Ruth Davidson seems to be succeeding in creating a distinct Scottish Tory brand, that is more centrist and detached from Westminster, and more closely resembles the Unionist Party of the 50s and 60s.
That opens up quite a few options for seat targeting in the Scottish borders and highlands. If she's very lucky, perhaps even a couple of suburban middle-class seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow too, like Edinburgh South-West and East Renfrewshire come into play too.
Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats are going precisely nowhere in Scotland.
Utter bollox
Because you do not wish it to be so, or do you have some actual evidence?
Do you think on current polling numbers the Scottish Tories will gain precisely nothing?
I see the sap is rising on PB and love is, as ever when we discuss Scotland, in the air.
Poor Labour. They're just blundering about in a field of rakes. I can't think of anything we can point to that's going well for them. Though having said that, Lisa Nandy is making all the right noises recently. Started paying a lot more attention to her.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Just out of interest, how many SNP MSPs can you name (excluding those in ministerial posts)?
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
I don't believe the EU referendum was as as profoundly felt by as many people in the UK as the independence referendum was in Scotland.
Well as OGH kept reminding us nobody cared about Europe. That just manifested itself on a different way than we all expected so the biggest reaction most people seemed to have over the result was shock rather than tears. I think the genuinely upset are a tiny proportion of the population.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
At the 2012 Scottish locale government elections results where as follows:
SNP 32% 425 Seats
SLAB 31% 394 Seats
Independent 12% 196 Seats
SCON 13% 115 Seats
LibDem 6% 71 Seats
Green 2% 14 seats
So for SCon to over take SLab they would need to take 140 seats directly form SLab, (other combinations are also possible) in this years LG elections.
Do other PBs see this as likely/possible? the 2015 GE result and 2016 Scot Parliament Result would indicate 'yes' but I wonder to what extent the incumbency and the AV voting system may reduce that swing?
My early estimate for seat changes
SNP gain 20 Lab lose 140 Con gain 110 LD gain 10 Ind minus 5 Green plus 5
So SLab will stay ahead of SCon by a few
I think you are underestimating both Labour losses and Tory gains. The system is proportional but only up to a point. This made the Tory vote much more inefficient than it should have been last time and Labour will suffer in most of Scotland outside the central belt this time.
I also think, going on the last Scottish elections that the SNP will lose seats to the Tories in the north east and possibly the borders whilst gaining a considerable number from Labour in the west, particularly Glasgow where Labour are cruising for some dockside treatment. It is going to touch and go if they end up ahead on seat numbers overall.
Feel free to put up your alternative numbers . The STV system will mitigate Labour losses a litlle as although their vote will fall heavily it will remain enough to hang on to 1 seat in most 4 seat wards . Similarly the Conservative vote may increase a lot and win 1 seat where they had none before but not give 2 seats where they already have one . The Vote2012 website analyses each council area and gives various posters' estimates of seat changes .
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
You are simply wishing that the Opinium figures are wrong! If they are accurate my point holds. Moreover, the fact that ALL the polls were wrong in 2015 does not mean that Yougov and ICM must be right now.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
I don't believe the EU referendum was as as profoundly felt by as many people in the UK as the independence referendum was in Scotland.
The EU is still there. If you think it's a force for the good, it's still one even if we are no longer a part of it. Also if you think it's the Evil Empire, I guess. If Scotland had voted Yes, the gig would be have been up for the United Kingdom, Scots, who voted on it certainly had divided opinions. I imagine the English, Welsh and N Irish would also have strong views on the disappearance of their country, without actually having had a say.
BTW Don't believe for a moment that Theresa May has dealt with Scotland over Brexit.
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
If what I have heard is accurate, the Estonian government has a certain view of the situation. FoM of Estonian workers to be balanced with FoM of the Russian army.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
You are simply wishing that the Opinium figures are wrong! If they are accurate my point holds. Moreover, the fact that ALL the polls were wrong in 2015 does not mean that Yougov and ICM must be right now.
Yes but we already know they were wrong at the last election, just that the likes of Yougov and ICM have adjusted their methodology rather more it seems. We will see when Copeland and Stoke vote what the situation really is
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
You are simply wishing that the Opinium figures are wrong! If they are accurate my point holds. Moreover, the fact that ALL the polls were wrong in 2015 does not mean that Yougov and ICM must be right now.
Yes but we already know they were wrong at the last election, just that the likes of Yougov and ICM have adjusted their methodology rather more it seems. We will see when Copeland and Stoke vote what the situation really is
But all the pollsters have adjusted their methodologies - we simply do not know which adjustments were justified. Time will tell!
At the 2012 Scottish locale government elections results where as follows:
SNP 32% 425 Seats
SLAB 31% 394 Seats
Independent 12% 196 Seats
SCON 13% 115 Seats
LibDem 6% 71 Seats
Green 2% 14 seats
So for SCon to over take SLab they would need to take 140 seats directly form SLab, (other combinations are also possible) in this years LG elections.
