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BigRich

first

AndyJS

FPT:

There is zero chance of turnout dropping below 10% in Stoke Central. It'll almost certainly be around 30-35%.

TudorRose

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

Essexit

Lib Dems gain 3, Ukip lose 8...to put the Lib Dems level with Ukip.

Essexit

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

They know it's red rosette on a donkey territory. Why divert energy from Copeland where they have a real shot at humiliating Labour?

TudorRose

Essexit said:

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

They know it's red rosette on a donkey territory. Why divert energy from Copeland where they have a real shot at humiliating Labour?

Of course the great irony would be if the 'LibDem surge' lets UKIP win in Stoke and helps the Tories win in Copeland.

justin124

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

SquareRoot

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

Richard_Tyndall

Not surprising. I can only see this trend continuing as we move through the Article 50 process. I would expect another drop for UKIP when we actually activate Article 50 and by the time we leave the EU I am not sure UKIP will be anything other than a fringe grouping with a few percent of the vote. It wold be interesting perhaps to ask what their floor is. I would have thought maybe 4-5%.

justin124

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

It is not a matter of what I would say but of the data that is actually in the tables! Why not check for yourself - if you really are keen to ascertain the truth?

justin124

The poll really does seem so sloppy. The key question begins 'Thinking back to the General Election of May last year ,,,'. Somebody needs to tell Comres that we did not have a General Election last year at all!

Mortimer

TudorRose said:

Essexit said:

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

They know it's red rosette on a donkey territory. Why divert energy from Copeland where they have a real shot at humiliating Labour?

Of course the great irony would be if the 'LibDem surge' lets UKIP win in Stoke and helps the Tories win in Copeland.

I'm not sure the MarkSenior algo could cope with that.

Mortimer

Aha! I see the short straw collector is already happy with this poll.

justin124

Mortimer said:

Aha! I see the short straw collector is already happy with this poll.

I am sure you are capable of a more cerebral comment than that - assuming that you are in to serious psephological analysis. Admittedly not everybody is - many are on here for the betting - others for general political banter.

TudorRose

Mortimer said:

TudorRose said:

Essexit said:

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

They know it's red rosette on a donkey territory. Why divert energy from Copeland where they have a real shot at humiliating Labour?

Of course the great irony would be if the 'LibDem surge' lets UKIP win in Stoke and helps the Tories win in Copeland.

I'm not sure the MarkSenior algo could cope with that.

It would give Corbyn someone to blame; vote LibDem get UKIP/Tory.

Jonathan

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

Mortimer

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

Aha! I see the short straw collector is already happy with this poll.

I am sure you are capable of a more cerebral comment than that - assuming that you are in to serious psephological analysis. Admittedly not everybody is - many are on here for the betting - others for general political banter.

This is yet more evidence than Mrs May's Tories are popular and all other parties just aren't. There is little study of the cross tabs or misinterpretation of reweightings (the end of the last thread is quite funny) required to appreciate this. It is patentlyly obvious.

But I'm sure you can come up with some obtuse reference to the 1568 Parliament which will 'prove' Labour are going to win the next election.

HYUFD

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

Even on this poll the Tories would be 9% behind Labour in Stoke Central however they would be 1% ahead in Copeland so it is hardly surprising the Tories are focusing almost entirely on the latter

chestnut

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

Because they are recovering Tory Kippers, not Labour ones?

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

TINA.

Not when Labour are facing sub 200 seats.

AndyJS

TudorRose said:

If UKIP are losing votes to the Tories, then why aren't the Tories competing in Stoke, after all they were only 0.2% behind UKIP in 2015?

Because Stoke isn't natural Tory territory. Simple reason. They haven't won any seats in the area since 1931.

Jonathan

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

TINA.

Not when Labour are facing sub 200 seats.

Tories spent 13 years below 200 seats.

Stark_Dawning

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

justin124

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

Aha! I see the short straw collector is already happy with this poll.

I am sure you are capable of a more cerebral comment than that - assuming that you are in to serious psephological analysis. Admittedly not everybody is - many are on here for the betting - others for general political banter.

