We probably need to create a taxonomy of Leavers. I do agree that there's a tranche that actively want the EU to fall apart, for what reason, I cannot fathom.
They are few, and mirrored by those Remainers who implore God for plague and pestilence across our Leave-voting land.
I'd be happy to see the EU become far more democratic, but hey, not my concern - we're off out. Those idiot EUrocrats who mismanaged things to the point where the second largest member left are still in place, seemingly having learned nothing. There needs to be a Night of the Long Knives that moves them out of their cushy posts. If our leaving gives some ammunition to help make that change occur, I think Europe would be better for it.. But I wouldn't wish a drop on the EU's collective economies though.
To adapt Sherlock Holmes: we see but we do not observe. This prime minister is not a great exponent of euphemism, metaphor and rhetorical trope. Instinctively, she says what she means. The natural response of a political and media class raised on spin, dog-whistles and devious code is to look for hidden meaning or the absence of any meaning at all.
When May says that “Brexit means Brexit”, it feels like a dereliction of cryptographic duty to take her at face value. Yet her method is, and has always been, to disclose her intentions straightforwardly but according to her own timetable. As she reportedly says to allies: “I don’t care if people think I’m stupid for a bit.”
I have to say that it's quite amusing to see Remainers so in favour of NATO now, when in the past they have been so dismissive of it and claimed that it was the EU that kept the peace.
That article says explicitly that NATO has played a significant role in keeping peace in Europe.
No.
NATO has done sterling work in enforcing peace in Europe
The author's point is that Nato has enforced peace while the EU has kept it.....
Against whom? Feels to me like the implication there is that NATO was to defend against the Russians, and the EEC/EC/EU to economically restrain the Germans.
Given the geopolitics of about 1947-8 onwards I don't think that was a realistic concern (all Western European countries were concerned about Russia ) and a counter history might have had a looser regional trading bloc in Europe, combined with common challenges being discussed in the Council of Europe.
Countries could have pegged / unpegged their currencies to the DM, as they saw fit.
Their risks are really around the content of any future treaty (we talked about corporate tax harmonisation a couple of days ago). Post Lisbon and all the ensuing shenanigans there has been little appetite for a new treaty - I wonder if that will change post-Brexit?
There are going to need to be some massive changes in the EU for it to survive the next couple of decades, most of which will revolve around sorting out the pigs ear of the Euro. I am sure they technically can introduce a full transfer union, and the socialisation of EU debt across all countries without a treaty, using the "self-amending treaty" facets of Lisbon, but attempting that sort of scale of change without explicit permission of the voters would be courageous in the extreme. Nothing would act as a better recruiting sergeant for right wing parties in donor countries than being able to show how voters were having their living standards reduced to pay off the overdrafts and "foolishness" of debtor countries.
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
The first snowflake of the day. It is January I suppose.
I always imagined a snowflake as being someone who can't take a challenge. Who won't stick two fingers in the air when confronted with something they find distasteful but instead asks for 'safe spaces' or seeks to close down a conversation. Maybe you confuse dislike with a desire to avoid. I'm entirely happy to be vocal in my beliefs and to defend them.
Being obscene in block capitals is not "defending beliefs" by any stretch of the imagination.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Trump beat Hillary among the wealthiest sections of the US electorate. Hillary won among the poorest.
Leave won on the back of pensioners whose incomes have risen by 13% in the last decade, while the incomes of those of working age have fallen.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Trump beat Hillary among the wealthiest sections of the US electorate. Hillary won among the poorest.
Leave won on the back of pensioners whose incomes have risen by 13% in the last decade, while the incomes of those of working age have fallen.
If you are a left liberal establishment crony - then yes. If you think the EU is an undemocratic superstate wannabe and that it's apparent desire to damage a member state that has democratically voted to do its own thing is a malign act - then no. It looks like in future we'll be a bit closer to the USA and a bit further from the EU. Good.
Yep, the anti-EU right's new strategy for the UK is to prostrate itself at the feet of a man who has proved himself to be entirely untrustworthy time and again, and whose first instinct is towards protectionism at a time when the UK desperately needs free trade and stability in Europe. The look in Gove's eyes in that photo of him with the President-elect is priceless.
The UK does not need stability in Europe ideally it wants division in Europe and the rise of anti EU nationalism from a purely selfish, short term perspective
Can you explain how instability and division in our single biggest export market benefits the UK?
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Trump beat Hillary among the wealthiest sections of the US electorate. Hillary won among the poorest.
Leave won on the back of pensioners whose incomes have risen by 13% in the last decade, while the incomes of those of working age have fallen.
Joe Average lost.
Trump's biggest lead was amongst middle income voters and he lost graduates, as did Leave
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
The first snowflake of the day. It is January I suppose.
I always imagined a snowflake as being someone who can't take a challenge. Who won't stick two fingers in the air when confronted with something they find distasteful but instead asks for 'safe spaces' or seeks to close down a conversation. Maybe you confuse dislike with a desire to avoid. I'm entirely happy to be vocal in my beliefs and to defend them.
Being obscene in block capitals is not "defending beliefs" by any stretch of the imagination.
I cordially invite you also to go forth and multiply.
I think the medium term future for the UK is more positive than it is for the EU.
I don't want the EU to fail (the idea of European nation states co-existing and co-operating peacefully is great) but it's likely it eventually will. I don't think it will fall apart quickly, but it will continue to trudge through treacle in a manner unsatisfactory to most of its citizens.
Steve Hilton had the most compelling view about the EU's innate problem. It won't be politics or economics that brings it down, it will be social and technological advances. We live in a world - whether any of us like it or not - where individuals have more choice and opportunity at our fingertips than we've ever had. The internet and smartphones have changed everything. We expect quick answers to everything and we all demand 'instant, improving change' from our politicians, in a world becoming ever more local and individualistic.
The EU on the other hand is all about homogeneity and centralisation. Under EU governance power is moving away from individual citizens; not nearer to them. Imagine how helpless the Greeks feel? Or the 40% unemployed youth in southern Spain? They all have smartphones and 50 news channels on their Ipads that tell them how speedily the world is changing but they live in a federal, continental system that is unable to provide them even with a job opportunity.
Of course, these problems are prevalent outside of the EU too. But, the democratic ability to vote out the politician making your laws is a powerful thing, and people in Spain and Greece must feel like their democratic vote has been eroded, to the point of uselessness.
So the EU will stumble on, pissing off more and more of its citizens, until they eventually revolt, or - heaven forbid - change (very unlikely...). So it's all a bit sad and depressing, and counter to the original noble aims of the superstate, but there we are.
