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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    That is an ENOURMOUS result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    HYUFD said:

    Copeland declaration Tory GAIN

    Guest Ind 811 Hanson LD 2252 Harrison Tory 13748 Ivanson Ind 116 Lennox Green 515

    Mills UKIP 2025 Troughton Labour 11601

    Theresa May Vote Loser!
    Yes, Mr Senior seems to have gone rather quiet tonight
  • Bye, bye Jeremy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    Trending Con for two decades. Despite the drama of the night it's to be expected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Pulpstar said:

    That is an ENOURMOUS result.

    It's yyyuuuuugeeeee folks.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Mike Smithson on suicide watch. :D
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,859
    If May doesn't engineer an early GE now she is brainfucked.
  • Pulpstar said:

    That is an ENOURMOUS result.

    Trudy shocking!!!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Swing of 6.7%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    So that NHS stunt worked well then...
  • Trending Con for two decades. Despite the drama of the night it's to be expected.

    Give up
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148

    Trending Con for two decades. Despite the drama of the night it's to be expected.

    Trending in general elections, perhaps. Do those tend to continue towards governing parties in by elections? And it really hasn't been that long, demographically speaking, since the 2015 election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    UKIP 10-1 for ages Looooooool
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    Fantastic night for Theresa May, Tories gain Copeland by a clear margin making her the first PM since Thatcher at the height of the Falklands to gain a seat in a by election from an opposition party and almost pip UKIP for second in Stoke but the fact Labour held the latter should keep be enough to still keep Corbyn in place. She now has the renewed mandate she needs to trigger Article 50 next month
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    Trending Con for two decades. Despite the drama of the night it's to be expected.

    So this is bad for Brexit, right? :wink:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    And one more vote for the boundary changes.

    She should be keen on them as good for Con in Cumbria.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,224
    A disastrous result for the Conservatives.

    Jezza could be on his way out now...
  • HYUFD said:

    Fantastic night for Theresa May, Tories gain Copeland by a clear margin making her the first PM since Thatcher at the height of the Falklands to gain a seat in a by election from an opposition party and almost pip UKIP for second in Stoke but the fact Labour held the latter should keep be enough to still keep Corbyn in place. She now has the renewed mandate she needs to trigger Article 50 next month

    Copeland was just a flesh wound :)
  • UKIP only fourth in Copeland...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP 10-1 for ages Looooooool

    I made a lot of money laying that.

    And then I went and spoiled it all by backing labour.

    The 9/4 wasn't value. It was a poor bet.

    ;(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    Fishing said:

    A disastrous result for the Conservatives.

    Jezza could be on his way out now...

    It was the biased media and the fact that jezza has a principled objection to nuclear power....The result just a mere scratch.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited February 2017
    Jeremy Corbyn MP@jeremycorbyn 35s35 seconds ago

    Labour's victory in Stoke is a decisive rejection of UKIP's politics of division. But our message was not enough to win through in Copeland

    Labour listened to 1000s of voters on the doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many, have been let down by the political establishment

    To win power to rebuild and transform Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with the failed political consensus
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Copeland declaration Tory GAIN

    Guest Ind 811 Hanson LD 2252 Harrison Tory 13748 Ivanson Ind 116 Lennox Green 515

    Mills UKIP 2025 Troughton Labour 11601

    Theresa May Vote Loser!
    Yes, Mr Senior seems to have gone rather quiet tonight
    He thinks older Tory voters have dementia - a thoroughly nasty and unpleasant man.
  • As NumberCruncherPolitics points out, last time a govt overturned a 3% majority in similar circumstances was 1878.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Pauly said:

    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?

    News just in, Neil already describing it as historic.
  • Artist said:

    Jeremy Corbyn MP@jeremycorbyn 35s35 seconds ago

    Labour listened to 1000s of voters on the doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many, have been let down by the political establishment

    Reminds me of Ed milibands 5 million conversions...
  • LabourList: Especially worryingly, the margin of victory for the Tory was over 2000 votes – so not even particularly close.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    HYUFD said:

    Fantastic night for Theresa May, Tories gain Copeland by a clear margin and almost pip UKIP for second in Stoke but the fact Labour held the latter should keep be enough to still keep Corbyn in place

    I'm not sure, a whole lot more Labour MPs will realise their seats are in danger. Bolsover, Derby South, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Selly Oak all in danger imo. Heck even Stoke Central.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Pauly said:

    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?

