Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight sees biggest round of local by-elections so far this y

2

Comments

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    Floater said:

    tyson said:

    Nuttall misses Stoke hustings as he prioritises being in Brussels! You couldn't make it up...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/16/ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-condemned-for-failing-to-attend-hustings

    As bad as Nuttall is, you couldn't really make up the caricature of Jeremy Corbyn and his pathetic cheerleaders that are collectively consigning progressive politics to the dustbin.
    Harsh but very, very fair.
    Corbyn is simply giving the Tories a false sense of security until Len pulls the plug on the experiment in 2018
    The result of GE 2020 will depend on whether Theresa May obtains an acceptable divorce from the EU.. If she does she will walk back into power.
    The signs are not positive on the first front.
    May will probably win anyway though.
    I am more optimistic - we have a lot going for us
    It just takes one country to veto a deal
    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    The exit deal is QMV - ie how much we pay the EU and what form the transition takes. Any future FTA requires unanimity, as for instance CETA was.
  • Options

    Having seen and listened to Trump's press conference, I cannot believe that people see a confident, in control, Chief executive rather than an attention-seeking narcissist in denial about anything that contradicts his desires/fantasies

    Much like the metropolitan left elite
  • Options

    It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanmity. Most experts in EU law and politics thinks that the latter will apply.

    A trade deal is a very major detail and certainly is outside the scope of the strict remit of Article 50.
    Not necessarily - Article 50 says "In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union "

    The framework for our future relationship is a trade deal, n'est-ce pas?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    Freggles said:

    chestnut said:

    Freggles said:

    Floater said:

    tyson said:

    Nuttall misses Stoke hustings as he prioritises being in Brussels! You couldn't make it up...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/16/ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-condemned-for-failing-to-attend-hustings

    As bad as Nuttall is, you couldn't really make up the caricature of Jeremy Corbyn and his pathetic cheerleaders that are collectively consigning progressive politics to the dustbin.
    Harsh but very, very fair.
    Corbyn is simply giving the Tories a false sense of security until Len pulls the plug on the experiment in 2018
    The result of GE 2020 will depend on whether Theresa May obtains an acceptable divorce from the EU.. If she does she will walk back into power.
    The importance of the EU settlement is entirely related to the quality of the other settlements with the 88% of the global economy that aren't in a post Brexit EU.

    If May has deals settled/firmly pipelined with the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the public will happily tolerate the loss of Romania and Latvia etc.
    You forgot India.... Oh, they will of course want easier access to visas for their citizens in return for better economic links.
    Not at all. There is a very discernible change in tone from the EU post Trump and since May's outline.

    Put this in perspective.

    We are a top three global export destination for the the Scandis and Irish.
    We are a top three global export destination for the major countries in NW Europe.
    We are a top five global export destination for the countries in the Med.

    We are the continent's bankers.

    We are the biggest export destination in Europe for Canada, Australia, New Zealand....and India. We are top three with the US, Japan and South Korea.

    These facts are gradually sinking in across Europe.
    It's a rare occurrence indeed for the EU to have such an important partner so completely over a barrel.
    We manage to manufacture so little of our own that we have to import much of what we want to buy . It is why our balance of payments is so much in the red .
    Most of our trade deficit can be attributed to energy costs- which are primarily from the non EU Norway - or from cheap imported production from places like China and Bangladesh.

    It's worth remembering that pre-EU expansion, the UK's trade was in balance.
    You mean when we mined our own coal , built our own ships , made our own Steel etc .
  • Options

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    The strict remit of A50 is pretty clear and very wide ranging: it covers everything to do with the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

    "the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
    'Why do the SNP want to take powers from Westminster only to hand them over to Brussels' gets quite a lot of applause on QT from Glasgow
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Having seen and listened to Trump's press conference, I cannot believe that people see a confident, in control, Chief executive rather than an attention-seeking narcissist in denial about anything that contradicts his desires/fantasies

    People love anybody railing against MSM.
    Correction, some frothymouthed tinfoilhatters do!

    Trump is not attacking the "MSM" he is attacking the concept of objective truth. Delusion can only take you so far.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Financial Times reports President Trump's choice for national security adviser retired vice admiral Robert Harward has turned down the offer
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @realDonaldTrump: We need a President who isn't a laughing stock to the entire World. We need a truly great leader, a genius at strategy and winning. Respect!
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    You mean when we mined our own coal , built our own ships , made our own Steel etc .