I have to say that it's quite amusing to see Remainers so in favour of NATO now, when in the past they have been so dismissive of it and claimed that it was the EU that kept the peace.
Any examples, or are you just making that up?
Why would I make it up? It's come up many times on here both before and after the referendum, that it was the EU and not NATO that kept the peace in Europe since WW II. Now that Trump is seen to have criticised NATO everyone is now all in favour of NATO.
You can count the number of Brexiteers opposed to NATO on the fingers of one hand.
The equivalence is often made between supporting withdrawal from the EU and the UN/NATO/WTO, and other international organisations, but there isn't one and we don't.
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
The first snowflake of the day. It is January I suppose.
I always imagined a snowflake as being someone who can't take a challenge. Who won't stick two fingers in the air when confronted with something they find distasteful but instead asks for 'safe spaces' or seeks to close down a conversation. Maybe you confuse dislike with a desire to avoid. I'm entirely happy to be vocal in my beliefs and to defend them.
Being obscene in block capitals is not "defending beliefs" by any stretch of the imagination.
I cordially invite you also to go forth and multiply.
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
As a former pupil of Marlborough I imagine someone told you about the impact on 'ORDINARY PEOPLE'S LIVES'?
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
The first snowflake of the day. It is January I suppose.
I always imagined a snowflake as being someone who can't take a challenge. Who won't stick two fingers in the air when confronted with something they find distasteful but instead asks for 'safe spaces' or seeks to close down a conversation. Maybe you confuse dislike with a desire to avoid. I'm entirely happy to be vocal in my beliefs and to defend them.
Being obscene in block capitals is not "defending beliefs" by any stretch of the imagination.
I cordially invite you also to go forth and multiply.
I did. Years ago.
LOL! Good chap. My best wishes to your little'uns.
I'm noticing a bit of a shift in UK press coverage/journo tweeting re Trump - it's getting a bit less OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For those interested, Project Veritas have apparently got planned felony footage by Trump protesters re Inguaration - they're publishing today after handing evidence to LEOs/FBI/SS on Friday.
I think the medium term future for the UK is more positive than it is for the EU.
I don't want the EU to fail (the idea of European nation states co-existing and co-operating peacefully is great) but it's likely it eventually will. I don't think it will fall apart quickly, but it will continue to trudge through treacle in a manner unsatisfactory to most of its citizens.
The most compelling argument I read recently over the fatal flaw in the EU - and why the UK will ultimately 'muddle through' was quoted in that Dominic Cummings magnum opus - 'error correction'.
All human systems get things wrong & make mistakes - its how the system copes with that mistake that matters. The UK with Common Law and parliamentary democracy can make crashing mistakes - but generally corrects them under control and without violence. The EU is far from developing such a capability, but is making mistakes a plenty.
We're no longer an impediment to further integration, particularly within the EZ. I can't believe the arch-federalists are anything but delighted that the UK is no longer going to be a fully paid-up member of the awkward squad.
In terms of Ireland, you'd have to work hard to find a country that's benefited more from EU membership. They've almost weaned themselves of the UK's economic tit.
Their risks are really around the content of any future treaty (we talked about corporate tax harmonisation a couple of days ago). Post Lisbon and all the ensuing shenanigans there has been little appetite for a new treaty - I wonder if that will change post-Brexit?
Hammond is a smart guy. He's effectively said: you can give us a fair deal, in which case we will stay part of the European family, align our interests with yours, and fully support the EU in its political project. But, if you don't, we'll become an offshore Singapore, siphon off your corporate tax base, and maybe slightly less cooperative in matters of defence and security.
The talk so far has been of a lose-lose economic deal because of the political need for the EU to roger a deserter. But, if that lose-lose economic deal is seen by the EU to have political consequences, then I expect the position could change.
That's why I think, at the end of the day, there will be an ok deal.
Our level of access to the single market will be restricted, and we will have to pay more for it, so the EU can wax-lyrical about its four freedoms, but, outside of that, realpolitik should win out.
I've just heard an interview with michael Gove. Even as someone with his head three quarters of the way up Trump's backside he more or less conceded that Trump hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about or doing. That he didn't ask for clarification on the garbage that Trump was spouting was because 'he was there as a journalist'
If ever there was a time in recent history where we NEED our EU allies this is it
We could be facing disaster
And so they need to negotiate a sensible deal.
I like most have no idea where all this is going and Trump does not provide confidence or re-assurance. However, I would imagine the EU and in particular the Commission know they are waking up to one of their worse nightmares. The President of the US is anti the Commission and pro the Nation states in a big way.
How is he going to influence the French, Dutch and German elections this year. It is not too much to imagine chaos will reign in Europe which, though I now want to leave, is not a very good place to be
I can only speak for what seems to be happening in France. Trump is a laughing stock. Anyone cosying up to him like ML-P is likely to pay an electoral price
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
What an extreme reaction to an amusing cartoon. Trump does tweet a lot, that's a defining attribute of the way he has so far done business.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
It's rather ironic that the extreme touchiness that Patrick showed to a quite whimsical cartoon is actually another defining characteristic of Trump himself.
I think the medium term future for the UK is more positive than it is for the EU.
I don't want the EU to fail (the idea of European nation states co-existing and co-operating peacefully is great) but it's likely it eventually will. I don't think it will fall apart quickly, but it will continue to trudge through treacle in a manner unsatisfactory to most of its citizens.
Steve Hilton had the most compelling view about the EU's innate problem. It won't be politics or economics that brings it down, it will be social and technological advances. We live in a world - whether any of us like it or not - where individuals have more choice and opportunity at our fingertips than we've ever had. The internet and smartphones have changed everything. We expect quick answers to everything and we all demand 'instant, improving change' from our politicians, in a world becoming ever more local and individualistic.
The EU on the other hand is all about homogeneity and centralisation. Under EU governance power is moving away from individual citizens; not nearer to them. Imagine how helpless the Greeks feel? Or the 40% unemployed youth in southern Spain? They all have smartphones and 50 news channels on their Ipads that tell them how speedily the world is changing but they live in a federal, continental system that is unable to provide them even with a job opportunity.
Of course, these problems are prevalent outside of the EU too. But, the democratic ability to vote out the politician making your laws is a powerful thing, and people in Spain and Greece must feel like their democratic vote has been eroded, to the point of uselessness.
So the EU will stumble on, pissing off more and more of its citizens, until they eventually revolt, or - heaven forbid - change (very unlikely...). So it's all a bit sad and depressing, and counter to the original noble aims of the superstate, but there we are.
Yes, I thought Andrew Marr put it well when he said our politics had become far too much "computer says no" to be healthy anymore.