    It's not just you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Dura_Ace said:

    If May doesn't engineer an early GE now she is brainfucked.

    She won't, because Corbyn won Stoke she will keep him on life support while she gets on with Brexit
  • NEW THREAD

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    This is a huge defeat for Labour.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    RobD said:

    Pauly said:

    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?

    News just in, Neil already describing it as historic.
    Quite right, they've fixed it. Just seems odd they changed to that as a stepping-stone... you'd think they'd have prepared splashes for all outcomes, but hey ho.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Fishing said:

    A disastrous result for the Conservatives.

    Jezza could be on his way out now...

    Stoke will keep him alive and even if he does go it will only be for another Corbynista
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,859
    Artist said:

    Jeremy Corbyn MP@jeremycorbyn 35s35 seconds ago

    Labour listened to 1000s of voters on the doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many, have been let down by the political establishment

    He's been an MP since the Constitutions of Clarendon. If he's not part of the political establishment then who is?
  • The members of the Tory4Jezza are going to have to do a lot of hard work over the coming days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Pauly said:

    RobD said:

    Pauly said:

    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?

    News just in, Neil already describing it as historic.
    Quite right, they've fixed it. Just seems odd they changed to that as a stepping-stone... you'd think they'd have prepared splashes for all outcomes, but hey ho.
    Ah, didn't mean to sound super sarcastic there, meant that the news had just broken. You're right that they should have planned for each eventuality.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited February 2017
    Yes, genuinely a good Tory win there. To quite a large extent it's the collapse of the UKIP vote that delivered it - a side-effect of UKIP's concentation on Stoke. Conversely, Labour's slide is partly related to the modest LibDem revival - though it has to be said that the much-heralded Sunderland-style breakthrough didn't happen in either place, and the LibDems really need anothe by-election where they're the main challenger.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    HYUFD said:

    Fantastic night for Theresa May, Tories gain Copeland by a clear margin making her the first PM since Thatcher at the height of the Falklands to gain a seat in a by election from an opposition party and almost pip UKIP for second in Stoke but the fact Labour held the latter should keep be enough to still keep Corbyn in place. She now has the renewed mandate she needs to trigger Article 50 next month

    Copeland was just a flesh wound :)
    Cameron's comparison of Corbyn to one of the Knights in Monty Python is looking apt
  • Pauly said:

    Is it just me or is the BBC's current headline "Mixed by-election fortunes." wholly inappropriate given how unprecedented it is?

    Wholly inadequate for a result that’s being described as historic and a 1st in living memory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Copeland declaration Tory GAIN

    Guest Ind 811 Hanson LD 2252 Harrison Tory 13748 Ivanson Ind 116 Lennox Green 515

    Mills UKIP 2025 Troughton Labour 11601

    Theresa May Vote Loser!
    Yes, Mr Senior seems to have gone rather quiet tonight
    He thinks older Tory voters have dementia - a thoroughly nasty and unpleasant man.
    The danger of reading too much into council by elections
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we';d still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also br a problem for any other Labour leader.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Lovely optimistic email from Momentum in my inbox this morning. The subject of the email was We proved them wrong! ......

    The sceptics wrote us off in Stoke but we proved them wrong. We beat them with our energy, passion and determination.

    The Tories may have taken Copeland, but I’ve seen everything we need to win across the country right here in Stoke these last few weeks.

    If we build on the momentum from this win, we can beat UKIP and the Tories across the country.


    Contribute £10 or £20 to help grow our movement.

    Give £5 Give £10 Give £20

    I’ve been overwhelmed to see hundreds of volunteers coming to Stoke - sharing cars, knocking on doors, calling voters. It was inspiring. Thank you.

    We felt your energy and optimism. And I share your passion to build a better country.

    This is what Momentum is all about; people coming together to change our politics and change our country. That’s why I’m involved.


    If we’re going to keep winning, we need to fund it.

    Give £5 Give £10 Give £20

    This is our moment. Let’s seize it.

    In solidarity,

    Damian Bailey
    Local Momentum activist

This discussion has been closed.