Do other PBs see this as likely/possible? the 2015 GE result and 2016 Scot Parliament Result would indicate 'yes' but I wonder to what extent the incumbency and the AV voting system may reduce that swing?
My early estimate for seat changes
SNP gain 20 Lab lose 140 Con gain 110 LD gain 10 Ind minus 5 Green plus 5
So SLab will stay ahead of SCon by a few
I think you are underestimating both Labour losses and Tory gains. The system is proportional but only up to a point. This made the Tory vote much more inefficient than it should have been last time and Labour will suffer in most of Scotland outside the central belt this time.
I also think, going on the last Scottish elections that the SNP will lose seats to the Tories in the north east and possibly the borders whilst gaining a considerable number from Labour in the west, particularly Glasgow where Labour are cruising for some dockside treatment. It is going to touch and go if they end up ahead on seat numbers overall.
Feel free to put up your alternative numbers . The STV system will mitigate Labour losses a litlle as although their vote will fall heavily it will remain enough to hang on to 1 seat in most 4 seat wards . Similarly the Conservative vote may increase a lot and win 1 seat where they had none before but not give 2 seats where they already have one . The Vote2012 website analyses each council area and gives various posters' estimates of seat changes .
Ok, just for fun, I would guess
Tories +150 Labour -190 Lib Dems +20 SNP +5 Independent/Green etc -15.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
Therefore effectively the official opposition
The customary HYUFD 'I'm right, I'm right, even when I'm wrong'.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
You are simply wishing that the Opinium figures are wrong! If they are accurate my point holds. Moreover, the fact that ALL the polls were wrong in 2015 does not mean that Yougov and ICM must be right now.
Yes but we already know they were wrong at the last election, just that the likes of Yougov and ICM have adjusted their methodology rather more it seems. We will see when Copeland and Stoke vote what the situation really is
By-elections in the winter cold will tell us something. They won't tell us who will win the next general election. Who wins will be driven by differential turnout.
At the 2012 Scottish locale government elections results where as follows:
SNP 32% 425 Seats
SLAB 31% 394 Seats
Independent 12% 196 Seats
SCON 13% 115 Seats
LibDem 6% 71 Seats
Green 2% 14 seats
So for SCon to over take SLab they would need to take 140 seats directly form SLab, (other combinations are also possible) in this years LG elections.
Do other PBs see this as likely/possible? the 2015 GE result and 2016 Scot Parliament Result would indicate 'yes' but I wonder to what extent the incumbency and the AV voting system may reduce that swing?
My early estimate for seat changes
SNP gain 20 Lab lose 140 Con gain 110 LD gain 10 Ind minus 5 Green plus 5
So SLab will stay ahead of SCon by a few
I think you are underestimating both Labour losses and Tory gains. The system is proportional but only up to a point. This made the Tory vote much more inefficient than it should have been last time and Labour will suffer in most of Scotland outside the central belt this time.
I also think, going on the last Scottish elections that the SNP will lose seats to the Tories in the north east and possibly the borders whilst gaining a considerable number from Labour in the west, particularly Glasgow where Labour are cruising for some dockside treatment. It is going to touch and go if they end up ahead on seat numbers overall.
Feel free to put up your alternative numbers . The STV system will mitigate Labour losses a litlle as although their vote will fall heavily it will remain enough to hang on to 1 seat in most 4 seat wards . Similarly the Conservative vote may increase a lot and win 1 seat where they had none before but not give 2 seats where they already have one . The Vote2012 website analyses each council area and gives various posters' estimates of seat changes .
Ok, just for fun, I would guess
Tories +150 Labour -190 Lib Dems +20 SNP +5 Independent/Green etc -15.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
Therefore effectively the official opposition
The customary HYUFD 'I'm right, I'm right, even when I'm wrong'.
I find admitting defeat on small points makes people inclined to take one more seriously when one doesn't concede. Tin eared on everying is rarely a winning formula.
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
At the 2012 Scottish locale government elections results where as follows:
SNP 32% 425 Seats
SLAB 31% 394 Seats
Independent 12% 196 Seats
SCON 13% 115 Seats
LibDem 6% 71 Seats
Green 2% 14 seats
So for SCon to over take SLab they would need to take 140 seats directly form SLab, (other combinations are also possible) in this years LG elections.
Do other PBs see this as likely/possible? the 2015 GE result and 2016 Scot Parliament Result would indicate 'yes' but I wonder to what extent the incumbency and the AV voting system may reduce that swing?
My early estimate for seat changes
SNP gain 20 Lab lose 140 Con gain 110 LD gain 10 Ind minus 5 Green plus 5
So SLab will stay ahead of SCon by a few
I think you are underestimating both Labour losses and Tory gains. The system is proportional but only up to a point. This made the Tory vote much more inefficient than it should have been last time and Labour will suffer in most of Scotland outside the central belt this time.