I hear the distinct sound of liberals whistling to keep their spirits up today. All this talk about "laughing stocks" and "paying the electoral price" as populism marches undaunted across the western world is quite touching
I've just heard an interview with michael Gove. Even as someone with his head three quarters of the way up Trump's backside he more or less conceded that Trump hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about or doing. That he didn't ask for clarification on the garbage that Trump was spouting was because 'he was there as a journalist'
If ever there was a time in recent history where we NEED our EU allies this is it
We could be facing disaster
And so they need to negotiate a sensible deal.
I like most have no idea where all this is going and Trump does not provide confidence or re-assurance. However, I would imagine the EU and in particular the Commission know they are waking up to one of their worse nightmares. The President of the US is anti the Commission and pro the Nation states in a big way.
How is he going to influence the French, Dutch and German elections this year. It is not too much to imagine chaos will reign in Europe which, though I now want to leave, is not a very good place to be
I can only speak for what seems to be happening in France. Trump is a laughing stock. Anyone cosying up to him like ML-P is likely to pay an electoral price
He is a laughing stock just now but after Friday he will be President of the US and he will need to be taken seriously for good or bad
I think the deal will be very different from that predicted by so called exports.
The status quo is the starting point and probably the default position - any restrictions will be on future changes and future EU treaties will no doubt try to buy off internal EU interests with favourable changes to vested pork barrel interests.
On topic: I find the thread header cartoon is a lazy lefty arrogant wankfest. The liberal consensus has been failing for a long time. Failing to deal with the realities of globalisation and the impact on ordinary people's lives. Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, 5 Star, AfD, etc are all reactions to a 'settled' political coziness that hasn't worked for many , many voters. Voters who have frankly had enough. Portraying Trump and the whole political phenomemon across the developed world as 'childish' is itself profoundly childish. Remember Einstein's definition of insanity. It's time we tried something different. Something that ordinary voters can feel connected to. So FUCK YOU helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.
Einstein never said that - which is unsurprising, because it is bollocks. Think of repeatedly tossing a coin - what is the sane expectation as to the result each time?
We're no longer an impediment to further integration, particularly within the EZ. I can't believe the arch-federalists are anything but delighted that the UK is no longer going to be a fully paid-up member of the awkward squad.
In terms of Ireland, you'd have to work hard to find a country that's benefited more from EU membership. They've almost weaned themselves of the UK's economic tit.
Their risks are really around the content of any future treaty (we talked about corporate tax harmonisation a couple of days ago). Post Lisbon and all the ensuing shenanigans there has been little appetite for a new treaty - I wonder if that will change post-Brexit?
Hammond is a smart guy. He's effectively said: you can give us a fair deal, in which case we will stay part of the European family, align our interests with yours, and fully support the EU in its political project. But, if you don't, we'll become an offshore Singapore, siphon off your corporate tax base, and maybe slightly less cooperative in matters of defence and security.
The talk so far has been of a lose-lose economic deal because of the political need for the EU to roger a deserter. But, if that lose-lose economic deal is seen by the EU to have political consequences, then I expect the position could change.
That's why I think, at the end of the day, there will be an ok deal.
Our level of access to the single market will be restricted, and we will have to pay more for it, so the EU can wax-lyrical about its four freedoms, but, outside of that, realpolitik should win out.
The danger is our desire to have absolutely everything sorted in a two year window. My personal view is that a five to seven year transition period would have been a far more sensible solution, because it would give businesses time to adjust on both sides of the Channel.
I can't think of a single serious trade negotiation that's taken less than five or six years. And then you need to remember that we lose - realistically - six months of our two year window due to elections this year in Europe.
With a transition period off the table, I think the risk of a major investment slowdown in 2017 and 2018 is growing by the day. This will (a) lower our GDP growth at a time when the UK economy is already dangerously over-reliant on consumption, and (b) retard our long-term growth prospects.
After having forecast 1-1.5% growth only last week, I think the risk of us slipping into recession by the end of the year has gone from negligible to meaningful.
We're no longer an impediment to further integration, particularly within the EZ. I can't believe the arch-federalists are anything but delighted that the UK is no longer going to be a fully paid-up member of the awkward squad.
In terms of Ireland, you'd have to work hard to find a country that's benefited more from EU membership. They've almost weaned themselves of the UK's economic tit.
Their risks are really around the content of any future treaty (we talked about corporate tax harmonisation a couple of days ago). Post Lisbon and all the ensuing shenanigans there has been little appetite for a new treaty - I wonder if that will change post-Brexit?
Hammond is a smart guy. He's effectively said: you can give us a fair deal, in which case we will stay part of the European family, align our interests with yours, and fully support the EU in its political project. But, if you don't, we'll become an offshore Singapore, siphon off your corporate tax base, and maybe slightly less cooperative in matters of defence and security.
The talk so far has been of a lose-lose economic deal because of the political need for the EU to roger a deserter. But, if that lose-lose economic deal is seen by the EU to have political consequences, then I expect the position could change.
That's why I think, at the end of the day, there will be an ok deal.
Our level of access to the single market will be restricted, and we will have to pay more for it, so the EU can wax-lyrical about its four freedoms, but, outside of that, realpolitik should win out.
There are a number of versions of the serenity prayer:
"God grant us the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference."
In terms of personal agency, I was able to vote in EUref. There are no controls in my cockpit now. I'll possibly get a chance to influence things in a small way if there's a pre-2020 GE or (heaven forfend!) a second referendum.
I'm at the mercy of the competence and temperament of multitudinous politicians, bureaucrats and businessfolk who are going to shape the kind of Brexit we achieve and the success or failure thereof.
Like most of us here, I'm hoping for the best, planning for the worst, but mostly plodding on with the quotidian tasks of semi-retired life.
Their risks are really around the content of any future treaty (we talked about corporate tax harmonisation a couple of days ago). Post Lisbon and all the ensuing shenanigans there has been little appetite for a new treaty - I wonder if that will change post-Brexit?
There are going to need to be some massive changes in the EU for it to survive the next couple of decades, most of which will revolve around sorting out the pigs ear of the Euro. I am sure they technically can introduce a full transfer union, and the socialisation of EU debt across all countries without a treaty, using the "self-amending treaty" facets of Lisbon, but attempting that sort of scale of change without explicit permission of the voters would be courageous in the extreme. Nothing would act as a better recruiting sergeant for right wing parties in donor countries than being able to show how voters were having their living standards reduced to pay off the overdrafts and "foolishness" of debtor countries.
FWIW, I think up to - and including - the Single European Act, there was a geopolitical settlement within Europe that the UK could live with for the long term.
The real problem for us started in the late 1980s, when the (then) EC made noises, and then followed through, with its long-held aspirations for economic and political union.
