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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Glorious first!
  • ipfreelyipfreely Posts: 29
    Second like Nuttall, but only barely
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Snell more fluent and clear than I'd expected from some of the coverage - really not a bad speech though longer than usual at counts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    And stoke return a donkey with a red rosette again...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/834950226461011968
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Wayhey ! Snell banging on about NHS cuts. One club golfing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    notme said:

    Wayhey ! Snell banging on about NHS cuts. One club golfing.

    Sticking with your earlier prediction about Copeland?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    It doesn't look to me like Lab need to put on an evangelical born-again Leaver act of Ukip are going to continue to be so self-destructive.

    But fpt they should be careful about turning arch-remained too. Polls showing that the majority of Lab voters opted for Remain are of limited use - it is the voters who they have lost that they need to regain, and there is reason to think they are disproportionately Leavers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730
    Dismal Labour result in Stoke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Boston, Lincolnshire is the capital of Brexit = 76% LEAVE on 23rd June.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    isam said:

    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel

    Why would Labour voters switch to a party that is to the right of the Tories?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    RobD said:

    Glorious first!

    A great day, comrades - we sail into history!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    That result is pretty much exactly in line with my expectations.

    The betting market was a great reflection of the real state of play, too.

    Labour a little long throughout, UKIP a bit too short, Con underestimated.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    MyBurningEars said:

    It doesn't look to me like Lab need to put on an evangelical born-again Leaver act of Ukip are going to continue to be so self-destructive.

    But fpt they should be careful about turning arch-remained too. Polls showing that the majority of Lab voters opted for Remain are of limited use - it is the voters who they have lost that they need to regain, and there is reason to think they are disproportionately Leavers.

    Their Brexit positioning should be really easy: Demand that the voters get everything in the Leave manifesto, and cry betrayal if they don't. It's amazing they're managing to bollocks it up so badly.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Look at it this way - if Lab can only get 37% in Stoke Central, what are they likely to get in the UK as a whole?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Jeremy Corbyn has welcomed the result, saying Ukip’s claim to represent the working class has been exposed as a sham. A spokesman for the Labour leader said:

    Labour’s excellent campaign has won a clear victory in an election Ukip and the Tories threw everything at.

    Stoke has rejected Ukip’s politics of division and dishonesty. Ukip’s claim to represent working class people has been exposed as a sham.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    edited February 2017
    3.30 until Copeland declaration ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Snell says Corbyn contributed to his victory
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    MyBurningEars said:

    It doesn't look to me like Lab need to put on an evangelical born-again Leaver act of Ukip are going to continue to be so self-destructive.

    But fpt they should be careful about turning arch-remained too. Polls showing that the majority of Lab voters opted for Remain are of limited use - it is the voters who they have lost that they need to regain, and there is reason to think they are disproportionately Leavers.

    John Curtice suggested the opposite - that it is Labour Remainers that are defecting, including to LD.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited February 2017
    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    MikeL said:

    Look at it this way - if Lab can only get 37% in Stoke Central, what are they likely to get in the UK as a whole?

    Tristam hunt never got much more than that. It was his predecessor where they used to weigh the votes with 60-70% of the vote.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Nuttall has left the building don’t think he spoke once to camera the whole time he was there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    edited February 2017
    Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the governing party has seen their share of the vote rise - John Curtice
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)

    Yep - agree with that. The only issue is the timing now.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pong said:

    That result is pretty much exactly in line with my expectations.

    The betting market was a great reflection of the real state of play, too.

    Tough to square the Con/UKIP prices with an efficient market hypothesis!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Berwick & East Lothian 1978, Beaconsfield 1982, Beckenham 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Glenrothes 2008, Glasgow North East 2009

    I make it atleast 7 previous ones??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Tory vote up! :D
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel

    Why would Labour voters switch to a party that is to the right of the Tories?

    I am well past worrying whether things are right or left, it seems futile to have to live up to some definition of yourself.

    They complain that no one looks out for them, their lives are shit and their community has been wrecked, then vote in the same party that have taken them for granted for 60 odd years. I truly despair

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    RobD said:

    Tory vote up! :D

    Surgitis :o !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
    It is not being destroyed electorally though is it, Labour has just held off the challenge from UKIP in Stoke. Even if he loses Copeland his supporters will still say it was close enough a la Cat Smith and the more than 60% of Labour members who re elected him just a few months ago will celebrate his defeat of the 'Far Right' UKIP
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    But! But! But! LOOK AT THE COUNCIL RESULTS!!!

    So to 'the polls are wrong' we can now add 'the Stoke electorate'.

