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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s New American Revolution
Inaugurations set the tone for a presidency and Trump undoubtedly set his yesterday: life will be different – for DC, for Europe, for China and for the world. In an extraordinarily pugnacious address, which might have been lifted direct from his campaign rallies, Trump served notice that the Old Order is dead as far as he is concerned. There will be no more Beltway politics, benefitting lobbyists and politicians at the expense of the public; no more Pax Americana, underwriting the global order.
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As Robert Fisk noted in Indie the other day, the middle east has a habit of reaching out and grabbing a POTUS by the neck, whether they want it or not.
* Putin invades one of the Baltic states, using the deniable techniques he's used before.
* The Baltic state is a NATO member.
* It asks us for help.
* Trump refuses.
What do we do?
Oh look, my coat!
Their meeting will be interesting.......Trump State visit before the end of the year?
Breaking the glass ceiling and something about better together.
The problem with the ceiling was that a) we've just smashed one of those by electing a non-white man to POTUS, so that will do for now thank you very much and, b) the election was framed on an entirely different question, more along the lines of the famous - do you feel better today than you did four years ago?
Titters
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-oval-office-makeover-233954
Along with golden curtains.....
Remember in 1982 the Americans had a plan to give the Falklands to Argentina......
Hoping no one would call you on made up facts were you? Or going to surprise me with a solar irradiance graph going back that far?
Get a clue here the science of climate is not settled . If it were people could create a computer model that would predict the future plus or minus a few percent. Not the several hundred percent errors current models have.
Climate change is happening, it will always happen
are we contributing to it probably
are we going into a warm spell or an ice age, no one has any real fucking idea its just a guess
can we stop it, no probably not regardless of what we do
take your cult and shove it
And didn't succeed. Only Hitler directly involved the US in the European war, by declaring war on the US.......
http://www.snopes.com/white-house-web-site-trump-changes/
Airports are mostly state, municipally or privately owned. Some share their runways with an sir force base and many were originally built by the military.
I am sorry I am not convinced that a 3% less bright sun will make much difference against a 500% increase in co2 if what the doom mongers tell us about that evil gas are right.
The sun was not signifigantly cooler, co2 was signifigantly higher
Belgium Defence Spending % GDP: 0.85% - beaten only by Luxembourg on 0.44% vs target 2%
Equipment share - Belgium 2.17% vs Nato target 20%
so lets do the rough maths
current co2 around 350
carboniferous co2 around 1800 call it 1400 difference, 2 degrees per 100ppm extra = a temperatur rise of 28 degrees at 2 degrees per 100
sun now = 100 %
carboniferous = 97%
therefore at 0.1degrees per 0.05 percent
current = -0.0%
carboniferous - 6 degrees
therefore by deduction the average carboniferous global temp should have be 22 degrees hotter
current average global temp for last year 14 degrees or so
which means average global temp for the carboniferous should be about 36 degrees
hmm what were the average temperatures of the earth then
oh 20 degrees in the early part of the carboniferous decreasing to 12 degrees in the late carboniferous.
Anything seem a little out of joint here?
In addition did you know that only two periods of earths history have had co2 levels less than 400 ppm
the late carboniferous where co2 levels dropped down to around todays levels and our current period
during all that time we havent turned into venus and even when the co2 levels were 1800 the total average heat was still only 6 degrees higher
There are only two periods in history as well where global temperatures were as low as today
the late carboniferous and the ordovcian
We have already mentioned the co2 levels in the carboniferous, the ordovician period however had co2 levels ranging from around 4000 to as high as 4500ppm and was only 100 million years before the carboniferous so the sun was only about 1% less bright
As I said when climate "scientists" can produce a model that gets things right within a 5 to 10% error over 20 years then I will believe they know what the hell they are talking about and the science is settled. Current models have so far been out by upto 400% on their predictions
what I do question is how much of current climate change is down to us, how much we can do to stop it and even whether on the whole it will even be detrimental if it did occur, yes there would be losers but there would also be winners and on balance I am not convinced it wouldnt be positive on the whole.
However sadly my suspicion is we are about to head into another ice age in any case we are certainly overdue
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Reuben_James_(DD-245)
Car factory shutting down? He'll hand them a big contract to make military jeeps or something.
Building that wall - maybe he will force contractors to use labour from swing states with high unemployment. He won't care if it costs extra... And he may well stiff them on the bill anyway.
Poor people moaning about losing health insurance? Maybe give to them on the requirement of weekly/monthly drugs tests...
Pharmaceutical prices... He is America first. He won't be happy drugs are cheaper in Europe or Mexico. Maybe all US companies have to commit to having lower prices in US and similarly high prices elsewhere...
Maybe a well timed fbi investigation into some opponents? I don't know whether that's possible... But Trump certainly likes throwing around allegations... And the right director might think it wise to investigate.
All of these things would probably see short term benefits for him politically and could maybe get him through a re election.
And we will see minority voter suppression attempts too. With voter rights act essentially gutted i can't imagine what the republicans will try... But probably won't just be voter ID. Maybe English tests? Maybe just massively reduced poll resources in certain key democratic areas/cities.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/democrats-trump-administration-wilderness-comeback-revival-214650
I don't even see odds for him on Paddy Power
A good article David, as usual. It will be fascinating to see what happens in the next couple of years, the new President didn't hold back in his inauguration speech, so the question now is what can he deliver in the next couple of years before the midterms. He has his own party controlling Congress, so can throw them some red meat on things like healthcare reform, tax cuts and SC judge nominations to get things he wants through, such as infrastructure building and trade deal renegotiations.