@Patrick: it is worth remembering that for the vast majority of people on planet Earth, life has never been better. More people are fed and more people have good health than ever before.
See sterling's predicted crash has not happened - dollar rate 1.21 euro rate 1.14 as at 9.56
I see no reason to doubt the forecasts of the pound approaching parity with both the euro and the dollar at some point this year. The UK is a speculator's dream at the moment.
The danger is our desire to have absolutely everything sorted in a two year window. My personal view is that a five to seven year transition period would have been a far more sensible solution, because it would give businesses time to adjust on both sides of the Channel.
I can't think of a single serious trade negotiation that's taken less than five or six years. And then you need to remember that we lose - realistically - six months of our two year window due to elections this year in Europe.
With a transition period off the table, I think the risk of a major investment slowdown in 2017 and 2018 is growing by the day. This will (a) lower our GDP growth at a time when the UK economy is already dangerously over-reliant on consumption, and (b) retard our long-term growth prospects.
After having forecast 1-1.5% growth only last week, I think the risk of us slipping into recession by the end of the year has gone from negligible to meaningful.
I agree. But the price of reacquiring control over our own affairs was never going to be zero. For sure there will be some financial impact in the early years. I don't think most Leave voters thought otherwise. It wasn't really about the money. It is interesting, though, that the EU side have this morning a couple of nuggets to chew on (Hammond's tax warning and Trump's position). IF they do go for being beastly to us there will be blowback. Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
Bollocks.
If the EU is a mutually beneficial club, then not being in it is axiomatically "less beneficial" than being in it.
@Patrick: it is worth remembering that for the vast majority of people on planet Earth, life has never been better. More people are fed and more people have good health than ever before.
How very true. But not quite so true for some. A global equalising hasn't played out RELATIVELY so well for the bottom end of the developed societies.
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
I agree. But the price of reacquiring control over our own affairs was never going to be zero. For sure there will be some financial impact in the early years. I don't think most Leave voters thought otherwise. It wasn't really about the money. It is interesting, though, that the EU side have this morning a couple of nuggets to chew on (Hammond's tax warning and Trump's position). IF they do go for being beastly to us there will be blowback. Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
Are they being beastly to us?
Some politicians have said some things, other politicians have said others. There's been a lot of kite flying, but has anyone really been beastly?
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
If the EU is a mutually beneficial club, then not being in it is axiomatically "less beneficial" than being in it. .
Depends if you think the mutual benefits are spread evenly throughout all of the countries or not.
Greece has had mutual benefits - but is now paying them back..
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
If the EU is a mutually beneficial club, then not being in it is axiomatically "less beneficial" than being in it. .
Depends if you think the mutual benefits are spread evenly throughout all of the countries or not.
Greece has had mutual benefits - but is now paying them back..
Isn't Greece a classic example of if you give someone £100 one day then demand £50 the next people will think they're £50 poorer ?
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Trump beat Hillary among the wealthiest sections of the US electorate. Hillary won among the poorest.
Leave won on the back of pensioners whose incomes have risen by 13% in the last decade, while the incomes of those of working age have fallen.
Joe Average lost.
People don't elect presidents, states do.
Of course - yet another reason why those claiming his was a victory for the forgotten and left behind are wrong.
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
Bollocks.
If the EU is a mutually beneficial club, then not being in it is axiomatically "less beneficial" than being in it.
@Patrick: it is worth remembering that for the vast majority of people on planet Earth, life has never been better. More people are fed and more people have good health than ever before.
Inequality between countries has been falling even as it rises within countries.
As the Spirit Level said, unequal countries tend to have more perceived social problems than more equal countries do, even if GDP/capita is about the same.
Unlike Brits., I think most mainland Europeans perceive that open borders are the future. Only a few peripheral northerners will want permanent full passport controls reintroduced, maybe the countries with a sea crossing between them and 'the continent'.
The only disadvantage I can see is that stupid people who wrongly programme their satnav will have no border officials to ask 'where am I?'
@Patrick: it is worth remembering that for the vast majority of people on planet Earth, life has never been better. More people are fed and more people have good health than ever before.
How very true. But not quite so true for some. A global equalising hasn't played out RELATIVELY so well for the bottom end of the developed societies.
Yes.
The problem is that the alternatives (and I'm not talking about the EU) were not that great either. In the old days, we had a monopoly on value add. The developing world dug oil, coal, and metals out the ground, we did magic to it, and we were rich and they were poor.
But then the developing nations discovered our secret. China learned to manufacture. India learned to code. Should we shut ourselves off from their cheap manufactured product, protecting our domestic industries? Even if we could do that without consequence, their share of the world's resources is going to grow. We will need to consume less raw materials in absolute terms, because they are getting richer quicker than the pace at which extraction increases.
The countries where the bottom 25% have done best in developed economies - Switzerland and Germany spring to mind - have done so by ensuring that their education systems are focused on giving those people the right education and skills.
Mr. P, the EU is not dissimilar to (in political terms) the transition of the Athenian-led anti-Persian coalition gradually transforming into an Athenian Empire. Power creeping from the periphery to the centre, seemingly inexorably, and great discord when anyone tries to leave.
Logged on the site to try and get some guidance for what comes next and realise that still no-one knows.
We are a medical device manufacturer making core items such as vasectomy kits that keep the NHS going. Most of what we make is exported and we buy in a lot internationally.
At the ground level you can see how Brexit has added to the chaos of the NHS. Our industry is governed by the MEDDEV a massive tome prepared by the European Parliament. When a change is made industry has a 2 year period to adopt the updated standard. Any change is a massive cost in terms of manpower and external audit fees. We need to comply as the EC is our biggest customer.
So if the UK is to set up its own Medical Device regulatory set up it will need to get someone to assist. We can outsource to USA (no way), Australia (complicated) or maybe Canada. The transition phase will be ... who knows. Who will pay the cost?
The UK is a net importer of medical devices and many core items such as cardiac catheters are almost fully imported. Will we stop procedures until these devices meet the new guidelines?
So what to do? Well like many other companies I am diverting my efforts from supporting NHS customers to international customers and putting my domestic prices up. In the meantime things are good. My staff get less on a global basis. Demand is high and the NHS has nowhere to go when I put my prices up. Sometimes they complain and then I stop supply at which point they come back.
I am not a great believer in EC but I am not sure our politicians understand the difference between what works and what does not. The present crisis in the NHS is probably an inevitable casualty of Brexit. One day it will all settle down but I would say a hard Brexit would create 5 years of chaos. Will Theresa May be honest in her speech?
Mr. P, the EU is not dissimilar to (in political terms) the transition of the Athenian-led anti-Persian coalition gradually transforming into an Athenian Empire. Power creeping from the periphery to the centre, seemingly inexorably, and great discord when anyone tries to leave.