    Given the circumstances, reasonable result for Labour, disappointing for UKIP & the Tories will be pretty satisfied.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Berwick & East Lothian 1978, Beaconsfield 1982, Beckenham 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Glenrothes 2008, Glasgow North East 2009

    I make it atleast 7 previous ones??
    Apologies - he said the 6th by-election in ENGLAND since 1970.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Berwick & East Lothian 1978, Beaconsfield 1982, Beckenham 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Glenrothes 2008, Glasgow North East 2009

    I make it atleast 7 previous ones??
    He said England. :smile:
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Without campaigning hard as well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/834953118462980096
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    HYUFD said:

    Snell says Corbyn contributed to his victory


    AGENT Snell - tone it down! We told you you went too far on Twitter!

    @Tories4Corbyn.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/834953118462980096

    I don't think UKIP would win there either.

    Big Tory by-election win if it happened.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Berwick & East Lothian 1978, Beaconsfield 1982, Beckenham 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Glenrothes 2008, Glasgow North East 2009

    I make it atleast 7 previous ones??
    Apologies - he said the 6th by-election in ENGLAND since 1970.
    Oops!

    Now to find the other 2 along with Beaconsfield, Beckenham and Eddisbury then....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/daviddpaxton/status/834948724673642498
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    Swingback does not generally happen when here has not been a swing away to begin with!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    justin124 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    Swingback does not generally happen when here has not been a swing away to begin with!
    Well, there were some polls that had Labour ahead last year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/daviddpaxton/status/834948724673642498

    Scary thing is he is more likely to get a go in the shadow cabinet before 2020.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Adam PayneVerified account‏@adampayne26 1m1 minute ago
    More
    Copeland result imminent
    Translate from German
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
    It is not being destroyed electorally though is it, Labour has just held off the challenge from UKIP in Stoke. Even if he loses Copeland his supporters will still say it was close enough a la Cat Smith and the more than 60% of Labour members who re elected him just a few months ago will celebrate his defeat of the 'Far Right' UKIP

    Some will, a lot won't. The Corbyn coalition is breaking apart.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Can I just say Labour Leave and Leave.EU deserved to horsewhipped for producing those 'polls' showing UKIP winning Stoke.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/daviddpaxton/status/834948724673642498

    :lol: - give it a week or two and it will probably be true.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/834949839741927427
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
    And he's become so utterly defensive. He doesn't seem to know what he's leading the party for. I think his supporters want him to be Bernie Sanders but he isn't and he doesn't want to be. The next Labour crisis is coming: Corbyn's departure and his replacement with a compromise leader who nobody really likes. Although to be fair, it doesn't really matter who the next leader is - he or she will be a caretaker leader while the party regroups and tries to undo a bit of the huge damage of the last two years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    Snell says Corbyn contributed to his victory


    AGENT Snell - tone it down! We told you you went too far on Twitter!

    @Tories4Corbyn.....
    Certainly most Tories will not be too unhappy with Snell's win
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Copeland mayor saying likely conservative gain and he is blaming Corbyn
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Andrew Neil's habit of not letting interviewees getting a whole sentence out without a hostile intervention is really irritating - even made me feel sorry for the UKIP guy.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SouthamObserver said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)

    Yep - agree with that. The only issue is the timing now.

    I think, even if he isn't forced, he will go voluntarily after a drubbing in the May elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    But! But! But! LOOK AT THE COUNCIL RESULTS!!!

    So to 'the polls are wrong' we can now add 'the Stoke electorate'.

    Given the circumstances, reasonable result for Labour, disappointing for UKIP & the Tories will be pretty satisfied.
    Theresa May toxic vote loser? :smiley:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Dadge said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
    And he's become so utterly defensive. He doesn't seem to know what he's leading the party for. I think his supporters want him to be Bernie Sanders but he isn't and he doesn't want to be. The next Labour crisis is coming: Corbyn's departure and his replacement with a compromise leader who nobody really likes. Although to be fair, it doesn't really matter who the next leader is - he or she will be a caretaker leader while the party regroups and tries to undo a bit of the huge damage of the last two years.
    Yup. Almost the worst thing about him is how lazy and low-energy he is. Take his supposed "relaunch": he did a day of interviews, got pissed off at the media's coverage, and then gave up and went back into hibernation. As crap as Miliband was, atleast he always kept trying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    Snell says Corbyn contributed to his victory


    AGENT Snell - tone it down! We told you you went too far on Twitter!

    @Tories4Corbyn.....
    Certainly most Tories will not be too unhappy with Snell's win
    I bet they are quaking in their boots at such a Titan entering the HoC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Nuttall says UKIP has halved Labour's majority, he is not going anywhere and UKIP's time will come
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Curtice:

    Stoke is only the 6th by-election since 1970 where Govt vote share has risen.

