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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TudorRose said:

    I see that Ladbrokes have got a book on the hereditary peers by-election... anyone got any ideas which of their noble lordships has the edge?

    Shadsy is brave indeed - I'd have thought that was a market which anyone other than insiders shouldn't touch with a bargepole.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him, since most of them are either totally unproven, or proven to be useless.
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    TudorRose said:

    I see that Ladbrokes have got a book on the hereditary peers by-election... anyone got any ideas which of their noble lordships has the edge?

    Earl Alexander of Tunis.
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    Their Lordships use the finest voting system in the known universe, AV, to conduct their election.

    Would anyone like me to do a thread on that?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Mr. HYUFD, if there were any justice in the world, Baroin would get the nod.

    It's ridiculous Fillon's seemingly going to cruise through.

    If this goes on much longer the LR men in grey suits may have a word in his ear, especially if his poll rating really starts to dip much further
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2017
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him.
    All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    This guy needs to be caught,for what ever reason he did it,very worrying in my eyes.

    Officers seeking driver of black hatchback who drove at fans leaving Valley Parade after draw with MK Dons

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15129676.Police_hunt_driver_who_injured_man_after_driving_at_Bradford_City_fans/
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited March 2017
    SNP almost entirely publicly funded. Who'd have guessed that SNP supporters were less than open-handed ?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Northern Ireland polling report on possible outcomes.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9812
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    On your first day as a spin doctor for the opposition there are a few things that you probably shouldn’t do. Near the top of that list is going to the pub and asking a Muslim journalist if they are an Al Qaeda supporter.

    But that’s what Steve Howell did on Monday after starting his job as Jeremy Corbyn’s new deputy director of communications.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/corbyn-spinners-disastrous-trip-pub/
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    SNP almost entirely publicly funded. Who'd have guessed that SNP supporters were less than open-handed ?

    They donate their time and passion I guess.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    TudorRose said:

    I see that Ladbrokes have got a book on the hereditary peers by-election... anyone got any ideas which of their noble lordships has the edge?

    Earl Alexander of Tunis.
    Certainly the most exotic of the candidates (by name) - although Lord Macpherson of Drumochter runs him a close second!
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    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    I see that Ladbrokes have got a book on the hereditary peers by-election... anyone got any ideas which of their noble lordships has the edge?

    Earl Alexander of Tunis.
    Certainly the most exotic of the candidates (by name) - although Lord Macpherson of Drumochter runs him a close second!
    I was thinking of seguing in a second battle of El Alamein reference, but it was beyond me.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's 14th April 1983 again on BBC4:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcfour
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130

    SNP almost entirely publicly funded. Who'd have guessed that SNP supporters were less than open-handed ?

    I suppose £3m a year in membership fees from 120k plus members does count as public funding.
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    Their Lordships use the finest voting system in the known universe, AV, to conduct their election.

    Would anyone like me to do a thread on that?

    Thought you'd never offer. Praise be
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    SNP almost entirely publicly funded. Who'd have guessed that SNP supporters were less than open-handed ?

    I suppose £3m a year in membership fees from 120k plus members does count as public funding.
    Plus they got £1 million from Brian Souter in 2014 which can probably keep them going for a bit
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28774942
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Charlie Manson's stare is less madly homicidal.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    dr_spyn said:

    Northern Ireland polling report on possible outcomes.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9812

    Looks like turnout will be up. No way the numbers work otherwise.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2017/Arrangments-by-election-01-03-17.pdf

    CVs of the 27 candidates are in the attached document.

    Historically the more prestigious the peerage the better chance of winning.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him, since most of them are either totally unproven, or proven to be useless.
    And Eddie Balls would make a great celebrity hubbie
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    I see Melania Trump has been reading Dr Seuss to children in a New York hospital. 'The pussy in the hat' doesn't have quite the same ring about it....
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    SNP almost entirely publicly funded. Who'd have guessed that SNP supporters were less than open-handed ?

    I suppose £3m a year in membership fees from 120k plus members does count as public funding.
    Have the fat lottery winners eaten their winnings already ?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Vulgar boasting alert: just got offer for a new book deal which involved the word "million".

    To be fair, a fraction thereof, but a hefty fraction.

    I LOVE offers that include the word "million"

    At the cost of what fraction of your soul?
    Zero. I have no soul left. I sold out to Mammon years ago. It's very liberating. I used to worry about prizes and reviews and all that posterity shit. Now I don't give a picayune fucklet.