Logged on the site to try and get some guidance for what comes next and realise that still no-one knows.
We are a medical device manufacturer making core items such as vasectomy kits that keep the NHS going. Most of what we make is exported and we buy in a lot internationally.
At the ground level you can see how Brexit has added to the chaos of the NHS. Our industry is governed by the MEDDEV a massive tome prepared by the European Parliament. When a change is made industry has a 2 year period to adopt the updated standard. Any change is a massive cost in terms of manpower and external audit fees. We need to comply as the EC is our biggest customer.
So if the UK is to set up its own Medical Device regulatory set up it will need to get someone to assist. We can outsource to USA (no way), Australia (complicated) or maybe Canada. The transition phase will be ... who knows. Who will pay the cost?
The UK is a net importer of medical devices and many core items such as cardiac catheters are almost fully imported. Will we stop procedures until these devices meet the new guidelines?
So what to do? Well like many other companies I am diverting my efforts from supporting NHS customers to international customers and putting my domestic prices up. In the meantime things are good. My staff get less on a global basis. Demand is high and the NHS has nowhere to go when I put my prices up. Sometimes they complain and then I stop supply at which point they come back.
I am not a great believer in EC but I am not sure our politicians understand the difference between what works and what does not. The present crisis in the NHS is probably an inevitable casualty of Brexit. One day it will all settle down but I would say a hard Brexit would create 5 years of chaos. Will Theresa May be honest in her speech?
Thanks for your interesting contribution on the frontline realities. No doubt you will be shouted down for being negative about this country's prospects out of single market etc etc.
No amount of shouting and huffing from the Brexit merchants will change one thing on the ground where real businesses will up against the chaos.
" Scotland Yard whistleblower who claimed the Crown Prosecution Service is failing Asian female victims of honour crimes has been served a formal notice alleging gross misconduct for talking to the press by his employers at the Metropolitan Police.
Det Sgt Pal Singh is facing possible disciplinary sanctions and even dismissal after disclosing to The Daily Telegraph that he believes “apathy” by prosecutors led to the collapse of what could have been the first conviction for forced marriage in England.
He claims his treatment is “indicative of state censorship” and shows “public institutions are more concerned about their reputations than the victims of crime”.
Miss Plato, that's disturbing news on forced marriage whistle-blowing.
Mr. Rex, I remember the Melian dialogue, but can't recall how it turns out (in the short term. Obviously, in the long term Athens lost).
Edited extra bit: actually making some progress with the paperback formatting. Gotten over a weird persistent error (about two inches of blank space at the top of the page which added 40 odd pages in total).
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Um. If emboldening takes the form of swearing at harmless PB contributors, do you think you might go and embolden somewhere else for a bit? I'd say the same if we had identical political views. This is a mostly friendly blog, not a brawl.
Given that, the 5.5 (each way) for the title *may* be value. Be intrigued to see if they odds decline after he's confirmed. Of course, if he's not, the 5.5 is terrible.
Verstappen and Ricciardo are both shorter than that, but longer than Hamilton (down at 2.5).
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Um. If emboldening takes the form of swearing at harmless PB contributors, do you think you might go and embolden somewhere else for a bit? I'd say the same if we had identical political views. This is a mostly friendly blog, not a brawl.
It's NOT harmless Nick. The endless drip drip drip of condescension towards those not in the project is damaging. Righties tend to disparage lefties because 'such and such a policy is insane' (salary caps being last weeks' example). Lefties tend to disparage righties by saying 'you're evil or stupid' (most of what comes out of any given lefty's gob). Yes I'm a political nerd as are most on here. Delighted to have a feisty debate about content. Less delighted to start the day with a 'harmless' cartoon saying that the new POTUS is an imbecile just because. He's obviously a smarter guy than all the loser lefties in the USA! Can we please put identity politics and disdain back in their box.
Is Trump saying he'll sanction Russia until it gives up some of its nukes, thereby treating Russia as if it were North Korea? Or is he saying he'll remove sanctions if both parties agree to give some up?
The Times reports that "(an)y potential trade deal with the US would be a powerful weapon in the UK's negotiating armoury as it would open further a huge market for British goods and services." They seem to be forgetting the larger transport costs involved in shipping goods across 3000 miles of ocean, compared with whizzing them 20 miles across or under the Channel.
That is quite aside from the fact that the head of government in the US is a known nutcase, making it highly inadvisable to become dependent on that country.
Trump says he believes other countries will leave the EU. That and calling the EU a "vehicle for Germany" is saying "vote Le Pen". I am expecting him to refer implicitly or explicitly to France in particular in his inauguration speech. Some may wish to follow the bookie Shadsy's advice (sic) and pile in on Macron. I'll be piling in on Le Pen.
Asking Jared Kushner to broker a Middle East deal is like doing to the Arabs what he is alleged to have paid whores to do to the bed in Moscow.
Ordering Britain to veto any proposed UNSC resolution critical of Israel plays well to the Lobby, but since two vetos carry the same weight as one veto, it's essentially PR.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Um. If emboldening takes the form of swearing at harmless PB contributors, do you think you might go and embolden somewhere else for a bit? I'd say the same if we had identical political views. This is a mostly friendly blog, not a brawl.
It's NOT harmless Nick. The endless drip drip drip of condescension towards those not in the project is damaging. Righties tend to disparage lefties because 'such and such a policy is insane' (salary caps being last weeks' example). Lefties tend to disparage righties by saying 'you're evil or stupid' (most of what comes out of any given lefty's gob). Yes I'm a political nerd as are most on here. Delighted to have a feisty debate about content. Less delighted to start the day with a 'harmless' cartoon saying that the new POTUS is an imbecile just because. He's obviously a smarter guy than all the loser lefties in the USA! Can we please put identity politics and disdain back in their box.
How the hell does that cartoon say that the PEOTUS is an imbecile to anyone (thin skinned, paranoid, victimhood seekers excepted)?
No, it's a vote of confidence in firms based in Britain that trade around the globe.
In constant currency, the UK has probably been the worst performing major stockmarket in the last seven months.
I suspect part of your role is to maintain some balance on the site and your comments reflect that but I am genuinely impressed that you present facts and opinions that are not necessarily helpful to your political Leave stance.
Boston Bobblehead Clinton Global Initiative is closing its doors for good after @HillaryClinton LOST & there's no influence to peddle https://t.co/XD50khdmxB
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
While it is fun taking potshots at "liberal lefties" you should perhaps also note that Trump beat the right wing GOP establishment and the even further right wing Tea Party. Trump is sui generis (apologies to the pb lawyers if I'm misusing that term -- I got it from Rumpole). Strip out the American exceptionalism and isolationism, and Donald Trump probably is one of those liberal lefties you affect to despise. On most social issues, I doubt you could get a fag paper between Hillary and the Donald.
