE 349,442 votes (44.2%) on a turnout of 62.7% and come from the Electoral Commission, so therefore I must have pressed a 6 when I meant to press a 4

    Makes sense, thanks
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Still way up on previously though I imagine.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    The Labour rule book appears designed to keep the party leader protected and in place, so unless he decides to stand aside, Jeremy's there till 2020.

    Try bribery, offer him a bigger garden allotment...
  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    The crazy thing is that I love reading The Guardian. I just do. I just find it weird that it gives free range for people like Toynbee and Valenti. It can be the best newspaper in the world, and also the most embarrassing. Perhaps that is why i like it.
    The Guardian is simply a better paper than the Telegraph, although I read both from time to time. The problem is I rarely buy papers at all, which is sad because all three great British broadsheets are brilliant products. When I do buy a paper, I tend to lean towards the Times. But all three of the great broadsheets are undersold. Maybe we need to find a new funding model for broadsheet newspapers. They are our heritage.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The incredible truth about Irene Clennell, and the Fake News lies told by Buzzfeed, et al

    http://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/q-irene-clennell-immigration-case.html

    Can't spell Farage - bad journalism
    Farage NEVER promised £350m to NHS - fake news
    Makes it

    I guess journalists, especially freelancers, or writers on chancy sites like Buzzzfeed, must now be so desperate scared of poverty and unemployment they don't care. Sad.
    I just get the feeling more and more, journalists and news outlets are more interested in pushing their agenda than informing the public of the facts. Of course, there are multiple sides to a story, but it is increasingly harder to find a balanced view. It seems more important to back the side you believe in rather than reporting honestly.
    Yes.

    Ironically, for rightwingers, this makes the BBC more valuable - notably the Beeb was the first major news outlet to pin down the actual facts in this case - i.e. that she'd spent 20 of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Because of the unique way the BBC is funded, it doesn't have to chase clicks and readers, especially when it comes to news, and it has a reputation to uphold, so it maintains that unique funding. It is probably the least likely source of Fake News.
    The crazy thing is that I love reading The Guardian. I just do. I just find it weird that it gives free range for people like Toynbee and Valenti. It can be the best newspaper in the world, and also the most embarrassing. Perhaps that is why i like it.
    I still read the Guardian. It can still be very sharp, funny, inventive, and has some great writers. I respect Toynbee for sheer longevity, I find Owen Jones interesting. Also Monbiot. I think half their opinions are dangerous or mad, but they are sincere, and they also check their facts.

    I would probably prefer to read the Guardian over the Telegraph, not least because the Guardian challenges me more.

    Which is why Fake News shite like this on Irene Clennell is so depressing. If the Guardian is just gonna turn into Buzzfeed, then I might as well save time and just read Buzzfeed (which I do for about 3 minutes a day, without believing most of it, or caring a jot)
    Apparently the Guardian website is fairly popular in the United States, which isn't necessarily something you would have predicted a few years ago.
    Yeah well its better then the Huffington Post.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    Cyan said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    He is one reason. Things will polarise more and "let's go Nordic" won't win Macron votes, even if people think of him as a nice guy.
    That's a caricature of his economic programme. The substance is more like a French version of Schroeder's Hartz IV reforms.
    Three Hartz reforms are why Germany went from sick man of the Euro to it's greatest success story.
  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    The question is are they pre May 2015 members or the Corbynites quitting

    Hyufd will be along shortly to reassure us all that Corbyn is safe forever more.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,156
    SeanT said:

    Just remembered that new book deal I got this afternoon.

    Heh.

    Sorry, but

    Heh.

    I'm gonna play Coldplay's Viva la Vida VERY LOUD AND DANCE AROUND MY FLAT AND I DON'T CARE

    Jeesus, Coldplay.
    Your vilest and most shocking confession yet.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    The question is are they pre May 2015 members or the Corbynites quitting

    The article says that three-quarters of those who have left are post-May 2015 joiners.
    A super anecdotal straw in the wind is that in this morning's Shortlist magazine the ultra-leftie Corbynista singer from the Standford Mods revealed he was letting his membership lapse because of overly zealous social media monitoring from the [Red Tory] Labour press team. Don't worry - I had never heard of him either.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2017
    Newsnight just had an interesting Russian from the Royal United Services Institute and his take on what the Putin tactics were / are.

