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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,151

    RobD said:

    Awesome pun.

    twitter.com/TheSun/status/819672820695400455

    I thought it was linked to Andrew Wood, rather than the current EU ambassador?
    Sir Andrew Wood is the one who flagged it up to John McCain, but apparently Sir Tim Barrow was/is close to both Christopher Steele and Sir Andrew Wood...
    I think the Independent story suggests McCain sought out advice from Wood, rather than the other way around.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RobD said:

    Awesome pun.

    twitter.com/TheSun/status/819672820695400455

    I thought it was linked to Andrew Wood, rather than the current EU ambassador?
    Sir Andrew Wood is the one who flagged it up to John McCain, but apparently Sir Tim Barrow was/is close to both Christopher Steele and Sir Andrew Wood...
    To lose one Diplomat is unfortunate, to lose two...
  • rcs1000 said:

    It appears that the Sheffield City Regional Mayoral contest due to take place in May has been postponed because of lack of consultation with electors in Chesterfield . It may in fact never take place as proposal of a Greater Yorkshire mayor instead has been resurrected .

    I wasn't aware that the 'Sheffield City Region' had been consulted with electors anywhere.

    If the local people had been consulted by referendum on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region' it would have been overwhelmingly rejected.

    Which is precisely why the local people weren't consulted on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region'.

    There was a consultation, we were asked for our views.

    I liked it because it realised that county borders are irrelevant when you're that close to a big city
    “But the plans were on display…”
    “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
    “That’s the display department.”
    “With a flashlight.”
    “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
    “So had the stairs.”
    “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
    “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
    This was online, on the telly, in the local papers, you couldn't miss it.
    I remember seeing a few letters in the local papers - saying that the idea was crap.

    If it was put to the local voters in a referendum it would be overwhelmingly rejected - which is why it isn't being out to the voters in a referendum.

    ' On 4 November 2004, voters in the North East rejected the proposal, in an all-postal ballot, by 77.9% to 22.1%, on a turnout of 48%. Every council area in the region had a majority for "no". The referendum was held in what was arguably Labour's strongest region within the United Kingdom.

    The defeat marked the end of the Labour Government's policy of devolution for England, and the other proposed referendums for the North West and for Yorkshire and the Humber were dropped indefinitely. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,151

    RobD said:

    Awesome pun.

    twitter.com/TheSun/status/819672820695400455

    I thought it was linked to Andrew Wood, rather than the current EU ambassador?
    Sir Andrew Wood is the one who flagged it up to John McCain, but apparently Sir Tim Barrow was/is close to both Christopher Steele and Sir Andrew Wood...
    To lose one Diplomat is unfortunate, to lose two...
    FWIW Barrow has denied involvement. On the other hand, wood has been quite candid.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rcs1000 said:

    Report from man on the spot in Sunderland . Very close between Labour and Lib Dem

    Given the LibDems scored a staggering 4% last time in the ward, one fourteenth of the Labour vote, I would be staggered were they to win.

    So please colour me sceptical.
    Quite. If LAB and LD are close, it would be because of a collapse of Labour. I'd expect a Tory or UKIP win....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Collaborating with Russia? Wot, like our good friend across the pond?
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    My very Muslim mother has asked me what a golden shower is & why should that stop Trump being President because a golden lift didn't?

    I don't envy you right now... :D
    I'm 38, with my parents I've had only had one conversation on the subject of sex, that was with my father as I departed to university, when he told me that as a good Muslim boy who was going to have an arranged marriage in a few years time, I should remain chaste and virginal at university.

    I hate Donald Trump right now.
    My family is the opposite. We get drunk and talk about EVERYTHING, from who has had the most partners to who has had the kinkiest sex.