    Berwick & East Lothian 1978, Beaconsfield 1982, Beckenham 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Glenrothes 2008, Glasgow North East 2009

    I make it atleast 7 previous ones??
    Apologies - he said the 6th by-election in ENGLAND since 1970.
    Oops!

    Now to find the other 2 along with Beaconsfield, Beckenham and Eddisbury then....
    Pages 38-45 if you want to go through them :smile:

    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7529#fullreport
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Danny565 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)

    Yep - agree with that. The only issue is the timing now.

    I think, even if he isn't forced, he will go voluntarily after a drubbing in the May elections.

    I am still betting on next year.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    NickPalmer said:

    Andrew Neil's habit of not letting interviewees getting a whole sentence out without a hostile intervention is really irritating - even made me feel sorry for the UKIP guy.

    AN has always been in love with himself !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh, if it's even a 2% swing away from Lab in Stoke, then it really is all over in Copeland.

    Stick a fork in Corbyn!

    Even if he loses Copeland, Stoke has saved his bacon, Labour will continue as a useless opposition who May will easily beat but with this result and UKIP having completely failed to make an inroad into the Labour heartlands they will continue as the main party of opposition regardless
    Disagree. Labour members don't want the party to be destroyed electorally.

    In the first part of 2016, Corbyn's results in elections were not as bad as the media spin presented. Now, they are as bad as they're being presented. And, for the past 6 months, he's had barely a peep out of the PLP, to stop him from putting forward his message, yet he's still not getting anywhere. It's over.

    (For what it's worth, I think the Virgin Trains fiasco finished him off -- it ruined the one USP he had, that he was honest and genuine.)
    It is not being destroyed electorally though is it, Labour has just held off the challenge from UKIP in Stoke. Even if he loses Copeland his supporters will still say it was close enough a la Cat Smith and the more than 60% of Labour members who re elected him just a few months ago will celebrate his defeat of the 'Far Right' UKIP

    Some will, a lot won't. The Corbyn coalition is breaking apart.

    Doesn't look like it on the evidence so far, Labour moderates needed Corbyn to lose both Stoke and Copeland to have a real chance of toppling him, he can survive losing Copeland having held Stoke
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited February 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel

    Why would Labour voters switch to a party that is to the right of the Tories?

    Thought experiment. It is the 1980s again.

    Switch the following party labels.

    Labour => Tories

    UKIP => SDP

    Tories => Labour

    What would all the commentators say based on the Stoke result?

    Split left-wing lets Tories through on barely one third of the vote in what is clearly a left-leaning seat.

    If you buy the idea that Ukip is the right-winger's right-wing party, would you say Stoke was a firmly right-wing seat where a split on the right has let the Labour party sneak through?

    I'm not buying that. There is some truth in working-class kipper potential and in Ukip being more subtle to pin down on the political spectrum given its special ability for incoherence (with its trump card super-power of clearly never having to put any of its proposals into practice and seeing how well they work once in power, which adds enviable flexibility to the pledges they can make).

    Thing is, tapping into this potential working-class support and making a winning coalition out of it, will take more than a scouse accent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    Snell says Corbyn contributed to his victory


    AGENT Snell - tone it down! We told you you went too far on Twitter!

    @Tories4Corbyn.....
    Certainly most Tories will not be too unhappy with Snell's win
    I bet they are quaking in their boots at such a Titan entering the HoC.
    Certainly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    But! But! But! LOOK AT THE COUNCIL RESULTS!!!

    So to 'the polls are wrong' we can now add 'the Stoke electorate'.

    Given the circumstances, reasonable result for Labour, disappointing for UKIP & the Tories will be pretty satisfied.
    https://twitter.com/rhodri_jones/status/834954620950687744
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Copeland declaration in 5 minutes
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    justin124 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Stoke 2% swing Lab to Con, add 4% swingback for the next GE and that makes for a 6% swing Lab to Con, eg Con 43% Lab 24%. Seems about right.

    Swingback does not generally happen when here has not been a swing away to begin with!
    Maybe you're right. IIUC there wasn't much in the early Blair years - do you get the same pattern going back further?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    BBC still saying Copeland very close
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    https://twitter.com/Redpeter99/status/834957139751931904
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Con + UKIP = 49.1%. Make of that what you will.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Bless the BBC for keeping the "it's close" charade going a bit longer.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    HYUFD said:

    Nuttall says UKIP has halved Labour's majority, he is not going anywhere and UKIP's time will come

    "Tomorrow belongs to me"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    https://twitter.com/pixel8foto/status/834955617634770945
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    MyBurningEars said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel

    Why would Labour voters switch to a party that is to the right of the Tories?