    He basically said the Russian's didn't want Trump, all the wikileaks stuff was undermine Clinton as president from the get-go and weaken her on the international stage...but they wanted Clinton because she would always react to events in a predictable and so Putin would know where the red lines were, what he could get away with etc etc etc, where as Trump doesn't play by the rules of the game and so they don't know what might cause him to go off on one.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    SeanT said:

    Just remembered that new book deal I got this afternoon.

    Heh.

    Sorry, but

    Heh.

    I'm gonna play Coldplay's Viva la Vida VERY LOUD AND DANCE AROUND MY FLAT AND I DON'T CARE

    Jeesus, Coldplay.
    Your vilest and most shocking confession yet.
    Sick, isn't it? I'd rather cut off a limb than listen to coldplay
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    SeanT said:

    Just remembered that new book deal I got this afternoon.

    Heh.

    Sorry, but

    Heh.

    I'm gonna play Coldplay's Viva la Vida VERY LOUD AND DANCE AROUND MY FLAT AND I DON'T CARE

    Coldplay...deary me...good taste in vino and hotels, but clearly none in music!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    A tragic "accident" whilst inspecting his manhole collection?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    SeanT said:

    Just remembered that new book deal I got this afternoon.

    Heh.

    Sorry, but

    Heh.

    I'm gonna play Coldplay's Viva la Vida VERY LOUD AND DANCE AROUND MY FLAT AND I DON'T CARE

    Jeesus, Coldplay.
    Your vilest and most shocking confession yet.
    He's probably just negated all his publishing deals with a confession like that....
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Newsnight just had an interesting Russian from the Royal United Services Institute and his take on what the Putin tactics were / are.

    He basically said the Russian's didn't want Trump, all the wikileaks stuff was undermine Clinton as president from the get-go and weaken her on the international stage...but they wanted Clinton because she would always react to events in a predictable and so Putin would know where the red lines were, what he could get away with etc etc etc, where as Trump doesn't play by the rules of the game and so they don't know what might cause him to go off on one.

    Most of that analysis is balls.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    SeanT said:

    Just remembered that new book deal I got this afternoon.

    Heh.

    Sorry, but

    Heh.

    I'm gonna play Coldplay's Viva la Vida VERY LOUD AND DANCE AROUND MY FLAT AND I DON'T CARE

    Jeesus, Coldplay.
    Your vilest and most shocking confession yet.
    If that's what it takes to crack America, sometimes it's better to be a Cliff Richard.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    Cyan said:

    Let me get this straight: Alain Juppé is angling to replace François Fillon as the LR candidate, because Fillon is under investigation for possibly having fiddled his expenses. Is this the same Juppé who was convicted for abuse of public funds, a crime for which he was given a suspended jail sentence and the deprivation of the right to run for office for 10 years, later reduced to one year? Fillon hasn't been found guilty of the criminal misuse of office. He hasn't even been tried. Juppé has a criminal record for it.

    And yet Juppe is far more popular than Fillon. Second only to Macron in terms of popularity and a pretty close second too. It will be very tight between these two should Juppe replace Fillon.

    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/03/02/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-0211789546588.jpg
    Juppe is archetypal establishment, lacks charisma and has a shady past, he also would be imposed on the LRs having lost the primary, in a runoff campaign against him Le Pen would have a lot to go on
    And yet, as the poll shows, he retains high popularity.

    Le Pen also does better than you might expect in that poll but Juppe represents the same pro globalisation and pro EU and ultimately pro immigration forces as Macron but without the latter's charisma and with a more establishment air and a shady past
    Le Pen scores exactly what one might expect her to score, a positive score of 28 which is roughly where she is polling for President. It is the hefty negative rating that will drag her down.

    Juppe however is shown not only as the second most popular politician in France, but also, along with Macron, the least negative rating.

    Juppe is why the odds-on price on Macron is a terrible bet at the moment.
    In a runoff between Juppe and Le Pen Juppe will win the centre but the hard left may not be so enthused, Le Pen also has higher very favourable ratings than he does and her supporters are very motivated. Even against Macron she now polls close to or above 40% and she could push that higher against Juppe
    I agree that Le Pen stands a better chance against Juppe than Macron. Juppe entering the contest should see Le Pen's price fall, because Juppe could well get into the run-off.
    Yes, Le Pen should be cheering for Juppe to enter the race
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Y0kel said:

    Newsnight just had an interesting Russian from the Royal United Services Institute and his take on what the Putin tactics were / are.