    On the other hand, my 1st stepmother (of 3, now deceased) once tried to stab me on Boxing Day. So, you know: swings and roundabouts.
    Why did she try to stab you ?
    Because 1. I was a recovering heroin addict, 2. she was an alcoholic, 3. she had early brain cancer and 4. (relatedly) she was mad and 5. she felt I was giving my Dad an alibi for his philandering, and 6. MY FAMILY
    The BBC made a mistake that Christmas - instead of Eastenders they should have shown 'At Home With The Thomases'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899

    Collaborating with Russia? Wot, like our good friend across the pond?
    Given that the younger Corbyn was likely to have been involved with groups with Soviet links, perhaps they have some kompromat on him too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    rcs1000 said:

    It appears that the Sheffield City Regional Mayoral contest due to take place in May has been postponed because of lack of consultation with electors in Chesterfield . It may in fact never take place as proposal of a Greater Yorkshire mayor instead has been resurrected .

    I wasn't aware that the 'Sheffield City Region' had been consulted with electors anywhere.

    If the local people had been consulted by referendum on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region' it would have been overwhelmingly rejected.

    Which is precisely why the local people weren't consulted on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region'.

    There was a consultation, we were asked for our views.

    I liked it because it realised that county borders are irrelevant when you're that close to a big city
    “But the plans were on display…”
    “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
    “That’s the display department.”
    “With a flashlight.”
    “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
    “So had the stairs.”
    “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
    “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
    This was online, on the telly, in the local papers, you couldn't miss it.
    I remember seeing a few letters in the local papers - saying that the idea was crap.

    If it was put to the local voters in a referendum it would be overwhelmingly rejected - which is why it isn't being out to the voters in a referendum.

    ' On 4 November 2004, voters in the North East rejected the proposal, in an all-postal ballot, by 77.9% to 22.1%, on a turnout of 48%. Every council area in the region had a majority for "no". The referendum was held in what was arguably Labour's strongest region within the United Kingdom.

    The defeat marked the end of the Labour Government's policy of devolution for England, and the other proposed referendums for the North West and for Yorkshire and the Humber were dropped indefinitely. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004
    Dom Cummings was involved in that referendum - from his account I'm guessing it must have been quite a campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,268
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    My very Muslim mother has asked me what a golden shower is & why should that stop Trump being President because a golden lift didn't?

    I don't envy you right now... :D
    I'm 38, with my parents I've had only had one conversation on the subject of sex, that was with my father as I departed to university, when he told me that as a good Muslim boy who was going to have an arranged marriage in a few years time, I should remain chaste and virginal at university.

    I hate Donald Trump right now.
    My family is the opposite. We get drunk and talk about EVERYTHING, from who has had the most partners to who has had the kinkiest sex.

    On the other hand, my 1st stepmother (of 3, now deceased) once tried to stab me on Boxing Day. So, you know: swings and roundabouts.
    Why did she try to stab you ?
    Because 1. I was a recovering heroin addict, 2. she was an alcoholic, 3. she had early brain cancer and 4. (relatedly) she was mad and 5. she felt I was giving my Dad an alibi for his philandering, and 6. MY FAMILY
    You really need to be followed 24/7 by a camera crew....
  • On Twitter - Lib Dems gain in Sunderland!
  • Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Report from man on the spot in Sunderland . Very close between Labour and Lib Dem

    Given the LibDems scored a staggering 4% last time in the ward, one fourteenth of the Labour vote, I would be staggered were they to win.

    So please colour me sceptical.
    Quite. If LAB and LD are close, it would be because of a collapse of Labour. I'd expect a Tory or UKIP win....
    'KIN HELL

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/819677648133636096
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Gosh. Didn't see that coming. Apols. Mark Senior - thought you were being optimistic!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Mortimer said:

    Gosh. Didn't see that coming. Apols. Mark Senior - thought you were being optimistic!
    Mark's always optimistic about the Lib Dems. But results over the next 3 years should amply reward that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    How bad was the non-attendance, and how widely reported? Must have been a factor!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,913
    I would like to apologise for Mark Senior for my scepticism.
  • Evidence that the North East is recoiling from Brexit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited January 2017
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh. Didn't see that coming. Apols. Mark Senior - thought you were being optimistic!
    Mark's always optimistic about the Lib Dems. But results over the next 3 years should amply reward that.
    I was not that optimistic but man on the spot from Newcastle Lib Dems was
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    gobsmacking from yellow peril in Sunderland. They will be in govt on these swings!
  • You man like Asquith and Churchill?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    LD 45%
    Lab 25% !
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    You're either Remain, or Leave. Labour need to pick a side and fast.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Thats a staggering result in Sunderland.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    LIB DEM SURGE.
    Polarisation of British politics into horny handed nationalists against liberal intellectuals?
  • Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    I would love it if something like this could happen in Copeland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Evidence that the North East is recoiling from Brexit?

