Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
would that be the same magnificent architecture Mrs Merkels relations blasted the shit out of ?
Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
would that be the same magnificent architecture Mrs Merkels relations blasted the shit out of ?
OT. I notice Milo Yiannopoulos is an ex student of your esteemed university and there's me thinking they were all lefty comedians
Im Manchester Roger
street cred
I was just trying to explain the lost years between Oxford Rd's 'Haze of Dope" and the simultaneous membership of 4 Conservative Clubs in Ludlow.
I think Milos Yiannopoulos might be the missing link
The Heads of States photo in Malta today shows just how the EU is a 'boys club' - Just three female Heads of States - Theresa May, Angela Merkel, and Beata Szydio of Poland.
Angela Merkel looked very down and worried.
As well indeed she might ..... it will be Germany largely picking up the tab for the giant hole left after Britain has departed the EU. (There's no one else with the dough.)
Right now I suspect Merkel's financial worries begin and end with Greece.
Guardian reporting tonight that Greece is on the brink
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
The Heads of States photo in Malta today shows just how the EU is a 'boys club' - Just three female Heads of States - Theresa May, Angela Merkel, and Beata Szydio of Poland.
Angela Merkel looked very down and worried.
As well indeed she might ..... it will be Germany largely picking up the tab for the giant hole left after Britain has departed the EU. (There's no one else with the dough.)
Right now I suspect Merkel's financial worries begin and end with Greece.
Guardian reporting tonight that Greece is on the brink
The Heads of States photo in Malta today shows just how the EU is a 'boys club' - Just three female Heads of States - Theresa May, Angela Merkel, and Beata Szydio of Poland.
Angela Merkel looked very down and worried.
As well indeed she might ..... it will be Germany largely picking up the tab for the giant hole left after Britain has departed the EU. (There's no one else with the dough.)
Right now I suspect Merkel's financial worries begin and end with Greece.
Guardian reporting tonight that Greece is on the brink
it's been on the brink for 8 years.
But this is the bible of the left, the Guardian reporting Greece on the brink
Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
DF is undoubtedly a PITA and needs trimming in parts but to get rid of it all would be unwise. I can guess what the conclusions of the review will be.
Edit: he doesn't like Basel various either. Again, they're flawed and Basel IV has the risk of driving tradition banks out of the debt business but I don't believe that rigour is where he's coming from. It's evil foreigners stuff at its basest.
The UK regulations on insurance are horrific - the amount of stuff I have to do to recommend a product or invite renewal of one - when 9 times out of ten all the customer wants is the cheapest.
Come May, Another half page has to be added telling cutomers how much they paid last year and that they may be able to get a cheaper policy if they shop around.
The Guardian reporting just now that the Labour leadership are in talks with the Greens and Lib Dems to dial down their campaigns to keep UKIP out
They must be seriously worried
Firstly, I don't think they should be worried. Secondly, when a party gives up campaigning, the voters give up on the party.
Indeed. These reports contradict other suggestions that Labour is increasingly confident re- Stoke.
They've tried to tap me for £5 to fund the campaign.
Do you draw any conclusion from that? I would not have thought Labour has any problem with funding its campaign!
An extra fiver never goes amiss.
I recall a funny Jon Stewart bit about campaign emails he was sent, having signed up to all of them, with some Democrat ones being almost apocalyptically dire, about the end is nigh almost, and then concluding with the amount it asked for to apparently bring hope...$5
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
But England & Wales itself isn't homogenous. In the South ex.London Labour does not have far it can fall and indeed polling implies it is near enough static.
The details of Yougov polling imply a Lab-Con swing of about 5-6% in the North, though it should be cautioned part of this swing is a move of a couple of percent Labour-Don't Know. Those Don't Knows may still turn out for Labour when push comes to shove.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Labour will hold both seats, and Corbyn will lead the party to a big defeat.
The Heads of States photo in Malta today shows just how the EU is a 'boys club' - Just three female Heads of States - Theresa May, Angela Merkel, and Beata Szydio of Poland.