    All that matters is lots of readers and LOTS of lovely moolah.
    On the subject of 'literature':
    I was reflecting last night that Julia Donaldson is a genius. She has a good claim to be our greatest living poet.
    Due to having a ridiculous number of young children, there must be at least 15 of her books that I have read, out loud, over 100 times, and still find them fun. That's more than just popular. Peppa Pig is popular (and justifiably so) but try reading it out loud and see how you find it. You need to do more than just tell a story to write stories that can be read, and read, and read again. You need to be able to make the language sing.
    And she can do it all in a way that three-year-olds can understand.
    No Booker Prize winner, no poet laureate, has a better mastery of the language.
    totally agree. Like Shakespeare she has a story, words and poetry.
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    Oh 'kin hell. Dan Hannan can't be this thick, can he?

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/837260085260926976
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Vulgar boasting alert: just got offer for a new book deal which involved the word "million".

    To be fair, a fraction thereof, but a hefty fraction.

    I LOVE offers that include the word "million"

    At the cost of what fraction of your soul?
    Zero. I have no soul left. I sold out to Mammon years ago. It's very liberating. I used to worry about prizes and reviews and all that posterity shit. Now I don't give a picayune fucklet.

    All that matters is lots of readers and LOTS of lovely moolah.
    On the subject of 'literature':
    I was reflecting last night that Julia Donaldson is a genius. She has a good claim to be our greatest living poet.
    Due to having a ridiculous number of young children, there must be at least 15 of her books that I have read, out loud, over 100 times, and still find them fun. That's more than just popular. Peppa Pig is popular (and justifiably so) but try reading it out loud and see how you find it. You need to do more than just tell a story to write stories that can be read, and read, and read again. You need to be able to make the language sing.
    And she can do it all in a way that three-year-olds can understand.
    No Booker Prize winner, no poet laureate, has a better mastery of the language.
    I hate "chocolate mousse for greedy goose"! (but do quite like Zog the Dragon)
    Zog was my son's favourite story for about three months.

    It's sad that my two children have now grown out of JD :-(
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Vulgar boasting alert: just got offer for a new book deal which involved the word "million".

    To be fair, a fraction thereof, but a hefty fraction.

    I LOVE offers that include the word "million"

    At the cost of what fraction of your soul?
    Zero. I have no soul left. I sold out to Mammon years ago. It's very liberating. I used to worry about prizes and reviews and all that posterity shit. Now I don't give a picayune fucklet.

    All that matters is lots of readers and LOTS of lovely moolah.
    On the subject of 'literature':
    I was reflecting last night that Julia Donaldson is a genius. She has a good claim to be our greatest living poet.
    Due to having a ridiculous number of young children, there must be at least 15 of her books that I have read, out loud, over 100 times, and still find them fun. That's more than just popular. Peppa Pig is popular (and justifiably so) but try reading it out loud and see how you find it. You need to do more than just tell a story to write stories that can be read, and read, and read again. You need to be able to make the language sing.
    And she can do it all in a way that three-year-olds can understand.
    No Booker Prize winner, no poet laureate, has a better mastery of the language.
    I hate "chocolate mousse for greedy goose"! (but do quite like Zog the Dragon)
    Zog was my son's favourite story for about three months.

    It's sad that my two children have now grown out of JD :-(
    See if they enjoy A Game of Thrones.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Vulgar boasting alert: just got offer for a new book deal which involved the word "million".

    To be fair, a fraction thereof, but a hefty fraction.

    I LOVE offers that include the word "million"

    At the cost of what fraction of your soul?
    Zero. I have no soul left. I sold out to Mammon years ago. It's very liberating. I used to worry about prizes and reviews and all that posterity shit. Now I don't give a picayune fucklet.

    All that matters is lots of readers and LOTS of lovely moolah.
    On the subject of 'literature':
    I was reflecting last night that Julia Donaldson is a genius. She has a good claim to be our greatest living poet.
    Due to having a ridiculous number of young children, there must be at least 15 of her books that I have read, out loud, over 100 times, and still find them fun. That's more than just popular. Peppa Pig is popular (and justifiably so) but try reading it out loud and see how you find it. You need to do more than just tell a story to write stories that can be read, and read, and read again. You need to be able to make the language sing.
    And she can do it all in a way that three-year-olds can understand.
    No Booker Prize winner, no poet laureate, has a better mastery of the language.
    I hate "chocolate mousse for greedy goose"! (but do quite like Zog the Dragon)
    Zog was my son's favourite story for about three months.

    It's sad that my two children have now grown out of JD :-(
    See if they enjoy A Game of Thrones.
    :smile:

    Right now, my son is totally obsessed with Beast Quest, and my daughter with Warrior Cats.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Vulgar boasting alert: just got offer for a new book deal which involved the word "million".

    To be fair, a fraction thereof, but a hefty fraction.