This is yet more evidence than Mrs May's Tories are popular and all other parties just aren't. There is little study of the cross tabs or misinterpretation of reweightings (the end of the last thread is quite funny) required to appreciate this. It is patentlyly obvious.

But I'm sure you can come up with some obtuse reference to the 1568 Parliament which will 'prove' Labour are going to win the next election.

I cannot imagine anyone denying that May and the Tories have a clear lead All the evidence - excepting some local by elections which I put down to local circumstances and disproportionate effort by the LibDems - supports that.All that is in doubt is the extent of it! I have never particularly rated Comres - others have labelled them Comedy Pollsters.The mere fact that they found it necessary to suspend their polling for 8 months speaks volumes - though Anthony Wells from UK Polling Report is saying that they have decided they were doing nothing wrong all along! I have to say that their new effort does not fill me with great confidence in their findings - which is not to say that they are always wrong

Artist

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

The noises about Rebecca Long-Bailey get ever louder..

MarkSenior

Before weighting Con 35 Lab 32 After Weighting Con 41 Lab 26 . Non representative sample suspect weighting , best to ignore .

NickPalmer

I'd be cautious about betting heavily on a UKIP slump in Stoke - see my report in the last thread. I think their ground game is much weaker than Labour's and that probably will make them fall short in the end, but I do expect them to at least run Labour reasonably close, becausethe Tories (22.5% in third place in 2015) are not trying hard, presumably because they think that a UKIP win will hurt Labour more than them even if the Tory score is poor.

The imponderable is how many Kipper-leaning voters will actually bother to vote without a strong ground game, and we don't really know. Incidentally, the 2015 Stoke result was intriguing because it appears superficially that 17-18% of the electorate switched from LibDem to UKIP. In reality there must have been more complex changes in there, but I wonder if there was a certain amount of grouping around "most promising non-Tory rival to Labour" going on, with the LibDem vote in Stoke in 2010 being more of a protest vote than a centrist vote.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

TINA.

Not when Labour are facing sub 200 seats.

Tories spent 13 years below 200 seats.

Have you heard of Scotland? They're not that keen on Labour up there anymore...

HYUFD

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

Jobabob

Artist said:

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

The noises about Rebecca Long-Bailey get ever louder..

Noises! She is a nice lady and telegenic but has no experience. This rumour appears to be the product of the overactive sense of humour of a Labour insider. Perhaps @NickPalmer could shed some light on this?

justin124

NickPalmer said:

I'd be cautious about betting heavily on a UKIP slump in Stoke - see my report in the last thread. I think their ground game is much weaker than Labour's and that probably will make them fall short in the end, but I do expect them to at least run Labour reasonably close, becausethe Tories (22.5% in third place in 2015) are not trying hard, presumably because they think that a UKIP win will hurt Labour more than them even if the Tory score is poor.

The imponderable is how many Kipper-leaning voters will actually bother to vote without a strong ground game, and we don't really know. Incidentally, the 2015 Stoke result was intriguing because it appears superficially that 17-18% of the electorate switched from LibDem to UKIP. In reality there must have been more complex changes in there, but I wonder if there was a certain amount of grouping around "most promising non-Tory rival to Labour" going on, with the LibDem vote in Stoke in 2010 being more of a protest vote than a centrist vote.

I suspect that your final sentence might nail the issue there. There are strong indications that the LibDems are working hard in Stoke, and the effect of that effort might well be to recapture a good many votes lost to UKIP in 2015.Far from certain they will damage Labour more than UKIP in that environment.

TudorRose

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

Mortimer

NickPalmer said:

I'd be cautious about betting heavily on a UKIP slump in Stoke - see my report in the last thread. I think their ground game is much weaker than Labour's and that probably will make them fall short in the end, but I do expect them to at least run Labour reasonably close, becausethe Tories (22.5% in third place in 2015) are not trying hard, presumably because they think that a UKIP win will hurt Labour more than them even if the Tory score is poor.

The imponderable is how many Kipper-leaning voters will actually bother to vote without a strong ground game, and we don't really know. Incidentally, the 2015 Stoke result was intriguing because it appears superficially that 17-18% of the electorate switched from LibDem to UKIP. In reality there must have been more complex changes in there, but I wonder if there was a certain amount of grouping around "most promising non-Tory rival to Labour" going on, with the LibDem vote in Stoke in 2010 being more of a protest vote than a centrist vote.

