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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?
Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA
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First.
The SDP proved how resilient the Labour Party can be even in its darkest hour.
Makes up a bit for the hopeless canvass-based predictions in Broxtowe in 2015...
IIRC there are a couple more Council results to come.
Methinks the Councity Council elections in May may well see two headlines the Lib Dems getting large gains maybe 200, whilst UKIP crumble away.
Seriously, if the May locals show similar swings to last night - from Miliband's high point in 2013 - then it's got to be time for Sensible Labour to do something.
Will the PM dare to put a motion for a GE under the FTPA on the day A50 is invoked next month? Watching the Opposition vote against having an election would be hilarious to watch.
I am ex Labour, if Ukip die my vote is up for grabs and it ain't going to Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbot etc!
My parents are are council house raised, trade unionists who vote labour all their lives and they prefer May to Corbyn. Labour need to sort it else they'll die
Mcmao will say anything , remember he only joined labour as an enterist.
Copeland: Green Jack Lenox 515 1.7% -1.3
Stoke: Green Adam Colclough 294 1.4% -2.2
I think on here we know to take with a large pinch of salt any predictions from the actual candidate before an election!
So, what to do with a problem like Jeremy?
India lost their last seven wickets for 11 runs.
From 93/3 to 104 all out.
Positively Englandesque
1) A unity candidate. This candidate will probably not win the next general election but may steady the ship. Options include Sir Keir Starmer, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband (of course), Harriet Harman and Tom Watson.
2) A heart and soul candidate. This candidate might start to reconnect Labour with their lost supporters (from successive elections). Such a candidate cannot have the least taint of metropolitan elite and will need a good back story. Options include Lisa Nandy, Dan Jarvis, Angela Rayner and Jon Ashworth.
3) A continuity left candidate with more competence. Rebecca Long-Bailey and Clive Lewis are the best options here (John McDonnell is the other obvious contender).
If I were installing a new Labour leader Lisa Nandy would be my choice because she is actually doing some thinking about who Labour need to appeal to. But what do I know?
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 11m11 minutes ago
In Copeland voters were given a choice. "Vote for Jeremy Corbyn or your hospital will close and you will die". They preferred death.
Only Labour - I suspect - would theoretically oppose a new election. And even there, there are presumably MPs who would be desperate to see the back of Corbyn and might see it as the only way.
Tories felt confident in Copeland
UKIP busted flush
Lab to win Stoke, lose Copeland
Electing Nandy now would be like the Tories electing Hague in 1997 - the right person at the wrong time, five years early.
Treading water in Stoke was almost as good as the win in Copeland, it certainly naused my bets!
UKIP don't really have an angle to get at her, even immigration is coming down!
Credit where credit is due I say
I'd say she'll come in handy.
So assuming everyone else does than means 19 Lab MPs need to vote in favour, that sounds possible as a rebellion on something so fundamental.
The elephant in the room is the SNP though, wouldn't take much for them to abstain en masse at the last minute if they thought it would embarrass the government - and abstentions count as much as votes against in this context.
On the politics, others have already said most of what I'd want to say, but there's one aspect which hasn't received too much attention. In normal circumstances, Theresa May's small majority would be a significant cause of worry for her, because she could expect it to get eaten away by the normal vicissitudes of mid-term by-elections. The fact that she was actually able to win a seat off Labour suggests that might well be one thing she doesn't have to worry about too much. In fact, it seems likely that there will be further Labour MPs who drift off to do more rewarding things (almost any job is more rewarding than being a Labour MP at the moment), so the risk of further by-election losses might be greater for Labour than for the Tories. That in turn means that the probability of the government lasting the full term to 2020 has just increased.
I don't think she'll try to engineer an opportunistic election to take advantage of Labour's little local difficulties. It's not her style, it's always a risk, she has more than enough on her plate with Brexit, and it would undermine her message of stability and good governance at the next election.
The nearer to John Smith the better
Would give them a mandate for it, and Mrs May would struggle to deny it.
He allowed me to shift ~ £240 profit over to the Tories in Copeland at what I considered fair odds. What a superstar that man is.
My point was more that the SNP would do an Ed-Miliband-on-the-Syria-vote if they thought they'd gain any short term advantage by doing so. They'd try and portray Con and Lab as weak at the same time by abstaining.
Hillary had Obama and her husband both strong ex-POTUS on the stump for her whereas Trump was being disowned by his own side back in November.
Didn't get enough of those crucial Philly/Milwaukee/Detroit votes out.
FTPA is as bad a law as the Dangerous Dogs Act.
The biggest risk to SNP hegemony is Tory weakness combined with a Labour revival. No risk of that this year though.
He didn't lose any by-elections and gained two MPs from defections. However, he also lost two to resignations of the whip / expulsions, so the case is arguable.
1) notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliament’s Act 2011 the next election shall be held on x date
2) (some small financial allocation to a spending department for some purpose)
Whip it through the Commons, and it gets a pass in the Lords because its a financial act