    I LOVE offers that include the word "million"

    At the cost of what fraction of your soul?
    Zero. I have no soul left. I sold out to Mammon years ago. It's very liberating. I used to worry about prizes and reviews and all that posterity shit. Now I don't give a picayune fucklet.

    All that matters is lots of readers and LOTS of lovely moolah.
    On the subject of 'literature':
    I was reflecting last night that Julia Donaldson is a genius. She has a good claim to be our greatest living poet.
    Due to having a ridiculous number of young children, there must be at least 15 of her books that I have read, out loud, over 100 times, and still find them fun. That's more than just popular. Peppa Pig is popular (and justifiably so) but try reading it out loud and see how you find it. You need to do more than just tell a story to write stories that can be read, and read, and read again. You need to be able to make the language sing.
    And she can do it all in a way that three-year-olds can understand.
    No Booker Prize winner, no poet laureate, has a better mastery of the language.
    I hate "chocolate mousse for greedy goose"! (but do quite like Zog the Dragon)
    Zog was my son's favourite story for about three months.

    It's sad that my two children have now grown out of JD :-(
    I'm sure they wouldn't object to you reading them just for your own enjoyment.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    Well, if we're back to talking about classic literature....

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/837392219506106368

    If you can't break America you'll always be a Cliff Richard rather than a Beatle or Stone. Well done nevertheless.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    Well, if we're back to talking about classic literature....

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/837392219506106368


    2 books?

    Hmm. Well there are two books with Zero in the title.

    Not sure why that's important to you though.

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    NEW THREAD

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,214

    Mr. Meeks, one never knows. Sometimes, clever people can be very stupid.

    I remember hearing of one chap, very high IQ (not that that's intelligence), who broke into next door and robbed it. He was located by the ingenious method of following the trail of muddy footprints that led to his door.

    There was an insider dealing case a few years ago where the banker and his wife had gone to great lengths to hide their tracks (giving cash to a 3rd party etc) but then the husband kept a CD in his garden shed with details of all his insider trading.......

    You need a special sort of intelligence to be that stupid.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    surbiton said:

    This is a splendid piece from Atul Hatwal on the Labour leadership, thinking just like a political punter should:

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/03/02/how-labours-potential-leadership-candidates-measure-up-against-member-priorities/#more-21396

    Very good in terms of how to look at the problem, I'm less convinced by the conclusions (though Heidi Alexander would be a better than par outcome for me).
    My thoughts too - I still like Nandy best. Though Stephen Bush let slip earlier that "the influential Tribune WhatsApp group of MPs is largely unified around Keir Starmer at the next leadership election, and they think they are well-placed to win it."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/labour-leadership-why-jeremy-corbyn-wont-be-listening-owen-jones

    NB members here, notably not including Nandy: http://www.labourtribunemps.org/members
    Sir Keir looks like the Yvette Cooper candidate next time: all the attributes that make him the obvious winner except two - any form of charisma and any particular message to convey.
    Keir will win hands down. We need someone with gravitas. He has that in spades.
    I know plenty of my Labour chums invest a lot of hope in Keir. To my mind, he walks a tightrope between gravitas and terminally dull. And falls off.
    Thank god its not just me who gets that impression! I find both Dan Jarvis and Stephen Kinnock far more impressive. To me Keir Starmer is Labour equivalent of Philip Hammond.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    DavidL said:

    If Labour are to do well at the next election (and by well I mean not having yet another net loss of seats) they really need Ed Balls to stand in Gorton and then find a way for him to replace Corbyn before 2019. It is not a complete solution to their problems but it is so much a better solution than anything else on the table to barely need thinking about.

    Being parachuted into his last seat did not end well for Ed Balls at the last GE...
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    Bojabob said:

    surbiton said:

    Merkel & May:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-angela-merkel-splitting-differences-similarities-uk-germany/

    Interesting comment on cultural differences:

    Germans, her aide told her, “think like Lego bricks.”

    “You make decision A, B and C,” the aide explained.

    “The Brits are very happy to suddenly go back and throw it all up in the air.

    But the Germans would say, ‘no, no, we’ve made decision A, we’ve made decision B, so decision C can only be this, because we can’t revisit what we’ve done before.’”


    Gells with my experience....'No, no, you can't do that because we've agreed X - what if we change X? Looks of horror....

    I have worked closely with Germans for 31 years. This is so utterly true.