Angela Merkel looked very down and worried.
As well indeed she might ..... it will be Germany largely picking up the tab for the giant hole left after Britain has departed the EU. (There's no one else with the dough.)
Right now I suspect Merkel's financial worries begin and end with Greece.
Oh Crikey - yes, of course, I'd forgotten that the next Greek crisis is but a few weeks away.
In the next three months she's likely to have to deal with Greece, a British A50, a second round Le Pen runoff and the Dutch elections/Geert Wilders.
And that's before whatever black swans are caused by Trump/Russia/Fundies/NeoNazis.
Geert's got more change than Le Pen. In the voice of Kevin Keegan, "I would love it, love it if Geert wins"
Geert is going to win, in that the PVV will top the polls in the Netherlands.
But the reason they top the polls is because its an insanely fragmented political landscape in the Netherlands. There are two parties (the CDA and the VVD) that occupy the space taken by Cameron's Conservatives. There are two parties - in parliament - that occupy the space that is taken by the Green Party (the Ecology Party and the The Party of the Animals).
The PVV will get approximately 30 seats at the General Election, which is c. 20% of the vote. But who will they ally with?
I wonder what the turnout will be in Copeland. I will be very surprised if it approaches the 82% seen at the Darlington by election in March 1983! That proved to be higher than at the 1979 and 1983 General Elections in the same seat.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Labour will hold both seats, and Corbyn will lead the party to a big defeat.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
I wonder what the turnout will be in Copeland. I will be very surprised if it approaches the 82% seen at the Darlington by election in March 1983! That proved to be higher than at the 1979 and 1983 General Elections in the same seat.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Postal votes at this time of year could be important
I wonder what the turnout will be in Copeland. I will be very surprised if it approaches the 82% seen at the Darlington by election in March 1983! That proved to be higher than at the 1979 and 1983 General Elections in the same seat.
I think it'll be closer to 29%...
In a marginal seat it should approach 60% given the high profile campaign.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Postal votes at this time of year could be important
Yes and also how far the Tories can squeeze the UKIP vote
I wonder how much the average British voter really knows about the supposedly warm, eco-friendly Green Party? Whether in fact they are actually closest to the Communists.
I don't want to sound like Big_G but Theresa May really does look isolated if not a little sad trying to boost her importance as an intermediary. When she offered to be a link to the White House she was told by one leader that she wasn't needed 'as they had Twitter'!
I wonder what the turnout will be in Copeland. I will be very surprised if it approaches the 82% seen at the Darlington by election in March 1983! That proved to be higher than at the 1979 and 1983 General Elections in the same seat.
I think it'll be closer to 29%...
In a marginal seat it should approach 60% given the high profile campaign.
I don't want to sound like Big_G but Theresa May really does look isolated if not a little sad trying to boost her importance as an intermediary. When she offered to be a link to the White House she was told by one leader that she wasn't needed 'as they had Twitter'!
I wonder how much the average British voter really knows about the supposedly warm, eco-friendly Green Party? Whether in fact they are actually closest to the Communists.
Patronising git.
The would-be Green councillor explained to me how he wanted a system of state surveillance, not to eradicate poverty, but to ensure your recycling was done properly.
I wonder what the turnout will be in Copeland. I will be very surprised if it approaches the 82% seen at the Darlington by election in March 1983! That proved to be higher than at the 1979 and 1983 General Elections in the same seat.
I think it'll be closer to 29%...
In a marginal seat it should approach 60% given the high profile campaign.
Turnout at the GE was 63.8%.
Realistically it isn't going to get near that.
60% would be the highest turnout since Winchester in 97, which was just a re-run.
Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
Grim and depressing on some level, but on the other hand I am optimistic that the future will be an improvement on the dystopian faragist nightmare you are envisioning, and there is also the opportunity for the EU to get on with greater integration without the brits moaning about it all the time. Everyones a winner.