I also think, going on the last Scottish elections that the SNP will lose seats to the Tories in the north east and possibly the borders whilst gaining a considerable number from Labour in the west, particularly Glasgow where Labour are cruising for some dockside treatment. It is going to touch and go if they end up ahead on seat numbers overall.
Feel free to put up your alternative numbers . The STV system will mitigate Labour losses a litlle as although their vote will fall heavily it will remain enough to hang on to 1 seat in most 4 seat wards . Similarly the Conservative vote may increase a lot and win 1 seat where they had none before but not give 2 seats where they already have one . The Vote2012 website analyses each council area and gives various posters' estimates of seat changes .
Ok, just for fun, I would guess
Tories +150 Labour -190 Lib Dems +20 SNP +5 Independent/Green etc -15.
Thanks
Not often that someone thinks the Lib Dems will get more seats than you Mark. But they also have the advantage of support being concentrated in productive blocks. I expect them to pick up seats in north east Fife and Edinburgh.
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
Very sensible - provided the Russians don't come.
That people are even saying this shows the malign effect of Putin. Estonia's no threat unless, I suppose, the success of its economy is seen as an threat by example to statist Putin Russia.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
Therefore effectively the official opposition
The customary HYUFD 'I'm right, I'm right, even when I'm wrong'.
They are the largest party after the governing SNP so they are the main opposition party, yes
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Yet they are now the official opposition at Holyrood and still making gains
If you're going to spout guff about Scotland, at least get the terminolgy right. There is no 'official opposition' at Holyrood, just the pleasingly literal largest opposition party.
Therefore effectively the official opposition
The customary HYUFD 'I'm right, I'm right, even when I'm wrong'.
I find admitting defeat on small points makes people inclined to take one more seriously when one doesn't concede. Tin eared on everying is rarely a winning formula.
There is nothing tin eared about saying the Tories are the largest opposition party in Scotland because it is true
Not often that someone thinks the Lib Dems will get more seats than you Mark. But they also have the advantage of support being concentrated in productive blocks. I expect them to pick up seats in north east Fife and Edinburgh.
Not a typical seat by any means, but Labour, who unexpectedly won Edinburgh Southern off the SNP last year, are active in leafleting the constituency, as are the Lib Dems. The Tories and SNP not at all, despite both being real prospects.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
No they most certainly would not given today's Opinium poll has Labour 4% below their final poll on eve of poll in 2015. The latest yougov and ICM polls would see the Tories gain seats from Labour in England and Wales
You are simply wishing that the Opinium figures are wrong! If they are accurate my point holds. Moreover, the fact that ALL the polls were wrong in 2015 does not mean that Yougov and ICM must be right now.
Yes but we already know they were wrong at the last election, just that the likes of Yougov and ICM have adjusted their methodology rather more it seems. We will see when Copeland and Stoke vote what the situation really is
By-elections in the winter cold will tell us something. They won't tell us who will win the next general election. Who wins will be driven by differential turnout.
They will certainly give some indication of any swing against Labour
Quite accurate too. I wouldn't want to leave Eastern Europe at the mercy of Russia but if the EU try and punish the UK, it ultimately UK and American troops protecting the European border from Russian incursion.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
Given SNP are 10 years into government and May is a month , that seems a fatuous comparison.
May is now over 6 months in government, the Tories 7 years in power
and still hated in Scotland just as much if not more
Neither May nor Davidson are hated in Scotland as this poll proves
It proves nothing , they have 1 MP and a handful of MSP's and a few best losers on list, that proves how highly they are thought of. They are not trusted to run a bath.
They now have 31 MSPs which is more than a handful
They achieve nothing , get laughed out of the place week in and week out. Almost all their places are jobsworths from the list , talentless nohopers. I could hardly name 5 Tory MSP's and I am interested in politics, most people would struggle beyond two, invisible nonentities.
Just out of interest, how many SNP MSPs can you name (excluding those in ministerial posts)?
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
I agree. Demographic shifts are largely to blame. The plus side of that is that they won't persist forever (life expectancy can only go so high, unless you subscribe to the theory that within a few decades we'll be able to artificially extend it).
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
Very sensible - provided the Russians don't come.
My mates GF is from there and they are planning to move near Talinn (or the countries second city) one day.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
They would rather spend the money on crap boats at £1 billion a time that can be heard over a hyundred miles away , or over £1 billion on drones that never saw light of day.......blah blah blah all day long. They are donkeys and would struggle to tie their shoelaces never mind run a country.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
I'll always treasure that moment when you cited a 2pt increase for SLab in a Scottish sub sample as evidence of the positive effect that Jim Murphy was having on their fortunes.
From education to finance the SNP isn't delivering and the trick of blaming the English isn't working anymore. You sound like SLab of a few years back, complacent and taking your voters for granted.
You an expert on Scottish education and finance then Monica. Is that teh pocket money that comes from Westminster you are talking about I presume.
A national deficit of 9.5 % and rising is all you need to know about the SNP's financial madness.
