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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theoretically at least TMay is the leader with biggest challenge keeping support together over BREXIT
While most pundits appear to have focused on Labour’s problems over BREXIT let’s not forgot that the Tory support base is even more divided. YouGov’s latest BREXIT tracker published yesterday had the above splits in party supporters view of the issue that’s set to define British politics.
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Oh
On topic, wouldn't it be a hoot if the LDs and UKIP topped the poll at the 2020 GE with the Conservatives and Labour scrapping for third ?
Apropos nothing much - petrol up again here in lowland East London to 115.9p a litre. We have in the past remarked on the correlation between fuel prices and Government support - if devaluation means higher pump prices...
On an unrelated, walked past Poundland in East Ham High Street - they have a sale but while some goods are down to 50p, there is now a 25p area. In I go eager for a bargain and what do I find - Christmas decorations, Christmas chocolate and Dog Advent Calendars.
Yes, that's right - the pinnacle of modern civilisation - a Dog Advent Calendar, yours for 25p. Brilliant, I thought but as I reached for one, I was hit by the cold wet fish of reality...
We don't have a dog....
Also, a chunk of 2015 Labour 'right to leave' voters will now appear in the UKIP allocation, based on current voting intention.
The historical evidence is that when Tory policy on Europe fails, the voters give them an almighty kicking.
"It would be interesting to see the Labour split sub-divided into ABC1C2DE."
Regional splits would be interesting too. Here in the NW, the seat went 58 -42 to Leave and there's a 20,000 plus Labour majority.
Unlikely.
Time for the vote to be severely restricted, to the educated, the high earners, and those who change their undies on a daily basis.
dɪsˈɪnt(ə)rɪstɪd/
adjective
adjective: disinterested
1.
not influenced by considerations of personal advantage.
"a banker is under an obligation to give disinterested advice"
synonyms: unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial, neutral, non-partisan, non-discriminatory, detached, uninvolved, objective, dispassionate, impersonal, clinical; More
open-minded, fair, just, equitable, balanced, even-handed, unselfish, selfless;
free from discrimination, with no axe to grind, without fear or favour
"she is offering disinterested advice"
antonyms: biased
2.
having or feeling no interest in something; uninterested.
"her father was so disinterested in her progress that he only visited the school once"
synonyms: uninterested, indifferent, incurious, unconcerned, unmoved, unresponsive, impassive, passive, detached, unfeeling, uncaring, unenthusiastic, lukewarm, bored, apathetic, blasé, nonchalant; informalcouldn't-care-less
"he looked at her with disinterested eyes"
antonyms: interested
Origin
"Time for the vote to be severely restricted, to the educated, the high earners, and those who change their undies on a daily basis."
Two out of three ain't bad. Do I get a vote?
Number of robots working in Amazon warehouses:
2016: 45,000
2015: 30K
2014: 15K
2013: 1K
—@JonErlichman #CES2017 https://t.co/TxZs3ybR4g
1. There are almost no Lib Dem Leavers elsewhere in the country
2. The rise in support in the SW has come from mopping up Remainers
3. The polling is a bit duff
4. The local election results are not transferring over to GE VI.
How difficult the Leave/Remain split is also depends on:
- How deeply the division is held by the respective camps within the support, and
- What the nature of the division is among *potential* voters for each party too i.e. is the party actively driving away potential supporters given their stance, and if so, will there be secondary effects resulting from underperformance in elections and polls?
Over time we will become more detached from the EU and our trade will look a lot more like global GDP shares with EU trade falling below 30% at which point the last ties will get cut. Hopefully.
What proportion of Tories would fight to the bitter end to stay in the EU? Probably not even 10%.
But knock yourself out about it, by all means.
It is almost as if European Policy is not important to some people, apart from rolling their eyes over straight banana stories in the Tabloids.
Hence the result.
https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/816318979132313600
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWYDHdRXPWE
LibDem or Labour attempts to specifically reverse the referendum and hold another plebiscite to reverse the Leave vote bring those individuals into disrepute. Attempts to get the people, let alone parliament, a say on the terms of 'leaving' are perfectly valid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uKobSevmbQ
http://fresques.ina.fr/de-gaulle/fiche-media/Gaulle00085/conference-de-presse-du-14-janvier-1963-sur-l-entree-de-la-grande-bretagne-dans-la-cee.html
Let's add Osborne to the list.
No sign of the much promised unity for new year - didn't we all hear Theresa May's new year message? Surely that's all that's needed to heal the wounds?