I don't want to sound like Big_G but Theresa May really does look isolated if not a little sad trying to boost her importance as an intermediary. When she offered to be a link to the White House she was told by one leader that she wasn't needed 'as they had Twitter'!
Roger - you really do not have any humour do you - it was a tongue in cheek comment
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
I don't want to sound like Big_G but Theresa May really does look isolated if not a little sad trying to boost her importance as an intermediary. When she offered to be a link to the White House she was told by one leader that she wasn't needed 'as they had Twitter'!
Roger - you really do not have any humour do you - it was a tongue in cheek comment
I wouldn't engage. We must just let the grieving process take its course.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
But England & Wales itself isn't homogenous. In the South ex.London Labour does not have far it can fall and indeed polling implies it is near enough static.
The details of Yougov polling imply a Lab-Con swing of about 5-6% in the North, though it should be cautioned part of this swing is a move of a couple of percent Labour-Don't Know. Those Don't Knows may still turn out for Labour when push comes to shove.
Labour, with the Unions behind them are so strong. Even under Corbyn they will remain the 2nd party and will bounce back under a new leader. Don't forget that Corbyn is no worse off than Tories were versus Blair. We were told then that Tories were finished. You can't knock off the big 2. Unions and the Rich will see to that. Labour needs to lose Wales to Plaid or the Midlands cities to Tories to really go into decline. That needs a party to fill the gap. Not happening. UKIP are shot. Libs are too small country wide. Plaid are amateurs, as are Greens.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
I do hope this doesn't sound snide.
It seems to me that the operative phrase there is "the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world".
A large section of the UK's population have zero elegance and sophistication in their lives. That's enough reason for the EU to look like a club for wealthy people who care nothing for the lower orders.
And the reaction to the Leave vote added a great deal of weight to that assessment - elegance and sophistication resentful that the lower orders rejected their lovely club.
Isn't it depressing when you see the wonderful streets and harbour at Valletta that we'll soon be leaving the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world soon to be replaced by the dystopian nightmare of Trump/ Faragism that has been forced on us by a pack of ill educated morons.
I do hope this doesn't sound snide.
It seems to me that the operative phrase there is "the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world".
A large section of the UK's population have zero elegance and sophistication in their lives. That's enough reason for the EU to look like a club for wealthy people who care nothing for the lower orders.
And the reaction to the Leave vote added a great deal of weight to that assessment - elegance and sophistication resentful that the lower orders rejected their lovely club.
Good evening, everyone.
Plus Switzerland has plenty of elegance and sophistication outside the EU, the two are not mutually exclusive
Geert is going to win, in that the PVV will top the polls in the Netherlands.
But the reason they top the polls is because its an insanely fragmented political landscape in the Netherlands. There are two parties (the CDA and the VVD) that occupy the space taken by Cameron's Conservatives. There are two parties - in parliament - that occupy the space that is taken by the Green Party (the Ecology Party and the The Party of the Animals).
The PVV will get approximately 30 seats at the General Election, which is c. 20% of the vote. But who will they ally with?
Well, quite.
FPTP - set up the coalitions before the election, so that voters have a real choice.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
I think Corbyn will survive even if he loses both by elections, his supporters will blame any defeat on Brexit and non Corbynista candidates
Geert is going to win, in that the PVV will top the polls in the Netherlands.
But the reason they top the polls is because its an insanely fragmented political landscape in the Netherlands. There are two parties (the CDA and the VVD) that occupy the space taken by Cameron's Conservatives. There are two parties - in parliament - that occupy the space that is taken by the Green Party (the Ecology Party and the The Party of the Animals).
The PVV will get approximately 30 seats at the General Election, which is c. 20% of the vote. But who will they ally with?
Well, quite.
FPTP - set up the coalitions before the election, so that voters have a real choice.
FPTP truly is the best voting system known to man.
Geert is going to win, in that the PVV will top the polls in the Netherlands.