But as David said, he has less than two years until those mid-terms, so he needs to avoid the mistakes made by many of his predecessors of not moving quickly enough on key areas of legislation. This is somewhere his business experience should help him is knowing that quick wins are important - he wants to see unemployment numbers down quickly and key announcements on manufacturing jobs being reshored.
The sticking points will be issues like pharmaceutical monopoly reforms and military spending programmes, where the interests of the entrenched position are very well represented on Capitol Hill. If he really wants to drain the swamp he might try and get term limits in Congress, but he'll need an awful lot of political capital for that one!
I say good luck to him, right now he has the benefit of the doubt but let's see how long that lasts.
Trump wants to increase military spening doesn't he? I don't think he will run into any entrenched problems there... I'm sure the beltway lobbyists will be very happy to make suggestions.
Trump wants to increase military capability, as opposed to military spending. He will argue that the failure to understand the difference between these concepts among those in Washington is behind a lot of the problems. He's already criticised the cost of his own replacement executive jet, and the long running saga that is the F35 program, currently $130bn (with a B ) over budget.
I agree - and this applies to the UK too post Brexit. Trump is spot on.
Thank goodness the warmonger HRC wasn't inaugurated yesterday.
Suspect Sandpit is right, too, about the usefulness of official unemployment statistics. It’s a bit like here, isn’t it with the likes of ‘self-employed’ delivery drivers not counted, although they are often on pitiful ‘wages’.
And how ironic that would be
Starbucks donated a pile of money to Hillary as did the owners... Mind you, I very much doubt that Bank of America was full of Trumpistas either (see Robert's comments on international trade).
"This Act was passed for security purposes, and not for the purposes for which, apparently, it is now sought to be used. To use Acts of Parliament, passed for particular purposes during war, in times when the war is past, except that technically a state of war exists, tends to turn law-abiding subjects into lawbreakers, which is a most undesirable state of affairs. Further, in this country we have always prided ourselves on the good feeling that exists between the police and the public and such action tends to make the people resentful of the acts of the police and inclines them to obstruct the police instead of to assist them."
At that point - probably with 15 years - you will see a real collapse in the price of oil.
An interesting aside - I was discussing this future with a classic progressive some little while ago. She was horrified by the idea that Saudi Arabia would collapse in wealth - kept suggesting ways that we should give them money. When I got down to root causes, it was the idea that the West would benefit(**) and that a non-Western nation would not, that she found appalling.
(*) This is an example of real "trickle down" effects - first world designs, in all areas of technology, filter down to the rest of the world. The third-world is behind, yes, but they are using what we had a decade or 2 back.
(**) Non-oil producing third world nations get screwed over by the oil prices when they jump, of course...
WRT the UK. I agree. The Tories can currently do what they like, limited only by their internal contradictions and small majority. Won't last forever, but they can do a lot of hsrm whilst it lasts.
https://web.archive.org/web/20100724033906/http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/history/taxhis1.htm
It seems to be a constant theme with the educated left, especially the Guardianistas, they they feel they are beset by too many of the great unwashed who don't properly appreciate how evil the Tories are and how they should be using their vote.... alternatively maybe they do understand it and either want it, or at the very least see it as the worst of two evils.
Russia, the only other major European power, then becomes a potential ally, but one should always remember to handle the bear with care.
I hope Downing Street has a good collection of long spoons. Britain is going to need them.
We could offer Donald a golf course on the Mall with a very fine club house......
Luckily there are serious people who rely on science and measurements to continually refine what is actually happening.
Luckily also there are governments that take notice of the science.
"As Mr Trump ponders pulling out of the UN climate deal, China, India, Germany, the EU and the UK have all reaffirmed their promise to curb CO2 emissions."
"As Mr Trump promises to boost jobs by scrapping President Obama's clean energy plans, China is pushing on with a $361bn (£293bn) investment in renewable energy by 2020."
She really admires Mrs May and has completed her long trek from Labour to Tory. It only took 80 years. Congratulations Messrs Brown, Miliband and Corbyn, you have achieved something I would have hitherto thought impossible.
The unemployment figure is not meaningless... I think it's beyond a shadow of a doubt that the figure correctly shows Obama has massively reduced unemployment since the recession. That said... You're right that it's complicated with people anting more hours/working part time etc...
When push comes to shove... I think Trump will spend more on military. He is talking about reversing defence cuts and Congress will push him. That said... Will be very funny to see him order a new fighter plane and then just not pay for it!
The question is whether Labour's brand in England is being as comprehensively smashed as it was in Scotland.
The next few opinion polls might make interesting reading, as might the forthcoming by-election results - which in normal times are two easy Labour holds.
Herdson's last paragraph is laughable in many ways:
1. For that reason, I expect Trump to lose in 2020: Herdson never expected him to win in the first place.
2. He only just won this year against a very weak Democrat opponent: Yeh, the opponent everybody, including Herdson, said could never lose.
It may be a bumpy ride, but no one can tell the future: 2016 was the year when the American and World progressive elite knew that the world was theirs for the foreseeable future. They were wrong, and now all around the world, many things are up for grabs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_tactics