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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose
By far the most recognised UKIP politician is the leader, Nigel Farage, and clearly he’s the one who you’d think would have the best chance of becoming an MP at GE2015.
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If I was trying to get some snooping code in widespread use I'd probably go for a larger target like the operating system or graphics libraries, as there are fewer paranoid eyes on those per line of code.
PS Scuse the accidental FPT repaste.
Good point on Roger Gale. A CON seat where the incumbent is stepping down are always the best possibilities for change.
Interesting view from the French right. The dangers of never asking the plebiscite for positive affirmation for change.
Bah! You're no fun!
Night all.
Reasons for voting UKIP:
Unhappy with usual party: 83
Unhappy with all main parties: 75
Party you'd like to win next GE: 58
Best Candidate locally: 46
Tactically to stop another party: 40
Best leader nationally: 35
By contrast both Lib Dems (85) and Con (77) thought they had the best local candidate, and Con (78) the best leader nationally.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-tables.pdf
http://youtu.be/Bj7J7vXCf5w
Otherwise I'd be inclined to agree with EiT re local identity and take into account the ability to do the campaigning, as referred to by SO.
Let us Unite at that report.
If Farage's aim is simply to become an MP then there may be better seats. To cause chaos in the enemy ranks and maximise the likelihood of acheiving his central policy aim then he has to kill Dave (not literally!). Going for Witney would certainly puthim front and centre in the news and make a 'no TV debate' decision from Dave look very girly.
Any French speakers on here that can translate what was being shouted?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHJistBOCu8&feature=youtu.be
Let's hope everything goes smoothly for the Duchess of Cambridge.
HM Queen Victoria mother of HRH The Prince of Wales (later Edward VII) father of The Duke of York (later George V) father of HH Prince Edward of York (later Edward VIII).
Let's hope nurses and midwives don't decide that now would be a good time to go on strike!
One of the two Thanets is the obvious candidate.
The constituencies are near Ashford for fast Eurostar links to Brussels and London; there is strong local organisation (the kippers took all before them in May); Farage has local knowledge and exposure (he fought Thanet South in 2005); the seats complement his European Parliament seat; and there is strong financial support present (Alan Bone, the notorious UKIP donor, is a Thanet man).
Of the two Thanet seats the more likely is Thanet South as Roger Gale's seat (Thanet North) has a 52% majority to overturn whereas South was Labour through the Blair years and could act more like a three way marginal. Also the first time incumbent, Laura Sandys is a noted Europhile and therefore a good target for Farage,
Clarence House:
"Her Royal Highness The Duchess of Cambridge has been admitted this morning to St Mary's Hospital, Paddington, London, in the early stages of labour.
The Duchess travelled by car from Kensington Palace to the Lindo Wing at St Mary's Hospital with The Duke of Cambridge."
Snook in the back at 6am....
"Giving Birth Here"
Can you explain what was appalling about it?
What is unreasonable about hoping that David Cameron's constant citing of the fact that he is a father be wiped from our TV screens by an event that will hopefully bring the country together?
More rational folk than you might conclude that your comments about Blair and his son are slightly more appalling.
I wonder how many folk on here will pull you up on it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23395050
Sounds tricky:
He was found drunk and incapable in the street - fact
he was underage - fact
as he was underage, he obtained the alcohol illegally - fact
the alcohol was provided by:
a - his parents
b- his friends
c- from either a supermarket or off license without checks, i.e. dodgy
d- obtained as above using a forged id card
IMV Euan was let down by his mates as iirc he was out celebrating his GCSEs.
As a pub goer of many years. You look after your mates when they are the worse for wear.
He should be on a golf course or polo field.
This royal birth is becoming distinctly suburban.
I am highly dubious about the net-nanny legislation. There are several issues that have been mentioned on here before, from the availability of software to circumvent the blocks, to issues of what constitutes pornography, to management issues (how can a website know it is blocked, and get the block removed?)
According to the Beeb, the worst sites are not on the search engines, and are passed around by word-of-mouth. Any filtering system would either have to be automatic (and therefore prone to false-positives) or very reactive.
Such talk has already had an effect in the US:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/19/smut_lovers_in_dirty_protest_over_tumblr_pornageddon/
I wonder if Miliband will back the legislation, given his 'as a father' concerns:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2349927/Miliband-reveals-fears-sons-aged-access-porn-smartphones.html
You will be able to work this out by consulting the gender balance in future voting intention polls.
"Ed Miliband has spoken of his worries that his two boys will stumble across hard core porn on the internet.
The Labour leader said that ‘like any parent’ he was concerned about how easy it is for Daniel, four, and 2-year-old Sam to see violent adult images on mobile phones or computers.
Labour supports the Daily Mail in its campaign for an automatic block – a stance reiterated by Mr Miliband last night."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2349927/Miliband-reveals-fears-sons-aged-access-porn-smartphones.html#ixzz2Zl608ZUh
Remember how tim ridiculed that at the time, posting ceaselessly on the topic?
No, neither do I.