Appreciate your report Nick.

We've heard lots of guff from those who have not been to Stoke, meanwhile no media report has been in any way positive for Labour locally. I've not read a good word from the press about the candidate. Putting your report through the same betting filter that I apply to my own post canvassing optimism I conclude a few things:

LDs/Tories have no chance
Labour are not popular if people are talking about voting elsewhere - the socially normal behaviour has been broken by Brexit
This will be a close result - I'm calm about my UKIP long position.

HYUFD

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

Yes, Brexit is now happening anyway and free movement is going to end so there is not much reason for a large switch of voters from Labour to UKIP

MikeL

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

Artist said:

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

The noises about Rebecca Long-Bailey get ever louder..

Noises! She is a nice lady and telegenic but has no experience. This rumour appears to be the product of the overactive sense of humour of a Labour insider. Perhaps @NickPalmer could shed some light on this?

Even a relative political junkie like me has not heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey, given the state of Labour it is probably not the best idea to put in the most inexperienced leader in its history and given she is a Corbynista anyway and opposes Trident they may as well stick with Corbyn

justin124

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

AndyJS

justin124 said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

Greenwich was pretty close, Rosie Barnes losing by just 1,300.

Jobabob

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

TINA.

Not when Labour are facing sub 200 seats.

Tories spent 13 years below 200 seats.

Mortimer is still in short trousers. Young fogeys li

Mortimer said:

NickPalmer said:

I'd be cautious about betting heavily on a UKIP slump in Stoke - see my report in the last thread. I think their ground game is much weaker than Labour's and that probably will make them fall short in the end, but I do expect them to at least run Labour reasonably close, becausethe Tories (22.5% in third place in 2015) are not trying hard, presumably because they think that a UKIP win will hurt Labour more than them even if the Tory score is poor.

The imponderable is how many Kipper-leaning voters will actually bother to vote without a strong ground game, and we don't really know. Incidentally, the 2015 Stoke result was intriguing because it appears superficially that 17-18% of the electorate switched from LibDem to UKIP. In reality there must have been more complex changes in there, but I wonder if there was a certain amount of grouping around "most promising non-Tory rival to Labour" going on, with the LibDem vote in Stoke in 2010 being more of a protest vote than a centrist vote.

Appreciate your report Nick.

We've heard lots of guff from those who have not been to Stoke, meanwhile no media report has been in any way positive for Labour locally. I've not read a good word from the press about the candidate. Putting your report through the same betting filter that I apply to my own post canvassing optimism I conclude a few things:

LDs/Tories have no chance
Labour are not popular if people are talking about voting elsewhere - the socially normal behaviour has been broken by Brexit
This will be a close result - I'm calm about my UKIP long position.

I agree with all that. Good analysis.

Jobabob

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Artist said:

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

The noises about Rebecca Long-Bailey get ever louder..

Noises! She is a nice lady and telegenic but has no experience. This rumour appears to be the product of the overactive sense of humour of a Labour insider. Perhaps @NickPalmer could shed some light on this?

Even a relative political junkie like me has not heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey, given the state of Labour it is probably not the best idea to put in the most inexperienced leader in its history and given she is a Corbynista anyway and opposes Trident they may as well stick with Corbyn

She would be a step up from him, although admittedly that is damning by faint praise.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

The SDP merged with the Liberals in 1988 to form the Liberal Democrats with Owen resigning and being replaced by Robert Maclennan, Owen led a rump party but even he wound the party up after the 1990 Bootle by election. A few diehards remained, Barnes and Cartwright stood as Independent Social Democrats and there is still a tiny SDP and a tiny Liberal Party in existence for those still unreconciled to the 1988 merger

justin124

AndyJS said:

justin124 said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

Greenwich was pretty close, Rosie Barnes losing by just 1,300.

Indeed so - she ran Nick Raynsford close!