But the reason they top the polls is because its an insanely fragmented political landscape in the Netherlands. There are two parties (the CDA and the VVD) that occupy the space taken by Cameron's Conservatives. There are two parties - in parliament - that occupy the space that is taken by the Green Party (the Ecology Party and the The Party of the Animals).
The PVV will get approximately 30 seats at the General Election, which is c. 20% of the vote. But who will they ally with?
Well, quite.
FPTP - set up the coalitions before the election, so that voters have a real choice.
Hmmmm... Equally, though, I am unlikely to have a candidate with my exact views, so I'm likely faced with one of four unpalatable options. At least in a pure PR system like the Netherlands I can choose someone with pretty much my exact views as a vote repository.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
I think Corbyn will survive even if he loses both by elections, his supporters will blame any defeat on Brexit and non Corbynista candidates
excellent. And we need his successor to be McDonnell or Diane Abbot
I wonder how much the average British voter really knows about the supposedly warm, eco-friendly Green Party? Whether in fact they are actually closest to the Communists.
Patronising git.
The would-be Green councillor explained to me how he wanted a system of state surveillance, not to eradicate poverty, but to ensure your recycling was done properly.
Not a bad idea, provided you could hold up a bit of plastic to the camera and ask MI5 'Which bloody bin does this stuff go in?'
Hmmmm... Equally, though, I am unlikely to have a candidate with my exact views, so I'm likely faced with one of four unpalatable options. At least in a pure PR system like the Netherlands I can choose someone with pretty much my exact views as a vote repository.
Yes, exactly. It's a way of avoiding a decision - and then your chosen option either gets nowhere, or goes into coalition with the party you most hate.
The point is, when it comes to selecting a government, there is no way of avoiding actually making a choice. PR is a way of pretending that you don't have to make a choice, and leaving it to politicians to decide after the election by haggling in smoke-free rooms.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
I think Corbyn will survive even if he loses both by elections, his supporters will blame any defeat on Brexit and non Corbynista candidates
excellent. And we need his successor to be McDonnell or Diane Abbot
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
I think Corbyn will survive even if he loses both by elections, his supporters will blame any defeat on Brexit and non Corbynista candidates
excellent. And we need his successor to be McDonnell or Diane Abbot
Most likely it would be pre 2020 anyway
Jezza looking unlikely to survive. Hope he can though,
The hypocrisy of our EU friends, especially Hollande, is delightful:
But an animated Hollande made clear his dismay at Trump’s behaviour. He said: “It cannot be accepted that there is, through a certain number of statements by the president of the United States, pressure on what Europe ought to be or what it should not be."
This is the same President Hollande who is trying to tell the US what its visa policy should be!
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
Interesting. I've never felt that Labour will lose either by-election. You may be right and Copeland can turn blue.
Having phoned in Copeland it will be very tight, turnout will be key
Very interesting. Wonder if Libs will get a surge? That may well help Blues oop norf
Not too much sign of it so far but would certainly help the Tories yes if it comes from Labour, especially if the blues also get switchers from UKIP
Thanks for the update. A blue victory would be wonderful. Although not too much, we need to keep Jezza. A unlikely UKIP victory in Stoke would be great satisfaction as it means Labour have a competitor in Northern cities.
I think Corbyn will survive even if he loses both by elections, his supporters will blame any defeat on Brexit and non Corbynista candidates
excellent. And we need his successor to be McDonnell or Diane Abbot
Most likely it would be pre 2020 anyway
Jezza looking unlikely to survive. Hope he can though,
Giving his landslide reelection by the membership last September he is not going anywhere soon
Hmmmm... Equally, though, I am unlikely to have a candidate with my exact views, so I'm likely faced with one of four unpalatable options. At least in a pure PR system like the Netherlands I can choose someone with pretty much my exact views as a vote repository.
Yes, exactly. It's a way of avoiding a decision - and then your chosen option either gets nowhere, or goes into coalition with the party you most hate.
The point is, when it comes to selecting a government, there is no way of avoiding actually making a choice. PR is a way of pretending that you don't have to make a choice, and leaving it to politicians to decide after the election by haggling in smoke-free rooms.