Actually its 15%, the 9.5% is the amount above the UK as a whole.
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
Very sensible - provided the Russians don't come.
That people are even saying this shows the malign effect of Putin. Estonia's no threat unless, I suppose, the success of its economy is seen as an threat by example to statist Putin Russia.
Putin and his ilk are Greater Russian nationalists. The essence of that faith is that all of the territory that belonged to the USSR at it's greatest extent *should* be part of Russia again.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
Hard to fault what you say. Politicians trying to tackle these things tend to become less popular though, and then they're not around. If Theresa May survives the Brexit fright-ride then perhaps she may have the popularity to start to tackle these issues. We, as voters, can somewhat do our bit in really trying to hold to account politicians who like to ignore Economics.
On the current course we will go bust with near certainty as will many of the countries of the western world. A massive dose of inflation might fix things, but that brings with it a lot of other problems.
Paradoxically the answer might be to spend, but to spend on things that spin out into opportunity. Spending an extra billion on the NHS just gets soaked up - spending 100billon would too.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
This is clearly true but many for ideological reasons will never admit that more investment is needed, until after the fact (assuming their party approved it). They will always claim it's "waste" that is the problem despite the many international benchmarks showing we spend less and have fewer hospital beds than our peers.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
I'll always treasure that moment when you cited a 2pt increase for SLab in a Scottish sub sample as evidence of the positive effect that Jim Murphy was having on their fortunes.
From education to finance the SNP isn't delivering and the trick of blaming the English isn't working anymore. You sound like SLab of a few years back, complacent and taking your voters for granted.
You an expert on Scottish education and finance then Monica. Is that teh pocket money that comes from Westminster you are talking about I presume.
A national deficit of 9.5 % and rising is all you need to know about the SNP's financial madness.
Actually its 15%, the 9.5% is the amount above the UK as a whole.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
I'll always treasure that moment when you cited a 2pt increase for SLab in a Scottish sub sample as evidence of the positive effect that Jim Murphy was having on their fortunes.
From education to finance the SNP isn't delivering and the trick of blaming the English isn't working anymore. You sound like SLab of a few years back, complacent and taking your voters for granted.
You an expert on Scottish education and finance then Monica. Is that teh pocket money that comes from Westminster you are talking about I presume.
A national deficit of 9.5 % and rising is all you need to know about the SNP's financial madness.
Actually its 15%, the 9.5% is the amount above the UK as a whole.
Although the caption is faintly amusing it's worth remembering that while Estonian young men are busy working in England UK troops are deployed to Estonia defending their border. Only one of these issues is formally subject to Brexit negotiations.
Genius Sports employs about 400 people in Estonia, quite a few of whom are British, and have found that a developer's salary goes about 10x further in Talinn than in London.
Very sensible - provided the Russians don't come.
That people are even saying this shows the malign effect of Putin. Estonia's no threat unless, I suppose, the success of its economy is seen as an threat by example to statist Putin Russia.
Putin and his ilk are Greater Russian nationalists. The essence of that faith is that all of the territory that belonged to the USSR at it's greatest extent *should* be part of Russia again.
Quite accurate too. I wouldn't want to leave Eastern Europe at the mercy of Russia but if the EU try and punish the UK, it ultimately UK and American troops protecting the European border from Russian incursion.
It's American troops. The UK makes next to no difference in terms of feet on the ground.
I've heard much talk on here of the SNP honeymoon being over. Anyone got a rough date, or year even, just for betting purposes like?
So that's a no then.
Well given the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood last year and on this poll are seeing a swing from them to the Tories at Westminster I would say it is now clearly over. In fact May is presently enjoying more of a honeymoon than the SNP. That does not mean they will stop being the largest party in Scotland anytime soon but the Scottish electorate's love affair with Salmond and Sturgeon is clearly over
I'll always treasure that moment when you cited a 2pt increase for SLab in a Scottish sub sample as evidence of the positive effect that Jim Murphy was having on their fortunes.
From education to finance the SNP isn't delivering and the trick of blaming the English isn't working anymore. You sound like SLab of a few years back, complacent and taking your voters for granted.
You an expert on Scottish education and finance then Monica. Is that teh pocket money that comes from Westminster you are talking about I presume.
A national deficit of 9.5 % and rising is all you need to know about the SNP's financial madness.
Actually its 15%, the 9.5% is the amount above the UK as a whole.
Both are garbage made up numbers
Is there a more accurate number?
Not that I know of, the numbers are not available , they even include billions in debt repayment etc, there are no accurate figures only what London give out.
Quite accurate too. I wouldn't want to leave Eastern Europe at the mercy of Russia but if the EU try and punish the UK, it ultimately UK and American troops protecting the European border from Russian incursion.
Bet we are lucky to break single figures. Russians will be real scared.
Quite accurate too. I wouldn't want to leave Eastern Europe at the mercy of Russia but if the EU try and punish the UK, it ultimately UK and American troops protecting the European border from Russian incursion.