    Thought experiment. It is the 1980s again.

    Switch the following party labels.

    Labour => Tories

    UKIP => SDP

    Tories => Labour

    What would all the commentators say based on the Stoke result?

    Split left-wing lets Tories through on barely one third of the vote in what is clearly a left-leaning seat.

    If you buy the idea that Ukip is the right-winger's right-wing party, would you say Stoke was a firmly right-wing seat where a split on the right has let the Labour party sneak through?

    I'm not buying that. There is some truth in working-class kipper potential and in Ukip being more subtle to pin down on the political spectrum given its special ability for incoherence (with its trump card super-power of clearly never having to put any of its proposals into practice and seeing how well they work once in power, which adds enviable flexibility to the pledges they can make).

    Thing is, tapping into this potential working-class support and making a winning coalition out of it, will take more than a scouse accent.

    UKIP needs a leadership and a membership who are credibly left wing on certain touchstone issues - the NHS, trade unions, housing etc. What Kate Hoey represents in terms of belief system. But the vast majority of the membership are ex-Tories, like Farage, Nuttall, Evans and so on.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Stoke has delivered a message about Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/781551057029726208
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    edited February 2017
    NeilVW said:

    Con + UKIP = 49.1%. Make of that what you will.

    10-15 years ago the right wing vote was never more than 25% in that constituency.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    Copeland result imminent.

    Candidates on stage
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834957932949356544
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SouthamObserver said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    Nothing will ever change, we are stuck forever. Labour really couldn't have put out a worse candidate, he insulted the voters but they still voted for him.

    I am beginning to wish we had voted Remain! At least we would have still had light at the end of the tunnel

    Why would Labour voters switch to a party that is to the right of the Tories?

    Thought experiment. It is the 1980s again.

    Switch the following party labels.

    Labour => Tories

    UKIP => SDP

    Tories => Labour

    What would all the commentators say based on the Stoke result?

    Split left-wing lets Tories through on barely one third of the vote in what is clearly a left-leaning seat.

    If you buy the idea that Ukip is the right-winger's right-wing party, would you say Stoke was a firmly right-wing seat where a split on the right has let the Labour party sneak through?

    I'm not buying that. There is some truth in working-class kipper potential and in Ukip being more subtle to pin down on the political spectrum given its special ability for incoherence (with its trump card super-power of clearly never having to put any of its proposals into practice and seeing how well they work once in power, which adds enviable flexibility to the pledges they can make).

    Thing is, tapping into this potential working-class support and making a winning coalition out of it, will take more than a scouse accent.

    UKIP needs a leadership and a membership who are credibly left wing on certain touchstone issues - the NHS, trade unions, housing etc. What Kate Hoey represents in terms of belief system. But the vast majority of the membership are ex-Tories, like Farage, Nuttall, Evans and so on.

    It's often forgotten that the SNP only finally overhauled Labour once they matched/exceeded them on economic redistribution and public services (rhetorically at least). Just wrapping yourself up in the flag is not enough on its own to pick up "white working class" voters, you need to offer them something that actually improves their lot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,375
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834958494784761856
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834958494784761856

    :D

    Just rejoice at that news
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834958494784761856

    After being wrong all night, could he be for once be right?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Oh dear.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stick. A. Fork. In. Corbyn.

    Goodnight!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Copeland declaration Tory GAIN

    Guest Ind 811 Hanson LD 2252 Harrison Tory 13748 Ivanson Ind 116 Lennox Green 515

    Mills UKIP 2025 Troughton Labour 11601
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    https://twitter.com/sueperkins/status/834776312170573824
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Shocking result for Labour.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Yes !!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    *pops champers*
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Tories win Copeland by over 2,000 votes
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,552
    edited February 2017
    Close my arse...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017
    Blimey, the loss of Copeland will completely overshadow Labour’s Stoke Central hold. #Major.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/834958621385580544
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Artist said:

    Shocking result for Labour.

    Eating babies did not work
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    HYUFD said:

    Copeland declaration Tory GAIN

    Guest Ind 811 Hanson LD 2252 Harrison Tory 13748 Ivanson Ind 116 Lennox Green 515

    Mills UKIP 2025 Troughton Labour 11601

    Theresa May Vote Loser!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Artist said:

    Shocking result for Labour.

    Eating babies did not work
    Or perhaps it did. *evil laugh* ... *dabs mouth clean*
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834959124941123584
This discussion has been closed.