    More that we manufactured our own clothing, built our own electronics etc.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,118

    kle4 said:

    Having seen and listened to Trump's press conference, I cannot believe that people see a confident, in control, Chief executive rather than an attention-seeking narcissist in denial about anything that contradicts his desires/fantasies

    People love anybody railing against MSM.
    Correction, some frothymouthed tinfoilhatters do!

    Trump is not attacking the "MSM" he is attacking the concept of objective truth. Delusion can only take you so far.
    You'd think so. It will carry him a little way further at least, and some will love it because of his targets. But as far as I see it the only 'positive' is that he does make such events entertaining and amusing, until you start thinking about things.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Scott_P said:

    @realDonaldTrump: We need a President who isn't a laughing stock to the entire World. We need a truly great leader, a genius at strategy and winning. Respect!

    To be fair, no one thought he would win :smiley:
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Having seen and listened to Trump's press conference, I cannot believe that people see a confident, in control, Chief executive rather than an attention-seeking narcissist in denial about anything that contradicts his desires/fantasies

    People are projecting their own biases. Simple.
  • Options

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    The strict remit of A50 is pretty clear and very wide ranging: it covers everything to do with the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

    "the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."
    Yes, but CETA was a trade deal: QMV applies, therefore. Except it didn't. As I said, it only requires one minor detail to flip it into requiring unanimity. It's near-certain that we'll get tripped up by that, although I agree that the UK should be making every possible effort to sneak in under Article 50 only.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,310


    "the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union."

    'Taking account of' to me implies an externality. If there is unanimous support for a comprehensive FTA then the A50 process should take account of that fact, but if there isn't then the A50 process cannot create it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,310
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @realDonaldTrump: We need a President who isn't a laughing stock to the entire World. We need a truly great leader, a genius at strategy and winning. Respect!

    To be fair, no one thought he would win :smiley:
    Cough... :smiley:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @realDonaldTrump: We need a President who isn't a laughing stock to the entire World. We need a truly great leader, a genius at strategy and winning. Respect!

    To be fair, no one thought he would win :smiley:
    Cough... :smiley:
    With some notable exceptions ;)
  • Options

    It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanmity. Most experts in EU law and politics thinks that the latter will apply.

    A trade deal is a very major detail and certainly is outside the scope of the strict remit of Article 50.
    Not necessarily - Article 50 says "In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union "

    The framework for our future relationship is a trade deal, n'est-ce pas?
    The idea the EU are going to make us suffer is nonsense. Harder heads will realise they have a legal duty to agree the framework and obstructing it would see them risk billions in damages
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 43s43 seconds ago

    Scottish independence poll:
    Yes: 44% (+1)
    No: 51% (-)
    (via Panelbase / 07 - 13 Feb)
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 31s31 seconds ago

    Labour HOLD Failsworth East (Oldham).
    0 replies 3 retweets 4 likes
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scottish local election voting intention: SNP: 47% CON: 26% LAB: 14% LDEM: 5% GRN: 4% UKIP: 3% (via Panelbase / 07 - 13 Feb)
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    Having seen and listened to Trump's press conference, I cannot believe that people see a confident, in control, Chief executive rather than an attention-seeking narcissist in denial about anything that contradicts his desires/fantasies

    People love anybody railing against MSM.
    I enjoy seeing them get the odd kicking myself, but I can still see Trump's issues. It is almost as bad as when Comical Ali stood in Baghdad proclaiming that there were no foreign tanks in Iraq with a column of them rolling along just behind him
  • Options
    That Trump presser was really something else. He was clearly enjoying himself, but I think the lack of respect that the journos had for him rattled him severely. I don't know whether to stock up on popcorn or cans of beans for the nuclear fallout shelter,
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017

    The idea the EU are going to make us suffer is nonsense. Harder heads will realise they have a legal duty to agree the framework and obstructing it would see them risk billions in damages

    I don't share your confidence. Yes, of course, harder heads will realise that, and, more importantly, they'll realise that a bad deal or no deal would damage the EU27 as much as us. If we were negotiating only with Michael Barnier and he had full executive power, I'd be very confident. We'd have a good laugh at his ludicrous £60bn demand, he'd have a good laugh at our claim that we are due 20% of all EU assets, and then we'd get down to some sensible negotiation in order to protect the economies on both sides.