It's American troops. The UK makes next to no difference in terms of feet on the ground.
Either way the EU threatening the UK or US with reprisals is ultimately a self-destructive idea.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
There is a simple answer, bake up into smaller units, Privatise, and deregulate. The Railways first, and then the NHS.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
Bloody hell, Lab and Con basically switched around since May 2015. More opportunity for Mrs May to call an election?
I think that has to be the wrong call. If we had a May (in both senses) election we'd find ourselves with another GE in May 2022. As it is the government faces no real difficulties, and will go on to May 2020. A messed up early GE would lose 3 years, and the gain is the extra two years that are probably yours in the bag anyway.
With one year to go if it was painless to achieve it the I imagine she would go early.
I make a little money from betting on political uncertainty, and I hate the idea of Corbyn and co. being allowed to run a sweetshop, let alone the UK. So I'm massively adjusting my betting towards an early GE - however I still nearly make the 2020 election at evens some value.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
@Cyclefree - Vancouver Island is heaven on earth. Fly (or drive, but it is a trek) up to Tofino if you can. When I was at Uni I turned down an offer to work a summer at the Wickaninish, one of few regrets from those years....
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
And that's why you lost your referendum and Sam won his.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
The same D- for reading comprehension as Sammy boy.
'I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage'
You should probably revisit your inclination to jump half arsed into other people's exchanges.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
Those Leavers who wail that soft Brexit isn't going to happen still seem blissfully unaware (or in intense denial) that was an inevitable consequence of pandering to xenophobes. The nature of a victory in large part defines its consequences.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
I wouldn't have to campaign alongside them, and you wouldn't have to campaign alongside Farage. But if they persuaded some people to vote for us to Leave I would take the votes because my desire is us to Leave, not for the people I want to be in charge to be in Parliament, that's for my fellow countrymen to decide.
You want to live in SNPland not Scotland, nothing wrong with that. I would rather Corbyn as PM and England out of the EU than Farage as PM with us in (although that couldn't happen as if UKIP had a majority, we would just leave as the power ultimately lies in Westminster)
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
ThUD is well aware of extreme elements within Scottish nationalism, he protests his virtue rather too much.
27% for the Conservatives in Scotland probably overstates their position a little , 23-24% is more likely but the May local elections will give a better idea . Unless their vote becomes less flat they will only end up with 5/6 Parliamentary seats at best .
Based on this poll the Tories would win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine from the SNP and have a shot at Perth and North Perthshire and Moray and Edinburgh South would be neck and neck with Labour. However those seat gains could offset any losses to the LDs in South West London and seats like Lewes and Bath. If they then gain some seats from Labour in England and Wales May could increase her majority overall
On the basisof today's Opinium poll the Tories could lose 14 seats to Labour in England & Wales.
Yet you still think the Tories won't have the mother of all three line whips - and deselection threats - to get the new boundaries though?
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
Those Leavers who wail that soft Brexit isn't going to happen still seem blissfully unaware (or in intense denial) that was an inevitable consequence of pandering to xenophobes. The nature of a victory in large part defines its consequences.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
Well I voted leave Alastair. It really was a struggle for me to decide. I did consider the arguments of friends who's views I respect (almost all for remain). I considered too the arguments I heard elsewhere - whoever made them. I gave most weight to my own judgement, a good deal of weight to the view of people I respect, and so on.
Given there are no other numbers it is a moot point , it matters not a jot , once you take of all the punitive repayments , paying for Trident , paying for London infraastructure the numbers are garbage. In an independent Scotland they would remain garbage and be of no consequence. Every other small country in the world can be independent and run deficits etc , why would it be a concern for Scotland.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
Those Leavers who wail that soft Brexit isn't going to happen still seem blissfully unaware (or in intense denial) that was an inevitable consequence of pandering to xenophobes. The nature of a victory in large part defines its consequences.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
Well I voted leave Alastair. It really was a struggle for me to decide. I did consider the arguments of friends who's views I respect (almost all for remain). I considered too the arguments I heard elsewhere - whoever made them. I gave most weight to my own judgement, a good deal of weight to the view of people I respect, and so on.
Would you suggest one should do otherwise?
Not complain when it goes to shit in entirely predictable ways derived from the nature of the campaign.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
And that's why you lost your referendum and Sam won his.
'His' referendum. The Pontius Pilate Leavers and their selective ownership of Brexit - 'I like that bit, it's mine, not the bad stuff though.'
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
Those Leavers who wail that soft Brexit isn't going to happen still seem blissfully unaware (or in intense denial) that was an inevitable consequence of pandering to xenophobes. The nature of a victory in large part defines its consequences.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
Those Remainers who have not moved on seem blissfully unaware not only of how deeply unpopular their pet European project is but also how out of touch they now sound.
Those Remainers who have not moved on seem blissfully unaware not only of how deeply unpopular their pet European project is but also how out of touch they now sound.