Though I overdid the hyperbole a bit before Christmas, I remain of my recent mind that there could be something of a safety net put under Hard Brexit, arising from the current legal arguments, should the government play things right. This might just allow us the opportunity to get results on both trade and immigration.
So, if you sue for hard Brexit after A50:
(1) Not invoking EEA A127 as well could give us a fall back position of rights and obligations that we could be entitled to as of right if the EU offer is no good. (2) If EU has not properly followed their legal process in setting up the Brexit negotiations, they might be nervous of come back from companies, especially if the likes of BMW are prompted to make pained noises. I'd not overstate this - I'm not (as a layman) aware of much precedent for disadavantaged companies successfully proving that international trade deals were incorrectly negotiated and being compensated for such. (3) If A50 does turn out to be reversible, then the prospect of Britain returning to the fold, not as a prodigal son, but hinting at being an even more intransigent blocking force, could focus minds on a better deal - as opposed to the derisory deal that is widely supposed if Britain shows any interest in ducking out of A50.
This is not an unvarnished change of heart on my part, any possibilities in the above would need the UK to play a blinder - I still see far more safety in as soft a Brexit as possible. Because, if the markets don't see the hard Brexit safety net, or the government takes a different negotiation path then all the above becomes moot anyway.
Boston Bobblehead Clinton Global Initiative is closing its doors for good after @HillaryClinton LOST & there's no influence to peddle https://t.co/XD50khdmxB
Losing the election must have cost Clan Clinton hundreds of millions of dollars in lost "influence" revenues.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Um. If emboldening takes the form of swearing at harmless PB contributors, do you think you might go and embolden somewhere else for a bit? I'd say the same if we had identical political views. This is a mostly friendly blog, not a brawl.
It's NOT harmless Nick. The endless drip drip drip of condescension towards those not in the project is damaging. Righties tend to disparage lefties because 'such and such a policy is insane' (salary caps being last weeks' example). Lefties tend to disparage righties by saying 'you're evil or stupid' (most of what comes out of any given lefty's gob). Yes I'm a political nerd as are most on here. Delighted to have a feisty debate about content. Less delighted to start the day with a 'harmless' cartoon saying that the new POTUS is an imbecile just because. He's obviously a smarter guy than all the loser lefties in the USA! Can we please put identity politics and disdain back in their box.
Quislings, traitors, haters of the WWC, welfare junkies, cowards and despisers of Britain and its history are just some of the things the lefty posters on PB get called on a regular basis.
'In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right to leave 47%
Wrong to leave 43%'
Hardly the enthusiastic embrace of Leave by pragmatic Remainers that's touted on here.
Otoh in Scotland it's 30-59 which suggests the will of the Scots is fairly settled.
They should have asked people in Scotland
"Do you think unrestricted immigration to Scotland from Romania, Bulgaria and Poland is a price worth paying for Scotland to continue to be able to send 10% of its exports outside of Britain to countries in the EU?"
Hammond is a smart guy. He's effectively said: you can give us a fair deal, in which case we will stay part of the European family, align our interests with yours, and fully support the EU in its political project. But, if you don't, we'll become an offshore Singapore, siphon off your corporate tax base, and maybe slightly less cooperative in matters of defence and security.
The talk so far has been of a lose-lose economic deal because of the political need for the EU to roger a deserter. But, if that lose-lose economic deal is seen by the EU to have political consequences, then I expect the position could change.
That's why I think, at the end of the day, there will be an ok deal.
Our level of access to the single market will be restricted, and we will have to pay more for it, so the EU can wax-lyrical about its four freedoms, but, outside of that, realpolitik should win out.
The danger is our desire to have absolutely everything sorted in a two year window. My personal view is that a five to seven year transition period would have been a far more sensible solution, because it would give businesses time to adjust on both sides of the Channel.
I can't think of a single serious trade negotiation that's taken less than five or six years. And then you need to remember that we lose - realistically - six months of our two year window due to elections this year in Europe.
With a transition period off the table, I think the risk of a major investment slowdown in 2017 and 2018 is growing by the day. This will (a) lower our GDP growth at a time when the UK economy is already dangerously over-reliant on consumption, and (b) retard our long-term growth prospects.
After having forecast 1-1.5% growth only last week, I think the risk of us slipping into recession by the end of the year has gone from negligible to meaningful.
Sounds to me like the HMG is talking very much about a transition period. I'd imagine they'd like it wrapped up by 2025GE, and go into the 2020GE with Brexit technically achieved.
That way, they can trumpet the trade deals achieved in the next parliament. I expect very few, if any (possibly NZ/Aus) wrapped up by 2020GE as there will legally be barely 12 months to sort them prior to the dissolution.
I think @Patrick got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning!
Maybe. Maybe I'm just feeling emboldened by the excellent run of recent political events. Those of us with an instinctive distrust of authoritarian controlling political elites and their contempt for Joe Average have experienced a spiritual liberation. The fear and horror liberal lefties are feeling these days is what the rest of us have been feeling for 40 years. Maybe I'll a thousand 'Deplorable Me' t-shirts printed up. They'd sell well.
Um. If emboldening takes the form of swearing at harmless PB contributors, do you think you might go and embolden somewhere else for a bit? I'd say the same if we had identical political views. This is a mostly friendly blog, not a brawl.
It's NOT harmless Nick. The endless drip drip drip of condescension towards those not in the project is damaging. Righties tend to disparage lefties because 'such and such a policy is insane' (salary caps being last weeks' example). Lefties tend to disparage righties by saying 'you're evil or stupid' (most of what comes out of any given lefty's gob). Yes I'm a political nerd as are most on here. Delighted to have a feisty debate about content. Less delighted to start the day with a 'harmless' cartoon saying that the new POTUS is an imbecile just because. He's obviously a smarter guy than all the loser lefties in the USA! Can we please put identity politics and disdain back in their box.
How the hell does that cartoon say that the PEOTUS is an imbecile to anyone (thin skinned, paranoid, victimhood seekers excepted)?
Patrick must have some Islamist blood in him to get this enraged over a benign cartoon.
Comments
https://t.co/5WvQEBK2Jc
I'd be happy to see the EU become far more democratic, but hey, not my concern - we're off out. Those idiot EUrocrats who mismanaged things to the point where the second largest member left are still in place, seemingly having learned nothing. There needs to be a Night of the Long Knives that moves them out of their cushy posts. If our leaving gives some ammunition to help make that change occur, I think Europe would be better for it.. But I wouldn't wish a drop on the EU's collective economies though.