    Unfortunately, it looks as though, as well as hard heads, some distinctly soft heads will have a veto on the deal. That's why I reckon there's a 10% to 20% chance of it collapsing in chaos. I might be over-optimistic on that.
  • Options

    That Trump presser was really something else. He was clearly enjoying himself, but I think the lack of respect that the journos had for him rattled him severely. I don't know whether to stock up on popcorn or cans of beans for the nuclear fallout shelter,

    We need them once a week - great entertainment
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Failsworth East / Oldham:

    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
    AndyJS said:

    Failsworth East / Oldham:

    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    UKIP surge!
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,928

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051
    Lib Dems 1.1% in Failsworth. No remoaner surge there.
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Huh. I quite like being a Camerooney Remainer. I dont like any of the parties now. Labour are farcical, Ukip are fruitcakes, Farron has dragged the Lib Dems left (I'd have been tempted by Clegg) and too many of the Tories are freaks and interchangeable with Ukip and remind me of all the bad things from 1992-1997.

    What it does do is take the emotion out of betting and make it easier to be sure my decisions are rational, so I suppose every cloud has a silver lining.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2017

    East Staffs Burton is LD Hold vote share up to 52%

    Interesting result. The Burton parliamentary constituency is very weak for the LDs, they only polled 2.5% in 2015.
  • Options
    rkrkrk said:

    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.

    Yes, indeed.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
    It is not a real issue. The EU27 will act as one, whether formally or by QMV in law, as they believe in solidarity and value consensus.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    chestnut said:

    Is Mike Smithson the most famous man in Britain???? His tweets are being linked to on Stoke City's football forum.

    Who can forget that time he tweeted something that moved sterling?

    From Liverpool to City?
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,928

    rkrkrk said:

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
    It is not a real issue. The EU27 will act as one, whether formally or by QMV in law, as they believe in solidarity and value consensus.
    Not sure if that's sarcasm...
    The interests of Malta, Poland and France will be very different in this.
    And the EU parliament is a bit of a loose cannon... Who knows how they will vote!?
  • Options
    Greens take seat of UKiP
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051
    Green gain in Glos! Didn't see that one!
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,928
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Financial Times reports President Trump's choice for national security adviser retired vice admiral Robert Harward has turned down the offer

    Wonder why he turned it down...

    Also - DJT will not be happy to be rejected...
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    rkrkrk said:

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
    Clarity is kryptonite to the EU, to be avoided wherever possible!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051
    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
    It is not a real issue. The EU27 will act as one, whether formally or by QMV in law, as they believe in solidarity and value consensus.
    Not sure if that's sarcasm...
    The interests of Malta, Poland and France will be very different in this.
    And the EU parliament is a bit of a loose cannon... Who knows how they will vote!?
    Their interests will be different, but they will hammer out a common position in advance and negotiate as one. It is what a Union does.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    Qualifies for Champions League
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2017
    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
  • Options

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The Article 50 deal is QMV.

    Whether the deal will be decided by QMV or not is a crucial question, perhaps the most crucial question facing the UK.

    You are right that, strictly speaking according to the Lisbon Treaty, the Article 50 exit deal is subject to QMV, though it's also subject to approval by the European Parliament. However, I'm not sure that's sufficient. It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanimity. Remember that our EU friends claim that the exit deal is separate from the post-exit deal. That is nonsense, of course, but most experts in EU law and politics thinks that unanimity will apply to the combination.
    Frankly it's amazing that there isn't absolute clarity on this.
    It is not a real issue. The EU27 will act as one, whether formally or by QMV in law, as they believe in solidarity and value consensus.
    Not sure if that's sarcasm...
    The interests of Malta, Poland and France will be very different in this.
    And the EU parliament is a bit of a loose cannon... Who knows how they will vote!?
    Their interests will be different, but they will hammer out a common position in advance and negotiate as one. It is what a Union does.
    Not this one - it will be all over the place - even Juncker's said each Country would be against each other
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanmity. Most experts in EU law and politics thinks that the latter will apply.

    A trade deal is a very major detail and certainly is outside the scope of the strict remit of Article 50.
    Not necessarily - Article 50 says "In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union "

    The framework for our future relationship is a trade deal, n'est-ce pas?
    The idea the EU are going to make us suffer is nonsense. Harder heads will realise they have a legal duty to agree the framework and obstructing it would see them risk billions in damages
    And who's going to enforce these damages? Oh yes the ECJ who we don't want to have anything to do with. The 27 are not going to do us any favours whatsoever and anyone who thinks they are is a rabid Kipper or completely taken leave of their senses.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017

    Their interests will be different, but they will hammer out a common position in advance and negotiate as one. It is what a Union does.

    They'll try to do that, certainly. The danger is that they'll enter the negotiations with an impossible shopping-list of mutually contradictory red lines, and that when (inevitably) one or more of those red lines gets crossed in the proposed deal, one or more players will veto it.