There are times in history where being in touch with the majority and being in touch with reality are mutually exclusive. This appears to be one such time.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
And that's why you lost your referendum and Sam won his.
'His' referendum. The Pontius Pilate Leavers and their selective ownership of Brexit - 'I like that bit, it's mine, not the bad stuff though.'
.. as opposed to pure as the driven snow Nats who get pocket money from Theresa May!
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
Those Leavers who wail that soft Brexit isn't going to happen still seem blissfully unaware (or in intense denial) that was an inevitable consequence of pandering to xenophobes. The nature of a victory in large part defines its consequences.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
Well I voted leave Alastair. It really was a struggle for me to decide. I did consider the arguments of friends who's views I respect (almost all for remain). I considered too the arguments I heard elsewhere - whoever made them. I gave most weight to my own judgement, a good deal of weight to the view of people I respect, and so on.
Would you suggest one should do otherwise?
Not complain when it goes to shit in entirely predictable ways derived from the nature of the campaign.
Sorry - you've lost me. I've not been complaining.
If what you're talking about is in the future then I'm pretty sure I'll complain like everyone else if I think mistakes have been made, but I certainly won't complain about 'how did we find ourselves here in the first place'.
you scared to name these hardcore SNPrs that prefer London Tory government to independence.
They know who they are! I think you might be the only person on here who genuinely wants Scottish independence
There are only me and TUD on here as far as I am aware and I don't think he supports the Tories.
Puir, wee Sammy's got a thistle up his bum 'cos I said I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage. He seems to have taken it very personally.
Not at all. I am genuinely puzzled. Nothing for me to take personally about it.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
So essentially you'd have been happy to campaign alongside Nick Griffin, EDL, Britain First and all the other scum to achieve Brexit?
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
What a ridiculous argument. Do you actually imagine that I should change my view on something because someone unpleasant agrees?
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
Don't give a gnat's testicle about your views, sport.
That's fair enough. You should probably still revisit the logic of your arguments though.
The same D- for reading comprehension as Sammy boy.
'I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage'
You should probably revisit your inclination to jump half arsed into other people's exchanges.
I see nothing to revise in my comments and everything for you to review in yours.
Bloody hell, Lab and Con basically switched around since May 2015. More opportunity for Mrs May to call an election?
I think that has to be the wrong call. If we had a May (in both senses) election we'd find ourselves with another GE in May 2022. As it is the government faces no real difficulties, and will go on to May 2020. A messed up early GE would lose 3 years, and the gain is the extra two years that are probably yours in the bag anyway.
With one year to go if it was painless to achieve it the I imagine she would go early.
I make a little money from betting on political uncertainty, and I hate the idea of Corbyn and co. being allowed to run a sweetshop, let alone the UK. So I'm massively adjusting my betting towards an early GE - however I still nearly make the 2020 election at evens some value.
I don't think she'll go this year, assuming no major hiccups in the next couple of weeks. After that it's negotiation time, with the (huge for the Tories) secondary issue of the boundaries vote due in I think Nov 2018.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
There is a simple answer, bake up into smaller units, Privatise, and deregulate. The Railways first, and then the NHS.
The railways were privatised and it didn't make a vast difference and there is unlikely to ever be popular support for privatising the NHS. A more effective long-term solution for healthcare and social care is for those who can afford it to be encouraged to take out insurance or else to increase NI
Bloody hell, Lab and Con basically switched around since May 2015. More opportunity for Mrs May to call an election?
I think that has to be the wrong call. If we had a May (in both senses) election we'd find ourselves with another GE in May 2022. As it is the government faces no real difficulties, and will go on to May 2020. A messed up early GE would lose 3 years, and the gain is the extra two years that are probably yours in the bag anyway.
With one year to go if it was painless to achieve it the I imagine she would go early.
I make a little money from betting on political uncertainty, and I hate the idea of Corbyn and co. being allowed to run a sweetshop, let alone the UK. So I'm massively adjusting my betting towards an early GE - however I still nearly make the 2020 election at evens some value.
I don't think she'll go this year, assuming no major hiccups in the next couple of weeks. After that it's negotiation time, with the (huge for the Tories) secondary issue of the boundaries vote due in I think Nov 2018.
Given there are no other numbers it is a moot point , it matters not a jot , once you take of all the punitive repayments , paying for Trident , paying for London infraastructure the numbers are garbage. In an independent Scotland they would remain garbage and be of no consequence. Every other small country in the world can be independent and run deficits etc , why would it be a concern for Scotland.
Malcolm here explains clearly why Ruth has been successful. The middle class scots are not convinced that the SNP are trustworthy to run the economy on their own.
Politics in Scotland which for many years has been a mess has had an outbreak on sense recently. Many of the SNPs questions of TM annoy the English but are mostly fair questions. Ruth has been notable in not opposing the SNP asking them.