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

Artist said:

SquareRoot said:

justin124 said:

A proper Comres poll at last! From Mark Senior's observations it sounds a bit suspect - as ever. Have not had time to delve into the details yet but have noticed the Scotland crossbreak which looks very odd. On the basis of past vote, it seems to be saying that in 2015 Scotland voted 19% Con. and 12% Lab. Those figures ignore Non Voters , but the actual figures were Con 14% Lab 24%. One can only hope that the rest of the sample is more meaningful than that crossbreak.

well you would say that wouldn't you... meanwhile it seems Corbyn might have been economical with the truth as the Sunday Times headline refers to secret search for a successor

The noises about Rebecca Long-Bailey get ever louder..

Noises! She is a nice lady and telegenic but has no experience. This rumour appears to be the product of the overactive sense of humour of a Labour insider. Perhaps @NickPalmer could shed some light on this?

Even a relative political junkie like me has not heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey, given the state of Labour it is probably not the best idea to put in the most inexperienced leader in its history and given she is a Corbynista anyway and opposes Trident they may as well stick with Corbyn

She would be a step up from him, although admittedly that is damning by faint praise.

Well in the sense that anything with a pulse and some dress sense would be a step up from him, yes

TudorRose

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

The SDP merged with the Liberals in 1988 to form the Liberal Democrats with Owen resigning and being replaced by Robert Maclennan, Owen led a rump party but even he wound the party up after the 1990 Bootle by election. A few diehards remained, Barnes and Cartwright stood as Independent Social Democrats and there is still a tiny SDP and a tiny Liberal Party in existence for those still unreconciled to the 1988 merger

In the early/mid 90s we had a local councillor whose car numberplate contained the letters SDP and he refused to be merged; I was always convinced it was simply because he didn't want re-register his car!

Jobabob

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Exactly the problem. However, the PLP would probably agree to a deal simply to get rid of Corbyn and throw in a more palatable face. Long-Bailey is not really from his wing of the party - she's more union left than hard left. No guarantees she'd win over the selectorate, even with Jezza's endorsement.

TheScreamingEagles

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

TheScreamingEagles

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

Cameron was the watershed for me; a PM who was younger than me. My only consolation is that the average age of the House of Lords will have to drop a long way to get to the same place!

HYUFD

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

UKIP looked doomed to the same fate as the SDP. David Owen eventually pulled the plug when he was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party. I suspect there will be a similarly humiliating event that will trigger Farage to do likewise.

Owen lost the battle but won the war. Of the 3 general election winning PMs following the SDP's last general election in 1987, Major, Blair and Cameron, all were closer to Owen's SDP than either Thatcher's Tories or Kinnock's Labour Party.

UKIP may have lost the battle but it won the war too, the UK is leaving the EU and May's Tories have now adopted so much of the UKIP platform they are effectively redundant. Only if May backtracks or compromises on free movement and access to the single market in the Brexit negotiations will UKIP still have a role (of course that is perfectly possible)

And I suppose that if tribalism stops former Labour voters going to the Tories then UKIP may represent a long-term option in certain Leave-heavy Labour areas (like Stoke). My gut feel is that apathy is the more likely victor (especially in a by-election).

1992 was really the SDP's last general election. Owen did not stand that year, but Rosie Barnes and John Cartwright defended their seats and were defeated.

The SDP merged with the Liberals in 1988 to form the Liberal Democrats with Owen resigning and being replaced by Robert Maclennan, Owen led a rump party but even he wound the party up after the 1990 Bootle by election. A few diehards remained, Barnes and Cartwright stood as Independent Social Democrats and there is still a tiny SDP and a tiny Liberal Party in existence for those still unreconciled to the 1988 merger

In the early/mid 90s we had a local councillor whose car numberplate contained the letters SDP and he refused to be merged; I was always convinced it was simply because he didn't want re-register his car!

Good story

GeoffM

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

Jobabob

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

DanSmith

Long-Bailey feels a bit Andy Burnham to me. And incredibly inexperienced.

TudorRose

GeoffM said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

The great thing about Ms is that (from a gender point of view) it's an utterly pointless gesture as I've never met a man who called himself Ms.... unless you know different!

HYUFD

DanSmith said:

Long-Bailey feels a bit Andy Burnham to me. And incredibly inexperienced.