Two things that struck me over the past few days:
1) I don't think anyone else noticed the comments by the chair of the Royal College of GPs moaning about 7 day working for doctors: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jan/01/seven-day-nhs-plan-puts-weekday-surgeries-at-risk-warns-top-gp
In particular, saying that if a doctor works Sunday then they'll need a day off midweek. Am I the only person thinking this would be a great improvement? We have health issues in our family at the moment and I've had to have time off / work from home to get to several appointments in the past months. Also better for the economy surely? The doctors are going to have to improve their messages a lot if they want to make any impact on this.
2) I wonder if Sir Ivan Rogers would make a good Lib Dem parliamentary candidate? He's worked with Nick Clegg for years and he strikes me as having plenty of credibility. Don't blame him for going, and even with all my own doubts about Brexit I can't see how we benefit from someone who clearly doesn't believe in it in such a leading role. It doesn't matter how the replacement voted - it's whether their heart is in the negotiations and they can follow Goverment policy.
I suggest we all calm down a little on Brexit - simply because from here it all hinges on the renegotiations. If the Government can pull it out of the bag and come up with a deal that 70% can live with (assuming that would be 15% incandescent on both sides) then the world will move on. If however there becomes a clear majority against what's proposed then we are in the territory where we may need a terms referendum. We won't know which for a while, little we can do to influence at this stage, so I suggest we pour ourselves a good drink and discuss another topic for a while. If people like me could be persuaded to move on with the right deal, then we probably are worth waiting to see if the Government are as ready for this as their fans claim.
Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/
Maybe the Tories should just try acting like a government occasionally and leave the personal backbiting to th Opposition
Risible.
Does this mean I want to be part of a drift to a European State (which is where I see the direction of travel) - No. Others may want to, fair enough but I don't. At least June 23rd at long long last armed me with a pencil to actually clearly express that view for the first time.
Is "Britain/England/the UK" a "normal" European country? Yes and no. Where is I suppose? ( Is Russia "European" yes and/no too I guess). Geography both binds us (we are not next to Bermuda) and makes us different (we are an island). Our history has led us to have connections to the wider world to a greater extent than any comparable Continental country. There is Latin America sure, but there is no equivalent German Australia, no Polish Canada, Singapore does not speak Mandarin and Danish, Finns don't follow the Indian Premier League live, Donald Trump's tweets are instantly accessible to us in full nuance (not necessarily a comforting thing that), in a way that just isn't the case for the average Bulgarian on the Sofia omnibus. A US courtroom with a jury looks very familiar to us in a way that it might not to a Continental with a different legal system. In the 20th Century the institutions of state of all European countries bar a handful collapsed totally at some point. Ours didn't, hence I feel much of our bemusement at the political nature of the "Project". For them it was a safety net, for us, an unnecessary encumbrance.
I voted to give us the distance I feel there is deep down. Not a yawning gap, not a chasm, not an aggressive yah boo sucks, sod the lot of you over there, but a neighbourly distance. I like not quite being "them". Now things will get testy the way matters seem to be shaping up over the next couple of years, and I will err on the side of distance, if forced into a binary choice. I will not be cowed or browbeaten into being a footstool for Ever Closer Union if "rock hard or so soft it's pointless Brexit" is indeed forced upon us as the choice. From there though, hopefully, we could build bridges again amicably. But with a bit of distance please this time.
http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/newham_councillors_push_for_action_against_concrete_factories_1_4742697
I'm sure Germany will be happy to take those jobs....
......with 1million mainly young men added to their population overnight they need them.....
We have no idea if so-called "soft brexit" is even on the table until the negotiation starts.
Once we pass Article 50 and sit at the table we might discover that they are not actually interested in more than very basic negotiation (FTA in Goods) and basically tell us to piss off.
If the CJEU tells us that Article 50 is not revocable, which seems very likely, that will give us a choice of rock hard brexit, and rock hard brexit with a small figleaf.
said a bloke who's country capitulated to Germany in 1940 and still does
De Gaulle talking about our decliniing world influence is like a turkey saying he wouldnt want to be a goose round Christmas time.
So that would be 6th in the world then ?
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
#OTD 1972: London prepared to bid farewell to traffic jams, forever. Computers will have that mess sorted out in a jiffy! https://t.co/LNIkke51It
Where presumably they are all employed as vibrant baristas, serving sustainable lattes to each other all day.
Tell them it's concrete - or nuclear waste storage. They'll soon get to love the look of concrete....