Labour since it lost its MPs has become even less relevant to Scottish issues. Corbyn may bang on about the NHS but only from an English perspective. The Scottish NHS is run by Holyrood and Corbyn is not standing for a seat here as far as I know.
Ruth will not stand to be an MP as she is leader of the Tories in Scotland. When she hands over that role then she may stand and will probably be elected. She is not a list MSP but won Edinburgh Central on her own. Maybe Edinburgh West would be her best bet.
Those Remainers who have not moved on seem blissfully unaware not only of how deeply unpopular their pet European project is but also how out of touch they now sound.
There are times in history where being in touch with the majority and being in touch with reality are mutually exclusive. This appears to be one such time.
Says one of the band of British doomsayers who sees every news article through the prism of Merkel's greatness and European federal destiny. Do me a flavour.
Those Remainers who have not moved on seem blissfully unaware not only of how deeply unpopular their pet European project is but also how out of touch they now sound.
There are times in history where being in touch with the majority and being in touch with reality are mutually exclusive. This appears to be one such time.
Says one of the band of British doomsayers who sees every news article through the prism of Merkel's greatness and European federal destiny. Do me a flavour.
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
There is a simple answer, bake up into smaller units, Privatise, and deregulate. The Railways first, and then the NHS.
The railways were privatised and it didn't make a vast difference and there is unlikely to ever be popular support for privatising the NHS. A more effective long-term solution for healthcare and social care is for those who can afford it to be encouraged to take out insurance or else to increase NI
A bit of both carrot and stick is required.
Reversal of the benefit-in-kind taxation on company-provided health insurance is long overdue - we should be encouraging all those who can to cover their own healthcare. On the other hand, charges for GP appointments and a severe curtailing of elective and cosmetic surgery have to happen too - even if it only saves a drop in the ocean it's as much about the signal it sends that the NHS is a scarce resource. The biggest savings are to be found in getting elderly out of hospitals and into residential care in a timely fashion, but we all know that.
Railways, maybe allow franchises to run track, train and service - but most importantly put the risk of failure on the operator's shareholders not the government.
Given there are no other numbers it is a moot point , it matters not a jot , once you take of all the punitive repayments , paying for Trident , paying for London infraastructure the numbers are garbage. In an independent Scotland they would remain garbage and be of no consequence. Every other small country in the world can be independent and run deficits etc , why would it be a concern for Scotland.
Well, what are your criticisms then? From what I remember Scotland doesn't pay for London infrastructure and what are punititive repayments? Trident is one possible area yes. It wouldn't be if for the fact it is currently so high, I mean Scotland could cope of course but there would have to be large cuts or large borrowing in the short term. where I live has a large fiscal transfer from the SE and London and it is much higher than Scotland receives. I just don't complain about it, deride the figures and then make wild claims Wabout spending.
The PM, the Chancellor, the Home Secretary and other prominent Tory Remainers spent six years helping to create the environment in which Leave lies about hordes of Turks coming over to live here seemed credible. If you hear your country's leaders continually talk about immigration as a problem, the EU as the enemy and so on, you can't be blamed for believing them. Most voters listen only sporadically to political debate. David Cameron and George Osborne suddenly becoming champions of an institution they had previously derided must have seemed extraordinary and very dishonest to many, many people. The leaders of the Leave campaign knew they were lying (just as the leaders of Remain did, too), but you can't blame voters for believing them.
The PM, the Chancellor, the Home Secretary and other prominent Tory Remainers spent six years helping to create the environment in which Leave lies about hordes of Turks coming over to live here seemed credible. If you hear your country's leaders continually talk about immigration as a problem, the EU as the enemy and so on, you can't be blamed for believing them. Most voters listen only sporadically to political debate. David Cameron and George Osborne suddenly becoming champions of an institution they had previously derided must have seemed extraordinary and very dishonest to many, many people. The leaders of the Leave campaign knew they were lying (just as the leaders of Remain did, too), but you can't blame voters for believing them.
Comments
Do you think on current polling numbers the Scottish Tories will gain precisely nothing?
Poor Labour. They're just blundering about in a field of rakes. I can't think of anything we can point to that's going well for them. Though having said that, Lisa Nandy is making all the right noises recently. Started paying a lot more attention to her.
The Vote2012 website analyses each council area and gives various posters' estimates of seat changes .
BTW Don't believe for a moment that Theresa May has dealt with Scotland over Brexit.
Tories +150
Labour -190
Lib Dems +20
SNP +5
Independent/Green etc -15.
While many on here witter on about Scottish politics, the decline of Labour and the EU, in the real world:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38853709
The waiting list numbers are heading back to the bad old days of the mid noughties with nearly four million waiting for procedures. This is in spite of investment and more people being treated than ever before.
You can be as lean and efficient as you like but if the demand is unrelenting and increasing, you are fighting a losing battle. Strangely,I was listening to a rail expert on Sky debating the view that the rail franchise system was no longer fit for purpose. The problem, according to said expert, wasn't the service providers (more people travelling than ever before - 1.6 billion journeys per year) but the infrastructure which simply lacked the capacity to deal with the relentlessly increasing demand.