She is more leftwing than Burnham

Jobabob

GeoffM said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

A happily married Mrs I believe. And more of a union shaker than an 'SJW'

OUT

Interesting.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38947451

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Jobabob

TudorRose said:

GeoffM said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

The great thing about Ms is that (from a gender point of view) it's an utterly pointless gesture as I've never met a man who called himself Ms.... unless you know different!

It's designed so you are unable to tell whether a woman is married, not so you can't determine her sex

Jobabob

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

Yes and having SNP support is almost certainly the only way Labour have a chance of power after the next general election

GeoffM

Jobabob said:

GeoffM said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

A happily married Mrs I believe. And more of a union shaker than an 'SJW'

If she's happily married then she wouldn't be embarrassed about him and hide behind "Ms"

Maybe other people have spontaneously decided to use that on her behalf.

TudorRose

Jobabob said:

TudorRose said:

GeoffM said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

Mrs, Miss or divorced/lesbian/SJW

The great thing about Ms is that (from a gender point of view) it's an utterly pointless gesture as I've never met a man who called himself Ms.... unless you know different!

It's designed so you are unable to tell whether a woman is married, not so you can't determine her sex

That doesn't really work either if you hyphenate your name to show that you're part of a partnership. I'm not sure what the case is with Long-Bailey but she was born as simply 'Long'.

Jobabob

I have no idea whether RLB uses Mrs or Ms - not that it matters! - it was someone upthread who merely speculated that she used Ms

TheScreamingEagles

Blistering good story by @STJamesl.

So BMG focus grouped, Rebecca Bailey-Long, Angela Raynor, and John McDonnell.

RBL da best,

Raynor - but the responses to her were “overwhelmingly negative”.

McDonnell split opinion - Some said he looked “posh” and “confident”, others thought he looked “timid” and “nervous”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/secret-labour-search-for-corbyn-heir-mkmskppr6

Jobabob

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

Yes and having SNP support is almost certainly the only way Labour have a chance of power after the next general election

Correct and for many lefties that would be no bad thing

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/830571190838235136

TudorRose

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

Yes and having SNP support is almost certainly the only way Labour have a chance of power after the next general election

Correct and for many lefties that would be no bad thing

Wouldn't it be the kiss of death for SLab?

Wulfrun_Phil

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Back in the Spring of 2016 I spent a day at a Labour economics seminar at the LSE including two workshops which Long-Bailey chaired, then as a very junior shadow Treasury minister. She was lousy in the way she handled both sessions and made loads of pretty inane comments in the process. I got the impression that here was someone who was where she was purely because of her political affiliations - there were and are precious few others left in the bottom of the barrel. If it were down selecting shadow minister on talent or the need to understand the brief she would be nowhere. A lightweight if ever there was one.

Jobabob

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blistering good story by @STJamesl.

So BMG focus grouped, Rebecca Bailey-Long, Angela Raynor, and John McDonnell.

RBL da best,

Raynor - but the responses to her were “overwhelmingly negative”.

McDonnell split opinion - Some said he looked “posh” and “confident”, others thought he looked “timid” and “nervous”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/secret-labour-search-for-corbyn-heir-mkmskppr6

What were their comments about Rebecca?

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/830571190838235136

So Corbyn does have friends in the military after all!

Jobabob

TudorRose said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

Yes and having SNP support is almost certainly the only way Labour have a chance of power after the next general election

Correct and for many lefties that would be no bad thing

Wouldn't it be the kiss of death for SLab?

Who? ;-)

TheScreamingEagles

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blistering good story by @STJamesl.

So BMG focus grouped, Rebecca Bailey-Long, Angela Raynor, and John McDonnell.

RBL da best,

Raynor - but the responses to her were “overwhelmingly negative”.

McDonnell split opinion - Some said he looked “posh” and “confident”, others thought he looked “timid” and “nervous”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/secret-labour-search-for-corbyn-heir-mkmskppr6

What were their comments about Rebecca?

Long-Bailey, a former lawyer and the MP for Salford and Eccles, emerged as the most credible figure with voters describing her as “passionate”, “genuine”, “sincere” and “very smart”, although some saw her as “aggressive” and “rough”.