    I'm proclaiming myself the N'golo Kante of Party members.
  • Brilliant result for the LibDems in Sunderland, but the narrative some people have been putting about to explain the LibDem revival might need a bit of tweaking:

    EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sunderland

    LDem 824
    Lab 458
    UKIP 343
    Con 184
    Green 23
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
    It's the SNP all over again. Lose referendum; fire up resentment at the result; win seats versus divided opposition.
  • 35.7% (thirty five point seven percent) Lab to Lib Dem swing in Sunderland!
  • Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It appears that the Sheffield City Regional Mayoral contest due to take place in May has been postponed because of lack of consultation with electors in Chesterfield . It may in fact never take place as proposal of a Greater Yorkshire mayor instead has been resurrected .

    I wasn't aware that the 'Sheffield City Region' had been consulted with electors anywhere.

    If the local people had been consulted by referendum on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region' it would have been overwhelmingly rejected.

    Which is precisely why the local people weren't consulted on whether they wanted a 'Sheffield City Region'.

    There was a consultation, we were asked for our views.

    I liked it because it realised that county borders are irrelevant when you're that close to a big city
    “But the plans were on display…”
    “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
    “That’s the display department.”
    “With a flashlight.”
    “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
    “So had the stairs.”
    “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
    “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
    This was online, on the telly, in the local papers, you couldn't miss it.
    I remember seeing a few letters in the local papers - saying that the idea was crap.

    If it was put to the local voters in a referendum it would be overwhelmingly rejected - which is why it isn't being out to the voters in a referendum.

    ' On 4 November 2004, voters in the North East rejected the proposal, in an all-postal ballot, by 77.9% to 22.1%, on a turnout of 48%. Every council area in the region had a majority for "no". The referendum was held in what was arguably Labour's strongest region within the United Kingdom.

    The defeat marked the end of the Labour Government's policy of devolution for England, and the other proposed referendums for the North West and for Yorkshire and the Humber were dropped indefinitely. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004
    Dom Cummings was involved in that referendum - from his account I'm guessing it must have been quite a campaign.
    I remember seeing some of it on TV and in the paper - as Dominic Cummings said it was very much an insurgency campaign. The entire political, economic, media and cultural establishment were in favour while a few outsiders with an inflatable white elephant led the No campaign.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
    It's the right strategy. Still hate 'em. Lots of Tories will be panicking as they are usually 2nd to the blues
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to apologise for Mark Senior for my scepticism.

    Careful. Rogerdamus will fight you for the wooden spoon!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    So how is that Corbyn relaunch going?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Lib Dems into 60/85 in Copeland
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899

    Brilliant result for the LibDems in Sunderland, but the narrative some people have been putting about to explain the LibDem revival might need a bit of tweaking:

    EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%)

    We've known for a while that the LD bounce has been stronger in Leave areas. My hunch is that if you're a Remainy type of person in a leave area then you're very firmly Remain and will be prepared to switch parties for your views.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Poor Tory outcome in Sunderland. But Labour look doomed. Good
  • Freggles said:

    LIB DEM SURGE.
    Polarisation of British politics into horny handed nationalists against liberal intellectuals?