    "But, we've already decided..."
    No wonder they are more productive. Endlessly revisiting decisions and debating them is a problem in British management. Of course, this wouldn't be necessary were the decision making processes better in the first place.
    Might be good for general industrial productivity, but not for creativity or crisis management.
    Agreed. But sadly the systematic inability to make a decision and move on is crippling British productivity - hence why are becoming the sick man of northern Europe in terms of output per hour worked. Mostly it is a fault of big companies having three rungs of people to make a single decision.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    The difficulty for Kier is he is not a woman. I detect a definite feeling that next time it must be a woman.

    That's what Atul Hatwal said in the Labour-Uncut piece linked earlier. I'm interested to hear where this feeling is showing itself. Even at the last Labour leadership election, it was looking to me as though a majority of Labour members found voting for a woman unthinkable.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Not finding any of the particular women on offer good enough =/= finding voting for any woman unthinkable
    No female candidate for Labour leader has ever beaten any male candidate.
    But two women have been elected as Deputy Leader.

    I can't really understand the thought process that Labour members would be so virulently sexist that they would refuse to have a female leader, yet somehow at the same time that sexism doesn't stop them from being happy to have a female Deputy.
    The other thing is, who exactly are the Labour women that people think were passed over for the leadership because of sexism.

    Is anyone (whatever their political views) really going to argue that Labour members were sexist in 1994 because they didn't think Margaret Beckett was a more impressive politician than Tony Blair?!?!
    I think the one time where Labour really should have had its first female leader was in 2015. Yvette Cooper really should have won that contest, and I thought so at the time. She was the best option by far. Kendall was far too close ideologically to the government. Burnham struggled to commit to certain positions on issues at times. Corbyn was obviously unelectable.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him.
    All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003
    You might be right but I do suspect you of wishful thinking at times re: Corbyn staying until GE2020, which is odd because you are only just a Tory, ideologically. In his post, Hatwal lays out very compellingly why Corbyn will be gone by 2018, if not before.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him.
    All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003
    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said
    ' All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003'

    Corbyn did NOT increase his victory margin 6 months ago! His vote share went up from 59.5% to 61.8% but that was simply because in 2015 there were four candidates rather than two. His margin over Owen Smith was 23.6% in 2016 - compared with over 40% over Andy Burnham in 2015.

    Yes, so he got an even higher voteshare in 2016 than he did in 2015 so if anything Labour members are even more supportive of Corbyn than they were then
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Bojabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him.
    All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003
    You might be right but I do suspect you of wishful thinking at times re: Corbyn staying until GE2020, which is odd because you are only just a Tory, ideologically. In his post, Hatwal lays out very compellingly why Corbyn will be gone by 2018, if not before.
    Until polls start to show Corbyn losing the support of the membership he will go at a time of his choosing
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    Bojabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    For what it's worth, as a Labour member who voted Corbyn last year (though not originally in 2015), my choice would be Yvette Cooper in the next contest.

    She's not great, but in terms of political positioning, she's just about tolerable (unlike the ridiculous hardcore Blairite stuff that Kendall/Chuka/Tristram and the like were coming out with in the aftermath of the 2015 election), and although she hardly set the world alight with her media performances as Shadow Home Secretary in the last parliament, she atleast showed she has some basic political and presentational skills.

    The newbies like Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Clive Lewis, Angela Rayner et al are nowhere close to being ready for the big time. And I barely noticed this Heidi Alexander in all the time that she was (allegedly) Labour's health spokesperson.

    This would be the same Yvette who got just 17% in the 2015 Labour leadership contest from the Labour membership and came not just miles behind Corbyn but was also beaten by Burnham too
    All the same, I think she's the least-worst option for Labour right now.

    She won't win the 2020 election for Labour, but she would keep the party on the road - something which sadly is in doubt with Corbyn, and, I think, with some of the "favourites" to replace him.
    All very well but until the Labour membership show any sign of returning to sanity this is all entirely hypothetical, Corbyn even increased his victory margin just 6 months ago.

    If Labour are going to replace Corbyn pre 2020 that probably requires him to agree to go which at the moment looks unlikely and it will have to be with someone of the same ideological bent but more competent, similar to how the Tories replaced IDS with Michael Howard in 2003
    You might be right but I do suspect you of wishful thinking at times re: Corbyn staying until GE2020, which is odd because you are only just a Tory, ideologically. In his post, Hatwal lays out very compellingly why Corbyn will be gone by 2018, if not before.
    Until polls start to show Corbyn losing the support of the membership he will go at a time of his choosing
    I joined as a full member in May 2015. I joined because I was enthused by what I saw in Corbyn as rare qualities in a politician -honesty and integrity. I stayed loyal to him when he was elected the second time.

    However, I really do hope he sees sense soon and negotiates a way to stand down that will ensure someone like Clive Lewis gets on the ballot. I cannot believe I am alone in that thought amongst the new intake of members.

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