That's the problem whether it be the railways, NHS or adult social care - the infrastructures can no longer cope however effectively and efficiently they are used or managed. Instead of overhauling organisational structures, the problem is simply one of increasing capacity to meet demand. The problem is new railways, like new care homes and new hospitals, can't be produced overnight. Rather like 1 million new homes, it will take time.
The problem is, we should have started this years ago and for that all parties are responsible and at fault.
I agree. Demographic shifts are largely to blame. The plus side of that is that they won't persist forever (life expectancy can only go so high, unless you subscribe to the theory that within a few decades we'll be able to artificially extend it).
They are donkeys and would struggle to tie their shoelaces never mind run a country.
On the current course we will go bust with near certainty as will many of the countries of the western world. A massive dose of inflation might fix things, but that brings with it a lot of other problems.
Paradoxically the answer might be to spend, but to spend on things that spin out into opportunity. Spending an extra billion on the NHS just gets soaked up - spending 100billon would too.
I am wondering who would have to have supported Leave for me to rather we had remained, or even voted Remain, but there isn't anyone. SWP? Corbyn? No, if it got us over the line I dont care
If Farage campaigned in Scotland and got non voters last time to vote for Independence, Scottish people voting to leave the UK, you would rather stay ruled by us than have those votes set you free, amazing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Paris_(1814)
It's entirely hypothetical since Farage & UKIP have precisely FA influence either way, but you'll just have to stop being amazed that some people don't want to attain things on the backs of racists and xenophobes.
With one year to go if it was painless to achieve it the I imagine she would go early.
I make a little money from betting on political uncertainty, and I hate the idea of Corbyn and co. being allowed to run a sweetshop, let alone the UK. So I'm massively adjusting my betting towards an early GE - however I still nearly make the 2020 election at evens some value.
Nuclear weapons shouldn't be tested in major city centres at rush hour.. Oh one second Mad Mr O'Mad of a small town in Bangladesh agrees - I must be wrong!
REMAIN 48%
'I would vote against independence if it meant being dependent on support from his hero (after Enoch) Nigel Farage'
You should probably revisit your inclination to jump half arsed into other people's exchanges.
Whatever else you say about the SNP, and much can be said, they have to their credit done about as much as they can to distance the cause of Scottish independence from xenophobia, despite very obvious temptations to do otherwise.
You want to live in SNPland not Scotland, nothing wrong with that. I would rather Corbyn as PM and England out of the EU than Farage as PM with us in (although that couldn't happen as if UKIP had a majority, we would just leave as the power ultimately lies in Westminster)
https://twitter.com/bayrou/status/828205104020992000
Would you suggest one should do otherwise?
How many more seats would Con be close in - say within 5% of winning?
The Pontius Pilate Leavers and their selective ownership of Brexit - 'I like that bit, it's mine, not the bad stuff though.'
If what you're talking about is in the future then I'm pretty sure I'll complain like everyone else if I think mistakes have been made, but I certainly won't complain about 'how did we find ourselves here in the first place'.
I think the value is in 2019 (currently 8.2 on Betfair), 2020 at evs is good if you can get it too (Betfair currently 1.81).
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951
Malcolm here explains clearly why Ruth has been successful. The middle class scots are not convinced that the SNP are trustworthy to run the economy on their own.
Politics in Scotland which for many years has been a mess has had an outbreak on sense recently. Many of the SNPs questions of TM annoy the English but are mostly fair questions. Ruth has been notable in not opposing the SNP asking them.
Labour since it lost its MPs has become even less relevant to Scottish issues. Corbyn may bang on about the NHS but only from an English perspective. The Scottish NHS is run by Holyrood and Corbyn is not standing for a seat here as far as I know.
Ruth will not stand to be an MP as she is leader of the Tories in Scotland. When she hands over that role then she may stand and will probably be elected. She is not a list MSP but won Edinburgh Central on her own. Maybe Edinburgh West would be her best bet.
Strawberry!
https://youtu.be/miE-kwQM0mo
Reversal of the benefit-in-kind taxation on company-provided health insurance is long overdue - we should be encouraging all those who can to cover their own healthcare. On the other hand, charges for GP appointments and a severe curtailing of elective and cosmetic surgery have to happen too - even if it only saves a drop in the ocean it's as much about the signal it sends that the NHS is a scarce resource. The biggest savings are to be found in getting elderly out of hospitals and into residential care in a timely fashion, but we all know that.
Railways, maybe allow franchises to run track, train and service - but most importantly put the risk of failure on the operator's shareholders not the government.
It wouldn't be if for the fact it is currently so high, I mean Scotland could cope of course but there would have to be large cuts or large borrowing in the short term.
where I live has a large fiscal transfer from the SE and London and it is much higher than Scotland receives. I just don't complain about it, deride the figures and then make wild claims Wabout spending.