To adapt Sherlock Holmes: we see but we do not observe. This prime minister is not a great exponent of euphemism, metaphor and rhetorical trope. Instinctively, she says what she means. The natural response of a political and media class raised on spin, dog-whistles and devious code is to look for hidden meaning or the absence of any meaning at all.
When May says that “Brexit means Brexit”, it feels like a dereliction of cryptographic duty to take her at face value. Yet her method is, and has always been, to disclose her intentions straightforwardly but according to her own timetable. As she reportedly says to allies: “I don’t care if people think I’m stupid for a bit.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/hard-soft-brexit-theresa-may-speech
Given the geopolitics of about 1947-8 onwards I don't think that was a realistic concern (all Western European countries were concerned about Russia ) and a counter history might have had a looser regional trading bloc in Europe, combined with common challenges being discussed in the Council of Europe.
Countries could have pegged / unpegged their currencies to the DM, as they saw fit.
Leave won on the back of pensioners whose incomes have risen by 13% in the last decade, while the incomes of those of working age have fallen.
Joe Average lost.
I don't want the EU to fail (the idea of European nation states co-existing and co-operating peacefully is great) but it's likely it eventually will. I don't think it will fall apart quickly, but it will continue to trudge through treacle in a manner unsatisfactory to most of its citizens.
Steve Hilton had the most compelling view about the EU's innate problem. It won't be politics or economics that brings it down, it will be social and technological advances. We live in a world - whether any of us like it or not - where individuals have more choice and opportunity at our fingertips than we've ever had. The internet and smartphones have changed everything. We expect quick answers to everything and we all demand 'instant, improving change' from our politicians, in a world becoming ever more local and individualistic.
The EU on the other hand is all about homogeneity and centralisation. Under EU governance power is moving away from individual citizens; not nearer to them. Imagine how helpless the Greeks feel? Or the 40% unemployed youth in southern Spain? They all have smartphones and 50 news channels on their Ipads that tell them how speedily the world is changing but they live in a federal, continental system that is unable to provide them even with a job opportunity.
Of course, these problems are prevalent outside of the EU too. But, the democratic ability to vote out the politician making your laws is a powerful thing, and people in Spain and Greece must feel like their democratic vote has been eroded, to the point of uselessness.
So the EU will stumble on, pissing off more and more of its citizens, until they eventually revolt, or - heaven forbid - change (very unlikely...). So it's all a bit sad and depressing, and counter to the original noble aims of the superstate, but there we are.
For those interested, Project Veritas have apparently got planned felony footage by Trump protesters re Inguaration - they're publishing today after handing evidence to LEOs/FBI/SS on Friday.
All human systems get things wrong & make mistakes - its how the system copes with that mistake that matters. The UK with Common Law and parliamentary democracy can make crashing mistakes - but generally corrects them under control and without violence. The EU is far from developing such a capability, but is making mistakes a plenty.
The talk so far has been of a lose-lose economic deal because of the political need for the EU to roger a deserter. But, if that lose-lose economic deal is seen by the EU to have political consequences, then I expect the position could change.
That's why I think, at the end of the day, there will be an ok deal.
Our level of access to the single market will be restricted, and we will have to pay more for it, so the EU can wax-lyrical about its four freedoms, but, outside of that, realpolitik should win out.
The status quo is the starting point and probably the default position - any restrictions will be on future changes and future EU treaties will no doubt try to buy off internal EU interests with favourable changes to vested pork barrel interests.
I can't think of a single serious trade negotiation that's taken less than five or six years. And then you need to remember that we lose - realistically - six months of our two year window due to elections this year in Europe.
With a transition period off the table, I think the risk of a major investment slowdown in 2017 and 2018 is growing by the day. This will (a) lower our GDP growth at a time when the UK economy is already dangerously over-reliant on consumption, and (b) retard our long-term growth prospects.
After having forecast 1-1.5% growth only last week, I think the risk of us slipping into recession by the end of the year has gone from negligible to meaningful.
"God grant us the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference."
In terms of personal agency, I was able to vote in EUref. There are no controls in my cockpit now. I'll possibly get a chance to influence things in a small way if there's a pre-2020 GE or (heaven forfend!) a second referendum.
I'm at the mercy of the competence and temperament of multitudinous politicians, bureaucrats and businessfolk who are going to shape the kind of Brexit we achieve and the success or failure thereof.
Like most of us here, I'm hoping for the best, planning for the worst, but mostly plodding on with the quotidian tasks of semi-retired life.
The real problem for us started in the late 1980s, when the (then) EC made noises, and then followed through, with its long-held aspirations for economic and political union.
The UK was never comfortable with that.
Russian government spokesman says Russia agrees with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that NATO is obsolete
I can't think of a single serious trade negotiation that's taken less than five or six years. And then you need to remember that we lose - realistically - six months of our two year window due to elections this year in Europe.
With a transition period off the table, I think the risk of a major investment slowdown in 2017 and 2018 is growing by the day. This will (a) lower our GDP growth at a time when the UK economy is already dangerously over-reliant on consumption, and (b) retard our long-term growth prospects.
After having forecast 1-1.5% growth only last week, I think the risk of us slipping into recession by the end of the year has gone from negligible to meaningful.
I agree. But the price of reacquiring control over our own affairs was never going to be zero. For sure there will be some financial impact in the early years. I don't think most Leave voters thought otherwise. It wasn't really about the money.
It is interesting, though, that the EU side have this morning a couple of nuggets to chew on (Hammond's tax warning and Trump's position). IF they do go for being beastly to us there will be blowback.
Being beastly to us is tantamount to admitting that the EU is a prison. 'Try to leave in a democratic fashion for your own interests and we'll try to screw you' is not the mantra of a winning organisation.
What *should* the GBP/USD be at though ?
If the EU is a mutually beneficial club, then not being in it is axiomatically "less beneficial" than being in it.
That's logic, not punishment.
Some politicians have said some things, other politicians have said others. There's been a lot of kite flying, but has anyone really been beastly?
Tell us how we didn't benefit?
Greece has had mutual benefits - but is now paying them back..
Lol.
Planet-sized IF there....
As the Spirit Level said, unequal countries tend to have more perceived social problems than more equal countries do, even if GDP/capita is about the same.
Unlike Brits., I think most mainland Europeans perceive that open borders are the future. Only a few peripheral northerners will want permanent full passport controls reintroduced, maybe the countries with a sea crossing between them and 'the continent'.
The only disadvantage I can see is that stupid people who wrongly programme their satnav will have no border officials to ask 'where am I?'