    Edit: The obverse of this is of course why it would be such an unmitigated disaster to have the UK parliament trying to impose conditions on the negotiation.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Their interests will be different, but they will hammer out a common position in advance and negotiate as one. It is what a Union does.

    They'll try to do that, certainly. The danger is that they'll enter the negotiations with an impossible shopping-list of mutually contradictory red lines.
    Nah. The redlines are fairly clear. Brexit means Brexit after all. No tariffs on manufactured goods, but apart from that zilch needs agreeing.
  • Options
    Chris_A said:

    It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanmity. Most experts in EU law and politics thinks that the latter will apply.

    A trade deal is a very major detail and certainly is outside the scope of the strict remit of Article 50.
    Not necessarily - Article 50 says "In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union "

    The framework for our future relationship is a trade deal, n'est-ce pas?
    The idea the EU are going to make us suffer is nonsense. Harder heads will realise they have a legal duty to agree the framework and obstructing it would see them risk billions in damages
    And who's going to enforce these damages? Oh yes the ECJ who we don't want to have anything to do with. The 27 are not going to do us any favours whatsoever and anyone who thinks they are is a rabid Kipper or completely taken leave of their senses.
    I am not a kipper of any sort but a deal will be made - those who say not are mainly those that want the deal to fail in some vain hope we may cling on to the Brussels elite. If the EU are seen to be the reason for any failure UK opinion will harden and we will just tell them to get lost
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238

    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    My Green voting sister will be pleased with the Lydbrook result
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017

    Their interests will be different, but they will hammer out a common position in advance and negotiate as one. It is what a Union does.

    They'll try to do that, certainly. The danger is that they'll enter the negotiations with an impossible shopping-list of mutually contradictory red lines.
    Nah. The redlines are fairly clear. Brexit means Brexit after all. No tariffs on manufactured goods, but apart from that zilch needs agreeing.
    Off the top of my head: Freedom of movement, fisheries, passporting/equivalence, airline regulation, pharmaceutical regulation, Gibraltar, customs procedures, Ireland, exit fees, on-going fees, WTO quotas, jurisdiction of the ECJ. There are bound to be lots, lots more.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    My Green voting sister will be pleased with the Lydbrook result
    There are a lot of Green supporters in that part of the world, particularly Stroud.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    My Green voting sister will be pleased with the Lydbrook result
    There are a lot of Green supporters in that part of the world, particularly Stroud.
    Yes, quite a lot of hippies getting back in touch with nature around there
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
  • Options
    https://action.donaldjtrump.com/mainstream-media-accountability-survey/

    Here's something for fans of non-leading polling questions
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,950
    I'm watching The Donald Show! :open_mouth:
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,941
    From their pictures they seem to be using BNP rosettes.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Bollington to the lot of you.

    http://bollingtonfirst.co.uk/

    Make of it what you will.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    HYUFD/slade - Thanks.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,950
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:
    "Rise up"? That sounds like the language of someone trying to incite a civil war? :open_mouth:
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mr spyn,Thanks.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238

    HYUFD/slade - Thanks.

    That's alright

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,238
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    "Rise up"? That sounds like the language of someone trying to incite a civil war? :open_mouth:
    Or piggyback off the LDs!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,100
    HYUFD said:
    The ultimate digger
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited February 2017
    Cable conveniently forgetting that German labour laws make hiring and firing difficult. Trying to spin that Brexit is to blame for possible closure of Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port, when there are upcoming elections in Germany and France. How far Cable's claims re exchange rates are accurate is a moot point, given that present x change rate is within 3 cents of the rate when St Vincent saved all those jobs. Always possible that JLR could make use of the site.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-16/cable-says-vauxhall-could-be-brexit-major-casualty/
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051
    edited February 2017

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name. Are you referring to Davina?!
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name.
    Then I apologise.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name.
    Then I apologise.
    No problem.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name. Are you referring to Davina?!
    No,I think he was called compouter,also a Everton fan.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited February 2017
    LDs on the slide.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/832383000696520704

    Residents win - another tweet via Election Data implies the candidate was opposed to housing developments in the area.

