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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 an
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 and the latest PB cartoon
Ladbrokes have put up a market on Donald Trump no to visit the UK before the end of 2017. I took the 5/1 which I thought was a good price, especially in the light of William Hill offering 4/6 on Trump not to make a state visit in 2017, William Hill are offering 11/10 that a state visit will take place. Whilst the terms aren’t quite the same, I’m prepared to stake money on the 5/1 for the following reasons.
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My point is that "oh, everyone lies" is simply not true
I don't like this blurring of state visits with party politics.
http://www.copelandlabour.org.uk/nuclear
To be fair, I didn't understand the last one with a May/Trump theme posted in a header either.
Of what form, I'm not sure, but it's very interesting.
Take both sides of the bet.
72% books don't come along very often.
@rcs1000 Yes the Bulgaria being out of the EU bit was my reason for it being the worst article ever! What a clanger
The fact I tipped him at 200/1 as next Labour leader in a thread header is just mere coincidence.
Both Trump and May want a visit and it has been announced for this year.
It will take place.
Slipping in under the radar whilst everyone screams about you-know-who. Although we have been here so many times before that I dare say that the can will be kicked down the road at the last minute yet again.
Most probably, anyway...
I'm on at 100/1.
It's possible he just visits, without it being a state visit, but not that justifies that sort of spread.
Trump said he won because of Brexit.
Brexit came about because Dave won a majority in 2015.
Ed was instrumental to Dave managing to win.
Ergo if Ed has not stood for the leadership, Trump may not have happened.
True Fact. Bigly.
They clearly mean to say non-eurozone.
I remember in the early to mid 2000s G W Bush had a state visit which had huge protests surrounding it. Indeed one newspaper claimed that the Bush security team wanted to have two Apache helicopters flying 24 hours a day near the palace to repel any interlopers. The Blair government or the palace declined the Apache request.
I think some people get a bit intense and OTT, however it is good that we live in a country where you can protest and express your distaste for whatever cause.
If he visits unofficially, they both lose I think?
I could see Ed Miliband challenging Corbyn, then stepping down in 2019 having sorted out a succesor.
It's not a watertight arb.
eg, it's not impossible the state visit gets cancelled, but he comes over on holiday to play golf for a bit at some point this year.
Wouldn't it have been great to have that accumulator on.
"I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had
"The rightwing smear against Ed Miliband angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration"
Ed is a good bet for next Labour leader, but a terrible bet for next PM in my view.
So what? Lots of people here really don't like Trump or his views.
We know this. We've been here before.
I very much doubt an invitation by HMQ to a Trump state visit will be rescinded, (a) She’s above such parochial shenanigans and (b) she’s hosted far worse than Donald Trump. - IIRC*, President Eisenhower cancelled a State visit due to problems at home, that’s the only reason I can foresee, for it not going ahead.
* What a superb TV series ‘The Crown’ is on Netflix, just watched Lord Salisbury get a dressing down from nanny, such addictive viewing we’ve rationed it to make it last longer.
In fact, since the war, this has happened only twice. Hague achieved it in 2001 with a small increase.
Labour in 2015 won 30.4% against 29% in 2010 when it lost. This despite getting massacred in Scotland.
The 1.4% increase in vote share remains the biggest increase by any party in the election after it lost. Of course, in England, the increase was even more.
Because the margin was narrow, there's something for everyone there in a pet theory for explaining away those extra 600,000 switched votes, but the bigger question is how Remain went from 65:35 polling to a 52:48 loss inside 9 months.
It will be interesting to see Trump's next move.
And Mrs Thatcher and her 8.1% increase in 1979 after losing the October 1974 general election says hello.
IMO, like Hague, he got the job too soon.
I don't think the Labour party could survive another period of Ed Miliband's leadership.
And yes the Tory increase was piss poor, we only had a majority to console ourselves with
Mind you he was better than Corbyn or Gordon Brown.
I think the current state of politics can all be traced back to Blair changing the voting system for European elections, which enabled UKIP to get a foothold. Farage would probably never have won a FPTP seat in the European Parliament yet alone Westminster. This change was done by Blair because he felt so threatened by a potential Conservative resurgence that did not really start until 2005. The system in Scotland allowed the SNP to become the principle party after only a few parliamentary elections. The irony was Labour were warned by the Tories about the potential consequences on both accounts and Labour did it anyway, so Blair has Brexit and Scottish nationalism to add to the charge sheet of screw-ups.
I would still vote Labour if a reasonable leader came along but I wonder if they can get something even worse than Corbyn? That surely must be the challenge!
Social and broadcast media has gone absolutely crazy over the last 24 hours. Most of this is the usual suspects, but it's been given more credence by a few tweets from Ruth Davidson and a few Tory MPs that suggests the nation is united in outrage.
It isn't. But you can see why some true believers are now getting excited and dipping their toes in the water, even if £19 is small beer.
I barely work out a fifth of my bets all by myself. The vast majority are placed off the back of authoritative testing of the arguments and odds by those I respect on here.
"McCain says he's uncomfortable with a Muslim president but feels Mitt Romney's Mormonism is a non-issue"
http://www.beliefnet.com/news/politics/2007/06/john-mccain-constitution-established-a-christian-nation.aspx
You don't have to be an 'Islamist pal' to be against torture.
So, that's OK then...
Splendid display of straw clutching.