    That's an interesting way of looking at it. Another way is to think of the compass needle no longer pointing North/South, but East/West. "Which side are you on?"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    You're either Remain, or Leave. Labour need to pick a side and fast.
    They've chosen LEAVE.
    It's a crowded market fighting over 52% of the electorate (probably less of a typical GE electorate).
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    You're either Remain, or Leave. Labour need to pick a side and fast.
    They've chosen LEAVE.
    And yet they have a leader who won't accept the one logical policy that follows from LEAVE. It's pretty funny really.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,913
    <blackrook on>This result in no way shows any LibDem recovery. Until the LibDems start winning parliamentary by-elections, scoring more than 10% in the polls getting 50+% in the polls, I will be extremely sceptical of those saying they are making any kind of comeback.<blackrook off>
  • Brilliant result for the LibDems in Sunderland, but the narrative some people have been putting about to explain the LibDem revival might need a bit of tweaking:

    EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%)

    We've known for a while that the LD bounce has been stronger in Leave areas. My hunch is that if you're a Remainy type of person in a leave area then you're very firmly Remain and will be prepared to switch parties for your views.
    Occam's Razor suggests the more prosaic explanation that local by-election results have zilch to do with the EU referendum.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Of course the ward may not be as strongly Leave as the council. Though looking at the previous result I'd be surprised if it wasn't pretty close to that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    You're either Remain, or Leave. Labour need to pick a side and fast.
    They've chosen LEAVE.
    It's a crowded market fighting over 52% of the electorate (probably less of a typical GE electorate).
    Sunderland cannot be kipper central, not a good omen for Nuttall.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems into 60/85 in Copeland

    Cllr election in council with massive Labour majority count for nothing. Copeland means something to Labour.
  • 35.7% (thirty five point seven percent) Lab to Lib Dem swing in Sunderland!

    LIBDEMS - SWINGIN' HERE!!!!
  • Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:


    There was a consultation, we were asked for our views.

    I liked it because it realised that county borders are irrelevant when you're that close to a big city

    “But the plans were on display…”
    “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
    “That’s the display department.”
    “With a flashlight.”
    “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
    “So had the stairs.”
    “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
    “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
    This was online, on the telly, in the local papers, you couldn't miss it.
    I remember seeing a few letters in the local papers - saying that the idea was crap.

    If it was put to the local voters in a referendum it would be overwhelmingly rejected - which is why it isn't being out to the voters in a referendum.

    ' On 4 November 2004, voters in the North East rejected the proposal, in an all-postal ballot, by 77.9% to 22.1%, on a turnout of 48%. Every council area in the region had a majority for "no". The referendum was held in what was arguably Labour's strongest region within the United Kingdom.

    The defeat marked the end of the Labour Government's policy of devolution for England, and the other proposed referendums for the North West and for Yorkshire and the Humber were dropped indefinitely. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004
    Dom Cummings was involved in that referendum - from his account I'm guessing it must have been quite a campaign.
    I remember seeing some of it on TV and in the paper - as Dominic Cummings said it was very much an insurgency campaign. The entire political, economic, media and cultural establishment were in favour while a few outsiders with an inflatable white elephant led the No campaign.
    ' Although backed by the Conservatives and UKIP, NESNO was careful to keep the politicians in the background.

    It concentrated instead on promoting the message that the assembly would be a costly job creation scheme for "political placemen", summed up by its slogan "Politicians Talk, We Pay". '

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3985047.stm
  • Brilliant result for the LibDems in Sunderland, but the narrative some people have been putting about to explain the LibDem revival might need a bit of tweaking:

    EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%)

    We've known for a while that the LD bounce has been stronger in Leave areas. My hunch is that if you're a Remainy type of person in a leave area then you're very firmly Remain and will be prepared to switch parties for your views.

    There was reporting a while back that the Mackems were thinking again about Brexit. Sharp fall in UKIP vote too it looks like.

  • Of course, the Lib Dem candidate in Sunderland has done a massive did-service to his/her fellow paper candidates for the elections in May. "No, don't worry, there's no chance of you wining here, we just need a name to put on the ballot paper....."
  • Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
    "And they'll be dancing in the streets of Sheffield Hallam tonight!"
    :lol:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Sunderland

    LDem 824
    Lab 458
    UKIP 343
    Con 184
    Green 23

    So, roughly, turnout about 50% of last time....