    What I haven't seen is any numerical totals on this or other results.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name. Are you referring to Davina?!
    No,I think he was called compouter,also a Everton fan.
    There are a few of us tbf.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The ultimate digger
    I think "Leave" would have won 70-30 if Blair had lead the remain campaign.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name. Are you referring to Davina?!
    No,I think he was called compouter,also a Everton fan.
    There are a few of us tbf.
    I know ;-) on the rise under koeman,see if you can keep him from the clutches of Barca ;-)
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8)

    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    My Green voting sister will be pleased with the Lydbrook result
    Ukip to green swing?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,310
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The ultimate digger
    I think "Leave" would have won 70-30 if Blair had lead the remain campaign.
    On the other hand Blair could have won a referendum on joining the Euro if he'd overruled Brown. If Brown had resigned then so much the better.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Well damn me - move off Twitter for a minute, then up come the figures.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/832385538342715397/photo/1
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,051

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP's big problem is that us remainers love nothing better than getting out on a Thursday night and heading down to the polling booth in the pouring rain to tick a Lib Dem box for council by-elections.

    You may have your Brexit, but Thursday nights are ours :}

    Bit like being on the Europa League I suppose...Thursday nights and nobody cares or tries to hard.
    But if your team wins it's a major trophy.
    William,with a name like that,I am guessing you are a Everton fan ?
    Correct, and bonus points for the William!
    I heard he didn't like the dixie bit ;-)
    Some dispute about that. His family didn't, but that may be a reaction to the implication he had some black ancestry. Nevertheless the greatest English goal scorer of all time. Died of a heart attack at Goodison during a Derby game. What a way to go!
    Have we chatted before mr dean,you under a different name on here ? We both had a love of McCall ;-)
    No, sorry. Only just started posting, and only under one name. Are you referring to Davina?!
    No,I think he was called compouter,also a Everton fan.
    There are a few of us tbf.
    I know ;-) on the rise under koeman,see if you can keep him from the clutches of Barca ;-)
    Tis possible. A change at the top can work wonders. Lesson for Labour? Anyway off to sleep, nice talking to you. COYB!!!1
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    I am more of a Bollinger First man myself..
  • Options
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/16/jk-rowling-donald-trump-press-conference-scariest-thing-ever/

    Think she just wants the US to burn her books to increase future demand :)

    or possibly still winding up poor old fake-news piers
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited February 2017
    Most disappointed that Trump has dropped his debate catchphrase.... WRRRRRRONNGGGGG ...must catchier than "that's a beauty" and alike.
  • Options
    HYUFD

    some thoughts you might not like on Scottish QT and English by-elections

    My observation would be on the basis of this politically tuned in audience in Glasgow then Scotland is on its way to indy ref 2.

    A\nd on the basis of the English local by elections then Tory strength in the polls is not being reflected on the ground. Are they really dead certs to win in Cumbria next week?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,090

    Chris_A said:

    It only requires one minor detail for fall outside the strict remit of Article 50 (and who knows what that is?) for the whole thing to fall back on to EU27 + European Parliament unanmity. Most experts in EU law and politics thinks that the latter will apply.

    A trade deal is a very major detail and certainly is outside the scope of the strict remit of Article 50.
    Not necessarily - Article 50 says "In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union "

    The framework for our future relationship is a trade deal, n'est-ce pas?
    The idea the EU are going to make us suffer is nonsense. Harder heads will realise they have a legal duty to agree the framework and obstructing it would see them risk billions in damages
    And who's going to enforce these damages? Oh yes the ECJ who we don't want to have anything to do with. The 27 are not going to do us any favours whatsoever and anyone who thinks they are is a rabid Kipper or completely taken leave of their senses.
    I am not a kipper of any sort but a deal will be made - those who say not are mainly those that want the deal to fail in some vain hope we may cling on to the Brussels elite. If the EU are seen to be the reason for any failure UK opinion will harden and we will just tell them to get lost
    What does telling the EU to "get lost" look like in policy terms?
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,320
    Source= RT, that well known completely unbiased in anyway Russian propaganda channel....
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    dr_spyn said:

    Well damn me - move off Twitter for a minute, then up come the figures.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/832385538342715397/photo/1

    not often you see "Green gain from UKIP"
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    Source= RT, that well known completely unbiased in anyway Russian propaganda channel....
    The original source is actually London based: http://brandfinance.com/news/press-releases/aeroflot-trumps-americas-airline-brands/

    However, given the middling to poor ratings Aeroflot gets on Skytrax for example, I doubt outside its home market the Aeroflot brand has much equity....
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

    Just look at Trump's approval rating vs all the other Presidents. It is diabolical.

    This is supposed to be the "honeymoon" period.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The ultimate digger
    I think "Leave" would have won 70-30 if Blair had lead the remain campaign.
    But not if the referendum had been in 2005.
This discussion has been closed.