    He basically said the Russian's didn't want Trump, all the wikileaks stuff was undermine Clinton as president from the get-go and weaken her on the international stage...but they wanted Clinton because she would always react to events in a predictable and so Putin would know where the red lines were, what he could get away with etc etc etc, where as Trump doesn't play by the rules of the game and so they don't know what might cause him to go off on one.

    Most of that analysis is balls.
    Well it is Newsnight....so should be expected.
  • Options
    If we're admitting to unpopular musical tastes/choices.

    I prefer Phil Collins era Genesis over Peter Gabriel era Genesis.

    There I said it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    chestnut said:

    'Centrist' politicians are usually described as having 'charisma' by 'centrist' media outlets who are looking at their own reflections.

    They are usually bland, unprincipled people who look like they drive Audis very badly whilst marketing hair dye.

    It is not necessarily a centrist, right or left thing, Le Pen has charisma for example, Nuttall does not, Macron has charisma, Juppe does not, Trump and Obama have charisma, Hillary and Romney did not
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Newsnight just had an interesting Russian from the Royal United Services Institute and his take on what the Putin tactics were / are.

    He basically said the Russian's didn't want Trump, all the wikileaks stuff was undermine Clinton as president from the get-go and weaken her on the international stage...but they wanted Clinton because she would always react to events in a predictable and so Putin would know where the red lines were, what he could get away with etc etc etc, where as Trump doesn't play by the rules of the game and so they don't know what might cause him to go off on one.

    Leaking his tax returns would be unlikely not to cause him to go off on one.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Yokel, your boys are taking a hell of a beating in Syria and Iraq.
    My boys? Who exactly are my boys?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    Send him on a night cycle along Beachy Head and switch the signs around is probably your best bet!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    HYUFD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    Send him on a night cycle along Beachy Head and switch the signs around is probably your best bet!
    Problem is he would probably take the train to get there and fall asleep on the way and miss his stop.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    If he's got Tories talking about offing him, he can't be doing that bad a job.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    What on earth do the Russians have on him? It's clearly not nothing. Something big for him to be so defensive.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Evening, jokers. Can someone please offer ideas on how to oust Corbyn (other than another long sentence from @HYUFD on why we have to keep him until an apocalyptic election defeat in May 2020). Cheers.

    Send him on a night cycle along Beachy Head and switch the signs around is probably your best bet!
    Problem is he would probably take the train to get there and fall asleep on the way and miss his stop.
    Yes, I think Rasputin was easier to get rid of
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    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the Guardian website is fairly popular in the United States, which isn't necessarily something you would have predicted a few years ago.

    Yeah well its better then the Huffington Post.
    Unsurprising really. Almost all the news and most of the writers seem to be USA based.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    edited March 2017
    X
    SeanT said:

    I'll tell you who else is good, the fucking BEE GEES. That's who.

    How Deep Is Your Love is just genius.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpqqjU7u5Yc

    And you wanna know who else is good? Well? Do you??????


    *adopts weirdly punchy stance*

    Hall & Oates

    She's Gone is probably the best song about male heartbreak EVAH

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpR8r0D2EyY

    The 75-79 era bee gees were fantastic

    This is my fav version of a Hall n Oates song, Hall and Tunstall to be precise

    What a Barnet for a man in his 60s!!

    https://youtu.be/qfJeyD_BspA
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited March 2017
    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    Y0kel said:

    Brief guide to current Trump administration situation:

    1. Everyone denies contact with Russian government officials during the campaign.

    2. Information emerges via leaks that they have had such contacts, more than once.

    3. Those caught out claim they forgot any such contacts then have to walk the plank in some shape or form.

    4. Go to 1.

    We haven't even got to the substance of this yet but it will arrive.

    Some of the speculation downthread on the NI Assembly elections is worth nada. As well as the current issues plaguing the DUP the whole election mechanics have changed with only 5 seats per constituency this time around. Throw in the STV system and you just cant tell.

    For reference I voted DUP because I'm a centre right liberal.

    That doesn't make sense to you guys does it? Thats how much people don't get this place.


    What on earth do the Russians have on him? It's clearly not nothing. Something big for him to be so defensive.
    Or just plain lacks smarts.