The only question, really, is where the coalition is formed. And I think the idea that one is somehow inherently superior at representing the interests of the citizens, and improving their welfare, is false.
The only question, really, is where the coalition is formed. And I think the idea that one is somehow inherently superior at representing the interests of the citizens, and improving their welfare, is false.
I disagree, I think it is inherently superior to sort out an agreed, and hopefully coherent, programme in advance.
Hmmmm... Equally, though, I am unlikely to have a candidate with my exact views, so I'm likely faced with one of four unpalatable options. At least in a pure PR system like the Netherlands I can choose someone with pretty much my exact views as a vote repository.
Yes, exactly. It's a way of avoiding a decision - and then your chosen option either gets nowhere, or goes into coalition with the party you most hate.
The point is, when it comes to selecting a government, there is no way of avoiding actually making a choice. PR is a way of pretending that you don't have to make a choice, and leaving it to politicians to decide after the election by haggling in smoke-free rooms.
The only question, really, is where the coalition is formed. And I think the idea that one is somehow inherently superior at representing the interests of the citizens, and improving their welfare, is false.
I am not very knowledgeable about voting systems, but it always seems to me quite false to pretend that a candidate was 'voted for' by >50% of the electorate when no measure at all of which candidate was everyone's second or third favourite is even attempted.
Someone could gain 100% of second preferences and be knocked out in the first round because s/he was no-one's first choice.
What they all seem to end up with is someone whom no-one much wants.
At least FPTP gives you someone that some people actually want.
The only question, really, is where the coalition is formed. And I think the idea that one is somehow inherently superior at representing the interests of the citizens, and improving their welfare, is false.
I disagree, I think it is inherently superior to sort out an agreed, and hopefully coherent, programme in advance.
I don't want to sound like Big_G but Theresa May really does look isolated if not a little sad trying to boost her importance as an intermediary. When she offered to be a link to the White House she was told by one leader that she wasn't needed 'as they had Twitter'!
You do realise it's not May who looks stupid in that exchange don't you?
What sort of elegant and sophisticated club acts like silly spoilt children?
If you don't get it right the first time you can keep voting until you get it right.
Yet you wrote that the political landscape in the Netherlands is 'insanely fragmented'. You could equally have cited Ireland. Or Italy. Or Israel. Or Germany, where they have the flipside problem that they can't get rid of the government.
The latest Yougov poll implies a GB swing from Lab to Con of 3.7%. In Scotland, however, the swing is circa 9% - which would mean that the swing in England & Wales is just over 3%. To win Copeland the Tories need a swing of 3.25%!
But England & Wales itself isn't homogenous. In the South ex.London Labour does not have far it can fall and indeed polling implies it is near enough static.
The details of Yougov polling imply a Lab-Con swing of about 5-6% in the North, though it should be cautioned part of this swing is a move of a couple of percent Labour-Don't Know. Those Don't Knows may still turn out for Labour when push comes to shove.
Labour, with the Unions behind them are so strong. Even under Corbyn they will remain the 2nd party and will bounce back under a new leader. Don't forget that Corbyn is no worse off than Tories were versus Blair. We were told then that Tories were finished. You can't knock off the big 2. Unions and the Rich will see to that. Labour needs to lose Wales to Plaid or the Midlands cities to Tories to really go into decline. That needs a party to fill the gap. Not happening. UKIP are shot. Libs are too small country wide. Plaid are amateurs, as are Greens.
Labour and the Tories have enormous structural advantages. All the same, displacement from the top two can take place. You're right that at the moment there is no existential crisis for Labour but their situation is graver than that of the Tories was under Hague and IDS all the same.
The Tories were always going to come back at some point despite the 1993-2003 electoral failure for the simple reason that no other party at the time was capable to talking to the right-of-centre. That's not the case for Labour now: there are several parties who could peel chunks of Labour's vote. Only UKIP and the Lib Dems operate on a scale that could enable them to replace Labour and your analysis is right as to why they won't for the time being. Even so, the risk is there and if Labour continues to look irrelevant and if one of the other parties can get their act together, the opportunity is there.