The problem is that the alternatives (and I'm not talking about the EU) were not that great either. In the old days, we had a monopoly on value add. The developing world dug oil, coal, and metals out the ground, we did magic to it, and we were rich and they were poor.
But then the developing nations discovered our secret. China learned to manufacture. India learned to code. Should we shut ourselves off from their cheap manufactured product, protecting our domestic industries? Even if we could do that without consequence, their share of the world's resources is going to grow. We will need to consume less raw materials in absolute terms, because they are getting richer quicker than the pace at which extraction increases.
The countries where the bottom 25% have done best in developed economies - Switzerland and Germany spring to mind - have done so by ensuring that their education systems are focused on giving those people the right education and skills.
France has very much the same-sized economy so we may swop places now and then.
We are a medical device manufacturer making core items such as vasectomy kits that keep the NHS going. Most of what we make is exported and we buy in a lot internationally.
At the ground level you can see how Brexit has added to the chaos of the NHS. Our industry is governed by the MEDDEV a massive tome prepared by the European Parliament. When a change is made industry has a 2 year period to adopt the updated standard. Any change is a massive cost in terms of manpower and external audit fees. We need to comply as the EC is our biggest customer.
So if the UK is to set up its own Medical Device regulatory set up it will need to get someone to assist. We can outsource to USA (no way), Australia (complicated) or maybe Canada. The transition phase will be ... who knows. Who will pay the cost?
The UK is a net importer of medical devices and many core items such as cardiac catheters are almost fully imported. Will we stop procedures until these devices meet the new guidelines?
So what to do? Well like many other companies I am diverting my efforts from supporting NHS customers to international customers and putting my domestic prices up. In the meantime things are good. My staff get less on a global basis. Demand is high and the NHS has nowhere to go when I put my prices up. Sometimes they complain and then I stop supply at which point they come back.
I am not a great believer in EC but I am not sure our politicians understand the difference between what works and what does not. The present crisis in the NHS is probably an inevitable casualty of Brexit. One day it will all settle down but I would say a hard Brexit would create 5 years of chaos. Will Theresa May be honest in her speech?
Rise in FTSE100 is not a vote of confidence in UK economy
Rise in FTSE100 is not a vote of confidence in UK economy
https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496
No amount of shouting and huffing from the Brexit merchants will change one thing on the ground where real businesses will up against the chaos.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/820943191402684416
" Scotland Yard whistleblower who claimed the Crown Prosecution Service is failing Asian female victims of honour crimes has been served a formal notice alleging gross misconduct for talking to the press by his employers at the Metropolitan Police.
Det Sgt Pal Singh is facing possible disciplinary sanctions and even dismissal after disclosing to The Daily Telegraph that he believes “apathy” by prosecutors led to the collapse of what could have been the first conviction for forced marriage in England.
He claims his treatment is “indicative of state censorship” and shows “public institutions are more concerned about their reputations than the victims of crime”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/13/metropolitan-police-accuses-honour-crimes-whistleblower-gross/
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/17ahuih4ja/TimesResults_170110_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
Copeland is more interesting but Gov't party underperformance in by-elections is a well established historical norm.
Mr. Rex, I remember the Melian dialogue, but can't recall how it turns out (in the short term. Obviously, in the long term Athens lost).
Edited extra bit: actually making some progress with the paperback formatting. Gotten over a weird persistent error (about two inches of blank space at the top of the page which added 40 odd pages in total).
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/full-transcript-of-interview-with-donald-trump-5d39sr09d
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38632247
Given that, the 5.5 (each way) for the title *may* be value. Be intrigued to see if they odds decline after he's confirmed. Of course, if he's not, the 5.5 is terrible.
Verstappen and Ricciardo are both shorter than that, but longer than Hamilton (down at 2.5).
wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right to leave 47%
Wrong to leave 43%'
Hardly the enthusiastic embrace of Leave by pragmatic Remainers that's touted on here.
Otoh in Scotland it's 30-59 which suggests the will of the Scots is fairly settled.
The Times reports that "(an)y potential trade deal with the US would be a powerful weapon in the UK's negotiating armoury as it would open further a huge market for British goods and services." They seem to be forgetting the larger transport costs involved in shipping goods across 3000 miles of ocean, compared with whizzing them 20 miles across or under the Channel.
That is quite aside from the fact that the head of government in the US is a known nutcase, making it highly inadvisable to become dependent on that country.
Trump says he believes other countries will leave the EU. That and calling the EU a "vehicle for Germany" is saying "vote Le Pen". I am expecting him to refer implicitly or explicitly to France in particular in his inauguration speech. Some may wish to follow the bookie Shadsy's advice (sic) and pile in on Macron. I'll be piling in on Le Pen.
Asking Jared Kushner to broker a Middle East deal is like doing to the Arabs what he is alleged to have paid whores to do to the bed in Moscow.
Ordering Britain to veto any proposed UNSC resolution critical of Israel plays well to the Lobby, but since two vetos carry the same weight as one veto, it's essentially PR.
Right/wrong to leave is secondary to should we have another referendum yes/no.
Boston Bobblehead
Clinton Global Initiative is closing its doors for good after @HillaryClinton LOST & there's no influence to peddle https://t.co/XD50khdmxB
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/820926817485852672
So, if you sue for hard Brexit after A50:
(1) Not invoking EEA A127 as well could give us a fall back position of rights and obligations that we could be entitled to as of right if the EU offer is no good.
(2) If EU has not properly followed their legal process in setting up the Brexit negotiations, they might be nervous of come back from companies, especially if the likes of BMW are prompted to make pained noises. I'd not overstate this - I'm not (as a layman) aware of much precedent for disadavantaged companies successfully proving that international trade deals were incorrectly negotiated and being compensated for such.
(3) If A50 does turn out to be reversible, then the prospect of Britain returning to the fold, not as a prodigal son, but hinting at being an even more intransigent blocking force, could focus minds on a better deal - as opposed to the derisory deal that is widely supposed if Britain shows any interest in ducking out of A50.
This is not an unvarnished change of heart on my part, any possibilities in the above would need the UK to play a blinder - I still see far more safety in as soft a Brexit as possible. Because, if the markets don't see the hard Brexit safety net, or the government takes a different negotiation path then all the above becomes moot anyway.
"Do you think unrestricted immigration to Scotland from Romania, Bulgaria and Poland is a price worth paying for Scotland to continue to be able to send 10% of its exports outside of Britain to countries in the EU?"
That way, they can trumpet the trade deals achieved in the next parliament. I expect very few, if any (possibly NZ/Aus) wrapped up by 2020GE as there will legally be barely 12 months to sort them prior to the dissolution.
Either that or he's a snowflake