On the subject of the Royal Baby - I'm hoping for a quick and safe delivery so we can all survive the Witchall Witterings about it.
It's been ages since we had a new baby - it will of course be beautiful, and look nothing like Churchill :^ )
RT @keirshiels: On Her Majesty's Cervix #royalbaby < LOL
I presume that sites that titillate needlessly, and use scantily clad ladies to lure in the punters, will also be on the list?
Starting with the Daily Mail.
My constituency of Hornchurch & Upminster could be a runner, as Sean F says.
If its requiring ISPs to re-ask existing customers if they want to keep their current settings or new customers what they want - fine.
Frankly, I think he's barking up entirely the wrong tree - those who participate in this stuff know where to go and pass between themselves. There used to be seach engines like Lycos who's selling point was that they didn't censor the results - I've no idea if that's still the case, I assume there are others that will offer this either overtly or covertly.
I've never ever tripped across child porn - and haven't seen porn by accident on the net for years and years.
I get the impression Cameron is a rather protective and small-c conservative dad. This is just another manifestation of it - like wanting to ban Playboy bunny kids t-shirts. I imagine many dads will share his views. I gather EdM isn't happy about it either.
As an aside - a few years ago, after it was mentioned many times in the press as 'being easy', I tried to find websites that would tell me how to build a fertalizer bomb - I failed. Now my Google Fu isn't exactly black belt but I gave it my best shot and results there came none. I assume the major search engines block these as a default.
This is an absurd idea.
A general block on gambling sites for example may well block this site simply because it has "betting" in the title .
But then there are the overtly political things that could be done - as a slightly ridiculous example, blocking websites of rival political parties to anyone but people who sign up for that party. And those people are on a list the government has access to.
If this goes through, I can see the remit being extended within a couple of years to cover other areas the 'think of the children!' reactionary idiots will deem necessary.
That's not to say it shouldn't happen - just that it'll be difficult and somewhat change the nature of the 'net.
Can someone invent a filter to block politicians who tell us about their children please.
(And yes PB Tories I know that Labour and Lib Dem politicians will trail along haplessly with this charade)
Kate Burley or Nicholas Witchall
Duchess save us !!!!!!!!!!
I remain unconvinced of the merits of abolishing corroboration. The problems far outweigh the supposed benefits.
We know the answer.....
If its a boy, how about Joe Froome Windsor ?
As to Farage's seat - Not sure where really, could be any one of about 9...
Mr. Senior, I entirely agree. Quite some time ago I really like donline personality tests and quizzes (from 'serious' ones like Myers-Briggs to Fantasy RPG CLass Test silliness [I'm a Psionic Striker, incidentally]). One of them tripped an anti-adult material filter. I had it disabled, and even after doing the test I had no idea what caused the block. There were no pictures and I don't think there were any references to adult stuff (violence/sex, etc).
My impression reading the letter from leaked ISP letter last week was that the government is just "asking" them to do things a certain way. It looked to me like the idea is just to work by applying informal pressure on them, which has the advantage of cutting parliament (and the LibDems?) out of the loop. Consumers would be technically free to choose a non-compliant provider, but the only choices they'll have in practice will be part of the ministerially-compliant cartel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-chip
What Farage needs is a retiring "absentee" Tory MP.....last time the Guardian checked Edward Leigh had the poorest non-ministerial voting record:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2011/sep/08/reality-check-britain-s-laziest-mp
At 65 in 2015, will he run again?
Ken Clarke ?
Britain's national security will be increasingly dependent on ability to attack and defend networks. Doing this will require young people skilled in network security (both offence and defence), starting at an early age. I can't think of any better way to create a generation of hackers than putting a bunch of network security measures between 14-year-old boys and their porn.
Bless. On the @guardian homepage, click the 'Republican' button to make all their royal coverage disappear pic.twitter.com/0NoViO74UA
Voters want something different in an MP than an MEP.
Of course after UKIP's stunning Mcbreakthrough, it has to be a Scottish seat.
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kenneth Clarke 27,470 51.2 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Karrar Khan 11,659 21.7 +4.4
Labour Andrew Clayworth 11,128 20.7 −6.7
UKIP Matthew Faithfull 2,179 4.1 +1.6
Green Richard Mallender 1,251 2.3 −1.2
Majority 15,811 29.5
Turnout 53,687 73.6 +3.6
Conservative hold Swing -0.6
Toby Harnden @tobyharnden
Shouldn't this be a Venn diagram? MT @FelicityMorse: @BuzzFeedUK I love you. Today, for your royal baby pie chart. pic.twitter.com/76IaBiNgR5
http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/bexley/10561888._/
Old 'Times Guide' mini biogs of MPs and candidates can be curious. Lab MP (1929) 'He has been a cowboy, a gold prospector and a journalist'
If you want blame someone for the incessant #RoyalBaby coverage, try Oliver Cromwell. He was given a very simple task and he ballsed it up.
You can taste the bitterness..
"which of these ensures the NHS has sound finances & delivers good value for money?" Con 23% Lab 27% LD 6% None 29% Don't know 14% #YouGov