The resisters had better pause for long enough to ask why anybody would approve of what Trump is doing. If they can’t or won’t, they’ll find themselves resisting for eight years and not just four.
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5..4..3..2..1..Trumpster tweets about extreme vetting*.
*Probably miss the bit out about how his extreme vetting wouldn't have stopped this.
Most of Europe has moved on from those dark days.
For a moment I thought we'd descended further into a Trumpian dystopia....
I think Milos Yiannopoulos might be the missing link
"Only party X can stop party Y here" Its the oldest game in town.
Come May, Another half page has to be added telling cutomers how much they paid last year and that they may be able to get a cheaper policy if they shop around.
I recall a funny Jon Stewart bit about campaign emails he was sent, having signed up to all of them, with some Democrat ones being almost apocalyptically dire, about the end is nigh almost, and then concluding with the amount it asked for to apparently bring hope...$5
The details of Yougov polling imply a Lab-Con swing of about 5-6% in the North, though it should be cautioned part of this swing is a move of a couple of percent Labour-Don't Know. Those Don't Knows may still turn out for Labour when push comes to shove.
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/827623110824304642
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1402631/People-Cardiff-boo-Theresa-calling-racist-Cardiff.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-barack-obama-president-white-house-poll-public-policy-polling-muslim-ban-obamacare-a7560256.html?cmpid=facebook-post
https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/827633764176011269
Did I get a full house?
Realistically it isn't going to get near that.
The historical average is ~40%
LibDem Propaganda!Get well soon, Mike!It seems to me that the operative phrase there is "the most elegant and sophisticated club in the world".
A large section of the UK's population have zero elegance and sophistication in their lives. That's enough reason for the EU to look like a club for wealthy people who care nothing for the lower orders.
And the reaction to the Leave vote added a great deal of weight to that assessment - elegance and sophistication resentful that the lower orders rejected their lovely club.
Good evening, everyone.
FPTP - set up the coalitions before the election, so that voters have a real choice.
The point is, when it comes to selecting a government, there is no way of avoiding actually making a choice. PR is a way of pretending that you don't have to make a choice, and leaving it to politicians to decide after the election by haggling in smoke-free rooms.
Indeed, had Obama or Hillary won, the Republicans would be heading for enormous House and Senate leads in 2018.
But an animated Hollande made clear his dismay at Trump’s behaviour. He said: “It cannot be accepted that there is, through a certain number of statements by the president of the United States, pressure on what Europe ought to be or what it should not be."
This is the same President Hollande who is trying to tell the US what its visa policy should be!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/03/eu-leaders-trump-may-attempt-act-bridge-malta-summit
Such an Alliance would mean the Lib Dems have no hope, would the Tories lay down in response?
Someone could gain 100% of second preferences and be knocked out in the first round because s/he was no-one's first choice.
What they all seem to end up with is someone whom no-one much wants.
At least FPTP gives you someone that some people actually want.
What sort of elegant and sophisticated club acts like silly spoilt children?
If you don't get it right the first time you can keep voting until you get it right.
As a fan of the EU you should love that.
The Tories were always going to come back at some point despite the 1993-2003 electoral failure for the simple reason that no other party at the time was capable to talking to the right-of-centre. That's not the case for Labour now: there are several parties who could peel chunks of Labour's vote. Only UKIP and the Lib Dems operate on a scale that could enable them to replace Labour and your analysis is right as to why they won't for the time being. Even so, the risk is there and if Labour continues to look irrelevant and if one of the other parties can get their act together, the opportunity is there.
Brexit --> Trump --> end of Paris Treaty ---> climate change
QED
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/protesters-call-supporters-of-trumps-travel-ban-idiots-and-bigots-theyre-wrong/2017/02/03/9c0de5ba-e99d-11e6-bf6f-301b6b443624_story.html?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.2ea1cdf69aa9
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