    This is reassuring.

    Panic over,

    Did manage to almost green up on Copeland, though. So not all bad.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Copeland looks very interesting.

    Still laying UKIP is the correct De Novo strategy given what we know now.
  • Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
    It's the SNP all over again. Lose referendum; fire up resentment at the result; win seats versus divided opposition.
    I'll never forget the morning of Tuesday 3rd of February. I had a meeting in my office, I became 'aware' of the first batch of Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls that were being released 24 hours later.

    I don't swear at all work, but I did then, and my staff just looked at me in shock.

    Just imagine my reaction if constituency polls show Lib Dems gain the likes of Sunderland South....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    Will the likes of Chuka Umunna look at this and think they'd be better off changing sides, and would the Lib Dems have them?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761

    Of course, the Lib Dem candidate in Sunderland has done a massive did-service to his/her fellow paper candidates for the elections in May. "No, don't worry, there's no chance of you wining here, we just need a name to put on the ballot paper....."

    I'm being pushed to stand as a paper candidate for LibDems in Barnes for 2018 local. My only fear in accepting is that I just might win it!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    That was always on the cards, Sunderland wasn't.
  • I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017

    Brilliant result for the LibDems in Sunderland, but the narrative some people have been putting about to explain the LibDem revival might need a bit of tweaking:

    EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%)

    Except I very much doubt turnout in the ward was anything like that for the referendum. It shouldn't be a surprise if there is currently some differential in enthusiasm.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mortimer said:

    Sunderland

    LDem 824
    Lab 458
    UKIP 343
    Con 184
    Green 23

    So, roughly, turnout about 50% of last time....

    This is reassuring.

    Panic over,

    Did manage to almost green up on Copeland, though. So not all bad.
    No last time was in fact May 2016 Lab 1229 UKIP 579 Con 277 LD 90 Green 59

    Nurse - The Brandy
    Next - The Nurse
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Barnesian said:

    Of course, the Lib Dem candidate in Sunderland has done a massive did-service to his/her fellow paper candidates for the elections in May. "No, don't worry, there's no chance of you wining here, we just need a name to put on the ballot paper....."

    I'm being pushed to stand as a paper candidate for LibDems in Barnes for 2018 local. My only fear in accepting is that I just might win it!
    I think you'll be a complete shoo in.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    LIB DEM SURGE.
    Polarisation of British politics into horny handed nationalists against liberal intellectuals?

    Not really, kippers came a distant third, outpaced by Corbyns Labour.
  • Simple explanation.

    LibDems have retrieved their 'nice party' image.

    After all the alternatives are:

    Con - sometimes necessary but never nice
    Lab - disaster zone and nasty with it
    Oth - weird and intense (at best) or dangerous and nasty (at worst)

    So what does someone who wants to signal how virtuous they are vote for in a byelection ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Sunderland

    LDem 824
    Lab 458
    UKIP 343
    Con 184
    Green 23

    So, roughly, turnout about 50% of last time....

    This is reassuring.

    Panic over,

    Did manage to almost green up on Copeland, though. So not all bad.
    No last time was in fact May 2016 Lab 1229 UKIP 579 Con 277 LD 90 Green 59

    Nurse - The Brandy
    Next - The Nurse
    Presumably that was a by election too?

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Barnesian said:

    Im told Sunderland is a massive LD majority .
    Copeland Conservatives and some posters here need to trust Lib Dem expectation management more !!!!!

    Something big is happening. Tectonic plates shifting?
    I wrote last year that 48% isn't enough to win a binary choice referendum but it is enough to win big under FPTP.

    Whether or not you agree with the policy, the Lib Dems are the only voice for the 48%
    It's the SNP all over again. Lose referendum; fire up resentment at the result; win seats versus divided opposition.
    I'll never forget the morning of Tuesday 3rd of February. I had a meeting in my office, I became 'aware' of the first batch of Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls that were being released 24 hours later.

    I don't swear at all work, but I did then, and my staff just looked at me in shock.