TGOHF

Working class with a double barrel name ? Either a fibber, a premiership footballer or chavvy. Or all 3.

Wulfrun_Phil

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Back in the Spring of 2016 I spent a day at a Labour economics seminar at the LSE including two workshops which Long-Bailey chaired, then as a very junior shadow Treasury minister. She was lousy in the way she handled both sessions and made loads of pretty inane comments in the process. I got the impression that here was someone who was where she was purely because of her political affiliations - there were and are precious few others left in the bottom of the barrel. If it were down selecting shadow minister on talent or the need to understand the brief she would be nowhere. A lightweight if ever there was one.

Correction, it was at Imperial College. Just in case anyone checks and thinks I'm telling porkies.

No_Offence_Alan

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

That ship sailed for me with William Hague.

TheScreamingEagles

Gah, do I do the morning thread on this?

I want to party.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blistering good story by @STJamesl.

So BMG focus grouped, Rebecca Bailey-Long, Angela Raynor, and John McDonnell.

RBL da best,

Raynor - but the responses to her were “overwhelmingly negative”.

McDonnell split opinion - Some said he looked “posh” and “confident”, others thought he looked “timid” and “nervous”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/secret-labour-search-for-corbyn-heir-mkmskppr6

McDonnell would be better to take the job first if Corbyn does go, then the likes of Long-Bailey could take over post election

TudorRose

BBC reporting that North Korea has conducted another missile test. Now where was that bunker I dug in the 1990s?

Floater

I see the poison dwarf now looking to stay speaker until at least 2020

Another broken promise then]

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Indeed. Very true.

Yes and having SNP support is almost certainly the only way Labour have a chance of power after the next general election

Correct and for many lefties that would be no bad thing

Certainly for leftie Remainers a Labour minority government supported by the SNP, the LDs and the Greens would be ideal

HYUFD

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

She's a Mrs (or almost certainly a Ms).

The best thing about her, apart from backing her at 66/1, is that she's a solicitor.

That makes her awesome.

The depressing thing is that she's younger than me, no way can a major party be led by someone younger than me.

She has an attractive back story. WWC, self-made, blonde, well presented - appeals to the same instincts as Nicola Sturgeon - just without any of the requisite experience and quite possibly too few of the skills. She'd surely melt pretty rapidly were she to become leader. 66/1 is clearly value though. She is now 12/1.

One thing she may have in her favour is I expect Sturgeon could more easily work with Rebecca Long-Bailey than Jeremy Corbyn

Back in the Spring of 2016 I spent a day at a Labour economics seminar at the LSE including two workshops which Long-Bailey chaired, then as a very junior shadow Treasury minister. She was lousy in the way she handled both sessions and made loads of pretty inane comments in the process. I got the impression that here was someone who was where she was purely because of her political affiliations - there were and are precious few others left in the bottom of the barrel. If it were down selecting shadow minister on talent or the need to understand the brief she would be nowhere. A lightweight if ever there was one.

Well she has a degree at least unlike Corbyn but in politics and sociology from Manchester Metropolitan University which does not exactly suggest an intellectual heavyweight

TheScreamingEagles

It looks like Labour's internal polling is more in line with most of the national polls.

Labour get absolutely smashed whilst led by Corbyn.

Floater

HYUFD said:

DanSmith said:

Long-Bailey feels a bit Andy Burnham to me. And incredibly inexperienced.

She is more leftwing than Burnham

Does Burnham actually have beliefs?

He changes his position more often than I change socks :-)

HYUFD

Floater said:

HYUFD said:

DanSmith said:

Long-Bailey feels a bit Andy Burnham to me. And incredibly inexperienced.

She is more leftwing than Burnham

Does Burnham actually have beliefs?

He changes his position more often than I change socks :-)

He is loyal to whoever is leader of the Labour Party of the day, or so he says, a bit like Nick Palmer

Floater

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

For now Jon, for now

The longer the mad left retain control the worse it will get for Labour.

DecrepitJohnL

OUT said:

Interesting.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38947451

An interesting test of President Trump's 140-character foreign policy. This presumably is the missile test Trump tweeted "won't happen" although doubtless it will now be "clarified" that he meant something else.

kle4

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Labour still the only game in town if you want an alternative to the Conservatives.