    My stance hasn't changed from late 2016. They have a considerable financial rudder control and information about his leisure activities.

    The most obvious route though is to follow the money on him and some of closest circle.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2017

    Toxic May sees a 22% swing against the blues.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/837440549867163648

    Labour and UKIP see a bigger swing against them in the same ward and just a week ago Toxic May made the first parliamentary by election for a governing party in 35 years
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,156
    SeanT said:

    I'll tell you who else is good, the fucking BEE GEES. That's who.

    How Deep Is Your Love is just genius.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpqqjU7u5Yc

    And you wanna know who else is good? Well? Do you??????


    *adopts weirdly punchy stance*

    Hall & Oates

    She's Gone is probably the best song about male heartbreak EVAH

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpR8r0D2EyY

    *adopts teeny, inaudible whisper*
    Actually I quite like the Bee Gees and Hall & Oates.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
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    SeanT said:

    I'll tell you who else is good, the fucking BEE GEES. That's who.

    How Deep Is Your Love is just genius.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpqqjU7u5Yc

    And you wanna know who else is good? Well? Do you??????


    *adopts weirdly punchy stance*

    Hall & Oates

    She's Gone is probably the best song about male heartbreak EVAH

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpR8r0D2EyY

    *adopts teeny, inaudible whisper*
    Actually I quite like the Bee Gees and Hall & Oates.
    The Bee Gees are awesome, their tracks were covered by two of my all time favourite bands, Take That and Steps.
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    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    He could declare between now and Sunday.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    He could declare between now and Sunday.
    If he does declare and forces Fillon out he probably overtakes Macron as the new favourite for the presidency but Le Pen's odds will also shorten
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?

    He said Ripples. Almost every Gabriel track is better than Ripples...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.
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    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    Google translate should help you out!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited March 2017

    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    Google translate should help you out!
    Well sure, but I wanted to have a go first! Granted it was entirely on the basis that i recognised, I think, the word for Sunday, and there were words that looked like prepare and declare, but it still counts as an attempt.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Probably already mentioned but two new Dutch polls:

    Ipsos put VVD/Rutte on 28 over PVV/WIlders on 24 whereas I&O have it 25 over 22(with the GL - the Green Left - on 20).

    Betfair (2.25) is a HOLD but Ladbrokes/Betway (2.5) is therefore a small buy.

    I got a small amount on at 3.45 which I am happy about :)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    better than anything they did with Gabriel

    For a man who has been raging against Fake News all day, to then post the single most wrong statement in the history of PB is ironic...
    He's right, name a single better track Gabriel did that was better than Invisible Touch?
    In Your Eyes (live) by Peter Gabriel and his crazy backing band beats any genesis for me. My fav Genesis song is Collins era though, 'Turn it on again'

    https://youtu.be/VK7Z83UbwKM
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Anyone recommend any good sites for following all the NI action tomorrow. I mean complete with all the transfers rather than the pathetic usual BBC coverage of STV elections?

    Also any chance of SF topping the poll?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Damn I wish I had more than 2 years of the most basic French.

    Juppe is prepared to declare on Sunday?
    Google translate should help you out!
    Well sure, but I wanted to have a go first! Granted it was entirely on the basis that i recognised, I think, the word for Sunday, and there were words that looked like prepare and declare, but it still counts as an attempt.
    Yes.

    Note that under the French electoral system the last date you can declare is 17 March, at which point you need 500 signatures from councillors (at various levels) but Juppé doesn't need much more than 48 hours for that I wouldn't think.
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    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Some Tories on the ground in Salford optimistic about taking Kersal from Labour.

    Was about to splutter my tea, then I remembered Kersal has a significant Jewish population, so less surprising that they're not too keen to vote for Mr Corbyn's party these days.
    and the Con candidate is a local rabbi!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Probably already mentioned but two new Dutch polls:

    Ipsos put VVD/Rutte on 28 over PVV/WIlders on 24 whereas I&O have it 25 over 22(with the GL - the Green Left - on 20).

    Betfair (2.25) is a HOLD but Ladbrokes/Betway (2.5) is therefore a small buy.

    I got a small amount on at 3.45 which I am happy about :)

    Peil and TNS NIPO still have the PVV ahead and De Stemming has it tied
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
This discussion has been closed.