    Just imagine my reaction if constituency polls show Lib Dems gain the likes of Sunderland South....
    I remember that evening, when they were found lurking on Lord Ashcroft's server, 12 hours early. I backed every YES seat on the list to win the max permitted of £250, at prices from 5/4 to 4/1, or something like that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.

    What you are going to say to your mother about golden showers

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2017
    If Brexit were the issue propelling the LibDems to good results in locals, then the effect would show up to an even greater degree in national polls, where Brexit is massively more relevant. This isn't happening. Ergo, Brexit is not the issue propelling the LibDems to good results in locals.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,385
    edited January 2017

    I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.

    What you are going to say to your mother about golden showers

    I told her being a paragon of innocence and virtue, I didn't know exactly, but it was something sick and perverted that you'd expect from Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    SeanT said:

    Will the likes of Chuka Umunna look at this and think they'd be better off changing sides, and would the Lib Dems have them?

    He should, and they should. I'm a British patriot and I want a functioning Opposition, able to take power when the Tories fail (as they will)

    Also, 48% of Brits voted Remain and clearly many of them are not lunatic, red-trousered Remoaners - they need representing.

    The referendum has realigned our politics as the indyref did in Scotland, so our parties need to realign, too,

    We need

    A hard left socialist pro-Brexit party under Corbyn

    A soft left soft Remain Labour party under Chuka

    A fiercely pro-Remain LD party (possibly allied with the above)

    A soft right, soft Brexit Tory party under May

    A hard right 100% single source full fat extra caffeine Brexit UKIP under Farage & Sons
    Chuka would be very welcome.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SeanT said:

    Will the likes of Chuka Umunna look at this and think they'd be better off changing sides, and would the Lib Dems have them?

    He should, and they should. I'm a British patriot and I want a functioning Opposition, able to take power when the Tories fail (as they will)

    Also, 48% of Brits voted Remain and clearly many of them are not lunatic, red-trousered Remoaners - they need representing.

    The referendum has realigned our politics as the indyref did in Scotland, so our parties need to realign, too,

    We need

    A hard left socialist pro-Brexit party under Corbyn

    A soft left soft Remain Labour party under Chuka

    A fiercely pro-Remain LD party (possibly allied with the above)

    A soft right, soft Brexit Tory party under May

    A hard right 100% single source full fat extra caffeine Brexit UKIP under Farage & Sons
    Balls to all that, we just need a Conservative party and a Liberal party, just like the good old days. Mind you, if they were genuinely liberal I'd become a swing voter (unsurprisingly, perhaps, as I was one over Brexit).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Simple explanation.

    LibDems have retrieved their 'nice party' image.

    After all the alternatives are:

    Con - sometimes necessary but never nice
    Lab - disaster zone and nasty with it
    Oth - weird and intense (at best) or dangerous and nasty (at worst)

    So what does someone who wants to signal how virtuous they are vote for in a byelection ?

    Those famous "virtue-signalers" of suburban Sunderland?

    We metropolitan elites have spread our tentacles very far!

    As a matter of interest, how far is this ward from the Nissan plant? is this a local effect rather than something wider?
  • SeanT said:

    Will the likes of Chuka Umunna look at this and think they'd be better off changing sides, and would the Lib Dems have them?

    He should, and they should. I'm a British patriot and I want a functioning Opposition, able to take power when the Tories fail (as they will)

    Also, 48% of Brits voted Remain and clearly many of them are not lunatic, red-trousered Remoaners - they need representing.

    The referendum has realigned our politics as the indyref did in Scotland, so our parties need to realign, too,

    We need

    A hard left socialist pro-Brexit party under Corbyn

    A soft left soft Remain Labour party under Chuka

    A fiercely pro-Remain LD party (possibly allied with the above)

    A soft right, soft Brexit Tory party under May

    A hard right 100% single source full fat extra caffeine Brexit UKIP under Farage & Sons

    In other words, we need PR.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    In other sad news the keyboardist of Bronski Beat has died.
  • I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.