For now Jon, for now

The longer the mad left retain control the worse it will get for Labour.

You're both right - it will get worse the longer this goes on, but it's still true they are the nearest viable (in numbers) alternative, and there's little to suggest that will change any time soon.

nunu

TudorRose said:

BBC reporting that North Korea has conducted another missile test. Now where was that bunker I dug in the 1990s?

We still have our bomb shelter at the back if the garden.

MikeL

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

I don't think we can be sure that everyone who backed Corbyn in the confidence vote would nominate Long-Bailey.

For starters, some may just have felt that Corbyn deserved a bit more time.

MPs are going to be increasingly thinking about the next GE - I think there will be concern that Long-Bailey doesn't look like a credible PM - she looks very young and everything she says comes across as extremely simplistic - she doesn't have anywhere near the gravitas to be PM.

Pulpstar

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Would Long-Bailey get the required nominations if Corbyn stands down?

Corbyn was approx 5 or 6 (?) nominations short last time - ie in terms of genuine supporters.

So next time, any "Corbyn Mark 2" candidate is going to have to get extra nominations from more centrist Lab MPs. Could Long-Bailey do that?

I would have thought Lab MPs would be concerned that she doesn't have anything like the necessary gravitas to look like a credible PM.

Yes.

1) 40 MPs backed Corbyn in the no confidence vote, so if all those would nominate Miss Long-Bailey, she'd be on the ballot.

2) If Corbyn told the PLP he would stand down as Leader if they agreed to nominate his chosen candidate, they'd bite his hand off.

I don't think we can be sure that everyone who backed Corbyn in the confidence vote would nominate Long-Bailey.

For starters, some may just have felt that Corbyn deserved a bit more time.

MPs are going to be increasingly thinking about the next GE - I think there will be concern that Long-Bailey doesn't look like a credible PM - she looks very young and everything she says comes across as extremely simplistic - she doesn't have anywhere near the gravitas to be PM.

Is being young such a crime ?

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

It looks like Labour's internal polling is more in line with most of the national polls.

Labour get absolutely smashed whilst led by Corbyn.

TORY!!!

RobD

Evening all. I see we have a new gold standard pollster

Dadge

According to that poll, the current reactionary-progressive balance is about 53%-47%. So the progressive parties aren't too far behind but suffer from the way they split the vote.

Dadge

The wacky world of politics, where someone who I didn't even know was an MP - someone so far off the radar that her name hasn't even been mentioned in despatches from her own mother - is now being touted as the next leader of the Labour Party.

I know that Labour's pool of leadership talent is small, but allowing JC to pick RLB (or someone equally poor) would be pointless and stupid.

TheScreamingEagles

Dadge said:

The wacky world of politics, where someone who I didn't even know was an MP - someone so far off the radar that her name hasn't even been mentioned in despatches from her own mother - is now being touted as the next leader of the Labour Party.

I know that Labour's pool of leadership talent is small, but allowing JC to pick RLB (or someone equally poor) would be pointless and stupid.

You could have said the same about David Cameron in Oct 2005.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dadge said:

The wacky world of politics, where someone who I didn't even know was an MP - someone so far off the radar that her name hasn't even been mentioned in despatches from her own mother - is now being touted as the next leader of the Labour Party.

I know that Labour's pool of leadership talent is small, but allowing JC to pick RLB (or someone equally poor) would be pointless and stupid.

You could have said the same about David Cameron in Oct 2005.

At least Dave had been an MP for just over 4 years back then.

Sunil_Prasannan

The train is coming
The train is coming
The train is coming
The train is coming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsCR05oKROA

AndyJS

Dadge said:

According to that poll, the current reactionary-progressive balance is about 53%-47%. So the progressive parties aren't too far behind but suffer from the way they split the vote.

In 2010 progressive parties were on about 60%.

AndyJS

"A German court has upheld its ban on a satirical poem that mocks Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Hamburg court said that it stands by its order, issued last May, which prohibited republication of parts of a poem by German comic Jan Boehmermann.
The satirist, who is barred for repeating the majority of the verses, says he will appeal the verdict."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38934027