    What you are going to say to your mother about golden showers

    They are a type of orchid (IIRC), there's a name tag in one of the gardens in Regent's Park that says "Golden Showers".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncidium
  • Surely in a place like Sunderland it should have been UKIP capitalising on Labour's collapse.

    Many congrats to the LDs.
  • Anyone watching QT care to explain this?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/819678796248969216
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SO I guess this means the Lib Dems have gained the council in Three Rivers? Except everything you think is going to happens nowadays the opposite happens so a Lab GAIN nailed on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,698
    LDs having a mini SDP revival in council polls, Labour as low as it was under Foot, Tories being the governing party unlikely to win many council by-elections. In Sunderland it was probably a protest at the former Labour councillor's resignation for non-attendance and Labour voters going LD en masse as a protest vote
  • I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.

    What you are going to say to your mother about golden showers

    I told her being a paragon of innocence and virtue, I didn't know exactly, but it was something sick and perverted that you'd expect from Trump.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncidium
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Of course, the Lib Dem candidate in Sunderland has done a massive did-service to his/her fellow paper candidates for the elections in May. "No, don't worry, there's no chance of you wining here, we just need a name to put on the ballot paper....."

    I'm being pushed to stand as a paper candidate for LibDems in Barnes for 2018 local. My only fear in accepting is that I just might win it!
    I think you'll be a complete shoo in.
    In 1986, as Chairman of Barnes Liberals, I persuaded my wife to stand as a paper candidate. "Don't worry. No chance of being elected. Most Tory ward in Richmond". To her shock and horror she came top with 46.5% of the vote. She subsequently became deputy mayor. We had to buy a chalet to house the filing cabinets to hold all the paperwork.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,663
    As a former Labour member in the North East who left to join the Lib Dems after Corbyn's re-election i'm quite smug right now.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sunderland

    LDem 824
    Lab 458
    UKIP 343
    Con 184
    Green 23

    So, roughly, turnout about 50% of last time....

    This is reassuring.

    Panic over,

    Did manage to almost green up on Copeland, though. So not all bad.
    No last time was in fact May 2016 Lab 1229 UKIP 579 Con 277 LD 90 Green 59

    Nurse - The Brandy
    Next - The Nurse
    Presumably that was a by election too?

    No the annual 1/3rd election
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Anyone watching QT care to explain this?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/819678796248969216

    Not really watching it but he is sounding reasonably reasonable in the background. Must be after the Leigh nomination.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017

    I think I know what the morning thread is going to be about.

    What you are going to say to your mother about golden showers

    They are a type of orchid (IIRC), there's a name tag in one of the gardens in Regent's Park that says "Golden Showers".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncidium
    I had a Golden Showers in the garden once. Very tolerant neighbours...

    https://www.rhs.org.uk/Plants/119717/i-Rosa-i-Golden-Showers-(Cl)/Details
  • You'd have to be really churlish and/or partisan to deny that the Lib Dems are doing very well in local council by elections.

    The full locals in May are going to be fun.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Marine Le Pen was in Trump Tower today. She was on a, ahem, private trip. But she was "hosted" by a "friend" of Trump. Her spokesman said he didn't know who she'd be meeting with. Trump won't see her. But she caught the lift upwards. Et cetera.

    The guy sitting opposite her is her partner Louis Aliot. She is sitting next to George Lombardi. Who is the other man?

    image
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    Three rivers

    LD 61%
    Con 19%
  • Anyone watching QT care to explain this?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/819678796248969216

    Not really watching it but he is sounding reasonably reasonable in the background. Must be after the Leigh nomination.
    Cheers
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Gade Valley LD gain from Con and Gain overall control of council

    LDem 626
    Con 196
    Lab 119
    UKIP 69
    Green 18
  • You'd have to be really churlish and/or partisan to deny that the Lib Dems are doing very well in local council by elections.

    The full locals in May are going to be fun.

    When are you signing up, TSE? :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    Barnesian said:

    Three rivers

    LD 61%
    Con 19%

    No enthusiasm for the Tories even in an affluent South-East marginal Leave area.
This discussion has been closed.